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Old 25th April 2016, 11:29 AM   #1
PartSkeptic
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Is 2016 the start of the big die-off?

Is 2016 the start of the big die-off? I think it might be. Is God involved? If he exists, he would have to be.

This article gives celebrity stats, and attempts an explanation.

It is too soon to get a general trend in the overall numbers globally, but are we beginning to experience an underlying “silent” virus that is weakening immune systems and accelerating “normal” causes of deaths? Or is toxic overload catching up with mankind?

Quote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-36108133
Why so many celebrities have died in 2016
22 April 2016

It now seems rare for a week to pass without a significant celebrity death being reported - from David Bowie in the second week of January, to actor Alan Rickman a week later, to comedian Victoria Wood and Prince this week.

"Enough, 2016" and a more vulgar alternative are phrases people are uttering more and more regularly. So is this wave of celebrity deaths the new normal?
The answer is yes, according to the BBC's obituary editor Nick Serpell, who ought to know about such things.

…It's a jump from only five between January and late March 2012 to a staggering 24 in the same period this year - an almost five-fold increase, according to research by the BBC Radio 4's More or Less programme.

…This all invites the question: why?
There are a few reasons, Nick Serpell says.
"People who started becoming famous in the 1960s are now entering their 70s and are starting to die," he says.

"There are also more famous people than there used to be," he says. "In my father or grandfather's generation, the only famous people really were from cinema - there was no television.

These reasons only explain the genral trend, not the sudden jump in from 12 (2015) to 24 (2016). I could just be a bad year (an anomaly), or the start of something really bad.
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Old 25th April 2016, 11:32 AM   #2
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Are you being facetious?
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Old 25th April 2016, 11:35 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by RogueKitten View Post
Are you being facetious?
No, he really looks like that.

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Old 25th April 2016, 11:36 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Is 2016 the start of the big die-off? I think it might be. Is God involved? If he exists, he would have to be.
And this new trend towards single-ply toilet paper? Is god involved? If he exists, he would...


Oh dear, I find myself bored.
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Old 25th April 2016, 11:38 AM   #5
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Which part of you is sceptical, PartSkeptic? And how big is that part? Because anyone with a sceptical bone in their body wouldn't ask such a silly question, with the begged-questions and the false dichotomy being only a trivial part of the wrongness of the OP.
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Old 25th April 2016, 11:41 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Is 2016 the start of the big die-off? I think it might be. Is God involved? If he exists, he would have to be.

This article gives celebrity stats, and attempts an explanation.

It is too soon to get a general trend in the overall numbers globally, but are we beginning to experience an underlying “silent” virus that is weakening immune systems and accelerating “normal” causes of deaths? Or is toxic overload catching up with mankind?




These reasons only explain the genral trend, not the sudden jump in from 12 (2015) to 24 (2016). I could just be a bad year (an anomaly), or the start of something really bad.
And the same year roughly in which you surmise you yourself might not survive. Perhaps this way, your unsupported anticipation of your own demise this year (or thereabouts) must be part of something .... BIG.
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Old 25th April 2016, 11:44 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
It is too soon to get a general trend in the overall numbers globally, but are we beginning to experience an underlying “silent” virus that is weakening immune systems and accelerating “normal” causes of deaths?
Life Expectancy Hits New High

Thats a heckuva virus
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Old 25th April 2016, 11:51 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Is 2016 the start of the big die-off? I think it might be. Is God involved? If he exists, he would have to be.

This article gives celebrity stats, and attempts an explanation.

It is too soon to get a general trend in the overall numbers globally, but are we beginning to experience an underlying “silent” virus that is weakening immune systems and accelerating “normal” causes of deaths? Or is toxic overload catching up with mankind?




These reasons only explain the genral trend, not the sudden jump in from 12 (2015) to 24 (2016). I could just be a bad year (an anomaly), or the start of something really bad.
Or, with demographic shifts we have an older population. According to Terry Prachet, time is a drug the overdose of which is always fatal.
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Old 25th April 2016, 12:42 PM   #9
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The article starts by comparing the five "celebrity" deaths in the first three months of 2015 with 24 deaths in the same period of 2016. But later, it points out that the Daily Telegraph states that the first three months of 2015 held only 30 celeb deaths compared with 38 in the first three months of 2014 and 75 so far in 2016, which implies that though there are hugely more this year, 2015 was a particularly light year.

The article also doesn't include an explanation as to why the BBC counts 24 celeb deaths in the first three months of this year whereas the Telegraph states 75 for an only slightly longer period - clearly the BBC and the Daily Telegraph have different definitions of what counts as a celeb death.

The first thing I'd ask myself when assessing whether this is a bad year to be famous is: are the 38 deaths in Jan-Mar 2014, the 30 in Jan-Mar 2015 and the 75 so far in 2016 all at the same 'level' of celebrity, or are more people being put into that category of "celebrity" this year? If (for example) Zaha Hadid had died in 2014, would she be in the celeb death category as she was this year?

I run a celebrity death pool on another forum, and so far our 2016 death pool thread has noted 31 celeb deaths, an enormous number but fewer than half of the 75 claimed by the Daily Telegraph article. So I wonder whether people who wouldn't have got a mention in the national or international media in previous years are now being classed as celebrities. I haven't yet checked my threads for 2015 and 2014 to see if our numbers matched either the BBC article's or the Telegraph's numbers.

As for attributing these deaths to the actions of a god or a virus - both of these ideas seem to me to be remarkably unlikely given that life expectancies are increasing, and that the definition of celebrity death seems quite moveable depending on what point a particular media outlet wants to suggest.

Some years we get more snow, some years we get more sunshine, some years I like more new music, some years I like less. I don't expect every year to be the same in terms of weather or music or births or deaths within my acquaintances, so why would anyone expect a list of celebrities who die within an artificially denoted period of time (a year that just happens to start on January 1st) to be similar numbers every year, especially since the rise of different types of entertainment means that celebrity means much more than "film star/famous politician"?
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Old 25th April 2016, 01:10 PM   #10
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Winter was a little extended this year, and hence time spent indoors exchanging diseases?

How big did the database of "celebrities" grow last year? If it doubled...

I expect more per year as Hollywood grew 40-70 years ago, but that should be small and incremental.
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Old 25th April 2016, 01:31 PM   #11
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Define "celebrity" the right way and you can prove anything you want.

It's the same fribble as the "Mars Effect" which claimed that sports champions tended to be born with some astrological rubbish involving Mars. Michael Jordan wasn't counted as a "sports champion." Coincidentally, his charts did not show the Mars Effect.
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Old 25th April 2016, 01:34 PM   #12
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I was sure he was joking...like...Bowie died of cancer, is that now a virus? And surely Bowie and Prince are an entirely different class of "celebrity" than Chyna.
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Old 25th April 2016, 01:36 PM   #13
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Have we reached Peak Celebrity?

We must not fall behind in the celebrity gap!
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Old 25th April 2016, 04:51 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Donn View Post
And this new trend towards single-ply toilet paper? Is god involved? If he exists, he would...


Oh dear, I find myself bored.
Were the celebrities who died using double-ply or single-ply?? Scientists want to know!
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Old 25th April 2016, 05:53 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by RogueKitten View Post
I was sure he was joking...like...Bowie died of cancer, is that now a virus? And surely Bowie and Prince are an entirely different class of "celebrity" than Chyna.

You need to read what I wrote a bit more carefully. People who have HIV/AIDS do not die of "AIDS". They die of other diseases like TB.

Quote:
http://hivinsite.ucsf.edu/insite?page=pb-diag-04-00
HIV weakens your immune system, leaving you vulnerable to certain infections and cancers. The infections are called "opportunistic" because they take the opportunity to attack you when your immune system is weak. The cancers are called "AIDS related" because they appear mostly in people who have advanced, later-stage HIV infection, known as AIDS.

Most people who die of AIDS do not die from the virus itself. They die from opportunistic infections (or "OIs"). Often, people are infected with the OI long before they become infected with HIV. Their functioning immune system keeps the OI under control, so they don't have any symptoms of the infection. Once HIV damages their immune system enough, the OI becomes uncontrolled and makes them sick. If you have HIV, you can take antibiotics to prevent the OI from causing disease. For example, one common opportunistic infection is Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (also called PCP). Most people already have the microbe that causes PCP in their body, but it doesn't make them sick. An HIV-positive person, however, may need to take antibiotics to keep from getting very sick.

Systemic fungi cause cancer, and yet the fungus is hardly ever diagnosed as the primary cause.

New pathogens are coming into existence all the time. And at a faster rate it seems. The possibility of a new virus/pathogen that spreads silently is not improbable.
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Old 25th April 2016, 05:58 PM   #16
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My friend, I read your post. I am sorry, but this sounds like a nut burger conspiracy theory. How would a virus know if someone is famous, even if you could define "celebrity" in a workable way? How could "celebrities" in different countries not only all contract this fame seeking virus, but it be kept secret from the hundreds of medical professionals these people seek out? These are the objections I have right off the top of my head, if I am pressed I can certainly come up with more.
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Old 25th April 2016, 05:59 PM   #17
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At this rate, '80s era pop stars will be entirely extinct by 2050. But you can help. For less than the price of a venti caramel macchiato, you can symbolically adopt a Pet Shop Boy, or a Bangle, or a Man Without Hat.

Thank you. Won't you?
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Old 25th April 2016, 06:04 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Ray Brady View Post
At this rate, '80s era pop stars will be entirely extinct by 2050. But you can help. For less than the price of a venti caramel macchiato, you can symbolically adopt a Pet Shop Boy, or a Bangle, or a Man Without Hat.

Thank you. Won't you?
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Old 25th April 2016, 07:16 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by The Greater Fool View Post
Have we reached Peak Celebrity?

We must not fall behind in the celebrity gap!
I have a short list to offer should we need to catch up. It's not alphabetized, but Bieber is high on the list.
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Old 25th April 2016, 07:18 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post


Systemic fungi cause cancer, and yet the fungus is hardly ever diagnosed as the primary cause.
Bull. Hot, wet, steaming pile of bull.


But carry on. I'm sure you have sources to shut me up.
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Old 25th April 2016, 09:57 PM   #21
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I think it's to be expected, we always knew that the "post war baby boom" would reveal the other side of the coin at some stage.
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Old 25th April 2016, 10:32 PM   #22
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In an era when Kim Kardashian's arse can become a bigger "celebrity" in popular culture than Einstein ever was, the celebrity death rate is certainly going to skyrocket because there will be so many more of them to start with.

ETA. I hope KK's arse does sag and die a horrible death shortly. Perhaps have to be assigned to industrial spandex permanently.
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Old 25th April 2016, 11:30 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Ray Brady View Post
At this rate, '80s era pop stars will be entirely extinct by 2050. But you can help. For less than the price of a venti caramel macchiato, you can symbolically adopt a Pet Shop Boy, or a Bangle, or a Man Without Hat.

Thank you. Won't you?
Ha! Great stuff.
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Old 25th April 2016, 11:35 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
......Systemic fungi cause cancer.........
Utter tosh. When you go looking for references, make sure you cover both of these points: firstly, that ALL cancers have the same causal agent (that will interest my mother who is dying of mesothelioma, the asbestos cancer), and secondly, that there is such a thing as systemic fungi.

I repeat, which part of you is sceptical, PartSkeptic? Is it your little toe?
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Old 26th April 2016, 12:40 AM   #25
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I think the following is important from Newsthump.com (cannot link to the story itself because the title contains a naughty word)..

http://newsthump.com/

Quote:
Level 5 safety measures are being placed upon musician Dave Grohl.

The lead singer of the Foo Fighters and also something to do with Nirvana, Dave Grohl now ranks among the ever-shrinking number of great musicians still in existence.

“So he’s not allowed out of the house,” confirmed music preservationist, Simon Williams.

“At the rate 2016 is going, he wouldn’t make it thirty feet out the door without a piano falling on him, which would be tragic, considering he’s a guitar player.

“He’s already broken his leg in one accident, we can’t take any more chances.
and ends with.....

Quote:
Music fan, Elizabeth King, said, “It is imperative that Dave Grohl survives this year.

“He must be locked in the house, given a Netflix subscription and told to wait for further instructions.

“Otherwise, we’re just left with Justin Bieber, Kanye West and Kesha. Honestly, I’d rather shag a wasp than listen to them.”
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Old 26th April 2016, 12:56 AM   #26
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I wish we were at the onset of the End Of Times and that our Mister Angry God was eliminating people , based on some discernible pattern .
However , I suspect that even he could find something more interesting than picking on a bunch of so called western celebrities whose only likely crimes were making strange sounds between bouts of drug taking .
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Old 26th April 2016, 01:46 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by Malbec View Post
I wish we were at the onset of the End Of Times and that our Mister Angry God was eliminating people , based on some discernible pattern .
However , I suspect that even he could find something more interesting than picking on a bunch of so called western celebrities whose only likely crimes were making strange sounds between bouts of drug taking .
Playing those LPs backwards again?
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Old 26th April 2016, 02:07 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
In an era when Kim Kardashian's arse can become a bigger "celebrity" in popular culture than Einstein ever was, the celebrity death rate is certainly going to skyrocket because there will be so many more of them to start with.
Perhaps Andy Warhol's quote needs expanding. In the future, everybody will be world famous for fifteen minutes, and then die.

Dave
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Old 26th April 2016, 02:25 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Perhaps Andy Warhol's quote needs expanding. In the future, everybody will be world famous for fifteen minutes, and then die.

Dave
Fifteen minutes and then flame.
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Old 26th April 2016, 04:05 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Is 2016 the start of the big die-off?
No.
Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
I think it might be.
You are wrong.
Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Is God involved?
Nope.
Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
If he exists, he would have to be.
But as no gods exist the question is moot.
Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
This article gives celebrity stats, and attempts an explanation.
Yes and it explains the increase in "celebrity" deaths quite well. No nonsensical speculation about virii, gods or similar nonsense needed.
Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
It is too soon to get a general trend in the overall numbers globally, but
But that's not going to stop you inventing a cause and linking it to your "god".

Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
are we beginning to experience an underlying “silent” virus that is weakening immune systems and accelerating “normal” causes of deaths? Or is toxic overload catching up with mankind?
Or is it a statistical blip?
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Old 26th April 2016, 04:08 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Systemic fungi cause cancer, and yet the fungus is hardly ever diagnosed as the primary cause.
Utter rubbish.
10 persistent cancer myths debunked

I suggest you learn before posting such crap.
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Old 26th April 2016, 04:45 AM   #32
turingtest
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Originally Posted by RogueKitten View Post
My friend, I read your post. I am sorry, but this sounds like a nut burger conspiracy theory. How would a virus know if someone is famous, even if you could define "celebrity" in a workable way? How could "celebrities" in different countries not only all contract this fame seeking virus, but it be kept secret from the hundreds of medical professionals these people seek out? These are the objections I have right off the top of my head, if I am pressed I can certainly come up with more.
Good questions, RK, especially that first one (the one I've highlighted). In a sane world, that would be enough; I can see PS, though, answering with something like "well, god directs it, and tells it where to strike, duh." It's almost impossible to argue with someone who simply makes god the ultimate conspirator like that- he's invested his conspiracy with all the power it will ever need, and his "theory" with all the answer it will ever stand on.
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Old 26th April 2016, 05:41 AM   #33
Magrat
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Originally Posted by turingtest View Post
Good questions, RK, especially that first one (the one I've highlighted). In a sane world, that would be enough; I can see PS, though, answering with something like "well, god directs it, and tells it where to strike, duh." It's almost impossible to argue with someone who simply makes god the ultimate conspirator like that- he's invested his conspiracy with all the power it will ever need, and his "theory" with all the answer it will ever stand on.
Thanks TT. This is basically "god of the gaps" gone wild.

Step 1: invent an imaginary problem
Step 2: squeeze and squish data to fit what you decided is happening
Step 3: invent a cause for this not-problem, preferably one nobody has ever heard of
Step 4: claim "god" is directing it if anyone doubts your not-data
Step 5: market line of high fashion tin foil hats
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Last edited by Magrat; 26th April 2016 at 05:43 AM. Reason: Spelling...as usual
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Old 26th April 2016, 06:03 AM   #34
turingtest
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Originally Posted by RogueKitten View Post
Thanks TT. This is basically "god of the gaps" gone wild.

Step 1: invent an imaginary problem
Step 2: squeeze and squish data to fit what you decided is happening
Step 3: invent a cause for this not-problem, preferably one nobody has ever heard of
Step 4: claim "god" is directing it if anyone doubts your not-data
Step 5: market line of high fashion tin foil hats
The thing to remember about both CT and religion is that neither one is rocket science, no matter how often both try to assume the trappings; so, as I like to say, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to get right what it didn't take one to get wrong.

And, since I'm also not a celebrity, though I am about Prince's age (actually a little older), I guess I can quit worrying about god targeting me with whatever he hit Prince with. Comfort in anonymity, yay...
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Old 27th April 2016, 03:44 AM   #35
PartSkeptic
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Utter rubbish.
10 persistent cancer myths debunked

I suggest you learn before posting such crap.

You should read my post more carefully.

Quote:
Systemic fungi cause cancer, and yet the fungus is hardly ever diagnosed as the primary cause.
A slight re-phrase "can cause" as in "can be a primary cause".

I have systemic fungal infection so I have researched it thoroughly. My late-wife developed cancer and died because she also had systemic fungal infection.

The fungus also causes skin growths which look like benign growths (cancers) but can be cured with anti-fungal creams.

Your myth site: I agree with the other myths but:

Myth 3: ‘Acidic’ diets cause cancer (Acid can cause ulcers and inflammation which in turn can be a contributing factor - a neutral diet helps)
Myth 4: Cancer has a sweet tooth (Yes, it does. One of the latest scientific cures deliver the anti-cancer drug to the cancer cells using a glucose-like molecule to concentrate the drug in the cancer cells)
Myth 5: Cancer is a fungus – and sodium bicarbonate is the cure (Cancer is not a fungus, but internal fungus can be a huge contributing factor by causing inflammation)

I have been on Itraconazole for nearly 4 years, and keep trying to stop taking it. Before taking it, my levels of C-reactive protein were very high showing that I had high levels of inflammation.

Quote:
http://www.in-pharmatechnologist.com...clinical-tests
The common antifungal treatment Itraconazole has shown the most promise for prostate, lung and basal cell carcinoma.
Quote:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0000780/
Ketoconazole is also sometimes used to treat … … prostate cancer
Quote:
http://www.fungalinfectiontrust.org/about.html
Also, several fungi produce dangerous substances called toxins, which if eaten via contaminated food - can be fatal to man and other animals. This is particularly a problem in developing countries where crop contamination can result in severe famine - or if eaten gives rise to various forms of cancer including liver cancer.
Quote:
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/colon...article_em.htm
…Also at high risk for developing colon cancers are people with any of the following: … Ulcerative colitis or Crohn colitis (Crohn disease)
…Studies do indicate that exercise and a diet rich in fruits and vegetables can help prevent colon cancer.
…nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs such as aspirin may reduce colorectal cancer risk
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Old 27th April 2016, 04:00 AM   #36
PartSkeptic
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Or is it a statistical blip?

Possibly. And what if it is not? Do the deaths of non-celebs get the news and get counted?

When the Spanish flu epidemic broke out, it too was initially dismissed.

Quote:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK22148/
When influenza first appeared, officials routinely insisted at first it was only ordinary influenza, not the Spanish flu. As the epidemic exploded, officials almost daily assured the public that the worst was over.
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Old 27th April 2016, 04:15 AM   #37
fromdownunder
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Possibly. And what if it is not? Do the deaths of non-celebs get the news and get counted?

This works for me! After all:

7,418,450,557 Current World Population



46,241,066 Births this year
19,364,497 Deaths this year



345,939 Births today
144,870 Deaths today


26,876,569
Net population growth this year



201,069 Net population growth today

Norm
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Old 27th April 2016, 04:30 AM   #38
Malbec
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Is 2016 the start of the big die-off? I think it might be. Is God involved? If he exists, he would have to be.

.
If by God , you allude to Rockefeller et al , the matter has been in hand for some time .
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Old 27th April 2016, 05:07 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Malbec View Post
If by God , you allude to Rockefeller et al , the matter has been in hand for some time .
You mean the average longer lifespans and better access to food resources are all part of the master plan to kill us off while making huge profits?

Damn, that organization has a weird way of carrying out a big die-off.
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Old 27th April 2016, 05:09 AM   #40
John Nowak
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Possibly. And what if it is not? Do the deaths of non-celebs get the news and get counted?
Sigh. No, nobody keeps track of global demographics.

Protip: the first indication is "running out of mortuary space."
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