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Tags cars

View Poll Results: Driverless cars will become mandatory by 2050
Yes they will 30 24.39%
No they won't 56 45.53%
It will take longer 20 16.26%
Your poll options suck 35 28.46%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 123. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 28th March 2017, 07:56 AM   #361
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Originally Posted by Joey McGee View Post
That's crap there will always be some *********** crazy person on meth out there on the roads screwing up traffic no matter how well your sales pitch or product is, you're not living in the real world man, in 100 years those mass murderers are going to be making mini atom bombs in their basements this whole worrying about controlling access to public resources is gonna seem so quaint...
And yet, I'm right.

You can't force people to do the right thing, you have to coax them. Make the right thing attractive and they will pay a premium for it.
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Old 28th March 2017, 11:29 AM   #362
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Originally Posted by Joey McGee View Post
2050 is a long time away is it not? Do you have arguments against the consensus that it is possible at that time?
"Possible" and "probable" are often a long way apart. Advances in AI and computer technology can make anything possible.
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Old 28th March 2017, 12:57 PM   #363
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
And yet, I'm right.

You can't force people to do the right thing, you have to coax them. Make the right thing attractive and they will pay a premium for it.
Actually, we CAN enforce driverless cars, we can simply pass laws and take any vehicle off the road that isn't connected to the system. Here's my sales pitch, end 1 million deaths a year and many trillions of dollars of wasted opportunity with one simple law. All cars have to be driverless. Sure call up the experts on influence and negotiation and debunking (Cialdini, Ury, Lewandowsky) and have them consult on our campaign but the central selling points, I don't get how you really have to dress that up... more like you have to first just make people not stuck up ignorant know it alls, so yeah, education... 2050
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Old 28th March 2017, 01:01 PM   #364
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Originally Posted by rwguinn View Post
"Possible" and "probable" are often a long way apart. Advances in AI and computer technology can make anything possible.
That's a cop out, we have the technology consensus that it is going to be possible eventually, but let's say we didn't and we only had some rational hope... the moral and economic argument is strong enough is that this is where we should be placing our chips... there are only half-arguments against my position, no one seems to be able to go the distance...
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Old 28th March 2017, 03:07 PM   #365
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Originally Posted by Joey McGee View Post
Actually, we CAN enforce driverless cars, we can simply pass laws and take any vehicle off the road that isn't connected to the system. Here's my sales pitch, end 1 million deaths a year and many trillions of dollars of wasted opportunity with one simple law. All cars have to be driverless. Sure call up the experts on influence and negotiation and debunking (Cialdini, Ury, Lewandowsky) and have them consult on our campaign but the central selling points, I don't get how you really have to dress that up... more like you have to first just make people not stuck up ignorant know it alls, so yeah, education... 2050
This wont be overnight. More and more drivers are operating cars with driver assistance technologies that will have them doing less and less over time. We will get to see how early adopters they share the road with become better and better. When the price is right there are many people who will happily hand over the driving tasks to AI drivers. As some of us get older we may lose the ability to safely operate a vehicle but still enjoy the freedom to travel thanks to the new tech.

While there may be roads exluded to human drivers, I am sure there will remain places where some can exercise their passion for driving.
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Old 28th March 2017, 03:29 PM   #366
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
This wont be overnight.
I am done being told this
Quote:
More and more drivers are operating cars with driver assistance technologies that will have them doing less and less over time. We will get to see how early adopters they share the road with become better and better. When the price is right there are many people who will happily hand over the driving tasks to AI drivers. As some of us get older we may lose the ability to safely operate a vehicle but still enjoy the freedom to travel thanks to the new tech.
Pretty picture, I prefer a strict law that totally bans all voluntary driving on public roads once an elected task force decides it is feasible.

Quote:
While there may be roads exluded to human drivers, I am sure there will remain places where some can exercise their passion for driving.
I always wanted to drive a charger on sand dunes
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Old 28th March 2017, 03:38 PM   #367
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And what happens when the technology fails? If it fails it most likely won't be just one random vehicle. I've been reading about the next technology wave called "the internet of things" but so far they haven't figured out how to protect it from viruses or terrorists attacks so driverless cars are way in the future unless someone solves those problems.
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Old 28th March 2017, 03:40 PM   #368
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Existential, I'm not articulate enough to elaborate.
I'm confused, but okay.
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Old 28th March 2017, 03:41 PM   #369
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We are already in a transition here. Aircraft have been in such a transition longer. When do you bring in the law? Do you do it when such cars have become universally affordable and surpass the abilities of human drivers? That will be after many years of transition have occured anyway.
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Old 28th March 2017, 03:42 PM   #370
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Originally Posted by Jodie View Post
And what happens when the technology fails?
We end the space program and cross "Mars" off of the list of places to visit.
Quote:
If it fails it most likely won't be just one random vehicle. I've been reading about the next technology wave called "the internet of things" but so far they haven't figured out how to protect it from viruses or terrorists attacks so driverless cars are way in the future unless someone solves those problems.
You don't say!? Man why don't they talk about this on Fox and Friends? That's scary.
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Old 28th March 2017, 03:47 PM   #371
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
We are already in a transition here. Aircraft have been in such a transition longer. When do you bring in the law? Do you do it when such cars have become universally affordable and surpass the abilities of human drivers? That will be after many years of transition have occured anyway.
So because government regulation is a difficult profession we should give up?
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Old 28th March 2017, 03:47 PM   #372
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Well your claim is 2050 or sooner. I think that's a bit optimistic.
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Old 28th March 2017, 04:02 PM   #373
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
We are already in a transition here. Aircraft have been in such a transition longer.
Aircraft do not compare. Other thank flocks of geese or a stupid pilot everyone on that plane is going to survive. Who is running this workshop?
Quote:
When do you bring in the law? Do you do it when such cars have become universally affordable and surpass the abilities of human drivers? That will be after many years of transition have occured anyway.
Just whatever. Will I make it illegal for people to drive their 1975 pickup on public roads? Yes. We don't let horse drawn carriages on the turnpike right? Give me a break.
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Old 28th March 2017, 04:05 PM   #374
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They tell me, a low income person for my whole life, that my plan will hurt low income people, then tell me how much you understand about the plethora of think tank studies on auto cars
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Old 28th March 2017, 04:30 PM   #375
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Originally Posted by Jodie View Post
Well your claim is 2050 or sooner. I think that's a bit optimistic.
I think it's pessimistic.
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Old 28th March 2017, 04:38 PM   #376
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Anyone who is on my side will really appreciate the soul food Thomas Friedman has served up for us https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuF2JKeM2CY
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Old 28th March 2017, 04:42 PM   #377
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Originally Posted by Joey McGee View Post
So because government regulation is a difficult profession we should give up?
How is that a charitable interpretation of what I have said? How about you answer the fair questions and we have a discusion?
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Old 28th March 2017, 04:43 PM   #378
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Originally Posted by rwguinn View Post
"Possible" and "probable" are often a long way apart. Advances in AI and computer technology can make anything possible.
I just wanted to admit that your point was right and well made and I should have said "this is how things work now , or , thinks are considered differently now, or this is how my insane brain considers them, thank you for you input in any case
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Old 28th March 2017, 04:48 PM   #379
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Originally Posted by Joey McGee View Post
Aircraft do not compare. Other thank flocks of geese or a stupid pilot everyone on that plane is going to survive. Who is running this workshop?Just whatever. Will I make it illegal for people to drive their 1975 pickup on public roads? Yes. We don't let horse drawn carriages on the turnpike right? Give me a break.
Aircraft compare in that they have been in a longer transition from total human control towards human pilots being system monitors and you would think disapearing altogether.

My question was about what point you would have this happen. Remember that this questioning was in the context of your bemoaning claims that this technology will be eased onto our roads and transportation cultures.
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Old 28th March 2017, 04:55 PM   #380
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
Aircraft compare in that they have been in a longer transition from total human control towards human pilots being system monitors and you would think disapearing altogether.
Pretty terribly executed argument from authority ew

Quote:
My question was about what point you would have this happen. Remember that this questioning was in the context of your bemoaning claims that this technology will be eased onto our roads and transportation cultures.
At what moment would I pluck the ceremonial key from the hand of the plebe ahhhh ya lost me.
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Old 28th March 2017, 04:57 PM   #381
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Waste of time.
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Old 28th March 2017, 04:57 PM   #382
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I could be dumb or lacking of wit... sorry
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Old 28th March 2017, 05:00 PM   #383
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I guess I could say honestly that I would prefer to take the power away from drivers directly and not have some transition period, yes, I think we should end drivers licenses right in the middle of their term and just take them away, no grandfathering no nothing
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Old 28th March 2017, 05:02 PM   #384
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Against all previous legislative tradition, just take it away. 1 million lives a year, we have the technology. How about YOU tell ME why that's a bad idea. Go.
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Old 28th March 2017, 05:05 PM   #385
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Convoluted arguments about how this goes against tradition or how it would inconvenience certain people.... Uhm yeah it goes against the tradition of all of my family and it is going to be a big inconvenience at thanksgiving don't play that game
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Old 28th March 2017, 05:15 PM   #386
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"Because we've always done it this way" is never a good reason to continue to do something that way.
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Old 28th March 2017, 05:17 PM   #387
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I predict driverless cars will be illegal within 35 years.
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Old 28th March 2017, 05:24 PM   #388
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
"Because we've always done it this way" is never a good reason to continue to do something that way.
It's actually an excellent reason.
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Old 28th March 2017, 05:28 PM   #389
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
I predict driverless cars will be illegal within 35 years.
Why do you think that?
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Old 28th March 2017, 06:41 PM   #390
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Nm
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Old 28th March 2017, 07:26 PM   #391
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Originally Posted by marplots View Post
It's actually an excellent reason.
No, it isn't. It's one of the worst reasons.
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Old 29th March 2017, 02:22 AM   #392
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
"Because we've always done it this way" is never a good reason to continue to do something that way.
Originally Posted by marplots View Post
It's actually an excellent reason.
Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
No, it isn't. It's one of the worst reasons.
It does presume that the reason we have always done it this way is because we are largely satisfied with the results and haven't thought up a better way.

But even then, heuristics play a valuable role, especially in matters where you get equivalent results from multiple methods. Someone who rejects the tried and true habitually and offhandedly risks "analysis paralysis" and other ills. The onus is on the creative innovator, not the traditionalist.

On the other hand, I've been thinking about rearranging my keyboard to see if I can find an ordering I like better. I figure I can swap two keys a day and will work my way through all the possible binary swaps in about 3 billion years.
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Old 29th March 2017, 02:30 AM   #393
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The only reason that pilots still pilot airplanes is that people would freak out if they knew there was no one sitting there.

Quote:
He says that in a debate at the society earlier this year, with pilots, engineers, scientists and airline representatives debating autonomous planes, the motion ‘there will be no need for pilots in 40 years’ was carried by approximately 60 votes to 40.
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2016...tless-airliner

It's more of a moral issue than a technical issue at this point. There are three broad categories of naysayer.

1) Hack technologist: playing the devil's advocate for something to do and utilize that rusty half-knowledge you have up there.

2) Get of off my lawn grumpy types who just get a kick out of putting the damper on youthful optimism

3) People who really care about who will get hurt by this economically but have never read a think tank study in their life and probably get everything they know from their local left/right leaning newspaper.

It's fun isn't it?
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Old 29th March 2017, 03:09 AM   #394
applecorped
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A root canal is more fun.
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Old 29th March 2017, 03:33 AM   #395
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Originally Posted by Joey McGee View Post
The only reason that pilots still pilot airplanes is that people would freak out if they knew there was no one sitting there.
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Old 29th March 2017, 03:51 AM   #396
Joey McGee
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
If companies actually believed that passengers would consider flying in a pilotless plane they would have started working on the technology decades ago and it would be here and we would have pilots observing planes landing themselves ready to takeover... lol do you seriously doubt this? Planes already fly themselves except for landing...

Quote:
“It appears that people are more comfortable with a pilot directly at the controls, and on the plane,” says aeronautics expert Stephen Rice, formerly at the Florida Institute of Technology and now at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, who co-authored a 2014 report on public perception of robotic flights. "People are of the opinion that being in the vehicle while controlling it is easier than controlling it remotely. Most people have driven remote control cars or planes and find it difficult.”
Most crashes in planes are caused by human error with takeoff and landing, so yet again, you are wrong, the industry mostly agrees with my take, and you're just a naysayer.
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Old 29th March 2017, 03:54 AM   #397
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Originally Posted by marplots View Post
Self driving cars aren't a "bad thing." What they are is a novelty item some people find really cool.
Right now, they aren't even a thing. They might be a thing some day. I think they certainly will be by 2050, and they might be much sooner than that. Five years? Very optimistic. Ten? I think so, but it doesn't seem to me to be a sure bet.

However, I definitely don't think they are a "novelty item". I drive about 20,000 miles per year, and I don't like any single one of those miles. I would gladly let something else take over that task. They are no more a novelty item than is a dishwasher or washing machine. They are an item that, as soon as they exist, will free me from doing something I really don't want to do.
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Old 29th March 2017, 04:04 AM   #398
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Right now, they aren't even a thing.
I think what people lose sight of is that these nerds and boffins know a thing or two and they can accurately extropolate what will happen. See, we have this thing called money, politics, and culture getting in the way of what they know they could do next week if they have infinite funds, sane officials and a population of people who aren't proud of their own brand of manure.
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Old 29th March 2017, 04:07 AM   #399
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
A root canal is more fun.
Yeah the only thing that depresses me more than the fight against driverless cars is the fact that I'm a drunk.
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Old 29th March 2017, 04:22 AM   #400
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Originally Posted by Joey McGee View Post
I think what people lose sight of is that these nerds and boffins know a thing or two and they can accurately extropolate what will happen. See, we have this thing called money, politics, and culture getting in the way of what they know they could do next week if they have infinite funds, sane officials and a population of people who aren't proud of their own brand of manure.
Speaking as one of those nerds who is actively working on related issues, I believe they will be a thing someday, but I also think that the most optimistic people underestimate the challenges. I think people are so impressed with the progress made in the last few years that they assume we will continue that rate of progress.

In some sense, I think they are right. However, I think what has happened is that we have finally solved some of the problems we have been working on for many years, so we see fantastic progress, but the problems that have been solved were some of the easy problems. Before we get to real driverless cars, we have to take on the harder one.

A mental model of this particular technology advance that I have is that every year, we'll solve some of the problems, let's say that every year we solve 10% of the remaining problems. If that's the case, when do we reach the goal. The answer, of course, is never. We asymptotically approach it, but never get there. Fortunately for those of us who want inexpensive transport when we retire and get too old to drive safely, I don't think it's quite that bad. I think we will find that the remaining problems are harder than the ones we have already solved, but we will solve them, and I don't think it will take very many years to do it.
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