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Tags cars

View Poll Results: Driverless cars will become mandatory by 2050
Yes they will 30 22.73%
No they won't 63 47.73%
It will take longer 22 16.67%
Your poll options suck 35 26.52%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 132. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 27th January 2017, 06:58 AM   #81
newyorkguy
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To show you what technology can do, I read a blog the other day about a guy in Manhattan.

He was at work when he got an alert from the security system he had installed in his apartment. It triggers when the front door is opened. He went online (on his phone) and used the security cameras he installed to scan the apartment. There was a guy in his apartment preparing to remove his TV. He was able to use the voice function to ask the guy, "What's going on? Why are you in my apartment?" The guy answered he was "building maintenance," but got spooked and hurriedly left. The apartment owner called 911 anyway. A detective agreed to look at the video, recognized the perp and picked him up. They charged him with unlawful entry.

Ironically the burglar is in prison now. So quick? Yeah. He was on parole for a string of burglaries and, once the police showed his parole officer the video, they revoked his parole. Buh-bye!

The modern world; it can work.
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Old 27th January 2017, 10:59 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
To show you what technology can do, I read a blog the other day about a guy in Manhattan.

He was at work when he got an alert from the security system he had installed in his apartment. It triggers when the front door is opened. He went online (on his phone) and used the security cameras he installed to scan the apartment. There was a guy in his apartment preparing to remove his TV. He was able to use the voice function to ask the guy, "What's going on? Why are you in my apartment?" The guy answered he was "building maintenance," but got spooked and hurriedly left. The apartment owner called 911 anyway. A detective agreed to look at the video, recognized the perp and picked him up. They charged him with unlawful entry.

Ironically the burglar is in prison now. So quick? Yeah. He was on parole for a string of burglaries and, once the police showed his parole officer the video, they revoked his parole. Buh-bye!

The modern world; it can work.
There's nothing remotely (no pun intended) complex about that technology. Your comparison with fully automated vehicles is akin to saying that my pocket camera is evidence that we'll soon be teleporting to the Moon.
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Old 27th January 2017, 11:32 AM   #83
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Pfffffttt...... everyone knows High-Speed Rail is the answer
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Old 27th January 2017, 03:08 PM   #84
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Forget about driverless cars, the net needs alcohol free posting.

Think of the memberships saved!
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Old 27th January 2017, 03:15 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Pfffffttt...... everyone knows High-Speed Rail is the answer
IRW, I know a guy fixated on it here.

I asked him how often he needs to get down into the central valley...he's jazzed about it running through San Francisco.

When I gave him the good news he wasn't happy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Califo...igh-Speed_Rail

Early predictions of completion in 2029 are seriously optimistic. If they complete the project before I croak I'll be amazed.
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Old 27th January 2017, 04:18 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
IRW, I know a guy fixated on it here.

I asked him how often he needs to get down into the central valley...he's jazzed about it running through San Francisco.

When I gave him the good news he wasn't happy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Califo...igh-Speed_Rail

Early predictions of completion in 2029 are seriously optimistic. If they complete the project before I croak I'll be amazed.
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Old 27th January 2017, 08:48 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by Joey McGee View Post
I just reread the thread... and I am exhausted, I'm emotional. It takes a village to raise a child, let's all be friends... I'm sorry

Just don't do it again
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Old 27th January 2017, 08:59 PM   #88
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"Hey man, can you pick me up on your way into work?"
"What's up? Car on the fritz?"
"No, the damn Secretary of State shut it off because my ex reported me behind on child support payments."
"Bummer. And if you can't get to work without car, you'll lose your job. Where do the support payments come from then?"
"Yeah, so can you pick me up?"
"You know I would, but you'll have to walk a few miles to the mall."
"The mall? Just come by my house."
"No good. My auto-car has a block. I can't go within a thousand feet of a school, daycare, or park. No way to get nearer to you than the mall."
"Screw auto-car. Whatever happened to freedom?"

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Old 28th January 2017, 04:23 AM   #89
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Not even in 2100 short of breaching multiple hard limits in Theoretical Computing and bypassing multiple critical problems. And if anybody would propose it I'd be in opposition. (but one of grey hats/black hats would likely demonstrate promptly why it is bad idea before it got any where)

1) Technology is not even remotely there. A lot sensors are required to even keep things on track, yet more sensors means more points of failure and more data to process. Furthermore each sensors need to have output cleaned up of noise to be of use. but each filtering ahs a risk of removing or distorting critical information. And merging outputs into some coherent information stream is "fun" in itself.

2) Environment and navigation ensures that technology has damn long road ahead. optimal cases are one thing (not really sunny, good visibility, no significant water vapor or other fun stuff) Start adding variables , each affecting each sensor differently and job for technology got suddenly much harder. Yet that is not all. Navigation itself is brutal problem on its own. GPS and co can work in about 80% of cases. And then what about rest? Mountains, old cities (Prague, Hradec Králové, Paris,...) or fairly large, dense and old forests? Changes in available roads, outdated maps (or absence of information - either partially or completely) I have seen damn too many cases where navigation failed and had to navigate people manually. (After deciphering where they are)

3) In previous point I mentioned failure in sensors, but that is not the only thing that can go wrong critically. Bugs in software, bugs in associated services and data (like maps), slow processing, "subtle"" technical problems of car (engine, tires, mechanics,...). Unexpected stuff will throw off code. And detection of them is whole another story on its own and avoiding false positives is another fun on top. And one must not forget "authorized" or unauthorized maintenance and repairs. (and bypasses...)

4) And final and most fun thing is: Security. Some of current cars aer already damn too hackable. (Even if stuff is kept separate). No such thing for autonomous car. It has to be connected to net to get critical information and navigation data. (And separate networking won't save it) And whatever component gets information has to be able to inform core driving components. Or car is 100% useless. Still it is not the only way how to remotely have "fun" with autonomous car. Various jamming of sensors, false signals, outright malicious input including road painting,... Options are endless!

If computer security thought me over years one thing, never underestimate number of ways to break system.

===

In short: It cannot not work, it will work and I am sure I forgot half of the things that are terminal for idea. If somebody wants to help, then push assistance systems, educating public on phone usage and proper driver examination. (My country is quite good and Germany or Finland? leads the way)
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Old 28th January 2017, 08:34 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Not even in 2100 short of breaching multiple hard limits in Theoretical Computing and bypassing multiple critical problems. And if anybody would propose it I'd be in opposition. (but one of grey hats/black hats would likely demonstrate promptly why it is bad idea before it got any where)

1) Technology is not even remotely there. A lot sensors are required to even keep things on track, yet more sensors means more points of failure and more data to process. Furthermore each sensors need to have output cleaned up of noise to be of use. but each filtering ahs a risk of removing or distorting critical information. And merging outputs into some coherent information stream is "fun" in itself.

2) Environment and navigation ensures that technology has damn long road ahead. optimal cases are one thing (not really sunny, good visibility, no significant water vapor or other fun stuff) Start adding variables , each affecting each sensor differently and job for technology got suddenly much harder. Yet that is not all. Navigation itself is brutal problem on its own. GPS and co can work in about 80% of cases. And then what about rest? Mountains, old cities (Prague, Hradec Králové, Paris,...) or fairly large, dense and old forests? Changes in available roads, outdated maps (or absence of information - either partially or completely) I have seen damn too many cases where navigation failed and had to navigate people manually. (After deciphering where they are)

3) In previous point I mentioned failure in sensors, but that is not the only thing that can go wrong critically. Bugs in software, bugs in associated services and data (like maps), slow processing, "subtle"" technical problems of car (engine, tires, mechanics,...). Unexpected stuff will throw off code. And detection of them is whole another story on its own and avoiding false positives is another fun on top. And one must not forget "authorized" or unauthorized maintenance and repairs. (and bypasses...)

4) And final and most fun thing is: Security. Some of current cars aer already damn too hackable. (Even if stuff is kept separate). No such thing for autonomous car. It has to be connected to net to get critical information and navigation data. (And separate networking won't save it) And whatever component gets information has to be able to inform core driving components. Or car is 100% useless. Still it is not the only way how to remotely have "fun" with autonomous car. Various jamming of sensors, false signals, outright malicious input including road painting,... Options are endless!

If computer security thought me over years one thing, never underestimate number of ways to break system.

===

In short: It cannot not work, it will work and I am sure I forgot half of the things that are terminal for idea. If somebody wants to help, then push assistance systems, educating public on phone usage and proper driver examination. (My country is quite good and Germany or Finland? leads the way)
I did this to death in the old thread. The response, essentially, is that in the future anything is possible and if you believe otherwise then you're a Luddite. No sensor coverage? Sensors will be everywhere. No remote comms? Every square metre of earth will have mega-fast wi-fi with 100% up-time. Security issues? In the future everything will be unhackable. Bugs? No bugs in the future. Total terrain mapping? In the future that is so easy. And so it goes on. In the future technology will be perfect and money will be plentiful and everybody will be happy and live to 130. So there's your answer.
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Old 28th January 2017, 09:12 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Not even in 2100 short of breaching multiple hard limits in Theoretical Computing and bypassing multiple critical problems....
In short: It cannot not work, it will work...
Originally Posted by baron View Post
I did this to death in the old thread...
Of course people don't accept your opinion as the final word on the subject. First of all, we don't really know who you are, what your qualifications are. Second, people in the real world who are actually, physically involved in this don't agree, "It can't happen." They think it can happen. This is from an article by National Geographic's Dan Stone:
Quote:
Which brings us to driverless cars, a technology still in its infancy, but appears the most promising as a game changer...Google is one of the top companies working on this technology, which already exists. GM, Audi and BMW are already at work designing prototypes. Article link
Here we are:
  1. Can work - technical people at Google, GM, Audi, BMW etc.
  2. Can't work - anonymous posters on Internet message forum.

Face it: No. 1 has more credibility. People can believe whatever they want but this isn't going away.
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Old 28th January 2017, 09:23 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Not even in 2100 short of breaching multiple hard limits in Theoretical Computing and bypassing multiple critical problems. And if anybody would propose it I'd be in opposition. (but one of grey hats/black hats would likely demonstrate promptly why it is bad idea before it got any where)

1) Technology is not even remotely there.
Technology is remotely there. No, they aren't ready to deploy, but the poll asked about 33 years from now.

I look back at 33 years ago, 1984, and I know I could not have imagined the world as it is today. More importantly, I studied artificial intelligence and neural networks as a master's degree student starting that year, in 1984. My career didn't take me that way, primarily because the technology mostly didn't work. When my work sent me to an IEEE AI symposium at 1989, my one line summary of that conference was "More A than I." I would periodically peruse the literature, and while advances were being made, I would still see the same, contrived situations that were clearly not ready for any setting beyond academia.

That changed a few years ago. In 2014 I went back to the library, and was stunned at the quality of the work I was reading. There were no more toy problems getting PhDs. Those articles were real world, honest to goodness, viable applications of autonomous vehicles and all the computing infrastructure to support it.

Not to say that your concerns aren't valid, but none of the problems are insurmountable. Keep in mind that the cars don't have to be perfect. They just have to be better than humans.

Meanwhile, today, I am going to be working to drive an autonomous robot holding a large gear, so the gear can be placed on a peg. To do that, the robot will have to see and navigate toward a marking near the peg. That's a pretty simple problem, but the catch is that I am not actually going to do it. I'm going to teach a 16 year old how to do it, and when he does, the total cost of his computer, sensor, and software to solve that problem will be 50 dollars. (Opencv, and a Raspberry Pi with a USB web cam.)

That kid is going to learn a lot more by the time he is 49 years old.

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Old 28th January 2017, 09:33 AM   #93
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One of the objections I see toward autonomous vehicles is that they required detailed mapping and navigation assistance, like GPS.

Yes, that's true, today. But people are working on those very problems, working to eliminate the need for a map. Yes, research is being done to deal with the problems of snow, and fog, and pedestrians, and moose. Yesterday, I saw an abstract of a paper dealing with visual recognition and behavior modelling of stray dogs in an urban environment.
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Old 28th January 2017, 05:27 PM   #94
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So who's liable when accidents happen?
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Old 28th January 2017, 05:28 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
So who's liable when accidents happen?
Pokemon.
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Old 28th January 2017, 05:32 PM   #96
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I'm going to say that step 1 will be computer-assisted long haul trucks.
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Old 29th January 2017, 03:30 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
I did this to death in the old thread. The response, essentially, is that in the future anything is possible and if you believe otherwise then you're a Luddite. No sensor coverage? Sensors will be everywhere. No remote comms? Every square metre of earth will have mega-fast wi-fi with 100% up-time. Security issues? In the future everything will be unhackable. Bugs? No bugs in the future. Total terrain mapping? In the future that is so easy. And so it goes on. In the future technology will be perfect and money will be plentiful and everybody will be happy and live to 130. So there's your answer.
Great. Soft Sience fiction thinking. There is a reason why I never tried to participate in the old thread. I guess I think I need some new entertaining headesking....

Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Of course people don't accept your opinion as the final word on the subject. First of all, we don't really know who you are, what your qualifications are. Second, people in the real world who are actually, physically involved in this don't agree, "It can't happen." They think it can happen. This is from an article by National Geographic's Dan Stone:
I don't need anybody to know who I am nor my qualification for my posts to stand up to scrutiny. Unfortunately, people think that computing is magic and can do anything. Aka case of critical ignorance. Reality tends to unfortunately kick them in the ass the way it is predicted. Autonomous cars won't be exception to the rule by long shot.

Quote:

Here we are:
  1. Can work - technical people at Google, GM, Audi, BMW etc.
  2. Can't work - anonymous posters on Internet message forum.

Face it: No. 1 has more credibility. People can believe whatever they want but this isn't going away.
They are barely in testing stages and have very few samples. And yet we already got to see fun crashy stuff. Just that infamous tesla crash where camera got blinded by sun shows brutally limitations of technology. And they didn't get to even try most of fun things. (Snow + sun and barely visible road with no GPS coverage for example)

You haven't address even 1 bit of my long post. I know why. It is to comprehensive and any attempt at rebuttal would require at least my level of knowledge of problem space to make a dent in it.

I detailed everything that I know that can and will go wrong. I am certain I missed half of it. I even included stuff from real life to illustrate parts of problems that will not go away just because of magical thinking.

Also Google and credibility? Good joke. That's reality versus perception...


As I said, you don't need to know anything about me. All you need is to read my post and address my claims as they are. But I don't think you have necessary knowledge for that so you have to resort to weak challenge on "credibility". I understand you need to defend you favorite technology, but you have to do far better job then this "attempt".

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Technology is remotely there. No, they aren't ready to deploy, but the poll asked about 33 years from now.
1 year, ten years, 33 years or 100 years. Doesn't matter. To force something, it must solve problem and not introduce new - and that is NOT case here. And security doesn't care about time scale. And as we already saw we are bad at securing stuff. Also random backwater roads don't care much about time passed.

And finally halting problem takes care of rest.
Quote:
I look back at 33 years ago, 1984, and I know I could not have imagined the world as it is today. More importantly, I studied artificial intelligence and neural networks as a master's degree student starting that year, in 1984. My career didn't take me that way, primarily because the technology mostly didn't work. When my work sent me to an IEEE AI symposium at 1989, my one line summary of that conference was "More A than I." I would periodically peruse the literature, and while advances were being made, I would still see the same, contrived situations that were clearly not ready for any setting beyond academia.

That changed a few years ago. In 2014 I went back to the library, and was stunned at the quality of the work I was reading. There were no more toy problems getting PhDs. Those articles were real world, honest to goodness, viable applications of autonomous vehicles and all the computing infrastructure to support it.

Not to say that your concerns aren't valid, but none of the problems are insurmountable. Keep in mind that the cars don't have to be perfect. They just have to be better than humans.
AI and vastly complex system of autonomous cars were you have far more subsystems and dependencies are terminally different things. AI is one problem, without theoretical informatics in the way.

Some of problems cannot be solved, because there is simply no solution for them even with massive investments, because of their inherent irregularity. (Forrest and mountains are just one example)

Quote:
Meanwhile, today, I am going to be working to drive an autonomous robot holding a large gear, so the gear can be placed on a peg. To do that, the robot will have to see and navigate toward a marking near the peg. That's a pretty simple problem, but the catch is that I am not actually going to do it. I'm going to teach a 16 year old how to do it, and when he does, the total cost of his computer, sensor, and software to solve that problem will be 50 dollars. (Opencv, and a Raspberry Pi with a USB web cam.)

That kid is going to learn a lot more by the time he is 49 years old.
That's nice, but relevance? Time won't help you with quite few of the problems, they are fundamental part of real world and/or computing. Time will not solve stuff like halting problem or bad data nor maintenance...
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Old 29th January 2017, 03:33 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
I'm going to say that step 1 will be computer-assisted long haul trucks.
That's likely one of the few cases where it can work. but then, why not invest and use trains. Even fewer challenges.
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Old 29th January 2017, 11:27 AM   #99
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If these vehicles are made mandatory, that means the technology will have to reach everyone everywhere.

Rural America, with its dirt and gravel roads? And its need for pickups that will still "go to town" for supplies and entertainment?

The inner city?

Both of these scenarios are chock full of people scraping by, trying to keep 1972 Ford pickups and 1978 Chevy Caprices together using junkyard replacement parts. How are we going to introduce this new technology to them by 2050, considering the trust factor and costs?
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Old 29th January 2017, 02:26 PM   #100
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
That's nice, but relevance? Time won't help you with quite few of the problems, they are fundamental part of real world and/or computing. Time will not solve stuff like halting problem or bad data nor maintenance...
The beauty of this debate is that time will prove one of us right and one of us wrong. All we need to do is wait to see which.
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Old 29th January 2017, 04:16 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
They are barely in testing stages and have very few samples.
One company has more than 2 million miles logged and the cars learn from each other. They are better trained than you will be in your lifetime unless you are a professional driver.

Quote:
And yet we already got to see fun crashy stuff. Just that infamous tesla crash where camera got blinded by sun shows brutally limitations of technology.
Tesla does not have an autonomous car. They have driver assist. It was a failure of the driver that resulted in that crash.
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Old 29th January 2017, 04:39 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
1) Technology is not even remotely there. A lot sensors are required to even keep things on track, yet more sensors means more points of failure and more data to process. Furthermore each sensors need to have output cleaned up of noise to be of use. but each filtering ahs a risk of removing or distorting critical information. And merging outputs into some coherent information stream is "fun" in itself.
And Google, along with many other makers, have demonstrated the viability of all this. Sensor failure is a minor issue. They just do not fail like people think they do.

Quote:
2) Environment and navigation ensures that technology has damn long road ahead. optimal cases are one thing (not really sunny, good visibility, no significant water vapor or other fun stuff) Start adding variables , each affecting each sensor differently and job for technology got suddenly much harder. Yet that is not all. Navigation itself is brutal problem on its own. GPS and co can work in about 80% of cases. And then what about rest? Mountains, old cities (Prague, Hradec Králové, Paris,...) or fairly large, dense and old forests? Changes in available roads, outdated maps (or absence of information - either partially or completely) I have seen damn too many cases where navigation failed and had to navigate people manually. (After deciphering where they are)
Navigation seems like a minor problem. The GPS gives the vehicle an overall picture of where it is in the world while sensors give the car info on its exact positioning on the road and in the lane.

Think about this, too. As autonomous cars go online the landscape of the road will change with traffic lights, etc., being being partnered with, and replaced by, the ability to communicate to the car without visual imagery. The car doesn't need to stop because it already knows there is nothing coming. You need to stop because you only have your eyes.

Quote:
3) In previous point I mentioned failure in sensors, but that is not the only thing that can go wrong critically. Bugs in software, bugs in associated services and data (like maps), slow processing, "subtle"" technical problems of car (engine, tires, mechanics,...). Unexpected stuff will throw off code. And detection of them is whole another story on its own and avoiding false positives is another fun on top. And one must not forget "authorized" or unauthorized maintenance and repairs. (and bypasses...)
Lots of things can go wrong, no one denies that. You think these issues are insurmountable and others don't. Unexpected stuff throws off humans easier than it throws off a computer but both use the same process to deal with it; move to a safe default, assess the situation, decide from there how to proceed.

Quote:
4) And final and most fun thing is: Security. Some of current cars aer already damn too hackable. (Even if stuff is kept separate). No such thing for autonomous car. It has to be connected to net to get critical information and navigation data. (And separate networking won't save it) And whatever component gets information has to be able to inform core driving components. Or car is 100% useless. Still it is not the only way how to remotely have "fun" with autonomous car. Various jamming of sensors, false signals, outright malicious input including road painting,... Options are endless!
This is the one we hear all the time and yet it just doesn't happen. How do you control a vehicle that you aren't connected to? How do you control a system that you can't connect to through a system that you might be able to connect to, ie. How do you control the body and engine modules through the entertainment system when there is no possible way to connect the two without getting access to the individual vehicle and inserting the necessary hardware to link them?
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Old 30th January 2017, 04:30 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
So who's liable when accidents happen?
Same as today.
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Old 30th January 2017, 04:34 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by RatBoy View Post
If these vehicles are made mandatory, that means the technology will have to reach everyone everywhere.

Rural America, with its dirt and gravel roads? And its need for pickups that will still "go to town" for supplies and entertainment?

The inner city?

Both of these scenarios are chock full of people scraping by, trying to keep 1972 Ford pickups and 1978 Chevy Caprices together using junkyard replacement parts. How are we going to introduce this new technology to them by 2050, considering the trust factor and costs?
I bet American rural lanes are comparatively easy compared to UK rural lanes. America is probably one of the easiest of countries to manage given the way it has developed. In the UK we are still using lanes and roads that predated the horse and cart never mind the car!
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Old 30th January 2017, 04:55 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
4) And final and most fun thing is: Security. Some of current cars aer already damn too hackable. (Even if stuff is kept separate). No such thing for autonomous car. It has to be connected to net to get critical information and navigation data. (And separate networking won't save it) And whatever component gets information has to be able to inform core driving components. Or car is 100% useless. Still it is not the only way how to remotely have "fun" with autonomous car. Various jamming of sensors, false signals, outright malicious input including road painting,... Options are endless!

If computer security thought me over years one thing, never underestimate number of ways to break system.
Actually, this is a huge problem for modern cars, with or without drivers. The car of the present is pretty darned hackable, and the car of the near future is worse.

One thing that I think you are wrong about is the need to stay connected. When driverless cars take to the road, they won't need constant connections to get navigation data, any more then you do. Today's experimental driverless cars require all sorts of high detail mapping and such, but if that problem isn't solved, driverless cars will never be a reality. At a minimum, these cars will have to navigate, without a network connection, to a safe spot off the road. If they can't do that, they'll never take to the road.

The current driverless cars, which require all of this just to work, are an interim step. They aren't road ready.

The idea of malicious road painting is an interesting one, though. Things like this will indeed be major engineering obstacles to overcome. 33 years is a long time, though.
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Old 30th January 2017, 08:35 AM   #106
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I would not worry. We are, after all, entering the new era of smaller government and lower taxes, which almost guarantees a new system that is surprisingly expensive and intrusive. You won't get medical care or school lunches, but the back roads will a good internet connection.
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Old 30th January 2017, 11:17 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Actually, this is a huge problem for modern cars, with or without drivers. The car of the present is pretty darned hackable, and the car of the near future is worse.
We keep hearing this with no evidence. A lot of the hacked car videos we see are faked.

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One thing that I think you are wrong about is the need to stay connected. When driverless cars take to the road, they won't need constant connections to get navigation data, any more then you do. Today's experimental driverless cars require all sorts of high detail mapping and such, but if that problem isn't solved, driverless cars will never be a reality. At a minimum, these cars will have to navigate, without a network connection, to a safe spot off the road. If they can't do that, they'll never take to the road.
This doesn't make any sense at all. My GPS works without an internet connection and my cellphone GPS can navigate Google Maps without and internet connection. In fact, it took me from Vancouver Island, British Columbia to Rosthern, Saskatchewan last year and I only had a cellphone connection for an hour as I drove through the Lower Mainland of BC. There wasn't a single glitch.

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The current driverless cars, which require all of this just to work, are an interim step. They aren't road ready.
The system is as secure as the GPS satellites are.

Quote:
The idea of malicious road painting is an interesting one, though. Things like this will indeed be major engineering obstacles to overcome. 33 years is a long time, though.
So Wile E. Coyote is the evil genius trying to bring down autonomous cars? You know his evil doesn't work near cliffs, on any road, when there is a large rock in the vicinity, of when there is a roadrunner nearby, right? I think we're good.
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Old 30th January 2017, 11:26 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Same as today.
There's a fleet of driverless cars out there already?
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Old 30th January 2017, 02:11 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
There's a fleet of driverless cars out there already?
??
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Old 30th January 2017, 02:32 PM   #110
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I don't see how the civilization could still be around in 2050. It seem we might make 2020, but I wouldn't look much beyond that ..
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Old 30th January 2017, 05:57 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Same as today.
No. At least not in the US. Europe or the UK might be different. In the US, this will have to be answered before driverless cars take to the road in anything beyond the experimental phase.

The thing is that when there is a car wreck, and someone is at fault, and someone is injured in a big way, or killed, the driver at fault is sued. And what happens? The plaintiff gets paid whatever the insurance will pay. When the "driver" is a deep pocketed corporation, that could get pretty pricey. So pricey that it becomes prohibitively expensive to deploy the cars.

Also, there will be millions of lines of code running on those cars, and if one is in any way wrong or deficient, it will be called a "design flaw" and the jury will buy it, and say the car company is at fault.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a piece of national legislation shoved through in the next two years that at least partially shields car companies from liability. They're going to figure that the governmental climate for passing industry friendly regulations will be better in the next two years than it will likely be in at least the six after that.
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Old 30th January 2017, 06:56 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
No. At least not in the US. Europe or the UK might be different. In the US, this will have to be answered before driverless cars take to the road in anything beyond the experimental phase.

The thing is that when there is a car wreck, and someone is at fault, and someone is injured in a big way, or killed, the driver at fault is sued. And what happens? The plaintiff gets paid whatever the insurance will pay. When the "driver" is a deep pocketed corporation, that could get pretty pricey. So pricey that it becomes prohibitively expensive to deploy the cars.

Also, there will be millions of lines of code running on those cars, and if one is in any way wrong or deficient, it will be called a "design flaw" and the jury will buy it, and say the car company is at fault.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a piece of national legislation shoved through in the next two years that at least partially shields car companies from liability. They're going to figure that the governmental climate for passing industry friendly regulations will be better in the next two years than it will likely be in at least the six after that.

This, thanks for saving me the time.
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Old 31st January 2017, 03:59 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
The beauty of this debate is that time will prove one of us right and one of us wrong. All we need to do is wait to see which.
That's true...

Originally Posted by qayak View Post
One company has more than 2 million miles logged and the cars learn from each other. They are better trained than you will be in your lifetime unless you are a professional driver.
Am I supposed to be amazed and impressed? Doubt they covered even 10% of common cases and pretty sure they never came even close to mountains or forests (for examples of fun environment stuff) They still are solving fairly simple problems... (and will be stuck there for quite bit more)
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Tesla does not have an autonomous car. They have driver assist. It was a failure of the driver that resulted in that crash.
I was only talking about failure of sensor. (not who or what was at fault or nature of technology in question) Failure of sensor is illustration of challenges that are yet tp be correctly solved.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Actually, this is a huge problem for modern cars, with or without drivers. The car of the present is pretty darned hackable, and the car of the near future is worse.

One thing that I think you are wrong about is the need to stay connected. When driverless cars take to the road, they won't need constant connections to get navigation data, any more then you do. Today's experimental driverless cars require all sorts of high detail mapping and such, but if that problem isn't solved, driverless cars will never be a reality. At a minimum, these cars will have to navigate, without a network connection, to a safe spot off the road. If they can't do that, they'll never take to the road.

The current driverless cars, which require all of this just to work, are an interim step. They aren't road ready.

The idea of malicious road painting is an interesting one, though. Things like this will indeed be major engineering obstacles to overcome. 33 years is a long time, though.
1) That's why I mentioned the security aspect. And it'll get worse. (Let's not forget IoT...)

2) Just trusting local sensor too much is definitely not good idea. At minimum there will have to be constant GPS and traffic/changes updates. And likely C2C communication to prevent some of accidents. (IIRC there was at least one nasty Aircraft crash because systems in bot h planes advised same action to pilots) Also it would help fix external measurements.

3) Malicious road painting BTW is not new idea. Some years ago local council tried to solve speeding on street by having two sets of white stripes painted on particular location. Idea was that brain will interpret them as uneven surface and thus driver will slow down. I don't think it worked that much...
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Old 31st January 2017, 05:04 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
2) Just trusting local sensor too much is definitely not good idea. At minimum there will have to be constant GPS and traffic/changes updates.
At a minimum, that's what we need today, but that's a bug, not a feature.

They're working on it.

If the cars cannot perform safely without external communication, they won't be allowed on the road. Everyone knows that external communication can go down for various reasons. If the cars become unsafe when that happens, the cars are unsafe. At the very least, they have to be able to get themselves safely off the road.

Today's autonomous vehicles, even the best of them, can't do that. The question is whether or not they ever will.

The question comes down to whether human-like intelligence is required to drive. By "human like intelligence" I mean the ability to interpret scenes, understand what almost everything in the scene is, and how it behaves, and plan routes based not just on your own goals, but taking into account the likely behavior of all sorts of thing you are likely, or even unlikely, to encounter. Is it enough to recognize that there is a quadrupedal mammal moving at a certain rate, or do you have to know something about moose behavior when driving through the forest?

If it turns out that you really can't get from here to there without all that knowledge, driverless cars will have to wait until we can pack that into a computer.
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Old 31st January 2017, 08:54 PM   #115
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What is with the near cultish devotion this subject provokes in some people? I don't observe it in any other developing technology. It's a little...strange.
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Old 31st January 2017, 09:04 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
What is with the near cultish devotion this subject provokes in some people? I don't observe it in any other developing technology. It's a little...strange.
A few things.

1. It's accessible in a way that some other high tech developments aren't. We can relate to cars.
2. It's huge in its impact to society, not just economically, but really in the way we live. If our cars can drive themselves, our lives change pretty significantly.
3. It hits on the existential dilemma that we will have to face in the near future. Our machines will have computational abilities comparable to our brains. That's going to freak a lot of people out. Some people react to that by simply insisting it cannot happen. So it's a philosophical, as well as practical, problem.
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Old 31st January 2017, 10:49 PM   #117
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Technology is remotely there. No, they aren't ready to deploy, but the poll asked about 33 years from now.

I look back at 33 years ago, 1984...

.
In 1984 I believed that everyone in the future would be wearing digital watches
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Old 1st February 2017, 05:03 AM   #118
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Originally Posted by Noztradamus View Post
In 1984 I believed that everyone in the future would be wearing digital watches
Instead, we reinvented the pocket watch. We just didn't anticipate that it would also make phone calls, play games, be a flashlight, tell us where we are on the planet to within a couple of meters accuracy, and be able to be used to control and view camera output from spy helicopters.
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Old 1st February 2017, 05:05 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Instead, we reinvented the pocket watch. We just didn't anticipate that it would also make phone calls, play games, be a flashlight, tell us where we are on the planet to within a couple of meters accuracy, and be able to be used to control and view camera output from spy helicopters.
Pockets being the foundational technology.
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Old 1st February 2017, 05:17 AM   #120
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Instead, we reinvented the pocket watch. We just didn't anticipate that it would also make phone calls, play games, be a flashlight, tell us where we are on the planet to within a couple of meters accuracy, and be able to be used to control and view camera output from spy helicopters.
And have the ability to access the entire knowledge known to Man in seconds.

It's mostly used to view pictures of cats and get in arguments with strangers. I liked that one

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