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Old 15th January 2020, 03:44 AM   #401
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
If that's true that really sucks.
When I saw that there had been arrests made in relation to the crash I was amazed that the authorities would actual try to bring the properties to justice. Then I read the article and was very disappointed.
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Old 15th January 2020, 04:57 AM   #402
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Why do you think they believed they could cover it up? I think their various denials and obfuscations were probably short term plays, and they knew it.
So they lied about it, only so they could lose what little credibility they have left? They lied only so they could be proven wrong by the "Great Satan" and the Iranian people?

I struggle to come up with a rational reason for why they would do anything like that. Lying for the sake of lying is not without a cost, unless you can guarantee that the people who you are lying to have no way to prove that you lie.
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Old 15th January 2020, 05:04 AM   #403
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
… Meanwhile: The person who posted the video of flight 752 being hit by a missile has been arrested.
But a journalist who initially put it online says the guy who sourced the video is safe and the Iranians have arrested the wrong person. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51114945
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Old 15th January 2020, 05:43 AM   #404
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
So they lied about it, only so they could lose what little credibility they have left? They lied only so they could be proven wrong by the "Great Satan" and the Iranian people?

I struggle to come up with a rational reason for why they would do anything like that. Lying for the sake of lying is not without a cost, unless you can guarantee that the people who you are lying to have no way to prove that you lie.
Knee jerk reaction, probably took some time for all the officials to get the real facts.
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Old 15th January 2020, 05:59 AM   #405
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Knee jerk reaction, probably took some time for all the officials to get the real facts.
Which is consistent with the lack of a consistent and believable narrative, and speaks against it being a calculated response.

They were forced to acknowledge the truth only after they realized that they weren't believed by the Iranian people, and that they were far more willing to believe in the "psychological warfare" of the Americans and Israelis. To insist on maintaining a lie that no one believed would only hurt them more than saying the truth (without explicitly admitting that they were lying to begin with).
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Old 15th January 2020, 06:06 AM   #406
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Knee jerk reaction, probably took some time for all the officials to get the real facts.


No too mention, when you're used to lying all the time, it probably takes an actual effort to tell the truth.
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Old 15th January 2020, 06:30 AM   #407
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I'm no expert, and the examples I have in mind are mainly Saudi and Egyptian, and possibly Persian isn't the same, but I have picked up that lying isn't regarded as socially unacceptable by some middle eastern men. They say what will smooth over a situation, what will avoid an awkwardness, what will deflect a criticism, what will flatter the person they're talking to, and it's just normal accepted behaviour.
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Old 15th January 2020, 07:11 AM   #408
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I'm no expert, and the examples I have in mind are mainly Saudi and Egyptian, and possibly Persian isn't the same, but I have picked up that lying isn't regarded as socially unacceptable by some middle eastern men. They say what will smooth over a situation, what will avoid an awkwardness, what will deflect a criticism, what will flatter the person they're talking to, and it's just normal accepted behaviour.
Funnily enough, I remember that an Iranian acquaintance of mine nearly always began anecdotes or pieces of advice with "Believe me!"

That said, I doubt that attitudes to lying are so radically different that someone saying "Yeah, the plane obviously had a mechanical failure!" when the truth is that person had just blown the plane out of the sky with a couple of missiles, is brushed off as smoothing over an awkward situation.
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Old 15th January 2020, 07:58 AM   #409
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If that person had actually done that. But even then, if you're used to saying what is expedient in the moment rather than what's actually true, I could see it happening.

I'm just wondering if this three-day denial was more of an extended version of the Vincennes 15-minute denial of shooting down IR655 - they simply couldn't believe, in the moment, that that was what had happened. In that case the evidence overwhelmed them almost immediately, but I could see the whole thing becoming more prolonged if a more extended evidence-gathering process was needed.
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Old 15th January 2020, 09:28 AM   #410
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
If that person had actually done that. But even then, if you're used to saying what is expedient in the moment rather than what's actually true, I could see it happening.

I'm just wondering if this three-day denial was more of an extended version of the Vincennes 15-minute denial of shooting down IR655 - they simply couldn't believe, in the moment, that that was what had happened. In that case the evidence overwhelmed them almost immediately, but I could see the whole thing becoming more prolonged if a more extended evidence-gathering process was needed.
Doesn't seem plausible to me. Even assuming the crew of the Vincennes were deluding themselves that much in the minutes following the firing of their own weapons... That's not the same as institutional misrepresentation over a period of days. Including early official statements that can't possibly be justified in any way, regardless of how much they didn't believe it could have been the way it was.

The regime officially stating engine failure almost before the plane had hit the ground isn't panicked denial in the moment. That's a rational decision by officials to lead with a lie while they figure out what really happened.
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Old 15th January 2020, 09:32 AM   #411
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
So they lied about it, only so they could lose what little credibility they have left? They lied only so they could be proven wrong by the "Great Satan" and the Iranian people?

I struggle to come up with a rational reason for why they would do anything like that. Lying for the sake of lying is not without a cost, unless you can guarantee that the people who you are lying to have no way to prove that you lie.
The real world is not a Perry Mason episode. There's no big "gotcha!" moment where the bad guy's lies are revealed, the masses revolt, and everyone lives happily ever after. There's news cycles, and propaganda, and a host of other confounding factors that mean that most PR lies have a shelf life of only a few days - pro and con. Plus, the debunking never has the same force as the publication of the original bunk.
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Old 15th January 2020, 10:59 AM   #412
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Doesn't seem plausible to me. Even assuming the crew of the Vincennes were deluding themselves that much in the minutes following the firing of their own weapons... That's not the same as institutional misrepresentation over a period of days. Including early official statements that can't possibly be justified in any way, regardless of how much they didn't believe it could have been the way it was.

The regime officially stating engine failure almost before the plane had hit the ground isn't panicked denial in the moment. That's a rational decision by officials to lead with a lie while they figure out what really happened.

Maybe so. But a cover-up was so clearly doomed to failure you have to wonder what they thought they were achieving.
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Old 15th January 2020, 11:15 AM   #413
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Funnily enough, I remember that an Iranian acquaintance of mine nearly always began anecdotes or pieces of advice with "Believe me!"

That said, I doubt that attitudes to lying are so radically different that someone saying "Yeah, the plane obviously had a mechanical failure!" when the truth is that person had just blown the plane out of the sky with a couple of missiles, is brushed off as smoothing over an awkward situation.

I think the Iranians realized that they should have banned all smart phones (or cell phones with cameras) years ago if they really wanted to get ahead of this story and smooth things over.
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Old 15th January 2020, 11:41 AM   #414
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Maybe so. But a cover-up was so clearly doomed to failure you have to wonder what they thought they were achieving.
Propaganda works in part by continuously reinforcing the message in those who are already internalizing it. People who want to believe, or need to believe, or have been conditioned to believe will take the initial cover up and add it to the tapestry of their belief. And human nature being what it is, they probably won't use the subsequent reveal or debunking to unravel their tapestry of belief.

You probably won't convert any of the haters with such transparent lies, but that's not the goal, really. If there are conversions at all, they're going to come from the people in the middle who are aware of all the transparent lies but still can't make up their minds. And if you do get a conversion there, all your future transparent lies will go towards reinforcing their tapestry of belief.

In this way, propaganda can be used to get new converts from among the undecideds, in part by surrounding them with believers who keep weaving and reinforcing a tapestry of belief. And if the tapestry is pervasive enough, there's going to be a huge amount of social pressure from the believers to be undecided rather than a hater, and to go along to get along rather than remain undecided. Once you start going along to get along with the propaganda, you become part of the problem, and ultimately become a believer yourself.

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Old 15th January 2020, 11:45 AM   #415
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Makes a twisted sort of sense.
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Old 15th January 2020, 11:52 AM   #416
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
I think the Iranians realized that they should have banned all smart phones (or cell phones with cameras) years ago if they really wanted to get ahead of this story and smooth things over.
It was a cultural aversion to lying which was responsible for all the lies.
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Old 15th January 2020, 12:03 PM   #417
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Makes a twisted sort of sense.
How is it "twisted"? The nature and mechanisms of propaganda are pretty straightforward, I think.
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Old 15th January 2020, 12:04 PM   #418
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Maybe so. But a cover-up was so clearly doomed to failure you have to wonder what they thought they were achieving.
The regime's command structure didn't feel the cover-up was doomed to failure. They felt if they could generate enough general confusion, and taint whatever physical evidence would have been available, and frustrate foreign investigation with claims of protecting national security, that would have been enough for her multitude of apologists around the world to obsessively repeat variations on "we probably will never actually know what really happened". And that's all that would have been necessary for plausible deniability. And with a few differences in circumstances, it's not impossible that might have been just effective enough.
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Old 15th January 2020, 12:13 PM   #419
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
If that person had actually done that. But even then, if you're used to saying what is expedient in the moment rather than what's actually true, I could see it happening.

I'm just wondering if this three-day denial was more of an extended version of the Vincennes 15-minute denial of shooting down IR655 - they simply couldn't believe, in the moment, that that was what had happened. In that case the evidence overwhelmed them almost immediately, but I could see the whole thing becoming more prolonged if a more extended evidence-gathering process was needed.
You mean besides the battery crew telling their superiors that they had just hit 752 with AA fire?
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Old 15th January 2020, 12:21 PM   #420
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
But a journalist who initially put it online says the guy who sourced the video is safe and the Iranians have arrested the wrong person. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51114945
That's just perfect.
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Old 15th January 2020, 12:37 PM   #421
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
You mean besides the battery crew telling their superiors that they had just hit 752 with AA fire?

Ah.
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Old 15th January 2020, 12:38 PM   #422
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
The real world is not a Perry Mason episode. There's no big "gotcha!" moment where the bad guy's lies are revealed, the masses revolt, and everyone lives happily ever after.
No, but there is a point where unrest boils over. It's not always obvious when that is about to happen. Given that there has already been widespread protests and riots that they curbed by shooting hundreds of people dead, the Iranian establishment is in a more precarious position than it might seem.

Quote:
There's news cycles, and propaganda, and a host of other confounding factors that mean that most PR lies have a shelf life of only a few days - pro and con.
Most "PR lies" don't involve a airliner getting shot down right by the capital either. Besides, it's not like this is the first lie or broken promise they have been subject to.

Quote:
Plus, the debunking never has the same force as the publication of the original bunk.
In especially obvious cases like this, where many people would have seen exactly what happened, trying to lie about it actually would have far more negative consequences than any positive ones.

Why else would they suddenly admit it? It was a desperate attempt to salvage what little credibility they have left. Even Trump does the exact same thing when he makes obvious lies.
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Old 16th January 2020, 07:43 AM   #423
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Here is the video of both missiles and impacts.

I couldn't see the NYTIMES one because of subscription requirements, so I don't know if it is the same video.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=sJWeS_1579120801
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Old 16th January 2020, 03:03 PM   #424
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Here is the video of both missiles and impacts.

I couldn't see the NYTIMES one because of subscription requirements, so I don't know if it is the same video.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=sJWeS_1579120801
It is indeed the same video.
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Old 17th January 2020, 12:20 AM   #425
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
The regime's command structure didn't feel the cover-up was doomed to failure. They felt if they could generate enough general confusion, and taint whatever physical evidence would have been available, and frustrate foreign investigation with claims of protecting national security, that would have been enough for her multitude of apologists around the world to obsessively repeat variations on "we probably will never actually know what really happened". And that's all that would have been necessary for plausible deniability. And with a few differences in circumstances, it's not impossible that might have been just effective enough.

Russia > MH17
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Old 19th January 2020, 04:56 AM   #426
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Quote:
Iran’s admission to shooting down Ukrainian International Airlines’ flight 752 has created big problems for the pro-Kremlin disinformation outlets. This is clearly visible in this week’s cases of disinformation.

The pro-Kremlin media started its well-oiled disinformation machinery along well-known narratives: profit-hungry Ukrainians used an old, derelict aircraft, ready for scrapping; only the US had the capacity to shoot down the aircraft – and is methodically shooting down civilian planes; PS752 collided with a US spy drone; the US shot down the aircraft to put the blame on Iran, and selected an Ukrainian aircraft, as the Ukrainians always will support their puppet-masters; the video, allegedly showing a missile hit, is likely staged; and generally, falling Boeings have become a US secret weapon.

All, normal, comfortable Kremlin-standard lies, easy to produce, easy to repeat. Iran’s decision to respect the victims of the disaster; admit to a terrible mistake, give access to the crash site for experts and cooperate with international bodies has demanded serious spinning from Moscow. How to emphasise that “The West” is still to blame? Well, according to the pro-Kremlin outlets, Iran caved in for pressure – or for some profitable deal; Iran fell in a US trap; the Iranian air-defence operator might have been recruited by the US.
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/kremlin-propa...ion-of-denial/

The most powerful propaganda is truthful, accurate and above all else believable. Russian and Iranian propaganda has none of these and instead can only find openings to push their narratives when officials in western countries start being untruth, inaccurate and unbelievable themselves. Yet even here western countries have something to fall back on: a free press that can hold public officials and politicians to account for their lies, something that does not exist in Russia or Iran.
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Old 19th January 2020, 10:53 AM   #427
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Well the plane was Boeing. And where is Boeing made ? Gotcha !
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Old 19th January 2020, 10:54 AM   #428
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Russia > MH17
Precisely.
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Old 19th January 2020, 11:31 AM   #429
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/kremlin-propa...ion-of-denial/

The most powerful propaganda is truthful, accurate and above all else believable. Russian and Iranian propaganda has none of these and instead can only find openings to push their narratives when officials in western countries start being untruth, inaccurate and unbelievable themselves. Yet even here western countries have something to fall back on: a free press that can hold public officials and politicians to account for their lies, something that does not exist in Russia or Iran.
Not necessarily. The tobacco industry were masters of effective propaganda by telling people good news about their bad habits. All of it absurd fabrication.
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Old 19th January 2020, 01:05 PM   #430
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Not necessarily. The tobacco industry were masters of effective propaganda by telling people good news about their bad habits. All of it absurd fabrication.
Really? I think after it became well-known that smoking causes cancer they were not so much in the business of outright fabrication but rather highlighting any slightest doubts such as how correlation does not necessarily equal causation.
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Old 19th January 2020, 02:24 PM   #431
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Really? I think after it became well-known that smoking causes cancer they were not so much in the business of outright fabrication but rather highlighting any slightest doubts such as how correlation does not necessarily equal causation.
Claiming there is no evidence indicating tobacco causes cancer, when you know there is and that, in fact, tobacco does cause cancer is an outright fabrication. Claiming there is no evidence indicating cigarette smoking is addictive, when you know there is and, in fact, smoking cigarettes is addictive, is an outright fabrication. Intentionally creating doubt and confusion in the public your industry is fully aware doesn't actually exist in the scientific community , is outright fabrication as well.
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Old 19th January 2020, 02:32 PM   #432
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Here is the video of both missiles and impacts.

I couldn't see the NYTIMES one because of subscription requirements, so I don't know if it is the same video.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=sJWeS_1579120801


There's also a truly gruesome cellphone video showing parts of the aircraft and what remains of several bodies. The only reason I'm mentioning it is that the one body shown which has remained more-or-less intact and clothed shows clear signs of soot and/or smoke colouration. This lends yet more credence (if any were even necessary) to the idea that this was a missile strike - as opposed to a mechanical failure or pilot error.
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Old 19th January 2020, 02:48 PM   #433
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Claiming there is no evidence indicating tobacco causes cancer, when you know there is and that, in fact, tobacco does cause cancer is an outright fabrication. Claiming there is no evidence indicating cigarette smoking is addictive, when you know there is and, in fact, smoking cigarettes is addictive, is an outright fabrication. Intentionally creating doubt and confusion in the public your industry is fully aware doesn't actually exist in the scientific community , is outright fabrication as well.
Yes, but claiming that there is no “proof” as opposed to “no evidence” is the type of subtle, technically true, propaganda that they engaged in, that there are disagreements among scientists about the dangers of secondhand smoke, that Jim is 93 and smoked since he was 7. These can all be true, while not actually arguing that smoking is healthy.
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Old 19th January 2020, 04:27 PM   #434
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Yes, but claiming that there is no “proof” as opposed to “no evidence” is the type of subtle, technically true, propaganda that they engaged in, that there are disagreements among scientists about the dangers of secondhand smoke, that Jim is 93 and smoked since he was 7. These can all be true, while not actually arguing that smoking is healthy.
I understand, but what the tobacco industry was engaged in wasn't just "technically true, but lies of omission propaganda". It was outright lying. In addition to the blatant fabrications, they also participated in the behavior you describe.
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Old 19th January 2020, 07:57 PM   #435
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Not necessarily. The tobacco industry were masters of effective propaganda by telling people good news about their bad habits. All of it absurd fabrication.
And yet in the end truth won out simply because it was very hard to come up with a sensible and believable narrative that could explain not just why smoking was not harmful but a good idea.
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Old 19th January 2020, 11:28 PM   #436
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
And yet in the end truth won out simply because it was very hard to come up with a sensible and believable narrative that could explain not just why smoking was not harmful but a good idea.
The truth won out eventually, as the industry knew was inevitable. The idea behind their propaganda campaign was to delay that time as long as possible, and sell a ton of product during the lag. And it worked amazingly well, as they bought several reputable doctors and scientists to help them do it.

Obviously, 752 is a different scenario, as Iran had a different plan in mind, and it failed miserably.
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