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Tags Coronavirus , vaccine , vaccines

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Old 10th January 2021, 07:35 AM   #321
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
It isn't a question of who happens to think what. What does the evidence say?

I've seen talking heads say that probably our DNA will end up incorporating the corona virus ultimately, much like we apparently have incorporated whole hosts of parasites already within our DNA, to become part of us (usually harmless vestigial parts). I suppose in that sense Meadmaker is correct, and the virus will never be "eliminated". (Unless I'm mistaken in how I've understood those talking heads?)

So far as "animal reservoirs", I myself have no idea. Are either of you sure of your (contrasting) POVs? It would be interesting to know which is which. Common sense would suggest that if bats have given the thing to us once, the bats at least will continue to carry the virus, even if not other animals, given their high metabolism makes them impervious to ill effects from the virus.

As for my reference to "endgame" in my earlier post, I was referring, loosely I guess, to the endgame as far as the pandemic, not so much the virus itself. My understanding is that only herd immunity will do that for us, and the virus is only the means to that end. Simply getting jabbed won't mean that all's back to normal already, for those who've gotten jabbed. (See also my post immediately preceding.) At least that was my layman's understanding.

Incorporation of the viral RNA into our genome isn't relevant to this issue.

Protection from the vaccines is likely to be significantly longer than many people speculate, due to memory B cells, and cell mediated immunity (a lot harder to measure than antibody titres). Bear in mind the entire point of the immune system is to build up memory cells so that a subsequent challenge can be met by the swift production of large amounts of new antibody, not to keep antibody circulating indefinitely in the absence of challenge. I think the duration will be long enough to allow herd immunity to be reached by any reasonably organised vaccination campaign. Bear in mind that the percentage of non-responders is already factored in the calculations.

As to the possibility that vaccination will not stop a vaccinated person spreading the virus, that is being addressed by the development of intranasal vaccines that promote the formation of mucosal IgA, which is the way many respiratory vaccines have been going in recent decades. That will stop transmission and these vaccines will be available later.

While we know that cats and mink and probably other animals can become infected with this virus, that's not the same as there being an actual animal reservoir in existence. I believe the mink thing was stamped out, and indeed mink are never going to be an efficient transmission vector for this thing due to them being cooped up in cages or rare and running shy of people in the wild. I haven't heard much about cats recently and my impression is that one isn't going anywhere, probably just a few opportunistic infections not contributing to significant spread. It would be a good idea to eradicate this thing before a genuinely problematic animal reservoir develops though. It would save a lot of slaughter, which is what will happen if a real problem develops.

This thing is definitely eradicable, but it needs determination and strategic action. In particular it needs the continuation of surveillance, testing, contact-tracing and isolation (where appropriate) well beyond the point where most people are vaccinated, to get the last pockets of it.

I can foresee a scenario where vaccinated people are going about their usual business but still-circulating virus continues to pick off the refuesniks (cry me a river) and, more worryingly, people whose vaccination didn't "take", the immunosuppressed, and those with contraindicating allergies. In other words, the people who would be protected by herd immunity if only the refuseniks weren't preventing that being achieved. This is more likely in the USA in my opinion.
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Old 10th January 2021, 09:18 AM   #322
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
An account of how the vaccine is distributed around the world. Hint: Everybody does a better job than the U.S.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...a90_story.html
Not sure if that is true. Last time I checked, Canada (where I am) has actually been slower in rolling out the vaccine than the U.S. despite the fact that we approved the Pfizer vaccine before they did, and despite our "socialized" health care system.

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Old 10th January 2021, 09:35 AM   #323
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Incorporation of the viral RNA into our genome isn't relevant to this issue.

Thanks for the detailed, informative response!

Agreed, inconsequential incorporation of viral RNA into our genome is ...inconsequential.


Quote:
Protection from the vaccines is likely to be significantly longer than many people speculate, due to memory B cells, and cell mediated immunity (a lot harder to measure than antibody titres). Bear in mind the entire point of the immune system is to build up memory cells so that a subsequent challenge can be met by the swift production of large amounts of new antibody, not to keep antibody circulating indefinitely in the absence of challenge. I think the duration will be long enough to allow herd immunity to be reached by any reasonably organised vaccination campaign. Bear in mind that the percentage of non-responders is already factored in the calculations.

If as you say the protection does last longer than many are speculating, and if one single set of two doses might suffice to steer us to herd immunity, then that would be very heartening indeed!

But how are you so confident of this? The talking heads and random popular articles don't seem agreed on this. Can we be confident your opinion is the reasonable one, or might that too amount to speculation?

And also, in your estimate, for around how long, at a minimum, do you think the vaccine might remain effective, how many months?


Quote:
As to the possibility that vaccination will not stop a vaccinated person spreading the virus, that is being addressed by the development of intranasal vaccines that promote the formation of mucosal IgA, which is the way many respiratory vaccines have been going in recent decades. That will stop transmission and these vaccines will be available later.

Great! I'd heard of the intranasal thing, but didn't know that is likely to block infection altogether.


Quote:
While we know that cats and mink and probably other animals can become infected with this virus, that's not the same as there being an actual animal reservoir in existence. I believe the mink thing was stamped out, and indeed mink are never going to be an efficient transmission vector for this thing due to them being cooped up in cages or rare and running shy of people in the wild. I haven't heard much about cats recently and my impression is that one isn't going anywhere, probably just a few opportunistic infections not contributing to significant spread. It would be a good idea to eradicate this thing before a genuinely problematic animal reservoir develops though. It would save a lot of slaughter, which is what will happen if a real problem develops.

Okay. What about bats, though, the creatures from whom we got it in the first place?


Quote:
This thing is definitely eradicable, but it needs determination and strategic action. In particular it needs the continuation of surveillance, testing, contact-tracing and isolation (where appropriate) well beyond the point where most people are vaccinated, to get the last pockets of it.

Yep, this, absolutely!! That had my (not particularly well-informed) take on this, too. It isn't as if you take your jabs, toss away your masks, and go back to life as usual, absolutely not! That will come later, much later, after herd immunity is achieved.


Quote:
I can foresee a scenario where vaccinated people are going about their usual business but still-circulating virus continues to pick off the refuesniks (cry me a river) and, more worryingly, people whose vaccination didn't "take", the immunosuppressed, and those with contraindicating allergies. In other words, the people who would be protected by herd immunity if only the refuseniks weren't preventing that being achieved. This is more likely in the USA in my opinion.

I guess in an ideal world people would get vaccinated, and continue with every pandemic protocol, going out and mingling only when and only to the extent absolutely necessary. Wait this out a few more months, until the thing's wiped out for good.

But, as you say, we don't live in an ideal world. And agreed, the "refuseniks" would deserve it if they took ill, or worse, but yeah, the "immunosupressed", and the ~10% (or more) whose vaccines "didn't take", their continuing to go down with Covid 19, that would be a real pity.
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Old 10th January 2021, 10:19 AM   #324
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
If as you say the protection does last longer than many are speculating, and if one single set of two doses might suffice to steer us to herd immunity, then that would be very heartening indeed!

But how are you so confident of this? The talking heads and random popular articles don't seem agreed on this. Can we be confident your opinion is the reasonable one, or might that too amount to speculation?

And also, in your estimate, for around how long, at a minimum, do you think the vaccine might remain effective, how many months?

I'm not a talking head or a random popular article. I spent the latter part of my career in disease surveillance and disease control. I have wide experience of the use of vaccines in disease control and eradication and taught this at undergraduate level. Now of course I may be wrong but it would surprise me if the currently-produced vaccines don't provide at least a year's protection for the majority of those vaccinated. However, stroking one's beard with a concerned expression seems to attract the broadcasters and get published, and also people are understandably wary of making optimistic pronouncements "on the record" that later turn out not to be correct.

Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
Great! I'd heard of the intranasal thing, but didn't know that is likely to block infection altogether.

It's early days, but we'll see how the products perform. It may be worth giving both parenteral and intra-nasal vaccines in the early stages, at least to selected groups. I wouldn't be surprised if the intra-nasal vaccines become dominant in the later stages of elimination.

Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
Okay. What about bats, though, the creatures from whom we got it in the first place?

Do you get up close and personal with many bats on a daily basis? Really, it's very unlikely that wild bats will turn out to be a significant reservoir of infection for man in most countries. I can easily see how to deal with that, and frankly, again, they need to talk to the veterinary disease control experts about all this if it becomes relevant. We have been there, seen that, done that, and bought an entire wardrobe full of t-shirts.

Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
Yep, this, absolutely!! That had my (not particularly well-informed) take on this, too. It isn't as if you take your jabs, toss away your masks, and go back to life as usual, absolutely not! That will come later, much later, after herd immunity is achieved.

I only hope the politicians understand this, or will at least not get in the way of public health experts who understand this. If they don't, it really shouldn't be much later. It shouldn't take so long if it's planned strategically, and the time to get rid of this is now, before everyone becomes fatalistic about "it's never going to go away" and resistant to measures aimed at making it go away.

Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
I guess in an ideal world people would get vaccinated, and continue with every pandemic protocol, going out and mingling only when and only to the extent absolutely necessary. Wait this out a few more months, until the thing's wiped out for good.

But, as you say, we don't live in an ideal world. And agreed, the "refuseniks" would deserve it if they took ill, or worse, but yeah, the "immunosupressed", and the ~10% (or more) whose vaccines "didn't take", their continuing to go down with Covid 19, that would be a real pity.

There is every reason for optimism, but the important thing is to be aware of disease prevalence in your neighbourhood and act accordingly, as sensible people were doing in the summer. The crucial thing is that surveillance, testing, contact-tracing and isolation are continued until the virus is stamped out, not abandoned as soon as there's room in intensive care again.
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Old 10th January 2021, 11:15 AM   #325
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I'm not a talking head or a random popular article. I spent the latter part of my career in disease surveillance and disease control. I have wide experience of the use of vaccines in disease control and eradication and taught this at undergraduate level. Now of course I may be wrong but it would surprise me if the currently-produced vaccines don't provide at least a year's protection for the majority of those vaccinated. However, stroking one's beard with a concerned expression seems to attract the broadcasters and get published, and also people are understandably wary of making optimistic pronouncements "on the record" that later turn out not to be correct.

No, I've read your posts, and have had some limited interaction with you before this; and yes, I do know, basis what you've posted in the past, that you have some technical knowledge in this field. That said, and while I'm not really contesting your opinion, I was curious why you think this. My cursory reading (and listening) on this -- and that's admittedly not a great base to build an opinion on -- leads me to think this issue does not have an answer, yet.

A general opinion, even from an expert, while not worthless (as it would be coming from a layman) is still no more than informed speculation, it seems to me. If you have good reason to say this, I'll be happy to update my own views on this, to your more optimistic opinion.


Quote:
It's early days, but we'll see how the products perform. It may be worth giving both parenteral and intra-nasal vaccines in the early stages, at least to selected groups. I wouldn't be surprised if the intra-nasal vaccines become dominant in the later stages of elimination.

But you are saying that the intra-nasal vaccine is likely to stop the infection altogether, right, and not just limit the symptoms?


Quote:
Do you get up close and personal with many bats on a daily basis? Really, it's very unlikely that wild bats will turn out to be a significant reservoir of infection for man in most countries. I can easily see how to deal with that, and frankly, again, they need to talk to the veterinary disease control experts about all this if it becomes relevant. We have been there, seen that, done that, and bought an entire wardrobe full of t-shirts.

Sure, point taken. Even those who eat those things will now know to keep away from them!


Quote:
I only hope the politicians understand this, or will at least not get in the way of public health experts who understand this. If they don't, it really shouldn't be much later. It shouldn't take so long if it's planned strategically, and the time to get rid of this is now, before everyone becomes fatalistic about "it's never going to go away" and resistant to measures aimed at making it go away.




There is every reason for optimism, but the important thing is to be aware of disease prevalence in your neighbourhood and act accordingly, as sensible people were doing in the summer. The crucial thing is that surveillance, testing, contact-tracing and isolation are continued until the virus is stamped out, not abandoned as soon as there's room in intensive care again.

Yep, fingers crossed. Things do look more hopeful now, in more ways than one!!
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Old 10th January 2021, 11:46 AM   #326
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I'm not insisting I'm right, I'm just saying what I think is most probable.

This guy needs shooting, though.

Quote:
A virus expert says coronavirus is not likely to go away, but vaccines mean we will be able to live with it in a similar way to flu. Professor Peter Horby tell Andrew Marr the early signs from vaccination are "very encouraging" and people should not feel like they need to "hide under the duvet".

He says: "The one virus we've managed to get rid of, smallpox, had very different characteristics to this virus... this one will not go away. "I think we are going to have to live with it... it may well become more of an endemic.

It won't "go away", but it can be forced out by the right public health measures. If "advice" from "experts" like this cause the politicians not to take the right public health measures, we're in deep doo-doo for some time.

He's another one talking as if this is similar to flu. It ain't. The mortality rate is much higher and "long covid" and the paediatric complications are also serious problems. It's also not really seasonal in the way flu is. But the covid vaccines are a lot better than the flu vaccines which is a big bonus.

It's idiots like this that will doom us all, as the politicians are likely to resist taking the structured public health measures necessary to eliminate the virus if they've been suckered into believing it's all a waste of time. If we give it our best shot but for some reason we fail, well so be it. But not even trying is a horrific prospect.
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Old 10th January 2021, 01:18 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Huh? Is Fauci also on your lists of idiots in need of death? Why are in the world are you looking to kill a leading scientist and one of the top evidence based investigators in the field? You're the idiot if you think this guy needs death and if you think your rhetoric about shooting him is appropriate right now the you are the dangerous one.
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Old 10th January 2021, 01:45 PM   #328
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You're distressingly literate, you know.

Anyone who tells politicians that it's impossible to eliminate the virus and we should just resign ourselves to its constant presence is patently either lying or utterly deluded.
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Old 10th January 2021, 01:48 PM   #329
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
You're distressingly literate, you know.

Anyone who tells politicians that it's impossible to eliminate the virus and we should just resign ourselves to its constant presence is patently either lying or utterly deluded.
So Fauci and Horby, who have both said exactly that, are lying or utterly deluded?
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Old 10th January 2021, 01:58 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I'm not insisting I'm right, I'm just saying what I think is most probable.

This guy needs shooting, though.

It won't "go away", but it can be forced out by the right public health measures. If "advice" from "experts" like this cause the politicians not to take the right public health measures, we're in deep doo-doo for some time.

He's another one talking as if this is similar to flu. It ain't. The mortality rate is much higher and "long covid" and the paediatric complications are also serious problems. It's also not really seasonal in the way flu is. But the covid vaccines are a lot better than the flu vaccines which is a big bonus.

It's idiots like this that will doom us all, as the politicians are likely to resist taking the structured public health measures necessary to eliminate the virus if they've been suckered into believing it's all a waste of time. If we give it our best shot but for some reason we fail, well so be it. But not even trying is a horrific prospect.
Rolfe,

I do not disagree with you in theory, but the real world of human medicine is different from veterinary medicine. I know I mentioned the option to cull in zoonotic events, and you rightly said this was a rarely used option, just in HPAI or foot and mouth, or swine flu etc. But the reality is domestic animals are easier to control than feral humans. Global animal health regulations may be better enforced than those on humans.

I do not think that in the immediate future (say 5 years) covid is eradicable. If you consider how long we had an effective vaccine for smallpox before eradication (> 200 yr), and that we have still not eradicated polio > 50 yr since a highly effective vaccine became available, the likohood of covid becoming eradicated seems low. The pandemics of flu, HIV and TB have not been eradicated.

The reality is once vaccination has lowered the health burden to a manageable level the governmental focus globally will be on global economic recovery. Covid will probably sink to the level of flu. It comes around every year, a few people die, and we annually vaccinate high risk groups and the rest rely on natural immunity.

You are right we could have eradicated covid like SARS, but we didn't and now I think we won't.
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Old 10th January 2021, 02:15 PM   #331
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I do not think that in the immediate future (say 5 years) covid is eradicable.
I did some googling to see how far off in space Rolfe is and you are in good company. I can't find a single medical source that thinks Covid can be eliminated. I can only find that idea on Trumpist political sources.

In a nutshell, the experts think that managing Covid will be similar to the strategies for managing flu and measles.
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Old 10th January 2021, 02:54 PM   #332
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Smallpox and polio were eliminated from the developed world decades ago, and disease control science has come a long way since then. I'm not saying I don't care about third world countries, although I do note that some of them have done comparatively well with covid, but to imagine that it's impossible to eliminate this virus from somewhere like the British Isles, with a concerted vaccine-facilitated eradication programme and keep it out with proper control of incoming travellers is defeatist.

The danger with these defeatist, fatalist attitudes is that governments don't even try. It will then become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Dammit, we did virtually eliminate the virus once already from Scotland, with no vaccine, and we'd have succeeded if we'd instituted proper border controls. To shrug and say that now we have effective vaccines we shouldn't even try to repeat what we managed in the summer is ridiculous.
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Old 10th January 2021, 02:55 PM   #333
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
So Fauci and Horby, who have both said exactly that, are lying or utterly deluded?

Yes. Or, of course, promoting a prophecy that will become self-fulfilling if they're listened to.
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Old 10th January 2021, 02:59 PM   #334
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
I did some googling to see how far off in space Rolfe is and you are in good company. I can't find a single medical source that thinks Covid can be eliminated. I can only find that idea on Trumpist political sources.

In a nutshell, the experts think that managing Covid will be similar to the strategies for managing flu and measles.

Once more, this is neither flu nor measles. There's too much comparison going on with subjects people are familiar with, and it's doing no good at all.

I'll point out again that Scotland was absolutely over-run by covid in the spring. We had huge numbers of cases and deaths, it was absolutely appalling, quite similar to now actually. But without any vaccine at all we virtually eliminated the virus from the country over the summer, but stupidly left the borders open and let it back in again.

You really think that what was actually done once, without the benefit of a vaccine, is suddenly not even worth trying now there are good vaccines?
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Old 10th January 2021, 03:08 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
The reality is once vaccination has lowered the health burden to a manageable level the governmental focus globally will be on global economic recovery. Covid will probably (???) sink to the level (???) of flu. It comes around every year, a few people die, and we annually vaccinate high risk groups and the rest rely on natural immunity.
One thing is what governments will be focused on, another thing is what is actually possible.
The British and South African mutations have already made it clear that this disease is still unpredictable - unlike the flu.
Have you considered that it is about more than fatality? Everybody is at risk of becoming a long-hauler.
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Old 10th January 2021, 03:20 PM   #336
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Smallpox and polio were eliminated from the developed world decades ago, and disease control science has come a long way since then.
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Once more, this is neither flu nor measles.

Could you just do some googling on this subject and find out exactly why flu and measles are more comparable to Covid than smallpox or polio in the context of what you are talking about.
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Old 10th January 2021, 03:21 PM   #337
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Yes. Or, of course, promoting a prophecy that will become self-fulfilling if they're listened to.
So you feel qualified to refute two of the top experts in the field on this matter. And BTW it's far more than two, I can't even find a single medical source that agrees with you on this.
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Old 10th January 2021, 03:36 PM   #338
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You're not looking in the right places. There are strong calls for elimination and a zero-covid strategy from many experts.
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Old 10th January 2021, 03:40 PM   #339
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
You're not looking in the right places. There are strong calls for elimination and a zero-covid strategy from many experts.
Cite one.
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Old 10th January 2021, 03:43 PM   #340
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Could you just do some googling on this subject and find out exactly why flu and measles are more comparable to Covid than smallpox or polio in the context of what you are talking about.

Perhaps the single most important feature is that covid is a much nastier disease than either measles or influenza.

Disease elimination is more about the strength of the desirability of doing it. We could eliminate flu if we wanted to, as we've seen, by implementing lockdowns, distancing, masks etc. At the moment the consensus is that the disease is not sufficiently severe for this to be an acceptable price. (Of course flu would also come back again every winter, which covid will not do in the same way.)

Smallpox and polio were/are sufficiently severe/fatal diseases for it to be worthwhile making a concerted effort to get rid of them. So far, influenza is not seen in the same way. I think we'll get round to measles, possibly after rabies, but even so it was indeed eliminated from the country and only the Wakefield fanbois let it back in.

This thing isn't smallpox but it's up there in the same league as polio. Life with the constant possibility of becoming infected with covid is not a prospect we should be contemplating without a fight.
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Old 10th January 2021, 03:44 PM   #341
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Cite one.

Practically anyone who has contributed to Independent Sage. They have a whole web site and weekly podcasts.
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Old 10th January 2021, 03:47 PM   #342
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
We could eliminate flu if we wanted to, as we've seen, by implementing lockdowns, distancing, masks etc. At the moment the consensus is that the disease is not sufficiently severe for this to be an acceptable price. (Of course flu would also come back again every winter, which covid will not do in the same way.)
Am I understanding these sentences correctly? You're saying we can eliminate flu except it will come back every year?
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Old 10th January 2021, 03:48 PM   #343
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Practically anyone who has contributed to Independent Sage. They have a whole web site and weekly podcasts.
Cite one.
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Old 10th January 2021, 04:00 PM   #344
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Practically anyone who has contributed to Independent Sage. They have a whole web site and weekly podcasts.
I can't find any Independent SAGE articles advocating elimination in the same sense as smallpox. In fact I can only find articles saying it necessarily has to be diffrent from smallpox. They make a distinction between elimination and eradication that you don't appear to be making since you keep comparing to smallpox. It's apparent to me they don't expect this to be the same as smallpox.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/zero...us-elimination

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Old 10th January 2021, 04:03 PM   #345
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Smallpox has been eradicated worldwide. We're not there yet with covid. There's a lot of water between endemic disease in developed countries and worldwide eradication.

You don't seem to understand what elimination means. We did it, in Scotland, in the summer, without a vaccine. Numerous countries have done it, without a vaccine. Now you're saying it's impossible, with a vaccine?
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Old 10th January 2021, 04:08 PM   #346
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Even the brief Wikipedia article about Independent SAGE contains a sentence about why Covid can't be like smallpox.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_SAGE

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Old 10th January 2021, 04:15 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Looks like medically no. Today, I got strong recommendation from my doctor to get vaccination despite having Covid infection. (Although I suspect I will be in one of the last groups)
Somewhat related: Spoke to a friend who works at Cedar Sinai in LA. If you get the vaccine (in Los Angeles), and then test positive in the days/weeks thereafter, you wont get the second dose. You must wait 3 months and then start again.

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Old 10th January 2021, 04:23 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
You don't seem to understand what elimination means. We did it, in Scotland, in the summer, without a vaccine. Numerous countries have done it, without a vaccine. Now you're saying it's impossible, with a vaccine?
Could you demonstrate that you know what elimination means? The Horby quote that you took issue was about smallpox so it's reasonable to assume you meant this could be dealt with like smallpox. Is that what you mean or not?


From now on, I'll use eradicate to mean presumably gone in the wild and eliminate to mean "under control and striking at low levels" and low means not in the top 10 causes of death.
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Old 10th January 2021, 06:00 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Smallpox and polio were eliminated from the developed world decades ago, and disease control science has come a long way since then. I'm not saying I don't care about third world countries, although I do note that some of them have done comparatively well with covid, but to imagine that it's impossible to eliminate this virus from somewhere like the British Isles, with a concerted vaccine-facilitated eradication programme and keep it out with proper control of incoming travellers is defeatist.

The danger with these defeatist, fatalist attitudes is that governments don't even try. It will then become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Dammit, we did virtually eliminate the virus once already from Scotland, with no vaccine, and we'd have succeeded if we'd instituted proper border controls. To shrug and say that now we have effective vaccines we shouldn't even try to repeat what we managed in the summer is ridiculous.
This is true. Australia has very few cases of Covid 19. In fact, more people, in Australia, who have Covid 19 got it from overseas. Yet the number of people who come to Australia is only a very small fraction of the population. We would have eliminated it entirely if we banned all people from returning to Australia as the main causes of Covid 19 outbreaks are leaks from quarantine.

No reason why the UK could not do the same thing. We were lucky and then we capitalized that luck. It was late coming to Australia and then we had a lockdown which eliminated it from most of Australia.
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Old 10th January 2021, 07:36 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I'm not insisting I'm right, I'm just saying what I think is most probable.

This guy needs shooting, though.

It won't "go away", but it can be forced out by the right public health measures. If "advice" from "experts" like this cause the politicians not to take the right public health measures, we're in deep doo-doo for some time.

He's another one talking as if this is similar to flu. It ain't. The mortality rate is much higher and "long covid" and the paediatric complications are also serious problems. It's also not really seasonal in the way flu is. But the covid vaccines are a lot better than the flu vaccines which is a big bonus.

It's idiots like this that will doom us all, as the politicians are likely to resist taking the structured public health measures necessary to eliminate the virus if they've been suckered into believing it's all a waste of time. If we give it our best shot but for some reason we fail, well so be it. But not even trying is a horrific prospect.
Going back to what you first posted.

Absolutely nothing you've posted excuses you saying this guy needs to be shot or that he is an idiot that will doom us all.
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Old 10th January 2021, 07:42 PM   #351
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Australians will now start getting vaccinated in February.

At first it will be the Pfizer vaccine but most Australians will be getting the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine which is being produced in Australia.

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/13045960

(ABC News Australia.)
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Old 10th January 2021, 10:15 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I'm not insisting I'm right, I'm just saying what I think is most probable.

Look, I don't want to beat this thing to death. Nor am I equipped to hold a technical debate with you on this, and nor do I even want to do that, at all, because I don't think I myself know enough to either agree or disagree on my own steam. Thing is, I was very interested to know -- for obvious reasons -- why, on what basis, you're saying the vaccines for this virus will hold longer than the flu shot, for instance, maybe even as much as a year. And, at this point, it seems all you're saying is "I know a thing or two about this, and although I don't have any specifics, generally speaking this is what appears likely to me."

Am I right, is that what you're effectively saying, or do you have any specifics? Because even if you don't, fair enough: absolutely, I'll keep in mind that, although no one really knows, yet, but some experts at least do think the protection from the current lot of vaccines is likely to be more ...durable.

(And yes, point taken, we're throwing everything we've got at this virus, even as it mutates away and tries to dance around us, so that, given the quality and sheer quantity of research, vaccines are likely to be more effective this time around. Hopefully.

Although, on the flip side, note that despite the desperate fightback by scientists, no actual direct cure has yet been found. So that, it seems to me, that we've got so many vaccines going at this time is a function of our collective efforts, sure, absolutely, but also, to an extent, of sheer happenstance! I'm saying, despite all we're doing, should we be so ...sanguine, that the vaccines will indeed end up durable enough to last beyond six months?)


Quote:
This guy needs shooting, though.

Quote:
A virus expert says coronavirus is not likely to go away, but vaccines mean we will be able to live with it in a similar way to flu. Professor Peter Horby tell Andrew Marr the early signs from vaccination are "very encouraging" and people should not feel like they need to "hide under the duvet".

He says: "The one virus we've managed to get rid of, smallpox, had very different characteristics to this virus... this one will not go away. "I think we are going to have to live with it... it may well become more of an endemic.

It won't "go away", but it can be forced out by the right public health measures. If "advice" from "experts" like this cause the politicians not to take the right public health measures, we're in deep doo-doo for some time.

He's another one talking as if this is similar to flu. It ain't. The mortality rate is much higher and "long covid" and the paediatric complications are also serious problems. It's also not really seasonal in the way flu is. But the covid vaccines are a lot better than the flu vaccines which is a big bonus.

It's idiots like this that will doom us all, as the politicians are likely to resist taking the structured public health measures necessary to eliminate the virus if they've been suckered into believing it's all a waste of time. If we give it our best shot but for some reason we fail, well so be it. But not even trying is a horrific prospect.

While we may well actually end up with the kind of scenario he describes, in the portion you've quoted, so that he may not really be 'wrong'; but I agree, that will only be if we lack the collective will to do what is needed, and stamp this vile thing out. And yes, I agree, not even trying our damnedest best is indeed a horrifying prospect.
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Old 10th January 2021, 10:18 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
I did some googling to see how far off in space Rolfe is and you are in good company. I can't find a single medical source that thinks Covid can be eliminated. I can only find that idea on Trumpist political sources.

In a nutshell, the experts think that managing Covid will be similar to the strategies for managing flu and measles.

I'm no expert, but what strategies we use, and what outcome those strategies yield, is up to us, isn't it?

If we throw everything we've got at this virus, both as far as research and also as far as policy, then I don't see why we shouldn't be able to isolate the bugger and send it away to extinction.

In practice, we may not end up doing that, but that will only be because we lack the collective will to do this. At least that's what it looks like to me.
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Old 10th January 2021, 11:55 PM   #354
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
So you feel qualified to refute two of the top experts in the field on this matter. And BTW it's far more than two, I can't even find a single medical source that agrees with you on this.
What Rolfe highlights is a functioning reality in New Zealand. Scotland could have got to the same place. Look at Australia and the policing of State borders.
They are doing heavy lifting to eliminate.
New Zealand has no intention of living with covid but....
Too slow to close the borders right now while the rest of the world sorts its **** out.
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Old 11th January 2021, 03:14 AM   #355
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Changing the subject slightly, Australia has a plan as to who to vaccinate in what order.

Here is the pdf of the plan. Looks very sensible.

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/defa...t-strategy.pdf

Would have thought this thread would have several similar documents. But not seen any. Do other countries have such a plan? Or is it first come, first served?

Edit. Page 4 of 7 is the critical page.
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Old 11th January 2021, 03:43 AM   #356
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The UK's plan: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833
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Old 11th January 2021, 07:52 AM   #357
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
I'm no expert, but what strategies we use, and what outcome those strategies yield, is up to us, isn't it?
Huh? Not sure who "us" is. Obviously there are a variety of strategies being debated. Outcomes are obviously constrained by facts, potentially including some facts we don't even know yet.

Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
If we throw everything we've got at this virus, both as far as research and also as far as policy, then I don't see why we shouldn't be able to isolate the bugger and send it away to extinction.
In practice, we may not end up doing that, but that will only be because we lack the collective will to do this. At least that's what it looks like to me.
Well, some expert opinions from a variety of sides have been cited upstream.

I don't see what justifies certainty we can drive this virus to extinction. We've only done that with one virus so far. This virus has some complications that polio didn't have.
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Old 11th January 2021, 08:18 AM   #358
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
What Rolfe highlights is a functioning reality in New Zealand. Scotland could have got to the same place. Look at Australia and the policing of State borders.
They are doing heavy lifting to eliminate.
New Zealand has no intention of living with covid but....
Too slow to close the borders right now while the rest of the world sorts its **** out.
OK. I'm not sure what your point is, unless you're just trying to clarify Rolfe's posts. You and Chanakya seem to be posting reality based opinions.

Does this relate to Rolfe's opinion that people like Horby and Fauci are deluded idiots and liars that are dooming us all and (rhetorically, I hope) need to be shot?

I'm certainly fine with the idea that there may be plausible ways to eradicate or eliminate the virus and those should be discussed. My understanding however, is that there are no guarantees about either of those and we should also be planning on managing the virus for a long time because that may simply be the situation that reality inflicts on us. And also I don't see how Horby and Fauci would be obstacles to eradication/eliminations efforts simply because they are planning for a different possibility. What they are doing could contribute to all three possible strategies.

I'm at a total loss as to why Horby and Fauci should be viewed as idiotic deluded liars dooming the human race and would like to the evidence and expert opinion to back that up. Rolfe didn't supply a link but did name Independent SAGE as a source. I do not see anything from that group that leads me to think that group thinks Fauci and Horby are deluded idiotic liars. And while I also seem to think Independent SAGE consists of reliable respectable authorities I also see no reason to think they know everything or have a crystal ball that would allow to know things that currently are unknown about this disease.

And, there is also the point that calling for people to be shot, even rhetorically, is really bad when those people are actually receiving death threats and the people sending those deaths are doing things like, oh, I don't know, planning insurrection.

So do you have any scientific evidence or expert opinion that Fauci and Horby are deluded idiotic liars dooming the human race because they are planning for a future where the virus still exists?

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
What Rolfe highlights is a functioning reality in New Zealand.
And in that reality, the virus still exists. In the technical jargon this is called "elimination" and not "eradication".

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Old 11th January 2021, 09:25 AM   #359
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Smallpox and polio were eliminated from the developed world decades ago, and disease control science has come a long way since then. I'm not saying I don't care about third world countries, although I do note that some of them have done comparatively well with covid, but to imagine that it's impossible to eliminate this virus from somewhere like the British Isles, with a concerted vaccine-facilitated eradication programme and keep it out with proper control of incoming travellers is defeatist.

The danger with these defeatist, fatalist attitudes is that governments don't even try. It will then become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I think there is a difference between "Should we work to eradicate Covid" and "Is it realistic to expect that we will eradicate Covid".

Covid is a disease that, while deadly in some and causing long term consequences in others, can also appear asymptomatic. Its also a disease that often doesn't kill by itself, but as a complication of other diseases. This makes it a lot easier for people to downplay the severity. (Just look at the difficulty the U.S. has in getting people to wear masks.) Its also a disease for which previous infections may not prevent future infections. Because of that, eradication may be impossible, as there will probably always be a substantial pool of people who can get affected.

I don't think any medical expert should be blamed for acknowledging that possibility, and indeed it is something that they should plan for.

Their reactions to the disease probably won't change either way.... they'll still probably want people to get vaccinated (regardless of whether they think the disease can be eradicated or not), they will still want people to quarantine themselves if affected, and use contact tracing to prevent the spread.
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Old 11th January 2021, 12:37 PM   #360
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Even the brief Wikipedia article about Independent SAGE contains a sentence about why Covid can't be like smallpox.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_SAGE
Which sentence is that?
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