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Tags Coronavirus , vaccine

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Old 26th January 2021, 05:51 AM   #561
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Isreal finally on decline.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/

And for the first time, there is a chance, it will be the last peak. Worth watching !
Just to add to this:
Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot

Interesting that they appear to be seeing a significant effect even from the first shot.

Quote:
Vaccines are quickly averting serious cases of COVID-19 among the most vulnerable members of society, an Israeli healthcare provider has indicated.

The full effects of Pfizer’s vaccine are only slated to kick in around a month after the first shot, but data from Israel, home to the world’s fastest vaccination drive, has already shown that there is a stark drop in infections even before this point.

Attracting widespread international interest by sharing early data, Maccabi Healthcare Services reported earlier this month that it has seen a 60 percent reduction in coronavirus infections three weeks after the first shot is administered.
. . .

The decrease in hospital admissions is swift after vaccination, Maccabi suggests in its latest data, finding that hospitalizations start to fall sharply from Day 18 after people receive the first shot. Galia Rahav, head of infectious diseases at Israel’s largest hospital, Sheba Medical Center, described the data as “very important.”
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Old 26th January 2021, 05:49 PM   #562
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Just a bit of an update on our Kiwi case, who appears to have kept the infection entirely to herself, now that all close contacts have come back negative.

The woman herself has recovered, with no symptoms for 72 hours. She clearly had a very mild dose that never got near her lungs. Now, if we can just figure why some people are like that and others aren't...
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Old 26th January 2021, 11:59 PM   #563
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just a bit of an update on our Kiwi case, who appears to have kept the infection entirely to herself, now that all close contacts have come back negative.

The woman herself has recovered, with no symptoms for 72 hours. She clearly had a very mild dose that never got near her lungs. Now, if we can just figure why some people are like that and others aren't...
Bill Clinton.
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Old 27th January 2021, 02:14 AM   #564
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just a bit of an update on our Kiwi case, who appears to have kept the infection entirely to herself, now that all close contacts have come back negative.

The woman herself has recovered, with no symptoms for 72 hours. She clearly had a very mild dose that never got near her lungs. Now, if we can just figure why some people are like that and others aren't...
Possibly variations in certain genes responsible for early response to infection and inflammation during infection?

See here - https://www.phgfoundation.org/blog/f...evere-covid-19

Whilst lack of vit D might also increase severity, the massive differences between the infection severity would seem to have a more fundamental reason than that.
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Old 27th January 2021, 03:11 AM   #565
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Bill Clinton.
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Old 27th January 2021, 03:15 AM   #566
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Is there yet any insight as to why age is such a big factor in the risk of death from Covid-19?
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Old 27th January 2021, 03:30 AM   #567
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Bill Clinton claimed to be exposed to marijuana smoke but never inhaled it.
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Old 27th January 2021, 08:08 AM   #568
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E. Lilly shows large CTR study with Bamlanivimab 80% reduction in risk. OR:.20, p:.00026

detailed powerpoint:
https://investor.lilly.com/static-fi...2-7ae4daf9e953

Note: Effectiveness is shown for early stage Covid-19 for people at high risk of progressing. It's an anti viral, monoclonal antibody so is effective when the virus is active, not later stage disease where steroids work better.
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Old 27th January 2021, 11:31 AM   #569
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Is there yet any insight as to why age is such a big factor in the risk of death from Covid-19?
Same as the reason 'flu knocks them off annually - weaker immune system, more health problems increase the chances of greater harm.

Take a look at Type II diabetes: 0.3% of people <24 have it, against 17% of people >75.

I don't see any surprise at all in the age demographic of Covid.
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Old 27th January 2021, 05:15 PM   #570
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More info on the NZ cases - right now we have three people who contracted Covid in the quarantine facility, all from the same source case. The SA variant virus.

All the four parties involved were out of their rooms at the same time, so aerosol spread looks to be by far the most likely method of infection.

What this says to me is that whereas the original Covid infection was being stopped by ordinary medical masks, the more-contagious variant is infectious enough that they won't do the trick any longer. Nothing changed at our quarantine facilities, and it's clear that earlier infections weren't being transmitted. This would explain the explosion of cases in SA and UK - what had been good enough earlier in the pandemic now isn't.

All details here, but in a messy blog: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300...ns-give-update
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Old 27th January 2021, 05:49 PM   #571
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Or it could be down to a single super-shedder. You don't know.
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Old 27th January 2021, 06:01 PM   #572
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
More info on the NZ cases - right now we have three people who contracted Covid in the quarantine facility, all from the same source case. The SA variant virus.

All the four parties involved were out of their rooms at the same time, so aerosol spread looks to be by far the most likely method of infection.

What this says to me is that whereas the original Covid infection was being stopped by ordinary medical masks, the more-contagious variant is infectious enough that they won't do the trick any longer. Nothing changed at our quarantine facilities, and it's clear that earlier infections weren't being transmitted. This would explain the explosion of cases in SA and UK - what had been good enough earlier in the pandemic now isn't.

All details here, but in a messy blog: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300...ns-give-update
Did anyone assess if these people were wearing masks properly?

Tight enough, nose staying covered?

I'd love to see that analysis on the spreaders and the contractors.
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Old 27th January 2021, 06:06 PM   #573
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Serena Williams full of praise for 'insane' quarantine measures before Australian Open

Quote:
Former tennis world No 1 Serena Williams has praised Australia’s “insane” quarantine procedures ahead of the Australia Open.

In an interview with late night US TV host Stephen Colbert the 23-time grand slam champion said Australia was “doing it right” when it came to border controls.

“Yeah, it’s super, super strict but it’s really good. So Australia right now has, the last I heard, they had zero cases of Covid,” she said, eliciting a “wow” from Colbert.

“Unbelievable, right? The whole country. So that is really amazing.

“So when we come here in Australia, everyone has to quarantine in a room for 14 days and it’s insane and it’s super intense but it’s super good because after that you can have a new normal like we were used to last year this time in the United States.”
It's not quite true that we have zero cases if COVID. We still have a handful in quarantine. But we have had no community transmission for, I think about 10 days now? Something like that.
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Old 27th January 2021, 06:51 PM   #574
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Did anyone assess if these people were wearing masks properly?
I'd bet not. I've seen plenty of coverage of the people and both staff and quarantined people are wearing medical masks only.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I'd love to see that analysis on the spreaders and the contractors.
Staff have had very few cases, but the more contagious varieties have only recently arrived here, so I expect more. The current three cases were all staying in the same hotel, but not sharing any space.

On the other hand, I have anecdotal evidence from medical professionals who have been through the system and are not impressed at the distancing or masking and who have been horrified at the behaviour of smokers in particular, sharing lighters and packets of fags.
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Old 28th January 2021, 01:00 AM   #575
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Serena Williams full of praise for 'insane' quarantine measures before Australian Open



It's not quite true that we have zero cases if COVID. We still have a handful in quarantine. But we have had no community transmission for, I think about 10 days now? Something like that.
We quarantine in a hotel and lose control.
You quarantine in a room.
The right to exercise is paramount we are told so another massive lockdown inevitable.

I am unspeakably annoyed.
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Old 28th January 2021, 01:34 AM   #576
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just a bit of an update on our Kiwi case, who appears to have kept the infection entirely to herself, now that all close contacts have come back negative.

The woman herself has recovered, with no symptoms for 72 hours. She clearly had a very mild dose that never got near her lungs. Now, if we can just figure why some people are like that and others aren't...

Maybe she kissed the person in the hotel on the mouth, but not any other contacts, even her husband.
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Old 28th January 2021, 02:13 AM   #577
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Same as the reason 'flu knocks them off annually - weaker immune system, more health problems increase the chances of greater harm.

Take a look at Type II diabetes: 0.3% of people <24 have it, against 17% of people >75.

I don't see any surprise at all in the age demographic of Covid.
Well, thank you for your guess, I was really asking if there’d been any research. If you’re correct, I would think there would be correlation with specific conditions, such as diabetes. Being over 60 myself, I am particularly interested to know my level of risk, since I don’t have any underlying conditions I’m aware of. I’m being told I’m at higher risk simply by being old, not for any other reason.
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Old 28th January 2021, 02:23 AM   #578
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Well, thank you for your guess...
It's not a guess, it's a fact - people's immune systems deteriorate as they age, just as their cardiovascular, muscular and skeletal systems deteriorate.

We know existing illnesses make a severe case or death more likely, and the age spread is pretty simply found.
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Old 28th January 2021, 02:26 AM   #579
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Well, thank you for your guess, I was really asking if there’d been any research. If you’re correct, I would think there would be correlation with specific conditions, such as diabetes. Being over 60 myself, I am particularly interested to know my level of risk, since I don’t have any underlying conditions I’m aware of. I’m being told I’m at higher risk simply by being old, not for any other reason.
The thymus shrinks and disappears with age I'm afraid.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymic...%20to%20mature.
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Old 28th January 2021, 06:55 AM   #580
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And yet the 1918 flu went for young strong people particularly badly.
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Old 28th January 2021, 06:58 AM   #581
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
And yet the 1918 flu went for young strong people particularly badly.
Intriguing isn't it? Hospitalised patients with COVID who are mostly elderly have very high antibody responses.
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Old 28th January 2021, 07:17 AM   #582
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I wouldn't look much into .. it's like asking 'but why is Covid respiratory disease'. Disease manifest somehow. It attacks this or that part of the body. It usually has one primary path of transmission. It usually attacks some groups more than others.
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Old 28th January 2021, 09:21 AM   #583
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I just meant, it's not a given that the elderly will suffer more from any and every disease just because of their age. It varies. There are other reasons.
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Old 28th January 2021, 11:13 AM   #584
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I'm trying not to be too pessimistic here, but the signs are all very bloody bad.

The UK/SA variants are one thing, but the newest Brazilian variant looks to be of real concern, and scientists are saying that right now.

Wired seems to have the best analysis: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...nt-from-brazil

and: https://www.wired.com/story/worrisom...rging-why-now/

And also some good info at the Beeb: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...g-the-pandemic

Beeb also takes a look at vaccines and how Covid may out-evolve them: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...-in-the-future
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Old 28th January 2021, 11:34 AM   #585
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Well, thank you for your guess, I was really asking if there’d been any research. If you’re correct, I would think there would be correlation with specific conditions, such as diabetes. Being over 60 myself, I am particularly interested to know my level of risk, since I don’t have any underlying conditions I’m aware of. I’m being told I’m at higher risk simply by being old, not for any other reason.
And also being male.


I suspect the research will reveal numerous factors. On the one hand, older folk in the UK are more likely to have had the BGC (TB jab) said to confer a good immune response to infections. OTOH:
  • general fitness levels - kids run around all day, adults do not tend to, older people are often even more inactive
  • levels of sunlight and Vitamin D - older people more likely to stay indoors if they do not need to go out to work, etc.
  • older people more likely to be in care homes where infectiousness is high
  • older people more likely to have dementia which is a form of frailty
  • older people have 8 x the risk of dying than younger age groups, this could be due to causal factors such as being in a care home or having underlying conditions or could be directly due to an aged immune system
  • Children's immune systems quickly recognise new alien viruses and act fast; an older person has grown out of this youthful advantage.

Just my 2p worth.
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Old 28th January 2021, 11:40 AM   #586
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
And yet the 1918 flu went for young strong people particularly badly.
Not necessarily. That could just be due to large numbers of soldiers in barracks together.

There is a view, that the Covid19 virus is now hitting younger age groups now that the older ones are dying out, it is the survival of the fittest mutations that adapt to target ever larger populations.
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Old 28th January 2021, 11:49 AM   #587
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'm trying not to be too pessimistic here, but the signs are all very bloody bad.

The UK/SA variants are one thing, but the newest Brazilian variant looks to be of real concern, and scientists are saying that right now.

Wired seems to have the best analysis: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...nt-from-brazil

and: https://www.wired.com/story/worrisom...rging-why-now/

And also some good info at the Beeb: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...g-the-pandemic

Beeb also takes a look at vaccines and how Covid may out-evolve them: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...-in-the-future

"May" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. There's not a lot of precedent for viruses "out-evolving" vaccines even over much longer time frames than what we're talking about here.
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Old 28th January 2021, 12:41 PM   #588
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
"May" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
Has been since the start, but there's no getting around what's happening in Manaus.

Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
There's not a lot of precedent for viruses "out-evolving" vaccines even over much longer time frames than what we're talking about here.
You may have heard of a disease called influenza - check it out.

Also, other viruses don't have the benefit of tens of millions of concurrent cases to play with.
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Old 28th January 2021, 03:29 PM   #589
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Not necessarily. That could just be due to large numbers of soldiers in barracks together.

There is a view, that the Covid19 virus is now hitting younger age groups now that the older ones are dying out, it is the survival of the fittest mutations that adapt to target ever larger populations.
Covid-19 has been more prevalent in the under 65's than overs since last April. 10 months ago it was hitting adults pretty evenly across age groups. After April there has been a pretty consistent shift away from the elderly by roughly 2x. Likely because they are taking more precautions knowing that they are at far higher risk if they get it. It's easier for them to do since many elderly are no longer in the work force.
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Old 28th January 2021, 03:54 PM   #590
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So the SA variant escapes the vaccine and previous Covid-19 infection/recovery at about the 50% level. Question remaining is does it produce the same level of serious disease? Is IFR still around .6% for those that become infected with the new variant but were previously vaccinated?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/no...ca/ar-BB1dbC1A
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Old 28th January 2021, 04:25 PM   #591
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Has been since the start, but there's no getting around what's happening in Manaus.

You may have heard of a disease called influenza - check it out.

Also, other viruses don't have the benefit of tens of millions of concurrent cases to play with.

I seem to know more than you do about influenza viruses, including why they do this thing that coronavoruses don't. And there have been many occasions when viruses have infected enormous numbers of people and yet little to be antigenic drift has been observed.
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Old 28th January 2021, 05:18 PM   #592
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
So the SA variant escapes the vaccine and previous Covid-19 infection/recovery at about the 50% level.
The numbers are expected to be even worse for the Brazil/Manaus variant.

Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
And there have been many occasions when viruses have infected enormous numbers of people and yet little to be antigenic drift has been observed.
Utterly irrelevant. Have you actually read anything about Covid?

We've observed a number of mutations in the past two months that, as Marting noted, includes at least one variant probably reducing vaccine efficacy by almost 50%. What happened with other viruses doesn't matter when we know for certain this one is mutating quite quickly now it has some numbers to work with.

And we're still due to have ~75 more shifts this year.
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Old 28th January 2021, 10:42 PM   #593
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Long haulers are a big problem that will be with us long after deaths have subsided.

The vast majority of COVID-19 patients who beat the virus aren’t done fighting its symptoms. The illness isn’t gone after those 14 days of battling the active infection. Many survivors will go on to experience COVID-19 symptoms for weeks to months to come.

A summary of some new research.

https://bgr.com/2021/01/28/long-covi...utoantibodies/

And a comment from a glass half full guy:

Separately, a different immunologist commenting on one of the studies identified one silver lining. “We’re going to learn some fundamental principles about acute viral infections in people who haven’t been easy to study in this way before,” Dr. Marion Pepper, from the University of Washington in Seattle, told the paper.
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Last edited by marting; 28th January 2021 at 10:44 PM.
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Old 28th January 2021, 11:50 PM   #594
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Dr. Eric Feigl Ding Twitter thread about the current vaccines and the South African variant.
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Old 29th January 2021, 12:07 AM   #595
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Very early in the original thread, we were wondering what was the risk of death from Covid 19? In Australia, about 3.5% of the people who were diagnosed with Covid 19 died. This does not take into account the latest mutations of the virus. Nor the latest treatments. This is also when hospitals could cope with serious cases.
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Old 29th January 2021, 12:26 AM   #596
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Very early in the original thread, we were wondering what was the risk of death from Covid 19? In Australia, about 3.5% of the people who were diagnosed with Covid 19 died. This does not take into account the latest mutations of the virus. Nor the latest treatments. This is also when hospitals could cope with serious cases.
Australia has absurdly low number of cases. I wouldn't take it too seriously.

Here are some more exposed countries:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...ickerSort=desc

Israel now sits at 0.7%, very low value possibly because good tracking of infections.
But then Germany has 2.5%. Are they really such bud trackers ? So who knows why the difference.
Lot of countries seems to be clustered around 1.7%.

Btw. the graph is highly customizable, one of the best online.
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Old 29th January 2021, 12:39 AM   #597
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Is there yet any insight as to why age is such a big factor in the risk of death from Covid-19?
No.

But you are right, age is the overwhelming risk factor. Mortality in the UK doubles for every eight years from childhood. This is not so strongly seen with other infections. In the end death rates will need to be compared with age standardised populations, you would expect to see lower mortality in e.g. Africa with a much larger proportion of young people.

This is not a simple decline in immune system response, if this was the case pregnancy should be a bigger risk or being immunocompromised. Even immunocompromised children are at low risk.

At a guess it may be related to glycosylation of proteins, this will increase with age and would explain why diabetes is also a significant risk factor.
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Old 29th January 2021, 12:58 AM   #598
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Is there yet any insight as to why age is such a big factor in the risk of death from Covid-19?
Purely hypothetical reasons:

1) Our immune systems weaken with age.

2) if immunity is short lived, younger people may have more recently been infected with similar viruses and still have some crossover immunity.

3) Older people have more comorbidities.

4) Unknown factors.
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Old 29th January 2021, 01:11 AM   #599
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
...

This is not a simple decline in immune system response, if this was the case pregnancy should be a bigger risk or being immunocompromised. Even immunocompromised children are at low risk. ... .
Do you have other sources for this?

Pregnancy does indeed add a greater risk.

Mayo Clinic: pregnancy and COVID
They say the risk is low? but go on to say the opposite:
Quote:
However, pregnancy increases the risk for severe illness with COVID-19. Pregnant women who have COVID-19 appear more likely to develop respiratory complications requiring intensive care than women who aren't pregnant, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Pregnant women are also more likely to be placed on a ventilator. In addition, pregnant women who are Black or Hispanic appear to be disproportionately affected by infection with the COVID-19 virus.

It isn't yet known how frequently COVID-19 causes problems during pregnancy or affects the health of the baby after birth. Some research suggests that pregnant women with COVID-19 are more likely to have a premature birth and their babies are more likely to be admitted to a neonatal unit.
Immunosuppression with medication may not be as great a risk as it seems.

Johns Hopkins: COVID-19 Outcomes for Patients on Immunosuppressive Drugs on Par with Non-Immunosuppressed Patients
Quote:
For their study, the researchers analyzed the anonymized records of 2,121 hospitalized COVID-19 patients seen at the Johns Hopkins Medicine medical system in Baltimore, MD, and Washington, D.C., from March 4 to August 29, 2020. They found that the COVID-19 patients who were immunosuppressed prior to their COVID-19 hospitalization did not, on average, have worse COVID-19 outcomes—such as longer length of stay in the hospital, death in hospital, or use of a ventilator—compared to their counterparts who were not immunosuppressed
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Old 29th January 2021, 09:05 AM   #600
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Is there yet any insight as to why age is such a big factor in the risk of death from Covid-19?

It's quite similar for the yearly flu for age 15 and above - very close to exponential with age.
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