Scottish Independence referendum 2023

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I don't know for sure how it was discovered, I think by an opinion polling company, but I read that native Welsh people did indeed vote against Brexit by a small majority, with the numbers being skewed by English people who had retired to live in Wales.

Of course there was also the issue of the voters in the very poor ex-mining constituencies who actually believed the lies that Westminster would give them more money than the EU did, once it had "taken back control". This was never credible, but people believe what they want to believe.

I think this is what you're referring to. In this case it's not based on polling but on an analysis of the demographics of the areas that voted Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...rexit-research

It's not clear whether the analysis corrected effectively for other factors like age, wealth, political leaning and so forth independently of where people came from. For example it would be easy to blame the Anglos in leafy Monmouthshire for voting Brexit but in my experience it was the Welsh what swung it.

But back to Scotland and Scottish independence and Scotland's (in)ability to develop closer trading relationships with the EU whilst remaining part of the UK.

To do so there would have to be a huge increase in the level of Scottish devolution. If the Scottish then chose to improve ties with the EU this will have a profound (and massively expensive and disruptive) impact on the English/Scottish border. There doesn't appear to be the political will for the required changes in Westminster and why should there when neither party who could conceivably form a government has any significant reliance on Scottish MPs ?

A possible game changer would be if the SNP held the balance of power and could use that to change Westminster's focus. Then again any such government would be weak, not least because the SNP does not currently engage on legislation that does not relate to Scotland.

[Rolfe]

Yeah, it wasn't something I remember as being very firmly evidence-based. The poll that seemed to show that a majority of native-born Scots voted Yes in 2014 was rather better in that it was an actual opinion poll conducted shortly after the vote, but these things are fraught with error.

The SNP did hold sufficient power in Westminster to have done something meaningful for a short time, but they blew it. In any case, as you say, nothing short of independence would make any permanent difference because the arithmetic dictates that Scottish MPs could only hold that sort of power rarely and for short periods. Anything the WM establishment didn't like could just be repealed.

By the way, "Scottish" is an adjective. The noun is "Scots".

[Rolfe]

Although it pains me to say it, this is deadly accurate.

https://twitter.com/shiny02/status/1597885649633386497

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

By the way, "Scottish" is an adjective. The noun is "Scots".

Actually I missed out the noun. I spent so long trying to decide between people, electorate or some better term that didn't come to mind that I ended up with an orphan adjective

[Rolfe]

Ah.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

From Norman's link.

I suppose it's not fair to expect people posting on this forum to be up to speed with every twist and turn of the Scottish independence campaign over the past 50 years, though I don't think it's too much to expect paid newspaper columnists to have done some homework.

Every time this gets trotted out I post this image.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...615556437f.jpg

It's so much of a standard ploy it's a running joke. Scots in general want more devolution, as much as they can get. Much of the push for independence has been fuelled by frustration among devolutionists that the devolution they want is never delivered.

The regular strategy is to offer loads and loads of lovely devolution if only you'll just back away from that scary independence option, won't that be absolutely grand. Then the No vote appears, and the promise of additional devolution blows away like chaff in the wind.

In 2014, only a couple of weeks before the vote, when it looked as if Yes might win despite the torrent of threats of penury and ostracism emanating from Westminster, Gordon Brown gave a speech promising virtual federalism within months if we voted No. "The most powerful devolved parliament in the world!" There was a fancy "Vow" with facsimile signatures printed on the front page of the Daily Record promising (apparently, if you didn't parse it carefully) the moon on a stick. In my opinion this swayed the vote. A lot of people who were intending to vote Yes because they were dissatisfied with the powers Holyrood had been granted (which were specifically designed by Donald Dewar to be self-strangling) changed to No.

What happened next is well documented. The Smith Commission, and Labour opposing all suggested additional powers tooth and nail, and in the end we got devolved powers over road signs. Devolution, in Westminster's eyes, is a way to stop independence. Much may be promised but they will deliver as little as possible and what they deliver will have hidden strings attached and a sting in the tail. Scotland settling into a comfortable position inside the UK but with meaningful powers that satisfy the devolotionist demographic is a nice idea but it will never happen. It will never be allowed to happen, because the mindset at Westminster is all about keeping these pesky natives in their place and not allowing them to thing they amount to anything.

Exaggeration does your case no good, it just makes it look like you do not know what you are talking about. The Scottish government has control of health, education, social services, law enforcement, much of environment. It has a differing legal system from elsewhere in the UK and can legislate as it wants over criminal law. It has limited tax raising powers. It has the power to nationalise businesses and has taken the rail system back into national ownership, and nationalised a ship builder. The Western Isles ferry services are government owned, as is now the ship yard that is failing to build new ferries. (In contrast the strongly unionist Northern Isles are dependant on private ferry services.) It is strongly centralising with a single Scottish police service, fire and rescue and ambulance service, with plans for a national social care service, and I suspect a national education service. It is pretty clear one thing that the SNP do not believe in is devolution. If the SNP wanted to it could be radical, it could abolish private education, it could introduce universal free school meals beyond primary, it could legislate that one could self declare one's gender.

[Rolfe]

It had all that to start with. Subject to all the sting-in-the-tail hobbling provisions of course.

The outcome of the Smith Commission, which was supposed to deliver "super-devo-max" was that, by the time Labour had finished voting down all the suggestions that made it to the table, control of road signs was added to the list.

[steenkh]

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer

You're missing out the rather significant fact that compromises were agreed to Denmark (in Edinburgh coincidentally) so the second Maastricht referendum was held on a version of the agreement that addressed the reasons that the original vote was "No". That seems pretty democratic to me.

I didn’t say it wasn’t democratic. I just noted that after a “no” result, there would be more referendums, but after a “yes” result, there would be no more.

And, by the way, I voted “yes” to both, so I was pleased with the result.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by steenkh

I didn’t say it wasn’t democratic. I just noted that after a “no” result, there would be more referendums, but after a “yes” result, there would be no more.

And, by the way, I voted “yes” to both, so I was pleased with the result.

Fair enough, it seemed more loaded the way you put it, but that maybe in part because Brexit supporters have liked to characterise it as being forced to keep voting until attrition got them the "Yes" result rather than putting it to the people, then negotiating compromises, then putting it to the people again.

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by Darat

UK government.

Based on who they're ruling for English is more accurate.

[SteveAitch]

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

Based on who they're ruling for, Eton is more accurate.

FTFY

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by SteveAitch

FTFY

Eton is England.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

Based on who they're ruling for English is more accurate.

The rich and influential aren't limited to England.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by Darat

The rich and influential aren't limited to England.

Indeed, has Putin ever even been here?

[Carrot Flower King]

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

Eton is England.

Oh please, it really isn't.

It has nothing to do with pretty much everyone I've ever met and yet we have to live with the consequences of its pupils in our aristocratic in everything but name society.

[FatherLukeduke]

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

Eton is England.

And good old socialist Scotland doesn't have any elite fee paying schools....oh...wait....

There is this:

Quote:

Scottish students from independent schools are over-represented at the four ancient universities of Scotland. They represented 26% of the student body at the four institutions in 2014/15 with 71% in total receiving an offer of admission at one of the four ancient universities compared to only 29% of state-school entrants

Hmm....

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King

Oh please, it really isn't.

It has nothing to do with pretty much everyone I've ever met and yet we have to live with the consequences of its pupils in our aristocratic in everything but name society.

From an electoral point of view alienating Scotland from the UK to the point it splits benefits the (disproportionately Etonian) Tories to the detriment of the non-Tory English, Welsh & Northern Irish. It's entirely to their benefit to stoke such divisions.