[Merged] Bitcoin - Part 3 - Page 72

psionl0 · 17th November 2022, 06:35 AM

Originally Posted by catsmate

Or 20k. In fact if you bought in roughly the last two years and have held on to your Dunning-Krugerands you have lost.

Only the umpteen millionth time this prediction has been made. Go on, short them.

FatherLukeduke · 17th November 2022, 08:44 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Sure lots of people have lost on bitcoin because they bought high then panicked when the price started falling. This is a common strategy for lots of amateur investors.

If you don't think the price will ever go up past the point that you are selling at, or you need the money for something useful, then it is the perfectly rational thing to do. They gambled, lost and took the loss. Nothing to do with amateurism - loads of institutional investors have lost plenty.

Yeah, you might think the price might go up at some point and hold. It's just speculation however, not some kind of wise investment strategy.

FatherLukeduke · 17th November 2022, 08:47 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Go on, short them.

Not everyone is a degenerate gambler. And even if they were, shorting takes deep pockets and isn't exactly easy to do with bitcoin.

dudalb · 17th November 2022, 03:29 PM

Originally Posted by catsmate

I suspect the lawyers will play to the jury.

Now talk that Freid will face bribery charges for some of the "donations" he made to people in congress (of both parties, be it noted).

dudalb · 17th November 2022, 03:34 PM

Someone just defined Crypto as Libertarians defrauding other Libertarians. Sounds pretty close to the truth for me.
Not that rhis will change the minds of members of the Crypto cult.It has become a matter of pure faith to beleive in Crypto.

marting · 17th November 2022, 03:59 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

Someone just defined Crypto as Libertarians defrauding other Libertarians. Sounds pretty close to the truth for me. Not that this will change the minds of members of the Crypto cult. It has become a matter of pure faith to believe in Crypto.

I'm not sure that's the case currently. Perhaps in the past. See this post I made where I was surprised that in the USA, minorities were more likely to have crypto than whites. This is fairly characteristic of too many end stage bubbles. Like the 2008 home mortgage where one needed almost no credit or income docs to get a variable rate mortgage or re-fi. Because, hey, house prices always went up! Right!!

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...postcount=2778

Here's a running list of all (questionable) things crypto and web3. Damn it sure is long. Really long.

https://web3isgoinggreat.com/

It really is the Wild, Wild, Wild West. Like no one's ever seen before. (to steal a phrase from DJT)

psionl0 · 17th November 2022, 05:13 PM

Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke

Yeah, you might think the price might go up at some point and hold. It's just speculation however, not some kind of wise investment strategy.

It is a strategy that has worked every single time somebody has employed it in the past.

FatherLukeduke · 18th November 2022, 03:10 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

It is a strategy that has worked every single time somebody has employed it in the past.

I don't really understand what you are saying? Is is it that whatever the asset and whatever price you bought it at, if you hold it long enough you will make a profit?

That is evidently not true.

Dr.Sid · 18th November 2022, 04:57 AM

Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke

I don't really understand what you are saying? Is is it that whatever the asset and whatever price you bought it at, if you hold it long enough you will make a profit?

That is evidently not true.

What do you mean, evidently ? Do you know somebody who tried to hold till the end of the universe ? I doubt it !

psionl0 · 18th November 2022, 07:26 AM

Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke

I don't really understand what you are saying? Is is it that whatever the asset and whatever price you bought it at, if you hold it long enough you will make a profit?

Er . . this is bitcoin we are discussing.

The price chart clearly shows that up until the beginning of this year, everybody who bought bitcoin could have sold it at a profit some time later. I'm not saying that this proves that the price will exceed $60K at some point but the odds seem good.

It wasn't so long ago that a poster wanted me to be hung, drawn and quartered because I refused to rule out the possibility that the price of bitcoin could reach $20K (it came just short in December 2017). Needless to say, this person is not posting on this thread any more.

Solitaire · 18th November 2022, 03:42 PM

I my case I'll stay with stocks until interest rates rise above five percent
and then as they rise to ten percent I will get out of stocks entirely. When
interest rates fall bellow five percent I will sell my bonds and begin buying
stocks again. It's not a good strategy as it doesn't consider things like
commodities, but based upon past history I think I will do fine.

Quote:

What To Consider When Investing In Crypto by Fidelity Viewpoints

Before you invest, get educated on the ins and outs of this fast-growing
industry. For example, you should be able to explain the value of blockchain
technology and decentralization to friends and family.

marting · 18th November 2022, 04:58 PM

For those tech savvy peeps interested in protecting their bitcoin from third party exchange risk:

Here's a reference to open source cold wallets.

https://opensource.com/article/18/7/crypto-wallets

Samson · 19th November 2022, 02:06 AM

Originally Posted by marting

For those tech savvy peeps interested in protecting their bitcoin from third party exchange risk:

Here's a reference to open source cold wallets.

https://opensource.com/article/18/7/crypto-wallets

Fiat currency seems to work ok too.

FatherLukeduke · 19th November 2022, 06:04 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Er . . this is bitcoin we are discussing.

The price chart clearly shows that up until the beginning of this year, everybody who bought bitcoin could have sold it at a profit some time later.

"Up to the beginning of the year" is not the same as "Every single time", as you stated. But anyway, yes, the market was rising, then it fell.

Quote:

I'm not saying that this proves that the price will exceed $60K at some point but the odds seem good.

Financial products in the UK come with the warning "Past performance is not indicative of future results", or something on those lines.

Bitcoin's peak came during a period of almost unprecedented asset inflation. Years of central banks printing money like it was going out of fashion, historically low interest rates, federal handouts, a global properly bubble, a tech bubble and US stock market bubble. All this is unwinding now, and it's very difficult to see speculative assets like bitcoin getting pumped again any time soon.

Not to mention what a toxic image crypto has now developed.

jeremyp · 19th November 2022, 09:38 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

This "bigger fool theory" is just crap.

There's no point in making that assertion because the bigger fool "theory" is factually true: the only way to make money on Bitcoin (unless you are a miner) is to get somebody else to give you more money for your Bitcoin holdings than you paid for it. That is all there is to it.

Quote:

Bitcoin is traded on the open market just like any other commodity or collectable. Further more, unlike collectables (like used stamps), bitcoin has utility.

As I understand it, stamp collectors prefer unused or "mint condition" stamps.

Some people get aesthetic pleasure out of collecting things. Not all stamp collectors - in fact, perhaps not even a majority - collect stamps as an investment vehicle. So yes, stamps have utility - not just for paying postage.

Quote:

Sure lots of people have lost on bitcoin because they bought high then panicked when the price started falling. This is a common strategy for lots of amateur investors.

Ultimately, for anybody to make money on Bitcoin, somebody else has to lose money because all the money you get from selling it has to come from other people buying it. If you want it to be the case that theoretically everybody can make money, there has to be an infinite chain of people prepared to pay more than what the last person paid for Bitcoin.

jeremyp · 19th November 2022, 09:50 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Er . . this is bitcoin we are discussing.

The price chart clearly shows that up until the beginning of this year, everybody who bought bitcoin could have sold it at a profit some time later.

No this is false. The price chart only shows what the next Bitcoin sold will get. It does not mean that, when the price was $60k everybody could sell and get $60k per Bitcoin.

Dr.Sid · 19th November 2022, 10:33 AM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

Ultimately, for anybody to make money on Bitcoin, somebody else has to lose money because all the money you get from selling it has to come from other people buying it. If you want it to be the case that theoretically everybody can make money, there has to be an infinite chain of people prepared to pay more than what the last person paid for Bitcoin.

Exactly the same as with gold or stock market. Ok, gold also has pure consumers, but it can be recycled after use and very small amount is actually removed from the system. Probably less than in case of crypto, where wallets are lost on daily basis.

novaphile · 19th November 2022, 03:16 PM

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Exactly the same as with gold or stock market. Ok, gold also has pure consumers, but it can be recycled after use and very small amount is actually removed from the system. Probably less than in case of crypto, where wallets are lost on daily basis.

I keep seeing estimates of leakage, where bitcoin wallets have been lost, of between 10 and 20 percent of bitcoin.

Following up on that, just noticed an article about a company that performs brute force attacks on wallets for people who have lost/forgotten their passwords.

That company says: "...approximately half the wallets we open are empty."

I'm now wondering how the user could tell the difference?
(i.e. How do they know that the company hasn't cracked their wallet and stolen the loot?)

Perhaps the user receives the recovered keys and wallet ID/address, and there is a method to demonstrate that the wallet has been emptied over time via normal usage by running those keys against the blockchain.

Edited to add:

Aha! If you do get your wallet address back, you can track all transactions from that wallet:

https://gocardless.com/en-us/guides/...-verification/

Dr.Sid · 19th November 2022, 03:26 PM

Hm .. shouldn't the amount of money on any wallet be visible to anyone ?

angrysoba · 19th November 2022, 04:02 PM

Word is that Grayscale is next.

Samson · 19th November 2022, 04:37 PM

I read you buy bitcoin for 57 cents in the dollar on Grayscale, but Grayscale assures everyone things are 1 for 1.

psionl0 · 19th November 2022, 06:44 PM

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Exactly the same as with gold or stock market. Ok, gold also has pure consumers, but it can be recycled after use and very small amount is actually removed from the system. Probably less than in case of crypto, where wallets are lost on daily basis.

Ah but bitcoin is different. It is unique. It is an island unto itself. It doesn't follow the usual rules of supply and demand like everything else. It is magical.

When people choose to buy item A instead of item B the usual rules of supply and demand suggest that we would expect the price of item A to increase and the price of item B to decrease.

This doesn't happen when bitcoin is one of the items. When people buy bitcoin instead of some other item, it has no effect whatsoever on the demand or price of the other item. Similarly, if people sell their bitcoins to buy the other item then again, it has no effect on the price or demand for the other item.

psionl0 · 19th November 2022, 10:05 PM

Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke

Bitcoin's peak came during a period of almost unprecedented asset inflation. Years of central banks printing money like it was going out of fashion, historically low interest rates, federal handouts, a global properly bubble, a tech bubble and US stock market bubble. All this is unwinding now, and it's very difficult to see speculative assets like bitcoin getting pumped again any time soon.

Bitcoin has had many peaks in its 13 year history (the earliest being in 2011 when it peaked at $30).

Each time the price fell (dramatically) from its peak, there would be a raft of posters "explaining" why it will never reach that price again. You are just the latest in a long line such prophets. I dare say we won't see you in this thread again when the $60K barrier is crushed.

Gord_in_Toronto · 20th November 2022, 09:49 AM

I'm not "a self-proclaimed personal money management expert" but this reflects my assessment quite well:
Financial Guru Dave Ramsey Weighs in on FTX Collapse — Reiterates His Crypto Warning

Quote:

A longtime bitcoin and crypto skeptic, Ramsey called BTC “funny money” in December 2020. He also expressed his doubt that bitcoin could be cashed out, advising investors to sell their coins now. In January, he said crypto is fun and here to say but should only be a small part of a portfolio “for entertainment.”

Referencing his warning about crypto, the self-proclaimed personal finance expert said “I told you so” several times during his show that was published Friday.

psionl0 · 20th November 2022, 07:41 PM

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

I'm not "a self-proclaimed personal money management expert" but this reflects my assessment quite well:
Financial Guru Dave Ramsey Weighs in on FTX Collapse — Reiterates His Crypto Warning

Quote:

Referencing his warning about crypto, the self-proclaimed personal finance expert said “I told you so” several times during his show that was published Friday.

Everybody says "I told you so" when a bitcoin bubble ends even though this is as surprising as finding out that water is wet.

Unsurprisingly enough, nobody says "I told you so" when the price of bitcoin eclipses its previous peak.

FatherLukeduke · 21st November 2022, 04:38 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Each time the price fell (dramatically) from its peak, there would be a raft of posters "explaining" why it will never reach that price again. You are just the latest in a long line such prophets. I dare say we won't see you in this thread again when the $60K barrier is crushed.

I've don't know for sure what the speculators\gamblers might do with the bitcoin price. I'm just explaining why you are wrong to say "holding works every single time" where it clearly doesn't for anyone who bought at anything above the current price. Yeah, maybe one day it will "crush" (cringe) the magic number of $60K, or maybe it won't. You seem to be implying that it is guaranteed, which is obviously silly.

I'm making an educated guess that as all the other bubbles in the US and global economy are unwinding (and still have a long way to go) then speculative assets will do particularly badly. There seems to be all downsides and no upsides right now. No more money printers going brrr. On top of that there appears to be hardly any liquidity left in the crypto markets and that it's pretty clear the whole ecosystem is build on a house of BS.

lomiller · 21st November 2022, 12:41 PM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Ultimately, for anybody to make money on Bitcoin, somebody else has to lose money because all the money you get from selling it has to come from other people buying it. If you want it to be the case that theoretically everybody can make money, there has to be an infinite chain of people prepared to pay more than what the last person paid for Bitcoin.

Exactly the same as with gold or stock market.

Nope. Business have earnings and earnings have real value to shareholders. 90% of gold mined each year is used in the jewelry market so it's used to manufacture consumer products in a way that bitcoin just isn't.

Gord_in_Toronto · 21st November 2022, 03:39 PM

The Cautionary Tale:

Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble

Quote:

Tulipmania is a model for the general cycle of a financial bubble:

Investors lose track of rational expectations.
Psychological biases lead to a massive upswing in the price of an asset or sector.
A positive-feedback cycle continues to inflate prices.
Investors realize that they are holding an irrationally priced asset.
Prices collapse due to a massive sell-off, and an overwhelming majority go bankrupt.

But you could always plant your bulb with the expectation of a pretty flower in the Spring.

psionl0 · 21st November 2022, 03:51 PM

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

The Cautionary Tale:

Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble

But you could always plant your bulb with the expectation of a pretty flower in the Spring.

What does this irrelevant story have to do with bitcoin?

psionl0 · 21st November 2022, 03:55 PM

Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke

I've don't know for sure what the speculators\gamblers might do with the bitcoin price. I'm just explaining why you are wrong to say "holding works every single time" where it clearly doesn't for anyone who bought at anything above the current price. Yeah, maybe one day it will "crush" (cringe) the magic number of $60K, or maybe it won't. You seem to be implying that it is guaranteed, which is obviously silly.

You know very well that I specifically denied that it was guaranteed because you responded to that post. I merely pointed out that the odds were good.

OTOH you are arguing that bitcoin will never reach its peak price again - just like everybody else before you who no longer posts on this thread.

Samson · 21st November 2022, 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by psionl0

What does this irrelevant story have to do with bitcoin?

That you can't plant your bitcoin and have a pretty flower in spring?

Stankeye · 21st November 2022, 05:29 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

Now talk that Freid will face bribery charges for some of the "donations" he made to people in congress (of both parties, be it noted).

Where did you get that info about both parties?

Not even the WaPo has mentioned any donations FTX made to republicans.

Stankeye · 21st November 2022, 05:31 PM

Oh I see.

He gave a pittence to conservatives..so he donted to "both parties")

https://www.opensecrets.org/outside-...=V&superonly=N

a_unique_person · 21st November 2022, 07:05 PM

So SBF and his girlfriend took most of the real cash, speculated with it and lost it all. Not exactly financial geniuses. Some people must have been making their fortunes out of FTX.

Also, apparently, when people thought their money was going to FTX it was going direct to Alameda.

psionl0 · 21st November 2022, 07:28 PM

Originally Posted by Samson

That you can't plant your bitcoin and have a pretty flower in spring?

So, no relevance investment wise.

marting · 21st November 2022, 07:49 PM

Gotta love this piece:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...sh/ar-AA14o3bf

Quote:

But at the very worst – if cryptos ARE a complete scam – cryptocurrencies will still boom. Why? Because they’re a better version of online gambling! If people have an opportunity to turn $1 into $10, they will take it.

IE, in the worst case it's bound to go up because people like to gamble. Well alrightly.

There's something to that. People like to gamble. Not sure how that means it is guaranteed to go up but what do I know. Just be careful of counterparty risk. Pretty difficult approaching impossible to trade w/o an exchange but as long as you keep most of your digital assets not actively trading in cold wallets, your exposure to that is limited to the stuff you put on the exchanges like FTX.

Chanakya · 21st November 2022, 10:47 PM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

So SBF and his girlfriend took most of the real cash, speculated with it and lost it all. Not exactly financial geniuses. Some people must have been making their fortunes out of FTX.

Also, apparently, when people thought their money was going to FTX it was going direct to Alameda.

Not just "not genius", but actual raving madmen, unless we're missing something.

Something about this doesn't read right. Like I said, we're probably missing something here. Sure, this guy's dishonest, sure he's a crook; but he'd need to be raving lunatic in order to go speculate with other people's super-volatile crypto! I mean, where would he invest? What I'm saying is, even if his crooked investments pay off, best case, even then, who's to say the underlying asset won't deprecate by some whopping amount in the meantime, rendering him in the red? Crooks do try to make money off of money that doesn't belong to them, but this is ...insane.

Not suggesting Bank-whatsisname isn't a crook, I'm sure he is. Not suggesting crypto's not a dicey asset, everything considered I'd say it is likely it is. It's just that we probably don't have the full story on this Bank-whatsisname guy, this FTX founder/crook. (Or at least, that I don't.) Doesn't quite add up, this craziness.

Roger Ramjets · 22nd November 2022, 12:50 AM

Originally Posted by Chanakya

Doesn't quite add up, this craziness.

Sure it does. Crypto brings out the crazy. You know it doesn't make sense, but the thought of all that money you could be making overrides common sense.

Some people say Crypto is just gambling. They are wrong - it's much worse. Crypto promises that everyone will be a winner, which other forms of gambling don't. And crypto pretends to be a better alternative to fiat currency - as if it has a firm financial basis and is morally superior - when it is neither. Bitcoin is fatally flawed and very immoral, but the thought of all that 'free' money stops people from looking too closely at it.

I feel sorry for Sam Bankman-Fried and his friends. I think they bought into the hype and thought that if they were smart enough then everyone could be winner. The FTX crash is proof that everyone isn't (even those who 'hold' forever). It won't be the last. Most have convinced themselves that FTX was a one-off anomaly, when in fact such events are an inherent part of the system. One day it may get to the point where (almost) everyone is loser and it collapses completely - while a few sad hodlers still insist that so long as crypto exists they will eventually win.

psionl0 · 22nd November 2022, 01:50 AM

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Sure it does. Crypto brings out the crazy. < rest of OT post snipped >

This article was about a crypto exchange and not about cryptos themselves. Your entire narrative is based on a lie.

jeremyp · 22nd November 2022, 05:39 AM

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Exactly the same as with gold or stock market. Ok, gold also has pure consumers, but it can be recycled after use and very small amount is actually removed from the system. Probably less than in case of crypto, where wallets are lost on daily basis.

You can make money on the stock market without having to sell shares provided the companies whose stock you buy issue dividends.

There are a number of ways of making money on gold without selling it to just another commodities speculator.

17th November 2022, 06:35 AM	#2841
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,869	Originally Posted by catsmate Or 20k. In fact if you bought in roughly the last two years and have held on to your Dunning-Krugerands you have lost. Only the umpteen millionth time this prediction has been made. Go on, short them.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

17th November 2022, 08:44 AM	#2842
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 130	Originally Posted by psionl0 Sure lots of people have lost on bitcoin because they bought high then panicked when the price started falling. This is a common strategy for lots of amateur investors. If you don't think the price will ever go up past the point that you are selling at, or you need the money for something useful, then it is the perfectly rational thing to do. They gambled, lost and took the loss. Nothing to do with amateurism - loads of institutional investors have lost plenty. Yeah, you might think the price might go up at some point and hold. It's just speculation however, not some kind of wise investment strategy.
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 130

17th November 2022, 08:47 AM	#2843
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 130	Originally Posted by psionl0 Go on, short them. Not everyone is a degenerate gambler. And even if they were, shorting takes deep pockets and isn't exactly easy to do with bitcoin.
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 130

17th November 2022, 03:29 PM	#2844
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 57,211	Originally Posted by catsmate I suspect the lawyers will play to the jury. Now talk that Freid will face bribery charges for some of the "donations" he made to people in congress (of both parties, be it noted).
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

17th November 2022, 03:34 PM	#2845
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 57,211	Someone just defined Crypto as Libertarians defrauding other Libertarians. Sounds pretty close to the truth for me. Not that rhis will change the minds of members of the Crypto cult.It has become a matter of pure faith to beleive in Crypto.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

17th November 2022, 03:59 PM	#2846
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,621	Originally Posted by dudalb Someone just defined Crypto as Libertarians defrauding other Libertarians. Sounds pretty close to the truth for me. Not that this will change the minds of members of the Crypto cult. It has become a matter of pure faith to believe in Crypto. I'm not sure that's the case currently. Perhaps in the past. See this post I made where I was surprised that in the USA, minorities were more likely to have crypto than whites. This is fairly characteristic of too many end stage bubbles. Like the 2008 home mortgage where one needed almost no credit or income docs to get a variable rate mortgage or re-fi. Because, hey, house prices always went up! Right!! http://www.internationalskeptics.com...postcount=2778 Here's a running list of all (questionable) things crypto and web3. Damn it sure is long. Really long. https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ It really is the Wild, Wild, Wild West. Like no one's ever seen before. (to steal a phrase from DJT)
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,621	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

17th November 2022, 05:13 PM	#2847
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,869	Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke Yeah, you might think the price might go up at some point and hold. It's just speculation however, not some kind of wise investment strategy. It is a strategy that has worked every single time somebody has employed it in the past.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

18th November 2022, 03:10 AM	#2848
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 130	Originally Posted by psionl0 It is a strategy that has worked every single time somebody has employed it in the past. I don't really understand what you are saying? Is is it that whatever the asset and whatever price you bought it at, if you hold it long enough you will make a profit? That is evidently not true.
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 130

18th November 2022, 04:57 AM	#2849
Dr.Sid Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic Posts: 3,993	Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke I don't really understand what you are saying? Is is it that whatever the asset and whatever price you bought it at, if you hold it long enough you will make a profit? That is evidently not true. What do you mean, evidently ? Do you know somebody who tried to hold till the end of the universe ? I doubt it !

18th November 2022, 07:26 AM	#2850
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,869	Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke I don't really understand what you are saying? Is is it that whatever the asset and whatever price you bought it at, if you hold it long enough you will make a profit? Er . . this is bitcoin we are discussing. The price chart clearly shows that up until the beginning of this year, everybody who bought bitcoin could have sold it at a profit some time later. I'm not saying that this proves that the price will exceed $60K at some point but the odds seem good. It wasn't so long ago that a poster wanted me to be hung, drawn and quartered because I refused to rule out the possibility that the price of bitcoin could reach $20K (it came just short in December 2017). Needless to say, this person is not posting on this thread any more.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

18th November 2022, 04:58 PM	#2852
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,621	For those tech savvy peeps interested in protecting their bitcoin from third party exchange risk: Here's a reference to open source cold wallets. https://opensource.com/article/18/7/crypto-wallets
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,621	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

19th November 2022, 02:06 AM	#2853
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,270	Originally Posted by marting For those tech savvy peeps interested in protecting their bitcoin from third party exchange risk: Here's a reference to open source cold wallets. https://opensource.com/article/18/7/crypto-wallets Fiat currency seems to work ok too.

19th November 2022, 06:04 AM	#2854
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 130	Originally Posted by psionl0 Er . . this is bitcoin we are discussing. The price chart clearly shows that up until the beginning of this year, everybody who bought bitcoin could have sold it at a profit some time later. "Up to the beginning of the year" is not the same as "Every single time", as you stated. But anyway, yes, the market was rising, then it fell. Quote: I'm not saying that this proves that the price will exceed $60K at some point but the odds seem good. Financial products in the UK come with the warning "Past performance is not indicative of future results", or something on those lines. Bitcoin's peak came during a period of almost unprecedented asset inflation. Years of central banks printing money like it was going out of fashion, historically low interest rates, federal handouts, a global properly bubble, a tech bubble and US stock market bubble. All this is unwinding now, and it's very difficult to see speculative assets like bitcoin getting pumped again any time soon. Not to mention what a toxic image crypto has now developed.
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 130

19th November 2022, 09:38 AM	#2855
jeremyp Master Poster Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 2,278	Originally Posted by psionl0 This "bigger fool theory" is just crap. There's no point in making that assertion because the bigger fool "theory" is factually true: the only way to make money on Bitcoin (unless you are a miner) is to get somebody else to give you more money for your Bitcoin holdings than you paid for it. That is all there is to it. Quote: Bitcoin is traded on the open market just like any other commodity or collectable. Further more, unlike collectables (like used stamps), bitcoin has utility. As I understand it, stamp collectors prefer unused or "mint condition" stamps. Some people get aesthetic pleasure out of collecting things. Not all stamp collectors - in fact, perhaps not even a majority - collect stamps as an investment vehicle. So yes, stamps have utility - not just for paying postage. Quote: Sure lots of people have lost on bitcoin because they bought high then panicked when the price started falling. This is a common strategy for lots of amateur investors. Ultimately, for anybody to make money on Bitcoin, somebody else has to lose money because all the money you get from selling it has to come from other people buying it. If you want it to be the case that theoretically everybody can make money, there has to be an infinite chain of people prepared to pay more than what the last person paid for Bitcoin.

19th November 2022, 09:50 AM	#2856
jeremyp Master Poster Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 2,278	Originally Posted by psionl0 Er . . this is bitcoin we are discussing. The price chart clearly shows that up until the beginning of this year, everybody who bought bitcoin could have sold it at a profit some time later. No this is false. The price chart only shows what the next Bitcoin sold will get. It does not mean that, when the price was $60k everybody could sell and get $60k per Bitcoin.

19th November 2022, 10:33 AM	#2857
Dr.Sid Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic Posts: 3,993	Originally Posted by jeremyp Ultimately, for anybody to make money on Bitcoin, somebody else has to lose money because all the money you get from selling it has to come from other people buying it. If you want it to be the case that theoretically everybody can make money, there has to be an infinite chain of people prepared to pay more than what the last person paid for Bitcoin. Exactly the same as with gold or stock market. Ok, gold also has pure consumers, but it can be recycled after use and very small amount is actually removed from the system. Probably less than in case of crypto, where wallets are lost on daily basis.

19th November 2022, 03:16 PM	#2858
novaphile Quester of Doglets Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Sunny South Australia Posts: 3,991	Originally Posted by Dr.Sid Exactly the same as with gold or stock market. Ok, gold also has pure consumers, but it can be recycled after use and very small amount is actually removed from the system. Probably less than in case of crypto, where wallets are lost on daily basis. I keep seeing estimates of leakage, where bitcoin wallets have been lost, of between 10 and 20 percent of bitcoin. Following up on that, just noticed an article about a company that performs brute force attacks on wallets for people who have lost/forgotten their passwords. That company says: "...approximately half the wallets we open are empty." I'm now wondering how the user could tell the difference? (i.e. How do they know that the company hasn't cracked their wallet and stolen the loot?) Perhaps the user receives the recovered keys and wallet ID/address, and there is a method to demonstrate that the wallet has been emptied over time via normal usage by running those keys against the blockchain. Edited to add: Aha! If you do get your wallet address back, you can track all transactions from that wallet: https://gocardless.com/en-us/guides/...-verification/
	__________________ We would be better, and braver, to engage in enquiry, rather than indulge in the idle fancy, that we already know -- Plato. Last edited by novaphile; 19th November 2022 at 03:18 PM. Reason: Update

19th November 2022, 03:26 PM	#2859
Dr.Sid Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic Posts: 3,993	Hm .. shouldn't the amount of money on any wallet be visible to anyone ?

19th November 2022, 04:02 PM	#2860
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 33,729	Word is that Grayscale is next.
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

19th November 2022, 04:37 PM	#2861
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,270	I read you buy bitcoin for 57 cents in the dollar on Grayscale, but Grayscale assures everyone things are 1 for 1.

19th November 2022, 06:44 PM	#2862
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,869	Originally Posted by Dr.Sid Exactly the same as with gold or stock market. Ok, gold also has pure consumers, but it can be recycled after use and very small amount is actually removed from the system. Probably less than in case of crypto, where wallets are lost on daily basis. Ah but bitcoin is different. It is unique. It is an island unto itself. It doesn't follow the usual rules of supply and demand like everything else. It is magical. When people choose to buy item A instead of item B the usual rules of supply and demand suggest that we would expect the price of item A to increase and the price of item B to decrease. This doesn't happen when bitcoin is one of the items. When people buy bitcoin instead of some other item, it has no effect whatsoever on the demand or price of the other item. Similarly, if people sell their bitcoins to buy the other item then again, it has no effect on the price or demand for the other item.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

19th November 2022, 10:05 PM	#2863
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,869	Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke Bitcoin's peak came during a period of almost unprecedented asset inflation. Years of central banks printing money like it was going out of fashion, historically low interest rates, federal handouts, a global properly bubble, a tech bubble and US stock market bubble. All this is unwinding now, and it's very difficult to see speculative assets like bitcoin getting pumped again any time soon. Bitcoin has had many peaks in its 13 year history (the earliest being in 2011 when it peaked at $30). Each time the price fell (dramatically) from its peak, there would be a raft of posters "explaining" why it will never reach that price again. You are just the latest in a long line such prophets. I dare say we won't see you in this thread again when the $60K barrier is crushed.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

20th November 2022, 09:49 AM	#2864
Gord_in_Toronto Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 23,345	I'm not "a self-proclaimed personal money management expert" but this reflects my assessment quite well: Financial Guru Dave Ramsey Weighs in on FTX Collapse — Reiterates His Crypto Warning Quote: A longtime bitcoin and crypto skeptic, Ramsey called BTC “funny money” in December 2020. He also expressed his doubt that bitcoin could be cashed out, advising investors to sell their coins now. In January, he said crypto is fun and here to say but should only be a small part of a portfolio “for entertainment.” Referencing his warning about crypto, the self-proclaimed personal finance expert said “I told you so” several times during his show that was published Friday.
	__________________ "Reality is what's left when you cease to believe." Philip K. Dick

20th November 2022, 07:41 PM	#2865
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,869	Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto I'm not "a self-proclaimed personal money management expert" but this reflects my assessment quite well: Financial Guru Dave Ramsey Weighs in on FTX Collapse — Reiterates His Crypto Warning Quote: Referencing his warning about crypto, the self-proclaimed personal finance expert said “I told you so” several times during his show that was published Friday. Everybody says "I told you so" when a bitcoin bubble ends even though this is as surprising as finding out that water is wet. Unsurprisingly enough, nobody says "I told you so" when the price of bitcoin eclipses its previous peak.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

21st November 2022, 04:38 AM	#2866
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 130	Originally Posted by psionl0 Each time the price fell (dramatically) from its peak, there would be a raft of posters "explaining" why it will never reach that price again. You are just the latest in a long line such prophets. I dare say we won't see you in this thread again when the $60K barrier is crushed. I've don't know for sure what the speculators\gamblers might do with the bitcoin price. I'm just explaining why you are wrong to say "holding works every single time" where it clearly doesn't for anyone who bought at anything above the current price. Yeah, maybe one day it will "crush" (cringe) the magic number of $60K, or maybe it won't. You seem to be implying that it is guaranteed, which is obviously silly. I'm making an educated guess that as all the other bubbles in the US and global economy are unwinding (and still have a long way to go) then speculative assets will do particularly badly. There seems to be all downsides and no upsides right now. No more money printers going brrr. On top of that there appears to be hardly any liquidity left in the crypto markets and that it's pretty clear the whole ecosystem is build on a house of BS.
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 130

21st November 2022, 12:41 PM	#2867
lomiller Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 12,671	Originally Posted by jeremyp Originally Posted by Dr.Sid Ultimately, for anybody to make money on Bitcoin, somebody else has to lose money because all the money you get from selling it has to come from other people buying it. If you want it to be the case that theoretically everybody can make money, there has to be an infinite chain of people prepared to pay more than what the last person paid for Bitcoin. Exactly the same as with gold or stock market. Nope. Business have earnings and earnings have real value to shareholders. 90% of gold mined each year is used in the jewelry market so it's used to manufacture consumer products in a way that bitcoin just isn't.
	__________________ "Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen"

21st November 2022, 03:39 PM	#2868
Gord_in_Toronto Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 23,345	The Cautionary Tale: Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble Quote: Tulipmania is a model for the general cycle of a financial bubble: Investors lose track of rational expectations. Psychological biases lead to a massive upswing in the price of an asset or sector. A positive-feedback cycle continues to inflate prices. Investors realize that they are holding an irrationally priced asset. Prices collapse due to a massive sell-off, and an overwhelming majority go bankrupt. But you could always plant your bulb with the expectation of a pretty flower in the Spring.
	__________________ "Reality is what's left when you cease to believe." Philip K. Dick

21st November 2022, 03:51 PM	#2869
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,869	Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto The Cautionary Tale: Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble But you could always plant your bulb with the expectation of a pretty flower in the Spring. What does this irrelevant story have to do with bitcoin?
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

21st November 2022, 03:55 PM	#2870
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,869	Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke I've don't know for sure what the speculators\gamblers might do with the bitcoin price. I'm just explaining why you are wrong to say "holding works every single time" where it clearly doesn't for anyone who bought at anything above the current price. Yeah, maybe one day it will "crush" (cringe) the magic number of $60K, or maybe it won't. You seem to be implying that it is guaranteed, which is obviously silly. You know very well that I specifically denied that it was guaranteed because you responded to that post. I merely pointed out that the odds were good. OTOH you are arguing that bitcoin will never reach its peak price again - just like everybody else before you who no longer posts on this thread.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

21st November 2022, 05:10 PM	#2871
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,270	Originally Posted by psionl0 What does this irrelevant story have to do with bitcoin? That you can't plant your bitcoin and have a pretty flower in spring?

21st November 2022, 05:29 PM	#2872
Stankeye Critical Thinker Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 281	Originally Posted by dudalb Now talk that Freid will face bribery charges for some of the "donations" he made to people in congress (of both parties, be it noted). Where did you get that info about both parties? Not even the WaPo has mentioned any donations FTX made to republicans.
Stankeye Critical Thinker Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 281

21st November 2022, 05:31 PM	#2873
Stankeye Critical Thinker Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 281	Oh I see. He gave a pittence to conservatives..so he donted to "both parties") https://www.opensecrets.org/outside-...=V&superonly=N
Stankeye Critical Thinker Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 281

21st November 2022, 07:05 PM	#2874
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 44,911	So SBF and his girlfriend took most of the real cash, speculated with it and lost it all. Not exactly financial geniuses. Some people must have been making their fortunes out of FTX. Also, apparently, when people thought their money was going to FTX it was going direct to Alameda.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

21st November 2022, 07:28 PM	#2875
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,869	Originally Posted by Samson That you can't plant your bitcoin and have a pretty flower in spring? So, no relevance investment wise.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

21st November 2022, 07:49 PM	#2876
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,621	Gotta love this piece: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...sh/ar-AA14o3bf Quote: But at the very worst – if cryptos ARE a complete scam – cryptocurrencies will still boom. Why? Because they’re a better version of online gambling! If people have an opportunity to turn $1 into $10, they will take it. IE, in the worst case it's bound to go up because people like to gamble. Well alrightly. There's something to that. People like to gamble. Not sure how that means it is guaranteed to go up but what do I know. Just be careful of counterparty risk. Pretty difficult approaching impossible to trade w/o an exchange but as long as you keep most of your digital assets not actively trading in cold wallets, your exposure to that is limited to the stuff you put on the exchanges like FTX.
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,621	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.