Continuation The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I have a hypothesis that I really hope to see tested sometime soon: The way to handle urban combat in a modern conventional war is to bypass the city and the troops entrenched there, cut off power, water, and road access, and continue maneuvering on to the next strategic nexus. Batter the occupiers with artillery every time they try to sortie. Set up a refugee station and welcome with open arms anyone who exits the city with their hands up.

Russia's best troops are there? Great. Let them rot there, with no food or water or resupply, while the UAF exploits their conspicuous absence from the battlefield. There will be plenty of time to dislodge scurvy-ridden occupiers from the cities, once all the decisive battles have been fought and the war has been won.

If the UAF can get to the south bank of the Dnipro then I'm thinking that may be the way. However, when Russia says they're evacuating, I think they just mean Russian civilians, not Ukrainians. So, that means mass starvation for their own people?

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

If the UAF can get to the south bank of the Dnipro then I'm thinking that may be the way. However, when Russia says they're evacuating, I think they just mean Russian civilians, not Ukrainians. So, that means mass starvation for their own people?

Again, refugee stations. Anyone leaving the city in the Western direction walks right into the loving embrace of a Ukrainian refugee camp or POW camp, depending on how they're triaged on approach.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Again, refugee stations. Anyone leaving the city in the Western direction walks right into the loving embrace of a Ukrainian refugee camp or POW camp, depending on how they're triaged on approach.

I don't know if that will work. Stories are circulating about Russian troops with orders to shoot their own deserters. Seems they may well do the same to fleeing civilians.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

I don't know if that will work. Stories are circulating about Russian troops with orders to shoot their own deserters. Seems they may well do the same to fleeing civilians.

I'm thinking the same. They'll use Ukrainian civilians as hostages, both against starving out the occupiers, and to prevent large scale artillery attacks on the city. We still haven't seen any really large scale urban combat in Ukraine (some, on the edged of Bakhmut, yes).

[thines]

Exactly - this would be the land version of MacArthur's "wither on the vine" strategy from the Pacific theater in WWII.

[Arcade22]

Putin has declined to issue a decree ending the "partial mobilization". This means that despite publicly stating that it's finished there's nothing preventing further drafting of individuals in the future.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

I don't know if that will work. Stories are circulating about Russian troops with orders to shoot their own deserters. Seems they may well do the same to fleeing civilians.

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

I'm thinking the same. They'll use Ukrainian civilians as hostages, both against starving out the occupiers, and to prevent large scale artillery attacks on the city. We still haven't seen any really large scale urban combat in Ukraine (some, on the edged of Bakhmut, yes).

Hostage situations are always tricky. But going in shooting is widely regarded as a highly undesirable solution. Cutting off power and water, and dragging out peaceful negotiations for as long as it takes for the terrorists to lose hope and surrender, is usually preferable, even if it means the hostages must suffer hardships in the meantime.

[Dragon]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Source? I'm not seeing this anywhere else on r/ukraine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...nce-in-kherson

Quote:

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the evacuation of civilians – and monuments – is nothing but a Kremlin-masterminded trap to create an illusion of panic.
“Their best-trained troops are in place. Nobody left. We see it and don’t believe them,” he told Corriere della Sera, an Italian newspaper, on Thursday.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I have a hypothesis that I really hope to see tested sometime soon: The way to handle urban combat in a modern conventional war is to bypass the city and the troops entrenched there, cut off power, water, and road access, and continue maneuvering on to the next strategic nexus. Batter the occupiers with artillery every time they try to sortie. Set up a refugee station and welcome with open arms anyone who exits the city with their hands up.

Russia's best troops are there? Great. Let them rot there, with no food or water or resupply, while the UAF exploits their conspicuous absence from the battlefield. There will be plenty of time to dislodge scurvy-ridden occupiers from the cities, once all the decisive battles have been fought and the war has been won.

That is similar to my thinking: There is no urgency for Ukraine to actually conquer the entire city by tommorrow second breakfast, as long as they can gain control of the entire region right of the Dnipro. The crucial, strategic goal, short term, is the ability to deny any and all river crossings by Russians, in either direction. For that, Ukraine needs only advance close enough so that any stretch of the river comes into easy artillery range.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Dragon

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...nce-in-kherson

Thanks! It's also being reported in the Ukrainian press, which adds credibility.

The fact that he said it in an interview with an Italian paper, rather than in one of his daily addresses to the Ukrainian people and their supporters around the world, suggests it is not currently a major concern.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Oystein

That is similar to my thinking: There is no urgency for Ukraine to actually conquer the entire city by tommorrow second breakfast, as long as they can gain control of the entire region right of the Dnipro. The crucial, strategic goal, short term, is the ability to deny any and all river crossings by Russians, in either direction. For that, Ukraine needs only advance close enough so that any stretch of the river comes into easy artillery range.

Von Clausewitz has some observations about fortresses, and how they generally favor the army in the field over the army in the fortress.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

I don't know if that will work. Stories are circulating about Russian troops with orders to shoot their own deserters. Seems they may well do the same to fleeing civilians.

Are there historical examples where "shooting one's own deserters" has improved military capabilities and outcomes? I would guess it's a function of the percentage of soldiers contemplating desertion in a given theater of operations. I would further guess that the practice will have horrific effects on morale, cohesion and therefore effectiveness of military units if employed too often.

[Steve]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Are there historical examples where "shooting one's own deserters" has improved military capabilities and outcomes? I would guess it's a function of the percentage of soldiers contemplating desertion in a given theater of operations. I would further guess that the practice will have horrific effects on morale, cohesion and therefore effectiveness of military units if employed too often.

"The shootings will continue until morale improves."

[theprestige]

The more bullets they use on fleeing civilians, the less they have when their backs are against the wall. The more civilians they keep in the city, the more angry, cold, and hungry civilians they'll have to deal with when things get really bad.

If there's one thing we've learned from Iraq and literally everywhere else it's ever been tried, it's that sharing a city with radicalized civilians is not a winning strategy. Now imagine being trapped in such a city.

Plus, Kherson's perimeter must certainly be far too porous for the occupiers to guarantee total control. The longer the siege continues, the more Ukrainian commandos, saboteurs, and assassins will infiltrate.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Are there historical examples where "shooting one's own deserters" has improved military capabilities and outcomes? I would guess it's a function of the percentage of soldiers contemplating desertion in a given theater of operations. I would further guess that the practice will have horrific effects on morale, cohesion and therefore effectiveness of military units if employed too often.

It may or may not have been effective but it is part of the Great Patriotic War narrative and myth that the Russians are taught.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Are there historical examples where "shooting one's own deserters" has improved military capabilities and outcomes? I would guess it's a function of the percentage of soldiers contemplating desertion in a given theater of operations. I would further guess that the practice will have horrific effects on morale, cohesion and therefore effectiveness of military units if employed too often.

I'm not exactly an expert on the subject, but I would hazard a qualified yes to that. I think of the concept to be more of a holdover from a time when a major portion of an army's strength was made up of unskilled peasant conscripts, though, and has become outdated for the most part as such forces have become largely useless and thus are no longer used. I can see it having some value with the Russian army, though, given that even the trained parts of their army frequently seems to be little better than a horde of unskilled peasant conscripts. As for the rest, well, peasant conscripts looks like it's probably pretty accurate.

[The Don]

I was doing my usual scan through the various Ukraine-related channels this morning and it seems that Russia's mobilisations may be having an effect. The reports are that 100,000 new recruits have arrived in theatre since the start of the mobilisation.

In the last 24 hours Russia has made gains around Bilohorivka (which was recaptured by Ukraine in the Kharkiv rout), in the south near Pavlivka as well as their ongoing attack on Bakhmut.

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by The Don

I was doing my usual scan through the various Ukraine-related channels this morning and it seems that Russia's mobilisations may be having an effect. The reports are that 100,000 new recruits have arrived in theatre since the start of the mobilisation.

In the last 24 hours Russia has made gains around Bilohorivka (which was recaptured by Ukraine in the Kharkiv rout), in the south near Pavlivka as well as their ongoing attack on Bakhmut.

Some info:
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1...103040/photo/1

As for Bakhmut, no success for Russians since they were removed from it. Seems that Russian units are just getting annihilated by WW1-like defenses. Effectively no advance/success for months.

[a_unique_person]

Putin isn't worried. He will do what he did in Syria and kill the civilians. Easy targets.

[eerok]

Ukrainian partisans are doing well.

Verified Ukrainian Partisan Attacks against Russian Occupation Forces (understandingwar.org)

Quote:

Russian occupation forces have so far failed to neutralize Ukraine’s organized partisan movement as of November 2022 and are unlikely to possess the capability to do so.

Quote:

Ukrainian partisan attacks have diverted Russian resources away from the front line to help secure rear areas, degrading Russian capabilities to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensives, let alone conduct their own offensive operations.

[Drewbot]

What would a huge build up of Russians in Kherson, and a continuous offensive in the area of Bakhmut tell me is going to happen?

A possible drive on Mariupol, splitting the Russian army.

[timhau]

Accordeing to our local papers, Putin is calling for the modernization of Russian army weaponry, through the free competition between weapons developers and manufacturers.

Good luck with that. Developing and manufacturing better weapons is hard and expensive, buying key military officials is a much more economical route to success.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by timhau

Accordeing to our local papers, Putin is calling for the modernization of Russian army weaponry, through the free competition between weapons developers and manufacturers.

Good luck with that. Developing and manufacturing better weapons is hard and expensive, buying key military officials is a much more economical route to success.

They have been doing that this whole time, though. Ever since the Soviet era, even. Competing tank designers and manufacturers. Competing aircraft designers and manufacturers. The issue is not that they're overlooking this basic process for modernization, it's that they can't afford to keep it up, and they're too corrupt to actually realize the benefits. Mikoyan is on life support right now, and Sukhoi has exactly one functional fighter-bomber platform to offer. Compare with the US MIC, that has like four competitive top-tier aerospace contractors. Even when one of them ends up riding the bench for a season, it's still ready to get right out on the field if the coach needs to put them back in the game. Meanwhile the EU brings another three or four to the table.

Yeah, Putin. of course you want to modernize your army through competition between developers and manufacturers. Now you just have to find people who are smart enough and honest enough to make it happen. And you probably should look into getting those sanctions lifted, so you can build up an economy that can actually afford to make it happen.

[kookbreaker]

It is possible that the surge of draftees without proper gear are just targets.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/stor...286-2022-11-02

[SpitfireIX]

From Time:

Poland Orders Border Wall With Russia’s Kaliningrad, Cites Security and Migrant Crossings

And they're going to make Russia pay for it.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by kookbreaker

It is possible that the surge of draftees without proper gear are just targets.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/stor...286-2022-11-02

+800 per the official source:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/...170432/photo/1

I make that 3,020 casualties (do they just count KIA? I don't know), 55 tanks, and 124 APC's... in the last 4 days. Roughly a mechanized brigade size force.

According to Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, 41,000 reservists were called up and deployed to the battlefield.

So... about half a percent of their called up reservists lost per day. That aint sustainable.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by kookbreaker

It is possible that the surge of draftees without proper gear are just targets.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/stor...286-2022-11-02

What else could they possibly be? You go to war with the army you have, not the army you wish to have or fantasize about having at a later date.

But to answer my own question: They could also possibly be just labor on and behind the front lines. Porters, ditch-diggers, drivers, etc.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by kookbreaker

It is possible that the surge of draftees without proper gear are just targets.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/stor...286-2022-11-02

"Pick up the rifle of the man ahead of you when he is killed".

Old Russian Custom.

[jimbob]

A war diary.

By a Ukrainian civilian

Not an easy read

https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/o...war-diary-Kyiv

[sackett]

Originally Posted by dudalb

"Pick up the rifle of the man ahead of you when he is killed".

Old Russian Custom.

Well, an old Russian folk belief anyway.

Stalingrad has a mythology, like the rest of the great patriarchal war. The USSR grew its own mythical crust, both at home and out here in the west.

No wonder; World War 3 lasted a long time. Is it finally ending? Or flaring up again?

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by sackett

Well, an old Russian folk belief anyway.

Stalingrad has a mythology, like the rest of the great patriarchal war. The USSR grew its own mythical crust, both at home and out here in the west.

No wonder; World War 3 lasted a long time. Is it finally ending? Or flaring up again?

I don't think WW3 ends as long as Russia remains relatively intact and retains its nuclear arsenal.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by sackett

Well, an old Russian folk belief anyway.

Stalingrad has a mythology, like the rest of the great patriarchal war. The USSR grew its own mythical crust, both at home and out here in the west.

No wonder; World War 3 lasted a long time. Is it finally ending? Or flaring up again?

Actually the whole pick up the rifle of your fallen comrade dates back to the Napoleonic wars. Apparently it happened quite frequently for real in World War One where the terrible logitstics was a major reason the Russian armies just collapsed in 1917.

[Mike!]

A friend just called and said he'd seen a post on facebook that there are now U.S. troops in Ukraine, can anyone fine anything on this, I'm coming up empty.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Mike!

A friend just called and said he'd seen a post on facebook that there are now U.S. troops in Ukraine, can anyone fine anything on this, I'm coming up empty.

It has recently been announced that the US has sent auditors to Ukraine to verify the disposition of all the military aid being sent to that county. This is a reasonable and necessary part of responsible oversight. It goes hand in hand with Ukraine adopting NATO's supply chain management system. These auditors are not troops. They are not "military advisors" like the Green Berets in Vietnam. They're not Navy SEALs or Army Rangers or Delta Force. They're bureaucrats.

I'm sure the US and other NATO members are doing more secret squirrel stuff in Ukraine than they're admitting to, but the notion that Russia is actually going toe to toe with NATO's finest in the field is pure woo.

Also your friend is kind of a jerk for reporting Facebook posts secondhand. Did they even send you a link?

ETA: Also the 101st Airborne just got deployed to Poland, I believe. This is supposedly a normal rotation of troops, but may incorporate a subtle increase in readiness for action by NATO. And of course Poland is not quite Ukraine.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Mike!

A friend just called and said he'd seen a post on facebook that there are now U.S. troops in Ukraine, can anyone fine anything on this, I'm coming up empty.

Oh, I have no doubt there are covert US ops going in Ukarine, but no evidence of uniformed troops.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by theprestige

It has recently been announced that the US has sent auditors to Ukraine to verify the disposition of all the military aid being sent to that county. This is a reasonable and necessary part of responsible oversight. It goes hand in hand with Ukraine adopting NATO's supply chain management system. These auditors are not troops. They are not "military advisors" like the Green Berets in Vietnam. They're not Navy SEALs or Army Rangers or Delta Force. They're bureaucrats.

I'm sure the US and other NATO members are doing more secret squirrel stuff in Ukraine than they're admitting to, but the notion that Russia is actually going toe to toe with NATO's finest in the field is pure woo.

Also your friend is kind of a jerk for reporting Facebook posts secondhand. Did they even send you a link?

ETA: Also the 101st Airborne just got deployed to Poland, I believe. This is supposedly a normal rotation of troops, but may incorporate a subtle increase in readiness for action by NATO. And of course Poland is not quite Ukraine.

I am betting the Green Berets..in civilian clothing, have been n the ground in the Ukraine since early on.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by theprestige

It has recently been announced that the US has sent auditors to Ukraine to verify the disposition of all the military aid being sent to that county. This is a reasonable and necessary part of responsible oversight. It goes hand in hand with Ukraine adopting NATO's supply chain management system. These auditors are not troops. They are not "military advisors" like the Green Berets in Vietnam. They're not Navy SEALs or Army Rangers or Delta Force. They're bureaucrats.

I'm sure the US and other NATO members are doing more secret squirrel stuff in Ukraine than they're admitting to, but the notion that Russia is actually going toe to toe with NATO's finest in the field is pure woo.

Also your friend is kind of a jerk for reporting Facebook posts secondhand. Did they even send you a link?

ETA: Also the 101st Airborne just got deployed to Poland, I believe. This is supposedly a normal rotation of troops, but may incorporate a subtle increase in readiness for action by NATO. And of course Poland is not quite Ukraine.

US Marines will be conducting joint operational training with the Finnish Army this month. Finland seems to be a regular duty station for Uncle Sam's Misguided Children since NATO's northern wing, as far as land warfare goes, is the Marines responsiblity under current US strategy.

[crescent]

Originally Posted by Mike!

A friend just called and said he'd seen a post on facebook that there are now U.S. troops in Ukraine, can anyone fine anything on this, I'm coming up empty.

Originally Posted by theprestige

It has recently been announced that the US has sent auditors to Ukraine to verify the disposition of all the military aid being sent to that county. This is a reasonable and necessary part of responsible oversight. It goes hand in hand with Ukraine adopting NATO's supply chain management system. These auditors are not troops. They are not "military advisors" like the Green Berets in Vietnam. They're not Navy SEALs or Army Rangers or Delta Force. They're bureaucrats.

I'm sure the US and other NATO members are doing more secret squirrel stuff in Ukraine than they're admitting to, but the notion that Russia is actually going toe to toe with NATO's finest in the field is pure woo.

Also your friend is kind of a jerk for reporting Facebook posts secondhand. Did they even send you a link?

ETA: Also the 101st Airborne just got deployed to Poland, I believe. This is supposedly a normal rotation of troops, but may incorporate a subtle increase in readiness for action by NATO. And of course Poland is not quite Ukraine.

Originally Posted by dudalb

Oh, I have no doubt there are covert US ops going in Ukarine, but no evidence of uniformed troops.

Originally Posted by dudalb

I am betting the Green Berets..in civilian clothing, have been n the ground in the Ukraine since early on.

Originally Posted by dudalb

US Marines will be conducting joint operational training with the Finnish Army this month. Finland seems to be a regular duty station for Uncle Sam's Misguided Children since NATO's northern wing, as far as land warfare goes, is the Marines responsiblity under current US strategy.

There have been claims about U.S. troops on the ground since the beginning - the very beginning as in 2014. Back then they made specific claims about which units were there, I don't remember the claim now but our Dear Departed CE probably made them.

More recently the Ruskophiles claimed that Russia was going to capture a U.S. General or Admiral in Mariupol. Then crickets once the Mariupol garrison finally surrendered.

The most recent cite I saw was citing the presence of Marines guarding the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv. Which is probably true in addition to what the others have said. But the Ruskophiles blew that out of proportion because they're idiots. As far as I know every U.S. Embassy has a Marine guard, like a half dozen Jarheads who oversee the training and operation of the civilian guards. And look intimidating, which they're good at.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by theprestige

...
ETA: Also the 101st Airborne just got deployed to Poland, I believe.

Romania

Originally Posted by theprestige

This is supposedly a normal rotation of troops, but may incorporate a subtle increase in readiness for action by NATO.

They've been conducting publicized excercizes and air assault demonstrations really close to the Ukrainian border.

Originally Posted by theprestige

And of course Poland Romania is not quite Ukraine.

But conveniently close to the Black Sea - and Moldova.
I wonder if the presence of an highly capable air force has convinced the Ruscists that they no longer can disrupt freight shipping out of Odesa without facing quick consequences.

[jeremyp]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I am betting the Green Berets..in civilian clothing, have been n the ground in the Ukraine since early on.

I'll take that bet. The repercussions if Russia caught any of them would be disastrous.