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Old 11th January 2019, 10:25 AM   #1841
Amazer
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
That is one thing that Tusk has said was OK, IIRC.

Face it, although the UK would be far worse off with a no-deal Brexit, it would also harm other EU countries.
Sure, but such a request for an extension has to be matched with the possibility of reaching agreement on the deal and in a timely fashion. The EU has already ruled out any further negotiations... to me it's seems that you are just delaying the inevitable... an exit without a deal.
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Old 11th January 2019, 10:25 AM   #1842
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
That is one thing that Tusk has said was OK, IIRC.

Face it, although the UK would be far worse off with a no-deal Brexit, it would also harm other EU countries.
All 27 countries would need to agree, and Donald Tusk doesn't speak for 27 governments.
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Old 11th January 2019, 10:40 AM   #1843
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
Sure, but such a request for an extension has to be matched with the possibility of reaching agreement on the deal and in a timely fashion. The EU has already ruled out any further negotiations... to me it's seems that you are just delaying the inevitable... an exit without a deal.
Ok then, ABORT!
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Old 11th January 2019, 11:09 AM   #1844
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Ok then, ABORT!
Revoke article 50? That will be fun!

I can honestly only see that happening as a result of another referendum... or perhaps another election where one of the parties runs revoking article 50 as their main policy objective.

The current UK government doesn't seem that interested in either solution though.
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Old 11th January 2019, 11:17 AM   #1845
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
Revoke article 50? That will be fun!

I can honestly only see that happening as a result of another referendum... or perhaps another election where one of the parties runs revoking article 50 as their main policy objective.

The current UK government doesn't seem that interested in either solution though.
Regardless, it seems like the lesser evil right now, unless the UK just wants to weather the storm for the next generation and avoid the presumed EU collapse/whatever.
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Old 11th January 2019, 12:05 PM   #1846
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
Revoke article 50? That will be fun!

I can honestly only see that happening as a result of another referendum... or perhaps another election where one of the parties runs revoking article 50 as their main policy objective.

The current UK government doesn't seem that interested in either solution though.
Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Regardless, it seems like the lesser evil right now, unless the UK just wants to weather the storm for the next generation and avoid the presumed EU collapse/whatever.
The longer the delay, and the more people see what the consequences of no deal, the more a second referendum will be seen as the only way out of the deadlock.

Even now, 3% of the people entitled to vote in my constituency were under 18 at the time of referendum. Demographics is making Brexit less popular, regardless of the fiasco of Grayling and May.
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Old 11th January 2019, 12:13 PM   #1847
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Regardless, it seems like the lesser evil right now, unless the UK just wants to weather the storm for the next generation and avoid the presumed EU collapse/whatever.
And as it happens revoking Article 50 is something that the UK can do unilaterally according to the European Court of Justice.

Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
The longer the delay, and the more people see what the consequences of no deal, the more a second referendum will be seen as the only way out of the deadlock.

Even now, 3% of the people entitled to vote in my constituency were under 18 at the time of referendum. Demographics is making Brexit less popular, regardless of the fiasco of Grayling and May.
And how many of those voted Leave did so with the assurance that the EU would have to give us a favourable deal? What is on offer in no way resembles what was promised time to call a halt to the sorry mess.
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Old 11th January 2019, 02:17 PM   #1848
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
And as it happens revoking Article 50 is something that the UK can do unilaterally according to the European Court of Justice.



And how many of those voted Leave did so with the assurance that the EU would have to give us a favourable deal? What is on offer in no way resembles what was promised time to call a halt to the sorry mess.

How many voted leave to give £350M / week to the NHS?
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Old 11th January 2019, 03:24 PM   #1849
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
How many voted leave to give £350M / week to the NHS?
Exactly, the majority of Leave voters did so on the assurance of economic and social benefits to the UK that it is now painfully obvious were wishful thinking at best and outright lies at worst. This 'Brexit means Brexit' BS is leading to nonsense like a ferry company with no ferries.
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Old 11th January 2019, 03:36 PM   #1850
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
How likely is it that all 27 EU-members will agree to a delay?

Sent from my SM-J700F using Tapatalk
Is it not the official opinion of the ECJ that the UK can revoke article 50!unilaterally?
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Old 11th January 2019, 03:38 PM   #1851
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
How many voted leave to give £350M / week to the NHS?
No idea. Probably not many given that they are all *****!
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Old 11th January 2019, 05:53 PM   #1852
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Is it not the official opinion of the ECJ that the UK can revoke article 50!unilaterally?
It is.... but revoking article 50 isn't quite the same as delaying article 50.
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Old 12th January 2019, 03:44 AM   #1853
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
How likely is it that all 27 EU-members will agree to a delay?
They'd probably be happy so long as it ends before May 23. I don't think the EU would want to go through the effort of having to run a parliamentary election for a country that's leaving not too long afterwards.
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Old 12th January 2019, 03:52 AM   #1854
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They had that Sked on TV yesterday saying that he is looking forward to a hard Brexit and the UK then can easily trade with the EU on WTO rules. I don't think that's academically satisfactory, or will work in practice. Has he ever tried negotiating with the EU about the matter? There is a bit about the matter at this website:

http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

Quote:
The WTO Option is an approach to Brexit much favoured by some groupings. It is an approach where the UK leaves the EU without having negotiated any trade agreements with the EU, either within the framework of Article 50 negotiations, or on the margins. Instead, it relies entirely on multilateral WTO agreements covering trade-related matters.

The general thrust of the WTO Option argument is that: "Were the UK to leave the EU, it would continue to have access to the EU's markets, as World Trade Organisation rules prevent the EU from imposing unfair, punitive tariffs on UK exports". In reality, the WTO rules only afford very limited protection against discrimination, and then only in respect of tariffs - which are no longer central to trade matters.

As the WTO site itself says, "by their very nature RTAs (Regional Trade Agreements — as is the EU) are discriminatory", and, under WTO rules, an amount of discrimination against third countries (and that would include the UK) is permitted.

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Old 12th January 2019, 04:19 AM   #1855
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It seems more and more commentators are now coming out with the 'Article 50 will need to be extended line' and they all seem to say it as if its just something TM can do at her behest. It isn't. And they either know that or are incompetent.

I'm not sure what the deadline is for making that decision because there will be a time lag between asking for it and 27 EU countries approving it. There is also the risk one or more say No at the first time of asking so it would really need to be done helluva soon to allow Plan C to enacted.

I would think there is also an element of a game of chicken since if she asks for an extension she is showing her hand that she needs more time and countries will see that if she doesn't get it she wouldn't have much choice but to revoke A50 at least for the time being.
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Old 12th January 2019, 07:14 AM   #1856
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
They'd probably be happy so long as it ends before May 23. I don't think the EU would want to go through the effort of having to run a parliamentary election for a country that's leaving not too long afterwards.
I can see them agree to that.... I just don't expect another 2 months will make any difference to the internal politics of the UK.
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Old 12th January 2019, 07:18 AM   #1857
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
It is.... but revoking article 50 isn't quite the same as delaying article 50.
Okay, how about this?

UK Gov: Can we delay Article 50?
EU27: No
UK Gov: Okay, we will revoke it
EU27: Um...okay
UK Gov: Now, we will start it up again.

It amounts to the same thing.
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Old 12th January 2019, 07:22 AM   #1858
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Originally Posted by Henri McPhee View Post
They had that Sked on TV yesterday saying that he is looking forward to a hard Brexit and the UK then can easily trade with the EU on WTO rules. I don't think that's academically satisfactory, or will work in practice. Has he ever tried negotiating with the EU about the matter? There is a bit about the matter at this website:

http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128
I saw Dr Sked at a conference some years ago. He is actually quite learned and some kind of economist.

Unfortunately, his UKIP supporters in the audience were a bunch of bovver-booted, braces and mutton chop sideboard skinhead morons.

I stood up to ask him a challenging question. Afterwards outside, the guy I was with said, right run!

This was after we were approached by one of these intimidating characters who wanted to give me a lecture on British patriotism.
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Old 12th January 2019, 07:31 AM   #1859
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Okay, how about this?

UK Gov: Can we delay Article 50?
EU27: No
UK Gov: Okay, we will revoke it
EU27: Um...okay
UK Gov: Now, we will start it up again.

It amounts to the same thing.
I would hope that the UK government wouldn't stoop to such an infantile approach... which most likely means that they totally would
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Old 12th January 2019, 07:42 AM   #1860
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Okay, how about this?

UK Gov: Can we delay Article 50?
EU27: No
UK Gov: Okay, we will revoke it
EU27: Um...okay
UK Gov: Now, we will start it up again.

It amounts to the same thing.
Except it will tie the UK to the EU for another 2 years. A new funding cycle will start in 2020. That could cost the Uk a lot more as they will be signatories to a 5 year funding cycle.
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Old 12th January 2019, 07:59 AM   #1861
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Except it will tie the UK to the EU for another 2 years. A new funding cycle will start in 2020. That could cost the Uk a lot more as they will be signatories to a 5 year funding cycle.
Lol... the Brexiteers could/would suddenly turn into ardent no no-deal supporters overnight if that outcome became likely.
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Old 12th January 2019, 08:10 AM   #1862
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Okay, how about this?

UK Gov: Can we delay Article 50?
EU27: No
UK Gov: Okay, we will revoke it
EU27: Um...okay
UK Gov: Now, we will start it up again.

It amounts to the same thing.
It would restart a new 2 year cycle and lose the UK any remaining good faith in negotiations but it would certainly be possible.
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Old 12th January 2019, 09:25 AM   #1863
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
I would hope that the UK government wouldn't stoop to such an infantile approach... which most likely means that they totally would
Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Except it will tie the UK to the EU for another 2 years. A new funding cycle will start in 2020. That could cost the Uk a lot more as they will be signatories to a 5 year funding cycle.
Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
Lol... the Brexiteers could/would suddenly turn into ardent no no-deal supporters overnight if that outcome became likely.
Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
It would restart a new 2 year cycle and lose the UK any remaining good faith in negotiations but it would certainly be possible.
It seems to me that Brexiters already are for no deal. There is nothing else that they can really get that would satisfy their main demands, it seems to me.

Of course, this has not always been the case. Plenty of them believed it was perfectly possible to stay in the single market and customs union, but simply have no free movement of people. They assured everyone that the EU would be mad not to give the UK everything the Brexiters wanted. When it turned out not to be the case they claimed to have been against the single market from the start and quickly enough it was argued that that was what the referendum was about.

To be honest, I think the only reason for "extending negotiations" is to basically prevent Brexit, which means Brexit supporters in Parliament are already against it. So, revoking article 50 with an eye to restarting the process later, is really about doing the first part and hoping nobody gets round to the second.
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Old 12th January 2019, 02:41 PM   #1864
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Okay, how about this?



UK Gov: Can we delay Article 50?

EU27: No

UK Gov: Okay, we will revoke it

EU27: Um...okay

UK Gov: Now, we will start it up again.



It amounts to the same thing.
I made this point earlier, the UK (and any other EU country) can switch leaving on and off as often as they like so it would be rather pointless for other EU countries to object to an extention.
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Old 12th January 2019, 02:45 PM   #1865
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
It would restart a new 2 year cycle and lose the UK any remaining good faith in negotiations but it would certainly be possible.
Really not sure about the practical value of "good faith", our internal machinations are viewable to the EU it isn't as if we were trying to pull the wool over their eyes or something. They know - as we do - that the country is all over the place and that there is no deal that will ever please even a large minority of the country. All I think we can ask for and should expect from the EU is honest negotiations. And from all accounts that's what we've had from them.
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Old 12th January 2019, 02:48 PM   #1866
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Except it will tie the UK to the EU for another 2 years. A new funding cycle will start in 2020. That could cost the Uk a lot more as they will be signatories to a 5 year funding cycle.
For the extremists like Mogg and the political careerists like Johnson such things are less than incidentals. For Mogg he simply would say we don't pay anything, for Johnson we are here to pay whatever it costs for him to be PM.
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Old 12th January 2019, 04:13 PM   #1867
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Okay, how about this?

UK Gov: Can we delay Article 50?
EU27: No
UK Gov: Okay, we will revoke it
EU27: Um...okay
UK Gov: Now, we will start it up again.

It amounts to the same thing.

They should let the U.K. start it again wherever they left off before.
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Old 13th January 2019, 03:40 AM   #1868
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
It seems to me that Brexiters already are for no deal. There is nothing else that they can really get that would satisfy their main demands, it seems to me.
My point was that if it seemed very likely that the government would revoke article 50 (with or without intent to restart the 2 year process once more) that a lot of Brexiteers might actually start supporting May's current deal as that does get them out of the EU almost immediately.
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Old 13th January 2019, 03:50 AM   #1869
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Plenty of them believed it was perfectly possible to stay in the single market and customs union, but simply have no free movement of people.
This comes back to the old dilemma of whether they were lying or stupid. I'm inclined to go with lying - I think they merely said and are continuing to say whatever they thought/think was/is expedient to say.
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Old 13th January 2019, 03:55 AM   #1870
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Really not sure about the practical value of "good faith", our internal machinations are viewable to the EU it isn't as if we were trying to pull the wool over their eyes or something. They know - as we do - that the country is all over the place and that there is no deal that will ever please even a large minority of the country. All I think we can ask for and should expect from the EU is honest negotiations. And from all accounts that's what we've had from them.
I think 'good faith' has a huge value in any negotiations. And I think the UK has been doing its best to erode it over the past 2 years.

I think there is a big difference between going to them cap in hand and saying 'look we don't have a way forward on this but we have a plan to resolve it and we need another 6 months' than 'look this is a shambles, can you give us another 6 months to get our **** together hopefully'. I also think there is a big difference between revoking A50 and even saying 'we will come back when we have a firm plan' and revoking it at lunchtime and re-submitting it before dinner.

If this ******** has taught us anything surely it is that we should know what we are doing BEFORE we trigger A50. Not set a ticking timebomb in motion of our own accord then start working on a plan.
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Old 13th January 2019, 03:56 AM   #1871
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
They should let the U.K. start it again wherever they left off before.
Why?

The repeated idea that 'they should just not apply the rules everyone signed up to' is what got us partly into this mess in the first place.
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Old 13th January 2019, 04:01 AM   #1872
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
My point was that if it seemed very likely that the government would revoke article 50 (with or without intent to restart the 2 year process once more) that a lot of Brexiteers might actually start supporting May's current deal as that does get them out of the EU almost immediately.
But if you look at TM's rhetoric she doesn't even talk about no-brexit anymore. If I was giving her credit for sense I would say she probably weighed up that no-deal is a bigger threat to remainers than no brexit is to leavers.

I think the one clear thing from the way this has played out is that both Labour and Tory are not in the least bit concerned about what is in the interests of the country but merely what is in the best interests of their respective parties from their perspectives.
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Old 13th January 2019, 04:09 AM   #1873
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Why?

The repeated idea that 'they should just not apply the rules everyone signed up to' is what got us partly into this mess in the first place.
I thought that quadraginta meant that the EU should just table the agreement that has already been negotiated again.... gives the UK 2 years to decide whether they want to accept it this time around.
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Old 13th January 2019, 04:12 AM   #1874
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
This comes back to the old dilemma of whether they were lying or stupid. I'm inclined to go with lying - I think they merely said and are continuing to say whatever they thought/think was/is expedient to say.
I don't think Rees Mogg is a fool - he's certainly made a very sensible set of decisions regarding his personal wealth. Ditto Redwood.

David Davis and Chris Grayling, however, whilst I am certain as to their competence, I have an open mind as to whether they knew/know they were/are peddling something impossible...
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Old 13th January 2019, 04:13 AM   #1875
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
But if you look at TM's rhetoric she doesn't even talk about no-brexit anymore. If I was giving her credit for sense I would say she probably weighed up that no-deal is a bigger threat to remainers than no brexit is to leavers.

I think the one clear thing from the way this has played out is that both Labour and Tory are not in the least bit concerned about what is in the interests of the country but merely what is in the best interests of their respective parties from their perspectives.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...er-theresa-may

From that article of today

Quote:
Writing in today’s Sunday Express, the Prime Minister begged the Commons to back her deal arguing not doing so would be “catastrophic.” In a last minute plea to win over MPs before the meaningful vote in just two days, Mrs May says if her deal is not passed on Tuesday then the UK risks crashing out of the EU without a deal or cancelling Brexit altogether. Mrs May added the 2016 referendum gave Parliament a “clear verdict” which it must follow through on.
So it would seem she doesn't rule out cancelling Brexit... I just think she needs to push that line a little harder than she has.
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Old 13th January 2019, 04:18 AM   #1876
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The problem is the referendum did not give Parliament a "clear verdict". It gave it the equivalent of an instruction to buy a takeaway without specifying whether it meant Chinese, Indian, fish & chips or a pizza. There never was a majority for any specific kind of Brexit, and there still isn't.
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Old 13th January 2019, 04:18 AM   #1877
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One of the things I worry about with TM is who has her ear. She seems to repeat Leaver BS like the above nonsense about a 'clear verdict' without engaging her brain to consider that a margin requiring a 2% swing that's already been achieved by demographics maybe isn't as clear as her Brexiteer puppetmasters might insist.
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Old 13th January 2019, 04:30 AM   #1878
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The problem is the referendum did not give Parliament a "clear verdict". It gave it the equivalent of an instruction to buy a takeaway without specifying whether it meant Chinese, Indian, fish & chips or a pizza.

Well, at least Seaborne might be able to deliver it.
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Old 13th January 2019, 04:33 AM   #1879
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The problem is the referendum did not give Parliament a "clear verdict". It gave it the equivalent of an instruction to buy a takeaway without specifying whether it meant Chinese, Indian, fish & chips or a pizza. There never was a majority for any specific kind of Brexit, and there still isn't.
And TM is trying to convince everyone they want 'hoose rice'
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Old 13th January 2019, 04:34 AM   #1880
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The problem is the referendum did not give Parliament a "clear verdict". It gave it the equivalent of an instruction to buy a takeaway without specifying whether it meant Chinese, Indian, fish & chips or a pizza. There never was a majority for any specific kind of Brexit, and there still isn't.

May as good as conceded that there was no clear verdict with the “Brexit means Brexit” nonsense.
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