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Old 31st August 2020, 01:50 PM   #121
Dr. Keith
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Why is he only creating 10 million jobs in ten months?

Why not 30 million?

I mean he lost something like 40 million just this spring. He knows he can't get those back?
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Old 31st August 2020, 01:59 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
You have to treat political trends like the stock market, the numbers aren't meaningful if you sit there and watch them go up and down, you have to step back and look at trends.
Indeed, as one might surmise from "2 weeks ago" and "4 weeks ago" mentions.

P.s. I was a data warehousing / analytics consultant for a couple decades.

Originally Posted by jnelso99 View Post
At this point, national polls are meaningless. It doesn’t matter if more Americans overall approve or disapprove of a candidate, as shown by the 2016 elections.
To be clear, there are national approve/disapprove polls. And national Trump v Biden polls. I don't think 538 includes the former in their aggregated margin.

At the moment, my (casual) interest is in understanding the 538 algorithm.

Quote:
Just pay attention to polling in swing states if you must pay attention to any polls at all.
For sure.
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Old 31st August 2020, 02:21 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
We've had 53 Superbowls. Imagine if, by some quirk in the scoring, ~4 of those Superbowls had been awarded to the team that had fewer points at the end of the game and whenever that anomaly occurred the AFC, team always got the win, never the NFC team.

Yeah... we would have changed that quirk by now. But it's not football, just the continued existence of the country as a stable western style democracy so let's not be dramatic about it or anything.
Maybe try baseball??

It's only the players that reach home plate that count. The number of hits or runners on base isn't important. Because those are the rules.
If the rules were changed to 'runners reaching the bases'....then the entire strategy of the game would shift- radically.
Totally and completely different game.

The USA plays the EC game, not the PV game. To know how a PV election would turn out, you'll have to actually change the rules and have one to see.
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Old 31st August 2020, 02:40 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Maybe try baseball??

It's only the players that reach home plate that count. The number of hits or runners on base isn't important. Because those are the rules.
If the rules were changed to 'runners reaching the bases'....then the entire strategy of the game would shift- radically.
Totally and completely different game.
Bad analogy.

The argument made is that the electoral college favors one party over another. A baseball analogy would be if one team (but not the other) automatically got a player on first base every inning.
Quote:
The USA plays the EC game, not the PV game. To know how a PV election would turn out, you'll have to actually change the rules and have one to see.
Even if parties change their strategies under a popular-vote rule, that doesn't mean its not a system worth using. The issue is "what's fair". If the EC is changed by the PV and the republicans change their strategies and still manage to win an election, at least they'd be winning under fair rules (and perhaps their party would be more responsive to the needs of the average voter).
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Old 31st August 2020, 02:47 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Maybe try baseball??

It's only the players that reach home plate that count. The number of hits or runners on base isn't important. Because ...

Sorry, I can only think about paint drying.
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Old 31st August 2020, 03:02 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Bad analogy.

The argument made is that the electoral college favors one party over another. A baseball analogy would be if one team (but not the other) automatically got a player on first base every inning.
Good analogy. If American League teams were better at getting runners on base, and National League teams were better at getting runners home, then the current rules would favor the National League.

And actually it's my understanding that some pro sports leagues have funding rules that tend to favor some teams over others. But I'm not sure if that's true or if it's a good analogy.
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Old 31st August 2020, 04:02 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
keep in mind that I said that a moderate has an advantage, not that they will always win. Outside factors can still have an impact... scandals, a candidates personality, incumbency, etc.
"Not always" is an interesting way to phrase "exactly 0% of the time", which is the frequency with which being moderate has helped a Democrat or failing to be moderate has harmed a Democrat in the last few decades. Why is the factor with the least effect on the outcome (none detectable) being treated as the biggest & most important?

Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
its not just a case of "how moderate is the democrat" but also "how moderate is the republican"
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
In 2016, Trump was actually seen as the more moderate candiate
If you're looking at a poll that somehow came up with a swamp-draining, opponent-jailing, treaty-breaking, federal-agency-sabotaging, wall-building "moderate", you're looking at a poll that found a way to mangle the word's usage beyond recognition. Perhaps that has something to do with left-&-right being the wrong spectrum on which to analyze Trump (and a lot of other American politics) in the first place.

But in any case, since that's on the Republican side, all that any explanation for that would do is highlight that the dynamics aren't the same for the two parties. Republican voters are more reliable so they don't need as much convincing, and a moderate Republican is one who wants to go the same way as the extremists but just slower or not as far. Democrats have trouble getting their voters to vote, and a moderate Democrat is not one who does the same stuff as an extreme Democrat in milder form, but one who does Republican stuff (which is part of why they have the turnout problem). Also, while the Democrat version of moderate is most of those who are in elected offices, the Republican version is pretty uncommon in elected offices. So none of the same moderate-or-not analysis works for both parties.

(And even if applying the same principles to both parties were a good way to look at this, that 0% success rate on the Democrat side would still be a pretty big hill for the added stuff from the Republican side to climb. The predictions one would make based on the Republicans' moderateness or lack thereof would need a 100% success rate just to break even overall... which would mean that, even then, all you would have done is prove that it works when applied to one party but not the other, so we would need to consider moderateness only for the Republican candidate. And yet, somehow, that's the side from which we never hear anybody say "we need a moderate or we'll lose".)

Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Lastly, the issue is not just republicans switching sides... one of the major advantages in picking a moderate is that it is less likely to energize the opposing side's base.
Then even if the principle were sound for prior elections, it would still be irrelevant for this one because the Republican base couldn't be more energized than they are right now. (They're the side with a candidate who's actually saying what they want to hear.)

Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
The fact is, Biden has a set of policies
Policy statements on a website nobody will read, which were probably written by somebody else instead of him for the purpose of trying to bring back an eroded base, and which don't match his record or his live observable behavior right now, mean nothing. A politician's real political message is not what gets hidden away in some obscure essay but what (s)he takes an active role in pushing out for everyone to see & hear as much as possible, so it's what we're reminded of whenever we see his/her face or hear his/her voice or read a short snippet of text from him/her, over & over again, without needing to go investigating & hunting for it. What message has Biden pushed like that? To the limited extent that there even is one at all, it's just "Trump is bad" and positive fluff equivalent to "America needs to be America again". And those are electorally useless. They inform nobody and motivate nobody.

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Old 31st August 2020, 07:19 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
538 has Biden's margin at 7.7 points. That's the narrowest it's been in a long time.

I'll be damned if I can figure out why though. Recent polling isn't distiguishable from 2 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago.
I think I know why. I suspect they recalculated the margin based on new polls, but those polls weren't yet displaying on the site.

They weight the polls based on historical accuracy of the pollster. This afternoon they added a poll from a highly rated source, Emerson College, which has Biden +3. (And another Emerson poll showing Trump's popularity +2.) The aggregate is now Biden +7.
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Old 1st September 2020, 06:57 AM   #129
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The deciding factor last time was 60 or 70 thousand votes in three states, so, if it's that close again this time and he loses, there will be an equivalent number the other way around: the number of votes in a certain few states that cost him the election instead of giving it to him, the number by which Biden barely scrapes by.

By election day, the number of people killed by the virus will be well over 200 thousand, primarily among the old, who happen to be the most reliable voters. And even some of those who aren't killed by it will be incapacitated for a period which includes that day.

So it's numerically possible for Trump to literally lose this election by getting enough of his own voters killed.
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Old 1st September 2020, 07:08 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
So it's numerically possible for Trump to literally lose this election by getting enough of his own voters killed.
That would be some fiting poetic justice.
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Old 1st September 2020, 07:33 AM   #131
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I think the plague keeping people home from voting and just a broader, general disruption of "the systems" (transportation, mail, childcare, etc) will be a much bigger factor across all demographics than the number its killed, which is why Trump is fighting life or death to kill remote voting methods of all kinds.
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Old 1st September 2020, 07:46 PM   #132
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Trump Retweeted
Raheem Kassam tweeted
@RaheemKassam

WARNING: Democrat Data Firm Admits ‘Incredible’ Trump Landslide Will Be Flipped By Mail-In Votes Emerging A Week After Election Day
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Old 1st September 2020, 10:28 PM   #133
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Never mind. Mis-read the post I replied to.
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Old 1st September 2020, 11:16 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump Retweeted
Raheem Kassam tweeted
@RaheemKassam

WARNING: Democrat Data Firm Admits ‘Incredible’ Trump Landslide Will Be Flipped By Mail-In Votes Emerging A Week After Election Day
WARNING: Republican Data Firm admits 'Incredible' Trump Loss Will Be Due to Fewer Idiots Voting for Him In Swing States.

(Gee...that was easy!)
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Old 2nd September 2020, 12:02 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump Retweeted
Raheem Kassam tweeted
@RaheemKassam

WARNING: Democrat Data Firm Admits ‘Incredible’ Trump Landslide Will Be Flipped By Mail-In Votes Emerging A Week After Election Day
This isn't normal behavior from a sitting president.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 09:20 AM   #136
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I put this in the Biden thread but it really belongs here:

Trump's campaign strategy: flood the right-wing social media echo chamber with falsehood after falsehood. There's one after the other so as soon as one outrageous claim begins to unravel, a new one has taken its place.

Fox and lots of internet trolls and bots will make sure to amplify each falsehood.

I believe that explains Trump's rise in the polls. Let's hope Biden can stay on the offensive and not fall into the defensive trap. That's one of Trump's tricks, getting the opponent trapped in refuting every false charge.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 09:24 AM   #137
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The protests and riots also help explain his rise in the polls. Look at all the paranoia, conspiracy theories, and general fear mongering when Obama won the presidency. Look at Trump's statements and policies. Look at the things the trumpkins themselves say and do. They're terrified of coloured people. Blacks protesting, and even some rioting, must be their worst nightmare come true.

The echo chambers do everything they can to amplify this effect, of course, but I think there would've been an effect regardlessly.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 09:29 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
This isn't normal behavior from a sitting president.
It is now.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 10:44 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
This isn't normal behavior from a sitting president.
It isn't normal behavior for anyone.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 11:52 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I put this in the Biden thread but it really belongs here:

Trump's campaign strategy: flood the right-wing social media echo chamber with falsehood after falsehood. There's one after the other so as soon as one outrageous claim begins to unravel, a new one has taken its place.
But the thing is, Trump has been doing that his entire political life, ever since he started running in 2016. He did win the presidency back then, but lost the popular vote (and the dynamics of this election are very different than that one.)

I think somewhere along the line, the falsehoods probably quit having an impact on the undecided voter, and he's only making those claims for his own base.
Quote:
I believe that explains Trump's rise in the polls. Let's hope Biden can stay on the offensive and not fall into the defensive trap. That's one of Trump's tricks, getting the opponent trapped in refuting every false charge.
I guess the question is, is Trump actually experiencing a rise in the polls?

If you look at the 538 polling average fivethirtyeight.com:
Currently, Trump sits at 42.9%. This is exactly where he was back on June 1. Since that time he has varied between around 41% and 43%. And the spread between Biden and Trump sits at 7%, which is lower than it had been a few weeks ago, but higher than it was on June 1. (Yes, you do occasionally hear about polls that show a much narrower gap, but there are also plenty of polls showing the spread between them still at 8 or 9%.)

The amazing thing about this election so far has been the consistency in the polling... Both sides have their convention, polls remain static. Another cop shooting and rioting break out... polls remain static. An increase and subsequent decrease in Covid19 cases.... polls remain static. Republican attacks on Biden... polls remain static. Biden selects Harris as VP candidate... polls remain static.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 12:16 PM   #141
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At this point in the Election, I welcome the tendency for the Media to see the race as more competitive than it probably is - it will make it more likely that this time, voters actually vote.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 12:20 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
But the thing is, Trump has been doing that his entire political life, ever since he started running in 2016. He did win the presidency back then, but lost the popular vote (and the dynamics of this election are very different than that one.)

I think somewhere along the line, the falsehoods probably quit having an impact on the undecided voter, and he's only making those claims for his own base.

I guess the question is, is Trump actually experiencing a rise in the polls?

If you look at the 538 polling average fivethirtyeight.com:
Currently, Trump sits at 42.9%. This is exactly where he was back on June 1. Since that time he has varied between around 41% and 43%. And the spread between Biden and Trump sits at 7%, which is lower than it had been a few weeks ago, but higher than it was on June 1. (Yes, you do occasionally hear about polls that show a much narrower gap, but there are also plenty of polls showing the spread between them still at 8 or 9%.)

The amazing thing about this election so far has been the consistency in the polling... Both sides have their convention, polls remain static. Another cop shooting and rioting break out... polls remain static. An increase and subsequent decrease in Covid19 cases.... polls remain static. Republican attacks on Biden... polls remain static. Biden selects Harris as VP candidate... polls remain static.
That's something I've been noting for years now, ever since Trump got into the public life as viable candidate.

From... about a month out from him getting the nomination to now no matter what's been going on, no matter how many crises pile up, no matter how many disasters he causes, no matter how the question is worded, no matter who's doing the polls Trump's popularity and questions directly related to it stays at "About 40 percent."

To the point that anytime in question is asked that boils down to "Do you like Trump" or is one step removed from same you can just go ahead and go assume the answer is going to be "About 40 percent."

Trump's a man who somehow got elected with a 61% unfavorability rating and that number hasn't really budged in any significant direction since.

It's... weird. And disconcerning since he won the last election with the same crappy level of approval. Hell the 46.1% of the popular vote he got in the 2016 general election might be the highest the ****** has ever actually "polled."
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Old 2nd September 2020, 12:49 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
But the thing is, Trump has been doing that his entire political life, ever since he started running in 2016. He did win the presidency back then, but lost the popular vote (and the dynamics of this election are very different than that one.)
Of course he has. He directs them to anyone who insults him in any way. These specific lies are directly aimed Biden and the election.

Quote:
I think somewhere along the line, the falsehoods probably quit having an impact on the undecided voter, and he's only making those claims for his own base.

I guess the question is, is Trump actually experiencing a rise in the polls?.....
I hope not.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 01:03 PM   #144
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Can anything change Americans’ minds about Donald Trump?
The eerie stability of Trump’s approval rating, explained.

VOX: https://www.vox.com/2020/9/2/2140936...nvention-polls

Quote:
On August 27, 2019, President Donald Trump held a 41.3 percent approval rating and a 54.2 percent disapproval rating, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker. During the 365 days that followed, Trump became the third president impeached by the House of Representatives; America assassinated Iranian general Qassem Soleimani; more than 200,000 Americans died from the disease caused by the novel coronavirus; the unemployment rate rose from 3.7 percent to 10.2 percent; the US banned incoming travel from Europe, China, and Brazil; an estimated 12 million people lost health insurance coverage; Trump pardoned Roger Stone, who was facing jail time for dirty tricks on the president’s behalf; and George Floyd’s murder sparked a nationwide movement protesting for racial justice — to which officials responded by tear-gassing demonstrators in Lafayette Park in Washington, DC, so Trump could pose for a photograph holding a Bible.

That is, of course, a bitterly incomplete list of a grimly consequential year in American history. But you’d never know it simply by following Trump’s poll numbers. On August 27, 2020 — one year later, and the day Trump used the White House as a backdrop for his convention speech — FiveThirtyEight had Trump at 42.2 percent approval and 54.3 percent disapproval. Everything had happened, and politically, nothing had mattered. Or, at the least, not much had changed.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 01:16 PM   #145
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I agree that Trump's popularity is about the same. People have made up their minds on who they will vote for and nothing will change their minds at this point. What will make the difference on whether he wins or loses this time is how many people actually vote. We need for people to get off their arses and VOTE for Biden, especially in those crucial swing states. We need for people to make sure they have active registration, especially in those states where some skulduggery has gone on.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 02:37 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
The protests and riots also help explain his rise in the polls. Look at all the paranoia, conspiracy theories, and general fear mongering when Obama won the presidency. Look at Trump's statements and policies. Look at the things the trumpkins themselves say and do. They're terrified of coloured people. Blacks protesting, and even some rioting, must be their worst nightmare come true.

The echo chambers do everything they can to amplify this effect, of course, but I think there would've been an effect regardlessly.
The rioters are certainly giving Trump his best chance of winning, and he is certainly going to milk it for all its worth.

All of Portland may not be on fire, but you do have protesters in Portland trying to set fire to an apartment building just because the mayor lives there. All the families who live there, let them burn I guess, because BLM??

Plus huge sections of Kenosha and Minneapolis that have been burned down.


Biden is still WAY out in front, and has a nearly unbeatable lead, but it really could take a few more major incidents for that to change. If the protesters in Portland had succeeded last night and burned all those families and the mayor alive, it very well could have been enough to change the election.

A disaster like that is not that far off either. With all of the mobs of violent people who have been allowed to burn large sections of cities, assault people with immunity, and have received political and media cover to carry out their illegal actions, it really is just a game of time and chance if they cross the line too far.

Especially since rogue DAs like Multomah County DA Mike Schmidt, and King County DA Dan Satterberg have publicly declared that they will not enforce the laws for protesters. Oregon Sherifs who refused to add their police forces to the quell the Portland riots until the protesters shield of immunity is released noted that:

“The same offenders are arrested night after night, only to be released by the court and not charged with a crime by the DA’s Office. The next night they are back at it, endangering the lives of law enforcement and the community all over again,”


Biden certainly is taking the threat seriously, and has put out an ad denouncing the rioters, plus blaming all of the violence on Trump. The problem with that is that most of the violence has occurred in areas where politicians have taken steps to purposefully allow it to happen.

I predicted that this violence will have somewhere between a 3%-8% hit for Biden depending on how bad it gets in the next few months.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 03:34 PM   #147
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These agitators who are responsible for the violence, looting, fires, etc. need to be arrested and prosecuted.
I don't care who they are or what their motives are, whether they're BLM, Antifa, or right-wing Trump supporters or whatever. This needs to stop.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 03:51 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
These agitators who are responsible for the violence, looting, fires, etc. need to be arrested and prosecuted.
I don't care who they are or what their motives are, whether they're BLM, Antifa, or right-wing Trump supporters or whatever. This needs to stop.
This could be where things become a problem for Biden against Trump.

Trump can just push the idea that this is violence in Democrat areas, and that Biden etc... are on the "defund the police" bandwagon.

Trump will keep painting himself as the law and order president who wants to bring back the rule of law through the National Guard and is just being hampered in his attempts by the usual political and bureaucratic red tape that he was elected to office to destroy.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 03:51 PM   #149
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
The rioters are certainly giving Trump his best chance of winning, and he is certainly going to milk it for all its worth.
Who gains from the violence? Republicans. Therefore, who has a greater incentive to perpetuate the violence?

It's not an ironclad formula, but "cui bono?" is a concept in criminology for a reason.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 04:01 PM   #150
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Can we get some reference for what "huge sections" of American cities burned out looks like?
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Old 2nd September 2020, 04:04 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Can we get some reference for what "huge sections" of American cities burned out looks like?
I have it on the highest authority that this is a picture of downtown Portland, taken just moments ago...

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Old 2nd September 2020, 04:29 PM   #152
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Can anything change Americans’ minds about Donald Trump?
The eerie stability of Trump’s approval rating, explained.

VOX: https://www.vox.com/2020/9/2/2140936...nvention-polls
That article raises an interesting question - why do so many people expect approval ratings to go up and down? Trump's approval never changes - and he never changes, so maybe that makes sense. Not cracking much over 40 percent would unnerve other presidents, but Trump just goes with the presumption that he can win with a minority so he keeps that minority happy.

I do think the 40 percent probably unnerves some of his allies in Congress.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 04:41 PM   #153
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Who gains from the violence? Republicans. Therefore, who has a greater incentive to perpetuate the violence?

It's not an ironclad formula, but "cui bono?" is a concept in criminology for a reason.
Yes, but it is also a favourite of conspiracy theorists. Who gains from the 9/11 Terror Attacks? Why, Dick Cheney and his shareholders of Halliburton, of course. Therefore they MUST have been behind it.

There are plenty of people who feel they benefit from riots. Some people just enjoy them or they feel it is a good way to get back at people they hate. Then of course, there is the attendant looting: Who benefits when someone smashes a brick through a window and makes off with brand new sneakers, clothes, games, and whatever else takes their fancy? Well, presumably the looters do, if they don't get caught by the police.

The rioters and looters are the cause of the rioting and the looting.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2020, 04:41 PM   #154
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Who gains from the violence? Republicans. Therefore, who has a greater incentive to perpetuate the violence?

It's not an ironclad formula, but "cui bono?" is a concept in criminology for a reason.
Sure, if the large groups of violent protesters sat down, and did a thorough cost/benefit analysis on what is the best strategy to achieve their long term goals, they would not be doing many of the actions they are undertaking.

The fact that they are not doing that is the reason why we are in our current situation.

Now obviously that creates an enormous incentive for a Right Wing extremist group to carry out an act of terrorism that they could blame on the protesters, but the protesters have shown that they are more than happy to do that kind of self inflected damages themselves, and the Right Wing extremists would be taking a major risk if their attack was not attributed to the protests.

The safest move for the Right Wing Extremists is to continue to allow the violent protesters to do their own damage, The best move for the larger group of peaceful protesters who actually do want to make serious and real social justice change, would be to stop the violent protesters, but they have largely shown that the can't/won't do that.


Now this is a double edged sword for Biden. By most polling, he has at least a 70% of winning the election according to 538, and it really is his race to lose. In all likelihood, he is going to be in Trump's position soon, and will have to be the one dealing with the problematic Governers, mayors, and DA offices who purposefully have set up the conditions for the violence to continue.

He will have to walk a fine line in dealing with them in order to win the election, but would also have to confront them to make major changes in their immunity for violent offenders if he wants the rioting to stop.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 04:53 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
Sure, if the large groups of violent protesters sat down, and did a thorough cost/benefit analysis on what is the best strategy to achieve their long term goals, they would not be doing many of the actions they are undertaking.

The fact that they are not doing that is the reason why we are in our current situation.

Now obviously that creates an enormous incentive for a Right Wing extremist group to carry out an act of terrorism that they could blame on the protesters, but the protesters have shown that they are more than happy to do that kind of self inflected damages themselves, and the Right Wing extremists would be taking a major risk if their attack was not attributed to the protests.

The safest move for the Right Wing Extremists is to continue to allow the violent protesters to do their own damage, The best move for the larger group of peaceful protesters who actually do want to make serious and real social justice change, would be to stop the violent protesters, but they have largely shown that the can't/won't do that.


Now this is a double edged sword for Biden. By most polling, he has at least a 70% of winning the election according to 538, and it really is his race to lose. In all likelihood, he is going to be in Trump's position soon, and will have to be the one dealing with the problematic Governers, mayors, and DA offices who purposefully have set up the conditions for the violence to continue.

He will have to walk a fine line in dealing with them in order to win the election, but would also have to confront them to make major changes in their immunity for violent offenders if he wants the rioting to stop.
Yeah, Biden hasn't and won't want to ally himself too closely with the BLM protests given their unpredictability and occasionally to turn violent.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2020, 04:58 PM   #156
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
These agitators who are responsible for the violence, looting, fires, etc. need to be arrested and prosecuted.
I don't care who they are or what their motives are, whether they're BLM, Antifa, or right-wing Trump supporters or whatever. This needs to stop.
This is probably not the right thread, but: Why is this attitude not shared by the powers that be in Portland? To the extent possible, IMO they should be booking people or at least issuing as many citations as possible. I know that sounds un-American, but charges can always be dropped later. Meanwhile I want to know, who are these people? Not in some metaphysical sense, just literally. Local? Out-of-towners? Eagle Scouts? Hardcore felons?

If they end up being sucked up by federal police, transparency takes a major hit because in my experience it's a lot harder to extract the information from the DOJ under the best of circumstances, even when their big boss is not trying to manufacture spin.

Maybe this is already happening and I'm just unaware.

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Old 2nd September 2020, 05:05 PM   #157
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Can we get some reference for what "huge sections" of American cities burned out looks like?
I am not sure why you would need someone to Google that for you, but sure.

I also don't want to get too far into a sidetrack. However, the peaceful protests for social justice change, and the violent riots that have been apart of a number of cities are likely the most important factor in determining the election behind COVID 19.

How those affect polling and the ads/messaging from the candidates on those issues should likely be the focus for this particular issue in terms of this thread.


You can see plenty of pictures of burned sections of cities if you look for it.

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/lo...0ecbd4945.html

https://www.twincities.com/2020/06/0...on-from-riots/


My best friend in college who grew up in Minneapolis told me that "there is not a gas station or grocery store left that is not burned down within five miles of where I used to live.

I responded "that's terrible, are they going to rebuild?"

"Naw man," he said. "They're all poor man."

"That's sad," I responded.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 05:05 PM   #158
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
This is probably not the right thread, but: Why is this attitude not shared by the powers that be in Portland? To the extent possible, IMO they should be booking people or at least issuing as many citations as possible. I know that sounds un-American, but charges can always be dropped later. Meanwhile I want to know, who are these people? Not in some metaphysical sense, just literally. Local? Out-of-towners? Eagle Scouts? Hardcore felons?

If they end up being sucked up by federal police, transparency takes a major hit because in my experience it's a lot harder to extract the information from the DOJ under the best of circumstances, even when their big boss is not trying to manufacture spin.

Maybe this is already happening and I'm just unaware.
Because "Abolish the police!"?
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2020, 05:10 PM   #159
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post

My best friend in college who grew up in Minneapolis told me that "there is not a gas station or grocery store left that is not burned down within five miles of where I used to live.

I responded "that's terrible, are they going to rebuild?"

"Naw man," he said. "They're all poor man."

"That's sad," I responded.
Don't **** where you eat, my friend!
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2020, 05:13 PM   #160
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Yeah, Biden hasn't and won't want to ally himself too closely with the BLM protests given their unpredictability and occasionally to turn violent.
That's the tricky thing for Biden. He has to be VERY aligned with BLM, but distance himself from the more radical and destructive ideas of the official BLM organization (but not their reasonable ideas).

He has to be VERY aligned with the protesters, but not with the ones who are violent, and careful around the ones who may not be violent, but support the ones who are violent.

He needs to be sympathetic to the hundreds of businesses who have moved out of cities or closed because of the violence, but very supportive sometimes of the people who drove them out.


It is an incredibly difficult dance to do, and he will need Kamala's eloquence and input on how to best do that.

So far he has done a pretty good job, but if he takes one massive misstep, it could definitely cost him the election.
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