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Tags 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

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Old 1st February 2019, 01:19 PM   #601
Venom
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think nominating someone who is pretty far to the left would be the worst thing Democrats could do. Nasturally those far to the left disagree.
The middle has been shifted to the right. Today's mainstream progressives are simply not "far left"; not mirror images of much of the right today.

And time after time when voters are faced with a Republican versus a Republican-lite who's trying to play "both sides", the real Republican gets the votes while the candidate who's pretending to be one often loses the respect of his base. I'm just asking that they maintain a strong liberal/leftist stance for once.

The worst thing the Democrats could do now is half-ass their policy proposals AGAIN to pander to Wall Street and moderate Republicans.
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Old 1st February 2019, 01:20 PM   #602
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Originally Posted by Axiom_Blade View Post
That's a big IF. I'd like to see some evidence that a centrist is what the US is looking for right now. If the last election was any indication, the answer appears to be a resounding NO. It seems to me that, more now than ever, centrist Democrats bore voters and keep them away from the polls.
The "right now" part is hard to figure. We'll see.

Historically though, this is 180 degrees opposite of reality. When a progressive can't make it past the primaries, that doesn't bode well for the general.
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Old 1st February 2019, 01:33 PM   #603
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Originally Posted by Axiom_Blade View Post
This can get confusing, because what passes for "centrism" in the US is actually "right-wing" in the rest of the world. Since we're talking about the US, though, I'm going to use the term "centrism" and "centrist" as it pertains to US politics.

Are US voters looking for a centrist candidate?

Let's look at the positions that are considered "far left" in the US right now.

How about Medicare for all? That's supported by 70% of the population.

Okay, what about free college tuition? That's supported by 66% of the population.

Those are the big two, but let's get into some of the more far-out, crazy left-wing territory, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's plans to tax the rich. Surely, voters are not willing to embrace...(gasp)...socialism?

In fact, 54% of the voters do support this!

Oops, wait, sorry...I'm wrong.

Actually, that's supported by 54% of Republicans (!) according to a poll by Fox News (!!!) When you poll Independents, it goes up to 71%, and Democrats support it by 85%!

So, what's the evidence that a centrist candidate will appeal to the broadest range of voters? It looks to me like the broadest range of voters is looking for somebody "far left" like Bernie Sanders.
Expanding social security, too:
https://socialsecurityworks.org/2016...cial-security/
Quote:
The polling found that expanding Social Security is supported by:

75 percent of men and 69 percent of women
69 percent of whites, 82 percent of African-Americans, and 79 percent of Latinos
70 percent of 18-29 year olds, 65 percent of 30-45 year olds, 76 percent of 46-65 year olds, and 70 percent of Americans over 65
87 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of Independents, and 51 percent of Republicans
The policies the supposed "centrists" try to paint as "far, fringe left" are actually popular even with Republicans.

It's a big part of why I think the so-called, self-identifying "centrists" are actually anything but actually moderate, and are actually pretty radical themselves, with their thirst for "entitlement reform", etc.
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Old 1st February 2019, 01:39 PM   #604
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
The worst thing the Democrats could do now is half-ass their policy proposals AGAIN to pander to Wall Street and moderate Republicans.
I don't think we have to worry about them halfassing the policy proposals. What they probably want to do is have Booker, Harris and Biden pander to the left, and hope it's effective enough to get them installed, with the actual policies pursued and passed once in office being more incremental shifting to the right in the name of "pragmatism".
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Old 1st February 2019, 01:39 PM   #605
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I honestly don't know whether they should go further to the left to energise the Democratic voters, or go towards the center to grab the moderates.
Go left
Compared to the GOP and Trump, everything is left. They will call you Communist even if you are right of Center, as long as you have a (D) behind your name.
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Old 1st February 2019, 01:44 PM   #606
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
But there is no broad range of voters anymore. Everybody is either hard left or hard right. Have'nt you been reading the last few posts?
*Laughs* Yeah it's almost as if the tribes that have been running American politics for the last 100 years have some sort of ulterior motive to promote the narrative that there is no compromise and only "them but more so" can save the day.
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Old 1st February 2019, 01:46 PM   #607
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Kamala's social media game is lit AF!

https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/sta...89634109132800

/yeah the guy on the bench in the background is passed out or maybe dead.
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Old 1st February 2019, 01:50 PM   #608
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Expanding social security, too:
https://socialsecurityworks.org/2016...cial-security/


The policies the supposed "centrists" try to paint as "far, fringe left" are actually popular even with Republicans.

It's a big part of why I think the so-called, self-identifying "centrists" are actually anything but actually moderate, and are actually pretty radical themselves, with their thirst for "entitlement reform", etc.
Many thanks to both you and Axiom_Blade for bringing some data to the discussion.

That it matches my own preconceived notions makes me feel all warm and fuzzy. But I'm perfectly willing to review some contrary data, even if it would make me feel cold and soulless.
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Old 1st February 2019, 01:53 PM   #609
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Kamala's social media game is lit AF!

https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/sta...89634109132800

/yeah the guy on the bench in the background is passed out or maybe dead.
Have you never slept on a bench? Man, I thought I had some white privilege issues . . .
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Old 1st February 2019, 02:01 PM   #610
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
*Laughs* Yeah it's almost as if the tribes that have been running American politics for the last 100 years have some sort of ulterior motive to promote the narrative that there is no compromise and only "them but more so" can save the day.
Obama tried, and failed. Then tried, then failed some more...

It's almost as if trying the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is not worth the risk anymore.
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Old 1st February 2019, 02:09 PM   #611
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Have you never slept on a bench? Man, I thought I had some white privilege issues . . .
Not only have I never passed out on a bench, I have never been featured in campaign propaganda for the sixth place finisher at the Iowa caucuses like this fellow.
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Old 1st February 2019, 02:23 PM   #612
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Not only have I never passed out on a bench, I have never been featured in campaign propaganda for the sixth place finisher at the Iowa caucuses like this fellow.
I've never passed out on a bench either.* But I have slept on plenty. Especially on a cool sunny day. Feels great to have a nice breeze and soak up some sun while catching some winks on the lunch break. Especially when working some ****** job like document review in a closed off file room that makes you question your career choices.

I'd look a lot like that photo, even with the soda on the ground next to me and the nice dress shoes.

I've also done it on vacation while waiting for my wife and kids to do something I'm not that in to, but then I'd be wearing shorts or jeans.

Thinking that benches are just for sitting or being passed out on is just ****** up.



*Not that I recall, but if I were to do a survey of friends from my heavy drinking years they may correct me on this.
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Old 1st February 2019, 02:32 PM   #613
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Some of the Demoractic contenders are going to have their fifteen minutes of Warholian fame, then go back to obscurity except for people in their own states and districts. Twas ever thus.
Everytime it looks like a party has a excellent chance of an election year being "it's year" you get a lot of candidates coming out of the woodwork who quickly go back there. That goes for both parties.
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Old 1st February 2019, 03:06 PM   #614
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
I've never passed out on a bench either.* But I have slept on plenty. Especially on a cool sunny day. Feels great to have a nice breeze and soak up some sun while catching some winks on the lunch break. Especially when working some ****** job like document review in a closed off file room that makes you question your career choices.

I'd look a lot like that photo, even with the soda on the ground next to me and the nice dress shoes.

I've also done it on vacation while waiting for my wife and kids to do something I'm not that in to, but then I'd be wearing shorts or jeans.

Thinking that benches are just for sitting or being passed out on is just ****** up.

*Not that I recall, but if I were to do a survey of friends from my heavy drinking years they may correct me on this.
You slept on bus stop benches right next to the side of a busy street?

Huh, that seems pretty selfish
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Old 1st February 2019, 03:19 PM   #615
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
But I'm perfectly willing to review some contrary data, even if it would make me feel cold and soulless.
Me, too, but they never bring any contrary data. Almost as if they don't have any because it doesn't exist.

At this point, they usually just divert into talking about how us catching up with the rest of the developed world is asking for unicorns and rainbows since we're a "less homogeneous society" .
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Old 1st February 2019, 03:25 PM   #616
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Okay so how is this supposed to be working exactly?

If you aren't "Left" enough people will vote for the "Right?" That if someone isn't 100% percent as far Left as you want them to be but only... like 60 or 80% they'll vote for someone who's 60 or 80 or 100% fully on the Right or not vote at all just... why? To spite them?

These all just seems like a narrative to justify cause purity.
Voter indifference is researched subject in voting theory.

Let's put the spectrum as 0 for liberal and 1 for conservative.

If I'm at 0.1, and the two candidates are 0.5 and 0.55, the gap between my position and each of the candidates, 0.4 and 0.45, is similar enough that I will have no significant preference.

Alternatively, if I'm at 0.5 and the two candidates are 0.45 and 0.55, the gap between my position and each of the candidates, 0.05, is the same so I will have no significant preference.

The ideological population distribution, where the other party chooses to position, and other factors will determine where the a party should position itself for a winning strategy.
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Old 2nd February 2019, 01:12 AM   #617
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Senator Corey Booker from New Jersey announced today.

I'll try to do a modest job of organizing the at least moderately credible candidates here; sorry Jeff Boss. Feel free to point out corrections/additions.

In Or At Least Exploring (By Current or Highest Office Held):

Senators:
Corey Booker
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
Elizabeth Warren

US Representatives:
John Delaney
Tulsi Gabbard

Cabinet Members:
Julian Castro

Mayors:
Pete Buttegieg

Unannounced But Considered Likely:

Vice Presidents:
Joe Biden

Senators:
Sherrod Brown
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders

US Representatives:
Beto O'Rourke

Mayors:
Michael Bloomberg
Bill De Blasio

I thought about putting even more speculative candidates and the "I'm out" crowd in here, but it's just too much.
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Old 2nd February 2019, 06:38 AM   #618
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Irony is those Democratic voters who Hillary did not motivated are going to be motivated in 2020...by Trump.
I think nominating someone who is pretty far to the left would be the worst thing Democrats could do. Nasturally those far to the left disagree.
I'm unable to distinguish left from far-left. Has a far-left Dem declared for 2020? If so, who? If not, name a couple of far-left Dems so I can see what the beast looks like.
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Old 2nd February 2019, 02:15 PM   #619
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
I'm unable to distinguish left from far-left. Has a far-left Dem declared for 2020? If so, who? If not, name a couple of far-left Dems so I can see what the beast looks like.
Not a Democrat but I imagine what a "far left" Dem would look like.

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Old 2nd February 2019, 03:08 PM   #620
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Not a Democrat but I imagine what a "far left" Dem would look like.

She's not any different from Sanders when it comes to policy proposals.

Basically everyone on the left has the same policy ideas.
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Old 2nd February 2019, 04:21 PM   #621
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Well, we can count Governor Northiem out as a potential presedential candidate.
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Old 3rd February 2019, 07:55 AM   #622
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I honestly don't know whether they should go further to the left to energise the Democratic voters, or go towards the center to grab the moderates.
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Go toward the center. Trump has done the job of energizing the Dems who stayed in home in 2016 for them.......
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Go left
Compared to the GOP and Trump, everything is left. They will call you Communist even if you are right of Center, as long as you have a (D) behind your name.
Damn! I still don't know!
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Old 3rd February 2019, 08:14 AM   #623
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Damn! I still don't know!
It's complicated. Suppose one is a progressive who is most in alignment with Warren.

Is Warren more likely to win the general than, say Biden? Unlikely.

Is the benefit of Warren over Biden worth the risk of losing the general? I say hell no, but that's just me.

I don't think the moderate/progressive spectrum is the best way to look at this to begin with, in terms of electability. Superficialities such as looks and a confident vibe are probably more important.

Ideally, I want a stealth progressive with looks/vibe.
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Old 3rd February 2019, 11:38 AM   #624
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Ideally, I want a stealth progressive with looks/vibe.
Well, at least you're honest about wanting a dishonest nominee.
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Old 3rd February 2019, 01:07 PM   #625
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Is Warren more likely to win the general than, say Biden? Unlikely.
I just want to remind everyone once again that Sanders did a lot better than Clinton in every hypothetical matchup against Trump during the primaries. They always showed her either losing to Trump, or in a dead tie with him, and Sanders beating him.

See:http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/0...nders-vs-Trump

Quote:
Clinton loses to Trump, 43 percent to 39 percent, while Sanders wins a hypothetical matchup, 43 percent to 41 percent.
Quote:
Clinton in a dead heat with Trump in Pennsylvania, leading him by just one point, 43 percent to 42 percent. Sanders, meanwhile, leads the billionaire 47 percent to 41 percent.
Quote:
The snapshot comes the same day a NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll found that while Clinton beats Trump in the general election, 49 percent to 44 percent, Sanders wipes the floor with him, winning 53 percent to 40 percent.
I genuinely believe Warren would/will do better than Biden against Trump. Hell, Sanders might do better than either of them, still, to be completely honest. Anti-establishment independents really like him.
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Old 3rd February 2019, 03:04 PM   #626
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
I just want to remind everyone once again that Sanders did a lot better than Clinton in every hypothetical matchup against Trump during the primaries. They always showed her either losing to Trump, or in a dead tie with him, and Sanders beating him.

See:http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/0...nders-vs-Trump

I genuinely believe Warren would/will do better than Biden against Trump. Hell, Sanders might do better than either of them, still, to be completely honest. Anti-establishment independents really like him.
Who's to say? Your guess is probably as good as any one's at this point. I think almost anyone will beat Trump in the next election. That is as long as they don't blow it.
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Old 3rd February 2019, 04:41 PM   #627
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I don't believe you.

Fine. And since you don't believe me for no reason I will choose to not believe you don't believe for no reason.


Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Um... yes you are. You just told us you are:



That's a bad habit, Travis. Stop it already.

That is not going searching for anything. That is just reading the comments that come up in my feed. Which is just due diligence because it behooves me to know what is being commonly thrown around.


Originally Posted by Axiom_Blade View Post
This can get confusing, because what passes for "centrism" in the US is actually "right-wing" in the rest of the world. Since we're talking about the US, though, I'm going to use the term "centrism" and "centrist" as it pertains to US politics.

Are US voters looking for a centrist candidate?

Let's look at the positions that are considered "far left" in the US right now.

How about Medicare for all? That's supported by 70% of the population.

Okay, what about free college tuition? That's supported by 66% of the population.

Those are the big two, but let's get into some of the more far-out, crazy left-wing territory, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's plans to tax the rich. Surely, voters are not willing to embrace...(gasp)...socialism?

In fact, 54% of the voters do support this!

Oops, wait, sorry...I'm wrong.

Actually, that's supported by 54% of Republicans (!) according to a poll by Fox News (!!!) When you poll Independents, it goes up to 71%, and Democrats support it by 85%!

So, what's the evidence that a centrist candidate will appeal to the broadest range of voters? It looks to me like the broadest range of voters is looking for somebody "far left" like Bernie Sanders.

Yeah polls and social media enthusiasm would indicate a winning candidate will embrace universal health care, federally funded university, free day care, a green new deal and a giant increase in taxes on the IMAX yacht class.


Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Not only have I never passed out on a bench, I have never been featured in campaign propaganda for the sixth place finisher at the Iowa caucuses like this fellow.

You talking about the awesome woman currently leading the Iowa polls among all declared candidates?
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Old 3rd February 2019, 04:51 PM   #628
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After years & years of losing & losing & losing & losing with the "chase the Lost Tribe Of The Middle" strategy, it's well past time for proponents of the known losing method to start coming up with some evidence somewhere for some reason to keep taking the known losing method seriously. The claim that supporting the most popular candidates with the known most popular positions would "scare voters away" just doesn't cut it.
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Old 3rd February 2019, 05:19 PM   #629
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In the end we'll end up with someone that I will consider pretty centrist who won't enact platforms I would like to see. Things like an earnings cap, declaring ICE a criminal organization, instituting a minimum wage that is tracked to housing costs in the area so that anyone who works 40 hours a week only has to spend at most 35% of their income for median rent. Mandating that all publicly traded companies have to have a labor representative on the board. Oh and mandating that all publicly traded companies have to unionize.
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Old 3rd February 2019, 06:13 PM   #630
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Originally Posted by Travis View Post
Fine. And since you don't believe me for no reason I will choose to not believe you don't believe for no reason.
It's interesting that you use a premise as if it's a fact and then conclude from it, but you just made it up.

I have a reason. Zig touched on it, but you constantly bring up the worst things you see on the internet in order to fuel your outrage. You could, after several attempts by members here to help you on this, choose to not read these extreme opinions and events but you continuously do. This means you're seeking them out, one way or another, despite your denial.

Quote:
That is not going searching for anything. That is just reading the comments that come up in my feed.
Unsubscribe to these accounts immediately. They bring you nothing but pain.

But you won't, because you _want_ to read them. You seek them out.
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Old 3rd February 2019, 07:09 PM   #631
kellyb
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Originally Posted by Travis View Post
In the end we'll end up with someone that I will consider pretty centrist who won't enact platforms I would like to see. Things like an earnings cap, declaring ICE a criminal organization, instituting a minimum wage that is tracked to housing costs in the area so that anyone who works 40 hours a week only has to spend at most 35% of their income for median rent. Mandating that all publicly traded companies have to have a labor representative on the board. Oh and mandating that all publicly traded companies have to unionize.
If I can take a second to market to you a re-thinking of that highlighted part:

I think it's better to tax property to just keep housing costs low.

Wall Street invests in bidding up the prices of real estate in the low tax and no tax areas. They'd love for minimum wage hikes that benefit them and them alone at the end of the day to fund that!

Not to say that minimum wage shouldn't be increased, but it shouldn't be done in away where it'll all just get hoovered up by the financial sector.
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Old 3rd February 2019, 07:09 PM   #632
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Originally Posted by Travis View Post
That is not going searching for anything. That is just reading the comments that come up in my feed. Which is just due diligence because it behooves me to know what is being commonly thrown around.
Then turn off your damn feed. There are far, far better ways to stay informed than Twitter, which gives you a decidedly wrong view of "what being commonly thrown around."

ETA: Already brilliantly stated by Belz...

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Old 3rd February 2019, 07:35 PM   #633
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
It's interesting that you use a premise as if it's a fact and then conclude from it, but you just made it up.

I have a reason. Zig touched on it, but you constantly bring up the worst things you see on the internet in order to fuel your outrage. You could, after several attempts by members here to help you on this, choose to not read these extreme opinions and events but you continuously do. This means you're seeking them out, one way or another, despite your denial.



Unsubscribe to these accounts immediately. They bring you nothing but pain.

But you won't, because you _want_ to read them. You seek them out.

You do realize people under 25 spend all their time on social media?


This is like someone in 1960 thinking it matters not what a politician looks like on TV because it is a fad for the young people. Radio interviews are what really matter.
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Old 3rd February 2019, 08:53 PM   #634
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Wrong thread!

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Old 3rd February 2019, 10:57 PM   #635
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Originally Posted by Travis View Post
You do realize people under 25 spend all their time on social media?


This is like someone in 1960 thinking it matters not what a politician looks like on TV because it is a fad for the young people. Radio interviews are what really matter.


And you know what? They were right. We should spend more time actually listening to the candidates and their platforms than worrying about minutiae like what they look like, what other people have to say about them, mudslinging, Russian bots, etc.


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Old 3rd February 2019, 11:20 PM   #636
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
And you know what? They were right. We should spend more time actually listening to the candidates and their platforms than worrying about minutiae like what they look like, what other people have to say about them, mudslinging, Russian bots, etc.


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I think Travis' point is perception is reality. Many voters don't take the time to look at all of that, particularly the progressives who want Trump gone but are often bogged down by mischaracterizations of leading Democratic candidates in social media.
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Old 4th February 2019, 12:37 AM   #637
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
I think Travis' point is perception is reality. Many voters don't take the time to look at all of that, particularly the progressives who want Trump gone but are often bogged down by mischaracterizations of leading Democratic candidates in social media.
Yeah.

Honestly, I'm fine with his periodic...debriefings on what the "youtube comments section" types are currently groupthinking. It might not matter much, but it might be worth knowing, and hey, he delves into that netherworld so we don't have to!

eta: tho really, Travis, I do wish you'd "level up" on your reporting, because the Bernie Bros really aren't saying Harris "kept slaves".
Some "Socialist Party" SJW types might be arguing that she fed the prison industrial complex, which does involve slavery in the most strict legal sense, for her own benefit, though.
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Old 4th February 2019, 05:47 AM   #638
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Originally Posted by Travis View Post
This is like someone in 1960 thinking it matters not what a politician looks like on TV because it is a fad for the young people. Radio interviews are what really matter.
Travis do you think what a politician looks like on TV actually matters?

In other worlds do you think that shift to a more looks focused politician climate was a good thing?
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Old 4th February 2019, 05:52 AM   #639
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Originally Posted by Travis View Post
You do realize people under 25 spend all their time on social media?
"Everybody else does it" is a terrible argument. No, not everyone under 25 does this, and neither you nor anyone needs to. There's really little to be gained by doing it, and in your case it's more harmful than anything else.
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Old 4th February 2019, 05:55 AM   #640
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And again there's a fundamental difference between "Use a new form of media to be better informed" and "Use the collective reflexive anonymous Id of all humanity to always have an on call example ready to justify my rage."
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