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Tags 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

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Old 7th March 2019, 12:45 PM   #921
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Andrew Yang is roughly 18,000 donors away from making the debate stage.

Quote:
Andrew Yang has been a Democratic presidential candidate for well over a year. But chances are, you’ve never heard of him. He’s not a lawmaker. He has just over 90,000 Twitter followers. As of Dec. 31, 2018, his campaign committee had $38,730.78 cash on hand. He’s spent a grand total of $33,000 on Facebook ads. And has not run a single TV ad.

And yet, the self-proclaimed “entrepreneur who understands the economy” has somehow managed to get more than 47,000 individual donors to his campaign as of Wednesday night. It’s a figure that’s caught the attention of Democrats on other campaigns. But, more importantly, it’s one that places Yang close to a critical threshold. If that number rises to 65,000 over the next two months, he will qualify to participate in the first primary debate.

He's already met one threshold—that his campaign have a minimum of 200 donors per state in at least 20 states. And his team says he’s a lock to clear the other.

“100 percent. Hell will have to freeze over at this rate for us not to,” said Zach Graumann, Yang’s campaign manager. “We are averaging 1,500 donors a day. Not averaging, that is our baseline. And people don’t even know who he is yet.”
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Old 7th March 2019, 01:43 PM   #922
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Quote:
the self-proclaimed “entrepreneur who understands the economy”
Really? We really need to explain this again? Is the presidency the new toy for rich people?
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Old 7th March 2019, 03:27 PM   #923
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I live the way some here like to think that the moderate centrist vote does not exist.
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Old 7th March 2019, 04:51 PM   #924
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I live the way some here like to think that the moderate centrist vote does not exist.
You must love it, since you don't talk them about it, or argue for different viewpoint, or anything like that.
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Old 7th March 2019, 05:31 PM   #925
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#AnybodyButTrump!
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Old 7th March 2019, 06:10 PM   #926
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I live the way some here like to think that the moderate centrist vote does not exist.
Quite funny - I suggested at a different forum several days ago that the Dems need to look for a centrist who can appeal to Democratic voters as well as the many non-Trump moderate Republicans. That latter group aren't going to vote for a socialist, no matter how old/young/pretty they are.

At the moment, there doesn't appear to be anyone in that centrist space, which should be an indictment on the Democratic Party for spending two years crying about the election and not spending a second on finding the person to lead them away from the far left.

If you want cohesion, look to the middle, not the fringes. That's where about 80% of your voters live.
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Old 7th March 2019, 06:53 PM   #927
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Advice with a consistent track record of losing is advice on how to lose.
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Old 7th March 2019, 06:59 PM   #928
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
My answer is you don't know much about US Politics if you think there is some massive hidden Left wing vote out there.
And yet, Hillary, who is the perfect centrist, lost against a literal circus clown.

Good luck with running another centrist against Trump in 2020. I'm sure that will work out just great.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:03 PM   #929
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Advice with a consistent track record of losing is advice on how to lose.
Indeed.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:20 PM   #930
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
At the moment, there doesn't appear to be anyone in that centrist space, which should be an indictment on the Democratic Party for spending two years crying about the election and not spending a second on finding the person to lead them away from the far left.

If you want cohesion, look to the middle, not the fringes. That's where about 80% of your voters live.
Quite funny. Most of the experienced Democrats running right now are arguably centrist. If strong support for social justice issues and incremental progress fiscally makes you "far left" of center, that says more about the people hugging the right than it does the leftists. Well the center has been shifted rightwards anyways so in that respect most of the Dems aren't centrist. Hardly makes them far left.

In recent years the Democrats have always been more willing to compromise than the Republicans. No time for that nonsense anymore.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:47 PM   #931
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[quote=Venom;12625550]Quite funny. Most of the experienced Democrats running right now are arguably centrist.

Bernie Sanders self-describes as a democratic socialist, which is not centrist.

Joe Biden is a joke candidate.

That's your top two.

Who's next?

Kamala Harris? I think her record says she'd be a hard sell as a centrist, and even worse, she's a woman. If the Dems haven't learnt that USA isn't ready for a female president yet, they'll learn it again next year if they pick one. I personally think she's probably the best candidate of the lot, but I don't think she can win.

If you can't see the entrenched misogyny in the US electorate, maybe RCP can help you - Trump beats Harris by a larger or similar margin to Booker, who has zero name recognition but is a bloke.

Booker himself is the furthest of all from the centre:

Originally Posted by Corey Booker
...there's nothing in that realm of progressive politics where you won't find me.
After that, the field is pretty thin on anything.

Nobody else hits 5%, other than the odd Beto O'Rourke showing, and I don't think he's given much impression of trying to occupy the middle ground.

Originally Posted by Venom View Post
If strong support for social justice issues and incremental progress fiscally makes you "far left" of center, that says more about the people hugging the right than it does the leftists.
I agree entirely, but it's a time for pragmatism, and a pragmatic approach says you need to follow the centre to the right a bit rather than trying to drag it left. Get the power, own both houses, then move the balance as you can. Much like Trump's done with his emergency powers and stacking the courts.

The Dems need to take a multi-election approach if you ever want to return USA to world prominence.
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Old 8th March 2019, 05:36 AM   #932
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Originally Posted by Lambchops View Post
And yet, Hillary, who is the perfect centrist, lost against a literal circus clown.

Good luck with running another centrist against Trump in 2020. I'm sure that will work out just great.
2016 was an aberration due to extraordinary events. When you draw this conclusion from 2016, you're a prisoner of the moment.
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Old 8th March 2019, 05:46 AM   #933
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
There was a great interview he did with Sam Harris. I hope he makes it to the debates, though I doubt the structure or the questions that will be asked will allow him to adequately explain his views.

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I AGREE
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Old 8th March 2019, 06:11 AM   #934
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
If you can't see the entrenched misogyny in the US electorate, maybe RCP can help you - Trump beats Harris by a larger or similar margin to Booker, who has zero name recognition but is a bloke.
Sorry, how's that misogyny?
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Old 8th March 2019, 07:09 AM   #935
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
13000 to go now.

Of course, as mentioned, there is the problem that the debates won't give him much time to make his case.
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Old 8th March 2019, 07:14 AM   #936
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Originally Posted by Lambchops View Post
And yet, Hillary, who is the perfect centrist, lost against a literal circus clown.
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Old 8th March 2019, 07:51 AM   #937
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Centrist vs progressive is too narrow of a guide to winnability. Old, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational candidates tend to fare poorly. Working backwards, skipping incumbents...

2016: Clinton: 69, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational. Loses

2008: Obama: 47, outsider, telegenic, inspirational: Wins

2004: Kerry: 61, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational: Loses

2000: Gore: 52, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational: Loses (via electoral college)

1992: Clinton: 46, outsider, telegenic, non-inspirational: Wins

1988: Dukakis: 55, outsider, non-telegenic, hyper non-inspirational: Loses

1984: Mondale: 56, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational: Loses

1976: Carter: 52, outsider, non-telegenic, non-inspirational: Wins (in the wake of Watergate)

This is why I think that Biden, Sanders, and Warren aren't the best bets to defeat Trump.

Biden: Ancient, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational
Sanders: Ancient, outsider, non-telegenic, inspirational
Warren: Ancient, establishment(?), non-telegenic, ?
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Old 8th March 2019, 07:58 AM   #938
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I live the way some here like to think that the moderate centrist vote does not exist.
Okay, let's say it exists (nobody disputes this, by the way, but whatever).

Now, let's say that the Democratic candidate is, let's say Bernie Sanders. He's up against Donald Trump, obviously.

Let's ask the moderate centrist voter, "Who are you going to vote for?"

What do they answer? That there is no moderate centrist candidate to vote for so they stay home and aren't fussed which one wins?
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 8th March 2019, 08:14 AM   #939
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Okay, let's say it exists (nobody disputes this, by the way, but whatever).

Now, let's say that the Democratic candidate is, let's say Bernie Sanders. He's up against Donald Trump, obviously.

Let's ask the moderate centrist voter, "Who are you going to vote for?"

What do they answer? That there is no moderate centrist candidate to vote for so they stay home and aren't fussed which one wins?
If it's Trump vs Sanders I think we should give serious thought to undoing the American Revolution and seeing if Britain will take us back. Sure, it's embarrassing going back to an ex, but sometimes it's for the best. Also, ex-sex is excellent. And then they'll be less fussed about leaving the EU. Win-win, old chap, guvnor, blimey. Seamless merger!
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Old 8th March 2019, 08:16 AM   #940
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Okay, let's say it exists (nobody disputes this, by the way, but whatever).

Now, let's say that the Democratic candidate is, let's say Bernie Sanders. He's up against Donald Trump, obviously.

Let's ask the moderate centrist voter, "Who are you going to vote for?"

What do they answer? That there is no moderate centrist candidate to vote for so they stay home and aren't fussed which one wins?
I believe you've discovered Howard Schultz's constituency.
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Old 8th March 2019, 08:27 AM   #941
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Sacrificing principles to win elections is what "moderate Republicans" do.
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Old 8th March 2019, 11:58 AM   #942
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
2016 was an aberration due to extraordinary events. When you draw this conclusion from 2016, you're a prisoner of the moment.
Or are viewing the world through ideological blinders:They really want to believe there is a huge pool of Hard Left voters out there who are just waiting for the right candidate.
To the treat the centrist-moderate voters with contempt...which is what a number of people are doing..is a sure way for the Democrats to not just reelect Trump, but lose the House in the process.
Existing in a left wing bubble distorts reality just as much as living in a right wing bubble.
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Old 8th March 2019, 12:00 PM   #943
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Okay, let's say it exists (nobody disputes this, by the way, but whatever).

Now, let's say that the Democratic candidate is, let's say Bernie Sanders. He's up against Donald Trump, obviously.

Let's ask the moderate centrist voter, "Who are you going to vote for?"

What do they answer? That there is no moderate centrist candidate to vote for so they stay home and aren't fussed which one wins?
Yes,pretty much. Or vote for a centrist independent candidate..which, if Sanders get the nomination, there will be one.
If Sanders is nominated, Trump will win reelection. I am wiling to bet on this.
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Old 8th March 2019, 12:13 PM   #944
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Sherrod Brown is out, while Joe Biden continues his Hamlet imitation. And Beto O'Rourke is reaching out to potential staffers in New Hampshire.

In Or At Least Exploring (By Current or Highest Office Held):

Governors:
Jay Inslee
John Hickenlooper

Senators:
Corey Booker
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren

US Representatives:
John Delaney
Tulsi Gabbard

Cabinet Members:
Julian Castro

Mayors:
Pete Buttegieg

Unannounced But Considered Likely:

Vice Presidents:
Joe Biden

Senators:
None.

US Representatives:
Beto O'Rourke
Eric Swallwell

Mayors:
Bill De Blasio
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Old 8th March 2019, 12:28 PM   #945
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Centrist vs progressive is too narrow of a guide to winnability. Old, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational candidates tend to fare poorly. Working backwards, skipping incumbents...

2016: Clinton: 69, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational. Loses

2008: Obama: 47, outsider, telegenic, inspirational: Wins

2004: Kerry: 61, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational: Loses

2000: Gore: 52, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational: Loses (via electoral college)

1992: Clinton: 46, outsider, telegenic, non-inspirational: Wins

1988: Dukakis: 55, outsider, non-telegenic, hyper non-inspirational: Loses

1984: Mondale: 56, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational: Loses

1976: Carter: 52, outsider, non-telegenic, non-inspirational: Wins (in the wake of Watergate)

This is why I think that Biden, Sanders, and Warren aren't the best bets to defeat Trump.

Biden: Ancient, establishment, non-telegenic, non-inspirational
Sanders: Ancient, outsider, non-telegenic, inspirational
Warren: Ancient, establishment(?), non-telegenic, ?
I think in lieu of "telegenic" you might find that "charismatic" works better. Obama and Bill Clinton both had charisma oozing from their pores. Hillary, Kerry, Gore, Dukakis and Mondale are definite also-rans in the charm department. This is why Beto might work.
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Old 8th March 2019, 01:47 PM   #946
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Yes,pretty much. Or vote for a centrist independent candidate..which, if Sanders get the nomination, there will be one.
If Sanders is nominated, Trump will win reelection. I am wiling to bet on this.
They wouldn’t just hold their nose and vote for Sanders in order to get Trump out?

That seems odd given how much scorn is heaped on those who wouldn’t vote for Hillary Clinton. “What do you want? Some ideological purist like Jill Stein?”
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Old 8th March 2019, 05:07 PM   #947
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Yes,pretty much. Or vote for a centrist independent candidate..which, if Sanders get the nomination, there will be one.
If Sanders is nominated, Trump will win reelection. I am wiling to bet on this.
I'll take that bet. One month avatar bet agreeable to you?
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Old 8th March 2019, 05:53 PM   #948
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Or are viewing the world through ideological blinders:They really want to believe there is a huge pool of Hard Left voters out there who are just waiting for the right candidate.
To the treat the centrist-moderate voters with contempt...which is what a number of people are doing..is a sure way for the Democrats to not just reelect Trump, but lose the House in the process.
Existing in a left wing bubble distorts reality just as much as living in a right wing bubble.
I do find myself smiling that I agree entirely with your last several posts on this subject.

It proves how successful Trump has been at polarising people, because what you're saying is blindingly obvious, yet the DNC & most people on the left seem unable to grasp it.
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Old 8th March 2019, 07:10 PM   #949
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
what you're saying is blindingly obvious
Then perhaps you can provide the obvious evidence or reasoning for it, because (s)he has not; (s)he's simply repeated it a lot.

You're advocating the same approach that the Democrats were using while they lost not just the latest Presidential election but also over a thousand Federal and state seats during the last Democrat Presidency, and naysaying the shift that was associated with the blue wave in the last set of elections, in which the clear pattern was that those Democrats who lost were the ones who acted the closest to Republicans and those who won were the ones who put the most distance between themselves and Republicans. What's going to make the next election suddenly come out exactly the opposite from how things have clearly actually worked in the last several? We've asked several times why it will, and all we keep getting is more & more unsupported proclamations that it will. So far nobody's even pretended to have some strangely secret real basis for it, just fear-mongering.

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
yet the DNC & most people on the left seem unable to grasp it.
The people running the party are still the ones who've been doing things your way all along and seem to intend to continue.

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Old 8th March 2019, 09:42 PM   #950
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
2016 was an aberration due to extraordinary events. When you draw this conclusion from 2016, you're a prisoner of the moment.
Like I said, good luck.
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Old 9th March 2019, 01:17 AM   #951
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Then perhaps you can provide the obvious evidence or reasoning for it, because (s)he has not; (s)he's simply repeated it a lot.

You're advocating the same approach that the Democrats were using while they lost not just the latest Presidential election but also over a thousand Federal and state seats during the last Democrat Presidency, and naysaying the shift that was associated with the blue wave in the last set of elections, in which the clear pattern was that those Democrats who lost were the ones who acted the closest to Republicans and those who won were the ones who put the most distance between themselves and Republicans.
In the primaries, perhaps, and even there, only in ultra-lib districts. Keep in mind that AOC, Omar and Tlaib all won in seats that were already safe Democrat (indeed, the latter two ran unopposed in the general election). That is to say, they did not help the Democrats win control of the House of Representatives by flipping a seat.

Overall, the Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank, found that Progressive Democrats did somewhat worse than establishment Democrats in non-incumbent races (i.e., in districts with a Republican congressman). The establishment types were 140-260 in the primaries (keep in mind, this includes all the Democratic candidates in those primaries), while the Progressives were 101-278.
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Old 9th March 2019, 01:18 AM   #952
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Originally Posted by Lambchops View Post
And yet, Hillary, who is the perfect centrist, lost against a literal circus clown.

Good luck with running another centrist against Trump in 2020. I'm sure that will work out just great.
She won by 3 million votes. The issue is not centrist or not, it's campaign strategy and messaging.
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Old 9th March 2019, 01:24 AM   #953
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I do find myself smiling that I agree entirely with your last several posts on this subject.

It proves how successful Trump has been at polarising people, because what you're saying is blindingly obvious, yet the DNC & most people on the left seem unable to grasp it.
*sigh*

The DNC and people ostensibly on the left seem to not have grasped that pretending to be Republicans or centrists for the better part of a decade (you could argue for a few decades) is perhaps not a great idea after all.

Republicans have been pushing their usual talking points. They already called Obama a socialist. They've already doubled down on opposing anything even slightly leftist. We might as well try being liberals for once.
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Old 9th March 2019, 01:31 AM   #954
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The competition to out-progressive everybody else is on:

Warren proposes breaking up big tech--Apple, Amazon and Facebook.

John Hickenlooper dodged around the question of whether he was a capitalist:

Quote:
He then asked the governor if he considered himself a “proud capitalist,” and Hickenlooper laughed before answering.

“Oh I don’t know, you know the labels, I’m not sure any of them fit,” the 2020 presidential hopeful answered. “I do believe that that ability to look at, you know, climate change and figure out how are we really going to create a sense of urgency, and get people together.”
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Old 9th March 2019, 02:17 AM   #955
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And Cory Booker came across quite well on Colbert tonight with his justice system reform platform.
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Old 9th March 2019, 03:05 AM   #956
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
She won by 3 million votes. The issue is not centrist or not, it's campaign strategy and messaging.
Overall vote totals were up 7 million from the last presidential election. Republicans gained 2 million compared to 2012, independents gained 5 million, and Clinton gained basically nothing.
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Old 9th March 2019, 05:23 AM   #957
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And Cory Booker came across quite well on Colbert tonight with his justice system reform platform.
agreed.
He did very well.
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Old 9th March 2019, 05:30 AM   #958
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Progressive Democrats did somewhat worse than establishment Democrats in non-incumbent races (i.e., in districts with a Republican congressman). The establishment types were 140-260 in the primaries (keep in mind, this includes all the Democratic candidates in those primaries), while the Progressives were 101-278.
That source not only has problems with how it categorizes candidates (like apparently taking the "Progressive" Caucus's word for it on its name) but also is referring to primaries, not the actual elections, so you're trying to use relatively small closed events with no non-Democrats present as an indicator of how those candidates would do with the non-Democrats in the general public. Primaries include cases where a corporatist and a progressive weren't in competition against each other, and cases where either one might compete against others of his/her own category. And the article itself explains the "establishment" candidates' success not in terms of the real popularity of their issue positions but in terms of Party support and name recognition from previous Party-supported experience. The whole point of the article was about the internal conflicts in each Party and how the Parties use the power of their establishment machines to resist changes sought by some of their own members from the inside; it didn't even claim to have anything at all to do with general elections or Party-unaffiliated voters.
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Old 9th March 2019, 11:29 AM   #959
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
That source not only has problems with how it categorizes candidates (like apparently taking the "Progressive" Caucus's word for it on its name) but also is referring to primaries, not the actual elections, so you're trying to use relatively small closed events with no non-Democrats present as an indicator of how those candidates would do with the non-Democrats in the general public. Primaries include cases where a corporatist and a progressive weren't in competition against each other, and cases where either one might compete against others of his/her own category. And the article itself explains the "establishment" candidates' success not in terms of the real popularity of their issue positions but in terms of Party support and name recognition from previous Party-supported experience. The whole point of the article was about the internal conflicts in each Party and how the Parties use the power of their establishment machines to resist changes sought by some of their own members from the inside; it didn't even claim to have anything at all to do with general elections or Party-unaffiliated voters.
Almost half of the states have open primaries, where you do not have to be a registered member of the party, including such early states as New Hampshire and South Carolina. And your argument seems to be that the guys who keep losing in the Democratic primaries would win in the general election.
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Old 9th March 2019, 12:22 PM   #960
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And Cory Booker came across quite well on Colbert tonight with his justice system reform platform.
Cory Booker is incredibly smart and incredibly articulate. I like his policy proposals. Hell, I like almost EVERYTHING about him. But he scares me in the General simply because he's African American.

And THAT REASON bothers me to no end. It SHOULDN'T matter. But it DOES. Because it matters to poor whites who will vote against their own interests because of bigotry.

And I'm not saying they are consciously bigoted, but subconsciously bigoted. People of EVERY color or race regardless how liberal they might think they are show a racial bias to people of their own race.

Obama demonstrated that an articulate intelligent African-American can be elected President so Booker should be able to as well. But I think Obama led to a racial backlash and it was one that Trump rode to the White House.
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