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Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , assault incidents , Chicago incidents , Jussie Smollett

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Old 1st February 2019, 08:44 AM   #441
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If he even actually has a broken rib...
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:44 AM   #442
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
That pile of speculation in your quote fails to account for the witness on the other end of the phone at the time of the attacks who heard the "MAGA" shouts.
Highly unlikely.

* First, he happens to be on the phone to his manager when he's attacked.

* The manager can hear every detail of the attack, including the racist taunts.

* The manager doesn't bother to call the police or, as far as reported, even check how Smollett is.

* Smollett won't release phone records that would at least prove they were in contact at that time.

How many more red flags do you need before calling BS?
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:46 AM   #443
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
If he even actually has a broken rib...
As I say, he must have a high pain threshold to wander round for half an hour with a broken rib. He didn't phone for an ambulance, he didn't call police and he didn't inform the security guard. I think we can add 'broken rib' to the list of unproven and unlikely elements in this story.
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:48 AM   #444
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
My thought was from an intentional fall to the ground. He may not have wanted to break a rib and instead wanted to cause a bruise or even just to get a lot of salt and dirt on his clothes. This all would be to make it look like the attackers roughed you up and you even got knocked down. So maybe he threw himself down onto a curb or some other thing that could cause a bruise. So maybe he hit his ribcage so hard that it broke a rib. And maybe he really didn't intend to cause that degree of self-injury.

Anyway, I think the report is of a fractured rib and that can even be a tiny hairline fracture. That's not the same as a major break.
I'm going to quote this crap back at you when the attackers are convicted. It's going to be fun seeing you try to justify it.
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:49 AM   #445
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
OK maybe he borrowed someone's.
If he broke a rib, it would likely have been caused by slipping on the ice/slush and landing on a rock hard chunk of murder MAGA COUNTRY ICE MURDER chunks.

Indeed your humble correspondent was almost murdered by an ice murder chunk this morning and was saved naught by Dame Fortune but rather by his dextricouscity.
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:51 AM   #446
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
OK maybe he borrowed someone's.
We'd call this taking the piss. You're doing this as performance art, aren't you.

Oh, and if he borrowed someone elses, you'd have to re-write your little makey uppie story about phone records, scooter apps and not giving his phone to the police. Best get onto that, hadn't you.
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:53 AM   #447
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
My thought was from an intentional fall to the ground. He may not have wanted to break a rib and instead wanted to cause a bruise or even just to get a lot of salt and dirt on his clothes. This all would be to make it look like the attackers roughed you up and you even got knocked down. So maybe he threw himself down onto a curb or some other thing that could cause a bruise. So maybe he hit his ribcage so hard that it broke a rib. And maybe he really didn't intend to cause that degree of self-injury.

Anyway, I think the report is of a fractured rib and that can even be a tiny hairline fracture. That's not the same as a major break.
I've picked out the most salient words in this pile.
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:54 AM   #448
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I'm going to quote this crap back at you when the attackers are convicted. It's going to be fun seeing you try to justify it.
And I won't throw it back at you when it's proven to be a hoax because that's what an adult would do.
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:57 AM   #449
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If we are talking about the attack occurring on the walk back from the Subway, then the window is 10 minutes at most, I think.

So I think the exact time of the attack becomes important.

We'd also possibly have GPS location info at the time of the phone call.

The call should give the police precise time and location info.

There could be valuable evidence at the location, plus it would tell you what cameras are at the spot.

Do we know the elapsed time from leaving the Subway to arriving at the apartment? Even approximately?
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:58 AM   #450
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
I have no knowledge of how many seconds are unaccounted for.
I keep reading that 60 seconds passes without any camera showing Smollett. He was in a "camera-free zone" for 60 seconds. The commentary is that if he really was attacked then it had to happen in those missing 60 seconds.
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:59 AM   #451
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
And I won't throw it back at you when it's proven to be a hoax because that's what an adult would do.
Unfortunately it will never be proven. No evidence will be discovered to support it, plenty of red flags will remain and it will fade from public scrutiny with 90% of people believing it never happened and the other 10% bumbling around in their world of make-believe where masked MAGA white supremacist racist homophobic ninjas go round lynching - and scratching - black people on the streets of Chicago.
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Old 1st February 2019, 08:59 AM   #452
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
No, the simplest explanation, which for the life of me I can't see why you people resist like it's bubonic plague, is that the guy is telling the truth. Until you've evidence to the contrary (and how long is it now?...plenty of time to have come up with something), that should be your default/ holding position.

The rest of this stuff is just stuff you've just plucked out of the air.
I'd say the simplest explanation is that he and his manager are lying. It requires the least number of people, the least number of events, etc.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:00 AM   #453
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I've picked out the most salient words in this pile.
Mike, it's called an alternative hypothesis. It is standard scientific methodology and is also used in a whole variety of other realms including crime solving.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:00 AM   #454
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Unfortunately it will never be proven. No evidence will be discovered to support it, plenty of red flags will remain and it will fade from public scrutiny with 90% of people believing it never happened and the other 10% bumbling around in their world of make-believe where masked MAGA white supremacist racist homophobic ninjas go round lynching - and scratching - black people on the streets of Chicago.
Have faith the Duke lacrosse trial and Tawana Brawley shows that once in awhile the truth will come out
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:01 AM   #455
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Have faith the Duke lacrosse trial and Tawana Brawley shows that once in awhile the truth will come out
I really hope it does but something tells me...
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:03 AM   #456
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
No, the simplest explanation, which for the life of me I can't see why you people....
Lol. Comedy gold
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:05 AM   #457
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
The argument I'm addressing is that if Smollett is telling the truth, then he would happily hand over his phone because it would help with his case. But his phone would add nothing to his case and all of the reasons even skeptical posters gave show us reasons handing over the phone could suck. Given all that, not turning in his phone doesn't look like particularly damming evidence he's lying.
Exactly correct. All it really means is that the alleged phone call is also irrelevant and adds nothing to the case.

I was just surprised that anyone was talking about the phone call as if it meant something.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:07 AM   #458
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Exactly correct. All it really means is that the alleged phone call is also irrelevant and adds nothing to the case.

I was just surprised that anyone was talking about the phone call as if it meant something.
But it does. If the phone call never happened then that proves the whole incident is fake.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:08 AM   #459
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I don't think we are sure of either when or where this attack happened yet.

Other than, "somewhere between the Subway and the apartment building".

The police may know, but I can't find anything in the reporting that tells us with any certainty.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:10 AM   #460
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
But it does. If the phone call never happened then that proves the whole incident is fake.
Well, if the event is a hoax, then the phone call will be in the records as claimed.

A phone call is a good way to add weight to the hoax.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:13 AM   #461
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I'd say the simplest explanation is that he and his manager are lying. It requires the least number of people, the least number of events, etc.
If this is your standard, then the simplest explanation of just about ANY crime report would have to be that the report is a lie.

Alternatively, we might consider that if its a lie we would need a motivation for a lie which seems at least as presented, not to serve anybody's interests too well and would create a considerable risk. We would need at least a few additional events- a phone call coordinating the lie between him and his manager, the additional event and possibly additional people involved in the initial injuries. Aquisition of the noise and fluid. Some as yet undemonstrated thought process that this particular lie with such odd details would be a better cover up/attack on Trumpists/ whatever than a simpler and less falsifiable lie. That's a lot of stuff needed as compared to a pair of bigots.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:15 AM   #462
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Well, if the event is a hoax, then the phone call will be in the records as claimed.

A phone call is a good way to add weight to the hoax.
Seems to be the whole thing got way out of Smollett's control. IMO he thought he could tell a lie and people would sympathise and forget about it. I doubt he thought it through.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:18 AM   #463
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
It isn't hard to imagine good reasons he wouldn't turn over records either. If he at some point called a phone sex line or a suicide hotline for instance. Records can easily be personal in a million ways.



And again, all the records would confirm would be the existence and time of the call that he already told them. If he is being honest then neither phone or records add anything to the case. So not turning either over is fully consistent with him being honest.



There certainly are some red flags, but I would count phone or records among them.
The thing is, not turning over his records is also consistent with him being dishonest. This is unfortunate, because right now his story has zero corroboration. Not only that, but it has some elements that are consistent with him being dishonest, but not very consistent with him being honest.

What his story really needs right now is some substantive corroboration, and an action from him that is consistent with honesty and not with dishonesty.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:18 AM   #464
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
If this is your standard, then the simplest explanation of just about ANY crime report would have to be that the report is a lie.

Alternatively, we might consider that if its a lie we would need a motivation for a lie which seems at least as presented, not to serve anybody's interests too well and would create a considerable risk. We would need at least a few additional events- a phone call coordinating the lie between him and his manager, the additional event and possibly additional people involved in the initial injuries. Aquisition of the noise and fluid. Some as yet undemonstrated thought process that this particular lie with such odd details would be a better cover up/attack on Trumpists/ whatever than a simpler and less falsifiable lie. That's a lot of stuff needed as compared to a pair of bigots.
"Why would someone do this?" is really not a good metric by which to judge human behaviour.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:24 AM   #465
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I think a single broken rib is consistent with a handle bar injury.

I also know that there is a bike sharing rack literally right outside the subway.

My obsession with the scooters is because Detroit is so full of them, but Chicago is full of bike sharing racks.

The Divvy bike rack holds up to 14 bikes, it is right outside the back exit of 2 Illinois Center.

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Old 1st February 2019, 09:25 AM   #466
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Mike, it's called an alternative hypothesis..........
When you've shown the need for an alternative hypothesis, we can set about discussing how you propose testing it. At the moment, that "need" appears to me to amount to "I want this attack to be a hoax".
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:27 AM   #467
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
I think
Evidence?
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:27 AM   #468
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
.......My obsession with the scooters is because Detroit is so full of them..........
Erm.............in which city did this attack occur?
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:29 AM   #469
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
That pile of speculation in your quote fails to account for the witness on the other end of the phone at the time of the attacks who heard the "MAGA" shouts. You're being selective.
If and when there is evidence of that phone call, then I will change my position accordingly.

Quote:
Why would you think the police are saying that Smollett is the victim, and not the accused?
Because he apparently was beaten up. I don’t doubt that.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:29 AM   #470
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
.......My obsession with the scooters.......
You're obsessed with them, but you can't even begin to justify that obsession in relation to this event. Get back to us when you've got plausible answers to this:

Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
So, we've got no reports yet of witnesses to a scooter crash. We've got no reports yet of a damaged or missing scooter. We've got no reports of him riding a scooter. The police aren't mentioning anything about scooters (indeed, they're saying he is the victim, not a suspect). The scooters are reportedly not available at night anyway. Yet the reason he hasn't handed over his phone records to the police (who could just ask the scooter company for the details anyway) is because he's hiding evidence of having a crash on an electric scooter. It's going to be very difficult to take anything you say seriously ever again.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:30 AM   #471
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I think you'd be pretty brave to try riding a scooter or a bike at 5 degrees.

Especially when the walk you need to make is likely in the 5 minute range.

I do see some Twitter posts talking about a two hour time gap from Subway to apartment, but nothing solid on that.

It seems like we really don't know much about the sequence of events at all yet.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:32 AM   #472
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
"Why would someone do this?" is really not a good metric by which to judge human behaviour.
You need to make that argument to every investigative agency, because they tend to look for motivations as part of their efforts.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:32 AM   #473
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Supposedly he just got into town that night, so whoever would be targeting him specifically would have needed to know that.

Supposedly went to a bar first, then the Subway, then the friend's apartment.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:34 AM   #474
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
You need to make that argument to every investigative agency, because they tend to look for motivations as part of their efforts.
Why do people make ETUFO, alien, and Bigfoot, etc. reports?

None of them saw any such things, and most of them insist they aren't mistaken.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:35 AM   #475
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Again we have this weird lopsided skepticism. The fact that no video cameras seem to have recorded his assailants or assault proves it didn't happen. Yet the fact that no cameras recorded him picking up a bike/scooter...
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:36 AM   #476
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
You need to make that argument to every investigative agency, because they tend to look for motivations as part of their efforts.
The point I'm making is that a lack of understanding as to why somebody would behave in a certain way is not a reason to suspect they did not.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:36 AM   #477
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
When you've shown the need for an alternative hypothesis, we can set about discussing how you propose testing it. At the moment, that "need" appears to me to amount to "I want this attack to be a hoax".
The leading hypothesis is the original claim which we simplify to "it happened like he says it did." The alternative hypotheses all are variations on "it didn't happen like he said it did and there is some form of hoaxing or lying."
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:38 AM   #478
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Why do people make ETUFO, alien, and Bigfoot, etc. reports?

None of them saw any such things, and most of them insist they aren't mistaken.
There are absolutely motivations for all of those claims.

They are discussed in depth in other parts of this forum.

Again we come back to the inconsistency of the critics here. The report that the attackers would say "MAGA Country" makes this claim dubious because that would not be a rational thing to say. But the lack of a rational motivation for concocting an elaborate lie involving multiple people is not an issue because people do weird things.

If you're throwing out rational motivation for Smollett, then NO behavior he suggests from attackers should raise a red flag.
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Last edited by Cavemonster; 1st February 2019 at 09:43 AM.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:38 AM   #479
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
Again we have this weird lopsided skepticism. The fact that no video cameras seem to have recorded his assailants or assault proves it didn't happen. Yet the fact that no cameras recorded him picking up a bike/scooter...
The one thing that seems to be consistently reported is that the area is loaded with cameras. The police initially thought they'd Shirley have pertinent video because of the camera density.

As for the bike/scooter thing, I think that is trolling.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:40 AM   #480
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
There are absolutely motivations for all of those claims.
There are absolutely motivations for staging fake crimes.

I generally don't understand them, but they are there.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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