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Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , assault incidents , Chicago incidents , Jussie Smollett

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Old 1st February 2019, 09:41 AM   #481
baron
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
There are absolutely motivations for all of those claims.
For sure, or they would not have been made. Point is, in most cases you don't know what those motivations are, yet the fact you don't know doesn't make them more credible.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:41 AM   #482
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
If this is your standard, then the simplest explanation of just about ANY crime report would have to be that the report is a lie.
MikeG appealed to the Simplicity Standard, not me. Take it up with him.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:43 AM   #483
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
That pile of speculation in your quote fails to account for the witness on the other end of the phone at the time of the attacks who heard the "MAGA" shouts.
You keep talking about this phone call as if it's a proven event that corroborates a claim.

In reality, it is itself another claim that also needs corroboration. It's premature to consider it as evidence of anything.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:47 AM   #484
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
The leading hypothesis is the original claim which we simplify to "it happened like he says it did." The alternative hypotheses all are variations on "it didn't happen like he said it did and there is some form of hoaxing or lying."
The fact is that there need be no 'alternative hypothesis" rather the counter is that the original hypothesis is not supported by objective evidence, the objective evidence reviewed so far does not support it (I'd say the tapes contradict it), and our hero is not fully cooperating.

The Superinintendo of the PO is supposed to talk about it today for some ******* reason
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:51 AM   #485
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
When you've shown the need for an alternative hypothesis, we can set about discussing how you propose testing it.
There is no need for an alternative hypothesis. The burden of proof rests solely on Smollett. No other hypothesis is needed, to observe that Smollett has not met his burden of proof. No other hypothesis is needed, to observe that Smollett has actually refused to do things that would provide even the most minimal amount of corroboration.

At this point, we can simply and reasonably say that while we do not know what really happened, there is no evidence that it happened the way Smollett says it did.

---

ETA: That being said, my alternative hypothesis is that a unicorn tried to gore him, but because Smollett is still a virgin, the magical beast's horn glanced off his chest, leaving him with a cracked rib. Since "this is MAGA country!" is marginally more plausible than "a unicorn mistook me for a fallen woman", that's the story he told to Jake the Condo Guy. Totally understandable, but what a tangled web we weave, etc.

Last edited by theprestige; 1st February 2019 at 09:54 AM.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:51 AM   #486
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
The point I'm making is that a lack of understanding as to why somebody would behave in a certain way is not a reason to suspect they did not.
Its certainly not conclusive, but it is a hurdle. Every point were discussing is about plausibility and likelihood. The case that he is lying is being made all about speculation of motivations. The incredulity that attackers would be motivated to yell MAGA. The motives in not handing over a phone.

Clearly the case that he is lying would be far stronger if there were a plausible motivation for him to make up this story.

There are certainly possible reasons he may be lying, but without plausible reasons and only "smell test" sorts of evidence That's not a very strong argument.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:52 AM   #487
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
That pile of speculation in your quote fails to account for the witness on the other end of the phone at the time of the attacks who heard the "MAGA" shouts. You're being selective.

Why would you think the police are saying that Smollett is the victim, and not the accused?


Because they are doing what the police should do: taking him at his word and investigating it as if he is telling the truth.

We are not the police. The facts as we know them fit different scenarios. Given the lack of video, the refusal to turn over the phone and various other things we know, some speculation is not out of line.


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Old 1st February 2019, 09:54 AM   #488
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
The thing is, not turning over his records is also consistent with him being dishonest. This is unfortunate, because right now his story has zero corroboration. Not only that, but it has some elements that are consistent with him being dishonest, but not very consistent with him being honest.

What his story really needs right now is some substantive corroboration, and an action from him that is consistent with honesty and not with dishonesty.


Right. A reasonable person who was the victim of a crime would cooperate fully. If I were in his position I might ask for a written assurance that the info on my phone would be held in confidence and that only the info needed for corroboration would be released.


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Old 1st February 2019, 09:54 AM   #489
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
I can understand not handing over the phone. A lot of younger people these days live on their phones, and being separated from them for even 15 minutes can start to cause then anxiety. Can you imagine how they would react to being without it for the time it took to get it back once it was considered Police Evidence? Heck I don't live on my phone, I use it maybe a couple of times a week, I don't have anything embarrassing on it, and I still wouldn't give it to the police as evidence because it's my phone and I might have need for it at some point before they return it. For someone that is on their phone nearly 24/7, that would be a huge concern.
Not to mention, a person may have things on their phone that they don't want random people seeing or leaking to the public. Especially a famous person. Extra especially a famous gay person.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:58 AM   #490
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
Right. A reasonable person who was the victim of a crime would cooperate fully. If I were in his position I might ask for a written assurance that the info on my phone would be held in confidence and that only the info needed for corroboration would be released.
I'm almost in agreement with you.

If I were in his position, I might not trust a written agreement from the CPD to be worth more than the paper it's written on. Several people have offered what I think are good reasons to not turn over phone records, even if events happened as claimed.

But at the same time, if I'm not going to turn over the records and let the authorities corroborate my claim about the phone call, I'm also not going to pretend that my claim about the phone call corroborates my claim about the attack.

Quote:
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Sorry, I'll need to see your phone records before I accept this claim.
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Old 1st February 2019, 09:58 AM   #491
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
Again we have this weird lopsided skepticism. The fact that no video cameras seem to have recorded his assailants or assault proves it didn't happen. Yet the fact that no cameras recorded him picking up a bike/scooter...


Not the way I see it. The lack of video evidence simply opens the door to alternatives. More than that, it makes prosecution very difficult, especially for a hate crime. Having the phone record would corroborate the managerís story. Having video would corroborate his.

The current facts we have donít prove anything at all, which is the problem.


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Old 1st February 2019, 09:58 AM   #492
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
As I say, he must have a high pain threshold to wander round for half an hour with a broken rib. He didn't phone for an ambulance, he didn't call police and he didn't inform the security guard. I think we can add 'broken rib' to the list of unproven and unlikely elements in this story.
I broke ribs snowboarding. Made 2 more runs down the mountain afterward, they didn't feel broken right away. Wasn't sure they were until the next day. Went to work anyway.
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:00 AM   #493
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
The leading hypothesis is the original claim which we simplify to "it happened like he says it did." The alternative hypotheses all are variations on "it didn't happen like he said it did and there is some form of hoaxing or lying."
Demonstrating that you know nothing of science. Alternative hypotheses are not "the first hypothesis is wrong", because that's what you're testing when you test the hypothesis.
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:01 AM   #494
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Are the broken ribs confirmed? Reporting seems pretty sketchy.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:02 AM   #495
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
There is no need for an alternative hypothesis. The burden of proof rests solely on Smollett. No other hypothesis is needed, to observe that Smollett has not met his burden of proof. No other hypothesis is needed, to observe that Smollett has actually refused to do things that would provide even the most minimal amount of corroboration.

At this point, we can simply and reasonably say that while we do not know what really happened, there is no evidence that it happened the way Smollett says it did.

---

ETA: That being said, my alternative hypothesis is that a unicorn tried to gore him, but because Smollett is still a virgin, the magical beast's horn glanced off his chest, leaving him with a cracked rib. Since "this is MAGA country!" is marginally more plausible than "a unicorn mistook me for a fallen woman", that's the story he told to Jake the Condo Guy. Totally understandable, but what a tangled web we weave, etc.
Burden of proof loses meaning without the existence of a null hypothesis.

Leading hypothesis or theory: It happened like he said.
Null hypothesis: It didn't happen like he said.

I think that you always have to include that alternative hypothesis. In many sciences the null hypothesis is the lead hypothesis by default.
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:02 AM   #496
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I'm confused about the scenario here. I can see how he might have been attacked and leaked on by a cybernetic scooter during a one minute gap in the video coverage, but where did the scooter get a rope?
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:04 AM   #497
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I'm guessing that he has only the scratch and no other injuries, from looking around the web reports.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:04 AM   #498
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Interesting theory:

Jussie is big pals with Kamala
Went to her announcement that she is going to run for President
Kamala introduced some legislation about anti-lynching which has gone nowhere
Jussie ends up the subject of a "horrifying" "hate" 'attack" in "MAGA COUNTRY"
Kamala tweets out that he was lynched and that they should pass her anti-lynching legislation.
Her completely unnecessary legislation.

Now that is a theory with some sex appeal!
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:07 AM   #499
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Originally Posted by phunk View Post
I broke ribs snowboarding. Made 2 more runs down the mountain afterward, they didn't feel broken right away. Wasn't sure they were until the next day. Went to work anyway.
That's totally fair. But by the same token, you probably didn't go around saying you had a broken rib until after you found out you had a broken rib.

If Smollett's rib didn't feel particularly broken at the time, then how did the "broken rib" idea come up? On the other hand, if Smollett did have reason to think his rib was broken, then why didn't he seek medical assistance?
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:08 AM   #500
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https://www.tmz.com/2019/01/31/jussi...ddress-attack/

Saturday show is sold out.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:09 AM   #501
theprestige
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Burden of proof loses meaning without the existence of a null hypothesis.

Leading hypothesis or theory: It happened like he said.
Null hypothesis: It didn't happen like he said.

I think that you always have to include that alternative hypothesis. In many sciences the null hypothesis is the lead hypothesis by default.
Yes. However, the null hypothesis does not incur a burden of proof. It exists purely to define the parameters for proving the actual claim. A good null is constructed in such a way that falsifying it proves the actual claim. The null itself is never intended to be proven - only disproven.

The claim is that Smollett was attacked by two men. The null is that he wasn't. Finding the two men that attacked him would disprove the null and prove the claim. Nobody is obliged to prove the null.

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Old 1st February 2019, 10:10 AM   #502
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Is there actually swelling in the hospital bed photo, or is that just the effect of the wide angle lens?
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:10 AM   #503
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Originally Posted by Cavemonster View Post
Its certainly not conclusive, but it is a hurdle. Every point were discussing is about plausibility and likelihood. The case that he is lying is being made all about speculation of motivations.
Some are, some are not.

Some red flags about motivation:

* Why would two guys shout 'MAGA country' in Chicago?

* Why would two guys carry bleach and a noose given that the testimony indicated they were surprised to recognised Smollett?

* Why would the attackers be so succinct and informative in their communication, informing their victim in nine short words that they were influenced by Trump, that they were homophobic, that they were racist and that they recognised Smollett from the show 'Empire'?

* Why would a person be attacked and then wander round for 30 minutes with a phone, yet not call the police, or an ambulance, or notify the security guard?

* Why would someone who heard his friend being attacked over the phone not call the police themselves?

* Why would that someone not come forward with the evidence at the start of the investigation, and maybe offer his phone records of that time period for perusal?

* Why would Smollett wear a noose around their neck for 45 minutes?

* Why would Smollett not provide police with evidence that might lead to the capture of his assailants?

Some red flags about feasibility:

* How does someone who is attacked by two guys end up with just a tiny scratch and an alleged broken rib?

* How does someone with a broken rib walk round the streets for half an hour?

* How likely is it than an attack took place in the few minutes of time that Smollett was not visible to CCTV?

* How likely is it that an attack by two vocal men in the streets of a big city was not seen or heard by a single independent third party?

Now even if you want to focus solely on the motivation red flags, they surely outweigh the contra-argument of 'Why would Smollett make up something like this?'
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:12 AM   #504
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
I'm confused about the scenario here. I can see how he might have been attacked and leaked on by a cybernetic scooter during a one minute gap in the video coverage, but where did the scooter get a rope?
There's an app for that, probably.
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:48 AM   #505
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I'm putting the likelihood that what he claims happened actually took place at around 0%
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:50 AM   #506
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Interesting theory:

Jussie is big pals with Kamala
Went to her announcement that she is going to run for President
Kamala introduced some legislation about anti-lynching which has gone nowhere
Jussie ends up the subject of a "horrifying" "hate" 'attack" in "MAGA COUNTRY"
Kamala tweets out that he was lynched and that they should pass her anti-lynching legislation.
Her completely unnecessary legislation.

Now that is a theory with some sex appeal!
A post asserting that a combination of:
  • a presidential rally,
  • anti-lynching legislation,
  • a reported attack,
  • the phrase "MAGA COUNTRY",
  • and a tweet about legislation
leads to something with "sex appeal" is a bit disturbing, even on this forum.
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:53 AM   #507
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
* Why would the attackers be so succinct and informative in their communication, informing their victim in nine short words that they were influenced by Trump, that they were homophobic, that they were racist and that they recognised Smollett from the show 'Empire'?
Snipped from a very good list you provided. All great points.

Just wanted to add something to this bit:

Exactly zero people exist in the world who are violent, criminal white racist homophobes living in Chicago walking around at 2am in the horrible cold with ski masks and MAGA hats on top of those ski masks equipped and ready with bleach and rope.

Zero.

Did not happen. Zero possibility it did.

But if by some miracle two such people did exist? They would not have the faintest clue who the actors in Empire are. They would, at best, be barely aware that the show existed.

They most certainly wouldn't recognize a little-known (at least to whites) actor from that series in the dark of night while everyone is bundled up against the cold.

This. did. not. take. place.

To give the slightest credence to the possibility that it did completely beclowns one.
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Old 1st February 2019, 10:58 AM   #508
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
Did they ever catch the guys?
Yes. They did. It was one guy named Morton Downy Jr.
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:03 AM   #509
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
A post asserting that a combination of:
  • a presidential rally,
  • anti-lynching legislation,
  • a reported attack,
  • the phrase "MAGA COUNTRY",
  • and a tweet about legislation
leads to something with "sex appeal" is a bit disturbing, even on this forum.
A lot of 'conservative' posters here are just that thirsty.
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:07 AM   #510
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"So after I fell off the scooter that has yet to be found, has not been reported missing, I pulled some rope and a liquid from the Negro dimension - you know, the place where Jordan Davis pulled his shotgun to flash at Michael Dunn, and where Trayvon Martin hid in his mysterious sneak attack on a guy that was following him around - and fashioned a noose, which I put around my neck."

"THis is much better than just, you know, saying that I crashed a cheap scooter that I could easily pay to replace."

Man, some of y'all...
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:11 AM   #511
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
"So after I fell off the scooter that has yet to be found, has not been reported missing, I pulled some rope and a liquid from the Negro dimension
You mean a Black hole.
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:12 AM   #512
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:12 AM   #513
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Holy crap, my coat has "negro dimensions"!

And here I am calling them pockets like a G-D sucker.

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Old 1st February 2019, 11:13 AM   #514
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
A lot of 'conservative' posters here are just that thirsty.
And a lot of liberal posters swallow everything
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:14 AM   #515
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
"So after I fell off the scooter that has yet to be found, has not been reported missing, I pulled some rope and a liquid from the Negro dimension - you know, the place where Jordan Davis pulled his shotgun to flash at Michael Dunn, and where Trayvon Martin hid in his mysterious sneak attack on a guy that was following him around - and fashioned a noose, which I put around my neck."

"THis is much better than just, you know, saying that I crashed a cheap scooter that I could easily pay to replace."

Man, some of y'all...
My guess is that he tried a late night hookup with someone off of Grinder or whatever, ended up getting mildly beaten up by them (and I'd wager it was a black guy or guys) and needed a cover story for his injuries and decided it was a good "two birds with one stone" type of thing. As long as you're coming up with a cover story, why not generate attention and defame racial and political opponents while you're at it?

If I had to guess, that's the sort of thing I would suspect.

Also entirely possible the attention and political motives are the entirety of it and he injured himself and put the rope around his neck (easily concealed under his clothing) in an area he could tell wasn't covered by cameras.
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:14 AM   #516
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Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy View Post
Yes. They did. It was one guy named Morton Downy Jr.
You misspelled Tawana Brawley
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:35 AM   #517
Cavemonster
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Some are, some are not.
Some red flags about motivation:

* Why would two guys shout 'MAGA country' in Chicago?
Off the top of my head?

1) They were referring to the country in general, or broader areas of the state. It's more puzzling to me that people would assume that the statement could only be an assesment of the city's demographics when it does not mention "city" or "chicago". I live in upstate NY. Our state is pretty blue, so is the city. But there are certainly areas that consider themselves MAGA country.

2) They lived in a particular enclave where the majority of people they spoke to agreed with their political views and gave them a general sense that they were part of a "silent majority" in whatever relevant area they were attempting to address. That's a pretty common scenario and a not uncommon sentiment from Trump supporters over the last couple years.

3) It was more of a rally style mantra with no particular assessment of local politics intended.

4) They were intoxicated or hopped up on anger and it sounded cool to them at the time.

5) Those aren't actually the words they spoke. They may have said "MAGA (blank)" and Smollett and his agent misheard the second word, or press misreported the phrase.




Quote:
* Why would two guys carry bleach and a noose given that the testimony indicated they were surprised to recognised Smollett?
I don't think the testimony has been so clear that either the assailants were surprised or that the substance was bleach. Even if those two things were facts, a simple answer might be that they were on their way to or from doing laundry. Late night laundromats are common in cities.

Or, the substance wasn't bleach and the cord used as a noose was any of the many random pieces of something that many people carry.

But again, I don't think its clear that they hadn't gone looking for Smollett, in which case any kind of preparation would be possible.

Quote:
* Why would the attackers be so succinct and informative in their communication, informing their victim in nine short words that they were influenced by Trump, that they were homophobic, that they were racist and that they recognised Smollett from the show 'Empire
This is really the only point that gives me major pause. It's a little on the nose. But as far as motivations go. Certainly people who hate black people, and gay people exist. And shouting epithets during attacks on these groups is something these people seem to do. These groups also tend to be Trump fans. Look at Charlottesville to see footage of people shouting "Jews will not replace us!" and "MAGA!" it's cartoonish, but it certainly exists. Hating on particular celebrities is also pretty darned popular in the white nationalist corners of the internet.

Having all this information shouted in such a succinct package seems a little convenient though, I'll give you that.


Quote:
* Why would a person be attacked and then wander round for 30 minutes with a phone, yet not call the police, or an ambulance, or notify the security guard?
Its not uncommon for victims of all sorts of attack to not act as a "perfect victim".
1)He may have been shocked or in disbelief.

2)He may, as many people in marginalized groups do, have a severe distrust of police involvement.

3)He may have had an unrelated reason not to want to involve authorities, for instance if he were high or carrying drugs.

4)He may have thought it would be impossible to actually find his attackers, and going to authorities would only give people on social media a reason to attack him which would inevitably lead to death threats and a smear on his name.

5) He may, due to adrenaline, not have felt his injuries or thought he needed medical care.

Quote:

* Why would someone who heard his friend being attacked over the phone not call the police themselves?
For many of the same reasons listed above for starters.
Quote:
* Why would that someone not come forward with the evidence at the start of the investigation, and maybe offer his phone records of that time period for perusal?
See my other posts on the phone records. As well as others on both sides of the issue who have given many reasons he may not want to share his phone or records.
Quote:

* Why would Smollett wear a noose around their neck for 45 minutes?
This one is just strange, but it's just as strange if the story is real or fake, so it isn't particularly relevant.

Quote:
* Why would Smollett not provide police with evidence that might lead to the capture of his assailants?
This seems to be a repeat. Are you referring to the phone again? That clearly would not help find the assailants.

Quote:
Some red flags about feasibility:

* How does someone who is attacked by two guys end up with just a tiny scratch and an alleged broken rib?
We don't have access to his full medical charts, so you're sort of minimizing and extrapolating from our limited information. We don't actually know what injuries he may have sustained.

That said, the attack as you noted would have occurred in a brief window. We don't know anything about the comparative fitness of the assailants and Smollett, any sounds or events that may have cut an attack short, their possible intoxication.

It is not rare for a fight to end without broken bones.

Quote:
* How does someone with a broken rib walk round the streets for half an hour?
Already answered by another poster who experienced a broken rib.

Quote:
* How likely is it than an attack took place in the few minutes of time that Smollett was not visible to CCTV?
I'll admit I haven't been following the minutia of the timing, so I'm not sure if we have so definitively narrowed down the time frame. But if we have, that's as much a problem for any alternate theory. When did he aquire the rope the bleach/fluid and the injury? Or the scooter or whatever. If those events are not on tape with a narrow window that would be as much a weird coincidence as the attack not being on tape.

Or maybe we're all just overestimating how much street activity is actually taped.

Quote:
* How likely is it that an attack by two vocal men in the streets of a big city was not seen or heard by a single independent third party?
Again something we're not sure of. Police don't make every possible witness public immediately. That said, it was very late on a bitterly cold night. Not hard to believe that a particular block would be deserted.
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:37 AM   #518
eeyore1954
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
I can understand not handing over the phone. A lot of younger people these days live on their phones, and being separated from them for even 15 minutes can start to cause then anxiety. Can you imagine how they would react to being without it for the time it took to get it back once it was considered Police Evidence? Heck I don't live on my phone, I use it maybe a couple of times a week, I don't have anything embarrassing on it, and I still wouldn't give it to the police as evidence because it's my phone and I might have need for it at some point before they return it. For someone that is on their phone nearly 24/7, that would be a huge concern.
I donít think thatís a legitimate reason pretty much everything can be restored on a new phone and I am guessing he could afford it.
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:51 AM   #519
MikeG
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
I'm putting the likelihood that what he claims happened actually took place at around 0%
Of course you are. He's black.
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Old 1st February 2019, 12:07 PM   #520
LTC8K6
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His injuries only appear to be a couple of scratches, as far as I can glean from the news reports.
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