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Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , assault incidents , Chicago incidents , Jussie Smollett

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Old 27th February 2019, 07:20 PM   #2921
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
You and others have harped on that this couldn't have been true because it is 'crazy' sounding, but as I've repeatedly shown, it is not. Crazier things much like this have happened a lot recently, specifically from Trump Republicans. I didn't think I had, how was it said, a better insight in to reality but that people keep saying something demonstrably untrue, I guess I do.
"Crazy" isn't a very good word. Imprecise, ambiguous words lead to faulty reasoning. "Improbable" or "implausible" might be better. Not perfect, just a little better.

There is no objective scale we can use to evaluate a degree of "craziness" to a particular claim and then compare that to another claim. The same may be true for "improbable" or "implausible" in this case, but I think they get a little closer to what people mean when they say that his story "didn't add up" or seemed highly unlikely to be true as claimed or as originally reported.
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Old 27th February 2019, 08:29 PM   #2922
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
"Crazy" isn't a very good word. Imprecise, ambiguous words lead to faulty reasoning. "Improbable" or "implausible" might be better. Not perfect, just a little better.



There is no objective scale we can use to evaluate a degree of "craziness" to a particular claim and then compare that to another claim. The same may be true for "improbable" or "implausible" in this case, but I think they get a little closer to what people mean when they say that his story "didn't add up" or seemed highly unlikely to be true as claimed or as originally reported.


That was the difference I was trying to point out. When a gay couple is run over and they have serious injuries, multiple witnesses...I donít even think the word crazy applies. Itís heavily on the ďprobableĒ side of the probability spectrum.

Smollettís story, on the other hand started off on the probable side when I saw the first reports, slightly on the improbable side when I read a bit more and then just stuck the needle all the way there the more and more we learned.

Crazy is indeed too imprecise.


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Old 27th February 2019, 11:55 PM   #2923
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
"Crazy" isn't a very good word. Imprecise, ambiguous words lead to faulty reasoning. "Improbable" or "implausible" might be better. Not perfect, just a little better.
But it wasnít merely the fact that his story was implausible. Just as importantly, it fit an established pattern of false accusations. And itís that failure to recognize the pattern which is what caught so many people flat-footed.
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Old 28th February 2019, 12:19 AM   #2924
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Ellen Page on hate crimes:

Ellen Page on Jussie Smollett Fallout: Hate Violence Is Not a Hoax (Guest Column)

I don't really have a huge problem with what she writes here in general except to note that she didn't look carefully at the underlying data that she cites to claim that there is "a rising tide of hate violence". In the other thread it was noted that data from year to year is not directly comparable because different numbers of police departments report data from year to year, and a large number (890 I believe) that hadn't previously been reporting data started reporting it in 2017. And of course, not all police departments are the same size.

To summarize, she starts with, Never mind the Jussie Smollett case, let me tell you about this other hate crime that really happened. (Some drunk guy at a football game harassed and attacked a lesbian couple in front of dozens of witnesses. The other fans "tackled him to the ground". story here). But OK, nobody ever questioned that that one was real.

Quote:
While the media and public debate the case and await more information, we must not lose sight of the very real, endemic violence that LGBTQ+ people, people of color and other underrepresented communities face every day.

I ask you not to question our pain, not to draw into question our trauma, but to maintain, wholeheartedly, that hate violence exists. The merits of one case should not and cannot call that into question. The media coverage does not convey the reality and totality of the cruelty and danger we face. This is the story that must be told.
Overall, I think she's misunderstanding the skepticism about the Jussie Smollett case and conflating it with people doubting that hate crimes happen at all.
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Old 28th February 2019, 12:24 AM   #2925
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
But it wasnít merely the fact that his story was implausible. Just as importantly, it fit an established pattern of false accusations. And itís that failure to recognize the pattern which is what caught so many people flat-footed.
Yeah, I've been thinking about that aspect too. It's an old, overused cliche to say "If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, . . . et cetera (you know the rest)", but once you've seen the details of enough hoaxes, you start to notice similar features of most of them, or many of them anyway. Certain tell-tale signs that this is BS. (OTOH, there is a potential risk in relying on pattern recognition, which is confirmation bias).
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Old 28th February 2019, 04:20 AM   #2926
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I'm not sure what the pattern is: Does this one fit the pattern, for instance?

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I AGREE
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Old 28th February 2019, 04:25 AM   #2927
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
I'm not sure what the pattern is: Does this one fit the pattern, for instance?

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I AGREE
It definitely fits a pattern just not the one you're thinking of
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Old 28th February 2019, 04:35 AM   #2928
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So what are the two patterns?
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Old 28th February 2019, 05:11 AM   #2929
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Edited by kmortis:  Removed previously moderated content and response

Last edited by kmortis; 28th February 2019 at 09:31 AM.
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Old 28th February 2019, 06:15 AM   #2930
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Ellen Page on hate crimes:

Ellen Page on Jussie Smollett Fallout: Hate Violence Is Not a Hoax (Guest Column)

I don't really have a huge problem with what she writes here in general except to note that she didn't look carefully at the underlying data that she cites to claim that there is "a rising tide of hate violence". In the other thread it was noted that data from year to year is not directly comparable because different numbers of police departments report data from year to year, and a large number (890 I believe) that hadn't previously been reporting data started reporting it in 2017. And of course, not all police departments are the same size.

To summarize, she starts with, Never mind the Jussie Smollett case, let me tell you about this other hate crime that really happened. (Some drunk guy at a football game harassed and attacked a lesbian couple in front of dozens of witnesses. The other fans "tackled him to the ground". story here). But OK, nobody ever questioned that that one was real.



Overall, I think she's misunderstanding the skepticism about the Jussie Smollett case and conflating it with people doubting that hate crimes happen at all.
There is a lot of that going around.

This case does not show hate crimes don't happen, it shows we need to use logic and reason even in emotionally charged situations.
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Old 28th February 2019, 02:19 PM   #2931
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
You seem to be taking a broad definition of "crazy" and using it to equivocate on the plausibility of Smollett's claim.

Yes, crazy stuff happens.

Yes, we tend to agree that crazy stuff that is well documented, and attested by multiple independent witnesses, really did happen even if it does seem crazy.

We didn't doubt Smollett because his story was "crazy". We doubted him because his story had a specific set of details that was implausible when taken together as part of a single incident. And because not only were the details implausible when taken all together, but there were no other witnesses to attest to it, and there was no other documentary evidence to support it.

I'm also dubious about the premise that because we know that certain specific "crazy" things have in fact happened, we should therefore be a priori credulous about every "crazy" claim that comes our way.
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
"Crazy" isn't a very good word. Imprecise, ambiguous words lead to faulty reasoning. "Improbable" or "implausible" might be better. Not perfect, just a little better.

There is no objective scale we can use to evaluate a degree of "craziness" to a particular claim and then compare that to another claim. The same may be true for "improbable" or "implausible" in this case, but I think they get a little closer to what people mean when they say that his story "didn't add up" or seemed highly unlikely to be true as claimed or as originally reported.
Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
That was the difference I was trying to point out. When a gay couple is run over and they have serious injuries, multiple witnesses...I donít even think the word crazy applies. Itís heavily on the ďprobableĒ side of the probability spectrum.

Smollettís story, on the other hand started off on the probable side when I saw the first reports, slightly on the improbable side when I read a bit more and then just stuck the needle all the way there the more and more we learned.

Crazy is indeed too imprecise.


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Yes, 'crazy' is not precise enough. It lets people who actually disagree with each other think they agree, and those who largely agree believe they are miles apart.

The element that some (although not all) are seeing as highly improbable that I keep arguing against is the 'it's highly or extremely implausible that MAGA people would commit petty hate crimes' (or the like). It isn't in the least implausible. There are entire alt-right gangs who have attacking people in the streets as an entry requirement. It would be the same as hearing a report of an Antifa guy punching a guy with a MAGA hat on. It isn't unlikely. Being overly skeptical because of that element is simply wrong.

And, to repeat this yet again, I'm not and have not argued that the default position should be 'definitely happened until proven otherwise'. That's why xjx388 I was so surprised by your post. I'm not even arguing against hearing the report and 'leaning towards improbable' is not something I argued against. Your journey there isn't even that different from mine, with the exception that when I first heard the report I assumed some distortion and exaggeration in reporting. I specifically said that following the evidence as one finds it is correct.

Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
But it wasnít merely the fact that his story was implausible. Just as importantly, it fit an established pattern of false accusations. And itís that failure to recognize the pattern which is what caught so many people flat-footed.
State the pattern.
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Old 28th February 2019, 03:00 PM   #2932
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
The element that some (although not all) are seeing as highly improbable that I keep arguing against is the 'it's highly or extremely implausible that MAGA people would commit petty hate crimes' (or the like).
That's not the element that some are seeing as highly improbable. It's the combination of elements, taken in their entirety. I thought I explained that pretty clearly in my post which you quoted but apparently didn't read.
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Old 28th February 2019, 03:09 PM   #2933
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post


State the pattern.
In my opinion it seems to be the prominent display of MAGA/Trump slogans and paraphernalia. Doesn't necessarily mean its a false report but in this case, added to the unlikely location and circumstances it left reasonable doubts.
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Old 28th February 2019, 03:37 PM   #2934
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Smollett must be thrilled that Cohen and Trump/Kim have knocked him out of the headlines.
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Old 28th February 2019, 04:36 PM   #2935
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Quote:
State the pattern.
Well for one thing, they tend to be heavy on symbols or icons (e.g. the noose or swastikas, racist slurs) and light on actual harm to the alleged victim. The details vary of course, but the icons or symbols of some sort are usually an important element to show that the alleged crime was a hate crime.
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Old 1st March 2019, 06:01 AM   #2936
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Body Language Expert dissects Smollett appearance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sH7IalJyMjk
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Old 1st March 2019, 07:53 AM   #2937
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Well for one thing, they tend to be heavy on symbols or icons (e.g. the noose or swastikas, racist slurs) and light on actual harm to the alleged victim. The details vary of course, but the icons or symbols of some sort are usually an important element to show that the alleged crime was a hate crime.
One major thing I notice is the racisim doesn't tend to be very ...vile in comparison. It's always very simple, just enough to get the point across, not the loving poetry to ignorance real racists tend to prefer.

Anyone remember the crap some long banned posters user to say? That was real racist garbage. Hell listen to the tames white power song you can find and it will be worse than "black fag" hell, Archie bunker was worse than that ( used the word coon as opposed to black when angry and fag was a favorite)
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Old 1st March 2019, 07:58 AM   #2938
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I find it amazing how suddenly I ceased caring about this story (today) after following it since the beginning.
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Old 1st March 2019, 08:08 AM   #2939
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
I find it amazing how suddenly I ceased caring about this story (today) after following it since the beginning.
Yeah, Smollett has just become a tragic meme, punchline, and worst actor example in the #LWB or maybe #LivingWhileGayAndWantingToBeSeenAsTough battle ground.

It's all so horrifying.
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Old 1st March 2019, 08:23 AM   #2940
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Well for one thing, they tend to be heavy on symbols or icons (e.g. the noose or swastikas, racist slurs) and light on actual harm to the alleged victim. The details vary of course, but the icons or symbols of some sort are usually an important element to show that the alleged crime was a hate crime.
Better than mine.
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Old 1st March 2019, 08:27 AM   #2941
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I can't believe that anyone cares about what Ellen page dribbles out of her mouth.

She went on TV and blamed the Vice president for this obvious hoax.
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Old 1st March 2019, 08:29 AM   #2942
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
I can't believe that anyone cares about what Ellen page dribbles out of her mouth.

She went on TV and blamed the Vice president for this obvious hoax.
link?
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Old 1st March 2019, 08:30 AM   #2943
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Well as long as bunch of racists get to go "Oh this is another hoax... just like that Smollett guy" the next time a cop gives a fleeing black guy 327 warning shots to the back on video, all is good.
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Old 1st March 2019, 09:01 AM   #2944
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Well as long as bunch of racists get to go "Oh this is another hoax... just like that Smollett guy" the next time a cop gives a fleeing black guy 327 warning shots to the back on video, all is good.
I disagree. Even if he's not black!
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Old 1st March 2019, 09:29 AM   #2945
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Body Language Expert
You can gain as much wisdom from a "body language expert" as you can from a psychic or palm-reader.
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Old 1st March 2019, 09:38 AM   #2946
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
I find it amazing how suddenly I ceased caring about this story (today) after following it since the beginning.
I'm the opposite, this is the type of thing that is going to piss me off when nothing happens to the guy, and in 5 years he is back to acting and people remember him as "that guy who got beat up. ..I think"
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Old 1st March 2019, 09:40 AM   #2947
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Body Language Expert dissects Smollett appearance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sH7IalJyMjk
Probably a lot easier now that everyone knows he lied. Having not gone to the link, what are the odds this expert came out before Smollett was determined to have lied to let everyone know that he was, in fact, lying?

As an aside, I’m reminded of the old quip, “I knew he was lying because his lips were moving.”

Last edited by Spock Jenkins; 1st March 2019 at 09:42 AM.
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Old 1st March 2019, 09:43 AM   #2948
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Originally Posted by Spock Jenkins View Post
Probably a lot easier now that everyone knows he lied. Having not gone to the link, what are the odds this expert came out before Smollett was determined to have lied to let everyone know that he was, in fact, lying?
I'm reminded of hand writing analysis.

"Okay the note reads: I AM GOING TO KILL YOU BY BEATING YOU TO DEATH WITH A DILDO WHILE WEARING A CLOWN SUIT AND THEN WEAR YOUR LIVER AS A HAT! Okay well he's obviously crazy and violent, you can tell via the double swirl he puts on his G's."
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Old 1st March 2019, 11:48 AM   #2949
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
That's not the element that some are seeing as highly improbable. It's the combination of elements, taken in their entirety. I thought I explained that pretty clearly in my post which you quoted but apparently didn't read.
You speak for yourself. Some (although not all) also read my post, which had some (but apparently not all) necessary qualifiers.

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Thanks for all who put forward the pattern they're seeing. Advancing a testable claim is much more intellectually brave than insisting you were right all along ...post hoc... and much more useful than focusing on only the conclusion. 'Showing the work' as it was. Obviously most actually did state reasons for their conclusions as they were making them for this case as well, but seeing what they consider part of the pattern in general can refine red flag detection.

What did you all see as elements of this case inconsistent with the false claim pattern? Which would be consistent with the pattern of general real attacks with 'hate crime' elements (I phrase it like that, because I don't want to exclude ones that have all most of the elements of hate crimes but are not officially tallied as such, like my friends who got sucker punched and called 'fag' the night after Trump's election)?
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Old 1st March 2019, 12:25 PM   #2950
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
What did you all see as elements of this case inconsistent with the false claim pattern?
I don't think I saw anything that was inconsistent with a false claim. There was a lot of stuff that was consistent with both a true claim and a false one. But one of the problems from the very beginning was that Smollett offered nothing that could help distinguish a true claim from a false one.

The meme of "pics or it didn't happen" emerged for precisely this reason. Because actual photographic or video evidence of an event helps us to distinguish between true claims and false ones. If I had seen pictures, it would have been a real differentiator for me. But there were no pictures, nor was there any other evidence presented that would help to differentiate.

A little upthread, JoeMorgue jokes (I hope) about people claiming a hoax the next time a police officer shoots a fleeing black man in the back.

But in that scenario, there's distinguishing evidence. There's a body, and bullets, and probably a lot of other stuff too. There might be some question about the cop's motivation (racist? justified? poor training? etc.), but no question of a "hoax"...

... Unless someone claims it happened but can't produce the body, or camera footage, or corroborating witnesses, etc. You can't just accept that claim at face value, without evidence, on the strength of "well we know it happened with some other cop at some other time and place, so it probably happened here".
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Old 1st March 2019, 12:54 PM   #2951
ahhell
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post

What did you all see as elements of this case inconsistent with the false claim pattern? Which would be consistent with the pattern of general real attacks with 'hate crime' elements (I phrase it like that, because I don't want to exclude ones that have all most of the elements of hate crimes but are not officially tallied as such, like my friends who got sucker punched and called 'fag' the night after Trump's election)?
The basics. Black/gay man being attacked by two white dudes(though that details was fabricated) and even yelling epithets are in my opinion consistent with a real hate crime.

Its the details that were red flags for me, though not enough for me to immediately jump to hoax, I had much more of a "could go either way, I'll wait and see attitude."
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Old 1st March 2019, 03:47 PM   #2952
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
I'm the opposite, this is the type of thing that is going to piss me off when nothing happens to the guy, and in 5 years he is back to acting and people remember him as "that guy who got beat up. ..I think"
More Likely, he'll be known as "The Boy Who Cried MAGA".
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Old 1st March 2019, 04:09 PM   #2953
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Ellen Page on hate crimes:

Ellen Page on Jussie Smollett Fallout: Hate Violence Is Not a Hoax (Guest Column)

I don't really have a huge problem with what she writes here in general except to note that she didn't look carefully at the underlying data that she cites to claim that there is "a rising tide of hate violence". In the other thread it was noted that data from year to year is not directly comparable because different numbers of police departments report data from year to year, and a large number (890 I believe) that hadn't previously been reporting data started reporting it in 2017. And of course, not all police departments are the same size.

To summarize, she starts with, Never mind the Jussie Smollett case, let me tell you about this other hate crime that really happened. (Some drunk guy at a football game harassed and attacked a lesbian couple in front of dozens of witnesses. The other fans "tackled him to the ground". story here). But OK, nobody ever questioned that that one was real.



Overall, I think she's misunderstanding the skepticism about the Jussie Smollett case and conflating it with people doubting that hate crimes happen at all.
Those who are concerned about Hate Crimes should be the first to denounce Smollett for what he did, damaging the creditability of all legit Hate Crime victims.
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Old 1st March 2019, 04:10 PM   #2954
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Originally Posted by carlitos View Post
You can gain as much wisdom from a "body language expert" as you can from a psychic or palm-reader.
The problem with body language experts is they often interpret the same body gesture or movement in a dozen different ways.
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Old 1st March 2019, 04:43 PM   #2955
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Those who are concerned about Hate Crimes should be the first to denounce Smollett for what he did, damaging the creditability of all legit Hate Crime victims.

I agree. And several have already denounced what he did for that reason.
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 1st March 2019, 06:35 PM   #2956
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
Thanks for all who put forward the pattern they're seeing. Advancing a testable claim is much more intellectually brave than insisting you were right all along ...post hoc... and much more useful than focusing on only the conclusion. 'Showing the work' as it was. Obviously most actually did state reasons for their conclusions as they were making them for this case as well, but seeing what they consider part of the pattern in general can refine red flag detection.

What did you all see as elements of this case inconsistent with the false claim pattern? Which would be consistent with the pattern of general real attacks with 'hate crime' elements (I phrase it like that, because I don't want to exclude ones that have all most of the elements of hate crimes but are not officially tallied as such, like my friends who got sucker punched and called 'fag' the night after Trump's election)?
Let's go back to the original TMZ story. In the 4th post on the first page of this thread I posted a link to a story that in turn linked to the TMZ story, which was attributed to "Sources directly connected to Jussie". The three elements in that original story that most struck me as most suspicious were the rope (already fashioned into a noose), the bleach, and the letter. To a lesser extent, "this is MAGA country" struck me as farcical. (It might help to go back and re-read that story.)

Then I pondered, what exactly were these supposed assailants trying to do, if it's true? If their goal was to hurt Jussie, why not use more conventional weapons? A knife, a club, or a gun? Who goes around with bleach and a rope fashioned into a noose to attack people with? Why would they stop with just putting it around his neck and run away at that point?

Admittedly, at the time I could not prove that it was a hoax. But I felt confident enough that a police investigation would reveal it eventually, so I made my prediction right there. I wanted to say it before the police made it official because anyone can say "I knew it all along" after the fact. So I took a certain risk. Now, since estimates are that more than 90% of hate crime reports are real, and less than 10% are hoaxes, if my thinking was faulty, odds are that I would have ended up on the wrong end of that prediction, but I felt like the clues were strong enough in this case to go ahead and say it.
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Old 3rd March 2019, 02:41 PM   #2957
mgidm86
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Almost every detail of the story seemed phony, but not that he was attacked. I did believe he was probably attacked, just not the way he said it happened. I thought it more likely that something embarrassing happened, or that maybe he started the fight, and I believe I said so on page one.

But the main problem was when it was reported that he refused to let the police check his phone and wasn't fully cooperating. That was the main problem from day one. He was evasive.

His own behavior is what earned him my initial doubt, not just the details of his story.

And hell no I don't want this forgotten, this guy is a major piece of crap. What a selfish arrogant prick.

People actually give a crap what these idiot celebrities think for some reason. One good thing about the internet is that we can see how truly f'd up many of them are. Everyone from Deniro to Madonna, Trump, Spike, reporters, anyone else who opens their mouths. If nothing else, people should see how un-special these celebrities are.

Problem I guess is that many of the people watching and listening to them are also stupid, so it falls on deaf ears. Or worse.

Humans. Yay.
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Old 7th March 2019, 08:06 PM   #2958
William Parcher
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While looking for Smollett news I found another hoax attack in Chicago. This one with a confession...

Police: Columbia College student made up Grant Park robbery story

Originally Posted by Chicago Tribune
Authorities on Thursday said criminal charges could be filed against a Columbia College Chicago student who they said falsely reported being stabbed and robbed in Grant Park, but later confessed that the attack never occurred.

Chicago police and school officials initially raised a public alarm after the unidentified student, 23, told police she was walking in Grant Park about 9:50 p.m. Wednesday in the 100 block of East Ida B. Wells Drive when a man walked up to her and demanded money.

The man that she described as being black, approximately 20 to 30 years old and approximately 6 feet tall, stabbed her in the abdomen and fled with the victimís credit card, authorities said.

She was taken to Northwestern Memorial Hospital and treated for non-life-threatening puncture wounds.

But investigators, much like in the recent Jussie Smollett case, werenít able to find any video evidence to corroborate the attack and returned to the young woman with questions, Chicago police spokesman Anthony Guglielmi said. The woman then confessed that the attack never took place, he said.

Guglielmi said criminal charges against the woman for filing a false report were possible, but added that it may have reflected a mental health emergency and said details were still being gathered...

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...307-story.html
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Old 7th March 2019, 08:28 PM   #2959
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Why would someone tell the police they'd been stabbed, if they hadn't?
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Old 7th March 2019, 08:44 PM   #2960
William Parcher
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Why would someone tell the police they'd been stabbed, if they hadn't?
She had superficial puncture wounds on her stomach. Almost certainly self-inflicted. It was a fake violent robbery.
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