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Tags Coronavirus , diseases

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Old 26th October 2020, 08:14 PM   #2401
Orphia Nay
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July in Victoria (population 8 million): ~700 new cases a day; in the UK (Pop 67 million): ~800.

Now: Victoria 0 cases; UK 20,000.


Czechoslovakia imposes curfews today.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...id-19/12816494


China is testing another whole city.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...uster/12816224
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Old 26th October 2020, 10:53 PM   #2402
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Czech Republic, not Czechoslovakia ! Slovakia is also bad atm, but not as bad. Nobody is as bad as us :-(2

Last edited by Dr.Sid; 26th October 2020 at 10:54 PM.
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Old 26th October 2020, 11:23 PM   #2403
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
China is testing another whole city.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...uster/12816224
Suspicion of China took another big dose today, with that announcement.

120+ cases spring up from nowhere? Does not fit reality.
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Old 27th October 2020, 12:15 AM   #2404
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
July in Victoria (population 8 million): ~700 new cases a day; in the UK (Pop 67 million): ~800.

Now: Victoria 0 cases; UK 20,000.


Czechoslovakia imposes curfews today.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...id-19/12816494

Hasn’t existed since 1993!
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Old 27th October 2020, 01:05 AM   #2405
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Czech Republic, not Czechoslovakia ! Slovakia is also bad atm, but not as bad. Nobody is as bad as us :-(2
Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Hasn’t existed since 1993!
I visited there in February and was reading about the Velvet Revolution two days ago.

Brain fog! Too much history.
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Old 27th October 2020, 04:21 AM   #2406
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Preliminary test results on decline in antibody levels over a few months following infection.

Declining prevalence of antibody positivity to SARS-CoV-2: a community study of 365,000 adults
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Old 27th October 2020, 04:55 AM   #2407
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Suspicion of China took another big dose today, with that announcement.

120+ cases spring up from nowhere? Does not fit reality.
When was China ever completely trustworthy on the disease front?

The standard pattern seems to be 1) the local people in power actively try to hide problems and take care of them quietly to save face and if that fails, 2) higher ups come into the picture and crack down hard on a large scale.

Not optimal, but still a heck of a lot better than our President's BS.
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Old 27th October 2020, 12:11 PM   #2408
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More evidence of reverse correlation between vitamin D levels and Covid-19 mortality.

Interesting and large differences between different global regions. Suggests a lot of other unknown C19 severity causes.

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...06.05.20123554

Quote:
Conclusion:
In this systematic review and meta-analysis with an ecological approach, we found a high percentage of COVID-19 patients who suffer from vitamin D deficiency or insufficiency. Much more important, our ecological investigation resulted in substantial direct and reverse correlations between recovery and mortality rates of COVID-19 patients with vitamin D status in different countries.
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Old 27th October 2020, 12:12 PM   #2409
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Originally Posted by Elaedith View Post
Preliminary test results on decline in antibody levels over a few months following infection.
The better news is that vaccines seem to promote higher levels of antibodies, especially in the older demographic. https://egyptindependent.com/astra-o...t-coronavirus/

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Brain fog! Too much history.
True words and jest and all that - Covid can reduce your IQ: https://945wfla.iheart.com/content/2...-and-lower-iq/
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And it might have been pangolins after all: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...us-origin.aspx
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Old 27th October 2020, 12:34 PM   #2410
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Suspicion of China took another big dose today, with that announcement.

120+ cases spring up from nowhere? Does not fit reality.

It just takes one infected, and maybe asymptomatic, person to go somewhere - and maybe not even that. In Denmark, the experts have been wondering how the virus spreads from one mink farm to the next. In some cases, it could have been carried by people, but in others that didn't seem to be the case.
Now they suspect that seagulls may have transmitted the virus. The birds don't get infected, but they found the virus on the feet of seagulls:
Covid-19 fundet på måge fra Frederikshavn (TV2.dk, Oct. 26, 2020)
Covid-19 found on seagull from Frederikshavn
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Old Yesterday, 02:14 PM   #2411
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
More on masks - a very strong correlation between low infection rates and high mask usage.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...a-chart-masks/
... but no causation.
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Old Yesterday, 02:27 PM   #2412
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Victoria has zero new cases and zero deaths.

Lockdown works.
That is really great that NZ has stamped out Covid-19. Unfortunately, that puts NZ in a unique position of not allowing foreigners inside their borders... as long as Covid-19 is spreading outside of NZ.
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Old Yesterday, 02:41 PM   #2413
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
That is really great that NZ has stamped out Covid-19. Unfortunately, that puts NZ in a unique position of not allowing foreigners inside their borders... as long as Covid-19 is spreading outside of NZ.
Or visitors continue to go into quarantine.
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Old Yesterday, 02:44 PM   #2414
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
That is really great that NZ has stamped out Covid-19. Unfortunately, that puts NZ in a unique position of not allowing foreigners inside their borders... as long as Covid-19 is spreading outside of NZ.
One of the unanswered questions is why there is some categorical imperative suggesting that which has destroyed the planet, (technology driven unsustainable human breeding and technology driven unfettered travel), should be back like Arnold Schwarzenegger.
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Old Yesterday, 02:44 PM   #2415
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
... but no causation.
There have been a number of studies showing the same results, compared to populations that don't mask up it is clear that masking-up significantly reduces transmission.

Your comment about "no causation" is meaningless. It's not a coincidence.

It is definitive, masks work!
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Old Yesterday, 03:50 PM   #2416
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
That is really great that NZ has stamped out Covid-19. Unfortunately, that puts NZ in a unique position of not allowing foreigners inside their borders... as long as Covid-19 is spreading outside of NZ.
Victoria is in Australia.

And NZ isn't unique at all - try getting into Australia or Taiwan right now. Or China, for that matter. 25% of the world's population is living Covid-free, and we're bloody well enjoying it - international sports teams playing here, full crowds at events, bars open, no social distancing, no masks, concert tours... even hookers are working!

As noted, there's this quarantine business that allows people to come in, but spend two weeks in a 4-star hotel first.
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Old Yesterday, 07:47 PM   #2417
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Victoria is in Australia.

And NZ isn't unique at all - try getting into Australia or Taiwan right now. Or China, for that matter. 25% of the world's population is living Covid-free, and we're bloody well enjoying it - international sports teams playing here, full crowds at events, bars open, no social distancing, no masks, concert tours... even hookers are working!

As noted, there's this quarantine business that allows people to come in, but spend two weeks in a 4-star hotel first.
Add Hong Kong to that list.

You have to have a valid resident ID to be allowed to fly in.
If you come from a high risk country, like the UK or USA you have to have a negative test before being allowed the plane.
All arrivals are tested at the airport.
Positive results are sent to government quarantine immediately if asymptomatic, or hospital if sick.
Negative results are given a tracking wristband and app, and must quarantine at home or in government quarantine for 14 days.
If you came from a high risk country, home quarantine is not an option, its hotel room or government quarantine only.
People are checked to ensure they don't break quarantine.
They are visited randomly, but must also test negative after 14 days before they can leave quarantine.

We had a 3rd wave spike of 120 local cases a day in August, which was caused by pilots and aircrew being stupidly exempt from the rules above, and coming in positive. That loophole was fixed, and we are now back to 0 for the last 3 days. Bars, restaurants, beaches back open.

But, even now, 100% of the population wearing masks when outside, its universal.

The other day I inadvertently went out without one (first time since January, must have had something on my mind!) and once I realised, I was surprised by just how strong my sense of personal embarrassment and shame was. Hot footed to the nearest pharmacist to buy a mask. The sense of relief once I put it back on was palpable, not because of any real fear of infection (precisely because we are all wearing masks!), but it is just not socially acceptably anymore to not wear a mask. I want to do my bit for my fellow citizens, and its no hardship.
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Old Yesterday, 07:55 PM   #2418
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'm going to make a prediction that the virus will really take off from here on, with new daily records set weekly for the next few weeks.
That's three weeks in a row, with new infection records set each week, and deaths at the highest since 22 September.

I fear things will get quite a bit worse before they get better.
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Old Yesterday, 11:38 PM   #2419
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That's three weeks in a row, with new infection records set each week, and deaths at the highest since 22 September.

I fear things will get quite a bit worse before they get better.
As I said .. nothing helps this time. Here in Czech masks alone made no difference on spreading this time. We are over 1 week of mild lockdown and still no change. Israel was successful with stricter lockdown.
Big difference is that in spring it was few hotspots .. now it's uniformly everywhere.
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Old Today, 01:35 AM   #2420
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Nice article in El Pais about indoor spreading in different scenarios:

https://english.elpais.com/society/2...html?ssm=TW_CC
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Old Today, 02:18 AM   #2421
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
As I said .. nothing helps this time. Here in Czech masks alone made no difference on spreading this time. We are over 1 week of mild lockdown and still no change. Israel was successful with stricter lockdown.
Big difference is that in spring it was few hotspots .. now it's uniformly everywhere.
Doesn't matter how strict the lockdown rules are, if there's widespread flouting of them, it's not going to be as effective as planned.
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Old Today, 02:39 AM   #2422
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Nice article in El Pais about indoor spreading in different scenarios:

https://english.elpais.com/society/2...html?ssm=TW_CC
Interesting that they only look at the school situation where the teacher is infected. They seem to suggest that a single pupil being infected will have little effect, but it would have been better if they had bothered to model it.
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Old Today, 02:45 AM   #2423
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Doesn't matter how strict the lockdown rules are, if there's widespread flouting of them, it's not going to be as effective as planned.
Depends on the rules and how effective they are. Went to a big department store a few days ago - M&S in Hampshire. Quite full but all the shoppers were wearing masks and trying to maintain distance. Passed by the restaurant/coffee bar which was full, and most people were sitting round tables talking loudly above the background noise with no masks. All allowed but an infection waiting to happen. Closing bars clubs and restaurants is getting to be an imperative now - they should have been shut weeks ago.
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Old Today, 03:41 AM   #2424
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Depends on the rules and how effective they are. Went to a big department store a few days ago - M&S in Hampshire. Quite full but all the shoppers were wearing masks and trying to maintain distance. Passed by the restaurant/coffee bar which was full, and most people were sitting round tables talking loudly above the background noise with no masks. All allowed but an infection waiting to happen. Closing bars clubs and restaurants is getting to be an imperative now - they should have been shut weeks ago.
We're nearly a week into the Welsh "firebreak".

Mrs Don reports that people are behaving well in shops and when we or I've been about exercising, people have allowed at least 2m on pavements and the like.

OTOH, people in the village are still "popping round" into each others houses, groups of people who aren't from the same household are meeting up socially and last night *someone* had a fireworks display in a secluded parking area near our house (I suppose it's better than dogging ).

So it seems that while in public people are complying, in private there's significant levels of non-compliance.
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Old Today, 03:59 AM   #2425
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
We're nearly a week into the Welsh "firebreak".

Mrs Don reports that people are behaving well in shops and when we or I've been about exercising, people have allowed at least 2m on pavements and the like.

OTOH, people in the village are still "popping round" into each others houses, groups of people who aren't from the same household are meeting up socially and last night *someone* had a fireworks display in a secluded parking area near our house (I suppose it's better than dogging ).

So it seems that while in public people are complying, in private there's significant levels of non-compliance.
Based on our experience in Victoria, you are pretty well ******.
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Old Today, 04:49 AM   #2426
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Doesn't matter how strict the lockdown rules are, if there's widespread flouting of them, it's not going to be as effective as planned.
Strict often also means enforced. And it might come to that.

If you look at European countries, all are trying gradual restrictions, doing the least possible.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...ickerSort=desc

That does not work. IMHO we should start with the most strict possible restriction, and then try gradual releasing, when they take effect.
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Old Today, 06:14 AM   #2427
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Strict often also means enforced. And it might come to that.



If you look at European countries, all are trying gradual restrictions, doing the least possible.



https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...ickerSort=desc



That does not work. IMHO we should start with the most strict possible restriction, and then try gradual releasing, when they take effect.
The "dance" doesn't do much if there was never a "hammer."
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Old Today, 07:58 AM   #2428
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Nice article in El Pais about indoor spreading in different scenarios:

https://english.elpais.com/society/2...html?ssm=TW_CC
Excellent piece that should help people understand transmission mechanics. There's also a nifty aerosol risk modeler referenced in the piece here:

https://cires.colorado.edu/news/covi...tool-available
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Old Today, 10:56 AM   #2429
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And a good, somewhat lengthy, piece from Vox on where we are right now: https://www.vox.com/2020/10/28/21528...tions-icu-beds
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Old Today, 04:05 PM   #2430
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Potentially important note on the evolution of Covid - it seems the newest strain has become dominant across Europe, which means what we're seeing now is a true second wave of the disease: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/coro...arch-says.html

Not peer reviewed.
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