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View Poll Results: When will the AE911 petition reach juggernaut strength of 1%?
20 years 2 0.93%
50 years 2 0.93%
Never 79 36.74%
Who cares?.it's retarded anyway..... 132 61.40%
Voters: 215. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 19th July 2012, 01:28 AM   #281
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Thanks for the amusing news, Oystein.

The petition seems to be pining for the fjords.
This is an ex-petition
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Old 19th July 2012, 01:42 AM   #282
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Old 31st July 2012, 02:10 PM   #283
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End of month update!

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:

May 31: 1699
Jun 30: 1701

2 new signatures in 30 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one peer once every 69.3 years. Scott Sommers asked a while ago what growth rate would constitute a virtual stand-still. This is it: Signers must be dying at a faster rate than new ones coming in!
...
The list by the way does NOT have 1701 names - it has only 1699 names, but I don't know since when there has been a discrepancy between the official count and the actual number of names.
A) Architects and engineers:

Jun 30: 1701
Jul 31: 1702

But this is misleading.
- They deleted 3 profiles of "members" who had two profiles on the list: Karim Tabbara (since sep 2009), Bryan Evan Westgate (since jan 2010) and Marshall Casey Pfeiffer (since feb 2012). So to compare fairly, I retroactively decreased the numbers per end of month, and for this july, it's

Jun 30: 1698
Jul 31: 1702

But this is still wrong: As I have noticed previously, the "official" count on the front page is too high - the full list (updated today) only has 1699 names -and so AE011T is still wrong to claim they have "1700+ A/Es"

Anyway, 4 new signers in 31 days, 0.13 per day or 7.75 days between signatures, is the second worst showing, only last month was worse. 7 of the 10 worst months ever were within the last 9 months. The annual growth rate of 2.8% is equivalent to each existing signer talking one peer into signing once every 35.6 years - the length of a professional career. That is more or less a stall.

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
B) Other Supporters:

May 31: 14,721
Jun 30: 14,804

83 new signatures in 30 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 14.1 years.
...
B) Other Supporters:

Jun 30: 14,804
Jul 31: 14,886

82 new signatures in 31 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 14.9 years.
The annual growth rate of 6.7% is the second-worst ever (that's ignoring two months in the early days when apparently some housekeeping resulted in negative and zero growth), but it's more than twice that of the A%E professionals, perpetuating the trend that amateurs have always been much easier to persuade.



To put this into visuals:



The Other Supporters seem to have reached a low level. The A&E had single digit signers in 4 of the last 5 months, so it's no wonder the purple line is jumping around more, but on a level dangerously close to zero.



What's ahead?

In most years, the summer months june-august are relatively weak, but september is strong every year, I'd guess coinciding with the 9/11 anniversaries (the month of may was strong only in 2007 and 2008, the february peak may be coincidence).



I'd expect another sad trickle in august, signs of life in september, and near-death in winter.
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Old 31st July 2012, 02:29 PM   #284
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It was seem the correct answer to the polling question is the third option (perhaps the 4th as well ).

Great work again Oystein
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Old 31st July 2012, 03:02 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by cjnewson88 View Post
It was seem the correct answer to the polling question is the third option (perhaps the 4th as well ).

Great work again Oystein
Well, since the beginning of this year, their number has grown equivalent to an annual rate of 6.25%

If they could sustain that rate indefinitely,
...after 20 years, they'd increase by a factor of 1.062520 = 3,36
...after 50 years, they'd increase by a factor of 1.062550 = 20,72

We don't know exactly where they stand right now in the USA. I estimate they have about 0.04% of all P.E.s in the USA, so after 50 years, they could reach 0.87% - close to 1%. Assuming of course that they all live those 50 years
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Old 31st July 2012, 03:16 PM   #286
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Does it matter if their members die off? A signature is a signature, whether someone is alive or dead, once they've signed something, they've given their approval of that which they have signed.
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Old 31st July 2012, 03:28 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by cjnewson88 View Post
Does it matter if their members die off? A signature is a signature, whether someone is alive or dead, once they've signed something, they've given their approval of that which they have signed.
True, but you'd be comparing signers dead and alive to the total number number of only alive professionals. If the 1700 now are 0.04% of all A&E now, then there are now 4,250,000 A&E total. In 50 years, we can surely expect that another 6 million or so university graduates will add to that number.and so this factor of 2.3 or 2.5 must also apply to the signers.

Past midnight here, I am not explaining well...
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Old 31st July 2012, 03:36 PM   #288
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Good point, Oystein. You would have to compare dead and alive signers with dead and alive non-signers.
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Old 31st July 2012, 03:47 PM   #289
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Well, since the beginning of this year, their number has grown equivalent to an annual rate of 6.25%

If they could sustain that rate indefinitely,
...after 20 years, they'd increase by a factor of 1.062520 = 3,36
...after 50 years, they'd increase by a factor of 1.062550 = 20,72

We don't know exactly where they stand right now in the USA. I estimate they have about 0.04% of all P.E.s in the USA, so after 50 years, they could reach 0.87% - close to 1%. Assuming of course that they all live those 50 years
Looks like they're dieing on the vine.
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Old 31st July 2012, 03:48 PM   #290
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True. My problem is that I'm looking at this like a normal petition. A normal petition gets run for a short period of time and submitted, so it wouldn't matter if it's signers died after the fact or what the population will look like in 50 years time. The AE911 petition on the other hand seems destined to never be fully submitted..
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Old 1st August 2012, 04:25 AM   #291
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Originally Posted by cjnewson88 View Post
The AE911 petition on the other hand seems destined intended to never be fully submitted..
FTFY. Submitting the petition might have a negative effect on Box Boy's revenue projections.

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Old 1st August 2012, 04:52 AM   #292
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CJ and Dave,

we have talked about this "submit the petition" issue before, and I think you are wrong to assume that it hasn't been submitted, or ought to be submitted.

In the USA, contrary to what we have in many other countries (I know this now about Germany, Australia and Canada; not sure about the UK), there is no defined single address to submit petitions to. Congress has no standing sub-committee, or a clerk, for petitions. The only, and correct way, to petition Congress seems to be to submit individually to each member.

AE911Truth has been calling on its members to submit the petition and list of signers to their respective and individual reps and senators, and this has been done frequently in the past. They have a team to organize and encourage this, the "Congressional Outreach Team".

I can't find quickly now an article they posted on the occasion of their reaching the 1000 A&E signers mark; it had a number of examples of AE911T activists meeting usually with staff members of representatives to hand them personally the printed-out petition with all 1000 names.
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Old 1st August 2012, 05:13 AM   #293
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Deleted - thought better of it - unnecessary details.

Last edited by ozeco41; 1st August 2012 at 05:21 AM.
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Old 1st August 2012, 06:33 AM   #294
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
True, but you'd be comparing signers dead and alive to the total number number of only alive professionals. If the 1700 now are 0.04% of all A&E now, then there are now 4,250,000 A&E total. In 50 years, we can surely expect that another 6 million or so university graduates will add to that number.and so this factor of 2.3 or 2.5 must also apply to the signers.

Past midnight here, I am not explaining well...
Oystein,

I calculated about 1.8 millions As & Es in the US based on the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics figures (2008 and 2010), where did you get your numbers from? Are they worldwide or or just US? I agree we also have to figure in those wo've died off. About 0.83& Americans die per year and that would be higher for adults.

Last edited by Lenbrazil; 1st August 2012 at 06:36 AM.
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Old 1st August 2012, 07:47 AM   #295
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Originally Posted by Lenbrazil View Post
Oystein,

I calculated about 1.8 millions As & Es in the US based on the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics figures (2008 and 2010), where did you get your numbers from? Are they worldwide or or just US? I agree we also have to figure in those wo've died off. About 0.83& Americans die per year and that would be higher for adults.
I have gone through the P.E. rosters of several US states and got pretty exact numbers of PE licenses. I extrapolated these to a total number of P.E.s by going from state populations to total population of the USA of something over 300 million. Forgot the number - higher than what I found others saying, about 700,000 I think. This includes retired licensees, and double counts (engineers having more than one license), but these aren't too many.
So I found that 0.04% of all PEs signed the petition (in most states only around 0.02%, but California, the biggest state, is an outlier).

I simply assumed that the same percentage applies to architects, and to the non-licensed engineers. So I calculated 1700 / 0.04% = 4.25 million.

Of course my assumption is unproven. Perhaps architects flock to Gage in larger droves, and perhaps the non-licensed engineers are more easily impressed by woo.



ohhhhhhh and I made a mistake by including the non-US A&E. Should have been 1285 / 0.04% = 3.2 million
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Old 15th August 2012, 09:33 PM   #296
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:

...
Jun 30: 1698
Jul 31: 1702

... 4 new signers in 31 days, 0.13 per day or 7.75 days between signatures, ...

B) Other Supporters:

Jun 30: 14,804
Jul 31: 14,886

82 new signatures in 31 days ...

...

What's ahead?

...
I'd expect another sad trickle in august, signs of life in september, and near-death in winter.
Mid-month update:

A) Architects and engineers:

...
Jul 31: 1702
Aug 15: 1703

1 new signers in 15 days, 0.067 per day, is sad indeed. Doing a quick back-of-the-envelop calculation, I think they have more deaths than new signatures now.

(Remember: That number, shown on the front page of their home page, is wrong; the list actually has now 1701 names, that's 2 up from july 31st, so they cracked the 1700 in august; they thought they had it already in june)


B) Other Supporters:

Jul 31: 14,886
Aug 15: 14,959

73 new signatures in 15 days is an improvement over recent months, when they needes almost a full month to get that many.

(Again, this number is wrong, and here it's too low! Their list has 14,999 names as of August 15, 2012 16:01, so they probably reached 15,000 today)
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Old 16th August 2012, 12:21 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Mid-month update:

A) Architects and engineers:

...
Jul 31: 1702
Aug 15: 1703

1 new signers in 15 days, 0.067 per day, is sad indeed. Doing a quick back-of-the-envelop calculation, I think they have more deaths than new signatures now.

(Remember: That number, shown on the front page of their home page, is wrong; the list actually has now 1701 names, that's 2 up from july 31st, so they cracked the 1700 in august; they thought they had it already in june)


B) Other Supporters:

Jul 31: 14,886
Aug 15: 14,959

73 new signatures in 15 days is an improvement over recent months, when they needes almost a full month to get that many.

(Again, this number is wrong, and here it's too low! Their list has 14,999 names as of August 15, 2012 16:01, so they probably reached 15,000 today)
I won't embarrass myself by trying to work out how many might have died, but here are stats on the US death rate:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm/
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Old 16th August 2012, 12:55 AM   #298
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I won't embarrass myself by trying to work out how many might have died, but here are stats on the US death rate:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm/
hmmm
794 deaths per 100,000 (per year) means that each person dies once every 126 years

This includes children. Mortality increases significantly with age, so the number of signers who die this year depends heavily on the age distribution.

Back of the envelope: A&E are usually between 30 and 80 years old. Suppose the 1700 are evenly spread over that span of 50 years. Suppose they die at 80. 1700/50 = 34 of them will then reach 80 and die this year, or 2.8 per month.
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Old 16th August 2012, 01:28 AM   #299
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
hmmm
794 deaths per 100,000 (per year) means that each person dies once every 126 years

This includes children. Mortality increases significantly with age, so the number of signers who die this year depends heavily on the age distribution.

Back of the envelope: A&E are usually between 30 and 80 years old. Suppose the 1700 are evenly spread over that span of 50 years. Suppose they die at 80. 1700/50 = 34 of them will then reach 80 and die this year, or 2.8 per month.
Cheers. So a negative growth rate for A&E professionals now?
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Old 16th August 2012, 10:34 AM   #300
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But, atleast the website is doing good!





Estimated percentage of global internet users who visit ae911truth.org:
Reach % Change
1 month 0.00067% -3%
3 month 0.00071% +0.4%

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ae911truth.org#

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Old 16th August 2012, 10:47 PM   #301
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Cheers. So a negative growth rate for A&E professionals now?
That's a matter of definition and interpretation. Once you allow your petition to grow old, without soliciting any updates of old signatures, you assert that signatures by those who in the meantime are deceased are still valid. These people were, after all, professionals who had that opinion, and their subsequent death does not invalidate the argument from authority any more than its invalidity from the get-go.

The way I see it is that the pool of engineers and architects out there now probably grows faster than Gage's petition. This is supposing that for each professional that retires, a new professional gets his university degree, and for each that dies a new future one is born. So even if you allow the absolute number of signatures to grow and the deceased be counted, the proportion of A&E signers is now shrinking relative to the total number of A&E in America and the world, if you likewise allow those who retired or died since the petition started to be counted.
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Old 16th August 2012, 10:50 PM   #302
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Originally Posted by DGM View Post
But, atleast the website is doing good!


http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d2ec6e2599.png


Estimated percentage of global internet users who visit ae911truth.org:
Reach % Change
1 month 0.00067% -3%
3 month 0.00071% +0.4%

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ae911truth.org#

Yes, I noticed that, too! They have a visitors' counter at the bottom of the start page, which has been recorded by the waybackmachine between I think 2010 and 2011, and I have started monitoring that some weeks ago, and it looks like they get more visitors now than a year or two ago. This however doesn't translate into more real support.
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Old 16th August 2012, 11:07 PM   #303
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
That's a matter of definition and interpretation. Once you allow your petition to grow old, without soliciting any updates of old signatures, you assert that signatures by those who in the meantime are deceased are still valid. These people were, after all, professionals who had that opinion, and their subsequent death does not invalidate the argument from authority any more than its invalidity from the get-go.

The way I see it is that the pool of engineers and architects out there now probably grows faster than Gage's petition. This is supposing that for each professional that retires, a new professional gets his university degree, and for each that dies a new future one is born. So even if you allow the absolute number of signatures to grow and the deceased be counted, the proportion of A&E signers is now shrinking relative to the total number of A&E in America and the world, if you likewise allow those who retired or died since the petition started to be counted.
This sounds like the Chicago ward heeler who said that just because the guy died didn't mean he wasn't still a Democrat.
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Old 16th August 2012, 11:22 PM   #304
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Originally Posted by tsig View Post
This sounds like the Chicago ward heeler who said that just because the guy died didn't mean he wasn't still a Democrat.


I wonder why Gage has not stopped collecting signatures. Keeping this going only documents how much of a fail operation this has become. A good time to stop would have been when they reached 1,000 in january 2010, or perhaps the 10th anniversary last year.
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Old 17th August 2012, 08:27 AM   #305
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post


I wonder why Gage has not stopped collecting signatures. Keeping this going only documents how much of a fail operation this has become. A good time to stop would have been when they reached 1,000 in january 2010, or perhaps the 10th anniversary last year.
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Old 17th August 2012, 08:46 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post


I wonder why Gage has not stopped collecting signatures.....
He is a lousy strategist?

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Old 17th August 2012, 05:00 PM   #307
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post


I wonder why Gage has not stopped collecting signatures. Keeping this going only documents how much of a fail operation this has become. A good time to stop would have been when they reached 1,000 in january 2010, or perhaps the 10th anniversary last year.
You'd think that he would hide the fail. Twoofers don't seem to be the brightest buttons in the box.
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Old 22nd August 2012, 04:14 AM   #308
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Two new fundraisers!



Yesterday, they started two new fundraisers, I found them today on the top of the left-hand column on ae911truth.org:


Fundraiser #1 National College Outreach

Purpose: "Support AE911Truth's ambitious effort this fall to take our message on a college speaking tour – beginning with APCA.com and NACA.org conference and showcases. Critical youth outreach."

Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 21, 2012 (61 days)
Target: US$ 9,600 ($157/day)
Raised so far: $90
Contributors: 1


Fundraiser #2 Journey for 9/11 Truth

Purpose: "Support AE011Truth team leaders Pam Senzee & Rena Petty who have embarked on a 3,000 miles bike journey across the country – passing out DVDs and talking to everyone along the way"

Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 30, 2012 (70 days)
Target: US$ 3,200 ($46/day)
Raised so far: $630 (20%)
Contributors: 3



The past 3 fundraisers raised between $35 and $51 per day, so the first target is, as usual, overambitious while the second is quite realistic, especially since it looks like someone already made a large donation, perhaps of $500; with 69 days left and $2,570 to go, that's only $37 now that they need to raise per day.


I have predicted all along that these fundraisers will raise less and less money - both per day and per contributor. Numbers of course depend on how long they run it, and one could expect that having two concurrently will negatively affect both individually, but positively affect their sum.


Here are my predictions:
  1. Both fundraisers combined will have raised less than $70/day by october 30; that would be a total of <$4,900
  2. The Bike Ride action (#2) will raise more than the College Outreach (#1), as it has a more personal and emotional appeal (two individuals, females even, doing quite tangible physical work)
  3. Thus # 1. will stay under $2,000 (only ~20% of target) and may get extended by several weeks
  4. #2 has a good chance of rasing up to $3,000, and may reach its target in time
  5. Individual contributions will average less than US$ 48/contributor - again, probably more for #2 than for #1 (the last three had 59, 45 and 52. Implicitly, I expect a combined ~110 contributors)

Last edited by Oystein; 22nd August 2012 at 04:22 AM.
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Old 22nd August 2012, 10:11 AM   #309
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College tour? I thought Gage was after qualified adults to support his cause. So what, now that most the adult architects and engineers have told him he's full of **** he's targeting young inexperienced under-grads?
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Old 22nd August 2012, 12:38 PM   #310
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Where does said money go exactly? Making more propaganda such as DVDs and flyers?
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Looks like the one on top has a magazine, thus needs less reloading. Also, the muzzle shroud makes it less likely for a spree killer to burn his hands. The pistol grip makes it more comfortable for the spree killer to shoot. thaiboxerken
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Old 22nd August 2012, 02:22 PM   #311
Oystein
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Originally Posted by Quad4_72 View Post
Where does said money go exactly? Making more propaganda such as DVDs and flyers?
You mean for the bike ride event? Good question. Some infos on that trip:
http://www.ae911truth.org/en/news-se...for-truth.html
http://www.911journeyfortruth.org/
http://www.shop.ae911truth.org/9-11-...-Truth_c15.htm "Sponsorships per mile go toward supporting the vital work of AE911Truth. Price: $40,00" "We welcome contributions for food and an occasional warm shower along the way."


The college tour I guess will have mainly travel expenses
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Old 22nd August 2012, 05:12 PM   #312
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Originally Posted by cjnewson88 View Post
College tour? I thought Gage was after qualified adults to support his cause. So what, now that most the adult architects and engineers have told him he's full of **** he's targeting young inexperienced under-grads?
Mmm...

"Give me a child until he is seven and I will give you the man"

Let's see how far he takes it.
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Old 23rd August 2012, 01:16 AM   #313
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Originally Posted by ozeco41 View Post
He is a lousy strategist?

Originally Posted by ozeco41
Mmm...

"Give me a child until he is seven and I will give you the man"

Let's see how far he takes it.
You are right - targeting foolish college kids on a budget to squeeze out the last milk is perhaps not so wise a strategy in the autumn of da twoof. If I was Gage, I'd try to tour country clubs, target college alumni, or go to Palm Beach. Where the old fools with money are. Gage wants not men but their dough.
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Old 23rd August 2012, 07:42 AM   #314
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
You mean for the bike ride event? Good question. Some infos on that trip:
http://www.ae911truth.org/en/news-se...for-truth.html
http://www.911journeyfortruth.org/
http://www.shop.ae911truth.org/9-11-...-Truth_c15.htm "Sponsorships per mile go toward supporting the vital work of AE911Truth. Price: $40,00" "We welcome contributions for food and an occasional warm shower along the way."


The college tour I guess will have mainly travel expenses
So basically they just try to cover their expenses and pocket the rest...In other words, no money going into actually getting a new investigation off the ground, just jaqing off.
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Looks like the one on top has a magazine, thus needs less reloading. Also, the muzzle shroud makes it less likely for a spree killer to burn his hands. The pistol grip makes it more comfortable for the spree killer to shoot. thaiboxerken
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Old 23rd August 2012, 07:59 AM   #315
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
You are right - targeting foolish college kids on a budget to squeeze out the last milk is perhaps not so wise a strategy in the autumn of da twoof. If I was Gage, I'd try to tour country clubs, target college alumni, or go to Palm Beach. Where the old fools with money are. Gage wants not men but their dough.
It depends what the aim of the tour is. I suspect almost all the big donations are dried up. Or at least spending time hunting for them will get Dick nowhere. He can raise dozens of them. Older educated people are much less willing to listen to his nonsense, especially in an election year. He's much better off looking for donations in the $20-50 range. A college dance student is much more likely to get energized by his talks and give their last beer money to him than is a 40-year-old businessman.

In fact, 9/11 Truth is just old stuff if you're in your 30s or 40s. If you're that kind of person, you've been hearing about it for years. You might have been interested a few years back, but now that Dick clearly can't take it anywhere, there's no way you're going to keep shelling out money to him. It's no different from any of those cult religions. 9/11 Truth is the cult for the young kids.
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Old 23rd August 2012, 10:18 AM   #316
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Scott, I haven't done any systematic (randomized, ...) probing, but my impression is that the AE911T followers are surprisingly old on average. The activists are probably younger.

Average contributions to the online fundraisers via chipin.com are in the $50 region. I obviously have no idea how much money the average listener to Gage's roadshows leaves for DVDs, merchandise and donations.

The college kids of today were 7-12 years old on sep 11th 2001. many of them were probably somewhat shielded from the images by their parents. I'd intuit that they are less emotionally attached to the events.
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Old 23rd August 2012, 03:04 PM   #317
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By the way: They have now over 15,000 "Other Supporters", even though they can't count and only claim 14,993 on the front page. The full list, updated today, has now 15,028 names, after 14,999 on Aug 15
(officially 1704 A&E, actually 1703)
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Old 23rd August 2012, 06:57 PM   #318
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A couple of posts from elsewhere that belong in here:

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I searched Facebook for pages about "9/11 truth". Here's the search results:

http://i176.photobucket.com/albums/w...f/Facebook.jpg

Yep, 88,000-odd "like" the most popular page, AE911Truth, however less than 1500 are actively talking about it.
Originally Posted by Animal View Post
88k likes on facebook - 800 Million users = 0.011%
Another troofer FAIL
So...

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
By the way: They have now over 15,000 "Other Supporters", even though they can't count and only claim 14,993 on the front page. The full list, updated today, has now 15,028 names, after 14,999 on Aug 15
(officially 1704 A&E, actually 1703)
88k likes on Facebook, but less than 17,000 have even signed the AE911T petition.

Slack.
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Old 23rd August 2012, 07:00 PM   #319
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
You are right - targeting foolish college kids on a budget to squeeze out the last milk is perhaps not so wise a strategy in the autumn of da twoof. If I was Gage, I'd try to tour country clubs, target college alumni, or go to Palm Beach. Where the old fools with money are. Gage wants not men but their dough.
So he's going back to where he began.

Next stop high schools?
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Old 23rd August 2012, 07:02 PM   #320
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Originally Posted by tsig View Post
So he's going back to where he began.

Next stop high schools?

Toddlers for 9/11 twoof. Why not, it works for jeebus.
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