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Tags David Gilroy , murder cases , Scotland cases

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Old 5th October 2018, 04:28 PM   #521
SpitfireIX
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Sorry, I should have been more precise.

The sentence that starts on p. 4 and ends on p. 6:

"This is possible because the CCTV camera in Inveraray is situated south-west of the junction between the A819 and the [route?] Gilroy was believed to have driven non-stop from Tyndrum to Inveraray, but on reaching the junction, instead of turning right and continuing directly to Lochgilphead, he turned left and headed back east towards Arrochar."
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Old 5th October 2018, 04:31 PM   #522
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Ah, I see it now. The word must have got lost when I was placing the map on page 5.

I'll upload a new pdf shortly just for the sake of OCD, but I guess the cops will follow it OK.
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Old 5th October 2018, 05:59 PM   #523
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Actually that's all wrong. The missing text was "A83". I even found it, obscured by the map, but deleted it in my confusion. I'll fix it in the morning.
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Old 6th October 2018, 01:56 AM   #524
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Fixed. When I changed "west" to "south-west" for greater accuracy, the "A83" at the end of the sentence was pushed on to a new line and went under the map. Well spotted.
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Old 7th October 2018, 11:37 AM   #525
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This is a pdf map of the route Gilroy took (from herald scotland)

https://www.heraldscotland.com/sites...n%20Routes.pdf

This pdf also shows the areas searched (search areas are marked as per key on bottom left of map)

1 - the full length of the B8074 on both sides from Inverlochy at the junction of the A85/B8074 to the junction of B8074/A82.

2 - 1.5 miles from the junction of the A819/A83 on the A83 turn left towards Dubh Loch and further along to Rob Roys House.

3 - Single track road on the west side of the A83 between the junction of the A83/B828 past Glen Croe and leading to just past Ardgartan where the single track road ends.

4 - The whole length of the B828.

5 - The whole length of the B839 from its junction at the A815 to Lochgoilhead.

6 - A section of single track road off the B839 at Monevechadan leading to/adjacent to Drimsyniebeg farm.

7 - On the A83 at Furnace (from Inveraray to Lochgilphead) to Port Ann on the A83 before Lochgilphead.

8 - Lochgilphead centre.

These areas all have one thing in common, that is for at least one section of the area accessible by single track road the soil association Strichen can be found (except Lochgilphead town centre)

There are two areas (where the soil association is Strichen) on the A83 between Inveraray and Lochgilphead.which could explain the 27 missing minutes, but according to the map these areas have been searched.

One is east of Carrick here https://www.google.co.uk/maps/dir/56...e3!4m2!4m1!3e0

The other east of Lochgair in Ardcastle woods here https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.07...7i13312!8i6656

Also the single track road (mentioned in an earlier post) off the A85 here

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.42...7i13312!8i6656

has not been searched according to the map (and the soil association is Strichen)

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Old 7th October 2018, 03:38 PM   #526
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Great find NightOfTheDemon. Do you know when that was published?

It more or less confirms what the article in the Scotsman said, but with more detail. And I'm beginning to think these guys have no sense of time. I'm also getting even more convinced that Suzanne is somewhere near Glen Orchy if she's in Argyll at all.

There's no evidence of Gilroy driving at greater than the AA estimated normal speed for any road. I don't think we can assume he suddenly turned into Stirling Moss the minute these missing time periods start. He couldn't afford to have an accident or be clocked speeding or even draw attention to himself by speeding. I think we have to assume the AA times for any driving on public roads.

Inveraray to Lochgoilhead is 33 minutes. That's an hour and six minutes of his hour and 51 minutes gone, just like that. Only 45 minutes left, during which time he has to find a suitable off-road location, unload the body and conceal it. He's be lucky to find a suitable place with only 15 minutes searching. It's bloody ridiculous. And as for the time taken to get up that forestry track to the west of the river, I mean who are they kidding?

Ardgartan is much the same. 30 minutes driving from Inveraray, and then the time to get into these forestry tracks. This operation would have taken significantly longer than they seem to think. He couldn't just drive unnerringly to the perfect place, tip her out of the car, and scarper.

I think the time factor alone makes anywhere in the Arrochar Alps really, really unlikely. Add to that that the only reason for him to have driven such a long way round would have been to lay a false trail, but he didn't actually lay a false trail, and it's completely senseless. If he hadn't been caught by the camera at the Green Welly nobody would have known he'd gone that way. He might as well have driven straight there via Arrochar and saved himself the best part of an hour.

Also, I'm bloody sure he was trying to lay a false trail to suggest he had gone into the Arrochar Alps, which is another good pointer he didn't do that at all.

Glen Shira doesn't suffer from the time problem. I could get behind Glen Shira if the soil type matched (which it doesn't on the soil map). The main problem with Glen Shira is that again it makes the extra driving a bit senseless. I suppose it's so near Inveraray that it wouldn't make much odds whether you went there via Arrochar or Tyndrum, but by the same token it's a place that might be searched irrespective of which route the cops think he has taken. But it doesn't make any sense of the Ardlui detour at the end. Going back via the Loch Lomondside road makes it look as if he has come from Inveraray on the A83 (or would have done if the Tyndrum camera hadn't been there), and Glen Shira is a turning off the A83.

I can see only three logical possibilities here.
  1. She's somewhere in Glen Orchy and they missed her
  2. She's somewhere in Glen Lochy or on the A82 north of Tyndrum where they didn't look
  3. She's somewhere in the Lothians.
Do you know what the big black arrow is?

I have to confess to being confused about the "soil association" thing. Strichen is in Aberdeenshire.

Another thing that puzzles me is that nobody has said a word about Glen Orchy for years. It seems to have been searched at a fairly early stage, but none of the bulletins or appeals has mentioned Glen Orchy at all. It's all about walkers and campers in the Arrochar Alps. It's obviously been on their radar at one point, but then they've pretty much dropped it.
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Old 7th October 2018, 04:31 PM   #527
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And another thing. All that searching in Lochgilphead. He might have done the whole thing in 27 minutes, and the entire performance up round Tyndrum and Ardlui was a red herring? That's daft. But anyway, I thought his phone was switched on all the time he was in Lochgilphead, so wouldn't they have known were he was? The phone expert daid he turned the phone on about four o'clock when he was just past Inveraray, and left it on until nearly seven, as he passed through Inveraray town centre on the way back. Nothing about a period of radio silence in Lochgilphead.
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Old 7th October 2018, 11:53 PM   #528
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This is the article from Herald Scotland from 18th April 2012 (with the map pdf)

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...lley_s_killer/

Glen Shira (cemetery) all the way to Rob Roys house does not have the same soil types as Glen Croe/Hells Glen/RABT, strangely the area was searched even though the soil did not match.

No search was made (according to the map pdf) here at Clachan power station/Achadunan brewery even though there is soil in the area which matches the soil at Glen Croe/Hells Glen/RABT .

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.27.../data=!3m1!1e3

The big black arrow points to the area just north of the A85/A819 junction which has not been searched according to the pdf map (although the roads around the B8077 may be worth a look due to having the correct soil in the surrounding area)

When you left click on the soil map on the Scotlands soils website at the A85 near Arrivain this box appears

strichen.png

The soil association is Strichen, this explains more about Strichen

https://www.hutton.ac.uk/learning/ex...eries/strichen

Another thing (regarding his route back via Ardlui) I noticed was that when he spoke to the police about 22.15 and he said that he was at Stirling and would be at Corstorphine in about 45 minutes, this would actually be true if he had taken the A85 then the A84 route.

As he took the Ardlui route this means that when he got the police call at 22.15 he was near Gartochan on the A811 but he anticipated that he should have been nearer Stirling at 22.15 (near junction 10 of the M9) if he had taken the A85 then the A84 roads.
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Old 8th October 2018, 03:42 AM   #529
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That's really interesting. There are people at work here who must know an awful lot about this, and actually we do a lot of soil analysis here, but for agricultural purposes not forensic. The trouble is, without knowing the exact characteristics of the soil they analysed from Gilroy's car and what they're trying to match, we're floundering in the dark.

I agree that the area east of Cruachan and into Glen Strae is also a possibility. Although I still think the areas east of that are more likely. (Just south of Dalmally is also in the frame time-wise but I think the soil types aren't a match.) My original idea about Glen Aray was wrong. That wouldn't have been a good choice because it would also have been in the frame for a search predicated on his having driven via Arrochar.

One problem is that soil varies locally. Our agricultural experts point out that it can vary quite a lot in a single field, although of course they're looking at different criteria. Just because the soil at the entrance to a track is one sort it doesn't mean the soil everywhere along that track is the same. So I think the soil is a guide more than a set of directions.

I'm astonished by how much searching they've done east of the Rest and Be Thankful. It's utterly senseless that Gilroy would take such a circuitous route to get there when it lies bang on the shortest normal route to Lochgilphead. (OK most people who know these roads say they'd probably go via Tyndrum because the roads are better and less liable to congestion, but just looking at a map, without that local knowledge, Arrochar seems the sensible route.) I mean, Ardgartan? It's almost back at Tarbet.

And down almost to Lochgoilhead, and going into forestry tracks. Just driving straight to Lochgoilhead from Inveraray takes over half an hour, never mind slowing down as you go looking for ways into the forest. Then even though he was probably speeding on a forestry track, that doesn't mean he was going fast.

Their theory assumes that well over an hour of his 1 hr 51 minutes was spent just driving, and driving to a place he could have reached much more quickly by going straight there. Thistle Street to Ardgartan, the way Gilroy must have gone, is 134.9 miles and 3 hours 18 minutes. The direct route is 88.5 miles and 2 hours 6 minutes. That's over 46 miles further than necessary, wasting an hour and 12 minutes.

To do the same thing on the way back is even more lunatic. Ardgartan to Tarbet is 4.1 miles and 7 minutes. But Gilroy went via Tyndrum, which is 68.5 miles and takes an hour and 43 minutes. All to avoid driving through Arrochar. What reason did they think he had for doing this?

And if you'd just dumped the murdered body of your ex at Ardgartan, and you were at Crianlarich heading for Edinburgh, explain to me again why you would choose to take a 20-mile detour that takes you back within four miles of the spot rather than getting the hell out. And even advertise your presence there by having your phone switched on.

I think the cops just decided Gilroy was driving around at random to mess with their minds, but there's a problem with that in that the longer and further he drives, the less time he has to conceal the body. The only two places they searched that Gilroy could have got to given the route he took, and still had time to do any sort of a body-concealing job, are Glen Shira and Glen Orchy. Pretty much anywhere in the Arrochar Alps takes so long to get to that you're looking at a body dumped in a hollow and covered with dead bracken or something. It's not as if he just drove into Hell's Glen and tipped her out into the ditch beside the road. It's clear he went off-road, up some badly rutted track, and that is time-consuming.

Actually, the time window on the way back is even more nuts. He was only off-piste for an hour and 32 minutes. If he went from Inveraray to Ardgartan and back that's an hour gone right away, before you even allow time for the forestry track part of it. To Lochgoilhead and back slightly more. He would hardly have had time to touch base.

Are they suggesting he didn't return to the site on the way back, but just got lost for over an hour and a half after Inveraray because reasons? I don't know what they thought he was thinking. But he was thinking, even if he made the odd slip-up.

None of this makes any sense at all.
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Old 8th October 2018, 04:42 AM   #530
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I suppose they might have thought Gilroy dumped something else near Lochgilphead - overalls, the sheets he must have wrapped the body in when he put her into the car, that sort of thing. But since there's not mention of his phone being off they must have known more or less where he was during that time.

Gartocharn isn't even at Drymen. I wonder what games he was playing. But if he wasn't trying to hoodwink the cops into thinking he'd driven from Inveraray via Arrochar, what possible reason could there be for that detour?

What's the evidence for him being at Gartocharn at 22:15, and how near is "near"? Because going by the AA timings he should have been there at 22:09, so he's again behind schedule although only six minutes as opposed to nine if he was at Ardlui when that connection was made. Up to the AA timing he should have been almost at Drymen at 22:15.
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Old 8th October 2018, 04:58 AM   #531
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I suppose they might have thought Gilroy dumped something else near Lochgilphead - overalls, the sheets he must have wrapped the body in when he put her into the car, that sort of thing. But since there's not mention of his phone being off they must have known more or less where he was during that time.

Gartocharn isn't even at Drymen. I wonder what games he was playing. But if he wasn't trying to hoodwink the cops into thinking he'd driven from Inveraray via Arrochar, what possible reason could there be for that detour?

What's the evidence for him being at Gartocharn at 22:15, and how near is "near"? Because going by the AA timings he should have been there at 22:09, so he's again behind schedule although only six minutes as opposed to nine if he was at Ardlui when that connection was made. Up to the AA timing he should have been almost at Drymen at 22:15.
I just wonder if the old market trading adage, you are better off being lucky than smart isn't in play here. As I understand it, the murder was not premeditated.
I don't wish to derail the discussion here, but the smart play would inevitably have a major data point omission surely, whereas the lucky play is unconstrained, if I am making any sense.
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Old 8th October 2018, 09:09 AM   #532
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I think that's a very reasonable question and it's not a derail.

He had to have been lucky. He inevitably had to take some risks or the body wouldn't have left the Thistle Street basement. But the major luck was in play on Tuesday 4th May, the day of the murder. He was in his office with a dead body bundled into a recess in the basement and he didn't even have his car with him. He made a pretty flimsy excuse and went home to get the car. The body wasn't discovered in that time. He got the body into the car boot. Nobody saw him doing this. He managed to wrap the body in something so that no DNA or other trace was transferred to the car. Well, that last bit was planning not luck. The body stayed in the car boot all evening and all night any nobody else (wife or kids) opened the boot.

That shows he was thinking on his feet and not in a flat panic, if nothing else. Then, assuming he did take the body with him to Argyll, he had the night to plan. I think he planned. I don't think he was driving round aimlessly, doubling back on himself, and wasting time that could be used to conceal the hiding place of the body. I think he had a plan either to make the possible search area as large as possible and/or to hoodwink the investigators into concentrating on the wrong area. Possibly both.

Obviously he still needed luck in terms of nobody seeing him at a critical stage, and there not being enough CCTV trace to limit the search area too narrowly. Nobody did see him off-road (so far as I can tell) or actually dumping a body, but the Green Welly CCTV did narrow the search area to somewhere accessible from a road leading off the A85/A819 between Tyndrum and Inveraray, which might have been narrower than he hoped.

I wonder if he used local knowledge to pick an actual spot in advance? I think this is unlikely, because who travels round the country thinking, if I ever have a body to hide, that's a good place? It's not just about whether the trees are thick enough to conceal something, it's ease of access (fences, gates) and whether you can also conceal the car while you're working.

I don't think we'll ever know why he drove as far as Tyndrum before actually doing anything. He could have gone into the Trossachs, or detoured via Loch Earn or Loch Tay. Knowing what we know now, that he wasn't clocked between Doune and Tyndrum, a couple of hours off-piste on that stretch would have left a huge search area. But he didn't.

I think, given the whole time thing, he went off-road somewhere near to his core route to Inveraray. The idea that he drove around on the public road for more than two hours longer than necessary, leaving himself with about 20 minutes to do the actual body concealment, doesn't fit with someone who seems to have been acting to a plan. He still needed luck of course, and he got it.
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Old 8th October 2018, 12:42 PM   #533
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I've been thinking. What if the clock on the Green Welly camera was 8 or 9 minutes slow?

That would make Gilroy's journey from Doune to Tyndrum more or less bang on the AA time for the section. It would also make the Ardlui ping more or less bang on for the Tyndrum to Ardlui section. It would mean that he was just two or three minutes ahead of time at Gartocharn, which could simply be a question of where the mast was relative to the position of the car. It also, interestingly enough, evens up the two off-piste times quite a lot.

Let's say the clock was eight minutes slow. That means Doune to Tyndrum was exactly to the AA time. It means Tyndrum to Ardlui was one minute behind time. It means Tyndrum to Gartocharn was two minutes ahead of time. That suggests he gained three minutes between Ardlui and Gartocharn, but that depends on how near Gartocharn he was when that mast was pinged. If he was a couple of miles short of Gartocharn then he'd still be close to the AA time.

It also means that the outwards off-piste time was one hour 43 minutes and the return off-piste time was one hour 40 minutes.

If the camera was nine minutes slow, he was a minute ahead of the AA timing at Tyndrum outbound, bang on the AA timing at Ardlui return and three minutes ahead of time at Gartocharn. It also puts the two off-piste time windows even more in synch, at one hour 42 minutes and one hour 41 minutes. This is playing in the cracks though.

Interesting. I wonder if it means anything?

Of course this completely wrecks my hypothesis that Gilroy was only three miles north of Tarbet when he turned the phone on, and this was a mistake and he meant to turn it on at Tarbet. The 8-minute-slow times put him a minute late at Ardlui which would be compatible with him being maybe half a mile beyond Ardlui when he put the phone on and pinged the mast. But it kind of works otherwise and I think the possibility is worth bearing in mind.

If he really was at Ardlui when he switched the phone on, what could his reasoning have been? The "mistake" hypothesis is looking a bit shaky.
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Old 8th October 2018, 12:55 PM   #534
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"What's the evidence for him being at Gartocharn at 22:15, and how near is "near"? Because going by the AA timings he should have been there at 22:09, so he's again behind schedule although only six minutes as opposed to nine if he was at Ardlui when that connection was made. Up to the AA timing he should have been almost at Drymen at 22:15."

Gilroys phone pinged the Ardlui mast at 21.34 and at 22.15 he took the phone call from the police which is 41 minutes later.

I set the starting point on the A82 opposite the mast near Ardlui retreat and 41 minutes later google maps shows this

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/dir/56...a=!4m2!4m1!3e0

Using AA maps with the above criteria shows this

http://www.theaa.com/route-planner/i...13%7C56.040492

These times are approximate as we dont know the exact time he passed the Ardlui mast as he could have been opposite the mast or on the edge of the masts 5km radius at 21.34 and also from the appeal the time of the police phone call is approximate.

"At about 10.15, the police contacted the appellant again."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Gilroy allegedly went to an area near to Ben Donich, Argyll, on May 5 when he had been asked to come immediately to Corstorphine police station."

https://www.scotsman.com/news/accusa...rder_1_1958637

Gilroy passed The Royal Burgh Cafe in Inveraray at 18.58 and if he did go to the Ben Donich area that would take 22 minutes meaning he would arrive at 19.20.

Spend an hour on the disposal and the time is now 20.20

Drive on the A83 east to Tarbet then take the A82/A811/M9 for 2 hours and he is at Corstorphine police station and the time is now 22.20 (much earlier than 23.40 when he actually arrived at the police station)

If the police phoned him "At about 10.15" he would have told the police he is just parking his car near the police station at Tesco Extra.

If Gilroy had disposed of the body in the Ben Donich area on the way back to Edinburgh then all he had to do is drive from the Ben Donich area and go east for 9 miles to Tarbet and keep his phone off until he gets on the M9.

The police are proposing that instead of driving for 9 miles he went west on the A83 and back to the A819/A85 to Tyndrum then Crianlarich then Tarbet, a total of 68 miles instead of 9 miles.

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Old 8th October 2018, 01:27 PM   #535
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What do you think about my "Green Welly CCTV clock 8-9 minutes slow" theory? That gets him pretty damn close to the AA timings for most of the split times with the exception of the three periods with the missing time.

It's slightly anomalous for the final leg as it would put him five minutes ahead of the AA timings at Corstorphine, despite taking that phone call at Gartocharn. Do we know if he pulled over to take the call? As far as I remember, and google seems to back me up, using a mobile phone while driving was made illegal in Scotland before 2010. Unless he had a hands-free kit I suppose which might well have been the case.

But still, M9 in the late evening, probably pretty empty, and the AA won't ever assume a journey time that would break a speed limit. 2010 was before all those road works and average speed cameras on the M9 I think, so he'd have had a clear run. The A811 was probably quiet too. Picking up 5 minutes in a journey of close to 100 miles is easily possible.

It works out neatly, and the rest of the reasoning remains intact, it just leaves us with no rational explanation for him turning that phone on as early as Ardlui. Unless he was just messing with the cops' heads by that point.
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Old 8th October 2018, 02:26 PM   #536
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Map showing the northern most and southern most edges of the Ardlui masts 5km range.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/dir/56...a=!4m2!4m1!3e0

The 5km radius northern edge of the Ardlui mast is just south of the Falls of Falloch.

It takes 13 minutes from the Green Welly to the northern edge of the masts radius (this takes into account that the Crianlarich bypass was not yet built and he had to pass the Best Western hotel)

It is possible the time stamp on the Green Welly camera was 21.21 (not 21.08) then add 13 minutes his phone would ping the northern most point of the Ardlui mast at 21.34.

If Gilroy turned his phone on exactly opposite the Ardlui mast then its taken him 18 minutes to get there and the time is 21.34 meaning he could have passed the Green Welly camera at 21.16.

It takes 25 minutes from the Green Welly to the southern edge of the of the masts radius. (just north of Inveruglas)

It is possible that the time stamp on the Green Welly camera was correct at 21.08 and he got held up at the Pulpit Rock traffic lights for one minute meaning it took a total of 26 minutes to get to the southern most point of the Ardlui masts radius at 21.34.

Therefore the Green Welly camera time stamp could have been correct at 21.08.

Or depending on where he switched his phone on within the 5km Ardlui mast radius, the Green Welly time stamp was not 21.08 but was between 21.09 and 21.21.

Yes it is possible that when Gilroy passed the Green Welly camera and it showed the time as 21.08 the actual time could have been 21.16 or 21.17. (8 or 9 minutes later)

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Old 8th October 2018, 03:02 PM   #537
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Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
Gilroy passed The Royal Burgh Cafe in Inveraray at 18.58 and if he did go to the Ben Donich area that would take 22 minutes meaning he would arrive at 19.20.

Spend an hour on the disposal and the time is now 20.20

Drive on the A83 east to Tarbet then take the A82/A811/M9 for 2 hours and he is at Corstorphine police station and the time is now 22.20 (much earlier than 23.40 when he actually arrived at the police station)

If the police phoned him "At about 10.15" he would have told the police he is just parking his car near the police station at Tesco Extra.

If Gilroy had disposed of the body in the Ben Donich area on the way back to Edinburgh then all he had to do is drive from the Ben Donich area and go east for 9 miles to Tarbet and keep his phone off until he gets on the M9.

The police are proposing that instead of driving for 9 miles he went west on the A83 and back to the A819/A85 to Tyndrum then Crianlarich then Tarbet, a total of 68 miles instead of 9 miles.

The access to these forests around Ben Donich is insane. You pretty much either have to go half a mile or so along the B828 and then miles along tracks that essentially follow the contour lines, or else go to within a mile of Ardgartan where there's an unclassified single-track road that also gives access to the same contour-line tracks. And yet they searched the lot, even the area south-west of Ardgartan.

How far did they think he might have driven along these tracks? It's 22 minutes from Inveraray to the A83/B828 junction and then God knows what you're looking at in terms of getting on to the forestry tracks and driving into the area they searched. It's 30 minutes to Ardgartan, and ditto. And that's assuming he drove at a normal speed there and wasn't slowing down to check out possibilities. Even if he did have an hour and 51 minutes (although I'm suspecting he had less than an hour and three quarters), the driving time eats into it relentlessly.

I wonder what they thought his motive was for going such a long way round? You might, at a pinch, imagine that it was only when he was beyond Tyndrum that he thought of a great place somewhere near Ben Donich and doubled back, although that seems mad. If he knew a great place he'd have thought of it earlier than that. And if he only thought about it at that late stage, wouldn't it have seemed to late to make such a detour?

But then on the return journey, there's no motivation at all to turn around and go back to Inveraray. From Ardgartan to Tarbet is about seven minutes for goodness sake. If he did what they're proposing and disposed of the body in the Ardgarten forest, he went back there by a route that takes almost an hour and three quarters!

To get right back to Tarbet, within five miles of where he's left the body, for no discernible reason, when he could have driven straight back from Crianlarich and not gone anywhere near Ben Donich again.

Was there some reason he couldn't go through Arrochar? Did he turn into a giant bat if he went there or something? Or was there some reason he had to drive through Tyndrum even though he wasn't going to stop for the whole loop? I mean, what did they imagine he was thinking?
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Old 8th October 2018, 03:26 PM   #538
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No, I'm getting my sums wrong. The time to the Green Welly on the outward journey is 8 minutes too long, but the time from the Green Welly on the return journey is 9 minutes too long again. If this was a clock error, one discrepancy would have been too fast and the other too slow.

So please cancel my witterings about that. If the clock was slow so as to mean he had only taken 17 minutes to get to Ardlui on the way back, then he would have seemed to be 8 minutes early at the clock on the way there. But he was 8 minutes late. These timings actually indicate the thing was probably about right.

So I'm back to the range of that mast. You've got the southern edge just before Inveruglas. I'm proposing he might have been at Inveruglas or slightly beyond, by 21:34. There are two masts at Inveruglas itself and one at Inversnaid, and all three would have been much better within range for where I'm placing him. But these mountains do make these signals do very peculiar things sometimes.

I remember once, out sailing with friends, and we anchored overnight just off Caladh harbour a couple of miles north-east of Tighnabruaich. We went ashore and walked along the Cowal Way to the village, with my friend having her eyes glued to her phone all the way trying to find a signal. It was totally in the lap of the gods and she found just one place on the track where she could make a call. Goodness knows where the mast was. We thought we could see one, but even in line of sight there was nothing.

It's special pleading, but I don't think it's impossible.


ETA: Of course it could depend on which operator he was using. If he was using an operator that has a mast at Ardlui but doesn't have one at Inveruglas, that might influence it. I wonder if his mobile phone operator is recorded anywhere? Maybe we should check who operates these masts.
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Old 8th October 2018, 03:46 PM   #539
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I think he was trying to indicate to the police that he went from Tyndrum to Edinburgh on the A82/A85/A84 route when he told them in the 22.15 phone call that he was at Stirling.

He would have been at Stirling at 22.15 if he had taken the A82/A85/A84 route.

In reality he was at Gartocharn.

It is unlikely he switched his phone on by mistake at Ardlui thinking he was at Tarbet.

Maybe he "accidentally" destroyed or "lost" his phone before he got to the police station and he thought (wrongly) that the police physically needed his phone to be able to track his previous movements. The police only need the phones sim/imei number and then the phones network provider will search which masts his phone has pinged.

Maybe he just wanted to cause as much confusion as possible.

i dont see any reason not to take the shorter route past Arrochar on the way back to Edinburgh. Which makes it even more unlikely that he was anywhere near the areas of the RABT/Glen Croe/Ben Donich/Ardgartan/Arrochar.
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Old 8th October 2018, 04:01 PM   #540
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The mast at junction 10 of the M9 is operated by o2 as is the Ardlui mast.(near Ardlui retreat)

The masts to the west of Inveruglas are operated by Airwave and Orange.

The masts at Inversnaid are operated by Three, Vodafone and o2.

The mast at the Bay Tarbet hotel is operated by Vodafone.

The mast 0.2 miles from the Bay Tarbet hotel on the A82 is operated by o2.

It looks like he used the o2 network.

Here are the three o2 masts with a 5km radius.

3 masts.jpg
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Old 8th October 2018, 04:10 PM   #541
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The mast 5km radius but closer up

three masts.jpg

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Old 8th October 2018, 04:28 PM   #542
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MODE O2 CUSTOMER It's a ruddy miracle he managed to phone anyone or find a signal outside Edinburgh then.
/MODE
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Old 8th October 2018, 04:36 PM   #543
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Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
I think he was trying to indicate to the police that he went from Tyndrum to Edinburgh on the A82/A85/A84 route when he told them in the 22.15 phone call that he was at Stirling.

He would have been at Stirling at 22.15 if he had taken the A82/A85/A84 route.

In reality he was at Gartocharn.

That does not make a blind bit of sense. He turned his bloody phone on. Of course he knew they were going to trace his position from that. I think when he said he was at Stirling he was just trying to stall for time, make them think he was closer than he really was.

If he actually disposed of the body on the northern route, why would he want to pretend he was driving the northern route when he wasn't? And how did he think that was going to work, with the phone on? Much more likely he disposed of the body on the northern route and then headed down towards Tarbet to make the police think he had indeed come from Inveraray via Arrochar and draw the search away from Tyndrum to the Arrochar Alps.

But the Green Welly camera showed his actual route, but nevertheless the police still made the wrong guess he wanted them to make. Now my head hurts.

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
It is unlikely he switched his phone on by mistake at Ardlui thinking he was at Tarbet.

Agreed. But I'm not talking about Ardlui, I'm talking about a fluke-ish connection when he was at or just past Inveruglas. Still not exactly intuitive, but more possible. He's wound up like a cheap watch, it's getting dark, not much more to do now, oh God these cops really sound suspicious, oh there are the houses, time to switch on....

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
Maybe he "accidentally" destroyed or "lost" his phone before he got to the police station and he thought (wrongly) that the police physically needed his phone to be able to track his previous movements. The police only need the phones sim/imei number and then the phones network provider will search which masts his phone has pinged.

He strikes me as a smart enough cookie that he wouldn't make that mistake. (Also, how on earth could he plausibly lose the phone when he went straight to the police station? Drop it in Tesco car park? We'll just go out and look for it now sir... Also, if he'd done that I think it might have been one of the things given in evidence against him.)

I think he was deliberately trying to do something by switching the phone on on purpose. I always wondered why he took the phone with him in the first place. If he wanted to go right off the radar and not have to explain himself, accidentally "forgetting" it and leaving it on his desk would be the answer. No chance of being traced. (Also, he might have got to sleep in his own bed that night instead of being on the wrong end of an all-night interrogation.)

But if he wanted to use it selectively to give the police a very carefully edited version of where he'd been, now that's a different story.

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
Maybe he just wanted to cause as much confusion as possible.

Yes, that's a possibility of course and might explain the early switch-on, but it's a dangerous course of action. Do too many random things just to confuse the issue and you may end up with unintended consequences.

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
i dont see any reason not to take the shorter route past Arrochar on the way back to Edinburgh. Which makes it even more unlikely that he was anywhere near the areas of the RABT/Glen Croe/Ben Donich/Ardgartan/Arrochar.

Definitely agree.
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Old 8th October 2018, 04:56 PM   #544
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I wonder why the cops are so sold on the Arrochar Alps and the A83 in general. Every single bloody search area is off the A83 apart from that one go-over in Glen Orchy.

We think the searches on the Inveraray-Lochgilphead section were prompted by someone saying they saw his car, and of course there's that missing 27 minutes - although if his phone was off why isn't that being made clear and if the phone was on then what's the problem?

But they've really gone to town on the Arrochar Alps to the exclusion of pretty much all else. I doubt if it's just the soil. I'm starting to think they really believed that silver car that was reported as being there was actually him. When it could have been some random tourist. That area is jawdroppingly gorgeous in early May when the deciduous trees are only beginning to bud into leaf and there's a sort of green haze but you can see the lochs and the mountains through it. https://goo.gl/maps/3ucp6ieyNR72
  • Why take that crazy detour through Tyndrum in the first place?
  • If he spent so long driving, how could he have hidden the body properly?
  • If he was all finished up and ready to go back, why repeat the crazy detour rather than just heading for Arrochar and Tarbet?
  • But once he'd done the crazy detour, why then head back to Tarbet an hour and three quarters later?
  • If he went north to draw the search away from the southern route, why did he leave no trail at all on the nothern route?
  • If he thought he would be tracked anyway, what was the whole point? Why would he imagine he could get into the Rest and Be Thankful without being tracked?
So many questions and I'd love to know what the police thought the answers were.
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Old 9th October 2018, 04:41 PM   #545
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This is incredible but still possible

"Was there some reason he couldn't go through Arrochar? Did he turn into a giant bat if he went there or something?"

Imagine if the disposal site is in the forest off a single track road between these two points (somewhere past Succoth maybe)

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/dir/56...a=!4m2!4m1!3e0

On the way from Inveraray to Edinburgh he switched his phone on at Ardlui and maybe his plan was that the police would think it was preposterous that given the choice someone would drive a distance of 64 miles from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area to eventually get to Tarbet (assuming he was spotted there after leaving Inveraray) and go west via the A83 then go A819/A85/A82 instead of driving 8 miles east (on the A83) to get from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area to Tarbet.

Because of Gilroys preposterous diversion the police came to the conclusion that the Succoth area did not warrant a search.

If on the way from Inveraray to Edinburgh Gilroy switched his phone on at Tyndrum or Crianlarich then went to Ardlui then Tarbet then the police would come to the same conclusion that he had not driven east past Arrochar from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area to Tarbet.

Any of the above scenarios diverts attention away from the Succoth area. (He chose to switch his phone on at Ardlui rather than Tyndrum or Crianlarich - dont know why)

If he was going back to Edinburgh via Tyndrum/Crianlarich/Lochearnhead on the A85 and he switched his phone on at Lochearnhead he could have thought that the police may think that he could have driven to Tarbet from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area via the A83 (passing Succoth/Arrochar which may lead to a search there) then north on the A82 past Ardlui to Crianlarich then on to Lochearnhead. (unlikely but the police would have to consider this as a possibility)

There are some areas past Succoth where the soil is correct (peaty podzols and strichen)

Like here in Glen Loin/Garadh Nam Fear (the pdf map shows that the police searched near to Succoth but not in Succoth itself or beyond Succoth in the single track roads)

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/dir/56...a=!4m2!4m1!3e0

The google street van has been to the point on the map above.

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Old 10th October 2018, 01:14 AM   #546
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The route on the A83 between Ardgartan and Tarbet is the only route in Gilroys whole journey that he has indicated he avoided.

If getting spotted at the Rest and Be Thankful was part of his plan then by switching his phone on later on at Ardlui he achieved the desired effect of the police excluding him from ever being on the A83 between Arrochar and Tarbet therefore the police search would concentrate on where he had been seen (RABT area) and on the areas of his 64 mile detour and not on the 8 mile stretch between Arrochar and Tarbet.

Royal Burgh Cafe Inveraray 18.59 plus 33 minutes to end of road near Garadh Nam Fear arriving at 19.32

Disposal time 19.32 to 19.47 near Garadh Nam Fear (the western side of Succoth is more likely the disposal site as the three lochs way walking route is on the eastern side of Succoth) (15 minutes disposal time is not long but possible)

Plus 16 minutes from Garadh Nam Fear to Rest and Be Thankful 19.47 to 20.03

5 minutes spent near Rest and Be Thankful 20.03 to 20.08 (ensuring he gets spotted acting suspiciously)

Plus 22 minutes Rest and be Thankful to junction A83/A819 20.08 to 20.30

Plus 38 minutes junction A83/A819 to Green Welly Tyndrum 20.30 to 21.08

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Old 10th October 2018, 11:38 AM   #547
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You're overthinking this. You're looking at what the police actually found out about Gilroy's movements after the event, but we have to consider what Gilroy might have deduced in advance about what the police might or would find out. There's no reason to believe he knew about the CCTV at Tyndrum or that there was any way the cops would find out that he'd taken the northern route on the A85. There's no guarantee anyone will see him at the Rest and Be Thankful.

Bear in mind that without the Green Welly camera the cops would almost certainly have assumed he drove the Rest and Be Thankful route all the way, so leaving bodies really really close to that route doesn't seem very rational.

Also, the Garadh Nam Fear is a short (and picturesque) stroll from Succoth. It's so near habitation and touristy places that he'd have to conceal the body very well indeed to ensure someone doesn't trip over it, or someone's dog doesn't get interested. But the amount of driving he would have done in that scenario doesn't leave him any time to do that.

I really don't think he would have thought up a plan like that. It's the absolute antithesis of Keep It Simple Stupid, and there are so many things that could have gone wrong with it I suspect even if it crossed his mind he'd have rejected it.
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Old 10th October 2018, 12:05 PM   #548
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Interesting conversation last night. I had friends coming to stay over en route from Oban to Yorkshire. They arrived a little bit late moaning about a hellish journey following absolutely terrible weather over in the west on Sunday and Monday. The first moan was that the A83 was closed at the Rest and Be Thankful (the usual story, a landslide, in fact I think there were about four, the road's still closed according to Travel Scotland) so they had to come via Crianlarich.

I live about 12 miles south of the Edinburgh bypass, on the A702. I assumed they'd have come Lochearnhead-Stirling-M9-A720-A792. However they mentioned that they'd approached from the south, not the north, so I asked them which route they'd taken. In fact they'd done a Gilroy and gone down the side of Loch Lomond, apparently because they were worried about possible landslides in Glen Ogle (which didn't happen as far as I know). But then they'd done the extreme south route, Erskine Bridge-M8-M74 then presumably Carluke-Carnwath-Dolphinton.

I said, why, personally I hate the Loch Lomondside road. My friend said he likes it because "it slows people down", then recounted seeing two cars that had gone off the road somewhere around Inveruglas (I think) because they'd tried to overtake and lost control. I almost said "I rest my case", but there was no point arguing about it.

But actually there was some sense to what he did because he was aiming for a point significantly south of Edinburgh, and he made use of the new section of the M74. He said nothing would have persuaded him to cross the Kingston Bridge, which he'd have had to do if he was taking the M8 into Edinburgh itself, and he agreed that rather than do that he'd have taken the A811 (as Gilroy did) or indeed braved Glen Ogle and taken the shortest route.

I can't see any particular reason for avoiding Glen Ogle, in particular when the alternative is the Loch Lomondside road, and frankly he was bloody lucky not to be held up by the cars going off the road there, or even involved in the accident as an innocent party. It just shows that people have their idiosyncrasies when choosing routes, but really, the way he came was only an option because he was aiming significantly south of Edinburgh.

I just checked the AA site and if you ask for a route here from Oban without any preconditions it actually takes you Crianlarich-Stirling-A9-A720-A702. Just over three hours. But if you insist on going the Rest and Be Thankful it then does take you exactly the way my friend came (after Tarbet) at a time of 3 hours 20 minutes. According to the AA, going Crianlarich-Tarbet is 3 hours 18 minutes so my friend wasted about 15 minutes by avoiding Glen Ogle.

I don't know why he wanted to go the Rest and Be Thankful in the first place, but there you go. And once he was prevented from doing that, he drove off the most direct route as soon as he could, to get back on the road he'd originally decided to take. I don't think any of this applies to Gilroy because he was heading for Edinburgh itself, not Peeblesshire. He drove the direct Stirling-Crianlarich route in the morning, and it's obvious that coming back Crianlarich-Drymen is significantly longer.

But there's no accounting for folks.


ETA: Jeez, look at the mess! https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/...63770641473536
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Old 10th October 2018, 12:20 PM   #549
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Anyway, following on from the account of their travel plans from Oban, I told them about Gilroy. We didn't get as far as considering the conundrum of what he was playing at or where he might have stashed the body, because the conversation veered off into what was the actual evidence against him, and how those present would approach the problem of disposing of an inconvenient corpse. The really fool-proof ways of hiding a body forever would have taken about four hours work for a strong man with gardening tools, so not really relevant to the Gilroy situation.

Anyway, an interesting story was then recounted. This concerned a wealthy landowner, I believe one of the Strutts of Strutt and Parker. That firm apparently owns a lot of forestry all over Britain but I think my friend said this happened in Ardgour. The Mr Strutt in question (I've googled this and can't find any reference to it, but it happened 20 years ago so that's not so surprising) was in his late sixties. He walked out into his own forest one afternoon and was never seen again. A major search was undertaken but no trace of him was ever found.

Then twenty years later, he was found by chance. Sitting on the ground leaning against a tree in a closely-planted plantation, actually quite near the edge of the plantation. It looked as if he'd been taking a short cut between two tracks, through the trees, and presumably felt faint or dizzy and sat down against a tree, where he had promptly died of a massive heart attack. Not concealed in any way, searched for - and presumably, as he was on foot, there was a fairly restricted radius where he could reasonably have been - but simply not discovered.
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Old 10th October 2018, 12:28 PM   #550
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My friends are both doctors and I brought up something I've been wondering about.

Gilroy ruined his life. He had a good job, he was in a senior position with IMS, a good salary, a nice house, a wife and kids. And he's a good-looking chap too. A massive , but there are plenty of those about and they don't necessarily suffer because of that, it's usually other people in their orbit who suffer.

He's now a convicted murderer, and in three years or so he'll be eligible for parole. Back into the community and I don't suppose he's likely to throttle another girlfriend so I guess so long as he fesses up to where he hid Suzanne's body and puts on a good show of remorse, he'll get out. Then what. No job, no career, and if his wife knows what's good for her she won't be taking him back and keeping him on her salary.

So what happens to people like that? My GP friend said, unemployed, living on benefits, pretty damn miserable with a chip on their shoulder, and bothering the hell out of their GP. I'm just imagining Gilroy caught up in the current "jobseekers allowance" merry-go-round, evidence of 35 hours per week spent looking for work (which he won't get) and sanctions if he's five minutes late for an appointment.

The system is hellish but this couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
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Old 10th October 2018, 03:23 PM   #551
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"we have to consider what Gilroy might have deduced in advance about what the police might or would find out."

Gilroy would have deduced in advance that the police would find out when and where he switched his phone on (at 21.34 at Ardlui) and that his phone could be tracked.

He may have thought there would be no CCTV recordings of his car on any part of the road.

He may have thought that if a tourist/day tripper/hiker stops off at, for example, the Ardgartan visitor centre near Glen Croe and goes for a walk they would probably not notice a man in a suit sitting in his car in the car park.

It is unlikely anybody would remember passing a silver car on the main road or even on a single track road with passing places.

We do not know the reasons why the police favoured the search in the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area but they must have some proof, possibly a reliable witness saw him parked up and remembered him for some reason or someone has a photo on their phone with him and/or his car in the background.

It makes sense that after disposing of the body he gets the hell out of the vicinity asap incase of the slightest chance that someone may see him and remember seeing him.

If his plan was to go to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area and dispose of the body and then hang about the same general area and assume he would not be noticed then that is risky.

One of these options must apply

1 - He did go to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area to dispose of the body and he decided to hang about in the general area and not be too concerned about being seen. (did he change out of his suit into more suitable "digging a hole" clothes.)

2 - He did go to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area to dispose of the body and he then gets the hell out of the vicinity asap and the witness(es) were mistaken in identifying Gilroy (there may have been a silver car but was it even a Vectra and it could have been a coincidence that a man in a suit was in a sliver car)

3 - He did not go to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area and the witness(es) were mistaken in identifying Gilroy and his car.

4 - He did go to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area but the body disposal site is elsewhere* and he went to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area hoping that if he acted strangely enough someone would remember him therefore ensuring that the police spent time searching in the wrong place.

(*elsewhere could be as far from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area as the A85 or elsewhere could be Succoth which I agree limits the time he has for disposal and is risky being so close to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area)

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Old 10th October 2018, 03:49 PM   #552
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[Cross-posting. I wrote this before I read your previous post.]

Let's look at this rationally. Gilroy had limited time available. He had to get to Lochgilphead, and he had to get there early enough so that the story about inspecting the football pitches retained at least a shred of credibility.

One possibility was to drive straight there (by either route), make no attempt to off-load the body at that stage, inspect the pitches at a reasonable time (say 2.30) and then set off back. The probability was that nobody would look in the car boot anyway, so it was a reasonable option. Then on the way back he could have a fair chunk of time available to do everything he had to do in one operation.

If I'd picked that option I would probably have driven there over the Rest and Be Thankful, and maybe made a little detour, possibly parked the car and taken a short walk, and maybe I'd have been seen and maybe someone would have assumed I was scouting out for a place to put the body. But I wouldn't have wasted more than 15 or 20 minutes on this. I'd have made sure my phone was turned off before I got to Loch Lomond and on again after Inveraray.

Then I'd have gone back by the northern route, turning the phone off at Inveraray again, and spent maybe three hours burying her somewhere in Glen Orchy. I'd then have gone back by Crianlarich and the Loch Lomondside road and turned the phone on again about Luss. That would have left all the clues pointing to the Arrochar Alps with nothing to suggest the A85 was even worth a look. I'd have been rumbled by the Green Welly camera, but it would have been a good plan. However he didn't do that.

He obviously decided to try to do the deed on the way there. However he still had to get to Lochgilphead by about 4.30 or it would have looked even more suspicious than it did, and given that he had to go back on the way home, it looks as if he didn't have enough time to do as good a job as he wanted to do. That's where the trade-off comes in.

If he had driven straight to Lochgilphead he'd have got there by about 2.30. He had to get there by 4.30. So he only had two hours to play with. He has a choice. He can either spend a substantial proportion of that time driving, which would leave only a short time to conceal the body, or he can pick a disposal place as near as possible to his core route to leave as much time as possible to do a good job of hiding the body.

Both strategies are reasonable, but the former is more risky. If he can really get somewhere isolated where the cops are not going to look, he could almost drop her under a tree and leave her. However, this is still not going to take no time at all, because he has to find a suitably isolated spot near to a place he can take the car, get the body out and at least put it in a hollow and cover it with some sort of vegetation. The risk is that he hasn't covered his tracks well enough and the cops do decide to search that location. Then she's too easy to find.

With the latter strategy he really has to assume there will be some sort of search in the location he leaves the body, but he has more time to do a good job of hiding it and hopefully it won't be detected. All this stuff about recently disturbed earth is of course codswallop eight years on but it was codswallop even then because whatever else he did he would have disguised any excavations.

So which option would he choose? If he chose the latter option, giving himself maximum time to do a really good concealment job, he'd either have driven over the Rest and Be Thankful and spent a good hour and a half somewhere in Hell's Glen digging a shallow grave or something, or he'd have driven up by Tyndrum and done the same thing in Glen Orchy or thereabouts.

But suppose he decided to spend more time driving in the hope of being able to dispose of the body somewhere the cops wouldn't look. Where would he go?

I contend that the very last thing he'd do would be to choose a place that was so near a possible core route that the cops could reasonably be expected to search it anyway. There's such a thing as being too clever by half, and this is it. At the very least, if he was intending to drive one route but then cunningly double back and dispose of the body right beside the other route, I'd expect to see him leave some positive signs to lead the cops to conclude he'd driven by the route where he hadn't left the body. Which he didn't do. But I don't think he'd have done that anyway.

If he's going to drive a significant distance in the hope of not being seen and successfully concealing the body somewhere that isn't going to be searched, he would have gone for a relatively quiet road that led well away from his core route. There are quite a lot of possibilities on the northern route before he got to Tyndrum but we know he didn't take any of them and I don't suppose we'll ever know why. Fewer places on the southern route but there are still possibilities, but again we know he didn't do that.

We know, if he was choosing this option, there are only three possible routes leading from the section of road where he lost the time. I contend that he wouldn't have gone back into the Arrochar Alps because it completely negates the purpose of spending a lot of time driving - it still leaves the body right on a core route which is likely to be searched on first principles. I also don't think he'd have continued on the A85 after Dalmally as it's not all that quiet and you get to Oban too quickly. The A82 north is the clear winner again.

So if he's prepared to drive for so long that he leaves himself only 15 minutes to stash the body, surely he goes for Rannoch Moor and Glen Coe? Rannoch Moor is a bit like the Dead Marshes in The Two Towers, at least that's how I always saw it. There's not much cover, but if he's only going to spend 15 minutes off-loading the body, it at least gets it well away from his core route.

But then he has to do all that driving again on the way back, and how long does he have at the disposal site? No time at all?

Honestly, given that we know he didn't head into the Trossachs and go somewhere south of Loch Venachar, or up the east side of Loch Lomond towards Rowardennan, or somewhere up Loch Tay-side, the A82 north really is the place I think he'd go for.

If he's intending to have maximum time to conceal the body then Glen Orchy or nearby (including Glen Lochy itself), or if he just wants to put maximum distance between the body and the road between Edinburgh and Lochgilphead then way further, Rannoch Moor or Glen Coe.

But there's always the chance of someone just stumbling over the body if he doesn't conceal it well enough. And driving a long distance away from his route on the outward journey means he has to do it again on the way back. Also, it's a huge risk not giving himself any time even to search around for a good place to dump the body.

Sorry, it's late, I'm rambling. But none of the sensible courses of action that he might have figured out ends up as the Arrochar Alps, given what we know of his actual movements.
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Old 10th October 2018, 04:13 PM   #553
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Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
"we have to consider what Gilroy might have deduced in advance about what the police might or would find out."

Gilroy would have deduced in advance that the police would find out when and where he switched his phone on (at 21.34 at Ardlui) and that his phone could be tracked.

I am not convinced he was at Ardlui when he switched the phone on. If he was, he was nine minutes behind the AA estimated time after only 13 miles of driving, even though he was up to time over the section as a whole. This seems unlikely. I may be wrong, but I think he was much closer to Tarbet, although I agree he was still north of Tarbet. I am considering the possibility that in the gathering darkness, tired and stressed, he jumped the gun and switched the phone on too early, having meant to switch it on at Tarbet.

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
He may have thought there would be no CCTV recordings of his car on any part of the road.

Agreed. I think that's possible. So why drive all the way to Tyndrum and circle back to the Rest and Be Thankful when there's no reason the police are going to have any idea he did that? It's a pure waste of an hour's driving, for no benefit at all. If he wants to be seen at the Rest and Be Thankful, then just go there, why not?

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
He may have thought that if a tourist/day tripper/hiker stops off at, for example, the Ardgartan visitor centre near Glen Croe and goes for a walk they would probably not notice a man in a suit sitting in his car in the car park.

It is unlikely anybody would remember passing a silver car on the main road or even on a single track road with passing places.

That applies to anywhere. He had to take the risk that his car would escape notice during the time he was off piste. Otherwise he'd never have deposited the body at all.

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
We do not know the reasons why the police favoured the search in the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area but they must have some proof, possibly a reliable witness saw him parked up and remembered him for some reason or someone has a photo on their phone with him and/or his car in the background.

Sorry, no. This case has been to court. It's certain they produced all the evidence they had that would help secure a conviction. And there were reporters there, in open court, and the reporters wrote articles about the trial. If there was any such evidence, it would have been produced, and reported on. The reasons given for citing Ben Donich appear to have been no more than that it's reachable (just!) from the space between the two CCTV cameras, and that there were reports of a silver car in the area (no more specific than that), and the soil and vegetation thing.

If you think the cops have cast-iron evidence that he was in the Rest and Be Thankful area that day, we might as well wind up the conversation now, because where I'm coming from is that the proposition is not sensible and they have made a mistake about this.

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
It makes sense that after disposing of the body he gets the hell out of the vicinity asap incase of the slightest chance that someone may see him and remember seeing him.

If his plan was to go to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area and dispose of the body and then hang about the same general area and assume he would not be noticed then that is risky.

One of these options must apply

1 - He did go to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area to dispose of the body and he decided to hang about in the general area and not be too concerned about being seen. (did he change out of his suit into more suitable "digging a hole" clothes.)

2 - He did go to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area to dispose of the body and he then gets the hell out of the vicinity asap and the witness(es) were mistaken in identifying Gilroy (there may have been a silver car but was it even a Vectra and it could have been a coincidence that a man in a suit was in a sliver car)

3 - He did not go to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area and the witness(es) were mistaken in identifying Gilroy and his car.

4 - He did go to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area but the body disposal site is elsewhere* and he went to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area hoping that if he acted strangely enough someone would remember him therefore ensuring that the police spent time searching in the wrong place.

(*elsewhere could be as far from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area as the A85 or elsewhere could be Succoth which I agree limits the time he has for disposal and is risky being so close to the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area)

1. In that case all the driving round by Tyndrum and sneaking back in from the Inveraray end, and then doing the same thing on the way back, was a complete and utter waste of 93 miles of unnecessary driving, costing him two and a quarter hours on the road. For nothing.

2. That's what the cops think he did. But there were no witnesses who identified Gilroy, just one or more people who said they saw a silver car. There are a lot of silver cars on the road. It's a popular colour. I contend there is no evidence at all that places Gilroy on the A83 east of Inveraray, and they have been looking in the wrong place.

3. Yes, I think this is the correct option. But as I say, there was no positive identification of Gilroy in the first place. Only sightings of a silver car.

4. If you're still assuming the body disposal location is somewhere accessible from the A83 east of Inveraray, no I don't think so.

If you're maintaining that the cops are basically right and his detour route was the A83 east of Inveraray, then feel free, but I disagree. For all the reasons in the paper I wrote, and noted above, I don't think he detoured that way. It doesn't make sense time-wise, or as regards the phone traces he left, or in terms of the psychology of the Ardlui detour at the end.
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Old 11th October 2018, 07:05 AM   #554
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Diversionary routes to avoid the Rest and Be Thankful much in the news today again.

http://bearscot.com/News/8346/A83+Rest+and+Be+Thankful/

Quote:
• The standard diversion route is in place as follows from the closure points Tarbet to Cairndow: - A82/ A85 / A819: Westbound Turn right onto the A82 at Tarbet and follow the road until Crianlarich – Turn left onto A82 and continue until Tyndrum – Turn left onto the A85 and continue until Dalmally - Turn left onto A819 and follow the road until Inveraray. Thereafter follow permanent signing. Distance: 58.8 miles. Eastbound At Inveraray, turn left onto the A819 then follow the road until Dalmally – Turn right onto the A85 and continue until Tyndrum – Turn right onto the A82 and follow the road to Crianlarich – Turn right onto A82 and follow the road until Tarbet. Distance: 58.8 miles.
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Old 11th October 2018, 03:37 PM   #555
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The RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe was the preferred police search area so I wonder why Succoth was not searched however I do agree that the time spent to drive to these areas is too much of a trade off.

Gilroy needed the time to properly dispose of the body and to spend between 45 minutes to an hour driving just uses up the time he could be using for digging a hole and properly concealing the body.

Taking into account that between 13.22 to 15.51 (2 hours and 29 minutes) he has to drive for 38 minutes to get from Tyndrum to Inveraray this leaves 1 hour and 51 minutes less an hour to drive to and from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area leaves 51 minutes for disposal.

Also between 18.59 and 21.08 (2 hours and 9 minutes) he has to drive for 37 minutes to get from Inveraray to Tyndrum this leaves 1 hour and 32 minutes less an hour to drive to and from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area leaves 32 minutes for disposal.

51 minutes for first disposal and 32 minutes to tidy the area up later is by no means enough time to do the job properly so its back to looking at the A85 near Tyndrum.
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Old 11th October 2018, 05:18 PM   #556
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I think so. I don't know why the police have been so fixated on the Ben Donich/Hell's Glen area, but it may be that what you said about one of the detectives on the case having a hunch is important. It's common for police investigators to get tunnel vision and that may have happened here. If the hunch was right then Suzanne is somewhere in that area and the searchers just missed her, no great mystery. But I don't think that's the case.

I'm trying to make some sense of this. I'm not saying that Gilroy necessarily sat up all night with paper and pencil doing flowchart algorithms to figure out what to do, but he's obviously intelligent and his innate decision-making pathways were clearly functioning.
  • Gilroy had limited time. He had to get to Lochgilphead at a reasonable hour (4.30 must have been about the limit of that) and he had to be finished whatever he was doing before dark.
By tracking his movements we can see that the time he actually gave himself was three hours 23 minutes, give or take a minute or two. That puts the outside parameters on the whole thing.
  • The more of this time he spends driving, the less is available to make a good job of concealing the body.
There is a trade-off here. If he can get some distance from the core route there's less chance of the disposal location being searched, and so there may be less need for perfect concealment. However there is a danger of being seen wherever he chooses to go, and even if there is no official search of the location, the body has to be well enough concealed to prevent someone simply stumbling over it by chance.
  • Gilroy chose to split his time into two segments. He could have gone straight to Lochgilphead with the body in the boot, and then taken all his time allocation to do the entire job in a single operation on the way back. However he didn't do that, he went twice to the disposal site. This doubles the off-piste driving time.
It's possible he thought he could finish the job on the way there, but miscalculated and realised he'd have to go back, but the effect is the same. Whatever extra driving he committed to to get to the disposal site, he did it twice.
  • Is it possible or likely that Gilroy would have driven additional miles simply to mislead the police about where he had left the body?
This is problematic. To achieve this it would be necessary to be observed driving while on the decoy part of the journey but to remain unobserved while on the real disposal route. It's unclear whether or not Gilroy realised that his car might be picked up by CCTV at certain points on his route, but it seems fairly certain that he couldn't possibly know where such points might be. If he relied on CCTV to pick him up driving on the decoy route, how could he know he wouldn't be picked up when he was on the real disposal route?

His behaviour on the outward journey shows no sign that he wanted to leave any clue as to which route he had driven. Phone off at J10 of the M9, on again after Inveraray. It was pure chance that he was seen by two CCTV cameras that proved he'd driven the Tyndrum route, and apparently no design of his.

Time constraints also argue against driving purely to decoy the police to the wrong location. He doesn't have time to burn, and skimping on the concealing of the body to fit in additional driving miles where he hopes he'll be tracked doesn't seem like a rational choice.
  • What about driving by one route then doubling back to plant the body close to the other possible core route?
This seems to be the worst of both worlds. The body is close to a core route so there is a good chance a search will be made in that area. And yet extra driving time has been used up, reducing the time to conceal the body. Doing this while leaving no clues behind to show which route was actually driven isn't sensible by any reading of the situation.

I really believe that if he'd intended to dispose of the body somewhere in the Arrochar Alps he would just have driven there directly, used the time he had to get right off the road somewhere he wouldn't be observed, and make a good job of concealing the body. There's nothing wrong with that plan, it's just that it's not what he did.
  • If the body was disposed of in the Arrochar Alps, what would be the explanation for the Ardlui detour?
There isn't one. In practical terms it draws the attention of the investigators to that area, by going right past it, and makes a nonsense of driving the 64-mile circle via Dalmally. In psychological terms it's even worse - why would a murderer choose to take a detour back almost to where he'd left the body, after taking a long detour that took him well away from the area?

The Ardlui detour doesn't have an obvious explanation apart from the possibility that he mistakenly switched his phone on before he got to Tarbet, when his plan was to switch it on at Tarbet. But if makes particularly bad sense in the context of a Ben Donich/Glen Croe disposal site.

I think she's north (or north-west) of Tyndrum.
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Old 12th October 2018, 12:33 PM   #557
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Scrolling on google street view along the junction of the A82/A85 west from Tyndrum to the junction of the B8074/A85 these are the off road entry points
(I have excluded the tracks with gates and the tracks which lead to properties)

1 - Track which splits into two - the first track on the left being gated. Cannot tell from street view if the other track is ungated but it leads into a wooded area, the only way to find out is to go there.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.44...7i13312!8i6656

2 - Track leading to forest, looks ungated, bends to left then right into forest, worth a look.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.42...7i13312!8i6656

Thats all on this stretch of road and if one of these two tracks is the disposal site there is no wasted time used driving off the direct route from Tyndrum to Inveraray.(and more time left for digging a hole)

Will look later on B8074/A85 junction to B8074/A82 junction and B8074/A82 junction to A82/A85 junction.

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Old 13th October 2018, 12:01 AM   #558
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Do you know what the big black arrow is? (Rolfes post of 7th October 2018 at 11.38pm)

The big black arrow is on the map pdf from here

https://www.heraldscotland.com/sites...n%20Routes.pdf

Can be explained in this picture. https://deadlinenews.photoshelter.co...000BIfYx5PF1oY

stern faced.jpg

For the sake of accuracy, the times on my previous post from 11th October were a bit out

"Taking into account that between 13.22 to 15.51 (2 hours and 29 minutes) he has to drive for 38 minutes to get from Tyndrum to Inveraray this leaves 1 hour and 51 minutes less an hour to drive to and from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area leaves 51 minutes for disposal.

Also between 18.59 and 21.08 (2 hours and 9 minutes) he has to drive for 37 minutes to get from Inveraray to Tyndrum this leaves 1 hour and 32 minutes less an hour to drive to and from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area leaves 32 minutes for disposal.

51 minutes for first disposal and 32 minutes to tidy the area up later is by no means enough time to do the job properly so its back to looking at the A85 near Tyndrum."

It should read

"Taking into account that between 13.23 to 15.51 (2 hours and 28 minutes) he has to drive for 38 minutes to get from Tyndrum to Inveraray this leaves 1 hour and 50 minutes less an hour to drive to and from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area leaves 50 minutes for disposal.

Also between 18.58 and 21.08 (2 hours and 10 minutes) he has to drive for 37 minutes to get from Inveraray to Tyndrum this leaves 1 hour and 33 minutes less an hour to drive to and from the RABT/Ben Donich/Glen Croe area leaves 33 minutes for disposal.

50 minutes for first disposal and 33 minutes to tidy the area up later is by no means enough time to do the job properly so its back to looking at the A85 near Tyndrum."

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Old 13th October 2018, 09:16 AM   #559
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Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
Scrolling on google street view along the junction of the A82/A85 west from Tyndrum to the junction of the B8074/A85 these are the off road entry points
(I have excluded the tracks with gates and the tracks which lead to properties)

1 - Track which splits into two - the first track on the left being gated. Cannot tell from street view if the other track is ungated but it leads into a wooded area, the only way to find out is to go there.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.44...7i13312!8i6656

We looked at that before - the track leading straight up the hill was gated in March 2010.

https://goo.gl/maps/a3AA3KAxzcH2

However, since we can't tell from the image if the gates were locked, I'm not discounting this location. (I also wonder if some of the damage done to Gilroy's car might have occurred when he drove round a gate somewhere.)

The track leading straight up the hill is quite short, nevertheless it might be enough if it wasn't searched. The track to the right is the old Wade's Road and goes right through the forest parallel with the A85. That would be my pick if there was a way round that gate.

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.42...7i13312!8i6656

Thats all on this stretch of road and if one of these two tracks is the disposal site there is no wasted time used driving off the direct route from Tyndrum to Inveraray.(and more time left for digging a hole)

That again leads on to the Wade's Road and is again a prime spot.

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
Will look later on B8074/A85 junction to B8074/A82 junction and B8074/A82 junction to A82/A85 junction.

I think that former area was searched, but that doesn't mean she couldn't be there. There are many stories of bodies turning up in areas that have been searched, particularly forests.
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Old 13th October 2018, 01:14 PM   #560
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https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.44...7i13312!8i6656

The part of the track (straight on then it bends to the left) was gated in March 2009 to July 2011. It is not known if the track was gated from July 2011 to August 2015 but since September 2015 the gate has been removed.

This Ordnance Survey image shows that there were tree felling operations beyond the gate which would explain why the gate was there between March 2009 and July 2011.

os felling.jpg

If Gilroy had driven past this gate prior to May 2010 (on a previous trip to inspect Lochgilphead School) and knew the tree felling operations were ongoing then this would have prevented Gilroy from attempting to access this area.

"However, since we can't tell from the image if the gates were locked, I'm not discounting this location. (I also wonder if some of the damage done to Gilroy's car might have occurred when he drove round a gate somewhere.)"

There is a risk that there is some activity beyond any gate and a risk of grounding his car if Gilroy drove around the gate.

(I will need to check google street view on this stretch of the A85 again as I discounted some tracks with gates but did not check if the gates were there in May 2010.)

Last edited by NightOfTheDemon; 13th October 2018 at 02:55 PM.
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