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Tags Emmanuel Macron , France elections , France politics , Marine Le Pen , political predictions , political speculation

View Poll Results: Who will win the 2017 French presidential election?
Nathalie Arthaud* 0 0%
François Asselineau* 0 0%
Jacques Cheminade* 0 0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0 0%
François Fillon 2 6.45%
Benoît Hamon 0 0%
Jean Lassalle 0 0%
Marine Le Pen 7 22.58%
Emmanuel Macron* 16 51.61%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon* 0 0%
Philippe Poutou* 0 0%
On planet X, Trump wins all elections 6 19.35%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 18th April 2017, 02:25 AM   #121
Aepervius
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I am thankful that the system in France has two rounds. At least in the second round you can vote for the least "worst candidate". At this point I think it will be a toss out between Mélenchon and Macron. I am hoping for Macron rather than Mélenchron, sounds "less bad".

As for the PS, having somebody utterly smeared by a scandal for the election... That is stupid. They may have had a better chance if they had a new candidate instead. I certainly would not vote for somebody which is known to do such things, no matter what my political feelings are. Corrupt is corrupt.
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Old 18th April 2017, 03:11 AM   #122
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Macron is increasingly sounding like a consummate vacuous politico, much to my chagrin. Not that I don't still prefer him to the other leading candidates, but I now have to also hope that somehow he manages to address the general alienation of voters by directly addressing their most pressing concerns with some good-faith efforts/education. The worst outcome would be a horrible marketing-driven presidency-as-usual that then drives Frexit feelings to a fever pitch.
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Old 18th April 2017, 04:35 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's good news, very good news. It will drive the non-retards away from him, he's the second worst choice, behind LePen by a statistical hair. Ask him how he comments the development of Venezuela and their pawning of state assets before the elections if you have the chance, half a percentage point could be crucial.

McHrozni
As far I know Mélechon denies those things are happening in Venezuela and claims this has been invented by the media...

As Macron explained in a meeting yesterday with Mélenchon you will get Cuba without the sun or Venezuela without the petroleum...
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Old 18th April 2017, 04:37 AM   #124
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
I am thankful that the system in France has two rounds. At least in the second round you can vote for the least "worst candidate". At this point I think it will be a toss out between Mélenchon and Macron. I am hoping for Macron rather than Mélenchron, sounds "less bad".

As for the PS, having somebody utterly smeared by a scandal for the election... That is stupid. They may have had a better chance if they had a new candidate instead. I certainly would not vote for somebody which is known to do such things, no matter what my political feelings are. Corrupt is corrupt.
I am a little bit lost here. There is no scandal around Benoît Hamon who is the PS candidate. Do you not make a confusion with François Fillon, the LR candidate?
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Old 18th April 2017, 04:39 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
As far I know Mélechon denies those things are happening in Venezuela and claims this has been invented by the media...
That's not your average level stupid. This is ... advanced stupid.

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Old 18th April 2017, 04:52 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's not your average level stupid. This is ... advanced stupid.

McHrozni
When you know that Mélenchon still claims that the only reason of the war in Syria is due to an oïl and gas pipeline project that was planned to be build in Syria you have it all.

By the way this project never went further than (very) preliminary talks and no concrete project has ever been issued.
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Old 18th April 2017, 05:00 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
When you know that Mélenchon still claims that the only reason of the war in Syria is due to an oïl and gas pipeline project that was planned to be build in Syria you have it all.

By the way this project never went further than (very) preliminary talks and no concrete project has ever been issued.


He'll probably claim US orchestrated 9/11 to build a pipeline through Afghanistan if asked.

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Old 18th April 2017, 05:17 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post


He'll probably claim US orchestrated 9/11 to build a pipeline through Afghanistan if asked.

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I think he might stop just before going that far...
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Old 18th April 2017, 05:19 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
I think he might stop just before going that far...
Syria pipeline and civil war thing is no less retarded.

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Old 18th April 2017, 05:32 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Syria pipeline and civil war thing is no less retarded.

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For sure...

Just as claiming that the Arab spring has been driven from abroad, by the CIA and the Mossad, of course...

Last edited by Degeneve; 18th April 2017 at 05:35 AM.
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Old 19th April 2017, 01:36 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
Macron is increasingly sounding like a consummate vacuous politico, much to my chagrin. Not that I don't still prefer him to the other leading candidates, but I now have to also hope that somehow he manages to address the general alienation of voters by directly addressing their most pressing concerns with some good-faith efforts/education. The worst outcome would be a horrible marketing-driven presidency-as-usual that then drives Frexit feelings to a fever pitch.
Let's give Macron some slack in the run up to the first round.

The unexpected rise of Mélenchon has somewhat destabilized his first round strategy. He thought that he was the only candidate acceptable to many on the left with any chance to get into the second round. Therefore he catered mostly to the center right voters until the last few weeks.

Suddenly Mélenchon appears as another possible "vote utile" for the left leaning voters. So now Macron has to balance his act, and yes, that sound rather vacuous.

But I surely agree with your main point.
The danger with Macron, if elected, is that he won't be able to seriously address the structural problems facing France, due to lack of support in parliament.
If that happens, next time Le Pen might be a serious contender in the second round.
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Old 19th April 2017, 01:44 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
But I surely agree with your main point.
The danger with Macron, if elected, is that he won't be able to seriously address the structural problems facing France, due to lack of support in parliament.
If that happens, next time Le Pen might be a serious contender in the second round.
This is a blessing in disguise. If Marcon is elected and pushes for sensible reforms of the structural problems facing France, he has a chance of achieving support from the parliament so precisely this scenario won't happen. It requires a marginal amount candor from French politicians, I'm sure they're capable of that.

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Old 19th April 2017, 03:53 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
This is a blessing in disguise. If Marcon is elected and pushes for sensible reforms of the structural problems facing France, he has a chance of achieving support from the parliament so precisely this scenario won't happen. It requires a marginal amount candor from French politicians, I'm sure they're capable of that.

McHrozni
If Macron is elected, what he will be able to do will depend on the result of the general election which will take place in June. By the way the same conclusion can be drawn for every other candidate.

Right now everybody focuses on the presidential election but in my view what will happen in June appears to be even murkier. So far we cannot exclude that the elected president might have to govern with a majority of another political wing.
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Old 19th April 2017, 04:45 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Right now everybody focuses on the presidential election but in my view what will happen in June appears to be even murkier. So far we cannot exclude that the elected president might have to govern with a majority of another political wing.
That's not bad per se, it happens all the time in US and is seen as an advantage of the presidential system over the parliamentary one. It will make reforms more difficult, but anything that will be done will have wide support. I just hope French politicians are mature enough to see obstructing one another will bring them doom.

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Old 19th April 2017, 08:24 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's not bad per se, it happens all the time in US and is seen as an advantage of the presidential system over the parliamentary one. It will make reforms more difficult, but anything that will be done will have wide support. I just hope French politicians are mature enough to see obstructing one another will bring them doom.

McHrozni
(bolding mine)
A hope I hope is warranted, of course.

The polls these last days don't move much, but they still point to Macron reaching the second round. Mélenchon seems to have lost momentum (but, if he gets 18% or more as he now has in the polls, that would still be an incredibly high score for his political family).

Macron - Le Pen or Macron - Fillon in the second round? Both still seem possible.

And maybe the polls are totally wrong, and we get some catastrophic (Le Pen - Mélenchon) or semi-catastrophic (Le Pen - Fillon, Mélenchon - Fillon) second round.
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Old 19th April 2017, 08:33 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
(bolding mine)
And maybe the polls are totally wrong, and we get some catastrophic (Le Pen - Mélenchon) or semi-catastrophic (Le Pen - Fillon, Mélenchon - Fillon) second round.
My big fear now is a run-off between Le Pen and Mélenchon. The deeply unpleasant against the deeply deluded... either would be catastrophic for the country.

If it came to that I think I'd have to steel myself and vote Mélenchon, on the grounds that economically insane is better than ethically appalling, but it would be with a similar heavy heart to the way my grandparents' generation voted Chirac in the second round in 2002.

I'm a long way from being a fan of Fillon but I'd have less trouble voting for him in a run-off on the grounds that he was a vaguely rational prime minister.
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Old 19th April 2017, 08:39 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by malbui View Post
My big fear now is a run-off between Le Pen and Mélenchon. The deeply unpleasant against the deeply deluded... either would be catastrophic for the country.

If it came to that I think I'd have to steel myself and vote Mélenchon, on the grounds that economically insane is better than ethically appalling, but it would be with a similar heavy heart to the way my grandparents' generation voted Chirac in the second round in 2002.

I'm a long way from being a fan of Fillon but I'd have less trouble voting for him in a run-off on the grounds that he was a vaguely rational prime minister.
Yes, I feel the same, although not a French citizen.
For me it is Macron>Fillon>Mélenchon>Le Pen, for the reasons you gave.
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Old 19th April 2017, 08:51 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Yes, I feel the same, although not a French citizen.
For me it is Macron>Fillon>Mélenchon>Le Pen, for the reasons you gave.
^Me, too.
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Old 19th April 2017, 12:50 PM   #139
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Some commentators are saying that the Fifth Republic might be headed for collapse, with the Sixth Republic to follow.
Well, 60 years seems to be the maximum for a Republic in France.....
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Old 20th April 2017, 11:31 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
(bolding mine)
A hope I hope is warranted, of course.

The polls these last days don't move much, but they still point to Macron reaching the second round. Mélenchon seems to have lost momentum (but, if he gets 18% or more as he now has in the polls, that would still be an incredibly high score for his political family).

Macron - Le Pen or Macron - Fillon in the second round? Both still seem possible.

And maybe the polls are totally wrong, and we get some catastrophic (Le Pen - Mélenchon) or semi-catastrophic (Le Pen - Fillon, Mélenchon - Fillon) second round.
Well, with 30% of electorate being undecided, any scenario is possible, including Lassalle winning in the first round. He's currently polling at about 1%, but that plus all undecided gives him the first place, easy. While this is hypothetically possible it's so unlikely it's not worth glossing over.

The real question is who is over- and who is under-performing in polls and to what extent.

Yesterdays' shooting in Paris gave a few extra votes to LePen. I hope they mainly came from supporters of Mechelon.

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Old 21st April 2017, 01:28 AM   #141
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Probably not. If Le Pen wins extra votes because of yesterday shooting they come probably from the undecided who have finally made a choice or even from supporters of Fillon or even Macron.
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Old 21st April 2017, 01:42 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Probably not. If Le Pen wins extra votes because of yesterday shooting they come probably from the undecided who have finally made a choice or even from supporters of Fillon or even Macron.
The hope dies last though.

Mechelon has supposedly been stealing votes from LePen in recent weeks. The only significant difference between those two clowns is in their attitude towards Muslims. It is to be expected that some of those swing voters will move from Mechelon back to LePen as a result of a yet another Islamic terrorist attack.

The result will not be significant, that's for sure.

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Old 21st April 2017, 02:48 AM   #143
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Difficult to assess the impact of yesterday's shooting: hopefully the French are wiser than some fear.

Yesterday evening France 2 had a weird replacement for their cancelled debate.
Each candidate was questioned in turn for 15 minutes. After that, they all appeared to give a closing statement of 2 1/2 minutes.

I didn't watch it. After scanning over the transcripts I apparently didn't miss much.

One nice phrase of, again, Poutou.
Asked if he had any regrets about the campaign, he answered: "Il y a eu un débat le 4 avril et on n’a pas été fichus d’en faire un deuxième, ça manque de ne pas pouvoir dire à un Fillon, à une Le Pen que ce sont des menteurs et des voleurs."
Translated: "There was a debate on April 4th, and they weren't able to hold a second one, I missed being able to tell to Fillon and Le Pen that they are liars and thieves."
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Old 21st April 2017, 05:49 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Some commentators are saying that the Fifth Republic might be headed for collapse, with the Sixth Republic to follow.
Well, 60 years seems to be the maximum for a Republic in France.....
Where are they taking this from?
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Old 21st April 2017, 11:52 PM   #145
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If Le Pen does not win, France is done.
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Old 22nd April 2017, 12:24 AM   #146
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
If Le Pen does not win, France is done.
You wish...
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Old 22nd April 2017, 10:41 AM   #147
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
If Le Pen does not win, France is done.
Sure, how could a nation like France survive if it is not led by a extreme-right, hate mongering, racist, anti semitic, dishonnest and hypocritical politician like Le Pen.
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Old 22nd April 2017, 11:03 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
If Le Pen does not win, France is done.
We live in stupid times.
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Old 22nd April 2017, 11:50 PM   #149
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
If Le Pen does win, France is done.
FTFY.

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Old 22nd April 2017, 11:51 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
FTFY.

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And not just France...
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Old 22nd April 2017, 11:59 PM   #151
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I'm just off to do my duty. I'll be stopping at the boulangerie on my way back if anyone wants anything.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 02:07 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
FTFY.

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What I wouldn't give to be able to hop in a time machine with you so we could go check out France in 50 years under the two different scenarios.

I think I could turn most white liberals into out and out fascist ultra-racists in 5 minutes flat with such a device.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 04:30 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
What I wouldn't give to be able to hop in a time machine with you so we could go check out France in 50 years under the two different scenarios.

I think I could turn most white liberals into out and out fascist ultra-racists in 5 minutes flat with such a device.
You're making damn too many assumptions that are at best at odds with reality.

ETA: You are professing just pure belief in false narrative that has no basis in reality and is at odds with known facts. As such belief can be described as purely illogical. And furthermore it is being weakly masked by implausible hypothetical activity with full presumption of events fully ignoring incontinent alternatives that are as likely with candidates like Le Pen.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 05:39 AM   #154
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Too sick (cold) to go to vote (vote booth is 40km away) sop I'll vote on the second round.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 05:45 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
What I wouldn't give to be able to hop in a time machine with you so we could go check out France in 50 years under the two different scenarios.

I think I could turn most white liberals into out and out fascist ultra-racists in 5 minutes flat with such a device.
No but we can take the 40 years time machine. See people have been pretending like you that there would be sharia zone and that France "would be conquered by their uterus" [of the immigrant] for the last 40 years.

Guess what ? My time machine (which I call : projecting trend from the past) tells me it will be as bovine excrement for the next 40 years as it was for the last 40.

*I* have lived in banlieu nord where there was a high concentration of Moslem, in fact not far away from where a terrorist exploded himself during a raid. And guess what again ? You could not be more wrong. The ideal of france are liberté , égalité , fraternité, not "liberté si caucassian, égalité si caucassian, fraternité quand on veut". It is people like YOU which want to tranform france into the shadow itself.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 07:17 AM   #156
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
No but we can take the 40 years time machine. See people have been pretending like you that there would be sharia zone and that France "would be conquered by their uterus" [of the immigrant] for the last 40 years.

Guess what ? My time machine (which I call : projecting trend from the past) tells me it will be as bovine excrement for the next 40 years as it was for the last 40.

*I* have lived in banlieu nord where there was a high concentration of Moslem, in fact not far away from where a terrorist exploded himself during a raid. And guess what again ? You could not be more wrong. The ideal of france are liberté , égalité , fraternité, not "liberté si caucassian, égalité si caucassian, fraternité quand on veut". It is people like YOU which want to tranform france into the shadow itself.
People 40 years ago were using hyperbole to try to get it fixed before it went beyond the point of solving it peacefully. It is beyond that point now.

Perhaps some really did believe it would be that bad, that fast. I don't know. What I do know is that these things take time, but it is absolutely unfolding as they said then. Just slower. Though frankly I have no doubt that a large number of them who said it then understood, and stated, that it would take this sort of time. Again... they sought to stir corrective action by framing it as an immediate threat. Liberals do this sort of threat exaggeration and time compression on their issues too like gun control, police stuff, environmental stuff, etc.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 09:33 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
Too sick (cold) to go to vote (vote booth is 40km away) sop I'll vote on the second round.
Sorry to hear that, wish you a quick recovery.

Turnout at 17h was about 1% lower than in 2012.

Harris Interactive projects that the final turnout will be 78.5% (was 79.5% in 2012).
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Last edited by Firestone; 23rd April 2017 at 09:37 AM.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 11:01 AM   #158
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First results in line with polls: Macron and Le Pen in second round.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 11:07 AM   #159
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
First results in line with polls: Macron and Le Pen in second round.
Good. Macro as a centrist has a chance to rally left and right, at least the reasonable/rational part of both side, and his politics are not far fetched.

Last edited by Aepervius; 23rd April 2017 at 11:10 AM.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 11:09 AM   #160
Aepervius
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
People 40 years ago were using hyperbole to try to get it fixed before it went beyond the point of solving it peacefully. It is beyond that point now.

Perhaps some really did believe it would be that bad, that fast. I don't know. What I do know is that these things take time, but it is absolutely unfolding as they said then. Just slower. Though frankly I have no doubt that a large number of them who said it then understood, and stated, that it would take this sort of time. Again... they sought to stir corrective action by framing it as an immediate threat. Liberals do this sort of threat exaggeration and time compression on their issues too like gun control, police stuff, environmental stuff, etc.
You know, if you had an argument , you would have pointed out a trend which started 40 years ago and increase linearly or exponentially.

But you can't since such a trend does not exists. Even terrorism being stochastic as it is does not show any trend.

And that is why you keep typing your rhetoric, without any evidence. It is your last refuge, since you have no numbers to back you up.
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