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Tags Emmanuel Macron , France elections , France politics , Marine Le Pen , political predictions , political speculation

View Poll Results: Who will win the 2017 French presidential election?
Nathalie Arthaud* 0 0%
François Asselineau* 0 0%
Jacques Cheminade* 0 0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0 0%
François Fillon 2 6.45%
Benoît Hamon 0 0%
Jean Lassalle 0 0%
Marine Le Pen 7 22.58%
Emmanuel Macron* 16 51.61%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon* 0 0%
Philippe Poutou* 0 0%
On planet X, Trump wins all elections 6 19.35%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 20th March 2017, 01:35 AM   #1
Firestone
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Who will win the 2017 French presidential election?

Five weeks before the first round, this year's French presidential election promises to be like none before it.

For the first time in the history of the 5th republic, it may well be that the two main political blocks will both be thrown out during the first round.
Current polling indeed has far right Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron as qualified for the the second round.
And, again according to current polling, Macron is expected to win the second round.

However, this election has known a number of surprising developments so far, who knows what can still happen in the coming five weeks.

Who do you expect to win this election?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French...017#Candidates
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Old 20th March 2017, 04:04 AM   #2
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First round is a tossup between Marcon and LePen, the latter is trumped by just about any candidate in a head to head battle of the second round.

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Old 20th March 2017, 04:09 AM   #3
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I'd take the Neoliberal Banker who is worshipped by the media for 500, Alex.
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Old 20th March 2017, 04:36 AM   #4
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How much time to Donald, Vladi and Marine have to arrange a nice terrorist attack?
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Old 20th March 2017, 04:52 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
How much time to Donald, Vladi and Marine have to arrange a nice terrorist attack?
The election is scheduled for April 17 and May 7.
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Old 20th March 2017, 04:53 AM   #6
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I would bet on Macron but right now anything is still possible, even Asselineau, the "Frexit" candidate.
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Old 20th March 2017, 05:34 AM   #7
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Given the field of candidates, I hope Macron wins.

But I think Fillon still has a chance to qualify for the second round, if he manages to shift the attention from his sleazy behavior to his conservative program.

And as Foolmewunz alluded to, Vlad and his minions may yet surprise us.
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Old 20th March 2017, 05:36 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
How much time to Donald, Vladi and Marine have to arrange a nice terrorist attack?
Just under 4 weeks, but the two tier voting system protects France from many acts of foolishness.

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Old 20th March 2017, 06:10 AM   #9
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I hope it's Macron; best in the field IMO. For the last few weeks I've been timing dinner to coincide with the Debate segment on France24's English cable channel (7PM Mon-Thur). François Picard (mon capitain?) is an affable host, he lets the debate reach near social media levels, and the show has an excellent young British fellow who gives the best news summary I've ever heard anywhere to top off the show. What a refreshing change from watching non-stop Trump on CNN and others, or Euronews revolving snippets. Since they are on a budget, there are many second tier guests, which is shaping up as a fine way to get out of media echo chambers.
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Old 20th March 2017, 08:57 AM   #10
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This evening TF1 will air the first debate of the general campaign. The five candidates leading in the polls (Macron, Le Pen, Fillon, Hamon, Mélenchon) will participate.

The biggest risk here seems to be for Macron. As the current favorite, and with no experience in public politic debates, all eyes will be on him.
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Old 20th March 2017, 09:21 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
This evening TF1 will air the first debate of the general campaign. The five candidates leading in the polls (Macron, Le Pen, Fillon, Hamon, Mélenchon) will participate.

The biggest risk here seems to be for Macron. As the current favorite, and with no experience in public politic debates, all eyes will be on him.
Between this and the Senate hearings today, important date. I consider a non-Le Pen victory vital to... gosh, possibly the future of civilization.
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Old 20th March 2017, 09:52 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Five weeks before the first round, this year's French presidential election promises to be like none before it.

For the first time in the history of the 5th republic, it may well be that the two main political blocks will both be thrown out during the first round.
Current polling indeed has far right Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron as qualified for the the second round.
And, again according to current polling, Macron is expected to win the second round.

However, this election has known a number of surprising developments so far, who knows what can still happen in the coming five weeks.

Who do you expect to win this election?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French...017#Candidates
All I can say is : not le pen. I could be surprised but I doubt it. Too many left and right folk which would rather have the opposing side than le pen.
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Old 21st March 2017, 12:01 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
Between this and the Senate hearings today, important date. I consider a non-Le Pen victory vital to... gosh, possibly the future of civilization.
Certainly vital to the future of peaceful cooperation within the EU.

The good news is that Macron survived yesterday's debate unscathed.
Sure, he was not as much at ease as Mélenchon and Le Pen, but his main weakness (what parliamentary majority will he work with?) was barely mentioned.

Also mostly missing were the judicial troubles of Le Pen and Fillon.

If I had to name a winner, it would be Mélenchon.

There are two rolling polls this election cycle, so we'll know within days if this first debate has changed anything substantial.
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Old 21st March 2017, 12:15 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Certainly vital to the future of peaceful cooperation within the EU.

The good news is that Macron survived yesterday's debate unscathed.
Sure, he was not as much at ease as Mélenchon and Le Pen, but his main weakness (what parliamentary majority will he work with?) was barely mentioned.

Also mostly missing were the judicial troubles of Le Pen and Fillon.

If I had to name a winner, it would be Mélenchon.

There are two rolling polls this election cycle, so we'll know within days if this first debate has changed anything substantial.
Didn't see it, and no hints yet on this morning's France24 about relative performances, so thanks for the summary. So far, so good! My fingers are crossed.
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Old 21st March 2017, 01:28 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
The good news is that Macron survived yesterday's debate unscathed. Sure, he was not as much at ease as Mélenchon and Le Pen, but his main weakness (what parliamentary majority will he work with?) was barely mentioned.
I'm not sure that that would be as much of a weakness for him as it would be for either Le Pen or Mélenchon. I reckon Macron could propose a centrist line that would be broadly acceptable to the moderates and the right wing of the PS and to the moderate wing of LR. Sure there would be a lot of residual tribalism, but I would expect pragmatism to win out. A key question would be who he appoints to ministerial positions: get a few big-hitters on board and their followers will follow suit.

Le Pen and Mélenchon, on the other hand, would face constant bitter opposition to everything they propose. They'd need to find a Prime Minister from somewhere with the task of driving legislation through parliament (the principle of "je décide, il exécute"), but we could anticipate parliament arguing about every single comma in every sentence.

There is the intriguing prospect of Mélenchon calling for a 6eme République, of course, which would be intellectually interesting although potentially chaotic.

Overall I'm expecting - and almost hoping - for a re-run of 2002. Voting more or less according to our beliefs in the first round (or at least for the least worst candidate), and then mobilising en bloc in the second round to vote against Le Pen. In 2002 I drove various elderly relatives to the polling stations to vote in the second round; none of those are still around but I'll be available should anybody need assistance this time around.
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Old 21st March 2017, 02:04 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by malbui View Post
I'm not sure that that would be as much of a weakness for him as it would be for either Le Pen or Mélenchon. I reckon Macron could propose a centrist line that would be broadly acceptable to the moderates and the right wing of the PS and to the moderate wing of LR. Sure there would be a lot of residual tribalism, but I would expect pragmatism to win out. A key question would be who he appoints to ministerial positions: get a few big-hitters on board and their followers will follow suit.
You may be right about pragmatism to win out: I certainly hope you are.
It will be a fascinating development for France to have a governing majority composed of PS and LR moderates.

Originally Posted by malbui View Post
Le Pen and Mélenchon, on the other hand, would face constant bitter opposition to everything they propose. They'd need to find a Prime Minister from somewhere with the task of driving legislation through parliament (the principle of "je décide, il exécute"), but we could anticipate parliament arguing about every single comma in every sentence.

There is the intriguing prospect of Mélenchon calling for a 6eme République, of course, which would be intellectually interesting although potentially chaotic.
Agree. Let's hope we never find out you were right.

Originally Posted by malbui View Post
Overall I'm expecting - and almost hoping - for a re-run of 2002. Voting more or less according to our beliefs in the first round (or at least for the least worst candidate), and then mobilising en bloc in the second round to vote against Le Pen. In 2002 I drove various elderly relatives to the polling stations to vote in the second round; none of those are still around but I'll be available should anybody need assistance this time around.
I may be overoptimistic, but I just can't imagine France electing Le Pen.
Maybe the Trump fiasco will help the French make a wiser choice.
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Old 21st March 2017, 02:09 AM   #17
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The political reactions this morning are mainly attacks against Macron: definitely the man to beat now.

Prime minister Cazeneuve (PS) has asked the members of the government not to side with Macron for now.
Barbara Pompili (Parti écologiste), a junior minister, promply endorsed Macron today. She is the first member of the government to do so.
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Old 21st March 2017, 03:11 AM   #18
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A poll of people who watched yesterday's debate: http://www.lepoint.fr/presidentielle...13444_3121.php

Two slides:

This one shows the answer to the question: which candidates was the most convincing during the debate.
Left column: all watchers.
Right column: likely voters.
slide1.jpg

This one shows what % of likely voters apply the given attribute to each of the candidates.

The attributes are:
HonnêteHonnest
A une stature presidentielleHas presidential stature
A de l'autoritéHas authority
Crédibleis credible
Comprend les préoccupations des FrançaisUnderstands the issues that concern the French

slide2.jpg

At first analysis, doesn't look good for Fillon.
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Old 21st March 2017, 03:31 AM   #19
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As it happens, this morning's post has brought the new cartes électorales for Mme Malbui and me, which will facilitate doing our civic duty in the coming weeks.
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Old 21st March 2017, 09:17 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by malbui View Post
As it happens, this morning's post has brought the new cartes électorales for Mme Malbui and me, which will facilitate doing our civic duty in the coming weeks.
We count on you, Madame et Monsieur malbui!
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Old 21st March 2017, 09:21 AM   #21
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Okay, everyone else says Macron so I am going to bet on Fillon for the fun of it.

I don't really know any of the candidates but of course I want anyone but Le Pen to win.
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Old 21st March 2017, 10:40 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
We count on you, Madame et Monsieur malbui!
I will sing the French national anthem if non-Le Pen wins. And not just the clip from Casablanca on YouTube, no, but the real deal. (Same one I sing after any attack in France. )

Don't worry, I am far away. But did you know, I could walk to France from my house using only hiking trails? Still, maybe a 100 km walk, though. Mon dieu!
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Old 21st March 2017, 02:18 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
I will sing the French national anthem if non-Le Pen wins. And not just the clip from Casablanca on YouTube, no, but the real deal. (Same one I sing after any attack in France. )

Don't worry, I am far away. But did you know, I could walk to France from my house using only hiking trails? Still, maybe a 100 km walk, though. Mon dieu!
For me non-Le Pen is also the most important.
But I'd rather not have Fillon: too close for comfort to Putin, sleazy, and somewhat reactionary.
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Old 21st March 2017, 02:49 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
I will sing the French national anthem if non-Le Pen wins. And not just the clip from Casablanca on YouTube, no, but the real deal.

I beg to differ as to your French anthem preferences.

IMO a better sensible and clever choice would be that one: Aux Armes Et Caetera (the Wailers and Rita Marley inside).

In this Marseillaise version, Serge Gainsbourg sang some lyrics from the original song -he bought the manuscript- that are missing in many, if not all, other online versions:
Quote:
Liberté, Liberté chérie
Combats avec tes défenseurs


Freedom, beloved Freedom
Fight with your defenders

And if you don't trust Serge Gainsbourg, well, je suis venir te dire que je m'en vais...
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Old 21st March 2017, 03:30 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Alphaba View Post
I beg to differ as to your French anthem preferences.

IMO a better sensible and clever choice would be that one: Aux Armes Et Caetera (the Wailers and Rita Marley inside).

In this Marseillaise version, Serge Gainsbourg sang some lyrics from the original song -he bought the manuscript- that are missing in many, if not all, other online versions:


And if you don't trust Serge Gainsbourg, well, je suis venir te dire que je m'en vais...
Quite nice! I won't be able to sing like that, though. There are limits to what I might do to my next door neighbor, the jerk.

Continuing with things French, I'm dying to do a cheese excursion to Perpignan. Hope to some day when the wife is free.

ETA: They were really going at it on Debate on France24 this afternoon. I cannot report much because it was all interruptions. I focused on my spaghetti.

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Old 21st March 2017, 04:07 PM   #26
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Wow, I never expected an unabashed Blairite to be the least odious out of the top 3 candidates.
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Old 23rd March 2017, 01:18 AM   #27
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I expect the yesterdays' event in London to boost LePen a little.

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Old 23rd March 2017, 01:56 AM   #28
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Knowing that the general election is scheduled six weeks after the presidential election I wonder on which kind of majority Macron could rely to create his government and get support for his political program in case he becomes President.
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Old 23rd March 2017, 02:06 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I expect the yesterdays' event in London to boost LePen a little.

McHrozni
Possible.

Meanwhile, polling since the debate shown no significant change so far for the three leading candidates.

In some polls Mélenchon is now slightly ahead of Hamon: that may be a result of his good performance in the debate.

In other news:

A second junior minister, Thierry Braillard (MRG), has come out in support of Macron.
According to a regional newspaper, Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS), minister of defense, will soon announce his support for Macron. That would be major development.

Yesterday the candidates made public their assets and liabilities (a legal requirement). These statements are not vetted.

A few takeouts:
Fillon's statement is somewhat contradictory with earlier statements (for example concerning the value of his consultancy firm). The amounts involved are not very important though.
Oddity: he lists as liability a loan from his daughter for €30000, that he used to pay his taxes.

Le Pen statement contains parts in a number of houses, some of which seem undervalued (she is under investigation by the fiscal authorities about this) . As liability, she lists a 3.6 million euro loan from ... her father.

The most surprising to me is Macron's statement. As a former investment banker, I expected him to have a few millions in assets. Apparently, he doesn't even own a home or a car.
He lists financial assets of +/- €610000, and liabilities of +/- €300000 euro.
ETA: his wife owns a home, and apparently the candidates don't have to list assets that are wholly owned by their partner.
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Old 23rd March 2017, 12:30 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
The most surprising to me is Macron's statement. As a former investment banker, I expected him to have a few millions in assets. Apparently, he doesn't even own a home or a car.
He lists financial assets of +/- €610000, and liabilities of +/- €300000 euro.
ETA: his wife owns a home, and apparently the candidates don't have to list assets that are wholly owned by their partner.
Maybe he was not a very efficient investment banker, which could explain why he switched to a government function...
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Old 24th March 2017, 12:09 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Maybe he was not a very efficient investment banker, which could explain why he switched to a government function...


The statement issued Wednesday was about assets and liabilities.
But when he became minister in 2014, he had to disclose his revenues too.
He earned 2.9 million euros at banque Rothschild & Cie in the years 2009-2012.
In 2012-2014, as an adviser to president Hollande, he earned €390000.

His assets disclosed in 2014 also seemed low in comparison to his earnings.
His explanation was basically that:
- the 2.9 million euros were before taxes, and he paid 1.4 million euros in social charges and taxes;
- he had debts to repay;
- during his Rotschild years he spent a lot.

The assets and liabilities statements disclosed by presidential candidates are not vetted. The income, assets and liabilities statements required from ministers are vetted by an independent authority. His statement was accepted as truthful.

Source
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Old 24th March 2017, 02:39 AM   #32
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Marine Le Pen with her Duma friends today:
C7qn_hDU8AEAOBa.jpg

Yesterday Lavrov said that she is not a "populist", but a "realist" or "anti-globalist".

At least Hollande doesn't have to "tapp (sic) her phone" to know she is Putin's BFF.
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Old 24th March 2017, 08:34 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Marine Le Pen with her Duma friends today:
Attachment 36564

Yesterday Lavrov said that she is not a "populist", but a "realist" or "anti-globalist".

At least Hollande doesn't have to "tapp (sic) her phone" to know she is Putin's BFF.
That was pretty clear (and also showed that despite her recent attempts to say otherwise, she's still her father's daughter) back when she announced that French Jews would have to give up any dual citizenship with Israel if they wanted to remain French citizens should she get elected, and then turned around and said she was perfectly fine with dual Russian-French citizenship.
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Old 24th March 2017, 10:38 AM   #34
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If I were the opposition I would be pushing the Le Pen Is a Stooge for Putin angle really hard.
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Old 24th March 2017, 11:22 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If I were the opposition I would be pushing the Le Pen Is a Stooge for Putin angle really hard.
Not sure it would work.

While Fillon is plagued with the issues relvealed in the French press since end January, Le Pen who is suspected in numerous dubious and potentially harmful cases does apparently not suffer any adverse consequences from this. It just looks like people ready to vote for her are not interested in these problems.
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Old 24th March 2017, 11:57 AM   #36
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I need to officially come out as God-help-us if Le Pen or Fillon wins. Two peas in a pod, after all is said and done.
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Old 24th March 2017, 03:40 PM   #37
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Who else sees the fact that Le Pen can meet openly with Putin, and worse, promise to lift sanctions, as worrisome, even if it has no effect on her supporters?

Macron, je t'aime !
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Old 24th March 2017, 04:17 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Not sure it would work.

While Fillon is plagued with the issues relvealed in the French press since end January, Le Pen who is suspected in numerous dubious and potentially harmful cases does apparently not suffer any adverse consequences from this. It just looks like people ready to vote for her are not interested in these problems.
I call it the Duterte Effect, because Duterte was open about being a killer, it wouldn't work as a smear.
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Old 25th March 2017, 12:02 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
Who else sees the fact that Le Pen can meet openly with Putin, and worse, promise to lift sanctions, as worrisome, even if it has no effect on her supporters?

Macron, je t'aime !
That's because anyone with enough wits to see this as a problem would't vote for her already. Candidates like LePen - Duerte, Trump, Chavez, Putin and others - work with the dumb to rule the rest.

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Old 25th March 2017, 05:15 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's because anyone with enough wits to see this as a problem would't vote for her already. Candidates like LePen - Duerte, Trump, Chavez, Putin and others - work with the dumb to rule the rest.

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