Who will win the 2017 French presidential election?

[NWO Sentryman]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

That's because anyone with enough wits to see this as a problem would't vote for her already. Candidates like LePen - Duerte, Trump, Chavez, Putin and others - work with the dumb to rule the rest.

McHrozni

And Macron's supporters are even dumber by that logic, when a Banker who openly praises Tony Blair and gives no concrete opinions and was responsible for a lot of unpopular austerity laws under the Hollande Administration is somehow the front runner and worshipped as the Messiah.

[Degeneve]

Originally Posted by NWO Sentryman

And Macron's supporters are even dumber by that logic, when a Banker who openly praises Tony Blair and gives no concrete opinions and was responsible for a lot of unpopular austerity laws under the Hollande Administration is somehow the front runner and worshipped as the Messiah.

Above all this shows how poor the other candidates are.

[malbui]

Originally Posted by Degeneve

Above all this shows how poor the other candidates are.

Anecdotes not data, etc, but I can't think of anybody in my circle who will vote next month with any sense of inspired enthusiasm. It's all least worst choices.

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by NWO Sentryman

And Macron's supporters are even dumber by that logic, when a Banker who openly praises Tony Blair and gives no concrete opinions and was responsible for a lot of unpopular austerity laws under the Hollande Administration is somehow the front runner and worshipped as the Messiah.

Being responsible for tough austerity measures is not an objective critique. He knows what is necessary and isn't getting the heat from it.

McHrozni

[NWO Sentryman]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Being responsible for tough austerity measures is not an objective critique. He knows what is necessary and isn't getting the heat from it.

McHrozni

Who said the following: "The Best Way to Afford a Suit is to Work"?

Emmanuel Macron, Centrist Heart throb, or a Tory?

Austerity does not work, and Europe openly pushed a Lazy Greeks narrative which has fatally undermined solidarity.

[Firestone]

Former prime minister Manuel Valls (PS) announced today he will vote Macron in the first round.

The Hamon camp is understandably furious, calling this "treason".

Yes, we could start a polemic here about how the left of the PS behaved when Valls was prime minister, but that is old history now.

There are two points that matter here for Valls:
1. Do anything possible to avoid a Fillon-Le Pen second round. Hamon has no chance in hell to get into the second round.

2. Draw the lines in the battle for control of (what remains of) the PS after the presidential elections.

I agree with Valls on point 1, don't really care for now on point 2.

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by NWO Sentryman

Austerity does not work, and Europe openly pushed a Lazy Greeks narrative which has fatally undermined solidarity.

Solidarity? Greeks have repeatedly elected governments that spend more than they could earn and borrow more than that can repay. Solidarity in this context would mean let them do so in perpetuity. What about the solidarity to those who would finance the excesses?

The lazy Greek narrative was pushed mostly by those who thought other people (but not they of course) should pay for Greek overspending as a smear of those who already showed great solidarity to the Greeks.

Greece will get the debt relief eventually. The sooner they realize they can only get it as a reward for good behavior and not a reward for reneging on every deal they sign the sooner they'll get it. I struggle to see how this isn't obvious by now.

McHrozni

[NWO Sentryman]

That's BS. All of it. So if a teacher takes a badly behaving pupil and stamps on their skull "Because I felt like it!" what would you think? A show of discipline or cruelty?

[Giz]

Originally Posted by NWO Sentryman

That's BS. All of it. So if a teacher takes a badly behaving pupil and stamps on their skull "Because I felt like it!" what would you think? A show of discipline or cruelty?

Are the Greeks children?
Is asking people to keep their spending within manageable levels akin to stamping on their head?

[NWO Sentryman]

Originally Posted by Giz

Are the Greeks children?
Is asking people to keep their spending within manageable levels akin to stamping on their head?

Whenever you pursue measures designed to reduce them to poverty, it kinda is the equivalent to stamping on their head. No, actually a better analogy would be the abusive partner who beats and starves their spouse and gaslights them into thinking that they deserved it all the while exhorting themselves as a paragon of virtue.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by NWO Sentryman

That's BS. All of it. So if a teacher takes a badly behaving pupil and stamps on their skull "Because I felt like it!" what would you think? A show of discipline or cruelty?

So other people should be forced to pay for the extravangence of Greek politicians?
The idea that it is a bad idea for governments to spend beyond their means seems to be anathema to you.

[NWO Sentryman]

Originally Posted by dudalb

So other people should be forced to pay for the extravangence of Greek politicians?
The idea that it is a bad idea for governments to spend beyond their means seems to be anathema to you.

For the Record, I believe that Greece should NEVER have been allowed into the Eurozone to begin with. The fact that Eurozone turned a blind eye to enforcing its own rules says a lot.

[Hlafordlaes]

IIRC, not long ago the logic was that tying Greece into NATO, and later by habit the EU, was essential to counteract the strong presence of Soviet-friendly communists in the country. As ruinously corrupt as it has been, Greece has played a positive role in safeguarding an important strategic area, and frankly, it's small potatoes in the economic scheme of things. Greece should be part of the EU, but the euro should not have been extended to all members until much greater convergence had been achieved.

At any rate, the importance of not mishandling Greece by being too permissive or too strict is that of precedent and message, not impact, especially now past the financial crisis. What seems a real tightrope is not allowing justified economic due diligence to be mistaken as undemocratic imposition, OTOH and not allowing the asymmetry of power to be mistaken as a license to treat the Greeks shabbily OTOH. The former risks adding fuel to the fire of demagoguery, and the later as well. Egads.

ETA And tying that back to this thread, the EU needs to start really thinking about its own messaging; it assumes to much good will and needs to be more explanatory and neatly visible against the new propaganda background. A non-Le Pen win would help settle things so the EU can get back on its game.

[dudalb]

THe EU, in my opinion,needs to go back to being a economic union, and go easy or even backtrack on trying to be a political union. I think ,to use a term, it exceeding it's remit when it tried to be a political union.

[Giz]

Originally Posted by dudalb

THe EU, in my opinion,needs to go back to being a economic union, and go easy or even backtrack on trying to be a political union. I think ,to use a term, it exceeding it's remit when it tried to be a political union.

Well, that would have kept the UK in.

Fwiw, my 2 cents: the EU should have gone for free movement and then soft pedaled talk of political integration. Let a generation or two grow up experiencing free movement and closer European ties and see if a European demos arose naturally. Then let that drive the integration. Instead, they rushed it.

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by dudalb

THe EU, in my opinion,needs to go back to being a economic union, and go easy or even backtrack on trying to be a political union. I think ,to use a term, it exceeding it's remit when it tried to be a political union.

No. EU is currently too deeply integrated to go back to being an economic union, but not sufficiently integrated to function as a political union.

It needs to pick, one or the other, more integration or rolling back significant progress of the past decades, including the Euro. This last part would put the continent back into the glory days of the early 1930s.

The only viable route from here on is more political integration. I suspect this was the main point of the Euro all along.

McHrozni

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by Giz

Well, that would have kept the UK in.

Fwiw, my 2 cents: the EU should have gone for free movement and then soft pedaled talk of political integration. Let a generation or two grow up experiencing free movement and closer European ties and see if a European demos arose naturally. Then let that drive the integration. Instead, they rushed it.

Perhaps, yes. Euro should be introduced much more gradually, first Germany, Austria, Benelux and perhaps France, and then slowly add members as convergence criteria is met. The thing is this would create a two-speed Europe, which was the anathema of the era.

McHrozni

[Hlafordlaes]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Perhaps, yes. Euro should be introduced much more gradually, first Germany, Austria, Benelux and perhaps France, and then slowly add members as convergence criteria is met. The thing is this would create a two-speed Europe, which was the anathema of the era.

McHrozni

Agreed. I advocated this in my classes during the time the euro was introduced. What often gets lost in the fog, however, is that the introduction was more or less also considered an emergency measure to tie a newly reunified Germany to Europe and head off a new round of 20th century power politics. Very little about the EU makes any sense to those not interested in history.

[Firestone]

Since the announcement by Valls that he will vote Macron, the reactions on the left have been furious and imho shortsighted.

Frankly, it reminds me of the "Bernie or bust" people.
Why can't they keep their ammunition for the "third round", the parliamentary elections that will follow in June?

The next president of France will be Fillon, Macron or (heaven forbids) Le Pen (unless a deus ex machina sees to it that the election is postponed).
That is the choice they have.

Political purity is nice, but what will they do and how will they feel when confronted with a second round between Fillon and Le Pen?

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by Firestone

Political purity is nice, but what will they do and how will they feel when confronted with a second round between Fillon and Le Pen?

Throw a tantrum, like Bernie supporters.

The results could be quite apocalyptic.

McHrozni

[McHrozni]

Marcon is currently favorite for the first round by about half the margin of error. Filon and Mechelon trail by double digits.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

Three and a half weeks to go, I hope no surprises await us!

McHrozni

[Firestone]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Throw a tantrum, like Bernie supporters.

The results could be quite apocalyptic.

McHrozni

Indeed.

I'm sure that president Fillon or president Le Pen will be very impressed by the big rally the left will hold in protest on the Place de la Bastille.

[Firestone]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Marcon is currently favorite for the first round by about half the margin of error. Filon and Mechelon trail by double digits.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

Three and a half weeks to go, I hope no surprises await us!

McHrozni

I hope the polls are correct.

But I am as anxious as I was the last month of the US election. It looked OK, and people were angry with Nate Silver who gave Trump 30% odds of winning. But hey, look what happened.

Same here: I still think Fillon could make it to the second round, and the problem then is that the voters of the left will stay at home in great numbers for the second round. That could give Le Pen a win.
Is this a very likely scenario at this point? No.
Is this a scenario with non-negligible odds? Yes.

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by Firestone

I hope the polls are correct.

But I am as anxious as I was the last month of the US election. It looked OK, and people were angry with Nate Silver who gave Trump 30% odds of winning. But hey, look what happened.

There is a key difference between US and France. In US, the polls were accurate to the extent they predicted a win of the popular vote for Clinton. However due to electoral college, massive victories in populous states such as New York and California can't offset the marginal victories in, say, Florida, which handed the victory to Trump.

Electoral college is a US oddity, a fossil of a bygone era. France doesn't have one, the popular vote is all that matters. Moreover since we have already seen the awful results of Trump chances are rather good there are enough people on the left who will still prefer Filon to LePen to the sufficient extent to vote for him. It would require two negative upsets in the space of a month. While such an event is not impossible, it is not all that likely.

I hope I'm right at any rate. I urge all French voters who don't wish to return France to the glory days of 1940-44 to vote either for Marcon or at least against LePen.

McHrozni

[Hlafordlaes]

Good news for the French election: I do not expect an "October surprise" in the form of a game-changing event prior to the first or second round. Phew!

Bad news for the German election: Merkel is "the man." She is the one to beat if democracy and the EU are to be dealt a quick death blow. I fully expect some horrible event prior to the German elections, probably in August.


ETA: Polling in the US was skewed toward those willing to answer a pollster or survey, making those holding the most extreme views stay silent to avoid any social shaming. If polling in France were to suffer from French people being afraid to be associated with le Pen, the same phenomenon could be in play. My impression is that this is not the case, that le Pen supporters are quite willing to be polled and express their support.

[Firestone]

Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes

ETA: Polling in the US was skewed toward those willing to answer a pollster or survey, making those holding the most extreme views stay silent to avoid any social shaming. If polling in France were to suffer from French people being afraid to be associated with le Pen, the same phenomenon could be in play. My impression is that this is not the case, that le Pen supporters are quite willing to be polled and express their support.

In 2012 the polls were more or less correct. Marine Le Pen scored a little more than the polls in the last weeks suggested (+1%), but so did Hollande and Sarkozy.
In 2007 Jean-Marie Le Pen actually under performed his polls by +/- 3%.

[Degeneve]

Originally Posted by Firestone

Indeed.

I'm sure that president Fillon or president Le Pen will be very impressed by the big rally the left will hold in protest on the Place de la Bastille.

Which left? The French socialist party is slowly but surely dissolving and I wonder whether it will still have an existence other than merely formal the day of the election...

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by Firestone

In 2012 the polls were more or less correct. Marine Le Pen scored a little more than the polls in the last weeks suggested (+1%), but so did Hollande and Sarkozy.
In 2007 Jean-Marie Le Pen actually under performed his polls by +/- 3%.

The situation today is a tad different. I still hope LePen under-performs in the election.

McHrozni

[NWO Sentryman]

Originally Posted by Degeneve

Which left? The French socialist party is slowly but surely dissolving and I wonder whether it will still have an existence other than merely formal the day of the election...

And the future of France is either Blairite Cultism or the Far Right. Lovely.

[Firestone]

The opinion polls haven't changed much these last few weeks, with the exception of Mélenchon and Hamon switching places (as 4th and 5th).

This evening there will be a televised debate between the 11 candidates (this has never been done in France for the 1st round).
It may well be the last chance for Fillon to start moving toward Le Pen/Macron in the polls.
Fillon has tried to Trumpicize™ his campaign these last few weeks, but it hasn't done him much good apparently.

Another debate between the 11 candidates is scheduled for the 20/apr. Mélenchon has complained about that date (3 days before election day), and will not attend. Macron, Fillon and Le Pen may also skip the debate, so it may well be scrapped.

ETA: an anecdote I just read. During the first debate with the five leading candidates, Fillon was seen regularly consulting his smartphone. This time, after a request by Hamon, the candidates will not be allowed to use their smartphones during the debate.

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by Firestone

The opinion polls haven't changed much these last few weeks, with the exception of Mélenchon and Hamon switching places (as 4th and 5th).

This evening there will be a televised debate between the 11 candidates (this has never been done in France for the 1st round).
It may well be the last chance for Fillon to start moving toward Le Pen/Macron in the polls.
Fillon has tried to Trumpicize™ his campaign these last few weeks, but it hasn't done him much good apparently.

Another debate between the 11 candidates is scheduled for the 20/apr. Mélenchon has complained about that date (3 days before election day), and will not attend. Macron, Fillon and Le Pen may also skip the debate, so it may well be scrapped.

ETA: an anecdote I just read. During the first debate with the five leading candidates, Fillon was seen regularly consulting his smartphone. This time, after a request by Hamon, the candidates will not be allowed to use their smartphones during the debate.

I checked the marginal parties ... French elections sure attract all sorts of kooks and weirdos.

Trotskyists have half a percent of votes, anti-Capitalists (whatever that means) about as much, left-wing populists are at 15% (little better than FN, overall), "Gaulist" isolationists take up another 5% in two different parties, another anti-EU party with barely any votes.

We all know what Marcon, LePen and Filon stand for, LePen is a complete kook, but Filon isn't exactly an Europhile either.

There is only one pro-EU party in France, which manages to get 25% of votes. Seriously?

McHrozni

[Firestone]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

I checked the marginal parties ... French elections sure attract all sorts of kooks and weirdos.

Trotskyists have half a percent of votes, anti-Capitalists (whatever that means) about as much, left-wing populists are at 15% (little better than FN, overall), "Gaulist" isolationists take up another 5% in two different parties, another anti-EU party with barely any votes.

We all know what Marcon, LePen and Filon stand for, LePen is a complete kook, but Filon isn't exactly an Europhile either.

There is only one pro-EU party in France, which manages to get 25% of votes. Seriously?

McHrozni

Yeah, seriously.

Macron and Hamon are the only ones I could see myself voting for, and Hamon is already a stretch for me.
The others, well, as you said ...

If the second round was between Fillon and Le Pen or Mélenchon and Le Pen, I would vote for the one opposing Le Pen, although I think they both are rather dangerous and Putinophile. But less than Le Pen of course.

Thank god I'm not French, here in Belgium we only have sane parties.

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by Firestone

Yeah, seriously.

Macron and Hamon are the only ones I could see myself voting for, and Hamon is already a stretch for me.

Yeah, I agree. At least socialists aren't openly anti-EU, you could say pro-EU parties reach 35% in the lineup. This is not great.

Quote:

If the second round was between Fillon and Le Pen or Mélenchon and Le Pen, I would vote for the one opposing Le Pen, although I think they both are rather dangerous and Putinophile. But less than Le Pen of course.

I agree. Filon is a napkin short of a picnic, he would likely seek to help UK in all things Brexit to detriment of the EU and

Quote:

Thank god I'm not French, here in Belgium we only have sane parties.

Lucky you.

Assuming you're serious and honest, of course

McHrozni

[Degeneve]

Originally Posted by Firestone

Thank god I'm not French, here in Belgium we only have sane parties.

Parties which don't rush to set up a government and can take the time to "think" about this important issue more than 500 days...

[Firestone]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Lucky you.

Assuming you're serious and honest, of course

I wish I was serious. Sadly we have our own crazies both left and right.

Originally Posted by Degeneve

Parties which don't rush to set up a government and can take the time to "think" about this important issue more than 500 days...

Exactly! And those responsible weren't even the crazies mentioned above.

Apologies for the off-topic.

[ddt]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

I checked the marginal parties ... French elections sure attract all sorts of kooks and weirdos.

They're not just kooks and weirdos. Each of them got 500 signatures from amongst ca. 35,000 sitting politicians (MPs, MEPs, and mostly mayors).

[ddt]

Originally Posted by Firestone

Thank god I'm not French, here in Belgium we only have sane parties.

Ah yes, and they're so polite they only address you in your native language. Except the unitary PVDA. And then there's Vlaams Belang which hates immigrants, and the NVA which hates Walloons. I'm less well versed in the Walloon side of the political spectrum, but there are some loonies out there too.

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by ddt

They're not just kooks and weirdos. Each of them got 500 signatures from amongst ca. 35,000 sitting politicians (MPs, MEPs, and mostly mayors).

Thanks for making my point

McHrozni

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by Firestone

I wish I was serious. Sadly we have our own crazies both left and right.

Yeah, I figured. We all do.

We probably always had them, we just didn't know how crazy they were until the information revolution kicked in.

McHrozni

[Firestone]

The debate yesterday evening didn't go as many expected.
As Macron is now the favorite to win the election, many expected him to be the target of most attacks.
In fact, Le Pen and Fillon were the target of most attacks.

I only watched a little of the debate, but managed to catch one of the great moments of the debate: the trotskyite candidate Poutou accusing Le Pen and Fillon of stealing public money!
No major candidate would dare speak like this, and of course, Fillon has not yet been convicted. Anyway, it was a great moment, and Fillon was clearly destabilized by it ("I'll sue you", he mumbled).

It seems that Macron again managed to survive the debate unscathed. Mélenchon was again the best (imho), but the format and the 11 participants made it more difficult for him to dominate the scene. Le Pen was aggressive and not at ease, Hamon barely visible, Fillon seemed to have lost the belief in his own chances.

The two trotskyite were rather good. Arthaud is clearly a better debater than I expected, but she cannot rise above the "employers bad, workers good" cliches. Poutou was the better of the two.

Dupont-Aignan (a Gaullist) was also good. He managed to show that he was more than a single issue candidate. His main targets were Fillon and Le Pen, he may have picked up some votes there.

The others, well, were as as expected.

Will this debate have a significant effect on the polls? I doubt it, but we will know by Friday.

A poll showed that Macron, Fillon and Mélenchon were the most convincing of the lot.

debat.jpg

The left table shows the response among viewers of the debate, the right table the subset of likely voters among them.