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Tags Emmanuel Macron , France elections , France politics , Marine Le Pen , political predictions , political speculation

View Poll Results: Who will win the 2017 French presidential election?
Nathalie Arthaud* 0 0%
François Asselineau* 0 0%
Jacques Cheminade* 0 0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0 0%
François Fillon 2 6.45%
Benoît Hamon 0 0%
Jean Lassalle 0 0%
Marine Le Pen 7 22.58%
Emmanuel Macron* 16 51.61%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon* 0 0%
Philippe Poutou* 0 0%
On planet X, Trump wins all elections 6 19.35%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 5th April 2017, 01:00 AM   #81
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
The left table shows the response among viewers of the debate, the right table the subset of likely voters among them.
Another WTF moment. LePen is the only one that scores better among likely voters than among all viewers.

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Old 5th April 2017, 02:55 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Another WTF moment. LePen is the only one that scores better among likely voters than among all viewers.

McHrozni
Mélenchon and Fillon too.

For those who speak French, Le Monde has a test to see what candidate you are closest to.

My result is not very surprising:

Clipboard01.jpg
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Old 5th April 2017, 03:15 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Mélenchon and Fillon too.
Right, I missed those two. Still, this poll implies LePen could be under-performing in polls. I prefer actual roller coasters than this

12 days to go

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Old 5th April 2017, 03:55 AM   #84
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Yay, the Blairite Virus mutates and spreads to France!
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Old 5th April 2017, 04:14 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Right, I missed those two. Still, this poll implies LePen could be under-performing in polls. I prefer actual roller coasters than this

12 days to go

McHrozni
19 days
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Old 5th April 2017, 04:21 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
19 days
Hm. What's on April 17th that I mistaked the French election for?

Turkish referendum probably ...

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Old 5th April 2017, 05:18 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Right, I missed those two. Still, this poll implies LePen could be under-performing in polls. I prefer actual roller coasters than this
This poll was among 1,004 possible voters, 738 of whom declared they also intended to vote. That's the bare minimum sample to get anything statistically significant. The differences in percentages among "possible voters" and "likely voters" are smaller than the margins of error.

Moreover, what does the question exactly mean, "lequel vous a le plus convaincu"? Does it carry the implication that they won your vote, or just that you think they were the better debater? Thinking back on the recent Dutch elections, I can think of two other party leaders whom I thought better in the debate than the leader of "my" party, still they didn't get my vote.

Thirdly, does it really matter who "wins" the first round? The polls indicate that both Le Pen and Macron clearly lead before Fillon, with Hamon and Mélenchon as distant fourth/fifth. What matters is who become first and second, and in a second round surely everyone from the most radical trotskyite on will vote for whoever is not Le Pen. At least, that's been shown with the Chirac-Le Pen runoff in 2004 (?) and with the recent regional elections.

ETA:
I opened the slide show from Le Point and the numbers have changed now. Also, the whole 10 pages are instructive.

- they interviewed 2,025 TV viewer from among their regular 4,896 representative panel
- again, the results of best debater among the 2,025 viewers and 1,455 viewers-with-intention-to-vote are very similar, with Le Pen slightly better among the latter (11% vs. 10%) and Fillon a bit better (19% vs. 17%)
- among the 1,455 who intend to vote, 17% said they changed their view as to whom they'd vote to.
- the big winner there is Mélenchon with 28% (of those 17% of those 1,455), with Le Pen fifth at 10% and the other three major candidates at 12%
- Mélenchon was the only candidate overall who left a better impression on the viewers after the debate than before, with (better - worse) at 15% among all viewers, 16% among those intending to vote
- Fillon was the absolute worse candidate in that respect, with scores of -25 resp. -23; Le Pen at -17 (both), and Macron not much better at -14 (both)

Again, I don't think the differences between the overall viewership and only those intending to vote are statistically significant. It's a pity they didn't ask who lost their votes from those 17% who switched their voting intentions. Theoretically, it could be that Le Pen won 10% and lost no-one, but I don't think that's likely.
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Old 5th April 2017, 05:33 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
I only watched a little of the debate, but managed to catch one of the great moments of the debate: the trotskyite candidate Poutou accusing Le Pen and Fillon of stealing public money!
No major candidate would dare speak like this, and of course, Fillon has not yet been convicted. Anyway, it was a great moment, and Fillon was clearly destabilized by it ("I'll sue you", he mumbled).
Someone had to say it, right?

Fillon "employed" his wife as a parliamentary aid who did no work but received around €500k over the years. He also "employed" one or two of his kids in the same vein, who received lesser amounts.

Shortly after the primaries, he received as a gift two suits at €6,500 a piece, which he "forgot" to declare. He also "forgot" to declare a €50k loan from 2013 from business man Marc Ladreit de Lacharrière, the owner of the literary magazine that paid his wife €100k for two measly reviews, and who received in 2010 the Legion d'Honneur - from PM Fillon.

Fillon stole public money and he's corrupt, and he wants to re-establish the RCC as the state church.

OK, I made the last thing up, but it's not far from his reactionary views. Which put him IMHO close to Le Pen as a second on the list of "should NOT become president".
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Old 5th April 2017, 06:08 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Thirdly, does it really matter who "wins" the first round? The polls indicate that both Le Pen and Macron clearly lead before Fillon, with Hamon and Mélenchon as distant fourth/fifth. What matters is who become first and second, and in a second round surely everyone from the most radical trotskyite on will vote for whoever is not Le Pen. At least, that's been shown with the Chirac-Le Pen runoff in 2004 (?) and with the recent regional elections
Indeed, it doesn't matter much who is first and who is second.

But things have somewhat changed since 2002, when, as you wrote, most voters rallied behind Chirac, so that Le Pen ended with only 1% more than in the first round.

Polls now indicate that, in the case of a second round between Macron and Le Pen, a third of Fillon's voters would vote Le Pen. Macron also loses a sizable part of Mélenchon's voters.
Here is one such poll (page 17):

report.jpg

Still, all polls for now show Macron beating Le Pen handily in the second round.
That is, if Fillon doesn't manage a comeback in these last tree weeks (unlikely, but still possible).
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Old 5th April 2017, 06:12 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Someone had to say it, right?

Fillon "employed" his wife as a parliamentary aid who did no work but received around €500k over the years. He also "employed" one or two of his kids in the same vein, who received lesser amounts.

Shortly after the primaries, he received as a gift two suits at €6,500 a piece, which he "forgot" to declare. He also "forgot" to declare a €50k loan from 2013 from business man Marc Ladreit de Lacharrière, the owner of the literary magazine that paid his wife €100k for two measly reviews, and who received in 2010 the Legion d'Honneur - from PM Fillon.

Fillon stole public money and he's corrupt, and he wants to re-establish the RCC as the state church.

OK, I made the last thing up, but it's not far from his reactionary views. Which put him IMHO close to Le Pen as a second on the list of "should NOT become president".
Totally agree.
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Old 5th April 2017, 09:07 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Another debate between the 11 candidates is scheduled for the 20/apr. Mélenchon has complained about that date (3 days before election day), and will not attend. Macron, Fillon and Le Pen may also skip the debate, so it may well be scrapped.
This third debate has now officially been cancelled.

(I know I'm quoting myself )
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Old 5th April 2017, 10:03 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Thirdly, does it really matter who "wins" the first round? The polls indicate that both Le Pen and Macron clearly lead before Fillon, with Hamon and Mélenchon as distant fourth/fifth. What matters is who become first and second, and in a second round surely everyone from the most radical trotskyite on will vote for whoever is not Le Pen. At least, that's been shown with the Chirac-Le Pen runoff in 2004 (?) and with the recent regional elections.

I do not expect things being so straightforward this time. I case the two last would be Le Pen and Fillon I think there might be many usual left voters who could decide not to vote. The same if the two last would be Le Pen and Mélenchon (although for Mélenchon this is unlikely). Many people who traditionally vote right would probably decide not to vote or even to vote for Le Pen.
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Old 5th April 2017, 10:06 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Yeah, I figured. We all do.

We probably always had them, we just didn't know how crazy they were until the information revolution kicked in.

McHrozni
And I really doubt there are more crazies now then there were in the past. They just , with the information revolution, found a way to make their presence known much more efficiently then in the past.
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Old 5th April 2017, 05:48 PM   #94
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Fillon's wife is called Penelope.

In Greek mythology, Penelope was Odysseus' wife, who, during his absence - ten years besieging Troy and ten years trying to get home - was harassed by a bunch of suitors who each wanted to marry her and thus become King of Ithaca. She kept them at bay by saying she would make a choice as soon as she finished weaving a garment. But what she wove during the day, she unraveled again at night.

So, the net result was that she did no work at all. Nomen est omen!
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Old 5th April 2017, 11:37 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
This poll was among 1,004 possible voters, 738 of whom declared they also intended to vote. That's the bare minimum sample to get anything statistically significant. The differences in percentages among "possible voters" and "likely voters" are smaller than the margins of error.
Sure, but I find it significant because they asked the same people. Among the sample LePen performed better among likely voters than it did among all possible voters, it lost fewer votes than the average from the sample.

If they had two different groups of voters and got those results I would be more confident this was just random noise.

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Old 5th April 2017, 11:40 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Indeed, it doesn't matter much who is first and who is second.

But things have somewhat changed since 2002, when, as you wrote, most voters rallied behind Chirac, so that Le Pen ended with only 1% more than in the first round.

Polls now indicate that, in the case of a second round between Macron and Le Pen, a third of Fillon's voters would vote Le Pen. Macron also loses a sizable part of Mélenchon's voters.
Here is one such poll (page 17):

Attachment 36608

Still, all polls for now show Macron beating Le Pen handily in the second round.
That is, if Fillon doesn't manage a comeback in these last tree weeks (unlikely, but still possible).
Remember, this is the first round. I would expect Fillon et.al. to throw their weight behind Marcon if the second round is indeed Marcon vs LePen. They may not agree with his pluralist agenda, but it sure is better than anything and everything FN has to offer.

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Old 9th April 2017, 10:03 AM   #97
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Apparently some of the latest opinion polls show that Mélenchon would now be at the same level as Fillon.
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Old 9th April 2017, 11:30 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Apparently some of the latest opinion polls show that Mélenchon would now be at the same level as Fillon.
Indeed.

The latest Kantar poll even puts Mélenchon 1% ahead of Fillon.

Two weeks to go ...
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Old 9th April 2017, 10:56 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Indeed.

The latest Kantar poll even puts Mélenchon 1% ahead of Fillon.

Two weeks to go ...
The most dangerous part is that Mélenchon is steadily rising in polls. Polls are a lagging indicator, they indicate where his support was a week ago.

He doesn't spell disaster per se, but he does represent the retard vote, first and foremost. Not as retarded as LePen perhaps, but that's not a very impressive bar to set.

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Old 9th April 2017, 11:55 PM   #100
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The most dangerous part is that Mélenchon is steadily rising in polls. Polls are a lagging indicator, they indicate where his support was a week ago.

He doesn't spell disaster per se, but he does represent the retard vote, first and foremost. Not as retarded as LePen perhaps, but that's not a very impressive bar to set.

McHrozni
Absolutely.

If we end up with a second round Le Pen-Mélenchon, we might consider a move to Canada. At least Canada doesn't have a powerful neighbour ruled by a madman/madwoman. Ow ..

OK, let's make that we move to Australia.
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Old 10th April 2017, 12:01 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Absolutely.

If we end up with a second round Le Pen-Mélenchon, we might consider a move to Canada. At least Canada doesn't have a powerful neighbour ruled by a madman/madwoman. Ow ..

OK, let's make that we move to Australia.
Let's hope it doesn't come to that, and that Mélenchon has already peaked and his support will begin to wane in the next two weeks.

What else can we do anyway?

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Old 10th April 2017, 10:24 AM   #102
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Le Pen Says France Not to Blame for Vel d'Hiv Roundup

Marine Le Pen has learned this trick from her dear father.
A dog whistle to a (hopefully) small group of voters.

We might call these voters a basket of de..., no, let's not go there, we don't want a five page derail.

But it is a very transparent effort to appeal to some of the ultra-conservative Catholics (*) who rather like Fillon.

(*) Just to be clear, I'm not saying all (or even many) Catholics are ultra-conservative.
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Old 11th April 2017, 02:28 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
(*) Just to be clear, I'm not saying all (or even many) Catholics are ultra-conservative.
Right! But France has a good share of ultra-conservative Catholics...

Marcel Lefebvre was French, after all...
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Old 12th April 2017, 10:03 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Right! But France has a good share of ultra-conservative Catholics...

Marcel Lefebvre was French, after all...
This has always rather amazed me. Either that, or that the country is officially so secular. Both at the same time seems weird. Is this a rural/city thing, or regional?

On topic: Vive Macron, plus ou moins.
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Old 12th April 2017, 12:14 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Right! But France has a good share of ultra-conservative Catholics...

Marcel Lefebvre was French, after all...
'There is Something Vichy About The French".....


Noel Coward paroding his own pre war song "There Is Something Fishy About The French".
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Old 13th April 2017, 01:00 PM   #106
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Brexiters are small players: according to candidate François Asselineau a Frexit would mean a 34 billion euros saving for France every year, i.e. almost 654 millions per week.

And that's not all. Within 5 years from the Frexit the number of jobless in France would go from two to one million. Furthermore it would free the French people from a lot of regulations and administrative obligations that are only the sad result of being member of the European Union and that make the lives of the French a hell on earth...
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Old 13th April 2017, 07:52 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Brexiters are small players: according to candidate François Asselineau a Frexit would mean a 34 billion euros saving for France every year, i.e. almost 654 millions per week.

And that's not all. Within 5 years from the Frexit the number of jobless in France would go from two to one million. Furthermore it would free the French people from a lot of regulations and administrative obligations that are only the sad result of being member of the European Union and that make the lives of the French a hell on earth...
At least the French are not so stupid as the Brits to fall for his lies. Only 1% in the polls.

Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Le Pen Says France Not to Blame for Vel d'Hiv Roundup

Marine Le Pen has learned this trick from her dear father.
A dog whistle to a (hopefully) small group of voters.
Dog whistle? Well, something with dog. Le Pen - the candidate that looks like you!

For good measure, some more Charlie Hebdo caricatures of her:

I'm not extreme right!

Le Pen makes the FN more mainstream: "I shave off the moustache" (NSFW?)

Skinheads? Don't know any...

She may have tried to give the party a "prettier" face, but the active membership still is rife with neo-Nazis.
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Old 13th April 2017, 11:05 PM   #108
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Last night I spent half an hour reading the election bumf from each of the eleven candidates that gets sent in a single brown envelope to all voters. Good grief it made for depressing reading. They all agree that the country is screwed, the only differences are in the direction of the blame. It's one - or a combination - of the Evil EU, the Evil NATO, the Evil Bankers, the Evil Patronat, the Evil Muslims, the Evil Media, or the Evil Experts.
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Old 14th April 2017, 12:34 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
At least the French are not so stupid as the Brits to fall for his lies. Only 1% in the polls.
To which you however need to add the 20+% of French who support Le Pen and her mantra "out of the euro and back to the FRF".
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Old 14th April 2017, 12:36 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by malbui View Post
Last night I spent half an hour reading the election bumf from each of the eleven candidates that gets sent in a single brown envelope to all voters. Good grief it made for depressing reading. They all agree that the country is screwed, the only differences are in the direction of the blame. It's one - or a combination - of the Evil EU, the Evil NATO, the Evil Bankers, the Evil Patronat, the Evil Muslims, the Evil Media, or the Evil Experts.
Basic and number one principle: the French are never responsible for anything bad that can happen to them or to their country...
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Old 14th April 2017, 01:39 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
To which you however need to add the 20+% of French who support Le Pen and her mantra "out of the euro and back to the FRF".
Now you mention it... I still have a couple of hundred francs lying around which I forgot to exchange...
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Old 14th April 2017, 01:44 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
To which you however need to add the 20+% of French who support Le Pen and her mantra "out of the euro and back to the FRF".
And 18% of Mélenchon supporters who claims the same. The difference between France, UK and USA is that the retard vote is split between far-left and far-right retards.

Just so we know who this guy is:

http://www.france24.com/en/20170413-...ners-run-money

Suddenly, the grumpy far-leftist -- a showman in a Chairman Mao jacket who openly admired late Venezuelan populist leader Hugo Chavez

Mao Zedong has the dubious honor of being the culprit some of the worst man-made disasters of all history. Hugo Chavez took the wealthiest Latin American state and made it the poorest, he is the Mugabe of Americas.

Is there something stronger than calling their admirers the retard vote? I feel it is insufficient.

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Old 14th April 2017, 02:14 AM   #113
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Yeah, agree with all the above: the level of stupidity in the campaign is amazing.

Today, on France Info, Le Pen "clarified" her statement about the Vel' d'Hiv:
"Je suis extrêmement sensible au martyrs des juifs. Est-ce que Vichy c'était la France ? Le débat est juridique."
Translated: "I'm am extremely sensible to the martyrdom of the Jews. Was Vichy France? The debate is judicial."

Le Pen apparently graduated from the same PR school as Sean Spicer.

Looking at the polls, it looks like a race with 4 possible winners, still with Macron and Le Pen ahead of Fillon and Mélenchon.
Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017.jpg

While there are slight differences between the polls, they are broadly in agreement.

This has led to these tweets by Nate Silver:

"Yep, looks like herding in French election polls. They shouldn't be this consistent with one another, especially in a hard-to-poll race."

"This should raise a lot of red flags; herding is often a precursor to a big election night "surprise"."

My fear is still that Fillon will outperform the polls. If it is at the expense of Le Pen, that's good. But it could also be at the expense of Macron: don't like that.
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Old 14th April 2017, 02:22 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
My fear is still that Fillon will outperform the polls. If it is at the expense of Le Pen, that's good. But it could also be at the expense of Macron: don't like that.
My fear is that Mélenchon will outperform polls and LePen will edge out Marcon, leaving poor France with the options of LePen and Mélenchon in the second round.

It's not even an outrageous scenario at this point.

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Old 14th April 2017, 02:26 AM   #115
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
My fear is that Mélenchon will outperform polls and LePen will edge out Marcon, leaving poor France with the options of LePen and Mélenchon in the second round.

It's not even an outrageous scenario at this point.

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Yes, that would be even worse.

Le Monde just now published a new poll, that shows a further tightening of the race:
5111189_7_555e_intentions-de-vote-au-premier-tour-selon_11f4f02a3a13a0f6cebc2ea9b169c084.png
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Old 14th April 2017, 02:30 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Yes, that would be even worse.

Le Monde just now published a new poll, that shows a further tightening of the race:
Attachment 36636
Statistical tie between Mélenchon, Filon, Marcon and LePen, with momentum behind Mélenchon and Filon and the most solid support for Filon and LePen. Yay.

The only good news is that Mélenchon has the most fluid support at the moment and is more likely to under-perform in the polls than outperform them.

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Old 14th April 2017, 06:53 AM   #117
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The most weirdest point of Mélenchon's program is its Nr. 62 : he wants France to become a member of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America .

The list of the member States speaks by itself, but it become even weirder when you know that Iran and Syria have an observer status.

Needless to say that this has raised many questions from the press and embarrassed answers from Mélenchon's campaign staff...
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Old 14th April 2017, 11:58 AM   #118
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Statistical tie between Mélenchon, Filon, Marcon and LePen, with momentum behind Mélenchon and Filon and the most solid support for Filon and LePen. Yay.

The only good news is that Mélenchon has the most fluid support at the moment and is more likely to under-perform in the polls than outperform them.

McHrozni
Oh, man, no kidding.

The French seem, I might observe, to be more attached to theory than most, with the beauty of a proposition outweighing its practical effects. I conclude this scientifically from the many French people who would always try to shoot the moon in Internet Hearts back under Windows XP.
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Old 18th April 2017, 01:50 AM   #119
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
The most weirdest point of Mélenchon's program is its Nr. 62 : he wants France to become a member of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America .

The list of the member States speaks by itself, but it become even weirder when you know that Iran and Syria have an observer status.

Needless to say that this has raised many questions from the press and embarrassed answers from Mélenchon's campaign staff...
That's good news, very good news. It will drive the non-retards away from him, he's the second worst choice, behind LePen by a statistical hair. Ask him how he comments the development of Venezuela and their pawning of state assets before the elections if you have the chance, half a percentage point could be crucial.

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Old 18th April 2017, 02:19 AM   #120
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Basic and number one principle: the French are never responsible for anything bad that can happen to them or to their country...
Sigh.
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