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Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , assault incidents , Chicago incidents , Jussie Smollett

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Old 31st January 2019, 12:32 PM   #241
MikeG
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If it was not for the "MAGA" country bit, there would be no controversy.
You have a bunch of right wing ideologuts who don't want to admit one of their own could do something like this. That is it in a nutshell.
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
It's peddling a conspiracy theory under the guise of critical thinking.

And why do I think a lot of "this was fake" talking points are coming off of right wing websites?
Until or unless there is evidence for something else, this seems the likeliest explanation to me.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:32 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Maybe Smollett never meant for the fake attack story to be told to police or the public. Maybe it was originally only to be told to the guy in the condo and then that would be the end of it.
So that's why he bought the clothesline? When did he buy the clothesline?


ETA: If you were planning on mugging someone a new clothesline would be the better option since there's less chance of contaminating it with your DNA etc.

Last edited by Elagabalus; 31st January 2019 at 12:34 PM.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:33 PM   #243
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Yes, but there's scant reason to think that, given, as I've repeatedly said, that he has a lot to lose and nothing to gain from being caught in a fraud, wasting police time etc.
Don't people do that fairly often though?

It's not unusual to take such risks, is it?
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:35 PM   #244
sir drinks-a-lot
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Yes, but there's scant reason to think that, given, as I've repeatedly said, that he has a lot to lose and nothing to gain from being caught in a fraud, wasting police time etc.
I don't think that carries as much weight as you do. First of all, consider William Parcher's comment above. And secondly, in today's crazy culture of identity politics, there is a lot to gain by being seen as a victim of a hate crime. Look how common it is for people to fake these kinds of incidents. What do you think their motivations are?
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:35 PM   #245
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
So that's why he bought the clothesline? When did he buy the clothesline?
Well, the police can probably try to track the clothesline purchase if it was indeed "straight out of the package".

Will they carry the investigation that far though?
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:35 PM   #246
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
It's peddling a conspiracy theory under the guise of critical thinking.

And why do I think a lot of "this was fake" talking points are coming off of right wing websites?
Huh, now why would you think that? Tis a mystery.

The points I am getting are coming from my familiarity with the places this allegedly happened, extensive reporting in the local press, information provided by the CPD, and to a lesser degree locals discussing the alleged event.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:37 PM   #247
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Last time I checked, actors have never been immune to the human activity of doing obviously stupid crap that could wreck their career.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:38 PM   #248
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
This is a skeptic board. Expect skepticism of extraordinary events here, not blind acceptance.......
I'm not seeing scepticism in this at all. When I see critical thinking applied in both directions equally (ie scepticism of the story, and scepticism of the dreamt-up scenarios being peddled here) then I'll accept a claim of scepticism. I'm not seeing that at all. I am seeing nothing but conspiracy-mongering, unfettered by any semblance of critical thinking.

I ask gain, for the umpteenth time, what could he possibly have had to gain, and what has he got to lose? When that is properly analysed, and brought into the equation every time another out-of-thin-air theory is aired, then, and only then, will the conspiracy mongers here have any claim to critical thinking.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:40 PM   #249
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Why wouldnít he turn over the phone to police? Or if not the phone, a printout of calls during the time period which is easily found on your phone companyís web site?

I simply canít imagine why he wouldnít. Unless of course...there was no manager call.

What am I missing?


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Old 31st January 2019, 12:41 PM   #250
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Yes, but there's scant reason to think that, given, as I've repeatedly said, that he has a lot to lose and nothing to gain from being caught in a fraud, wasting police time etc.
He knows there is little to no chance that the cops will be able to or willing to prove it did not happen, he's too famous with way too many supporters.

Plus, he ain't like a white woman who called the cops on a black.

damn, if this was Lower Water Lucy? Oh mercy, The Root would already have posted six stories about wypiple
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:43 PM   #251
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TRump thinks the attack really happened.
Trump is a guy whose word I would take for nothing, but that he thinks it's true is probably causing some sputtering among some people here.
I repeat: The "whole think is fake" is mainly politicially motivated conspiracy theory mongering masquerading as critical thinking. Something we have seen auite a bit of.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:45 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
I don't think that carries as much weight as you do. First of all, consider William Parcher's comment above.
Which one? He's made lots of comments above.


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And secondly, in today's crazy culture of identity politics, there is a lot to gain by being seen as a victim of a hate crime. Look how common it is for people to fake these kinds of incidents. What do you think their motivations are?
I don't live in a "crazy culture of identity politics". I don't live somewhere where it is "common for people to fake these kinds of incidents". So I haven't a clue as to any such person's motivation, or even if such people really exist. I live somewhere where the police gather evidence, the CPS decides whether to bring charges, and people are innocent until proven guilty.

Can you point me to any successful people in the public eye who have faked something of this nature? Someone with the same balance of what's to be gained against what's to be lost as this actor?
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:46 PM   #253
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I'm not seeing scepticism in this at all. When I see critical thinking applied in both directions equally (ie scepticism of the story, and scepticism of the dreamt-up scenarios being peddled here) then I'll accept a claim of scepticism. I'm not seeing that at all. I am seeing nothing but conspiracy-mongering, unfettered by any semblance of critical thinking.

I ask gain, for the umpteenth time, what could he possibly have had to gain, and what has he got to lose? When that is properly analysed, and brought into the equation every time another out-of-thin-air theory is aired, then, and only then, will the conspiracy mongers here have any claim to critical thinking.
I don't treat extraordinary stories equally, though.

The burden of proof for an extraordinary story is on the person telling the story, as it should be.

I found the story extraordinary the moment I heard of it.

If the bleach and the noose were left out, it would have been less extraordinary to me.

Back to sleuthing.

According to Google maps, it seems to be at most a 5 minute walk from the Subway store to the apartment block. So there's apparently not a lot of time left between the Subway video cams and the released video footage of his arrival at his building.

EDIT: it's still not clear where Smollett walked to first, after leaving the Subway store.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:47 PM   #254
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In that case I reconsider. Bill Cosby never molested any women, Brian Dennehy never lied about serving five years in Vietnam, Mel Gibson never went off on an anti-Semitic tirade to a cop, because I can't imagine why they would do it. Ergo, they didn't.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:48 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
TRump thinks the attack really happened.
Then my fakeometer has just gone from 90% to 99%.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:50 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I ask gain, for the umpteenth time, what could he possibly have had to gain
My guess would be attention. Which is probably the same thing that motivated all the other people who have fraudulently claimed hate crimes against themselves.

But regardless, I'm not sure why you're so hung up on motive. The fact remains that people do fraudulently claim hate crimes. So something clearly motivates people to do it. Whatever that motive is, there's no reason to think it can't apply here.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:52 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I'm not seeing scepticism in this at all. When I see critical thinking applied in both directions equally (ie scepticism of the story, and scepticism of the dreamt-up scenarios being peddled here) then I'll accept a claim of scepticism. I'm not seeing that at all. I am seeing nothing but conspiracy-mongering, unfettered by any semblance of critical thinking.



I ask gain, for the umpteenth time, what could he possibly have had to gain, and what has he got to lose? When that is properly analysed, and brought into the equation every time another out-of-thin-air theory is aired, then, and only then, will the conspiracy mongers here have any claim to critical thinking.


What he has to gain is obvious: sympathy and the attendant publicity. It also would serve to push a narrative about how bad Trump supporters are. He may have thought that the chances of the story being proven false were very slim, not considering the amount of surveillance cameras in the area.

OTOH, the risk of the story falling apart is not zero and the consequences would be devastating to his career. So is Smollett the kind of person who would take that risk? If heís a rational person, I would say probably not.

Iím willing to take him at his word but the investigation so far has not corroborated his story. The fact that there is no attack on video, he didnít stop in the lobby and mention anything to the security guard and the fact that he has so far refused to turn over his phone tends to cast some doubt in my mind. The fact that something obviously happened to him and the fact that making up a story could ruin him tend to support him.

So I canít say that I have enough info to make up my mind either way. If pressed, Iíd give him the benefit of the doubt. I just hope that for societyís sake that he didnít fake this.


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Old 31st January 2019, 12:55 PM   #258
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Smollett may have given descriptions to the cops that went beyond ski masks and gloves. He may have described clothing. I noticed that the guys in the video stills seem to be dressed only generically and with dark colors - this is because we can't see detail. But the one guy has very light colored pants and they might be white pants.

A simple description coming from Smollett might be, "clothes were all dark, except the one guy had on white pants". That there might seal it for the police that the guys on video are the attackers.
https://www.cwbchicago.com/2019/01/e...-anti-gay.html

Quote:
From experienced observers, the most interesting part of the dispatch records is this: Responding officers never issued a "flash message" to give descriptions of the offenders to units in the field.
That would seem to indicate that no useful description was provided at the time.
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:56 PM   #259
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Did Smollett go home first, and then go to the friend's apartment?
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Old 31st January 2019, 12:59 PM   #260
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
What he has to gain is obvious: sympathy and the attendant publicity. It also would serve to push a narrative about how bad Trump supporters are. He may have thought that the chances of the story being proven false were very slim, not considering the amount of surveillance cameras in the area.

OTOH, the risk of the story falling apart is not zero and the consequences would be devastating to his career. So is Smollett the kind of person who would take that risk? If heís a rational person, I would say probably not.

Iím willing to take him at his word but the investigation so far has not corroborated his story. The fact that there is no attack on video, he didnít stop in the lobby and mention anything to the security guard and the fact that he has so far refused to turn over his phone tends to cast some doubt in my mind. The fact that something obviously happened to him and the fact that making up a story could ruin him tend to support him.

So I canít say that I have enough info to make up my mind either way. If pressed, Iíd give him the benefit of the doubt. I just hope that for societyís sake that he didnít fake this.


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I agree with your last three paras but i have problems with the first. I see William Parcher's scenario working a little bit better here.
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:00 PM   #261
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
In that case I reconsider. Bill Cosby never molested any women, Brian Dennehy never lied about serving five years in Vietnam, Mel Gibson never went off on an anti-Semitic tirade to a cop, because I can't imagine why they would do it. Ergo, they didn't.
Why would Kevin Spacey assault his co-workers? He has so much to lose!
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:01 PM   #262
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
OTOH, the risk of the story falling apart is not zero and the consequences would be devastating to his career.
I doubt it. All the luvvies would crowd round him and coo about how OK, he might not have been actually attacked, but the fact he was forced by the toxic, racist atmosphere of the US to make up something like this is a sad indictment of society, and lo and behold he'll become the victim all over again. As for his viewers, they wouldn't give a damn, they don't care if their favourite celebrity eats babies, they're still going to watch TV.
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:02 PM   #263
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Why would Kevin Spacey assault his co-workers? He has so much to lose!
Yep, looks like he's innocent too. Abandon the trial!
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:03 PM   #264
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Did Smollett go home first, and then go to the friend's apartment?
Nope, they have video on him from the Subway straight to his friends apartment.

Except for sixty seconds.

Which we skeptics know is MAGA COUNTRY TIME on the lower level streets in Chicago!
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:04 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
So that's why he bought the clothesline? When did he buy the clothesline?
It might require a search warrant(s) to investigate the clothesline purchase. Same for the phone. That would probably require a switch to considering Smollett to be a crime suspect. The cops don't seem to be there.

Quote:
ETA: If you were planning on mugging someone a new clothesline would be the better option since there's less chance of contaminating it with your DNA etc.
If I were a master criminal I'd want a used clothesline that I found somewhere which would have the DNA of other people who are not me.
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:04 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Nope, they have video on him from the Subway straight to his friends apartment.

Except for sixty seconds.

Which we skeptics know is MAGA COUNTRY TIME on the lower level streets in Chicago!
If that's the case, then the time frame for the attack seems to be pretty narrow.
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:05 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Which one? He's made lots of comments above.
The one where he considered that perhaps Smollett didn't want to get the police involved.


Quote:
I don't live in a "crazy culture of identity politics". I don't live somewhere where it is "common for people to fake these kinds of incidents". So I haven't a clue as to any such person's motivation, or even if such people really exist.
They do exist. Lots of them. The fact that you claim not to know this really makes me wonder about your sincerity in asking these questions.

Quote:
Can you point me to any successful people in the public eye who have faked something of this nature? Someone with the same balance of what's to be gained against what's to be lost as this actor?
Not off the top of my head. But then again, I don't think these questions are very relevant.

A few things stand out to me as suspicious in this case. The noose that was not removed, the MAGA yelling, the lack of corroborating evidence, and a few other things. I'm still open to the possibility that it happened as Smollett described, I'm just starting to think it is unlikely.
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:07 PM   #268
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Trump says its horrible, just the worst, and the solution is to build a wall.

"skeptics" here: Trump says it happened!

Real Skeptics, fall off chairs laughing
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:07 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
My guess would be attention.......
The guy plays in front of packed audiences every night in a massive hit theatre production. He goes to premiers, galas, award ceremonies, and other red carpet events. The paparazzi follow him. And that's saying nothing about his social media profile (of which I know nothing). How much more attention do you think he wants? People in his position generally crave less attention, not more.
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:07 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
Why wouldnít he turn over the phone to police? Or if not the phone, a printout of calls during the time period which is easily found on your phone companyís web site?

I simply canít imagine why he wouldnít. Unless of course...there was no manager call.

What am I missing?
It's a celebrity's phone - usually full of the numbers of other celebrities, all of whom will assume that their numbers are now public (especially if given to some group like the Chicago PD), and that they have to get new numbers, find out what everyone else's new number is again, etc. - and who may blame him for the problem.

Thought that one would be obvious...
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:11 PM   #271
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
The guy plays in front of packed audiences every night in a massive hit theatre production. He goes to premiers, galas, award ceremonies, and other red carpet events. The paparazzi follow him. And that's saying nothing about his social media profile (of which I know nothing). How much more attention do you think he wants? People in his position generally crave less attention, not more.


This is entertainment in itself. Encore! Encore!
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:14 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
.......They do exist. Lots of them. The fact that you claim not to know this really makes me wonder about your sincerity in asking these questions........
They might exist in your culture, but not in mine. I don't take any interest in your culture, and most certainly don't follow its news stories. Why should I? Do you know what is going on at the yacht clubs of East Anglia? No? Why would anyone expect you to?
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:15 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
I don't treat extraordinary stories equally, though.

The burden of proof for an extraordinary story is on the person telling the story, as it should be.

I found the story extraordinary the moment I heard of it.

If the bleach and the noose were left out, it would have been less extraordinary to me.

Back to sleuthing.

According to Google maps, it seems to be at most a 5 minute walk from the Subway store to the apartment block. So there's apparently not a lot of time left between the Subway video cams and the released video footage of his arrival at his building.

EDIT: it's still not clear where Smollett walked to first, after leaving the Subway store.
This is why I was very doubtful. It sounded like a caricature of a hatecrime. that doesn't make it impossible but it sounds just so outlandish to me, and I've heard about a lot of hoaxes in recent years so despite "nothing to gain/plenty to lose" generally applying it seems some people are insane enough to act on these ideas.

We'll see in a couple of days/weeks I guess
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:15 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
It's a celebrity's phone - usually full of the numbers of other celebrities, all of whom will assume that their numbers are now public (especially if given to some group like the Chicago PD), and that they have to get new numbers, find out what everyone else's new number is again, etc. - and who may blame him for the problem.

Thought that one would be obvious...
LOLZ! Now that was funny!

I won't show you my phone because I am a celebrity.

Would have totally thought it was obvious, just like all the MAGA hats in MAGA country, a/k/a Chicago
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:16 PM   #275
Ziggurat
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
The guy plays in front of packed audiences every night in a massive hit theatre production. He goes to premiers, galas, award ceremonies, and other red carpet events. The paparazzi follow him. And that's saying nothing about his social media profile (of which I know nothing). How much more attention do you think he wants? People in his position generally crave less attention, not more.
You say that like all forms of attention are equal. But they aren't.
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:18 PM   #276
mgidm86
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I'm not seeing scepticism in this at all. When I see critical thinking applied in both directions equally (ie scepticism of the story, and scepticism of the dreamt-up scenarios being peddled here) then I'll accept a claim of scepticism. I'm not seeing that at all. I am seeing nothing but conspiracy-mongering, unfettered by any semblance of critical thinking.

I ask gain, for the umpteenth time, what could he possibly have had to gain, and what has he got to lose? When that is properly analysed, and brought into the equation every time another out-of-thin-air theory is aired, then, and only then, will the conspiracy mongers here have any claim to critical thinking.
I'll jump in. What does he have to gain...

Maybe he was lying about who attacked him or why. I don't doubt he was attacked. Maybe he started it. Maybe it was something he'd rather not reveal, maybe he was someplace he doesn't want people to know about. Maybe the rope was part of a sex game, picked up the wrong guy at a bar and doesn't want to admit it. It could explain some of the secrecy. That is a short list of possible reasons to lie.

People have reasons to lie, and celebrities certainly are not more rational than non-celebrities.

What did the guy have to gain who wrote "FAG" on his own cake and blamed it on the store he bought it from?

A woman says she saw a man standing near the entrance to the building at 12:30 am. She described his clothing in great detail - blue hoodie, rope maybe hanging out under his coat, unshaven, light colored jeans, high pants so she could see gray socks. Dress shoes(?). And he was white. She says a second man was waiting nearby.

Let's say she's the most observant person in Chicago, or maybe she's an ex cop and remembers these details. Did these guys stand around in -20 degree weather for an hour or more waiting to attack? Risking death waiting outside in below freezing temperature - in a hoodie? And they didn't really even hurt the guy?

Two white guys just hanging out after midnight in -20 weather waiting to jump a gay black actor in Chicago just to toss a rope on him. Okay. It could be true though.

I think she saw these men and I don't think they are the attackers. Yet she says she saw one of them with rope? I don't know man that sounds way too good to be true. It could be true though.

But isn't there video of the victim walking somewhere with the rope already around his neck and road salt on his clothes? That would tell me that it probably was not the two men she said were waiting outside his building since he apparently was attacked elsewhere.

It's possible they left to go find the victim I suppose. Doesn't seem likely. It doesn't make sense to me. Why would they wait at his building, then go attack him elsewhere? It wasn't them.

And if they set out to attack this particular guy after waiting in -20 degree weather in the middle of the night, it seems like they'd do more than scratch his face, drape a rope around him, splash some bleach and run away.

They may very well have done that, but it seems unlikely.

Maybe the victim tried to steal someones laundry off a clothesline, tripped on a bottle of bleach and almost hung himself on the clothesline in the process?

It is his own actions and statements that are raising doubt.

My guess - he doesn't want to admit where he was attacked, why, or by whom because it is either very embarrassing or he caused the problem to begin with.
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:18 PM   #277
MikeG
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
I don't treat extraordinary stories equally, though.

The burden of proof for an extraordinary story is on the person telling the story, as it should be...........
What on earth is extraordinary about a lone black man being mugged by white guys on the streets of urban America? His producer said "Just another ******* day in America".*

*And before some trigger happy mod jumps on that, that isn't an attempt to get around the censor. That is a quote.
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:18 PM   #278
Whip
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
TRump thinks the attack really happened.
Trump is a guy whose word I would take for nothing, but that he thinks it's true is probably causing some sputtering among some people here.
I repeat: The "whole think is fake" is mainly politicially motivated conspiracy theory mongering masquerading as critical thinking. Something we have seen auite a bit of.
this is much more of a conspiracy theory than anything discussed in this thread. just as much as 'maga country' so it must have happened. right?
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:19 PM   #279
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
They might exist in your culture, but not in mine. I don't take any interest in your culture, and most certainly don't follow its news stories. Why should I? Do you know what is going on at the yacht clubs of East Anglia? No? Why would anyone expect you to?
I can see the alleged location this took place at from my office window. the cops who are wasting their time chasing tape on this idiotic fable are the same ones who should be patrolling this neighborhood instead.

(fortunately it is still cold as **** here, so the likelihood of kids swarming the red line will not happen until saturday)
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Old 31st January 2019, 01:19 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
It might require a search warrant(s) to investigate the clothesline purchase. Same for the phone. That would probably require a switch to considering Smollett to be a crime suspect. The cops don't seem to be there.


If I were a master criminal I'd want a used clothesline that I found somewhere which would have the DNA of other people who are not me.
And you'd probably wear your nice and comfy pair of jeans to a bank robbery instead of buying and wearing a brand new pair for "heist" day. Just not comfortable enough!

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/199...orn-by-robber/
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