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Old 18th September 2017, 09:59 AM   #3001
Garrison
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
A key official is moving from the Brexit department to Number 10 apparently due to falling out with David Davis. This is being interpreted in some quarters as Theresa May taking more control over the Brexit process.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41308081

IMO, one indication of an ineffective leader is an unwillingness or inability to delegate and instead attempting to take control of everything personally.
To be fair to May she has controlled nothing with regard to Brexit up to this point. This latest change is akin to jumping into the drivers seat of a car that's gone off a cliff and frantically turning the wheel and stamping the pedals as you plunge to your doom.
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Old 18th September 2017, 10:18 PM   #3002
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That's because for the conservative top bods Brexit was and is about their political ambitions.
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Old 18th September 2017, 11:15 PM   #3003
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
That's because for the conservative top bods Brexit was and is about their political ambitions.

Better to be Captain even if you have to sink the ship to get the job?
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Old 18th September 2017, 11:42 PM   #3004
The Don
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Better to be Captain even if you have to sink the ship to get the job?
Apparently so, though there is some evidence that at least some of the Brexiteers are confident/optimistic/naive/stupid (delete as necessary) to think that Brexit will be a great thing moving reliance on export growth from the slow-growing (but still largest in the world) economic block* towards the fast growing (though uncertain and more volatile and wanting a much narrower range of goods and services) developing economies.

There are others still who think that a certain amount of economic turmoil is a price worth paying for being able to sell ham in ounces, smoke in pubs and sell bendy bananas in pairs**

* - The fact that the EU accounts for a shrinking proportion of UK exports and that other EU members outperform the UK in developing economies demonstrates that EU membership isn't an insurmountable barrier to exporting outside the EU
** - Except none of this would happen in any case because people can do these things already, the move would be unpopular or it's not an EU-related ban
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Old Yesterday, 12:00 AM   #3005
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Better to be Captain even if you have to sink the ship to get the job?
"A good election to lose" springs to mind. Grab the Tory leadership by fair means or foul, lose the next general election (as soon as possible?) and sit back as Labour are tarnished for years when they have to deal with the poop-storm that follows.

Odds to be the next Tory leader (and may the FSM preserve us) :

5.0 Davis
7.5 Rees-Mogg
8.0 Hammond
9.0 Johnson
11.0 Rudd
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Old Yesterday, 12:34 AM   #3006
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I really hope Rees Mogg gets the gig as PM.
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Old Yesterday, 12:44 AM   #3007
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I really hope Rees Mogg gets the gig as PM.
Me too, in a way. But that such a ridiculous figure should be 2nd favourite says a lot about the rest of the field.
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Old Yesterday, 06:38 AM   #3008
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
And no the EU did not clarify.
Which bit of this don't you understand:

"[European commission’s head of representation in the UK, Jacqueline] Minor said the commission’s position on Scottish membership had not changed since the independence referendum in 2014, when it repeatedly said Scotland could not automatically take up separate membership just because it was part of an existing member state."

Quote:
And no there certainly was equivalence between the two referendum outcomes since it was clear that one required hitching our cart to a horse that was agitating to leave and that had expressed clear anti rule sentiment repeatedly and consistently while the other would have been led by a group possibly the most pro Europe in the UK.
Orwell would admire your re-writing of history. At the time of the Scottish referendum, Brexit was not seen as even a remote possibility, notwithstanding the fact that Farage et al were whinging about it. If Brexit was as sure a thing then as you now claim it to have been, you could have cleaned up at the bookies.

Last edited by Information Analyst; Yesterday at 06:39 AM.
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Old Yesterday, 08:45 AM   #3009
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
If Brexit was as sure a thing then as you now claim
Where?

Lying to defend lying isn't good form.

ETA:

Public opinion in the UK was pro-Leave consistently more or less right up to the Indyref. It was clear there was a far greater risk of England voting to leave the EU than of Scotland being excluded.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...um_polling.svg
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Old Yesterday, 09:34 AM   #3010
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Lying to defend lying isn't good form.
I seem to have lost track of your multiple post facto accusations of "lying." Which ones are you referring to now?

Quote:
Public opinion in the UK was pro-Leave consistently more or less right up to the Indyref. It was clear there was a far greater risk of England voting to leave the EU than of Scotland being excluded.
No, what that graph actually shows is that polls were progressively coming out more pro-EU, with overall opinion flipping in that favour in the April of 2014. By the time of the Scottish referendum in the September, pro-EU polls were in the majority, a trend that continued right up to the EU referendum in June 2016. As an aside, it shows that Remain opinion was largely unchanged, whilst Leave benefited from a surge of Undecideds from the beginning of 2016 onwards.

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Old Yesterday, 10:45 PM   #3011
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Seems that despite the government's rhetoric, the UK may not be preparing for the "no deal" as diligently as we might:

Quote:
Here is a small list of the stuff in ports we need to have sorted in March 2019 if we are to walk away from a negotiation:

We would need to buy actual space in ports for immigration officers, customs facilities and sanitary checks to make sure imported food meets whatever standards we set. Dover should be humming - soon, at least - with bulldozers and cement mixers as we prepare for a new world with an independent customs policy.

There have been estimates of a need for 3,000 to 5,000 extra customs officers to cope with the extra traffic inherit in Brexit. Defra will also need to increase staffing and capacity at ports, to allow for the testing of agricultural products and livestock entering the country. We will need new border agents. All these people need recruiting and training.

The new customs computer system - CDS - is going to need to work. We will also need to replace the EU's Trade Control and Expert System (known as TRACES), the tool for tracking livestock and animal products - a new IT system. And you need both of these things to be in place in time before Brexit, so we can demonstrate it works.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41271028

The BBC correspondent suggests that this is good evidence that there will be a deal. I think it's an indication as to the incompetence, laziness and complacency of David Davis

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Old Yesterday, 11:19 PM   #3012
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Seems that despite the government's rhetoric, the UK may not be preparing for the "no deal" as diligently as we might:



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41271028

The BBC correspondent suggests that this is good evidence that there will be a deal. I think it's an indication as to the incompetence, laziness and complacency of David Davis
This is just not a fair comparison. That BBC journalist works 5 days a week, Davis only 3. It's little wonder the journalist knows more about the consequences of Brexit than Davis.

I predict it will be fun, for some value of the word, to stand outside a supermarket in April 2019 and point a camera. Images that evoke the faint memories of Soviet times.
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Old Today, 12:01 AM   #3013
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More UK government assumptions over Brexit - we will stay in, or at least continue to enjoy the benefits of membership of Europol.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41240643

Probably won't happen soon though.....

Quote:
Prime Minister Theresa May has previously said she wants the UK to retain its security co-operation with Europol post-Brexit.

And a number of countries that are not part of the EU, such as Norway, Switzerland and the US, have operational agreements with Europol that allow access to intelligence.

But Europol itself say this does not equate to formal membership, which means these countries do not have a say over operations and decisions.

Europol also points out that such agreements take a number of years to negotiate.
It's OK though, because these will be the easiest negotiations evah
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Old Today, 01:11 AM   #3014
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Operation Stack is going to be a permanent fixture on the M20.
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Old Today, 01:34 AM   #3015
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
I seem to have lost track of your multiple post facto accusations of "lying." Which ones are you referring to now?
When you claim things I haven't said. That's lying.


Quote:
No, what that graph actually shows is that polls were progressively coming out more pro-EU, with overall opinion flipping in that favour in the April of 2014. By the time of the Scottish referendum in the September, pro-EU polls were in the majority, a trend that continued right up to the EU referendum in June 2016. As an aside, it shows that Remain opinion was largely unchanged, whilst Leave benefited from a surge of Undecideds from the beginning of 2016 onwards.
Wonderful denial of reality. What it clearly shows is that in the lead up to the Indyref it was the intention of the government to hold a referendum on a subject on which the opinion polls showed the country favoured one outcome. Anyone claiming that a vote to leave the EU wasn't a remote possibility in 2014 is lying. Simple as that.

Anyone who claims that Scotland was more likely to end up outside the EU as an independent country than being tacked on to a bigger country where the majority actually wanted to leave is lying.
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Old Today, 04:03 AM   #3016
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Operation Stack is going to be a permanent fixture on the M20.
It may extend northwards around the M25, and up the M11 as far as Stanstead
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Old Today, 04:10 AM   #3017
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It may extend northwards around the M25, and up the M11 as far as Stanstead
Just turn Kent into a lorry park.
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Old Today, 04:46 AM   #3018
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
When you claim things I haven't said. That's lying.
Such as, specifically?

Quote:
Wonderful denial of reality. What it clearly shows is that in the lead up to the Indyref it was the intention of the government to hold a referendum on a subject on which the opinion polls showed the country favoured one outcome. Anyone claiming that a vote to leave the EU wasn't a remote possibility in 2014 is lying. Simple as that.
More Orwellian rewriting of history. The Scottish referendum was in 2014. Although some were agitating for an EU referendum, it was not a certainty at the time due to the impending 2015 general election. Since 2010 Labour had ruled out a referendum, while the Tories and the Lib-Dems proposed one in the 2015 election manifestos.

You clearly do not understand the graph you yourself cited. As I pointed out, it actually shows that the majority support shifted toward staying in the EU and away from leaving before the Scottish referendum, a trend that consolidated throughout 2015, and did not significantly fall even after the general election resulted in the certainty of an EU referendum. If you can't properly interpret statistical information that actually undermines your claims, you probably should avoid drawing attention to it.

Quote:
Anyone who claims that Scotland was more likely to end up outside the EU as an independent country than being tacked on to a bigger country where the majority actually wanted to leave is lying.
Are you laying the groundwork for a future job in an independent Scotland's Ministry of Truth? I'll walk you through this in simple steps:

1) Scotland votes to leave the EU. As per the stated position of the EU, an independent Scotland will be out of the EU, and will have to apply to join. A number of countries might make that tough, as they don't want to encourage their own secessionist movements (e.g. Spain and Catalonia). A independent Scotland being out of the EU is therefore a high probability - if not a certainly - and subsequent admission is only a possibility.

2) Scotland votes to stay in the UK. The likelihood of an EU referendum happening is still a toss-up between whether Labour or the Tories win the 2015 general election. By the time of the Scottish referendum and subsequently, the polls are clearly favouring a Remain vote. Scotland being out of the EU depends on, a) an EU referendum actually happening, which was not a certainty, and b) a clear trend favouring Remain being reversed at the last minute. In other words, something improbable following something that was only a possibility.

The EU outlook in 2014 does not retrospectively change just because actual events panned out the way that they did.
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Old Today, 05:23 AM   #3019
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
1) Scotland votes to leave the EU. As per the stated position of the EU, an independent Scotland will be out of the EU, and will have to apply to join. A number of countries might make that tough, as they don't want to encourage their own secessionist movements (e.g. Spain and Catalonia). A independent Scotland being out of the EU is therefore a high probability - if not a certainly - and subsequent admission is only a possibility.
I wonder if those groups are likely to feel differently to a secessionist Scotland seeking admittance into the EU after the UK leaves.
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Old Today, 05:33 AM   #3020
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
1) Scotland votes to leave the EU. As per the stated position of the EU, an independent Scotland will be out of the EU, and will have to apply to join..
I presume you meant UK there. But I agree with your points.
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Old Today, 05:47 AM   #3021
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Operation Stack is going to be a permanent fixture on the M20.
Why? That's traffic bound for continental Europe. By the time of Brexit, most EU based companies will have switched to other suppliers, I presume. They're not waiting to go back to the 1970s glory days of British quality manufacturing.
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Old Today, 05:55 AM   #3022
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Why? That's traffic bound for continental Europe. By the time of Brexit, most EU based companies will have switched to other suppliers, I presume. They're not waiting to go back to the 1970s glory days of British quality manufacturing.
The trucks that delivered all the stuff to the UK will still have to leave and go back home. The UK will still have to import a great deal.
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Old Today, 05:58 AM   #3023
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Why? That's traffic bound for continental Europe. By the time of Brexit, most EU based companies will have switched to other suppliers, I presume. They're not waiting to go back to the 1970s glory days of British quality manufacturing.
I did think about that, but that's why the queue won't be all the way up the M1 to Leeds. As The Don says, we'll still be importing things...though obviously not as much stuff as we won't have any money.
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Old Today, 06:14 AM   #3024
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
More Orwellian rewriting of history. The Scottish referendum was in 2014. Although some were agitating for an EU referendum, it was not a certainty at the time due to the impending 2015 general election. Since 2010 Labour had ruled out a referendum, while the Tories and the Lib-Dems proposed one in the 2015 election manifestos.
And at the time of the Scottish Indyref, and the campaign, Cameron had already publicly pledged that it would get into the election manifesto.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
You clearly do not understand the graph you yourself cited. As I pointed out, it actually shows that the majority support shifted toward staying in the EU and away from leaving before the Scottish referendum, a trend that consolidated throughout 2015, and did not significantly fall even after the general election resulted in the certainty of an EU referendum. If you can't properly interpret statistical information that actually undermines your claims, you probably should avoid drawing attention to it.
Eyeballing that graph, the two trend lines intersect at week 17 in 2014, i.e., end of April (I think each fine grey line stands for two weeks). Even at its best, mid-2015, Remain was at 45% and Leave at 38%. Given the wild variation in polling outcomes, that's firmly within the margin of error. You shouldn't oversell this point. Remain never seemed a done deal, and specifically when you look at the polls in Q2 of 2014 - i.e., at the time of the Indyref campaign - you see several poll outcomes where Leave won. That certainly doesn't say "no is never gonna happen".

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
1) Scotland votes to leave the EU. As per the stated position of the EU, an independent Scotland will be out of the EU, and will have to apply to join. A number of countries might make that tough, as they don't want to encourage their own secessionist movements (e.g. Spain and Catalonia). A independent Scotland being out of the EU is therefore a high probability - if not a certainly - and subsequent admission is only a possibility.
Actually, that point has been hugely oversold. The Spanish PM was also on record that he would not be the spoilsport for a Scottish accession, a fact that the British press didn't publish.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
2) Scotland votes to stay in the UK. The likelihood of an EU referendum happening is still a toss-up between whether Labour or the Tories win the 2015 general election. By the time of the Scottish referendum and subsequently, the polls are clearly favouring a Remain vote. Scotland being out of the EU depends on, a) an EU referendum actually happening, which was not a certainty, and b) a clear trend favouring Remain being reversed at the last minute. In other words, something improbable following something that was only a possibility.
Fair enough about (a), Labour was in the lead at the time. But you're overselling the trend in Brexit polling which was not that convincing. I count in that graph at least 5 individual polls in the months before the Indyref where Leave outpolled Remain.
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Old Today, 06:34 AM   #3025
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The trucks that delivered all the stuff to the UK will still have to leave and go back home. The UK will still have to import a great deal.
Empty. That's no problem for customs, is it? Nor for border control. I've never had a problem getting out of a country, not even the GDR or the Soviet Union.

Why import stuff? British apples infested with British maggots because they've been picked too late by British formerly lazy welfare buns are delicious. You don't need no stinkin' Dutch tomatoes or Danish pork or German eggs or French wine. And in order to distribute evenly what you do produce, the Royal Mint (or whoever does that) surely still has the originals of the rationing coupons from the 1940s.

Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
I did think about that, but that's why the queue won't be all the way up the M1 to Leeds. As The Don says, we'll still be importing things...though obviously not as much stuff as we won't have any money.
Wait, where do you plan to put the customs? Do you plan to put the customs around London and make the whole M25 into the queue? Better then also block all the junctions. Why not simply turn Dover Castle into a carpark?

BTW, the name of that "Operation Stack" is highly misleading. In computing science, a "stack" is a data structure where you "push" a new element onto the stack and "pop" the last pushed element off the stack (and you have no way of removing the oldest element off the stack). I don't think it worked that way. A queue is a list where you (only) can remove the first added element.
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Old Today, 06:48 AM   #3026
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Empty. That's no problem for customs, is it?
Only if you believe that the vehicles are empty when they leave. They will also presumably still be subject to security checks.

It's estimated that the workload for customs will increase sixfold as a result of leaving the EU so unless exports to the EU fall to a tiny fraction of their current level then there'll still be issues.

Not even the archest Remainer has suggested that exports to the EU will drop by more than 80%

Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Nor for border control. I've never had a problem getting out of a country, not even the GDR or the Soviet Union.
I have.

The worst was leaving the US when BA had failed to record my arrival properly six weeks previously. I was detained for a while.

Whenever I leave the EU I always have to go through passport control at my EU departure airport.

Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Why import stuff? British apples infested with British maggots because they've been picked too late by British formerly lazy welfare buns are delicious. You don't need no stinkin' Dutch tomatoes or Danish pork or German eggs or French wine. And in order to distribute evenly what you do produce, the Royal Mint (or whoever does that) surely still has the originals of the rationing coupons from the 1940s.
Even if we accept lower quality food and rationing, supply chains these days are so closely integrated internationally that domestic industries will suffer very badly.

Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Wait, where do you plan to put the customs? Do you plan to put the customs around London and make the whole M25 into the queue? Better then also block all the junctions. Why not simply turn Dover Castle into a carpark?
It's not really my job to work out where the customs should be but they're usually at the point of departure - hence the need for Operation Stack. Your suggestion that the customs be in London is quite frankly nonsensical because there'd need to be another check at the border. Similarly the idea of blocking M25 junctions.

The appropriate steps are however outlined in the BBC article.

Originally Posted by ddt View Post
BTW, the name of that "Operation Stack" is highly misleading. In computing science, a "stack" is a data structure where you "push" a new element onto the stack and "pop" the last pushed element off the stack (and you have no way of removing the oldest element off the stack). I don't think it worked that way. A queue is a list where you (only) can remove the first added element.
Then complain to to Kent Police and Highways England about their branding

There are other types of stack out there though.
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Old Today, 06:58 AM   #3027
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Wait, where do you plan to put the customs? Do you plan to put the customs around London and make the whole M25 into the queue? Better then also block all the junctions. Why not simply turn Dover Castle into a carpark?
The lorries still need to be checked on the way out.
After all, don't want any disenchanted Brits sneaking out in the back of them...that won't make Brexit look the success we all know it will be!
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Old Today, 08:28 AM   #3028
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Only if you believe that the vehicles are empty when they leave. They will also presumably still be subject to security checks.

It's estimated that the workload for customs will increase sixfold as a result of leaving the EU so unless exports to the EU fall to a tiny fraction of their current level then there'll still be issues.

Not even the archest Remainer has suggested that exports to the EU will drop by more than 80%
Fair enough. But if come April 2019 there aren't enough customs facilities, it will come to a temporary standstill.


Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I have.

The worst was leaving the US when BA had failed to record my arrival properly six weeks previously. I was detained for a while.
Wow. I wasn't even detained when I was caught smuggling stuff into the GDR.
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Whenever I leave the EU I always have to go through passport control at my EU departure airport.
Fair enough, I've even had passport checks inside Schengen on flights.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It's not really my job to work out where the customs should be but they're usually at the point of departure - hence the need for Operation Stack. Your suggestion that the customs be in London is quite frankly nonsensical because there'd need to be another check at the border. Similarly the idea of blocking M25 junctions.

The appropriate steps are however outlined in the BBC article.
It wasn't clear from the article, and I frankly thought customs were primarily on entry, to impose import duties. Operation Stack, according to the wiki page, is mainly due to problems getting the lorries out of the country: no ferries due to bad weather, electrical failure in the Chunnel or French strikes.
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Old Today, 10:02 AM   #3029
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Fair enough. But if come April 2019 there aren't enough customs facilities, it will come to a temporary standstill.
Yes, which will result in traffic building up both sides of the Channel triggering operation Stack on the UK side

Originally Posted by ddt View Post
It wasn't clear from the article, and I frankly thought customs were primarily on entry, to impose import duties. Operation Stack, according to the wiki page, is mainly due to problems getting the lorries out of the country: no ferries due to bad weather, electrical failure in the Chunnel or French strikes.
They may be primarily on entry but there are still checks in exit.

Operation Stack is currently primarily used for reasons you mention - if Dover Customs grind to a halt then it'll be another reason to trigger Operation Stack.
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Old Today, 12:14 PM   #3030
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Operation Stack is going to be a permanent fixture on the M20.

Why do you think that?

Not exporting anything would reduce that,
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Old Today, 03:50 PM   #3031
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
I presume you meant UK there. But I agree with your points.
Gah...!
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Old Today, 03:58 PM   #3032
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
And at the time of the Scottish Indyref, and the campaign, Cameron had already publicly pledged that it would get into the election manifesto.
Yes, in contrast to Labour ruling it out as early as 2010 and maintaining that line subsequently.

Quote:
Eyeballing that graph, the two trend lines intersect at week 17 in 2014, i.e., end of April (I think each fine grey line stands for two weeks). Even at its best, mid-2015, Remain was at 45% and Leave at 38%. Given the wild variation in polling outcomes, that's firmly within the margin of error. You shouldn't oversell this point. Remain never seemed a done deal, and specifically when you look at the polls in Q2 of 2014 - i.e., at the time of the Indyref campaign - you see several poll outcomes where Leave won. That certainly doesn't say "no is never gonna happen".
Sure, but overall Remain still looked more likely than a Leave vote - certainly more than AGG is claiming in retrospect.

Quote:
Actually, that point has been hugely oversold. The Spanish PM was also on record that he would not be the spoilsport for a Scottish accession, a fact that the British press didn't publish.
Which doesn't alter the fact that an independent Scotland would still have to apply to joint the EU.

Quote:
Fair enough about (a), Labour was in the lead at the time. But you're overselling the trend in Brexit polling which was not that convincing. I count in that graph at least 5 individual polls in the months before the Indyref where Leave outpolled Remain.
Perhaps, but AGG's claim that Brexit was effectively a certainty at the time of the Scottish referendum is overselling in the opposite direction.
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Old Today, 04:17 PM   #3033
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Sure, but overall Remain still looked more likely than a Leave vote - certainly more than AGG is claiming in retrospect.
I haven't closely looked at what AGG claimed, but yes, Remain looked more likely - but only slightly.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Which doesn't alter the fact that an independent Scotland would still have to apply to joint the EU.
Yes. But given that Scotland was already part of the UK and thus the EU, the whole time-consuming process of complying with the 'acquis' that other countries had to go through would not apply and it would essentially boil down to a political vote from the existing EU members. That could easily be resolved within the timeframe that the Scottish independence itself would take. In case of a vote in favour of independence, Scottish admission to the EU would be much, much less complicated matter than untangling the UK inheritance between Scotland and rest-UK.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Perhaps, but AGG's claim that Brexit was effectively a certainty at the time of the Scottish referendum is overselling in the opposite direction.
I agree.

As I remember from the time, the Better Together campaign claimed that the only way for Scotland to remain within the EU was to remain within the UK. And given all of the above, that certainly was also huge overselling.
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Old Today, 04:35 PM   #3034
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Cameron promised a referendum if a Tory government was elected, but at the time most pundits were predicting no overall majority for any party. Cameron most likely thought he would never have to deliver on his promise.
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