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18th October 2016, 02:26 AM | #321 |
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I too find your last post very clear Smart Cooky, Apart from the deletions about who was lying (this comes from the “never ascribe to malice what can be best explained by stupidity,” theory I mentioned.) I wonder what is being done. This case makes me impatient because there is no one in their swinging haymakers at those that dance on pins. A new, concise, public appealing, RPOM application that amongst tight and clear points asks for a Court directive as the position in Law as to recanted evidence fundamental to a conviction. I know that an application of this type is not directed to the Court but I think that is where it is accepted now those turned down for RPOM can go, accordingly asking for such points or directives on Law is important from the outset. RPOM applications are traditionally cap in hand and that is not their design because the Magna Carta dispensed with such royal prerogatives and denial to the Courts. if a petitioner has valid legal points it shouldn't be for the cabinet of the day to pick over them, but to send them on. I think it also important that SW faces a further injustice, being required to admit guilt before leaving prison, this to is also a reason why he should be be allowed to take new evidence to the Court for it to be judged in the way the PC have set down what new evidence actually is. Would be interesting to know if anything similar has been to the PC in reference to being denied the opportunity for release in case that has relied on evidence which has been recanted, along with other cases where science has progressed opinions and methods superseded by time.
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27th November 2016, 01:05 PM | #322 |
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In the court of public opinion, only 23% of Kiwis think Scott Watson did it.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11754860 If only there were a system where people could vote for things they believe in... |
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27th November 2016, 02:18 PM | #323 |
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The idiocy of lay crime watchers in New Zealand is boundless.
I am a slow learner, I am just catching up. By the way, the only panel worth watching would be Scott Watson, Donald Anderson and Guy Wallace. Everyone involved in analysing this case agrees Scott Watson was on shore at 3 30 am, and Everyone involved in analysing this case agrees there were only two men who might drive water taxis at this time or later. Everyone agrees Scott Watson was on his boat before dawn. Go figure how tough this one is to crack. |
14th December 2016, 09:12 PM | #324 |
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Denied parole again. He never met them (so can show no remorse) claims Watson.
What was he doing on january 1. Witnesses saw him sail in to Eerie Bay in a blue and white boat January 2 if Wishart is to be believed. Gerald Hope found him evasive about his activities January 1. Who do we believe in this extended saga? |
18th March 2017, 04:36 PM | #325 |
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Fixit sent me this for comment
(Para 86). Ms McDonald deals with the 2 hairs said to be have found on the Blade. This was for her, and the Justice Minister of the time, evidence that held together the Crown case weakened in many ways since the trial, before a positive position for the Ketch could be submitted. Unfortunately, Ms McDonald completely omitted from her first report and supplementary that ESR changes post the Watson trial include samples and exhibits not to housed together let alone examined contemporaneously. In addition: The hairs were not found on The Blade at all. The hairs were not sighted by any witness who examined The Blade for forensic evidence, noting that ‘blond hairs,’ blood, semen samples, would have been a priority for searchers. The hairs were also not confirmed as found on a blanket taken from the Blade as Ms McDonald and the Minister state. In first searches of the hairs bagged, having said to have come from the blanket the longest were 3inches (75mm). 11 were chosen including both brown and yellow blond hairs for DNA testing, none of which returned a positive result from the DNA test. In modern times the hairs from the blanket would have been counted and the number recorded. Unfortunately, that did not happen in the Watson case. However, the length of the longest hairs was recorded, allowing a specific reference point which follows. The ‘2 hairs’ were found after the plastic bag was emptied onto a table in which ‘samples’ from a hair brush just delivered by police from the home of Amelia Hope were examined. The first of the 2 hairs found was 6inches (150mm), the second hair was 8 inches (200mm.) The length of any hairs not being found before the sample bag was brought to the laboratory was consistent with no longer hairs being found during the cabin search of the Blade. The searches both on The Blade and in the Laboratory, would both of necessity be looking for long blond hairs as Amelia Hope had long hair which was dyed blond. No New Zealander would not have seen the released photos of her and Ms Vintner would not be an exception. This presented potential ‘confirmation bias’ as set out in the Sean Doyle report and the PCAST, which if known may have been reason to reject the evidence or provide a warning to the Jury that the contemporary model is that the blanket and hairs would be sent to a laboratory as being from an anonymous source. The same would apply to the brush hairs being sent to a different laboratory without historical evidence of source resulting in no opportunity for confirmation bias or contamination. The absence on DNA results of 11 hairs should be compared to 2 hairs not found earlier which did give DNA on a probability basis. The 2-hairs were found the same day sample hairs taken from a comb in the Hope home were delivered to the laboratory by police. These hairs were also not counted but do have a specific reference point in that after the ‘brush’ bag was opened on the same work space as the blanket hairs were being re-examined the blanket hairs were suddenly found to have contained 2 longer hairs than which had been among those hairs that had been measured previously. The probability of 2 hairs being found on the same day as a third search of the blanket hairs when it happens that further hairs from a separate source were taken to the same laboratory and resulted in a ‘fresh’ find on a 3rd search of the blanket hairs is also a dominating fact for any probability testing. The hairs were never positively identified as coming from Amelia Hope but could have been from her sister who ‘shared’ the same brush (check this detail) or any other female in their same mitochondrial line. Hair DNA tested is inconsistent throughout the length of a hair and according to the area from where the hair originated. That Ms Vintner of the ESR in cross examination confirmed that ‘contamination (of the hairs) would have to be considered.’ From a correspondent: First they were bleached blond, one was 6 inches long 150mm, the other 8 inches 200mm. In previous searches of the hairs and tiger skin blanket, the longest hairs found were 3 inches 75mm. 11 were chosen including both brown and yellow blond hairs for DNA testing, none of which returned a positive result from the DNA test. The only DNA test that tied the hairs to Olivia was the $70,000 mitochondrial(mDNA) tests done in the UK but it only proved the hair came from one or other of the two girls no more. The nuclear DNA testing was useless and in spite of some junk science, the multiplying of two totally separate tests both with out reagents to confirm results meant the hairs could have come from Amelia or Olivia or any other person sharing the same mDNA. The other test done, one of the hairs was microscopic comparison where the scientist would claim that hairs matched the sample hairs from the Hope home. Again, this is now totally discredited as DNA has resulted in exoneration's where hair comparison was a major factor in the conviction. Tests done by the NAS for the US Dept of Justice revealed that the "experts" could not even reliably match two halves of the same hair, and could match hairs from totally unrelated people from different parts of the Country. Microscopic comparison can identify between races and parts of body hair, but head hairs vary depending on the part of the head they are from.))) |
3rd May 2017, 01:06 PM | #326 |
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‘Are peer reviewed tests on DNA identification from a lab acceptable as evidence if the controls are unavailable from the original Lab tests? Also, is it significant information to provide the reviewer with any possible concerns/issues about the possibility of contamination arising at the time of original testing, or evidence gathering?’
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22nd September 2017, 04:12 PM | #327 |
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More from Mike Kalaugher
He (Mike Kalaugher) reviewed the statements and sketches of the other witnesses on the water taxi and compared them to the known positions of certain objects, such as the jetties and the Tamarack. One of the witnesses, told police about how long it took to travel between the various points. "Assuming a reasonably straight track between points and a consistent speed of the Naiad it is possible to convert times to distances," Kirkwood swore in an affidavit. Based on those estimates, he calculated the speed of the water taxi as being around three knots, which was consistent with what Wallace said. "This lends weight to her [the witness's] estimates." By using that speed and the time she said it took to get from the Tamarack to the mystery yacht (three and a half minutes) and then on to Doctor's Jetty where she and her partner were dropped at (two minutes), Kirkwood was able to draw arcs from the known points of the Tamarack and the jetty. Where those arcs overlapped gave an area where the mystery yacht should be - and it was not where the Blade was. Kirkwood also examined the sketch and statements of the other witness on the water taxi. It showed the track of the water taxi from the Furneaux jetty to the Tamarack as being on a 70-degree angle. "The actual track is 80 degrees, making [his] estimate only 10 degrees in error. This shows his bearings are good estimates." The witness's sketch then plotted a 55-degree path from the Tamarack to the mystery yacht - a path which took the water taxi "well seaward" of the Blade, by a minimum of 95m. What's more, the paths both witnesses described matched each other. "In summary, the positions for the unidentified yacht as given by both [witnesses] are consistent with each other, they exclude the yacht Blade and point to an area appreciably to the seaward of the yacht Blade," wrote Kirkwood. This case keeps getting worse and worse. |
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23rd September 2017, 09:50 AM | #328 |
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They just do not seem interested in getting it right, no matter how many people come out and show them how they got it wrong.
They could have at least given him parole last year, ffs. |
23rd September 2017, 10:38 AM | #329 |
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23rd September 2017, 02:32 PM | #330 |
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23rd September 2017, 09:49 PM | #331 |
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He's got no questions to answer because it now prevails there was no case to answer. Not only has the ketch been placed as above but the 2-hair evidence is also in shreads. So why should he answer any questions to you.
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24th September 2017, 01:37 AM | #332 |
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Gerald Hope says he lied to him in the prison interview, but fails to say what the lies were.
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24th September 2017, 01:47 AM | #333 |
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It's hard for either man to objective on the subject more than any of us can understand. With time, as details of the case continue to become plainer that will change. SW was set up big time, from beginning to end. The hair evidence is now a wreck, a ketch is the inlet, no one puts the couple aboard the Blade.
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24th September 2017, 09:07 AM | #334 |
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Apparently, this Maritime Research Group did an in-depth investigation on the mystery ketch. There is a 3 video series on you tube about the report. It is really dry, but the information is remarkable. Why isn't this getting any traction?
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24th September 2017, 10:24 AM | #335 |
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And the Maritime Research Group's report was debunked by none other than Ian Wishart:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
as well as more debunking. Here is the entire article. To quote Samson's analogy from a different thread, I feel like I am at a tennis match, watching one side hit the ball and then the other side hit it back. |
24th September 2017, 02:28 PM | #336 |
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24th September 2017, 06:13 PM | #337 |
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24th September 2017, 11:26 PM | #338 |
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It is partly by witnesses who say they saw the ketch entering Endeavour Inlet around 5.30 pm New Year's Eve.
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24th September 2017, 11:31 PM | #339 |
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His biggest supporter's group as over 2500 members. There were protests in several parts of the country last year - nothing seen like since Arthur Thomas.
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25th September 2017, 09:42 PM | #340 |
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27th September 2017, 03:00 AM | #341 |
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27th September 2017, 07:39 AM | #342 |
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What do you think of Wishart's newest book(s), "Elementary?" I listened to one of his talks and he is quite convincing as to why it was Watson.
Up until then, I had only really heard and understood the case against it being SW. Wishart says he has the police file. He goes back through all the original statements to the police and lays out a case against SW. I might have to buy the book. |
27th September 2017, 01:06 PM | #343 |
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There are two books both on kindle I think.
Definitely worth reading for the transcripts. Donald Anderson is the key witness. Did he take Scott to the Blade around 3 30 am? Keith Hunter wrote a book Trial by Trickery, and nominates the wrong water taxi driver, John Mullens. Donald Anderson had already taken Mullens to his own boat, well before Hunter declares Scott to be still on shore. Fundamental contradiction that makes Hunter unreliable. Ampulla, help solve the case. |
30th September 2017, 01:21 PM | #344 |
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Oh, please.
Protests involving exactly how many people in total in those three cities? Dozens? Hundreds even? Did not make a ripple. Books? How many copies sold compared to Pat Booth & Karam's books? Sure, Watson has supporters, but the injustice has never grabbed the public attention in the way those previous cases did. If you are deluding yourself that similar numbers support Watson, you are dreaming. Even the absurd business of Corrections disallowing the interview made no real waves. Widely reported, but the public outrage was no higher than background noise. I'd even go as far as to say Tamihere has a higher profile in the public mind. I have no idea why Watson lacks the popularity of others, but I'm stating facts when I'm describing his position in Average Kiwi's thoughts. |
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30th September 2017, 01:24 PM | #345 |
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Pretty well the sme as I think of all his other books:
Conspiracist drivel written by a creationist dickhead whose regard for "truth" extends to how many copies he thinks he can sell to his deluded and gullible supporters. He's a classic stopped clock - right occasionally. Even if he has the police file - big deal. The pigs in this country couldn't get it right if the murderer left a signed note and DNA sample. We may not have a completely corrupt police force, but we definitely have a thick as pig **** one. |
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1st October 2017, 02:12 AM | #346 |
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Curate's egg.
Wishart is the most problematic scholar. He solves the Swedes then has Heidi on Kawau Island weeks later, blonde and catatonic. The interviews and transcripts in the Elementary books are gold mines for rational thinkers, but the correct conclusion has me stumped. |
1st October 2017, 04:05 PM | #347 |
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Keith Hunter's book was a best seller. The last TV doco had a very high audience. It remains no other case in the modern era has seen street protests. I expect the interest will increase.
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11th August 2018, 11:05 PM | #348 |
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There have been a some interesting developments in this case, concerning a man named Paul James Bennett.
Any Kiwis who follow crime reporting in New Zealand will know about this guy. He's a convicted fraudster who was deported from Australia in 2016 and immediately arrested at the airport on arrival. He is currently on trial in Christchurch for numerous charges; http://courtnews.co.nz/2016/06/27/no...-paul-bennett/ 48 charges alleging offending all over New Zealand, from Northland to Wanaka. They allege he has dishonestly used documents, caused people to act on forged documents, and stolen various high value items. He is also charged with stealing a Cutter yacht valued at $145,000, but it is the charge of repeatedly raping a 15 year old girl having used drugs to subdue he that interested me the most, because it shows that fraud and theft are not the only strings in this man's bow. Back in 1997 he had just returned from serving four years in a London prison for offences there. He set up Bay Aviation Ltd in Tauranga with two helicopters that he stole and shipped/smuggled out of the USA, He also set up Bay Contracting Ltd (also in Tauranga). Among other things, he conned a farmer out of a $million by selling a helicopter he did not own, took $186,000 from his parents supposedly to buy helicopter blades, refinanced earthmoving equipment and another helicopter (again, that he didn't own) through Budget Finance and Broadlands Finance for approx $800,000. He also scammed other people for helicopter parts to the amount of around $750,000. When it all started to catch up on him, he disappeared to Australia. However, it is the part of his life before he fled to Australia (around 1999) that is of most interest followers of the Scott Watson case. Some time before the end of 1997, Bennett had managed to steal about 1.3 tonnes of "weed" from Black Power (a notorious NZ Gang). On the morning of New Years Eve 1997, Bennett motored into Erie Bay from Picton on a yacht, unloaded most of the weed he had on board picked up his cash and sailed to to Endeavour Inlet arriving at around 3pm. The yacht he was on dropped anchor 150 metres straight off the end of the Endeavour Inlet Jetty and he got a water taxi to shore. He went to the bar at Furneaux Lodge and got a drink then went and sat on an upturned dingy and sold weed for about the next 4-5 hours. Then, he went to Furneaux Lodge, bought dinner and settled in around 8:00 pm for a night's drinking at the bar drinking bourbon until the bar closed. Does any of this sound familiar? Well it should, and especially so, when you see the boat he sailed in on. 1. The yacht is a very close match for the description of the ketch given by witnesses at Endeavour Inlet, including Guy Wallace. 2. The yacht was anchored 150m off the end of the Endeavour Inlet Jetty. The jetty is about 40m long, so that puts it very close to where Guy Wallace said he dropped of Ben, Olivia and the "scruffy man" 3. The description of the "scruffy man" is, about 174cm tall, wiry build, dark hair, weather-beaten, aged about 30-35 at the time. Paul James Bennett is 175 cm tall, and at the time was described as strong, slender build. In 1998 he turned 35 years old. 4. The time at which Bennet was in the Furneaux Lodge bar drinking, and what he was drinking, is consistent with witness descriptions. It also puts him in the bar when Scott Watson was still on the Mina Cornelia (photographed at around 8:30). The whole case against Scott Watson required two facts to be true 1. Scott Watson and the "scruffy man" drinking at the bar are one and the same person. 2. The only ketch at Endeavour Inlet is "Alliance", and that there was no other "Mystery Ketch". Both of these legs may well have been chopped off. |
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11th August 2018, 11:42 PM | #349 |
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OMG!! Good work, Cooky! Now that's a boat! I remember Ian Wishart insisting that witnesses (can't remember their names) saw only the blue and white Chinese junk. What Ian Wishart didn't tell was that the two witnesses already new the blue and white Chinese junk and the other boat (the mystery ketch) that they saw was so amazing that the took their dingy out to sail around it. It stood out that much. That looks like it!!
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12th August 2018, 02:44 AM | #350 |
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Well, much as I would like to take credit for this, the vast majority of the work was done by someone else. All I did was do a little research into Bennett's background and criminal history.
BTW, the "Chinese Junk" was "Alliance". While some people might call it a ketch, I think it better fits the description of a Yawl, with the mizzen mast set much closer to the stern, aft of the rudder post. Alliance Also, as you rightly point out, "Alliance" was well known in The Sounds, and there were witnesses who saw both "Alliance" and the mystery ketch; these witnesses were boaties, who know the difference between a Yawl, with its mainmast set amidships and it mizzen set behind the rudder post, and a ketch with it mainmast set further foreward and it mizzen set just behind the quarterdeck. This might look much the same to the average punter, but to a yachtie, the difference sticks out like a pair of canine gonads. |
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If you're not a scientist but you think you've destroyed the foundation of a vast scientific edifice with 10 minutes of Googling, you might want to consider the possibility that you're wrong. Its TRE45ON season... convict the F45CIST!! |
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12th August 2018, 02:30 PM | #351 |
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I've read about Paul Bennett previously, but after that none of the other links to the Watson case are proved. There are also considerable problems with them. The position in which your sources placed the mystery ketch has been copied from the book the Marlborough Mystery by Mike Kalaugher. So fixing on Bennett's uneviable past, quoting an Eerie Bay rip off of dope for which there is no proof, using the plotted ketch position and so forth doesn't advance the case at all, neither does the photo (which however would certainly need verification before being included or discounted - though it does not fit witness descriptions.) The Eerie Bay 'patch' was found complete and the 'owner' charged. There are several possible explanations of who the mystery man in the bar might have been, however it is by no means clear that it was in fact a single man. I know you have been a supporter of the case for a long time, however there have recently been 'efforts' to solve it which rely on unreliable material and in some cases down right lies. Alliance was not a ketch but rather a scow, the legend on the boats in and around Furneaux Lodge at midnight include 4 ketches that have been identified (with the scow included in that number convienently by police). The fifth left off, over which the questions continue to burn. |
13th August 2018, 07:11 AM | #352 |
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.. never mind
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14th August 2018, 03:27 PM | #353 |
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14th August 2018, 03:44 PM | #354 |
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28th June 2020, 05:41 PM | #355 |
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Scott Watson allowed to appeal some parts of the evidence, particularly the two hairs found on his boat.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/...ourt-of-appeal |
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28th June 2020, 11:15 PM | #356 |
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28th June 2020, 11:59 PM | #357 |
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29th June 2020, 01:04 AM | #358 |
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29th June 2020, 01:47 PM | #359 |
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30th June 2020, 03:55 AM | #360 |
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Even if the hairs were Olivia's, and were actually on the blanket, it still doesn't mean that she was ever on the boat.
I have told his story before and will likely do again at some stage, but I have a female friend and I have previously found her hair in my bed. The doesn't mean that she was ever in my bed, but that case could be made based on the evidence. In reality I spent time at her house and sat in chairs that she had previously sat in. Her hair had transferred to the chair when she was in it, then to my clothing when I was, and I carried it on my clothing to my bed, transferring it when I sat on it. It is entirely plausible that Olivia likewise transferred some hairs to a chair at the Lodge and then Watson later sat in the same chair, transferring the hairs to his clothing, and from there transferred them to the blanket on the boat entirely innocently. The case has too many holes in it, his lawyer also screwed up but not putting on a defense. The Judge made a few gaffs too. As a whole the entire thing was a sham and a shambles. |
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