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Old 23rd April 2017, 03:48 PM   #41
casebro
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I don't recall you being an anti-vaxxer.

Almost no one dies from a flu shot, so all you need is a couple deaths from flu to make the vaccine beneficial. Anti-vaxxer web sites claim any death paid for out of the Vaccine Injury and Compensation Act is a confirmed death from the vaccine but that is not true. For example if you get GBS within 12 weeks of a flu shot you can claim it was vaccine related. But when large data sets are looked at, there is no greater rate of GBS among people getting flu shots vs those that don't.

I refuse to drive clicks on the site so I'm not going to post the link but one of these sites claims in the US: "89 of the 113 cases settled were for injuries and deaths due to the flu vaccine."

So 89 people supposedly met the criteria for a flu vaccine related reaction. That's out of more than 100 million doses of vaccine given.



But we do know from half a century of data that the vaccine prevents deaths and rarely causes it.

Death of Teen Athlete a Reminder That Flu Can Kill AnyoneThat's a low estimate and doesn't include otherwise healthy adults.
And all of this edited quote is appeals to emotion.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 03:58 PM   #42
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Or, lessee, 100,000,000 doses prevents 12,000 deaths. That means one death is prevented per 8,000 doses? Lionking's vax has a 7,999/8,000 chance of being useless. Worth the swollen arm?
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Old 23rd April 2017, 04:04 PM   #43
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I think jabs in the arm can have adverse effects for various reasons. I remember as a child in the 70s, my left arm cramped up and was sore after a vax jab. That being said, I am pro-vax.

I also had chicken pox as a child. Don't remember it, but I have a pockmark on my forehead.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 05:38 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
So go ahead, easily disprove it. How many deaths were in the low risk group?
I posted citations with the data. I take it you made no effort to look?

There only needs to be more deaths from the flu than from the vaccine. Now you've moved the goal post beyond what I asserted.

There is always a risk of another 2009-like variant which was especially serious for pregnant women and young people including many without risk factors.

From the news link:
Quote:
Linton, who died last week in Baltimore, is among the dozens of often perfectly healthy children who die from influenza every year in the U.S.
From the second CDC link children younger than 5 constitutes a risk group, no other chronic condition needed.

Video: Every year 20,000 kids under age five are hospitalized from flu. Obviously that morbidity alone makes the vaccine better than no vaccine.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 06:04 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Or, lessee, 100,000,000 doses prevents 12,000 deaths. That means one death is prevented per 8,000 doses? Lionking's vax has a 7,999/8,000 chance of being useless. Worth the swollen arm?
Did you miss my post where I pointed out that I've been hospitalised twice with pneumonia? The last time for over a week. Next time it could kill me.

Yes, worth the swollen arm.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 07:00 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Or, lessee, 100,000,000 doses prevents 12,000 deaths. That means one death is prevented per 8,000 doses? Lionking's vax has a 7,999/8,000 chance of being useless. Worth the swollen arm?

Does this include high-risk groups?

How many deaths are prevented for healthy low-risk people? I also wonder how it is determined that it was the vaccine that saved them.

I'm more interested in the low-risk group rate, that is what seems to be in question here. I have never had a flu shot but I'm otherwise vaccinated - 49 years old.

I don't know that I've ever had the flu. Most people think they have "the flu" anytime they throw up while sober.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 07:02 PM   #47
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Round here it's a synonym for the common cold.

But there's a big difference between a rhinovirus or coronavirus and influenza. Most people don't get that though.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 07:15 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Or, lessee, 100,000,000 doses prevents 12,000 deaths. That means one death is prevented per 8,000 doses? Lionking's vax has a 7,999/8,000 chance of being useless. Worth the swollen arm?
thats wrong, leaves out hospital stays, ER visits, lost work days and just being sick as a dog for days.well worth a sore arm.yes i get mine each year.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 07:32 PM   #49
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I may have answered my own question about low-risk group mortality rates.

Link
Quote:
That report, published in the Aug. 27, 2010, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), reviewed influenza-related deaths from 1976-2007. “Among adults aged ≥65 years, an estimated annual average of 5,546 (range: 673 in 1978–79 to 13,245 in 2003–04) influenza-associated deaths with underlying pneumonia and influenza causes occurred. The average annual rate of influenza-associated deaths for this age group was 17.0 deaths per 100,000 (range: 2.4–36.7). Deaths among persons aged ≥65 years accounted for 87.9% of the overall estimated average annual influenza-associated deaths with underlying pneumonia and influenza causes,” CDC noted.
According to this, 87.9% of flu related deaths occur in people over 65.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 07:46 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Or, lessee, 100,000,000 doses prevents 12,000 deaths. That means one death is prevented per 8,000 doses? Lionking's vax has a 7,999/8,000 chance of being useless. Worth the swollen arm?
LK's vaccine reaction was to the pneumococcal vaccine, not the flu jab, so your whole scenario is based on erroneous information.


So try again. Worth the time to get a vaccine? Because there was no swollen arm reaction to the flu shot.

Like I said, you are making your own different argument, and not one I made.

If you have kids and only 10 kids/year say, died from flu that had no risk factors. The flu vaccine is cheap and only takes an hour to take the kids in. Do you waste your time?

I would.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 07:48 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Did you miss my post where I pointed out that I've been hospitalised twice with pneumonia? The last time for over a week. Next time it could kill me.

Yes, worth the swollen arm.
He's conflating the flu and pneumococcal vaccines, trying to find a gotcha for my post. He failed.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 07:58 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
... How many deaths are prevented for healthy low-risk people? I also wonder how it is determined that it was the vaccine that saved them.

I'm more interested in the low-risk group rate, that is what seems to be in question here. I have never had a flu shot but I'm otherwise vaccinated - 49 years old.

I don't know that I've ever had the flu. Most people think they have "the flu" anytime they throw up while sober.
Influenza is a respiratory infection, not a GI infection. Wasn't sure from your post you knew that.

In addition to death, there is a risk of being hospitalized or just being miserable for 7-10 days.

Being hospitalized regardless of the reason adds the risk of additional complications.

How we determine the risk prevented by flu vaccine is with very large epidemiological studies comparing people who got the vaccine with people who didn't.

Regardless of the variable efficacy of the vaccine, people are always better off with the vaccine, healthy or not.

If you want to measure the cost of the time to get the vaccine vs the risk, that's hard to determine. In retrospect a lot of people who didn't get the vaccine wish they had.

No one is saying the risk to healthy people is high when looked at in numbers. But the rational way to determine risk/benefit is also to look at the potential outcome.

The vaccine is always the safer bet. The risk is small in numbers but huge in outcome. Rarely, healthy people die from flu. But it's even more rare to die from the vaccine (and in most years that is zero, while it is never zero in any year for flu itself).

Casebro is making the argument that since risk of death from flu is rare, you shouldn't waste your time getting vaccinated.

I am making the argument that the vaccine is safer than risking flu. I don't consider it a waste of time.

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Old 23rd April 2017, 08:01 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
I may have answered my own question about low-risk group mortality rates.

Link


According to this, 87.9% of flu related deaths occur in people over 65.
And if the total number of flu deaths are 10,000 (on the very low end) that means 1,200 people under 65 died from flu.
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Old 23rd April 2017, 10:49 PM   #54
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Because I am a man of my word...

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Old 23rd April 2017, 11:39 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
I don't know that I've ever had the flu. Most people think they have "the flu" anytime they throw up while sober.
Unless they are throwing up due to coughing fits, it's not the flu.

If you have what feels like a cold, but with body aches and significant fatigue, it's probably flu. I always know when I get sore from a workout that shouldn't have made me sore, then later that day my adenoids will become inflamed - it always starts there. I've had it three times in the last 20 years (twice confirmed).
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Old 23rd April 2017, 11:46 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
If you want to measure the cost of the time to get the vaccine vs the risk, that's hard to determine.
If you must drive a few miles to get vaccinated and are healthy, the risk of dying in a car accident on that trip may be higher than the risk of dying from flu in that year.
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Old 24th April 2017, 02:19 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by Modified View Post
If you must drive a few miles to get vaccinated and are healthy, the risk of dying in a car accident on that trip may be higher than the risk of dying from flu in that year.
Oh please. On that logic you would not leave home for any reason at all.
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Old 24th April 2017, 02:46 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Because I am a man of my word...

http://i.imgur.com/5eXfQzem.jpg
How did you take the photo? Did the flu jab give you autistic-telekenetic powers?

Because if so thats worth the autisim and a swollen arm.

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Old 24th April 2017, 08:03 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Oh please. On that logic you would not leave home for any reason at all.
Not if the only goal is to reduce risk of death, and the result is the opposite, certainly. Why is traffic death risk the one people feel free to ignore in any situation? If you're taking a twenty mile round trip on the freeway to buy a single lottery ticket, you might want to think about it. If you have a choice to take local roads or save five minutes by taking the freeway on any trip, you might want to consider it.

Flu shots of course can also reduce severity of the flu and provide some degree of herd immunity, and future risk of death from flu in any particular year is much less predictable than traffic death risk, so the calculation is not so simple.
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Old 24th April 2017, 09:14 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by Modified View Post
If you must drive a few miles to get vaccinated and are healthy, the risk of dying in a car accident on that trip may be higher than the risk of dying from flu in that year.
Sure but, would you be driving someplace else if you weren't going to the clinic?
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Old 24th April 2017, 09:28 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Sure but, would you be driving someplace else if you weren't going to the clinic?

It might be worse if he were staying home instead, thus missing out on the exercise of preparing to go out, going to his car or public transport, walking from the parking lot into the clinic, and so forth, thus contributing to the severe and well-established medical risks of a sedentary lifestyle.
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Old 24th April 2017, 09:37 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Or, lessee, 100,000,000 doses prevents 12,000 deaths. That means one death is prevented per 8,000 doses? Lionking's vax has a 7,999/8,000 chance of being useless. Worth the swollen arm?
1. It's worth it if you were the one in 8,000 whose death was prevented, but you won't know if you are.
2. It's not just death that is prevented - for that one death there will also be numerous non-fatal clinical infections averted, which might include nasty prolonged complications (pneumonia, Guillain Barre syndrome, encephalitis etc)
3. Not all 8000 shots will cause a sore arm. Only a minority will, and Lion King's sore arm was not due to flu vax, but pneumococcal vaccine.
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Old 24th April 2017, 09:18 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Hungry81 View Post
How did you take the photo? Did the flu jab give you autistic-telekenetic powers?

Because if so thats worth the autisim and a swollen arm.
Here's a hint. Only one of my arms is visible in the photo...
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Old 24th April 2017, 09:29 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Here's a hint. Only one of my arms is visible in the photo...
OMG you gained telekenetic powers but lost an arm!? No wonder it hurts!

But really, Meh, still a reasonable payoff especially if you get the lost arm replaced with a cyborg arm. Then you can be like Cable or Luke OR Vader!!

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Old 25th April 2017, 03:33 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Did you miss my post where I pointed out that I've been hospitalised twice with pneumonia? The last time for over a week. Next time it could kill me.

Yes, worth the swollen arm.
I would have the same attitude if I feared getting influenza or worse. As it is, I don't think that I have ever had any of those major illnesses - even though I have been in environments where those viruses abound. Come to think of it, I don't think that I have had a cold for at least a decade. Any illness that I have suffered in my life seldom lasted more than 24 hours.

My good fortune may run out as I get older and I may need vaccines to keep the diseases at bay. In the mean time however, my natural immune system seems to be working just fine and as they say, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it".
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Old 25th April 2017, 05:27 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I would have the same attitude if I feared getting influenza or worse. As it is, I don't think that I have ever had any of those major illnesses - even though I have been in environments where those viruses abound. Come to think of it, I don't think that I have had a cold for at least a decade. Any illness that I have suffered in my life seldom lasted more than 24 hours.

My good fortune may run out as I get older and I may need vaccines to keep the diseases at bay. In the mean time however, my natural immune system seems to be working just fine and as they say, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it".
Getting a cold doesn't mean that your immune system is broke, it means that it's working as designed.

But there's a big difference between getting a cold (a common rhinovirus or coronavirus) and getting influenza. You could be infected with the influenza virus and pass it on to a child who is - for whatever reason - unable to receive the vaccination.

Are you absolutely sure you want that on your conscience?
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Old 25th April 2017, 06:53 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I would have the same attitude if I feared getting influenza or worse. As it is, I don't think that I have ever had any of those major illnesses - even though I have been in environments where those viruses abound. Come to think of it, I don't think that I have had a cold for at least a decade.
Do you work from home? I think at most passing exposure to sick people is different from all-day exposure at work or school. When I started working from home, I went six or seven years without a cold. Then our friends germ-factory kids stayed over for a few weeks. My wife and I both got flu and strep (after a few weeks we got antibiotics for the strep), then a follow-up cold virus as we were recovering from those. We were horribly sick for three weeks, quite bad for two months, and with lingering coughs for a month after that. Then a month later we got another cold. That was a rough year.
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Old 25th April 2017, 07:10 PM   #68
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Well sure, if you never come into contact with any other human beings, you don't need to worry about contagious diseases...
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Old 25th April 2017, 11:20 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Getting a cold doesn't mean that your immune system is broke, it means that it's working as designed.
I thought it was recovering from an illness that showed the immune system is working. It means that the body has learned to manufacture the necessary antibodies to combat that particular strain of infection. Thereafter that strain is no longer a threat to you because your body either contains the antibodies or can manufacture them in short order.

Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
You could be infected with the influenza virus and pass it on to a child who is - for whatever reason - unable to receive the vaccination.
How can I be infected with a strain of a virus that I am immune to?

Originally Posted by Modified View Post
Do you work from home? I think at most passing exposure to sick people is different from all-day exposure at work or school.
I no longer work in an office building with ducted air conditioning (the biggest spreader of illnesses around). Maybe the years that I spent in such an environment is the reason my immune system is the way it is now.

Currently my biggest source of potential infection is shopping centres (they are all air conditioned) and sick relatives - especially children.
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Old 25th April 2017, 11:46 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
... How can I be infected with a strain of a virus that I am immune to?
In some cases people without symptoms are still infected and can still pass on the virus.

But say you haven't been infected with influenza in years. I hear that all the time. It doesn't hold up to scrutiny. If you are exposed, chances are high you will be infected. The fact you've escaped exposure is no guarantee that will be true year to year.

It may not be air conditioning so much as door nobs, phones and keyboards. As for the grocery store, in 2009 before the vaccine was distributed I tried to avoid any exposure. It became apparent how futile that was when the bagger with a cough touched every one of my food items putting them in the bags.

I obsessively wash my hands when I get home and before I eat or fix food. That plus an annual flu vaccination has been successful in my case keeping me well. But working in infectious disease I have a healthy respect for microorganisms.

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Old 26th April 2017, 12:00 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I thought it was recovering from an illness that showed the immune system is working. It means that the body has learned to manufacture the necessary antibodies to combat that particular strain of infection. Thereafter that strain is no longer a threat to you because your body either contains the antibodies or can manufacture them in short order.


How can I be infected with a strain of a virus that I am immune to?
You're confusing possession of a functional immune system with actual literal immunity. The fact that you have a working immune system does not confer 100% guaranteed immunity to any damn thing. A person can get chicken pox twice in their life, and I know people that has happened to.

How can you be immune to a strain of virus that you haven't been infected by? Only by being vaccinated against it.
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Old 26th April 2017, 12:08 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
But say you haven't been infected with influenza in years. I hear that all the time. It doesn't hold up to scrutiny. If you are exposed, chances are high you will be infected. The fact you've escaped exposure is no guarantee that will be true year to year.
Especially since the virus strain is different every year. Even if you had been exposed to one strain last year, it doesn't mean that you won't be exposed to, and infected by, a different strain this year.

Perhaps Skeptic Ginger can confirm or deny this tidbit of information that I heard somewhere:

Because the influenza virus mutates so quickly, no-one knows exactly what strain will be prevalent in any given year. So they hedge their bets by vaccinating against last year's strain. This is one reason why the flu vaccine is less effective than some other vaccines that protect against less-quickly-mutating viruses.
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Old 26th April 2017, 04:11 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Especially since the virus strain is different every year. Even if you had been exposed to one strain last year, it doesn't mean that you won't be exposed to, and infected by, a different strain this year.

Perhaps Skeptic Ginger can confirm or deny this tidbit of information that I heard somewhere:

Because the influenza virus mutates so quickly, no-one knows exactly what strain will be prevalent in any given year. So they hedge their bets by vaccinating against last year's strain. This is one reason why the flu vaccine is less effective than some other vaccines that protect against less-quickly-mutating viruses.
Influenza is different each year due to the way the virus can reassort its 7 segmented genes rather than due to mutation. Once inside its host it can mix its genes with other flu strains so a pig flu can mix with a bird flu etc. Mutations do occur but they are usually small changes and not the reason for the seasonal variation.

Each year the seed strains are selected based on what is circulating around the globe (this is monitored); for northern hemisphere vaccine, the strains arriving from the southern hemisphere are identified (and vice versa I think). A committee sits to decide what each strain should be included in that year's vaccine. A new vaccine is made and licensed every year.

I've had the vaccine every year for the last 20 years.

Last edited by Capsid; 26th April 2017 at 04:16 AM.
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Old 26th April 2017, 04:19 AM   #74
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Meanwhile the swelling has almost gone. Still a little tender, but not so bad.
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Old 26th April 2017, 07:52 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Hands and feet and the symptoms are not, "my hands are a little numb".

Also, reexamination of the data showed it was only questionably related to flu vaccine and only in a couple years since the 70s.
And only in a very limited number of cases.

When we had the discussion about the extent, we concluded at the time based on the original epidemiology studies that the total number of cases of GBS caused by the flu vaccine was on the order of something like 18 - 32, total.

That was for the swine flu vaccine that was discontinued due to it's causing GBS.
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Old 26th April 2017, 08:01 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
It may not be air conditioning so much as door nobs, phones and keyboards.
This is why when in public I try to open doors using the non-shiny part of the handle or door frame. I figure I'm getting exposed to the germs of the few people per day who do the same, rather than the hundreds who don't.
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Old 26th April 2017, 08:08 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Well sure, if you never come into contact with any other human beings, you don't need to worry about contagious diseases...
In public, you're usually not exposed much. In an office or school, you're touching things infected people touch and breathing air they've coughed into over and over all day long. The source of all my recent colds/flus/streps can be traced to people I know and spent significant time with. For the last two colds, both sources became infected after a plane trip.
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Old 26th April 2017, 05:16 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
....
Perhaps Skeptic Ginger can confirm or deny this tidbit of information that I heard somewhere:

Because the influenza virus mutates so quickly, no-one knows exactly what strain will be prevalent in any given year. So they hedge their bets by vaccinating against last year's strain. This is one reason why the flu vaccine is less effective than some other vaccines that protect against less-quickly-mutating viruses.
It's not correct.

Flu virus is continually being sampled around the world. Based on the RNA analysis the WHO recommends which strains to include in the vaccine twice a year, one for the northern hemisphere and 6 months later for the summer hemisphere and so on.

It is true that the vaccine production starts 6-9 months before the influenza season. Because of that, the strains that actually do circulate can differ from the vaccine strains.

On average, flu virus strains have about an 18 month cycle, but the range is wide and ever under new influences. With no other variables, a strain will infect a susceptible population. By the second season go round, fewer people are susceptible, and newer strains have more potential hosts. By the next season new strains will dominate and the strain from 18 months ago will fade out.

Then there are all the variables: recombinant strains, new strains emerging from animal hosts, vaccine effectiveness can affect a strain's chances of being dominant that year, world travel, population migration and so on.

So there is no guarantee we'll get it right every time. But the idea it's a guess or simply last year's strains is not correct.
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Old 26th April 2017, 05:20 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
Influenza is different each year due to the way the virus can reassort its 7 segmented genes rather than due to mutation. Once inside its host it can mix its genes with other flu strains so a pig flu can mix with a bird flu etc. Mutations do occur but they are usually small changes and not the reason for the seasonal variation.

Each year the seed strains are selected based on what is circulating around the globe (this is monitored); for northern hemisphere vaccine, the strains arriving from the southern hemisphere are identified (and vice versa I think). A committee sits to decide what each strain should be included in that year's vaccine. A new vaccine is made and licensed every year.

I've had the vaccine every year for the last 20 years.
I do so respect your knowledge of viruses and rarely would I ever correct you.

But it's incorrect that all new strains are recombinant. They aren't. There is continual genetic drift as with typical RNA viruses that lack repair mechanisms of DNA viruses.

Genetic shifts are indeed responsible for new strains but so is genetic drift.

Influenz antigenic drift
Quote:
Every flu season, the genetic make-up of the dominant strains from the prior year will have drifted, changing the surface structure of those strains just enough to diminish, or even destroy, the effectiveness of the previous year’s vaccine.
Influenza antigenic shift
Quote:
New influenza types emerge from such unpredictable recombination—reassortment—events between human and mammalian or avian viruses. These events occur at irregular intervals.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 26th April 2017 at 05:42 PM.
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Old 26th April 2017, 05:21 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Meanwhile the swelling has almost gone. Still a little tender, but not so bad.
Sounds like an uncomfortable but not unexpected reaction and you'll be fine.
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