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#81 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 14,593
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Hmm, well, not sure why this got moved to Science and Technology, since I was asking about SF, but I guess discussing the RL technology benefits the SF angle too.
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Which part of "Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn" don't you understand? |
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#82 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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#83 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Nelson, New Zealand
Posts: 10,358
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As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. - Henry Louis Mencken - Baltimore Evening Sun, July 26, 1920 |
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#84 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 14,593
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I'm going to somewhat side with Theprestige here. Currently the costs of such a colony are tremendous. Last I heard a figure, it was in the ballpark of 10 billion dollars per colonist, but I can't remember how it was calculated or for what number of colonists.
And we'd need quite a few of them up there to have a viable population to keep the species going. Probably a couple hundred at the very least. We can't even muster a fraction of that money to fix Earth, so I'm not sure how we're supposed to do that. I would also say, ok, let's say we do put a couple hundreds of colonists there, we're gone, and they survive. Then what? Now humanity is stuck in a bunker that decays over time, and probably doesn't even have the means to repair its stuff when it decays. You're not just gonna harvest a few rocks and meteorites and bang together advanced CPUs and photovoltaics, like in SF games. A minimal colony just delays the inevitable by a couple of decades tops, is all I'm saying. If you want it to really survive and maintain tech level long term, you have to also include those machines, and the machines to maintain them, and so on. And the population to operate them all. Just to put it into perspective, TSMC employs 47 thousand people to operate its foundries. You want to have redundant chip foundries so at least they can maintain their computers after we're gone, that's a couple of thousand people up there just for the foundries alone. Add some more for polymer production, concrete, etc, and it's quite the metropolis you need up there, at a cost in the tens to hundreds of trillions for that kind of self sustaining colony. And again, otherwise you're just delaying the inevitable. You'll have some people stuck on mars with no means to maintain their colony, and once it decayed enough, they die too. In the words of a wise man: "Was this trip really necessary, bub?" -- Daffy Duck And let's get into who's gonna operate them. Currently when you go to a doctor, or have a breakthrough in physics, etc, you have the best people selected from a pool of hundreds of millions. But up there, with a modest sized colony, for the whole science and engineering and medicine divisions and so on, you have a pool of maybe a dozen people per year who didn't find chasing skirts and appearing macho to their peers in school more interesting than paying attention in class. What I'm saying is that the first mutant virus or bacteria that they don't already know how to cure, will probably wipe them out because they don't have the sheer combined brainpower to figure out a cure. And they're stuck with it in cramped quarters. And such mutations do happen on a regular basis. Yersinia Pestis for example mutated some nasty plasmid out of being just a harmless soil bacterium at some point. A bacterium which didn't even like being inside a human very much, and for whom killing the human and getting back into the ground was actually an evolutionary advantage. Basically, the TL;DR version is: you don't just need a minimal colony, you need a colony that's big enough to actually be survivable very long term. And I don't think many people grasp how insanely expensive that would be, or what we could do down here with that kind of money. |
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Which part of "Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn" don't you understand? |
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#85 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Nelson, New Zealand
Posts: 10,358
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They were hotlinks, and you should have seen images
...and the rock was a pebble. Anything much bigger would probably have wiped out all life on Earth higher than microbes. All of this is assuming that there is anyone left alive. If there isn't, then all this theorising is down the tubes. How nihilistic. |
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As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. - Henry Louis Mencken - Baltimore Evening Sun, July 26, 1920 |
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#86 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 8,276
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Uh, no. You just shield them. And if you are routinely transporting a lot of people between two orbits you just put another shielded colony in the transfer orbit. We're not going to colonize space with Apollo capsules.
Could you just stop and think for a minute about this? |
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REJ (Robert E Jones) posting anonymously under my real name for 30 years. Make a fire for a man and you keep him warm for a day. Set him on fire and you keep him warm for the rest of his life. |
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#87 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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Hey, as long as you don't try to force me to help pay for your religious belief, we're good.
The funny thing is, I think we probably should colonize Mars at some point. I think that the survival of the human race is a good thing. I just don't think it's sufficient to justify colonizing Mars on the present basis. Somewhat related: In the late 90s, NASA commissioned a study of bush robots from Carnegie-Mellon University. In their final report, the researchers concluded that bush robots were hypothetically amazing and profitable. But they also concluded that the technology to develop bush robots was not mature enough to even begin such an effort. Instead, they recommended that NASA instead focus on advancing several "enabling technologies" that would be required to make bush robots a realistic endeavor. Things like a millionfold increase in computational power, micro-manufacturing, and scalable high-density power storage. Their recommendation reads in part: Fully realized bush robots are so far in advance of available technologies that there is little urgency to pursue their theoretical development now. Doing so is an amusing diversion, and may by chance lead to interesting insights, but is no more likely to lead to practical devices for many decades than other lines of undirected research.I think we're in a similar position regarding Mars colonies right now. There's a lot of other stuff we need to get better at, before we're really in a position to establish a colony on Mars. And we're going to be working on this other stuff anyway. Working on a Mars colony now, before we've figured out the other stuff, would be a waste of effort. And once we figure out the other stuff, establishing a Mars colony will become substantially easier. If you're serious about colonizing Mars, then you should make a list of the necessary enabling technologies. Then shut up about Mars, and put your effort into evangelizing and advancing those enabling technologies. That's how you're going to help ensure the long-term survival of the human race. |
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#88 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Nelson, New Zealand
Posts: 10,358
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__________________
As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. - Henry Louis Mencken - Baltimore Evening Sun, July 26, 1920 |
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#89 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Arcadia, Greece
Posts: 24,059
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Wow. Double wow. No, he hasn't. Shame on you.
He and I have argued against devoting vast resources, likely spanning centuries, into projects that are almost certainly going to fail, for very clear reasons given in the course of the discussion. Resources that would greatly improve our chances of surviving 'down here', rather than being frittered away on pie-in-the-sky plans for a self-sustaining colony on Mars or elsewhere. Meanwhile it looks increasingly like we can't even save our climate even when not threatened by vast incoming space rocks. Start there, eh? Start with the manageable. And if we can't manage that in the next few years then we're definitely in no position to colonise Mars. |
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"Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut |
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#90 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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Well, it didn't work.
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#91 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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Not very expensive at all. Most human colonization to date has been movement into profitable regions: places with better food sources, better mineral availability, etc. People have historically crossed barren deserts, frozen wastelands, and uncaring seas to cash in on the lands of plenty that lay beyond. And that program of migratory colonization has been wildly successful. Humans have prospered. But there is no land of plenty beyond the upper atmosphere - only wastelands more barren and uncaring than anywhere here on Earth. No African cave man ever proposed hiking out into the middle of the Sahara and trying to build a Better Tomorrow there.
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#92 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 8,276
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Adding to the point theprestige just made: The initial bootstrap costs might be high, but no matter whether we're talking colonizing a planet or colonies, the final cost of a self sufficient population is going to be paid almost entirely by that population not by Earth.
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REJ (Robert E Jones) posting anonymously under my real name for 30 years. Make a fire for a man and you keep him warm for a day. Set him on fire and you keep him warm for the rest of his life. |
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#93 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 14,593
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The difference that makes that argument from analogy completely break, is that a base on Mars is NOT the same as just sailing a few people on another continent and they can take it from there.
The difference is that another continent is just as habitable and supporting life as the previous one. Hell, it's even in the same atmosphere. As long as you can hunt and pick berries, and use some dry grass to thatch a hut, you're golden. Mars has none of that, and long term survival will need a hell of a lot more than that. The only thing that would be actually analogous to just sailing to a new continent, would be if we were to find an Earth like planet and go there. Well, even that's not entirely analogous, because crossing the ocean to another continent didn't get you so irradiated that you'll puke your guts and start sprouting cancers by the time you're there. But at least it has SOME relevant thing in common to make the analogy work. |
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Which part of "Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn" don't you understand? |
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#94 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 14,593
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Well, I thought you were already used to the idea that sometimes I'm not very good at thinking about certain things, from my GR threads and such. So it would probably save everyone's time if you just told me what I missed. Otherwise you're just waiting for me to scratch my head, shrug my shoulders, and say "nope, I still don't get it."
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Which part of "Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn" don't you understand? |
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#95 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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#96 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 14,593
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I think he means that once you got the colony past a certain point, the colonists can expand it from there on their own. Which is correct too.
I don't think many people realize how far that certain point is, though. I.e., how insane those bootstrapping costs are. They'll need machine workshops, foundries, fertilizer factories, mines in several places because minerals don't all come clustered in one place, an infrastructure, etc. That said, I'm not even convinced it's that easy to just keep growing. For a start, even the only fertile soil you'll have is the one you brought from Earth. I don't think many people realize that you can't just plop some crops into Martian dust and expect anything to actually grow from there. And you're not going to just grow soil bacteria fast enough to produce more fertile soil. That's another point where the analogy with just sailing on a raft to a new continent breaks down horribly. On another continent you have the soil already there, unless that continent is Antarctica, I guess. On Mars you don't have even that. Or more realistically, you'll be limited to hydroponic farming. But that brings us back to: then you'll have to produce the fertilizers. Hydroponics doesn't mean just planting things in a sponge in water, and forgetting about it. The nutrients for those plants have to come from SOMEWHERE, and unless you have some organic byproducts to plop in there, chemical fertilizers it is. And not just to supplement the soil, like in normal farming. EVERYTHING has got to come from those fertilizers. Nitrates, phosphates, etc. Even the trace elements. Which brings us back to factories and the population to operate them. Not to mention to get those elements in the first place. You're not going to get much nitrogen from the atmosphere for nitrates, for example. Or not without some extensive filtering facilities, and the people to operate them, and the factories to produce the parts to maintain them, etc. Well, this isn't aimed at you specifically, but more to put into context for everyone else exactly what those bootstrap costs mean. |
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Which part of "Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn" don't you understand? |
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#97 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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Yes, and this brings us back to what smartcooky dismissively terms "theorizing". It's actually the things that smartcooky and others who want to colonize Mars should be thinking about, and giving answers to.
My real objection to colonizing Mars isn't that I don't believe in smartcooky and JoeMorgue's religion, but that they're not even bothering to try to answer the questions that need answering. I don't know enough about biology and sociology to know what the minimum stable breeding population of humans is, but I do know enough to know that we'll need to figure that out, if we want a viable Mars colony. So all I can do is "theorize" on that point. But the people who actually want a Mars colony will actually need to come up with a number, and a plan. I'm a romantic. I think that a Mars colony would be ******* cool. If you came up with a plan, and a price tag, I might even pitch in. Not because I buy into the Survivalist religion, but because... ******* cool. But this is not one of those topics where my romanticism overrides my realism. I think that realistically, manned space exploration is a waste of resources and an unnecessary risk. If a private hobbyist wants to spend their surplus wealth on such romantic adventures, be my guest. I'd be pleased as punch if they did some good science while they're at it. But I think the scientific community gets more value for less risk from probots. And I think the Survivalist community would be better served by focusing on the enabling technologies, and letting the idea of Mars colony ripen on the vine a while longer. |
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#98 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 78,358
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I'm sorry, what current ressource level? There's plenty of ore and stuff and people to throw at Mars and every other planet you can think of in the solar system if we want to.
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#99 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 15,978
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So wanting the species to survive is a "religion" now.
*Shrugs* Sure whatever. |
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- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset - "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal - "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC |
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#100 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 78,358
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I'm sorry, I have no idea what you're talking about. A self-sustaining colony could take just a few centuries to complete. How is that too long?
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You seem to be arguing from a stone-cold, nihilistic ideology. Expensive but feasible, is the point. Desirable, even. Crucial, I'd argue. Yes he has. See above. When faced with a Yellowstone scenario, he pointed out that we could survive, paleolithic-style, with a few thousand humans, and that this is ok. For all intents and purposes, that's the end of all of our cultures and civilisations, history and achievements. Outright extinction is not much worse than that. |
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#101 |
Pi
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 16,855
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I go back and forth on this.
you don't think there's sufficient value to have actual human beings within a few light seconds, rather than light minutes, of the probot so it's not relying on automated routines or instructions that will take a relatively long time to obtain due to communications delay? I'm thinking humans in orbit, robots on the planet type thing. |
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Up the River! |
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#102 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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I'm using "religion" as a shorthand for a kind of axiomatic, dogmatic idea. Something that is not tested or proven or supported with evidence, but simply either believed or not believed. Something the belief in which then forms the basis for recommending a certain course of action.
Buddhism is a belief, from which certain actions are understood to follow. But Buddhism itself doesn't follow from anything. You either believe it (and act accordingly) or you don't. 'Survivalism' is a belief, from which certain actions are understood to follow - "get your ass to Mars", in this particular conversation. Let's try this: Instead of complaining about my terminology, why don't you estimate the minimum viable breeding population for humans? You want the human species to survive? That's probably the most important question (after "why?") that you need to answer. Your ongoing unwillingness or inability to answer it leads me to question the sincerity of your belief. Bottom line: In order to achieve your goal of humanity surviving on Mars after losing Earth, you will need to place at least X people on Mars. X = ? |
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#103 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 78,358
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Hey, that's my line!
Anyway, the issue is this: aside from the statistical threats like meteors and volcanoes which might or might not either kill us all or reduce us to a small band of hunter-gatherers (leading to another Arnold quote, this time about crushing your enemy), there's the certainty that, at some point, something will. The solution is simple: have some of your people somewhere else. It also has the benefit of opening new areas of science and exploration, etc. Yes, it's tremendously expensive and difficult, but I'd argue that, faced with certain extinction, it's the only solution, unless you have some idea to shield us from big rocks from the sky or to stop the continents from moving around. |
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#104 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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Lay it out for me. How many centuries is "a few"? What are the steps? How long will each step take? How many people do you need to put on Mars? How much biomass? How long will it take to set up the ecosystem and the industrial base? How will you guarantee the necessary breeding rate? How will you guarantee the needed education and skillsets? Etc.
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It's not like the survivors would forget what they know. It's not like they would rock back onto their heels and stagnate for a million years. It's not like all the books would turn to dust overnight. I think building up our Earthling civilization to its current level has done more to protect |
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#105 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 15,978
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Obviously "more is better" but I do recognize the restraints simple technology puts on this so we have to realistic.
For genetic variation Anthropologist John Moore from University of Florida said the minimum was about 160 people if they were picked very carefully for genetic variation but to be honest by the time anything being discussed becomes viable I think genetic engineering will be viable enough to introduce that level of variation without depending on just a breeding population. As to questions of how many people you need to be "self sufficient" that's harder to answer because... well how much of "civilization" you want to replicate. Just a stable, surviving population... a couple of hundred probably if all there efforts where just into doing what they needed to survive without industry or technological advancements. Truth be told I'd be "happy" with a colony of less than 250 and a really big computer to just hold backups of all the "data" on Mars or under the icecaps of Europe or in a giant Tesla Roadster that Musk shoots into space. That wouldn't be ideal because we need Earth for anything that wasn't raw, pure day to day survival but it would negate at least some of the "Eggs all in one basket" problem. More ideally long term I would like to get a population off Earth that could start to mirror/replicate everything here, if even to a smaller degree. Growing populations (or at least with the ability to grow even if other factors keep them in check), industry, non-bare-essential production, arts, labs, things to actually advance science instead of just maintain it for survival but I do recognize that as much harder. |
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- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset - "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal - "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC |
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#107 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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I think there's *a lot* of value in having humans as close to physically present as possible. I just don't think it outweighs the risk and the cost. Putting a human in Mars orbit puts a human life at risk. That risk can be mitigated, but at a cost. So maybe that human means you can do 100x more science, but at 1000x more cost. And you still have a non-zero risk to human life, that previously wasn't even part of the calculation. That's the kind of trade-off that makes sense in warfare (and perhaps in commerce and art), but not in science.
If it were up to me, I'd scrap the ISS. If we're going to put humans in LEO, we should put them to work in assembly yards, building rockets larger than anything that could lift off directly from the Earth's surface. Use those rockets to send successive generations of bigger, better, probots everywhere we want to go. As we get good at keeping people alive and useful in LEO, as we bring down the risks and costs to something more manageable, then start sending humans to orbit other planets. Where it makes economic and moral sense to do so. Where the scientific benefits of nearby humans is closer to matching the cost and risk of having humans nearby. ETA: One benefit to this program is that it would almost certainly advance many of the enabling technologies the Romantic Survivalists will need. Another is that it would produce a steady and growing stream of scientific data about Mars, at low cost and low risk. This data would be vital to the successful planning and implementation of a self-sustaining Martian colony. |
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#108 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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Which brings us back to questions like, "do what, exactly?" and "do what, in detail?" It's unlikely we're going to have a self-sustaining Martian colony by November 2021. If that asteroid is coming, we're already doomed. On the other hand, 3 years is a long time to prepare to divert the asteroid and/or "shelter in place," so to speak.
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#109 |
Penultimate Amazing
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#111 |
Penultimate Amazing
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#112 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Arcadia, Greece
Posts: 24,059
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In a similar discussion here, some years back, I roughly calculated the number of people that could survive for years in a single alpine road tunnel. It was in the 5-figure range. There are many similar tunnels.
Meanwhile, the 'survivalist' approach here has failed to point out that Mars is just as (more?) likely to be hit by an asteroid, yet lacks the high road tunnels and the easy access to the resources to shove in them to support the people. And the 'tunnel people' would be emerging into a world that has air, liquid water ... Mars as an insurance policy is a bad plan. |
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"Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut |
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#113 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 78,358
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I'm pretty sure you don't need that to understand my point. Or are we at the point where, since you disagree with the proposal, you must always disagree?
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#115 |
Show me the monkey!
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 21,480
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How would those things be prevented and stopped if they happened? On earth we have police forces and punishment/prisons. But we already have inherent problems with corruption and bad cops. It seems to be a problem with common human nature. People with no criminal record will sometimes suddenly commit a criminal act.
If this is somehow solvable with a Mars colony (or even the spaceships going to/from) then whatever methods are to be used ought to be used right now on earth. |
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Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot. |
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#116 |
Penultimate Amazing
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#117 |
Fiend God
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#119 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 31,650
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I would be fascinated by any concrete proposal to stand up a real, self-sustaining Mars colony, starting today and completing in a few centuries.
I would love to see the practical details of what would need to be done over the next 50 years or so, for example. We're at the point where none of that has been forthcoming, from the people - including yourself - who say it can or should be done. Check back with me when the conversation moves past this point, and see if I still disagree with the proposal.
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#120 |
Penultimate Amazing
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