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Old 3rd December 2018, 10:37 AM   #241
Belz...
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Maybe, but probably not:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-22355515
And what are the actual chances of another Toba in the next 1k years?
Why the arbitrary timeframe?

Quote:
Because your argument is predicated upon a Mars colony being more "politically" feasible than apocalypse-proofing Earth. It's your argument.
It doesn't follow from that that I have a detailed budget of the ******* thing. Stop being disingenuous.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 10:45 AM   #242
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Why the arbitrary timeframe?
Because if we don't self-destruct in the next 1k years, our technology will be so different and advanced from where it is today that any plans we make now will be rendered irrelevant.


Quote:
It doesn't follow from that that I have a detailed budget of the ******* thing. Stop being disingenuous.
I didn't ASK for a detailed budget. We're both assuming it will be fantastically expensive, yes?

I'm asking WHO will pay for it because you're arguing that SOMEONE will be more likely to pay for that compared to anyone paying for apocalypse shelters on Earth.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 10:47 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Because if we don't self-destruct in the next 1k years, our technology will be so different and advanced from where it is today that any plans we make now will be rendered irrelevant.
So we should just wait and hope nothing happens. Eggs in a basket, and all. Great.

Quote:
I didn't ASK for a detailed budget. We're both assuming it will be fantastically expensive, yes?
YES, and I have no idea how to finance it, nor do I know how many litres of water to bring on the first mission. That's irrelevant.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 10:48 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
No, that's YOU. I'm perfectly willing to discuss basic and general plans and proposals.
What's the basic and general plan for dealing with the "all known life is specifically adapted to Earth's gravity" problem?
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Old 3rd December 2018, 10:51 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
What's the basic and general plan for dealing with the "all known life is specifically adapted to Earth's gravity" problem?
That's part of the thing I haven't worked out. I don't think there's a good solution for that.

Mind you, constructing space stations, with whatever rotational gravity you want, might be a better solution. Of course they don't have their own ressources and are especially vulnerable to even space dust.

Space is hostile, what can I say?
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Old 3rd December 2018, 10:56 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
YES, and I have no idea how to finance it, ...
But you DO know it'll be easier to finance than apocalypse shelters on Earth?

Lest we forget how we entered this line of inquiry, you said:

Originally Posted by you
With Mars we have all the time in the world to plan a colony. With an apocalypse on earth we don't.
To which I replied (paraphrased) "nope, wrong" and then you shifted your argument to:

Originally Posted by you
Except that no one's going to work on apocalypse shelters on Earth. At least with a mission to Mars we could work towards it in the short term.
And..
Originally Posted by you
it's just human nature. You can sell Mars on several points, one of which is survival of the species, which people won't care about, and the other is exploration, challenge, thrill, etc. You can only sell earth shelters on survival. Since I've already established that people don't care about that, guess which one has greater odds of being made?
Explain yourself on those odds you've calculated.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:00 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
But you DO know it'll be easier to finance than apocalypse shelters on Earth?
I think you misunderstood my argument. It's not about financing. It's about "survivability" not being a good argument to convince anyone to shell money into it unless doom stares people directly in the face, in which case it's too late. Mars can be sold on other arguments in addition to that, making it more likely to happen. It's not about money.

Quote:
Explain yourself on those odds you've calculated.
Oh, now I have to post equations, right?
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:10 AM   #248
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I think you misunderstood my argument. It's not about financing. It's about "survivability" not being a good argument to convince anyone to shell money into it unless doom stares people directly in the face, in which case it's too late. Mars can be sold on other arguments in addition to that, making it more likely to happen. It's not about money.
It would be far and away the most expensive project humankind has ever contemplated. Of course it's about money, among other things.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:11 AM   #249
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
It would be far and away the most expensive project humankind has ever contemplated. Of course it's about money, among other things.
Again, reading comprehension: my point wasn't about money. Christ.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:19 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I think you misunderstood my argument. It's not about financing. It's about "survivability" not being a good argument to convince anyone to shell money into it unless doom stares people directly in the face, in which case it's too late.
"It's not about financing; it's about inability to finance"? LOL

Sigh.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:20 AM   #251
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
"It's not about financing; it's about inability to finance"?
Are you done misrepresenting what I say? What is it about my actual words that is too hard to address? Did I wrong you somehow in the past? The hell's your problem?

I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT FINANCING AT ALL.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:20 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Of course it's about money, among other things.
It's not about money; it's about the lack of money!
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:24 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
So we should just wait and hope nothing happens. Eggs in a basket, and all. Great.
Ideally, those of us who believe in the need should be hard at work on a plan.

One reason the timeframe is arbitrary is because the people that want it done don't seem to be able to even estimate how long it would take. If we at least had an estimate of that, then we could replace the arbitrary time frame with an informed time frame, and work on refining our information from there.

Quote:
YES, and I have no idea how to finance it, nor do I know how many litres of water to bring on the first mission. That's irrelevant.
Number of liters of water will depend on the number of people on the mission, the quality of water recycling gear, and the other known uses of water on space missions (Apollo used water sublimation to cool the EVA suits, for example).

Number of people on the mission will depend on the mission parameters, and we're nowhere near establishing that yet (though I suspect it will necessarily center around constructing the return vehicle and its launch facilities).

But we do know at least the estimate on efficiency and loss rate of current water recycling systems - we can take the figures for the ISS as a starting point for further discussion.

And we do know in general what other things water is used for in space travel. What's the constraint on that number? Number of people? Mass of payload? Something more complex having to do mission and spacecraft design?

This article talks about drinking water on the ISS:

http://mentalfloss.com/article/67854...king-water-iss

The Russian and American sections each recycle about 3.6 gallons of water per day, suitable for drinking. There's also a 350 gallon reserve on board.

Convenience sources on the Internet say that the ISS carries up to 10 people for several months at a time.

So about 7 gallons of drinkable water per day, for 10 people. If you use ISS-tier recycling, then you could send 10 people to Mars with 7 gallons, plus a bit for inefficiency and loss - say a gallon. You might also want a reserve like the ISS. 350 gallons is probably based on the assumption that you only have to keep the crew alive long enough to repair the recyclers, or get resupplied from Earth, or get returned to Earth. A Mars mission may be different, but on the other hand it might work out about the same. Let's say 350 gallon reserve, and expect the mission crew to be able to repair any recycler faults before that runs out.

So. Leaving aside other uses for water in space, let's estimate 7 gallons for a crew of 10, plus a 350 gallon reserve. Or, .7 gallons (recycled) and 35 gallons (reserve) per crew member.

Converting gallons to liters (or litres) is left as an exercise for the reader.

---

We could calculate the weight of the ISS recycler systems, plus the weight of the water, but that's probably not necessary quite yet - especially since we don't yet know how many crew will be going on that first mission.

At some point, though, it might be fun to add up the weight estimates for the various stuff we've identified, and see what the total is. I suspect it'll be more than is feasible to launch directly from the Earth's surface. This would lead to fruitful discussion about methods for launching mission components separately from Earth, and uniting them by the time they land on Mars.

One option would be to pre-place most of the mission components on Mars via unmanned missions. Another would be to assemble a single Mars Transfer Vehicle with everything in Earth orbit before the crossing.

It'll probably end up being a bit of both. Everything needed to send an ISS-equivalent habitat to Mars, with living people inside it, will have to be assembled into a single vehicle before departing Earth orbit. Everything else can probably be sent on ahead in unmanned rockets.

So then we can talk about the challenges of assembling interplanetary spacecraft in Earth orbit, and how we can master that technique. Note that NASA did a similar thing with the Apollo program. They knew the mission would require several crew, and would require orbital rendezvous and docking. So they devised the Gemini program to test and master the necessary techniques. Did they know exactly how Apollo rendezvous and docking would work, at the beginning of the project no? Did they know that they needed to figure it out? Yes. Did they come up with a plan for figuring it out? Very yes.

Last edited by theprestige; 3rd December 2018 at 11:29 AM. Reason: Fixed my math.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:27 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Are you done misrepresenting what I say? What is it about my actual words that is too hard to address?
you: people will pay for a mars colony but not apocalypse shelters on earth

me: who will pay for the mars colony?

you: who cares, and why are you asking for detailed plans?

me: you're the one saying people will pay for one but not the other. I'm asking who is "people" here?

you: fine, something like the US gov.

me: I don't think they will.

you: stop arguing disingenuously

me: I'm not. I don't think they'll pay for it.

you: I'm not saying they will. I wasn't even talking about financing. I was talking about how nobody will pay for apocalypse shelters on earth but they will pay for a mars colony.

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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:27 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Mars can be sold on other arguments in addition to that, making it more likely to happen. It's not about money.
Money is a shorthand for available resources and opportunity costs. And every human endeavor is a question of available resources and opportunity costs.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:27 AM   #256
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Ideally, those of us who believe in the need should be hard at work on a plan.
So only those actively involved in such a project should advocate for it? That makes no sense whatsoever.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:30 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
you: people will pay for a mars colony but not apocalypse shelters on earth

me: who will pay for the mars colony?

you: who cares, and why are you asking for detailed plans?

me: you're the one saying people will pay for one but not the other. I'm asking who is "people" here?

you: fine, something like the US gov.

me: I don't think they will.

you: stop arguing disingenuously

me: I'm not. I don't think they'll pay for it.

you: I'm not saying they will. I wasn't even talking about financing. I was talking about how nobody will pay for apocalypse shelters on earth but they will pay for a mars colony.

That's not the conversation at all. When I asked you to stop misrepresenting me, why did you double down? You're rewording everything I said in order to fit with what you want me to have said, so as to be deliberately boggled at the end. What gives?

I said, for the third or fourth time, that you can't sell people on an idea based on "survival of the species". It's just not something that people will be interested in unless there's some real urgency. That's not an idea about money but about convincing people that the project should be done at all. That's a few steps before financing, actually.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:39 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post

I said, for the third or fourth time, that you can't sell people on an idea based on "survival of the species". It's just not something that people will be interested in unless there's some real urgency. That's not an idea about money but about convincing people that the project should be done at all. That's a few steps before financing, actually.
If it were free, it wouldn't take much convincing for any of it. Money is the one and only obstacle for "working on projects".
Like when you said:
Quote:
no one's going to work on apocalypse shelters on Earth. At least with a mission to Mars we could work towards it
Nobody is going to or even CAN "work on" anything at all without funding/financing/money. Money is what lubes up the gears of technological progress in civilization.

The most "work" you can get is scientists for free or nearly free is calculating stuff like this:
https://www.newscientist.com/article...arbon-dioxide/

The non-funded version of "working on it" is already happening, and it's not looking great. It would take a massive injection of cash to make anything more serious happen.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:40 AM   #259
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
So only those actively involved in such a project should advocate for it? That makes no sense whatsoever.
It's a poor sort of advocate who doesn't even know who's actively involved in the project, what they're working on, how far along they are, what they need, or how the rest of us can help.

What exactly are you advocating that I do? Say I bought into your appeal to emotion about the survival of the human race. What does your advocacy suggest I do next? Is there someone I should write to? Money I can donate? Some crowdsourced analysis project I can join? Or am I just supposed to walk around caring deeply about the idea?

---

I'll probably never convert to Romantic Survivalism, but some attempt at sketching out an actual plan, and then refining that plan by degrees, would go a long way towards getting my support anyway.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:42 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Money is a shorthand for available resources and opportunity costs. And every human endeavor is a question of available resources and opportunity costs.
Thank you. Being the godless commie I am, I was having trouble articulating the mechanisms behind how money really does make the world go 'round. LOL
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:44 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I said, for the third or fourth time, that you can't sell people on an idea based on "survival of the species". It's just not something that people will be interested in unless there's some real urgency. That's not an idea about money but about convincing people that the project should be done at all. That's a few steps before financing, actually.
I think that a lot of people - myself included - are already sold on the idea of humans on Mars. For me, the question of whether now is a good time to embark on such a project is entirely a question of estimating cost, and coming up with a reasonable financing proposal.

I think you're shooting your proposal in the foot by insisting that you can't start talking about cost until you've convinced people to support the proposal without a plan and regardless of cost.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:46 AM   #262
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
If it were free, it wouldn't take much convincing for any of it. Money is the one and only obstacle for "working on projects".
Of course money's going to be important. But not at the point of the reasoning behind the project, unless it's commercial. Do you understand that?

If I say "hey, let's go to see the Taj Mahal!", and you don't even want to go to India, then money's not the issue yet. Once you say "oh, that might be fun!" then we can talk about financing.

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's a poor sort of advocate who doesn't even know who's actively involved in the project, what they're working on, how far along they are, what they need, or how the rest of us can help.

What exactly are you advocating that I do?
I think we're at the point where you're looking for a reason to disagree, and now that we've worked out good reasons to make this project happen, you're looking for other ways to disagree; hence the nuts-and-bolts and financing questions from you and others. No one, and not you, would ever make this argument that someone who is pro-something must have a very good idea of that thing's implementation. It's ridiculous on its face.

Quote:
I think you're shooting your proposal in the foot by insisting that you can't start talking about cost until you've convinced people to support the proposal without a plan and regardless of cost.
Possibly, but I am not qualified to discuss financing anyway, so there's no way for me to enter that discussion.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:47 AM   #263
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
First of all, again, since we're tralking about the general idea, I don't think a precise plan is necessary at this point. The OP asks the question, why are people 'obsessed' with Mars, and I think the answer is that despite the difficulties, it's still the best choice outside of Earth. We've already discussed why, to people for whom the survival of humanity and its culture is important, we should spread out to avoid extinction and, possibly, stagnation. So should we and why are covered.

Second, it's up to the people enacting the idea and putting it into real terms to make a 'plan'. I don't think JFK had to explain the exact launch procedure and LEO docking of the Apollo capsule and LM when making his famous speech about landing a man on the moon. He pitched the idea, asked that it be made to happen, and someone else went ahead with the planning. Same here: there are advocates for this mission and it's not their job to come out with the technical details of the operation, nor are they qualified to do so.

Third, the way I see it, you make a spaceship and load it with people, supplies and equipment, and send it on its merry way. Then you land part of it with said people, supplies and equipment so the crew can begin setting up a temporary camp and lay the foundations of the colony. When they're done they go back to Earth, with maybe some remaining on Mars. Rinse and repeat until the whole project is done and your actual colonists are on site, presumably close to a source of water and other ressources. Earth supplies the colony during the generations where its growth is dependant on the homeworld, until such a time as the colony becomes self-sufficient, and then there's the obligatory revolution and secession, reconciliation, trade and treaties, etc. Again, rinse and repeate for further colonies in the solar system and, old gods willing, further in the stars.
Good summary, Belz.

I found something that might reinforce your third paragraph - the Aldrin Cycler.

Here's a brief extract from Wiki:

The astronauts would meet up with the cycler in Earth orbit and later Mars orbit in specialised craft called "taxis". One cycler would travel an outbound route from Earth to Mars in about five months. Another Mars cycler in a complementary trajectory would travel from Mars to Earth, also in about five months. Taxi and cargo vehicles would attach to the cycler at one planet and detach upon reaching the other.[10] The cycler concept would therefore provide for routine safe and economic transport between Earth and Mars.[11]
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:52 AM   #264
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Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
Good summary, Belz.

I found something that might reinforce your third paragraph - the Aldrin Cycler.

Here's a brief extract from Wiki:

The astronauts would meet up with the cycler in Earth orbit and later Mars orbit in specialised craft called "taxis". One cycler would travel an outbound route from Earth to Mars in about five months. Another Mars cycler in a complementary trajectory would travel from Mars to Earth, also in about five months. Taxi and cargo vehicles would attach to the cycler at one planet and detach upon reaching the other.[10] The cycler concept would therefore provide for routine safe and economic transport between Earth and Mars.[11]
What depresses me is that the most vocal advocates in this thread aren't already introducing things like the Cycler (or Musk's BFR) into the conversation. Instead of handwaving about how he can't be expected to calculate the orbits, he should be celebrating the fact that the general calculations have already been made... by Buzz "Doctor of Orbital Rendezvous" Aldrin.

How could a serious Mars colony enthusiast not already know about Cyclers?
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:53 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
If I say "hey, let's go to see the Taj Mahal!", and you don't even want to go to India, then money's not the issue yet. Once you say "oh, that might be fun!" then we can talk about financing.
Everyone already agrees a Mars colony would be cool. That is not the obstacle.

Financing is the only next step, and colony's lack of plausibility is the barrier to financing.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:54 AM   #266
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
What depresses me is that the most vocal advocates in this thread aren't already introducing things like the Cycler (or Musk's BFR) into the conversation. Instead of handwaving about how he can't be expected to calculate the orbits, he should be celebrating the fact that the general calculations have already been made...
Again, you're being ridiculous by asking for a level of detail that is way beyond this discussion. Maybe you're a tech person who can discuss these things but some of us are not.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:55 AM   #267
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Everyone already agrees a Mars colony would be cool. That is not the obstacle.
Yes, that was, actually, my point. Earth shelters are, definitely, not cool, hence even if they could be better for survivability, good luck convincing people to build them, even if they were super cheap.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 11:57 AM   #268
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Yes, that was, actually, my point. Earth shelters are, definitely, not cool, hence even if they could be better for survivability, good luck convincing people to build them, even if they were super cheap.
Err...they already are building them.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:00 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Yes, I'm sure you can find crazy billionaires. I'm talking about people in general. You know, where most of the votes and financing would come.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:05 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I think we're at the point where you're looking for a reason to disagree, and now that we've worked out good reasons to make this project happen, you're looking for other ways to disagree; hence the nuts-and-bolts and financing questions from you and others. No one, and not you, would ever make this argument that someone who is pro-something must have a very good idea of that thing's implementation. It's ridiculous on its face.
I already disagree with your reason for doing. I'm literally looking for a reason to agree to do it right now anyway.

Again, you're taking a binary approach: No plan vs complete plan. I'm asking you for a series of intermediate steps: What problems do we know about? What problems do we know how to solve? What problems do we still need to figure out how to solve? Etc.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:08 PM   #271
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Again, you're taking a binary approach: No plan vs complete plan.
Now you're downright lying. I've told you before that this is the exact opposite than what I'm doing, and yet you repeat it. I can only surmise that you're trolling me now.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:12 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Again, you're being ridiculous by asking for a level of detail that is way beyond this discussion. Maybe you're a tech person who can discuss these things but some of us are not.
I'm asking for roughly the level of detail that Rincewind provided, regarding Mars cyclers. You're the one that's imagining some sort of impossible standard that you can't meet.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:17 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I'm asking for roughly the level of detail that Rincewind provided, regarding Mars cyclers. You're the one that's imagining some sort of impossible standard that you can't meet.
Now you're contradicting yourself. In one post you accuse me, dishonestly, of having an all-or-nothing view on this, and now you more-or-less correctly say that I have a level of detail below full and yet above nothing. Which is it?
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:20 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Yes, I'm sure you can find crazy billionaires. I'm talking about people in general. You know, where most of the votes and financing would come.
You don't need votes if you have money, and:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/14/rich...ds-wealth.html

Quote:
The wealthiest 1 percent of the world's population now owns more than half of the world's wealth, according a Credit Suisse report.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:22 PM   #275
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
You don't need votes if you have money, and:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/14/rich...ds-wealth.html
Kelly, why are we dancing from one argument to the next? Now that I've explained why you were previously wrong about what I said, you're now switching to the rich when that's, again, not what I was discussing.

You seem really desperate to ignore my actual arguments and make up new ones for me, and I don't understand why.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:29 PM   #276
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Now that I've explained why you were previously wrong about what I said, ...
Where'dja do that?
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:33 PM   #277
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Number of liters of water will depend on the number of people on the mission, the quality of water recycling gear, and the other known uses of water on space missions (Apollo used water sublimation to cool the EVA suits, for example).

Number of people on the mission will depend on the mission parameters, and we're nowhere near establishing that yet (though I suspect it will necessarily center around constructing the return vehicle and its launch facilities).

But we do know at least the estimate on efficiency and loss rate of current water recycling systems - we can take the figures for the ISS as a starting point for further discussion.

And we do know in general what other things water is used for in space travel. What's the constraint on that number? Number of people? Mass of payload? Something more complex having to do mission and spacecraft design?

This article talks about drinking water on the ISS:

http://mentalfloss.com/article/67854...king-water-iss

The Russian and American sections each recycle about 3.6 gallons of water per day, suitable for drinking. There's also a 350 gallon reserve on board.

Convenience sources on the Internet say that the ISS carries up to 10 people for several months at a time.

So about 7 gallons of drinkable water per day, for 10 people. If you use ISS-tier recycling, then you could send 10 people to Mars with 7 gallons, plus a bit for inefficiency and loss - say a gallon. You might also want a reserve like the ISS. 350 gallons is probably based on the assumption that you only have to keep the crew alive long enough to repair the recyclers, or get resupplied from Earth, or get returned to Earth. A Mars mission may be different, but on the other hand it might work out about the same. Let's say 350 gallon reserve, and expect the mission crew to be able to repair any recycler faults before that runs out.

So. Leaving aside other uses for water in space, let's estimate 7 gallons for a crew of 10, plus a 350 gallon reserve. Or, .7 gallons (recycled) and 35 gallons (reserve) per crew member.

Converting gallons to liters (or litres) is left as an exercise for the reader.

---

We could calculate the weight of the ISS recycler systems, plus the weight of the water, but that's probably not necessary quite yet - especially since we don't yet know how many crew will be going on that first mission.
I thought they were planning to get most of their day-to-day water from Mars itself...

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b0af3706e13449

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
At some point, though, it might be fun to add up the weight estimates for the various stuff we've identified, and see what the total is. I suspect it'll be more than is feasible to launch directly from the Earth's surface. This would lead to fruitful discussion about methods for launching mission components separately from Earth, and uniting them by the time they land on Mars.

One option would be to pre-place most of the mission components on Mars via unmanned missions. Another would be to assemble a single Mars Transfer Vehicle with everything in Earth orbit before the crossing.

It'll probably end up being a bit of both. Everything needed to send an ISS-equivalent habitat to Mars, with living people inside it, will have to be assembled into a single vehicle before departing Earth orbit. Everything else can probably be sent on ahead in unmanned rockets.

So then we can talk about the challenges of assembling interplanetary spacecraft in Earth orbit, and how we can master that technique. Note that NASA did a similar thing with the Apollo program. They knew the mission would require several crew, and would require orbital rendezvous and docking. So they devised the Gemini program to test and master the necessary techniques. Did they know exactly how Apollo rendezvous and docking would work, at the beginning of the project no? Did they know that they needed to figure it out? Yes. Did they come up with a plan for figuring it out? Very yes.
Assembling spacecraft in orbit was always part of the plan. BFRs are designed to rendezvous in EO to transfer cargo and fuel. It may well take more than one launch to stock a BFR for a mission to Mars. How many launches do you think it took to build ISS to its current state? How about....

27 Space Shuttle launches
5 Proton launches
3 Soyuz launches
2 Falcon 9 launches

and that was just the key elements

As for rendezvous in orbit, that pretty much a SOP now. How many missions to from the ISS have we seen... There have been 56 expeditions to ISS, and heaven knows how many resupply missions, probably well over 100.

As for those prattling on about a plan, I think NASA's plan is a good starting point.....

https://www.nasa.gov/content/nasas-journey-to-mars


As Tom Hanks' character Jim Lovell said in "Apollo 13" - "All right, there's a thousand things that have to happen in order. We are on number eight. You're talking about number six hundred and ninety-two."
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:34 PM   #278
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Where'dja do that?
You know the posts that boggled you where I explained how I wasn't talking about financing?

There.

Seriously, I'm asking you why you need to tack on your interpretation onto my words and then pretend that this is what I actually said.
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Old 3rd December 2018, 12:36 PM   #279
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
As for those prattling on about a plan, I think NASA's plan is a good starting point.....

https://www.nasa.gov/content/nasas-journey-to-mars
Sorry, cooky, you have to have your OWN plan if you want to be part of the Mars Advanced Colony Advocacy Club (MACAC).
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Old 3rd December 2018, 01:12 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
You know the posts that boggled you where I explained how I wasn't talking about financing?

There.

Seriously, I'm asking you why you need to tack on your interpretation onto my words and then pretend that this is what I actually said.
We keep finding ourselves on this weird merry-go-round, dude.

You said:
Quote:
Once you say "oh, that might be fun!" then we can talk about financing.
And when I said "everyone already agrees it would be fun", you responded:

Quote:
Yes, that was, actually, my point.
..and went on to talk about how not-fun earth apocalypse shelters are and thus how doomed they are as a "project", and then when I pointed out that the billionaire class is already building them, you say you want to look:

Quote:
...where most of the votes and financing would come.
And when I point out that it's that same apocalypse shelter building super-rich class who has most of the money for financing, and they're already building their bunkers, you say:

Quote:
I've explained why you were previously wrong about what I said, you're now switching to the rich
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