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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 31st July 2022, 12:05 PM   #2721
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If the Ukrainians really did hit the Black Sea naval HQ with a drone, that's encouraging. Drones of any size in contested airspace will surely be vulnerable to a competent defense. (That's why the Ukrainians are dubious about the Reaper/Gray Eagle family. "This is not Afghanistan," is their way of summarizing it.)

Some details on that caper would be refreshing.
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Old 31st July 2022, 12:17 PM   #2722
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Interesting twitter thread about why "there is often a gap between Russian weapons on paper versus their performance in the field."

Quote:
There are two primary problems with Russian weapons: integration and cognitive load.
https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/sta...45899871952897

Reading some of the replies and linked threads is useful.
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Old 31st July 2022, 12:28 PM   #2723
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Originally Posted by sackett View Post
If the Ukrainians really did hit the Black Sea naval HQ with a drone, that's encouraging. Drones of any size in contested airspace will surely be vulnerable to a competent defense. (That's why the Ukrainians are dubious about the Reaper/Gray Eagle family. "This is not Afghanistan," is their way of summarizing it.)

Some details on that caper would be refreshing.
The Russians/Occupation Authorities think the attack came from within Sevastopol. At least that what they told Ria Novosti.
Link:https://t.me/rian_ru/172777

Quote:
The governor of Sevastopol clarified that during the attack of the Ukrainian
A drone attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet was carried out from Sevastopol, search operations are underway to find the perpetrators, Crimean senator Kovitidi told RIA Novosti
(Translated with Google Lens)
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Old 31st July 2022, 12:30 PM   #2724
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Tornado has longer range, but HIMARS - an evolution of MLRS - probably has better integration and cognitive load. On the other hand, integration with NATO's way of warfare is probably not so valuable to Ukraine.
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Old 31st July 2022, 12:37 PM   #2725
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Originally Posted by sackett View Post
If the Ukrainians really did hit the Black Sea naval HQ with a drone, that's encouraging. Drones of any size in contested airspace will surely be vulnerable to a competent defense. (That's why the Ukrainians are dubious about the Reaper/Gray Eagle family. "This is not Afghanistan," is their way of summarizing it.)

Some details on that caper would be refreshing.
Originally Posted by Lord Emsworth View Post
The Russians/Occupation Authorities think the attack came from within Sevastopol. At least that what they told Ria Novosti.
Link:https://t.me/rian_ru/172777



(Translated with Google Lens)
Coming from Sevastopol would also be encouraging. It means that Russia needs more security even where it has had control since 2014
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Old 31st July 2022, 01:59 PM   #2726
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Have you tried to find out?
Yes
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Old 31st July 2022, 03:51 PM   #2727
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Coming from Sevastopol would also be encouraging. It means that Russia needs more security even where it has had control since 2014
The Russians have said (sorry, no link; I'm speaking to you from my lovely home here in the Pleistocene) that it was a homemade drone and "low powered," meaning the warhead I suppose.

Odd that such a thing would cancel their Navy Day.
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Old 31st July 2022, 04:00 PM   #2728
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Originally Posted by sackett View Post
The Russians have said (sorry, no link; I'm speaking to you from my lovely home here in the Pleistocene) that it was a homemade drone and "low powered," meaning the warhead I suppose.

Odd that such a thing would cancel their Navy Day.
They don't have much of a navy left in the Black Sea to celebrate.
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Old 31st July 2022, 04:30 PM   #2729
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
They have a strategy. Seize the South to connect Crimea so there is a direct land connection.
That's an objective not a strategy.
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Old 31st July 2022, 04:35 PM   #2730
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Surrendering to the Russians doesn't sound like a good idea. I wonder if they understand the consequences for them. Do they really want to be at war with men who are fighting for their lives?

Will they want to try surrendering to such men?
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Old 31st July 2022, 07:10 PM   #2731
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
That's an objective not a strategy.
That's why it's a strategy. To strengthen their presence in Crimea.
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Old 31st July 2022, 07:11 PM   #2732
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Another Russian dissident apparently poisoned outside Russia.
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Old 31st July 2022, 08:37 PM   #2733
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
They don't have much of a navy left in the Black Sea to celebrate.
No, it's still all in the Black Sea.

Just... not all on the surface.
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Old 31st July 2022, 10:55 PM   #2734
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Not that the Russian speakers argument deserves to be treated with anything less than scorn, but... for the nearly inevitable next fringe reset, those interested might be willing to poke at something like this.

Quote:
On December 1st 1991 Ukraine held an independence referendum:

Registered voters: 37,885,555
Turnout: 31,891,742 (84,2%)

✅FOR 28,804,071 (92,3%)
⛔️AGAINST 2,417,554 (7,7%)

As you can see from the below map, even the regions with RU speaking population voted FOR.
Generally by a very sizable margin. Crimea was lowest with only a simple majority. Everywhere else was above 80% in favor of freedom from Russia. I wonder if sentiment is even higher, now.
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Old 1st August 2022, 12:53 AM   #2735
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Now the Russians have assassinated a businessman developing the Ukraine wheat business with a missile aimed at his home.
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Old 1st August 2022, 02:25 AM   #2736
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The first ship carrying grain has left Odessa

Turkish and Ukrainian officials say the ship left the port early today bound for Lebanon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62375580
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Old 1st August 2022, 02:29 AM   #2737
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Even money the Russians force it into Tarsus.
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Old 1st August 2022, 02:35 AM   #2738
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Even money the Russians force it into Tarsus.
How would they do that?

Tarsus is in Turkey and not even a port.

The ship is 30 miles out of port and currently making 10.7 knots heading south east accompanied by a Tug

Last edited by Andy_Ross; 1st August 2022 at 02:41 AM.
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Old 1st August 2022, 03:10 AM   #2739
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
How would they do that?

Tarsus is in Turkey and not even a port.

The ship is 30 miles out of port and currently making 10.7 knots heading south east accompanied by a Tug
Fingers crossed for them. If it were me, I'd like to read the fine print of what the Russians agreed to before going anywhere near.

So far it appears the Russians don't believe they promised not to bombard the ports or assassinate civilians who run the exporting business.
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Old 1st August 2022, 03:44 AM   #2740
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Turned south west now, still accompanied by a Tug.

It's not a little ship, 38,000 tons
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Old 1st August 2022, 07:43 AM   #2741
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https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/s...YsqQtb3pnDp9Vg

I'll let you see the embedded video that Russia is using to claim the destruction of two HIMARS systems.

I doubt they were hidden on a first/second (UK / US) floor of an apartment

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Old 1st August 2022, 08:30 AM   #2742
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/s...YsqQtb3pnDp9Vg

I'll let you see the embedded video that Russia is using to claim the destruction of two HIMARS systems.

I doubt they were hidden on a first/second (UK / US) floor of an apartment

In addition to that, there are lies about a Brimstone missile:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJVfddkn5M4&t=1s
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Old 1st August 2022, 09:04 AM   #2743
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I think ships will get through ok for a week or two then one will be hit by a missile and Russia will blame Ukraine
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Old 1st August 2022, 09:28 AM   #2744
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Russia's trying really hard to be at war with Ukraine without being at war with the world. But it's tricky, since the rest of the world isn't at war with Ukraine, and would like to keep trading with them.

It's also tricky that much of the western world is de facto at war with Russia over Ukraine. I wonder what would happen if NATO* committed to using its air power to vouchsafe Ukrainian grain shipments via the Black Sea.
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Old 1st August 2022, 09:34 AM   #2745
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Russia's trying really hard to be at war with Ukraine without being at war with the world. But it's tricky, since the rest of the world isn't at war with Ukraine, and would like to keep trading with them.

It's also tricky that much of the western world is de facto at war with Russia over Ukraine. I wonder what would happen if NATO* committed to using its air power to vouchsafe Ukrainian grain shipments via the Black Sea.
And there is this

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/01/e...ntl/index.html

"neurological issues" and another Bulgarian arms depot has been sabotaged.

Could be a coincidence but it could also be Russia stepping up its undeclared war on the West. Both are within what it's done before (in fact by GRU Unit 29155)
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Old 1st August 2022, 10:23 AM   #2746
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No position update from Razoni or the tug sailing with it for over 3 hours.

Looks like they turned their AIS off or there are surprisingly few AIS stations in that part of the Black Sea
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Old 1st August 2022, 11:39 AM   #2747
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/s...YsqQtb3pnDp9Vg

I'll let you see the embedded video that Russia is using to claim the destruction of two HIMARS systems.

I doubt they were hidden on a first/second (UK / US) floor of an apartment

Does anybody here speak Russian? This whole thing is just to retarded, even for Russia. That clip was part of a larger newscast and unless guy in uniform is actually saying this is footage of apartment dwelling HIMARS going boom I'm going to reserve judgement in favor of something simpler like intern using wrong clip or the clip being unrelated to HIMARS destruction claims.

In the same broadcast there's also mention of butterfly mines being recently dispersed by Ukraine. I'm willing to write this off as Russian propaganda but I'd still like to see an denial from Ukraine that they have or are using these mines. We encountered these mines at the beginning of the conflict and Russia was (supposedly) scattering them in playgrounds so we know they're evil.
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Old 1st August 2022, 11:43 AM   #2748
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Originally Posted by Lord Emsworth View Post
In addition to that, there are lies about a Brimstone missile:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJVfddkn5M4&t=1s
Dude needs to post links to back up his story. I had time on my hands so I did my own research and he's correct, we have seen this missile before.
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Old 1st August 2022, 11:45 AM   #2749
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Originally Posted by Stout View Post
Does anybody here speak Russian? This whole thing is just to retarded, even for Russia. That clip was part of a larger newscast and unless guy in uniform is actually saying this is footage of apartment dwelling HIMARS going boom I'm going to reserve judgement in favor of something simpler like intern using wrong clip or the clip being unrelated to HIMARS destruction claims. ...
Thanks, I was thinking the same. This smacked of jimbob believing a poster on social media with 100% credulity, zero skepticism.
It's a favorite tactic of Russian propaganda, towards their home market, to make up, falsify or pull wildly out of context Western or Ukrainian clips and news and debunk them. I have a feeling it's the exact same kind of propaganda here, except the other way round (made up by some UA-side agency for Western consumption).
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Old 1st August 2022, 12:01 PM   #2750
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Thanks, I was thinking the same. This smacked of jimbob believing a poster on social media with 100% credulity, zero skepticism.
It's a favorite tactic of Russian propaganda, towards their home market, to make up, falsify or pull wildly out of context Western or Ukrainian clips and news and debunk them. I have a feeling it's the exact same kind of propaganda here, except the other way round (made up by some UA-side agency for Western consumption).
Well google translate describes it as that.

As does this

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2022-08-01/4...mpleks_harpoon
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Old 1st August 2022, 12:06 PM   #2751
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The latest US arms package for Ukraine has been announced.

From the Pentagon, via CNN:
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $550 million to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s seventeenth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.
Capabilities in this package include equipment the Ukrainians are using effectively to defend their country such as:
75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).
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Old 1st August 2022, 01:08 PM   #2752
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
How would they do that?

Tarsus is in Turkey and not even a port.

The ship is 30 miles out of port and currently making 10.7 knots heading south east accompanied by a Tug
Sorry, Tartus.
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Old 1st August 2022, 01:32 PM   #2753
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Originally Posted by Stout View Post
Does anybody here speak Russian?
A couple of Twitter accounts I follow credit https://twitter.com/wartranslated for translation in case it helps.
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Old 1st August 2022, 01:54 PM   #2754
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Well google translate describes it as that.

As does this

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2022-08-01/4...mpleks_harpoon
I don't know how to google-translate the words spoken in the video.
The video obviously shows footage from several locations, of several different kinds of attacks - the strike on a concrete building, shelling of a field, and something with a tank from overhead, in addition to showing some debris of something somewhere.
How do you know the claim made in the video is that the strike on the building specifically shows an attack on HIMARS?
Yes, the written article talks of a couple of HIMARS destroyed - but it would not be unusual in an online news article that it has embedded a video with content only somewhat related, not showing exactly and only what the article talks about. In fact, I find it highly usual that online journalists cobble together videos and text that are only borderline related to one another.
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Old 1st August 2022, 02:09 PM   #2755
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
I don't know how to google-translate the words spoken in the video.
The video obviously shows footage from several locations, of several different kinds of attacks - the strike on a concrete building, shelling of a field, and something with a tank from overhead, in addition to showing some debris of something somewhere.
How do you know the claim made in the video is that the strike on the building specifically shows an attack on HIMARS?
Yes, the written article talks of a couple of HIMARS destroyed - but it would not be unusual in an online news article that it has embedded a video with content only somewhat related, not showing exactly and only what the article talks about. In fact, I find it highly usual that online journalists cobble together videos and text that are only borderline related to one another.
The Google translate app in my phone transcribed it when I watched it on my laptop.
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Old 1st August 2022, 02:40 PM   #2756
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Interesting thread on long term impact to Russian army
https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1554168802350342148

Quote:
Heavy losses to what professional NCOs RS had, junior + field-grade officers means that the group of people who signed up in the last 10-15 years, when the military tried to reform and who knew something even a little different than 90s or Soviet military life, are gone
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Old 1st August 2022, 02:47 PM   #2757
Andy_Ross
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Three British men accused of being mercenaries are to stand trial in a Russian proxy court in eastern Ukraine.

John Harding, Dylan Healy, and Andrew Hill will be tried in the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, a breakaway region of Ukraine, Russian media said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62384631
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Old 1st August 2022, 10:22 PM   #2758
Aridas
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To poke at a more general update regarding the Kherson counteroffensive -

Quote:
Ukraine has taken back 46 villages in Kherson Oblast since start of counter-offensive.

Acting Governor of Kherson Oblast Dmytro Butrii reported the number, adding that some villages are "90% destroyed, and are still under shelling," as quoted by Interfax-Ukraine.
Not as fast as pretty much any of us would prefer, I'm sure, but they are pushing forwards. A fair bit faster than Russia's pushing forward on the eastern front, for that matter, by the look of it.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 12:18 AM   #2759
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Russia has reportedly doubled their forces around Kherson to around 25k to repel the counteroffensive (which would apparently never happen).

They continue to slowly advance towards Bakmut.

For a spent force, they seem to be able to call up significant reserves on one front and maintain their glacial pace of advance on another.
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Old 2nd August 2022, 02:15 AM   #2760
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Seems like whackamole to me. Russia diverts their eastern forces to Kherson, and Ukraine will start clobbering Donetsk or push from Kharkiv. At least Russia has realized what's strategically important, but it might be too late if they can't maintain access to the city of Kherson.
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