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2nd August 2022, 02:32 AM | #2761 |
Penultimate Amazing
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2nd August 2022, 04:39 AM | #2762 |
Je ne suis pas une de vos élèves
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2nd August 2022, 06:07 AM | #2763 |
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2nd August 2022, 06:53 AM | #2764 |
Penultimate Amazing
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True, in which case the result of that sporting contest would be a victory for your opponent.
The message in the mainstream Western press, and promoted by Western intelligence, is that the Russian Army is a spent force and that as a result, Ukraine will soon start to reverse the Russian Army's gains and may eventually restore Ukraine to its pre February 2022 borders and perhaps even its pre 2014 borders. My concern is that Western commentators are basing their assessment on inaccurate information (Russia's reserves of men and materiel run far, far deeper than Western intelligence suspects) and/or that Russian units are far more resilient to losses than suspected and so are still an effective fighting force despite losses that Western analysis would think would make the unit ineffective. My desired outcome is that Ukraine goes on to win this war and that Russia is crippled militarily and economically so that they cannot embark on future adventures of this kind. My fear is that the West will grow impatient about the cost of the war, will declare victory early, withdraw their support and leave a Russia who could simply have another go in a few months or years time. |
2nd August 2022, 07:46 AM | #2765 |
Illuminator
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2nd August 2022, 07:48 AM | #2766 |
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My fear is, that with a natural gas shortage in Europe, the people may become disgruntled at their governments and vote them out replacing them with a party that promises to end their support of Ukraine and "play ball" with Russia.
Right now there seems to be almost unprecedented solidarity and support for Ukraine, but will there be after a winter of heating shortages? ETA: then looking another year ahead, what happens if "The Donald" is POTUS again? |
2nd August 2022, 08:01 AM | #2767 |
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2nd August 2022, 08:04 AM | #2768 |
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2nd August 2022, 08:25 AM | #2769 |
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I don't think it is a BS question. If your view is that it should be done for the sake of human need, then that is your value judgement. But your post also isn't clear of the future Russian activity is a value concern or if you are making a national self interest argument. Either are fine, I just don't want to say you support one when you support either (or both or neither).
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2nd August 2022, 09:02 AM | #2770 |
Crazy Little Green Dragon
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Russia's likely losing ground around Izyum now, for example, and there were reports of more general hollowing out of their holding forces in the south.
IIRC, this counteroffensive has been going on for a while now, anyways. At least since Ukraine crossed the river and hit around Davydiv Brid, with a decent chance that it's been longer given the relative information blocking going on. They've been making increasing progress on the northern side of that battlefield in recent days, either way, and have likely effectively cut off a couple groups of Russian invaders and progressed further south from there. |
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2nd August 2022, 09:43 AM | #2771 |
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Really? I'm not getting that message at all.
The message I'm getting is that Russia has less military resources to spend than previously estimated; that they're spending those resources at a high rate for marginal gains; that this rate of spending cannot be sustained much longer; and that this combined with Ukraine's (equally surprising) resilience means there is a growing chance that Ukraine can not only resist the Russian advance, but even turn the tide of battle and drive the Russians back.
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Now that we see them in action, we're realizing they're barely up to the challenge of holding their own against Ukraine. Their air defenses are okay. Their long-range artillery is okay. Their logistics are ass. Their training and maintenance are ass. Their morale is probably somewhere between okay and ass. It's clear that Russia is still able to field some functional formations. But the level of functionality, and the total number of units being fielded, is far less than what we expected. If Putin had a mass of well-equipped, well-trained, highly competent troops, it was probably the ones he committed to Kiev, which were thrown back and apparently destroyed. It's amazing that in a world where it's clear that Russian military officials have successfully over-represented their actual numbers and readiness, you still insist on believing those things have been under-represented.
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The only thing we don't know for sure is exactly how long Russia can sustain this level of spend, for these marginal gains. We're pretty sure it won't be long enough to exhaust western support for Ukraine. And at the moment it doesn't seem like it will soon exhaust the Ukrainian willingness to keep fighting. Ukraine's biggest problem right now is limited manpower. If they do counterattack, they probably won't have the troops to try it more than a few times. So it makes sense that they would chip away at the Russians in the meantime, waiting until they've built up enough of an advantage, and deteriorated the enemy forces sufficiently, to initiate a decisive battle in their favor.
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The army that broke out in the east and also advanced on Kiev doesn't exist anymore. The army that's still fighting in the east is a lot weaker than we expected back in February. For someone who supposedly wants the west to stay committed, you sure seem quick to discard "this is working, let's keep doing it" in favor of "this isn't working, let's rethink". I think what we're doing is working. I think the Russian military is much weaker than we believed a year ago. I think it's probably hollowing itself out pretty quick, to keep up a strong front in the East. How strong that front actually is, and how fragile it will prove to be, if and when Ukraine counterattacks, remains to be seen. It's already clear it's not strong enough to make any kind of major push, or drive the Ukrainians substantially back. I think the Secret Formations you fear, that will show up Real Soon Now to enable a Russian push, don't exist. Quite the opposite: I think the troops being sent to shore up the eastern front are going to be progressively weaker and weaker. I think Ukraine's biggest concern right now is not whether they could crush the Russians around Kherson, but whether they can do it with enough reserves to avoid a pyrrhic victory and leave themselves open to any half-assed invasion that might seek to take advantage. And I think that every week that passes, with the Russians trying to keep up appearances, and the Ukrainians getting stronger and stronger, tips the balance further in Ukraines favor. |
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2nd August 2022, 10:08 AM | #2772 |
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If God/doG/FSM forbid Trump is reelected, he will not reassume office until two years from next January. I have maintained, and continue to maintain, that whatever plans he may have to cut Ukraine off will be moot because if the war is still going on, Russia will have suffered both military and economic collapses by then. |
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2nd August 2022, 10:52 AM | #2773 |
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
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2nd August 2022, 02:13 PM | #2774 |
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So, as I predicted, Russia hasn't pulled out of the International Space Station.
It's not that I don't think they could, and not that I believe them when they say anything. Rather, they've made bombastic statements about their space program before. It's a case of, "I'll believe it when I see it." |
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2nd August 2022, 02:59 PM | #2775 |
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Another thread by ChrisO on Russian infantry based on their words. This is on the growing divide between soldiers and officers.
Promises of rotation back to Russia never happens, support helicopters mainly can't fly, those that do fail to hit targets but report they do so unsupported infantry sent in etc. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...68649268232192 |
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2nd August 2022, 04:01 PM | #2776 |
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Apparently there are other broken promises:
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2nd August 2022, 04:23 PM | #2777 |
Penultimate Amazing
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A forty-soldier "battalion". Usually it's about a thousand-soldier formation. And Russia can't even afford to pay them. But maybe the Russian Army is still going strong, with unsuspected reserves of manpower still to draw on...
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2nd August 2022, 05:34 PM | #2778 |
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Been reading various twitter threads about Russian soldiers. If the claims of pressuring conscripts with contracts is true then that can help explain the strange manpower numbers.
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2nd August 2022, 07:01 PM | #2779 |
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2nd August 2022, 10:17 PM | #2780 |
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2nd August 2022, 11:03 PM | #2781 |
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2nd August 2022, 11:22 PM | #2782 |
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3rd August 2022, 12:35 AM | #2783 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I'm sure that there are *reasons* why this is not a counterattack
These might include:
I'm sure there are many others we'll get to enjoy in three weeks or so. |
3rd August 2022, 12:57 AM | #2784 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Thank you for the comprehensive response. I'll try to keep this to a manageable length.
The thing is that we've been told for a considerable time now that they're expending forces at a and that it cannot be sustained - and yet here we are, nearly six months in and it seems that it can be sustained. What if that never happens, or more accurately what happens if this takes years. Russia is amply financed thanks to their commodities sales and there seems to be no shortage of equipment. The type of war they've settled on doesn't require anything leading edge, their vast reserves of Soviet-era hardware is adequate for the job And yet here they are, still grinding away making marginal gains in the east and reinforcing the Kherson front. Their forces may be ass, but they've settled on tactics which they're able to execute AND they're succeeding in one of their objectives, to severely weaken Ukraine economically. IMO Russia can keep plodding on with such high rates of losses because their tactics are so unsophisticated. Western units rely on specialists, intelligence and mobility. A few losses in key areas can significantly degrade their capability. OTOH if your approach is to simply pound your opponent with low-accuracy artillery and then make tiny advances once the city/town/village has been reduced to rubble then you can do this with a comparatively small number of relatively unskilled troops. Russia is still getting billions of dollars a week from commodity sales and as they move away from selling to the West to selling to Asia, they secure that income. You're absolutely right that they're not the "near peer" force we believed them to be a year ago but they've also demonstrated that they can still damage a country if they choose to do so. Even if Ukraine is able to recover the land taken by Russia, the costs of rebuilding will cripple the Ukrainian economy, meanwhile Russia can start, with Chinese, Iranian and Indian support, to rebuild. I really, really hope you're right. When I saw the Russian withdrawal from around Kyiv I thought that Russia was significantly, perhaps fatally, weakened and that it would be months until they could re-field those units. Instead they managed to get them back into the meat grinder in a couple of weeks. |
3rd August 2022, 02:05 AM | #2785 |
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The problem with all of this is that you are theorising after the fact. For example, there was much speculation in the West before this whole thing began about what Putin's objectives were.
I really doubt that "weakening Ukraine economically" was in his list. It probably contained things like "install puppet government" or "annex Ukraine" or (more credibly) "establish land bridge to Crimea". When he invaded and went straight for Kyiv, it seemed like "install puppet government" was top of the list. They have failed in their initial objectives and now they are scrabbling for new ones to make it seem like they won. As for their selling billions of dollars of commodities. Well they were doing that before the sanctions and even then their economy was only about the size of that of Texas. It's definitely smaller than that now. They may have the help of China to rebuild (or they may not) but Ukraine will have the help of the EU, the UK and the USA. Also, Ukraine will not be subject to crippling sanctions. Of Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine will recover faster.
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3rd August 2022, 02:12 AM | #2786 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Will the EU, UK and USA be willing to plough in $100bn-$200bn a year for the next 5, 10, 15 years while Ukraine rebuilds at the same time that UK and EU economies are suffering because of Russia's withdrawal of oil and gas supplies ?
Will US politicians be happy to provide this much money when people are clamouring for tax cuts and for money to be spent on Americans ? Maybe it is, but those units are still slowly taking ground in the East. |
3rd August 2022, 06:20 AM | #2787 |
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There is no need to rebuild. The French helping out the colonists wasn't about advancing freedom, but advancing national interest. Almost all foreign aid is serving national interest, and it is on a nation itself to ultimately secure it's defense, sometimes independently.
At some point, aiding Ukraine will no longer serve Western interest, and they may lose, and that's fine. |
3rd August 2022, 06:39 AM | #2788 |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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3rd August 2022, 07:38 AM | #2789 |
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Current best estimate to rebuild Ukraine is US$500 billion to one trillion. About US$300 billion will come from frozen Russian assets. More will come from the EU and the non-EU G7. Additional money could be raised by requiring Russia to pay a portion of its energy revenue into a Ukraine reconstruction fund in return for being allowed to resume selling oil and gas to the West, as Iraq was required to do for Kuwait. As for "slowly taking ground in the East," as we have discussed, continuing to slowly advance does not indicate that the advance is sustainable, and the Russians clearly can't sustain what they're doing in the long run. |
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3rd August 2022, 07:44 AM | #2790 |
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Further to what jlhas been said. There's a huge inertia in a war involving hundreds of thousands of combatants on both sides. Especially with the Ukrainian strategy of "corrosion" which is not very flashy or quick, not wiping out or capturing scores of BTGs, but degrading their ability to fight effectively through lots of different approaches.
It is a gradual degredation though. |
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3rd August 2022, 07:52 AM | #2791 |
Penultimate Amazing
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3rd August 2022, 08:22 AM | #2792 |
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3rd August 2022, 09:53 AM | #2793 |
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3rd August 2022, 10:22 AM | #2794 |
BOFH
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"Your deepest pools, like your deepest politicians and philosophers, often turn out more shallow than expected." Walter Scott. |
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3rd August 2022, 11:39 AM | #2795 |
Crazy Little Green Dragon
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Speaking of trains...
Ukraine update: Russia loses two supply trains in a day ... but only one to Ukrainian attack Southern axis, specifically. |
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3rd August 2022, 11:47 AM | #2796 |
Penultimate Amazing
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3rd August 2022, 12:14 PM | #2797 |
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If it was indeed due to being overzealous in lighting a smokescreen to hide the ammunition train from visible reconnaissance and that set off the ammunition, then yes that is pretty careless. Or a way to minimise time being vulnerable to attack and rock bottom morale.
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3rd August 2022, 12:16 PM | #2798 |
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And more echoes of history, 79 years ago.
The railways are single track. It's a good job the Russians seem to have learned nothing from the Great Patriotic War, despite it seeming to be larger in nationalist culture than the Battle of Britain is in UK nationalist culture. |
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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3rd August 2022, 01:00 PM | #2799 |
Orthogonal Vector
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There is always the poor handling by conscripts of munitions, compounded in this case by the poor storage conditions of them(I have seen pictures supposedly of russian artillery shells in crates sitting outside with some of the crates damaged from the enviroment). The Port Chicago disaster in WWII killed 300 from poor handling conditions
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3rd August 2022, 02:47 PM | #2800 |
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Talking of trains carrying ammo blowing up
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...ult_of_himars/ That's a big one |
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