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20th May 2022, 01:21 PM | #1 |
Illuminator
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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4
The line I heard is that this is deliberate, and that Ukraine is trading ground for time.
This. So long as Russia is in Ukraine, they can always counter attack. One small piece of land goes one way, then the other. Rather than occupying a particular piece of ground, Ukraine needs to degrade Russia's ability to wage war (not because I want them to, but because they'll literally never be free if they don't). |
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20th May 2022, 01:58 PM | #2 |
Illuminator
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20th May 2022, 02:16 PM | #3 |
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20th May 2022, 02:22 PM | #4 |
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This is a big bulge into Ukrainian lines, putting the main supply route into Severtdoneskt under Russian artillery fire. This isn't Ukraine pulling out of a salient, this is Russia pushing a big one deep into Ukrainian territory.
Its true that Ukraine didn't contest those towns. It contested Popasna very hard though. There's a word used when enemy forces get past a strongly contested line and into an area where they face little resistance - breakout. It seems possible that Russia has broken through the line of Ukrainian defense and is now pushing forces through that gap. Here's one person suggesting concern:
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20th May 2022, 02:34 PM | #5 |
Penultimate Amazing
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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4
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Ashley Babbit was a good start. |
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20th May 2022, 02:46 PM | #6 |
Penultimate Amazing
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So the bulge is in the Russian lines and they advance in to uncontested terrain?
The 'declined centre' used effectively by Rommel against the 8th Army advance in 'Operation Crusader' They are the ones with the over extended line ripe for encircling. What I mean is every situation can be read two ways. |
20th May 2022, 04:21 PM | #7 |
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20th May 2022, 04:51 PM | #8 |
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Even if the Russians do succeed in their current offensive, what next? They still won't be anywhere close to forcing Ukraine to surrender, but the Russian economy and the Russian Army will be that much closer to complete collapse.
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20th May 2022, 05:40 PM | #9 |
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It's not rational in any way. It's just to destroy as much of Ukraine as possible. And lives of peasants and rusty soviet vehicles are small price. The isolation is another thing, but that won't change any time soon, so why not destroy few more villages, till the peasants are completely depleted.
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20th May 2022, 06:15 PM | #10 |
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Russia has declared victory in its months-long battle to conquer the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.
The last fighters defending the city's Azovstal steel plant have now surrendered, Moscow officials said. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61529877 |
20th May 2022, 08:50 PM | #11 |
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Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.
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20th May 2022, 11:04 PM | #12 |
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20th May 2022, 11:47 PM | #13 |
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Current status per ISW:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...835009/photo/1 |
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20th May 2022, 11:50 PM | #14 |
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The two are quite similar, though, and, for what it's worth, I had recently mentioned Kherson in the thread, I think. Incidentally, I find myself having to recheck myself with Melitopol and Mariupol most of the time when I want to name Melitopol. I've been trying to just avoid using the names of some of the actually repeated settlement names, too, because that can get really confusing, really quick.
Indeed. We'll see how this plays out, either way. |
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So sayeth the crazy little dragon. |
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21st May 2022, 02:36 AM | #15 |
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21st May 2022, 04:16 AM | #16 |
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Moldova should be "equipped to Nato standard" to help it guard against the threat of a Russian invasion, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said.
She said it was clear that, despite limited success in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin retained "ambitions to create a greater Russia https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61532625 |
21st May 2022, 06:27 AM | #17 |
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There is no Antimemetics Division. |
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21st May 2022, 10:33 AM | #18 |
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45 es un titere |
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21st May 2022, 10:40 AM | #19 |
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21st May 2022, 12:20 PM | #20 |
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21st May 2022, 12:23 PM | #21 |
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A general word of caution:
What we hear may not be what's really important and decisive. What we hear is definitely biased - one way or another. What we hear may be untrue, or only partially true, or be presented without significant caveats and qualifiers. For example: We have NOT been hearing much about logistics problems lately, or have we? That was a huge issue in the early weeks - when Russia was struggling. No, Russia is concentrating the fighting close to territory it controls tightly, and thus they enjoy short and relatively safe supplies and and supply routes. On the other hand, Ukraine increasingly suffers disruption of logistics lines (Russia fires missiles at railroads, bridges all over the country), and also has very long supply lines - are we certain that Ukraine can move all that heavy gear, keep it fueled and stocked with the requisite kinds and numbers of ammo? I am convinced Ukraine and her US/NATO intelligence supporters keep very quiet about the really important details of what is and isn't supplied and deployed. [/standard disclaimer] |
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21st May 2022, 02:10 PM | #22 | ||||||
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Visit the former Azov HQ in Yurevka near Mariupol:
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21st May 2022, 03:05 PM | #23 |
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It isn't about forcing Ukraine to surrender, it is about de-militarization and de-nazification of Ukraine. Those are the stated goals. At least the latter seems to be pretty much close to success if you watch the videos I just posted above. Evil Incarnated even stated several times that he doesn't care if Kolomoiski's Comedian stays in place or not. |
21st May 2022, 03:19 PM | #24 |
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21st May 2022, 04:50 PM | #25 |
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In 2014, Ukraine's military didn't put up any significant resistance. In 2022, Ukraine's military has fought the vaunted Russian military to a standstill. In fact, due to the Russian 'special operation,' Ukraine's military has received large quantities of advanced weapons that they probably never would have gotten otherwise.
I don't think the 'de-militarization' part is going very well for Russia. |
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21st May 2022, 05:43 PM | #26 |
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21st May 2022, 07:54 PM | #27 |
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Tip: If your army has a new piece of big artillery, don't do a news report showing its position. It might get blown up.
https://twitter.com/ukikaski/status/1528100518547054595 MORONS! |
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21st May 2022, 09:47 PM | #28 |
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To poke at the apparent current state of the Popasna salient -
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So sayeth the crazy little dragon. |
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22nd May 2022, 01:01 AM | #29 |
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22nd May 2022, 01:13 AM | #30 |
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22nd May 2022, 01:45 AM | #31 |
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We do these things not because they are easy, but because we thought they were going to be easy. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos |
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22nd May 2022, 02:24 AM | #32 |
Penultimate Amazing
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The Ukrainian government says it won't agree a ceasefire deal with Russia that involves giving up territory.
Kyiv would not follow calls in the West for an urgent ceasefire that involved Russian forces remaining in territory they occupy. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share |
22nd May 2022, 02:44 AM | #33 |
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22nd May 2022, 04:06 AM | #34 |
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But the Special Military Witchhunt is only a hunt for Ukrainian witches. Stop looking at those Russian ones. And the demilitarisation aspect is proceeding to plan except for the single detail that the intended side is massively rearming while the other side is disarming itself piece by piece. On balance there are fewer weapons in the world; Russia's gift to the world.
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22nd May 2022, 05:31 AM | #35 |
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22nd May 2022, 05:53 AM | #36 |
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22nd May 2022, 06:55 AM | #37 |
Penultimate Amazing
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It doesn't look like the same location.
Chances are it is the same as there are only very few of them. |
22nd May 2022, 07:13 AM | #38 |
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Agreed. It's plausibly the same general location but I can't identify any features that match the buildings or indeed identify the vehicle. May well be a true story but the video is not proof so far as I can see. In the last few seconds as the view widens we can see it's a larger group of buildings, with fires in other places too, so it's a larger attack than a single strike on a specific vehicle target.
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22nd May 2022, 07:38 AM | #39 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Russia has only 10 of them operational (well, now they have 9)
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22nd May 2022, 07:51 AM | #40 |
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Ashley Babbit was a good start. |
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