[Continuation] Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero - Page 62

P.J. Denyer · 16th January 2020, 09:38 AM

Originally Posted by Darat

At least it will be a quick and simple agreement to get in place.

All we'll have to negotiate is how high we have to jump...

...or how many toes we have to touch.

Darat · 16th January 2020, 12:00 PM

The Independent: Trump threatened UK with 25% car tariffs unless it agreed to accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal
The Independent: Trump threatened UK with 25% car tariffs unless it agreed to accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a9286496.html

lomiller · 16th January 2020, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by ceptimus

Of course I I don't expect a trade deal between the UK and the EU to be as "good" or as comprehensive as being inside the EU - the EU is determined that cannot be the case lest they see the rapid departure of other EU member countries.

This has nothing to do with it. If the UK would agree to:
- Adopt EU product standards
- Adopt EU trade rules
- No side deals on trade
- A common customs area
A trade deal that is as good as being in the EU is certainly possible. Not agreeing to these would make the new deal a net negative for both sides and there is no way the EU is just going to absorb all the losses resulting losses.

Originally Posted by ceptimus

But you have to factor in the cost to the UK of being in the EU - when the net payments by the UK to the EU (the cost of membership) are taken into account, then the existing "free" deal is nowhere near free.

This is like the naïve 20 year old who things living at home isn’t a good deal if they have to pay rent, but has no idea how expensive it is to live the way they are accustomed.

lomiller · 16th January 2020, 01:25 PM

Originally Posted by ceptimus

and the UK, once freed from the EU, can expect to do at least as well, and probably much better.

What makes you think Trump would even honor a trade deal with the UK? Canada and Mexico are part of a comprehensive free trade deal with the US yet he unilaterally imposed tariffs on Steal and Aluminum imports in order to protect the US Steel industry.

Darat · 16th January 2020, 01:30 PM

Originally Posted by lomiller

What makes you think Trump would even honor a trade deal with the UK? Canada and Mexico are part of a comprehensive free trade deal with the US yet he unilaterally imposed tariffs on Steal and Aluminum imports in order to protect the US Steel industry.

You only have to look above to my previous post to see how Trump is going to deal with the UK. Trump is acting exactly as people warned.

lomiller · 16th January 2020, 01:34 PM

Originally Posted by Darat

You only have to look above to my previous post to see how Trump is going to deal with the UK. Trump is acting exactly as people warned.

There are 2 issues.
1) What Trump would demand as part of a deal
2) Whether Trump would even honor the US side of the deal even if UK made the compromises he demanded.

a_unique_person · 16th January 2020, 06:11 PM

Come on people. Trump will be gone at the end of the year.

The Don · 17th January 2020, 01:09 AM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Come on people. Trump will be gone at the end of the year.

I'm not so sure, I reckon that he's got a better than even chance of being reelected unless one or more of the following happens:

There is a significant economic downturn before the election - though at this stage that cannot happen
The Democrats find an exciting and charismatic candidate - have you seen the candidates ?
Trump's base abandons him en-masse - ain't gonna to happen ever
The GOP grows a spine - ain't gonna happen any time soon

McHrozni · 17th January 2020, 01:39 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

I'm not so sure, I reckon that he's got a better than even chance of being reelected unless one or more of the following happens:

There is a significant economic downturn before the election - though at this stage that cannot happen

Marginally possible, it doesn't even need to be that significant a downturn.

Quote:

The Democrats find an exciting and charismatic candidate - have you seen the candidates ?

Largely impossible, true.

Quote:

The GOP grows a spine - ain't gonna happen any time soon

Won't happen in this late stage, true.

Quote:

Trump's base abandons him en-masse - ain't gonna to happen ever

Herein lies a weakness. Trump has a massively loyal base, but that base is only about 20-25% of the electorate. All the other support he might get at the polls are people voting Republican out of habbit or against the Democrat candidate or some other reason like that. Trumpian base is fanatical and literarily won't abandon Trump is he took a gun and shot up a school. "Dems made him do it, he has my vote against those baby killers" is what they'd say.

That said, the obnoxious nature of his fanatics alienated many other potential supporters. To defeat Trump you don't need his base to abandon him, you primarily need to get people who usually vote Republican to sit the election out or vote for someone else. Most won't vote Democrat but they might vote third party or else leave at least the presidential part of the ballot blank. You don't need all of them either, 10% of such people are plenty and enough for a narrow Electoral College victory. Then of course there are the independents who might favor the challenger and of course the people who usually vote Democrat but sometimes sit the elections out to come out and vote.

Trump's base helps the Democrats in all of those. The deplorable vote is too small to win elections by themselves and they chase away good candidates and the sane electorate, at least some of the time. His base is also his weakness.

Trump has a chance to get reelected because he's an incumbent in good economy and those tend to hold their seats - but no party that faced impeachment of a sitting president managed to hold on to the White House in the next election.

I wouldn't be so quick to grant him another term. If he lives that long, that is. Have you seen him walk lately?

McHrozni

The Don · 17th January 2020, 02:20 AM

Originally Posted by McHrozni

That said, the obnoxious nature of his fanatics alienated many other potential supporters. To defeat Trump you don't need his base to abandon him, you primarily need to get people who usually vote Republican to sit the election out or vote for someone else. Most won't vote Democrat but they might vote third party or else leave at least the presidential part of the ballot blank. You don't need all of them either, 10% of such people are plenty and enough for a narrow Electoral College victory. Then of course there are the independents who might favor the challenger and of course the people who usually vote Democrat but sometimes sit the elections out to come out and vote.

You're right, if Trump's base causes other GOP voters to vote Democrat or simply not turn up then that would significantly damage President Trump's chances of reelection.

The thing is that there's been precious little evidence of this. His approval rating seems to be where it was 3 years ago; there was a "blue ripple" in the House elections but no sign of electoral tectonic plates shifting (the GOP increased its grip on the Senate); GOP senators and House representatives - who are likely very sensitive to any changes in the electoral winds - are still steadfastly behind him.

Of course all of this is off topic for a Brexit thread

The Don · 17th January 2020, 02:50 AM

Once again the EU is demonstrating how unsporting and utterly foreign they are by preparing for the trade negotiations in advance and publishing their workings:

Quote:

The EU negotiating team is gearing up for talks with the UK about the post-Brexit relationship by holding a series of seminars for diplomats from the 27 member states.

The presentations are being published online. Stuffed with jargon and seriously lacking in inspirational clipart, they provide important clues about how things might play out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51133846

Every year I read the same book "Scott And Amundsen: The Last Place on Earth". The author is a complete Amundsen fanboi and spends a lot of time comparing and contrasting Amundsen's meticulous preparation to Scott's "have a go" approach. I think the results speak for themselves.

Guybrush Threepwood · 17th January 2020, 02:55 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

Once again the EU is demonstrating how unsporting and utterly foreign they are by preparing for the trade negotiations in advance and publishing their workings:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51133846

Every year I read the same book "Scott And Amundsen: The Last Place on Earth". The author is a complete Amundsen fanboi and spends a lot of time comparing and contrasting Amundsen's meticulous preparation to Scott's "have a go" approach. I think the results speak for themselves.

Indeed, Scott is a national hero, and Amundsen was a sneaky Norwegian cheat.

Lothian · 17th January 2020, 03:01 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

Once again the EU is demonstrating how unsporting and utterly foreign they are by preparing for the trade negotiations in advance and publishing their workings:

Yes but there are 27 of them. It is so much easier for counties if they can share resources and expense........ Oh.

The Don · 17th January 2020, 03:13 AM

Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood

Indeed, Scott is a national hero, and Amundsen was a sneaky Norwegian cheat.

The book I mentioned is vehemently criticised for being a hatchet job on Scott and those same people praise Ranulph Fiennes' book to the rafters. Fiennes' book focuses on how brave and dogged Scott was - but that was never in doubt. He still used the wrong tools and was woefully under-prepared.

It reminds me of the recent Current Events thread about some guy who had to be rescued from the wilds of Alaska when he burned down his shelter, killed his dog and ruined most of his food supply trying to light a fire.

Some in the thread are saying that we fail to understand the survivalist mentality and that all he did was make one tiny mistake and he recovered from that brilliantly. My opinion was that he lacked critical skills, equipment and knowledge and was relying on luck far too much.

McHrozni · 17th January 2020, 03:26 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

You're right, if Trump's base causes other GOP voters to vote Democrat or simply not turn up then that would significantly damage President Trump's chances of reelection.

The thing is that there's been precious little evidence of this. His approval rating seems to be where it was 3 years ago; there was a "blue ripple" in the House elections but no sign of electoral tectonic plates shifting (the GOP increased its grip on the Senate); GOP senators and House representatives - who are likely very sensitive to any changes in the electoral winds - are still steadfastly behind him.

Given the nature of the election and the prevalence of gerrymandering the 2018 election was quite a blow to the Republicans. Yes they increased their grip in the Senate - but given the nature of the seats at play in 2018 that was a given. The Republicans also lost a number of state legislatures that will now re-district without Republicans drawing the districts. The losses will sting the party in the decade to come. Of course it's not very visible just yet, but that's actually because the 2012 election went so well for the Democrats in the Senate, not because the 2018 went so poorly.

Second of all, GOP Senators and House representatives staunchly defend Trump because his base is strong enough to dominate Republican party primaries. That will continue into 2020 of course but the point is their hands are tied. They either support Trump or else seek unemployment benefits, thus far most of them prefer the latter. The long-term effect is that people who might wish to run for office for the Republican party are now shying away, depriving the party as a whole of quality candidates. Lack of quality candidates does hurt your overall vote.

Third, Trump's base is mostly older people. The most loyal GOP voters are Silent and Boomer generations. Silent generation halved since 2016 as the share of total voters, Boomers decreased ever so slightly. About 1.5% of the electorate is changed every year and the change does not favor the GOP.

All of these and more against what? An incumbent with an economy that is doing somewhat okay? Not great, but kind of okay.

Trump has a chance to win in 2020, but his odds are poor. Bloomberg promised to spend up to $1 billion at defeating Trump - regardless of who's the Democratic candidate.

Quote:

Of course all of this is off topic for a Brexit thread

In part, but since BJ is strongly banking on Trump helping him out, not really

McHrozni

catsmate · 17th January 2020, 08:35 AM

Originally Posted by Mojo

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ays-trump-ally

Can anyone say "poodle"?

Delphic Oracle · 17th January 2020, 08:46 AM

Originally Posted by catsmate

Can anyone say "poodle"?

How long before we bail you all out of some calamity with IMF loans that serve as puppet strings when "conditionalities" and "structural adjustment policies" are imposed?

Don't worry too much, we've been doing it to other countries for decades and you don't hear anyone complaining.

>:9

catsmate · 17th January 2020, 08:50 AM

Originally Posted by ceptimus

I know exactly what it is. I was attempting to get Ian Osborne to do some research and realize that the USA and EU don't currently have a comprehensive "trade agreement".

Originally Posted by ceptimus

Like many remainers he assumed that the EU already has a wonderful trade deal with the USA which the UK could never expect to equal by itself.

Originally Posted by ceptimus

the UK, once freed from the EU, can expect to do at least as well, and probably much better.

Klimax · 17th January 2020, 09:49 AM

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

How long before we bail you all out of some calamity with IMF loans that serve as puppet strings when "conditionalities" and "structural adjustment policies" are imposed?

Don't worry too much, we've been doing it to other countries for decades and you don't hear anyone complaining.

>:9

Maybe one shouldn't be trying to bankrupt country if they don't want to be on short leash...

P.J. Denyer · 17th January 2020, 09:52 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

Once again the EU is demonstrating how unsporting and utterly foreign they are by preparing for the trade negotiations in advance and publishing their workings:

"All over the world every nation's the same
They've simply no notion of playing the game
They argue with umpires, they cheer when they've won
And they practice beforehand, which spoils the fun."

Flander & Swann predicting post Brexit negotiations with everyone by several years.

Although with Johnson in charge Brabbins and Fyffe might be a better fit.

a_unique_person · 17th January 2020, 09:20 PM

Originally Posted by Darat

The Independent: Trump threatened UK with 25% car tariffs unless it agreed to accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal
The Independent: Trump threatened UK with 25% car tariffs unless it agreed to accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a9286496.html

Would investigating Joe Biden be a cheaper alternative?

The Don · 17th January 2020, 11:41 PM

The chancellor has said that there will be no alignment with EU rules post-Brexit. That's our largest export market down the Swannee then

.

Sorry, no link, I'm on my phone.

edited to add.....

Link and quote:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51157933

Quote:

The chancellor has warned manufacturers that "there will not be alignment" with the EU after Brexit and insists firms must "adjust" to new regulations.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Sajid Javid admitted not all businesses would benefit from Brexit.

Last year, the automotive, food and drink and pharmaceutical sectors warned the government that no longer aligning with key EU rules would be damaging.

Mr Javid declined to specify which EU rules he wanted to drop.

also:

Quote:

The chancellor also said he wanted to double the UK's annual economic growth to between 2.7 and 2.8%.

However, the outgoing governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, told the Financial Times last week he thought the UK's trend growth rate was much lower, at between 1 and 1.5%.

He wants to double growth and I want a full head of hair but that isn't going to happen either. I fail to see how making it far more difficult to trade with a bloc which accounts for close to 50% of our international trade will act as a stimulus for growth.

Guybrush Threepwood · 18th January 2020, 12:13 AM

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer

"All over the world every nation's the same
They've simply no notion of playing the game
They argue with umpires, they cheer when they've won
And they practice beforehand, which ~~spoils~~ ruins the fun."

Flander & Swann predicting post Brexit negotiations with everyone by several years.

Although with Johnson in charge Brabbins and Fyffe might be a better fit.

Sorry, couldn't suppress my inner scansion pedant,

KDLarsen · 18th January 2020, 03:26 AM

Originally Posted by Darat

He cant stop lying about Brexit

The Guardian: Boris Johnson's Big Ben Brexit bong plan falls flat
The Guardian: Boris Johnson's Big Ben Brexit bong plan falls flat.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lan-falls-flat

I'm getting the feeling that he's learned from his good buddy trump on this one, namely that the only people who care about his constant lying, are people who don't support or agree with him anyway.

He keeps claiming the Tories will build 40 new hospitals, when they've only set aside funds for actually building 6.

He keeps claiming they'll hire 50,000 new nurses, when their own manifesto made clear that 20,000 of those would be existing NHS nurses who were retained (with no mention of they were planning to do so).

Both of the above lies were pointed out repeatedly during the election campaign, and yet he keeps repeating them.

Edit: Just like he kept repeating the "£350 million for the NHS" during the referendum campaign, when he was told face to face, on camera, that that figure was a gross distortion.

P.J. Denyer · 18th January 2020, 04:47 PM

Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood

Sorry, couldn't suppress my inner scansion pedant,

Thanks, my mistake!

SezMe · 18th January 2020, 06:29 PM

Here is a photo essay on the current situation on the Irerland/Northern Ireland border. I hope you can view it from over there.

angrysoba · 18th January 2020, 07:03 PM

Originally Posted by SezMe

Here is a photo essay on the current situation on the Irerland/Northern Ireland border. I hope you can view it from over there.

Thanks for that. I have been to a couple of those places - Belleek and Clones.

Darat · 21st January 2020, 02:47 AM

We won't be bound by those EU regulations.... snip Any way you've all had 3 years to get ready...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-after-brexit

I know folk like The Don were concerned that there seemed to be no consideration for services in our post Brexit trading with the EU and was concerned about it was all about manufacturing. Well the government has now realised this and as is seemingly going to be this government's approach to anything difficult, to solve this disparity it's now also throwing manufacturing to the wolves.

NHS England targets not being reached? Drop the targets. Trade agreement with the EU difficult? Drop the trade agreement. HS2 difficult? Drop it.

I am seeing a pattern emerging...

The Don · 21st January 2020, 03:14 AM

I see the government's approach is going to be to blame individual businesses for failing to prepare adequately for Brexit despite there being no way to do so (and never mind that the government hasn't prepared) rather than acknowledging that there may be some disadvantages to Brexit.

Ian Osborne · 21st January 2020, 03:20 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

(and never mind that the government hasn't prepared)

And never mind that today, just ten days before we leave, we've still no idea what Brexit will be.

The Don · 21st January 2020, 03:21 AM

Originally Posted by Ian Osborne

And never mind that today, just ten days before we leave, we've still no idea what Brexit will be.

Well we do have 11 months of transition period to agree *everything* - perfectly doable

GlennB · 21st January 2020, 03:38 AM

Originally Posted by Darat

NHS England targets not being reached? Drop the targets. Trade agreement with the EU difficult? Drop the trade agreement. HS2 difficult? Drop it.

I am seeing a pattern emerging...

It's called "decluttering"

P.J. Denyer · 21st January 2020, 04:04 AM

I we give them their ******* bongs at eleven o'clock do you think they'd notice if we withdrew A50 at five to? We could all agree to keep saying "Yes you're right, nothing changed it was all Project Fear" until they've found something else to be angry about.

Oh, sorry, I forgot our current Captain and his mates have insured the Titanic for double it's value, stuffed the first class lifeboats with Bolly and caviar, locked down the lower decks and are full speed ahead for the iceburg.

shuttlt · 21st January 2020, 04:15 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

Well we do have 11 months of transition period to agree *everything* - perfectly doable

I'd lay money on it being agreed as a last minute panic whether we have 11 months or 50 years.

Lothian · 21st January 2020, 05:30 AM

Originally Posted by Ian Osborne

And never mind that today, just ten days before we leave, we've still no idea what Brexit will be.

Well, remoaner, that is all your fault.

Every leaver I have spoken to knows exactly what Brexit they were voting for and gets really upset when you suggest otherwise.

Lothian · 21st January 2020, 05:33 AM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

I'd lay money on it being agreed as a last minute panic whether we have 11 months or 50 years.

You would lose. We will not be ready to leave on a fully negotiated deal in 11 months. Either transition will be extended or we will move to a sub optimum arrangements in some areas with loads of resources then thrown at it to get off the "no deal" terms and on to a better agreement asap.

Ian Osborne · 21st January 2020, 06:37 AM

Is there anything more disturbingly stupid than a senior Brexiteer?

A Brexit Party MEP just complained that leaving the EU leaves UK with no representation

shuttlt · 21st January 2020, 07:17 AM

Originally Posted by Lothian

You would lose. We will not be ready to leave on a fully negotiated deal in 11 months. Either transition will be extended or we will move to a sub optimum arrangements in some areas with loads of resources then thrown at it to get off the "no deal" terms and on to a better agreement asap.

Most of the time to reach the current deal was spent pissing about and delaying until the clock ran down. We shall see if the situation is transformed, but I am doubtful.

The Don · 21st January 2020, 07:23 AM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

Most of the time to reach the current deal was spent pissing about and delaying until the clock ran down. We shall see if the situation is transformed, but I am doubtful.

IMO ~~Boris Johnson's~~ Dominic Cummings' plan is to leave with no deal and then allow the architects of Brexit to make a killing in the chaos that follows. If I'm right, there's no incentive to even try to do a deal though there may be some mileage in appearing to do one.

Lothian · 21st January 2020, 07:44 AM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

Most of the time to reach the current deal was spent pissing about and delaying until the clock ran down. We shall see if the situation is transformed, but I am doubtful.

From the UK side, since the referendum the 'Government' have been working flat out on solutions. Admittedly although the government has not changed since the referendum, the 'solution' they want their minions to work on has changed many times and has changed dramatically. This has not in my view been deliberate delay rather it reflects the changing views of the PM responding to the party, the ERG, the public and whim, as well as the changing of PM. Under Boris there have been at least 3 different outcomes requestef with the order that everyone works on the current option 100%. The work on previous ones is binned with each change of plan.

Even if the current No 10 instructions were to stick and the EU were fully on board there is not time to deliver a complete solution. That is because it is difficult. There is not, in many areas, a simple solution we know will work and which we are all just waiting until 31st December to agree with the EU.

16th January 2020, 09:38 AM	#2441
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,732	Originally Posted by Darat At least it will be a quick and simple agreement to get in place. All we'll have to negotiate is how high we have to jump... ...or how many toes we have to touch.
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,732	__________________ "I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills

16th January 2020, 12:00 PM	#2442
Darat Lackey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 102,478	The Independent: Trump threatened UK with 25% car tariffs unless it agreed to accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal The Independent: Trump threatened UK with 25% car tariffs unless it agreed to accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a9286496.html
	__________________ I wish I knew how to quit you

16th January 2020, 01:15 PM	#2443
lomiller Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 12,408	Originally Posted by ceptimus Of course I I don't expect a trade deal between the UK and the EU to be as "good" or as comprehensive as being inside the EU - the EU is determined that cannot be the case lest they see the rapid departure of other EU member countries. This has nothing to do with it. If the UK would agree to: - Adopt EU product standards - Adopt EU trade rules - No side deals on trade - A common customs area A trade deal that is as good as being in the EU is certainly possible. Not agreeing to these would make the new deal a net negative for both sides and there is no way the EU is just going to absorb all the losses resulting losses. Originally Posted by ceptimus But you have to factor in the cost to the UK of being in the EU - when the net payments by the UK to the EU (the cost of membership) are taken into account, then the existing "free" deal is nowhere near free. This is like the naïve 20 year old who things living at home isn’t a good deal if they have to pay rent, but has no idea how expensive it is to live the way they are accustomed.
	__________________ "Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen"

16th January 2020, 01:25 PM	#2444
lomiller Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 12,408	Originally Posted by ceptimus and the UK, once freed from the EU, can expect to do at least as well, and probably much better. What makes you think Trump would even honor a trade deal with the UK? Canada and Mexico are part of a comprehensive free trade deal with the US yet he unilaterally imposed tariffs on Steal and Aluminum imports in order to protect the US Steel industry.
	__________________ "Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen"

16th January 2020, 01:30 PM	#2445
Darat Lackey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 102,478	Originally Posted by lomiller What makes you think Trump would even honor a trade deal with the UK? Canada and Mexico are part of a comprehensive free trade deal with the US yet he unilaterally imposed tariffs on Steal and Aluminum imports in order to protect the US Steel industry. You only have to look above to my previous post to see how Trump is going to deal with the UK. Trump is acting exactly as people warned.
	__________________ I wish I knew how to quit you

16th January 2020, 01:34 PM	#2446
lomiller Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 12,408	Originally Posted by Darat You only have to look above to my previous post to see how Trump is going to deal with the UK. Trump is acting exactly as people warned. There are 2 issues. 1) What Trump would demand as part of a deal 2) Whether Trump would even honor the US side of the deal even if UK made the compromises he demanded.
	__________________ "Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen"

16th January 2020, 06:11 PM	#2447
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 44,251	Come on people. Trump will be gone at the end of the year.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

17th January 2020, 01:09 AM	#2448
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,426	Originally Posted by a_unique_person Come on people. Trump will be gone at the end of the year. I'm not so sure, I reckon that he's got a better than even chance of being reelected unless one or more of the following happens: There is a significant economic downturn before the election - though at this stage that cannot happen The Democrats find an exciting and charismatic candidate - have you seen the candidates ? Trump's base abandons him en-masse - ain't gonna to happen ever The GOP grows a spine - ain't gonna happen any time soon

17th January 2020, 01:39 AM	#2449
McHrozni Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,919	Originally Posted by The Don I'm not so sure, I reckon that he's got a better than even chance of being reelected unless one or more of the following happens: There is a significant economic downturn before the election - though at this stage that cannot happen Marginally possible, it doesn't even need to be that significant a downturn. Quote: The Democrats find an exciting and charismatic candidate - have you seen the candidates ? Largely impossible, true. Quote: The GOP grows a spine - ain't gonna happen any time soon Won't happen in this late stage, true. Quote: Trump's base abandons him en-masse - ain't gonna to happen ever Herein lies a weakness. Trump has a massively loyal base, but that base is only about 20-25% of the electorate. All the other support he might get at the polls are people voting Republican out of habbit or against the Democrat candidate or some other reason like that. Trumpian base is fanatical and literarily won't abandon Trump is he took a gun and shot up a school. "Dems made him do it, he has my vote against those baby killers" is what they'd say. That said, the obnoxious nature of his fanatics alienated many other potential supporters. To defeat Trump you don't need his base to abandon him, you primarily need to get people who usually vote Republican to sit the election out or vote for someone else. Most won't vote Democrat but they might vote third party or else leave at least the presidential part of the ballot blank. You don't need all of them either, 10% of such people are plenty and enough for a narrow Electoral College victory. Then of course there are the independents who might favor the challenger and of course the people who usually vote Democrat but sometimes sit the elections out to come out and vote. Trump's base helps the Democrats in all of those. The deplorable vote is too small to win elections by themselves and they chase away good candidates and the sane electorate, at least some of the time. His base is also his weakness. Trump has a chance to get reelected because he's an incumbent in good economy and those tend to hold their seats - but no party that faced impeachment of a sitting president managed to hold on to the White House in the next election. I wouldn't be so quick to grant him another term. If he lives that long, that is. Have you seen him walk lately? McHrozni
	__________________ لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه Last edited by McHrozni; 17th January 2020 at 01:40 AM.

17th January 2020, 02:20 AM	#2450
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,426	Originally Posted by McHrozni That said, the obnoxious nature of his fanatics alienated many other potential supporters. To defeat Trump you don't need his base to abandon him, you primarily need to get people who usually vote Republican to sit the election out or vote for someone else. Most won't vote Democrat but they might vote third party or else leave at least the presidential part of the ballot blank. You don't need all of them either, 10% of such people are plenty and enough for a narrow Electoral College victory. Then of course there are the independents who might favor the challenger and of course the people who usually vote Democrat but sometimes sit the elections out to come out and vote. You're right, if Trump's base causes other GOP voters to vote Democrat or simply not turn up then that would significantly damage President Trump's chances of reelection. The thing is that there's been precious little evidence of this. His approval rating seems to be where it was 3 years ago; there was a "blue ripple" in the House elections but no sign of electoral tectonic plates shifting (the GOP increased its grip on the Senate); GOP senators and House representatives - who are likely very sensitive to any changes in the electoral winds - are still steadfastly behind him. Of course all of this is off topic for a Brexit thread

17th January 2020, 02:50 AM	#2451
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,426	Once again the EU is demonstrating how unsporting and utterly foreign they are by preparing for the trade negotiations in advance and publishing their workings: Quote: The EU negotiating team is gearing up for talks with the UK about the post-Brexit relationship by holding a series of seminars for diplomats from the 27 member states. The presentations are being published online. Stuffed with jargon and seriously lacking in inspirational clipart, they provide important clues about how things might play out. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51133846 Every year I read the same book "Scott And Amundsen: The Last Place on Earth". The author is a complete Amundsen fanboi and spends a lot of time comparing and contrasting Amundsen's meticulous preparation to Scott's "have a go" approach. I think the results speak for themselves.

17th January 2020, 02:55 AM	#2452
Guybrush Threepwood Trainee Pirate Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: An Uaimh Posts: 3,343	Originally Posted by The Don Once again the EU is demonstrating how unsporting and utterly foreign they are by preparing for the trade negotiations in advance and publishing their workings: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51133846 Every year I read the same book "Scott And Amundsen: The Last Place on Earth". The author is a complete Amundsen fanboi and spends a lot of time comparing and contrasting Amundsen's meticulous preparation to Scott's "have a go" approach. I think the results speak for themselves. Indeed, Scott is a national hero, and Amundsen was a sneaky Norwegian cheat.

17th January 2020, 03:01 AM	#2453
Lothian should be banned Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Earth, specifically the crusty bit on the outside Posts: 17,511	Originally Posted by The Don Once again the EU is demonstrating how unsporting and utterly foreign they are by preparing for the trade negotiations in advance and publishing their workings: Yes but there are 27 of them. It is so much easier for counties if they can share resources and expense........ Oh.

17th January 2020, 03:13 AM	#2454
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,426	Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood Indeed, Scott is a national hero, and Amundsen was a sneaky Norwegian cheat. The book I mentioned is vehemently criticised for being a hatchet job on Scott and those same people praise Ranulph Fiennes' book to the rafters. Fiennes' book focuses on how brave and dogged Scott was - but that was never in doubt. He still used the wrong tools and was woefully under-prepared. It reminds me of the recent Current Events thread about some guy who had to be rescued from the wilds of Alaska when he burned down his shelter, killed his dog and ruined most of his food supply trying to light a fire. Some in the thread are saying that we fail to understand the survivalist mentality and that all he did was make one tiny mistake and he recovered from that brilliantly. My opinion was that he lacked critical skills, equipment and knowledge and was relying on luck far too much.

17th January 2020, 03:26 AM	#2455
McHrozni Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,919	Originally Posted by The Don You're right, if Trump's base causes other GOP voters to vote Democrat or simply not turn up then that would significantly damage President Trump's chances of reelection. The thing is that there's been precious little evidence of this. His approval rating seems to be where it was 3 years ago; there was a "blue ripple" in the House elections but no sign of electoral tectonic plates shifting (the GOP increased its grip on the Senate); GOP senators and House representatives - who are likely very sensitive to any changes in the electoral winds - are still steadfastly behind him. Given the nature of the election and the prevalence of gerrymandering the 2018 election was quite a blow to the Republicans. Yes they increased their grip in the Senate - but given the nature of the seats at play in 2018 that was a given. The Republicans also lost a number of state legislatures that will now re-district without Republicans drawing the districts. The losses will sting the party in the decade to come. Of course it's not very visible just yet, but that's actually because the 2012 election went so well for the Democrats in the Senate, not because the 2018 went so poorly. Second of all, GOP Senators and House representatives staunchly defend Trump because his base is strong enough to dominate Republican party primaries. That will continue into 2020 of course but the point is their hands are tied. They either support Trump or else seek unemployment benefits, thus far most of them prefer the latter. The long-term effect is that people who might wish to run for office for the Republican party are now shying away, depriving the party as a whole of quality candidates. Lack of quality candidates does hurt your overall vote. Third, Trump's base is mostly older people. The most loyal GOP voters are Silent and Boomer generations. Silent generation halved since 2016 as the share of total voters, Boomers decreased ever so slightly. About 1.5% of the electorate is changed every year and the change does not favor the GOP. All of these and more against what? An incumbent with an economy that is doing somewhat okay? Not great, but kind of okay. Trump has a chance to win in 2020, but his odds are poor. Bloomberg promised to spend up to $1 billion at defeating Trump - regardless of who's the Democratic candidate. Quote: Of course all of this is off topic for a Brexit thread In part, but since BJ is strongly banking on Trump helping him out, not really McHrozni
	__________________ لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

17th January 2020, 08:35 AM	#2456
catsmate No longer the 1 Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 27,072	Originally Posted by Mojo https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ays-trump-ally Can anyone say "poodle"?
	__________________ As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.

17th January 2020, 08:46 AM	#2457
Delphic Oracle Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 6,242	Originally Posted by catsmate Can anyone say "poodle"? How long before we bail you all out of some calamity with IMF loans that serve as puppet strings when "conditionalities" and "structural adjustment policies" are imposed? Don't worry too much, we've been doing it to other countries for decades and you don't hear anyone complaining. >:9

17th January 2020, 08:50 AM	#2458
catsmate No longer the 1 Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 27,072	Originally Posted by ceptimus I know exactly what it is. I was attempting to get Ian Osborne to do some research and realize that the USA and EU don't currently have a comprehensive "trade agreement". Originally Posted by ceptimus Like many remainers he assumed that the EU already has a wonderful trade deal with the USA which the UK could never expect to equal by itself. Originally Posted by ceptimus the UK, once freed from the EU, can expect to do at least as well, and probably much better.
	__________________ As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.

17th January 2020, 09:49 AM	#2459
Klimax NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ) Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Starship Wanderer - DS9 Posts: 13,830	Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle How long before we bail you all out of some calamity with IMF loans that serve as puppet strings when "conditionalities" and "structural adjustment policies" are imposed? Don't worry too much, we've been doing it to other countries for decades and you don't hear anyone complaining. >:9 Maybe one shouldn't be trying to bankrupt country if they don't want to be on short leash...
	__________________ ModBorg Engine: Ibalgin 400

17th January 2020, 09:52 AM	#2460
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,732	Originally Posted by The Don Once again the EU is demonstrating how unsporting and utterly foreign they are by preparing for the trade negotiations in advance and publishing their workings: "All over the world every nation's the same They've simply no notion of playing the game They argue with umpires, they cheer when they've won And they practice beforehand, which spoils the fun." Flander & Swann predicting post Brexit negotiations with everyone by several years. Although with Johnson in charge Brabbins and Fyffe might be a better fit.
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,732	__________________ "I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills

17th January 2020, 09:20 PM	#2461
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 44,251	Originally Posted by Darat The Independent: Trump threatened UK with 25% car tariffs unless it agreed to accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal The Independent: Trump threatened UK with 25% car tariffs unless it agreed to accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a9286496.html Would investigating Joe Biden be a cheaper alternative?
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

17th January 2020, 11:41 PM	#2462
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,426	The chancellor has said that there will be no alignment with EU rules post-Brexit. That's our largest export market down the Swannee then . Sorry, no link, I'm on my phone. edited to add..... Link and quote: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51157933 Quote: The chancellor has warned manufacturers that "there will not be alignment" with the EU after Brexit and insists firms must "adjust" to new regulations. Speaking to the Financial Times, Sajid Javid admitted not all businesses would benefit from Brexit. Last year, the automotive, food and drink and pharmaceutical sectors warned the government that no longer aligning with key EU rules would be damaging. Mr Javid declined to specify which EU rules he wanted to drop. also: Quote: The chancellor also said he wanted to double the UK's annual economic growth to between 2.7 and 2.8%. However, the outgoing governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, told the Financial Times last week he thought the UK's trend growth rate was much lower, at between 1 and 1.5%. He wants to double growth and I want a full head of hair but that isn't going to happen either. I fail to see how making it far more difficult to trade with a bloc which accounts for close to 50% of our international trade will act as a stimulus for growth.
	Last edited by The Don; 18th January 2020 at 12:43 AM.

18th January 2020, 12:13 AM	#2463
Guybrush Threepwood Trainee Pirate Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: An Uaimh Posts: 3,343	Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer "All over the world every nation's the same They've simply no notion of playing the game They argue with umpires, they cheer when they've won And they practice beforehand, which ~~spoils~~ ruins the fun." Flander & Swann predicting post Brexit negotiations with everyone by several years. Although with Johnson in charge Brabbins and Fyffe might be a better fit. Sorry, couldn't suppress my inner scansion pedant,

18th January 2020, 03:26 AM	#2464
KDLarsen Illuminator Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 4,743	Originally Posted by Darat He cant stop lying about Brexit The Guardian: Boris Johnson's Big Ben Brexit bong plan falls flat The Guardian: Boris Johnson's Big Ben Brexit bong plan falls flat. https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lan-falls-flat I'm getting the feeling that he's learned from his good buddy trump on this one, namely that the only people who care about his constant lying, are people who don't support or agree with him anyway. He keeps claiming the Tories will build 40 new hospitals, when they've only set aside funds for actually building 6. He keeps claiming they'll hire 50,000 new nurses, when their own manifesto made clear that 20,000 of those would be existing NHS nurses who were retained (with no mention of they were planning to do so). Both of the above lies were pointed out repeatedly during the election campaign, and yet he keeps repeating them. Edit: Just like he kept repeating the "£350 million for the NHS" during the referendum campaign, when he was told face to face, on camera, that that figure was a gross distortion.
KDLarsen Illuminator Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 4,743	Last edited by KDLarsen; 18th January 2020 at 03:28 AM.

18th January 2020, 04:47 PM	#2465
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,732	Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood Sorry, couldn't suppress my inner scansion pedant, Thanks, my mistake!
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,732	__________________ "I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills

18th January 2020, 06:29 PM	#2466
SezMe post-pre-born Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Santa Barbara, CA Posts: 25,183	Here is a photo essay on the current situation on the Irerland/Northern Ireland border. I hope you can view it from over there.

18th January 2020, 07:03 PM	#2467
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 32,922	Originally Posted by SezMe Here is a photo essay on the current situation on the Irerland/Northern Ireland border. I hope you can view it from over there. Thanks for that. I have been to a couple of those places - Belleek and Clones.
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

21st January 2020, 02:47 AM	#2468
Darat Lackey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 102,478	We won't be bound by those EU regulations.... snip Any way you've all had 3 years to get ready... https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-after-brexit I know folk like The Don were concerned that there seemed to be no consideration for services in our post Brexit trading with the EU and was concerned about it was all about manufacturing. Well the government has now realised this and as is seemingly going to be this government's approach to anything difficult, to solve this disparity it's now also throwing manufacturing to the wolves. NHS England targets not being reached? Drop the targets. Trade agreement with the EU difficult? Drop the trade agreement. HS2 difficult? Drop it. I am seeing a pattern emerging...
	__________________ I wish I knew how to quit you

21st January 2020, 03:14 AM	#2469
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,426	I see the government's approach is going to be to blame individual businesses for failing to prepare adequately for Brexit despite there being no way to do so (and never mind that the government hasn't prepared) rather than acknowledging that there may be some disadvantages to Brexit.

21st January 2020, 03:20 AM	#2470
Ian Osborne JREF Kid Tagger Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 8,476	Originally Posted by The Don (and never mind that the government hasn't prepared) And never mind that today, just ten days before we leave, we've still no idea what Brexit will be.
	__________________ "Faith without doubt leads to moral arrogance, the eternal pratfall of the religiously convinced" - Joe Klein, Time magazine "The fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." - Carl Sagan

21st January 2020, 03:21 AM	#2471
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,426	Originally Posted by Ian Osborne And never mind that today, just ten days before we leave, we've still no idea what Brexit will be. Well we do have 11 months of transition period to agree everything - perfectly doable

21st January 2020, 03:38 AM	#2472
GlennB Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Wales Posts: 28,009	Originally Posted by Darat NHS England targets not being reached? Drop the targets. Trade agreement with the EU difficult? Drop the trade agreement. HS2 difficult? Drop it. I am seeing a pattern emerging... It's called "decluttering"
	__________________ "Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut

21st January 2020, 04:04 AM	#2473
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,732	I we give them their ******* bongs at eleven o'clock do you think they'd notice if we withdrew A50 at five to? We could all agree to keep saying "Yes you're right, nothing changed it was all Project Fear" until they've found something else to be angry about. Oh, sorry, I forgot our current Captain and his mates have insured the Titanic for double it's value, stuffed the first class lifeboats with Bolly and caviar, locked down the lower decks and are full speed ahead for the iceburg.
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,732	__________________ "I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills

21st January 2020, 04:15 AM	#2474
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 9,050	Originally Posted by The Don Well we do have 11 months of transition period to agree everything - perfectly doable I'd lay money on it being agreed as a last minute panic whether we have 11 months or 50 years.
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 9,050

21st January 2020, 05:30 AM	#2475
Lothian should be banned Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Earth, specifically the crusty bit on the outside Posts: 17,511	Originally Posted by Ian Osborne And never mind that today, just ten days before we leave, we've still no idea what Brexit will be. Well, remoaner, that is all your fault. Every leaver I have spoken to knows exactly what Brexit they were voting for and gets really upset when you suggest otherwise.