Continuation Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Lothian

Customs checks will be needed. Otherwise probably not much from a passenger point of view. Demand is likely to be lower as EU UK trade is likely to be lower.

I suppose it depends on how disruptive the customs checks are and how well equipped the UK is to carry them out. If we end up with a permanent "Operation Stack" on the way to the channel ports then that'll be a real pain in the behind.

It will also depend on how hard a line the UK chooses to take with passenger traffic. At the moment as long as you're not in a white van, loaded to the bump-stops then you're unlikely to be stopped. If the UK decides to take a hard line on smuggling then every car could be searched. Then again IMO it's more likely that the government will turn a blind eye to individuals' smuggling in order to lessen the delays at the ports and in order to keep people happy.

[The Don]

The madness of Brexit...

Quote:

But Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers insisted the bill "takes back control of our waters".

She said it would enable the UK "to create a sustainable, profitable fishing industry for our coastal communities, whilst securing the long-term health of British fisheries".

She added that leaving the "failed" Common Fisheries Policy was "one of the most important benefits of Brexit".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51289388

One of the most important benefits relates to an industry which represents a fraction of one percent of GDP and where the benefits are far from clear when 80% of UK catch is currently sold to the EU.

Meanwhile much larger industries are looking at significant negative consequences.

[Captain_Swoop]

Most fish and seafood processed in the UK comes from foreign boats and imports.
90% of it is re exported after processing to Europe.

For example. Whitby Lobsters go fresh and alive in special lorry trailers with water tanks etc to Europe.
Whitby 'Scampi' (Frozen, breadcrumbed Langoustine) is actually made from frozen prawns imported from Thailand as the local caught Langoustine is more valuable sold live to European restaurants.

[Steve]

Originally Posted by Mojo

Yes, but they’ll most likely be caught by the migrant salary threshold. How many narwhals are going to be earning over £30,000 a year?

Just being a narwhal should be worth at least £30,000. A fund should be set up to support them and keep them from leaving for a better offer.

[Lothian]

Originally Posted by The Don

It will also depend on how hard a line the UK chooses to take with passenger traffic. At the moment as long as you're not in a white van, loaded to the bump-stops then you're unlikely to be stopped. If the UK decides to take a hard line on smuggling then every car could be searched. Then again IMO it's more likely that the government will turn a blind eye to individuals' smuggling in order to lessen the delays at the ports and in order to keep people happy.

Taking control of our borders, a key brexit pledge, might well be look the other way as people smuggle goods over the border. Until UK businesses complain about being undercut.
One of those lose lose situations.

[Vixen]

So it's done. Bye then.

[sphenisc]

Originally Posted by Steve

Just being a narwhal should be worth at least £30,000. A fund should be set up to support them and keep them from leaving for a better offer.

There's a couple of places available in the Royal family if they're up for attending social events and flying the odd helicopter.

[Steve]

Originally Posted by sphenisc

There's a couple of places available in the Royal family if they're up for attending social events and flying the odd helicopter.

HRH Narwhal of Sussex. Why not.

[The Don]

Not directly related to Brexit, though Brexit may be a factor:

Quote:

UK car production sank to its lowest in almost a decade in 2019, with output forecast to continue falling this year.

Factories produced 1.3 million units last year, down 14.2% on 2018 and the third consecutive year of decline, according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturing and Traders.

Structural changes in the industry, Brexit uncertainty, and weak exports were all factors, the trade body said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51300835

The car industry is worried about tariffs post-Brexit:

Quote:

Production of cars to be sold in the UK fell 12.3% last year, while vehicles for export fell 14.7%. With 81% of cars built for export - the vast majority sent to the European Union - Mr Hawes again stressed the importance of a barrier-free EU trade deal after Brexit.

Then again, the automotive industry is tiny compared to the service sector and the needs of the service sector are being ignored completely.

[The Don]

Meanwhile the BBC is saying what is going to change and not going to change post-Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51194363

Note that the things that aren't going to change; being able to use the EU lines at passport control, pet passports, EHIC cards, pensions, living and working in the EU, pensions, budget contributions and trade; aren't going to change because we'll be in an (up to 11 months long) transition period. There's absolutely no guarantee of any of it once the transition period is over.

[Lothian]

Originally Posted by The Don

Meanwhile the BBC is saying what is going to change and not going to change post-Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51194363

Note that the things that aren't going to change; being able to use the EU lines at passport control, pet passports, EHIC cards, pensions, living and working in the EU, pensions, budget contributions and trade; aren't going to change because we'll be in an (up to 11 months long) transition period. There's absolutely no guarantee of any of it once the transition period is over.

The only change for the next 11 months is we lose the ability to influence the rules.

An example of our fantastic negotiating ability. We give up influence & representation and we get nothing back.

We could easily have stayed in the EU with influence until the year end.

I dare say some muppets will be celebrating this pathetic demonstration of international bargaining incompetence.

[3point14]

Originally Posted by Lothian

We could easily have stayed in the EU with influence until the year end.

It would have been less expensive too.

The entirety of Europe ****** up due to an internal Tory party dispute that that ephemeral **** Cameron couldn't deal with.

[ceptimus]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...waning-exports

http://eurometal.net/italian-car-pro...n-falls-again/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/25/glob...recession.html

... and equally caused by Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51014588

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...waning-exports

http://eurometal.net/italian-car-pro...n-falls-again/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/25/glob...recession.html

... and equally caused by Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51014588

It would be good netiquette for peeps to sum up what their links are about. Not everyone has time to click on sundry links.

From what I understand, if the UK fails to come to a trade agreement with the EU regarding car sales, there is likely to be a 10% tariff each way.

With the issue of non-alignment as threatened by Javid (_sp?) EU countries won't be accepting any vehicle that fails to fulfil EU technical requirements.

Quote:

Importing new and used vehicles
If the UK leaves the EU and the EEA without a deal, this will entail changes to the import of vehicles type-approved by the UK Vehicle Certification Agency (VCA). After the UK leaves the EU, approvals granted by the VCA are no longer valid in the EEA. Vehicles may be type-approved by VCA even if they are imported from outside the UK. The type-approval numbers of vehicles approved by VCA begin with e11. This number can be found in the registration certificate or manufacturer's plate.

Importing used vehicles after Brexit
If a vehicle type-approved by VCA has been taken into use or registered in the UK or the EEA before a no-deal Brexit, it can be approved based on the VCA approval without evidence of it being placed on the market. The date when the vehicle was taken into use or registered can be found on the vehicle's foreign registration certificate.

If a vehicle type-approved by VCA has been taken into use or registered in the UK or the EEA after a no-deal Brexit, you must present evidence of the vehicle being placed on the market. This evidence may include, for example, commercial documents, such as sales agreements, invoices or consignment notes. A certificate of conformity (CoC) alone is not considered sufficient evidence. Compliance with technical requirements can be proved with documents on component approval. These can be obtained from the vehicle manufacturer or VCA. [Vixen: UK Vehicle Certification Agency]

Importing new vehicles after Brexit
Vehicles type-approved by VCA before a no-deal Brexit can be granted individual approval in Finland after Brexit, if they meet the relevant technical requirements. This can be proved with documents on component approval. These can be obtained from the vehicle manufacturer or VCA.

Type-approvals granted by VCA after a no-deal Brexit are not valid in Finland. Individual approval and evidence on conformity is required in Finland. For more information on the documents required for the vehicle in question, please contact a vehicle inspection station that grants individual approvals.

https://www.traficom.fi/en/transport...tizens-finland

Hmmm. I am getting a new car in Spring. Looks like it might be unwise to buy a British model.

[Lothian]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...waning-exports

http://eurometal.net/italian-car-pro...n-falls-again/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/25/glob...recession.html

... and equally caused by Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51014588

You have missed the point yet again. The article above makes clear that the UK industry has seen a 12% drop. That is while we are members of the EU with no tariffs or barriers to EU trade. It appears in line with other countries trends. However 4 out of every 5 cars made in the UK leave our shores with most going to the EU. If tariffs are added that will have an effect on top of the worldwide slump and could question the viability of a domestic car industry.

You seem to lack understanding how the way we trade with the EU now will be affected post transition. Brexit doesn't affect everything but the basics of price and demand and international taxes is not a difficult subject to grasp. Is your ignorance feigned or do you really not understand?

[ceptimus]

Originally Posted by Lothian

You have missed the point yet again. The article above makes clear that the UK industry has seen a 12% drop. That is while we are members of the EU with no tariffs or barriers to EU trade. It appears in line with other countries trends. However 4 out of every 5 cars made in the UK leave our shores with most going to the EU. If tariffs are added that will have an effect on top of the worldwide slump and could question the viability of a domestic car industry.

You seem to lack understanding how the way we trade with the EU now will be affected post transition. Brexit doesn't affect everything but the basics of price and demand and international taxes is not a difficult subject to grasp. Is your ignorance feigned or do you really not understand?

How patronizing. You really do think you're smart, don't you?

You'll be able to see the ACTUAL results of Brexit if you just wait patiently for another few years. Then we'll know who was right.

[Lothian]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

How patronizing. You really do think you're smart, don't you?

No, fairly average, but you clearly missed the point of the article. I was wondering if that was deliberate?

Quote:

You'll be able to see the ACTUAL results of Brexit if you just wait patiently for another few years. Then we'll know who was right.

I don't think we need to wait that long. We are seeing some of the results before we have left. They don't hide well.

[ceptimus]

Originally Posted by Lothian

I don't think we need to wait that long. We are seeing some of the results before we have left. They don't hide well.

Well, we'll have to disagree on that. Uncertainty has been the biggest problem up to now - and that uncertainty was made much worse by the action of all the remainers in parliament. Thankfully the election has sidelined them, and there's now less uncertainty and should be even less this time next year. Then we'll begin to see just how bad, or how good, Brexit actually is - but it will likely take another couple of years - so 2023 - before a reasonable assessment can be made.

[Lothian]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

Well, we'll have to disagree on that... but it will likely take another couple of years - so 2023 - before a reasonable assessment can be made.

That fall from a booming Economy to the worst in the G7 is in spite of £70bn of quantative easing, 8 years worth of EU funding in lieu of an emergency budget. We have also seen 7000 finance jobs move from the city to the EU. Many businesses have gone under. 10,000 EU national have left the NHS, which has record numbers of nursing vacancies.
True we have yet to see the worst of brexit but we have seen the direction.

[Captain_Swoop]

US insists chlorinated chicken must be on menu in any UK trade agreement

Quote:

Chlorinated chicken must be part of a post-Brexit trade agreement, the US secretary of state says – insisting that will make it a “really good deal” for British shoppers.

Mike Pompeo confirmed that Washington will demand the inclusion of its controversial agricultural products, despite Boris Johnson insisting he will not let them in if they lower standards.

Asked if the row over the chlorine-washed chicken would be “the biggest barrier” to a deal, Mr Pompeo agreed the issue would be “real contentious” – but warned US farmers would demand it.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9310081.html

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

US insists chlorinated chicken must be on menu in any UK trade agreement



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9310081.html

Well that will never happen because now that the UK has it's freedom back it will be a rules giver and not taker, so the US will just follow the UK's line.
And besides once Boris Johnson promises something he will never ever change his mind or go back on what he said right?

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser

Well that will never happen because now that the UK has it's freedom back it will be a rules giver and not taker, so the US will just follow the UK's line.
And besides once Boris Johnson promises something he will never ever change his mind or go back on what he said right?

Change his mind?!

That implies he actually decided when promising, as opposed to saying something that has as much weight as my saying "it's a bit parky outside ".

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

US insists chlorinated chicken must be on menu in any UK trade agreement



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9310081.html

The prohibition was a protectionist measure to support EU chicken farmers, with the Netherlands and Poland topping the export list. I'm not sure it will matter so much now, but I suppose UK chicken farmers might still want to keep it anyways.

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

Well, we'll have to disagree on that. Uncertainty has been the biggest problem up to now - and that uncertainty was made much worse by the action of all the remainers in parliament. Thankfully the election has sidelined them, and there's now less uncertainty and should be even less this time next year. Then we'll begin to see just how bad, or how good, Brexit actually is - but it will likely take another couple of years - so 2023 - before a reasonable assessment can be made.

There is less uncertainty now?

The no-deal Brexit has been postponed until the end of the year. The PM in charge was one of the main causes for uncertainty and chaos. He agreed a deal with the EU, then resigned over it and sabotaged ratification in Parliament for months on end, won the PM seat, renegaded on some key points he promised to keep and presented the rest as a completely new Brexit deal, while making it unlawful to extend negotiations beyond the unrealistically short 11 month transition period.

There's less uncertainty now than in November of last year, but that's not an impressive bar to set. It's also a temporary respite, come June the country will be in the exact same situation it has been for the past couple of years, but without the ability to step back and repair the damage.

There's more uncertainty than ever on Brexit.

McHrozni

[Darat]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

Well, we'll have to disagree on that. Uncertainty has been the biggest problem up to now - and that uncertainty was made much worse by the action of all the remainers in parliament. Thankfully the election has sidelined them, and there's now less uncertainty and should be even less this time next year. Then we'll begin to see just how bad, or how good, Brexit actually is - but it will likely take another couple of years - so 2023 - before a reasonable assessment can be made.

Strange you still refer to the likes of Johnson as "remainers". That aside.

Working with a couple of companies at the moment (software projects) that are going to be very effected I can tell you that you are wrong. Everything is just as uncertain and businesses still cannot plan for leaving the transition period as they still don't know what trade agreement will be in place.

[Pixel42]

This says it all.

[The Don]

I note that the only industry which is receiving explicit red lines in the trade negotiations is the fishing industry which accounts for less than 0.1% of GDP and which is currently utterly reliant on the EU as its primary market.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51319257

I realise that it has significant totemic value, especially when it comes to explicit expressions of sovereignty but I find it very worrying that an industry which isn't even a rounding error on a national economic scale has such power in the negotiations.

I also note these from Laura Kuenssberg, the BBC's resident Brexit cheerleader:

Quote:

That creates opportunity and extra freedoms. Laws decided in our Parliament will be supreme.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51319767

What freedoms would these be ? To dismiss people from their jobs at will, allow toxic dumping ?

Quote:

But Brexit, with all its possibilities, and potential pitfalls, is now here.

What are these "possibilities" ? If the UK ends up with trade deals which are either the same ones as we had as an EU member or on worse terms, how does this improve matters ?

[Ian Osborne]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

This says it all.

Awesome, I'm going to use that as a temporary avatar.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

US insists chlorinated chicken must be on menu in any UK trade agreement



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9310081.html

There's also the issue of eggs: UK eggs are banned in the USA and US eggs in the UK.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

[Vixen]

What is the EU going to do about the presence of the British Isles on its EURO notes?

[Ian Osborne]

Originally Posted by Vixen

What is the EU going to do about the presence of the British Isles on its EURO notes?

Nothing. We're still part of the European continent, even if we've left the European Union.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by The Don

I note that the only industry which is receiving explicit red lines in the trade negotiations is the fishing industry which accounts for less than 0.1% of GDP and which is currently utterly reliant on the EU as its primary market.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51319257

I realise that it has significant totemic value, especially when it comes to explicit expressions of sovereignty but I find it very worrying that an industry which isn't even a rounding error on a national economic scale has such power in the negotiations.

I also note these from Laura Kuenssberg, the BBC's resident Brexit cheerleader:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51319767

What freedoms would these be ? To dismiss people from their jobs at will, allow toxic dumping ?



What are these "possibilities" ? If the UK ends up with trade deals which are either the same ones as we had as an EU member or on worse terms, how does this improve matters ?

Laura Kuenssburg is a good reporter. Really knows her stuff.

UK importers and exporters (and EU same to the UK) are going to have a shock to realise they now need paperwork for customs with the country prefix added, as non-EU. It's gonna be disruptive.

I've had to comply EC goods lists to HMRC. It was pretty straightforward, just a list of suppliers outside the UK but in the EU.

That's all going to have to change with an individual prefix of each country, EU or not.

The Norn Irish are going to be fed up. It is all very well for Boris to tell them to 'just throw it in the bin', he's not the one who going to have to deal with the delays and annoyances caused by his lies.

[GlennB]

Originally Posted by Vixen

What is the EU going to do about the presence of the British Isles on its EURO notes?

That's just Europe and includes other non-EU countries.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by GlennB

That's just Europe and includes other non-EU countries.

...b-but I thought the whole idea was to break away and regain our sovrintee.

[Lothian]

Originally Posted by Vixen

What is the EU going to do about the presence of the British Isles on its EURO notes?

Well....... the EU has history in that area.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Lothian

Well....... the EU has history in that area.

To be fair so does the rest of the UK...

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Vixen

Laura Kuenssburg is a good reporter. Really knows her stuff.

If she does know her stuff then she should be specific about the opportunities, possibilities and extra freedoms she sees coming from the UK's exit from the EU.

[toto]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

So you've brexited now? I didn't see the fireworks and parties. Did they do it quietly in the night?


And the big question is, why couldn't this have been done sooner?

Actually we leave 11pm UK time tonight, Midnight Brussels time, so that is the time to see how quiet the celebrations or other manifestations of emotion are.
It took so long because Teresa May ran what was in hindsight a poorly run and unnecessary General Election and therefore didn't have sufficient votes to get her deal through Parliament.

[toto]

Should read Theresa

[LondonJohn]

Originally Posted by Vixen

...b-but I thought the whole idea was to break away and regain our sovrintee.

I thought you identified as Finnish