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Old 24th May 2020, 12:26 PM   #2321
Matthew Best
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I have an interesting scenario. My son has been offered a job in the UK, available now. Assuming he can get there (I can’t see a possible way now) would be get to bypass quarantine as a) he has already had the virus and has fully recovered and b) Australia has almost eradicated the virus? I guess he would.
If his job is as senior advisor to Boris Johnson, then yes, he can happily bypass the quarantine.
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Old 24th May 2020, 01:37 PM   #2322
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I never bothered checking the low countries, but it's a fact that some of the very low impact countries have high fish consumption.

I can only speak for my family, and it's not checked as a routine matter. I have annual blood tests and my 10 yo son does as well. Interestingly, they check his vitamin B levels, but haven't ever looked at D.

Now that's bloody interesting, because I was looking hard a few weeks ago - when people pooh-poohed the idea, but there's a whole heap of research available now.

Some highlights:

link

And Science Daily to finish off:

I'm going to go and post all that in the territory thread.
Given vitamin D deficiency is a problem when one doesn't get enough sunlight on the skin, we should see a higher fatality rate in NY compared to Southern California. Is that happening?

Looking at the citations:
From Science Direct: "severe deficiency are twice as likely"

A severe deficiency in vitamin D is a serious problem regardless.

Where did they get this data:
Quote:
By analyzing publicly available patient data from around the globe, Backman and his team discovered a strong correlation between vitamin D levels and cytokine storm -- a hyperinflammatory condition caused by an overactive immune system -- as well as a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and mortality.
It sounds great, look at all those countries. How many patients had the data available? I want to see the data.

It's not that vitamin D isn't a very important vitamin. I'm just leary of these magical discoveries.
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Old 24th May 2020, 01:43 PM   #2323
Aridas
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Given vitamin D deficiency is a problem when one doesn't get enough sunlight on the skin, we should see a higher fatality rate in NY compared to Southern California. Is that happening?
Err... kinda? Not quite, though. While vitamin D doesn't occur naturally in most base food stuffs, a lot of foods that one can buy at a supermarket have some added apparently. That'll generally throw off a lot of sunlight-based calculations.

Personally, I likely get a bit of an excess because of the amount of milk I drink and a daily supplementary multivitamin, not counting any of the rest. Not that I expect that the excess does much more than get flushed down the toilet.
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Old 24th May 2020, 01:57 PM   #2324
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Here's the actual study:

The Role of Vitamin D in Suppressing Cytokine Storm in COVID-19 Patients and Associated Mortality
Quote:
Reported medical characteristics of 793 COVID-19 patients were used to evaluate the intensity of cytokine storm in severe COVID-19 using C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Medical data reported from a national study of 3,848 participants in 2007- 2008 was used to investigate the association between Vit D status and CRP.
Findings:
Quote:
Age-specific CFR in Italy, Spain, and France (70 yo ≤ age < 80 yo) was substantially
higher (>1.9 times) than other countries (Germany, South Korea, China); for the elderly
(age ≥70 yo), Italy and Spain present the highest CFR (>1.7 times that of other countries).
The age-specific ratio of confirmed cases in Italy, Spain, and France has also been
substantially higher than in other countries. A more severe deficiency of Vit D (mean 25-
hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) concentration <0.25 ng/L) is reported in Italy and Spain

compared to other countries. Our analysis of the reported clinical data (25OHD, CRP)
from multiple studies suggests that elimination of severe Vit D deficiency reduces the risk
of high CRP levels (odds ratio of 2) which may be used as a surrogate marker of cytokine
storm which was estimated to a potential reduction in severe COVID-19 cases of up to
15%.
Are they using general information to draw specific conclusions?

I need time to read the rest.
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Old 24th May 2020, 02:56 PM   #2325
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Err... kinda? Not quite, though. While vitamin D doesn't occur naturally in most base food stuffs, a lot of foods that one can buy at a supermarket have some added apparently. That'll generally throw off a lot of sunlight-based calculations.

Personally, I likely get a bit of an excess because of the amount of milk I drink and a daily supplementary multivitamin, not counting any of the rest. Not that I expect that the excess does much more than get flushed down the toilet.
So to what degree do you think this throws off the general statement there is less vitamin D deficiency in sunnier climates? And don't they eat/drink roughly the same amount of vitamin D in foods in the populated latitudes? Or take supplements in those latitudes?

It was a general statement about an observation that might lead to an hypothesis.
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Because feeding poor people is socialism.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 24th May 2020 at 02:58 PM.
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Old 24th May 2020, 05:16 PM   #2326
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Vit D is a fat based vitamin, it should be found in fatty stuff. Egg yolks and fatty fish are the highest natural sources.

https://nutritiondata.self.com/foods...000000-2w.html
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Old 24th May 2020, 05:51 PM   #2327
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A mathematical curiosity.
world population growth is 220,000 a day so with deaths at 346,000 from Covid that is just a day and a half.
A remarkably disruptive virus.
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Old 24th May 2020, 06:27 PM   #2328
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post

Where did they get this data:It sounds great, look at all those countries. How many patients had the data available? I want to see the data.

It's not that vitamin D isn't a very important vitamin. I'm just leary of these magical discoveries.
I know that my country has a national health database that can be accessed by researchers (including journalists). I think that's at least somewhat common in OECD countries which have a NHS. It gives researchers an opportunity to find statisitical connections between drugs/symptoms/diseases etc without leaving their desks. I understand that it requires caution/skill to avoid data-mining bias.
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Old 24th May 2020, 06:37 PM   #2329
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A month ago I posted this;

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
As an aside, I’ve marked May 24 on my calendar. Currently Florida and Georgia are #10 and #11 respectively in total deaths. I’m really curious as to how they’ll be ranked a month from now with Georgia opening things up a bit yesterday and Florida trending that way. Georgia is of particular interest, since we have a second home there. If I think of it I’ll check Georgia and Florida standings every Friday and post the results here. Lots of variables to be sure, but it may give some insight as to whether they opened up prematurely or not.
Well, the results of my little “experiment” are in. At the end of one month, Florida dropped one spot to 11th, and Georgia dropped three spots to 14th.



So, not what I predicted if Florida and Georgia opened “too soon”.

Thoughts...

1) Maybe a month was not long enough. We’ll see. I’ll still be looking for effects going forward, but I don’t want to be accused of goalpost moving.

2) Maybe Total Deaths wasn’t the best metric, but it was the one I chose.

3) We have to trust the statistics coming out of Georgia and Florida are accurate. There’s been some accusations of shenanigans, especially in FL, but World-o-Meter was my compilation of choice.

4) There’s a chance that the heat and humidity in the South is helping keep the spread of the virus down.

5) And, finally, there’s a chance that Kemp and Desantis were not being as reckless as some thought. And that’s a good thing, as even Joe Scarborough had to admit:



Back when this one month “study” started, US deaths were about 52,000. Helps put things in perspective as we hit the 100,000 mark tomorrow.
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Old 24th May 2020, 06:44 PM   #2330
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
I know that my country has a national health database that can be accessed by researchers (including journalists). I think that's at least somewhat common in OECD countries which have a NHS. It gives researchers an opportunity to find statisitical connections between drugs/symptoms/diseases etc without leaving their desks. I understand that it requires caution/skill to avoid data-mining bias.
Does it include all the lab data from all the COVID 19 patients and did they all have vitamin D levels? And now that I think about it, wouldn't anyone with a vitamin D deficiency have had that corrected right away when it was detected?

I didn't mean there wasn't data, I meant was there specific data on vitamin D levels on thousands of patients?

Turns out we don't have to guess though since I linked to the original study. And at first glance, they drew a lot of conclusions from indirect evidence.
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Old 24th May 2020, 06:49 PM   #2331
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Does it include all the lab data from all the COVID 19 patients and did they all have vitamin D levels? And now that I think about it, wouldn't anyone with a vitamin D deficiency have had that corrected right away when it was detected?
One of those pieces contained a note that massive doses of D to solve the deficiency didn't work, which is why NHS is recommending everyone dose daily. I imagine it must take time for the immune system to gear up with the vitamin D, so it adds up to me.
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Old 24th May 2020, 06:55 PM   #2332
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
So to what degree do you think this throws off the general statement there is less vitamin D deficiency in sunnier climates? And don't they eat/drink roughly the same amount of vitamin D in foods in the populated latitudes? Or take supplements in those latitudes?

It was a general statement about an observation that might lead to an hypothesis.
Hard to say, to answer your first question directly. The point was more directed at the highlighted, as it was, though. Vitamin D deficiency frequently does not take place when people do not get enough sunlight, in short, given that that's not the only route to get a sufficient quantity. That doesn't change that places where more people spend more time outside in the sun are probably more likely to have less in the way of people deficient in Vitamin D, just that it throws a much harder to account for variable into the equation.
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Old 24th May 2020, 07:14 PM   #2333
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Got my free Covid-19 test this morning. Results in a couple days. I was there 30 minutes early and the line was quite long already. I snuck in the exit and asked about expedited testing. (I wasn't going to be able to stand that long in a line.) Good idea, as they told me just to drive around the back of the building for special Handicapped access. Got right in (one car ahead). Took about 10 minutes overall.
I do find it eerily ironic that they are doing pandemic testing at the Minneapolis Armory, when that was the location where they set up triage hospital beds in the movie Contagion.
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Old 24th May 2020, 07:22 PM   #2334
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Does it include all the lab data from all the COVID 19 patients and did they all have vitamin D levels? And now that I think about it, wouldn't anyone with a vitamin D deficiency have had that corrected right away when it was detected?

I didn't mean there wasn't data, I meant was there specific data on vitamin D levels on thousands of patients?

Turns out we don't have to guess though since I linked to the original study. And at first glance, they drew a lot of conclusions from indirect evidence.
It's updated continuously. I visit my GP, blood test is taken, blood pressure measured, urine test if I remembered to bring a sample, and into the database it goes. The prescription medicines I use can be found there as well, along with other medical history such as accidents. It would be the same with all tests and measurements of Covid patients along with their medical history. They don't necessarily do every possible test, though. So levels of Vitamin D may not be known for a number of patients. However, you could do a search on all patients where vitamin D is mentioned.

(What researchers can't get out of the database is any particular individual's identity, at least without authorization)
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Old 24th May 2020, 07:33 PM   #2335
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Hard to say, to answer your first question directly. The point was more directed at the highlighted, as it was, though. Vitamin D deficiency frequently does not take place when people do not get enough sunlight, in short, given that that's not the only route to get a sufficient quantity. That doesn't change that places where more people spend more time outside in the sun are probably more likely to have less in the way of people deficient in Vitamin D, just that it throws a much harder to account for variable into the equation.
There could be several confounding variables. We've mentioned Japan before, so I found this study from 2019 showing low levels of Vitamin D in Japanese women:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6398852/

However, Japan has a good NHS and people visit their GPs regularly at little or no cost. I'm betting that the above study was discussed in Japanese medical journals, so perhaps their GPs started looking for it and began recommending supplements to their patients? It seems plausinbe to me.
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Old 24th May 2020, 08:00 PM   #2336
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
One of those pieces contained a note that massive doses of D to solve the deficiency didn't work, which is why NHS is recommending everyone dose daily. I imagine it must take time for the immune system to gear up with the vitamin D, so it adds up to me.
I'm thinking of D did something great good for immune systems it would have been defined decade or two ago.

Do you think D does something particular to C19?
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Old 24th May 2020, 08:15 PM   #2337
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
I'm thinking of D did something great good for immune systems it would have been defined decade or two ago.

Do you think D does something particular to C19?
There is some evidence that it is useful for prevention/treatment of upper respiratory tract infections. The efficacy is not clear cut, but this is why there is interest in it re:COVID-19
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Old 24th May 2020, 08:18 PM   #2338
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
I'm thinking of D did something great good for immune systems it would have been defined decade or two ago.
To some extent, it has. An abstract, though, might be an okay thing to poke at to start with that.

Quote:
It is now clear that vitamin D has important roles in addition to its classic effects on calcium and bone homeostasis. As the vitamin D receptor is expressed on immune cells (B cells, T cells and antigen presenting cells) and these immunologic cells are all are capable of synthesizing the active vitamin D metabolite, vitamin D has the capability of acting in an autocrine manner in a local immunologic milieu. Vitamin D can modulate the innate and adaptive immune responses. Deficiency in vitamin D is associated with increased autoimmunity as well as an increased susceptibility to infection. As immune cells in autoimmune diseases are responsive to the ameliorative effects of vitamin D, the beneficial effects of supplementing vitamin D deficient individuals with autoimmune disease may extend beyond the effects on bone and calcium homeostasis.
Going further, of course, it's not so much that more is great so much as that too little is bad.
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Old 24th May 2020, 08:39 PM   #2339
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
I'm thinking of D did something great good for immune systems it would have been defined decade or two ago.
From one decade ago:

Quote:
Vitamin D can modulate the innate and adaptive immune responses. Deficiency in vitamin D is associated with increased autoimmunity as well as an increased susceptibility to infection.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3166406/.

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Do you think D does something particular to C19?
I don't think it does anything to Covid, but given the fact that 80% or more people who catch Covid hardly notice it, it might just be that it's not that bad a disease, unless your immune response is lower due to D deficiency.
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Old 24th May 2020, 08:50 PM   #2340
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
To some extent, it has. An abstract, though, might be an okay thing to poke at to start with that.



Going further, of course, it's not so much that more is great so much as that too little is bad.
Yes, it's one of those things where you should just have enough of it. Having too little weakens your immune system. Which is probably a bad idea if you get infected with any virus, really.
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Old 24th May 2020, 09:26 PM   #2341
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I don't think it does anything to Covid, but given the fact that 80% or more people who catch Covid hardly notice it, it might just be that it's not that bad a disease, unless your immune response is lower, which can be due to D deficiency.
FTFY. A weakened immune system can happen through various routes, of course.
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Old 24th May 2020, 09:37 PM   #2342
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
FTFY.
Except you haven't fixed it at all. Did you miss the "might" in there?

It reads exactly as it's supposed to:

Quote:
...it might just be that it's not that bad a disease, unless your immune response is lower due to D deficiency.
I'm specifically saying D deficiency might be the major reason for severe disease, so your amendment makes no sense in the context I wrote it.
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Old 24th May 2020, 10:09 PM   #2343
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Here's the actual study:

The Role of Vitamin D in Suppressing Cytokine Storm in COVID-19 Patients and Associated Mortality

Findings:

Are they using general information to draw specific conclusions?

I need time to read the rest.
There's no vitamin D research here. There is inferred vitamin D deficiency because CRP (C Reactive Protein) has in the past been associated with decreased vitamin D levels. So the study looked at CRP.

Quote:
The clinical data from confirmed COVID-19 patients in China (up to 52 hospitals in 30
provinces) shows a substantially higher frequency of cases with CRP ≥ 10 mg among
patients with severe COVID-19 (81.5%, 110 cases out of 135) than patients with a mild
form of the disease (56.5%, 371 cases out of 658) [14]. The relationship between high
CRP and Vit D has been widely investigated in different clinical studies. A recent history
of CVD among COVID-19 patients has shown another important risk factor for which an
association with Vit D needs to be investigated.
This might wash as a pilot study.
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Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.

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Old 24th May 2020, 10:41 PM   #2344
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
....

I'm specifically saying D deficiency might be the major reason for severe disease, so your amendment makes no sense in the context I wrote it.
See, this is what I mean by magical cures.

If it were that simple we would know by now.
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Space Force.
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Old 24th May 2020, 10:45 PM   #2345
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
There is some evidence that it is useful for prevention/treatment of upper respiratory tract infections. The efficacy is not clear cut, but this is why there is interest in it re:COVID-19
Again, just so it is clear, a deficiency makes an individual more susceptible. But more than replacing one's deficiency does not give one a boost of their immune system.
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Old 24th May 2020, 10:49 PM   #2346
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Except you haven't fixed it at all. Did you miss the "might" in there?
No, I didn't miss the might.

If you prefer, I was specifically disagreeing that ONLY a reduced immune response because of a vitamin D deficiency would be likely to affect how how sick a person gets, rather than a reduced immune response in general.
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Old 24th May 2020, 10:50 PM   #2347
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
It's updated continuously. I visit my GP, blood test is taken, blood pressure measured, urine test if I remembered to bring a sample, and into the database it goes. The prescription medicines I use can be found there as well, along with other medical history such as accidents. It would be the same with all tests and measurements of Covid patients along with their medical history. They don't necessarily do every possible test, though. So levels of Vitamin D may not be known for a number of patients. However, you could do a search on all patients where vitamin D is mentioned.

(What researchers can't get out of the database is any particular individual's identity, at least without authorization)
Your personal medical records are not publicly available.

See my post on the actual study. They did not look at vitamin D levels, they used a substitute measure.

No one searched through all the medical records of these patients. The researchers looked at limited information on patients from all over the world.
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Old 24th May 2020, 10:53 PM   #2348
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Hard to say, to answer your first question directly. The point was more directed at the highlighted, as it was, though. Vitamin D deficiency frequently does not take place when people do not get enough sunlight, in short, given that that's not the only route to get a sufficient quantity. That doesn't change that places where more people spend more time outside in the sun are probably more likely to have less in the way of people deficient in Vitamin D, just that it throws a much harder to account for variable into the equation.
It was a general statement. You are over-thinking this.
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Old 24th May 2020, 10:56 PM   #2349
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
One of those pieces contained a note that massive doses of D to solve the deficiency didn't work, which is why NHS is recommending everyone dose daily. I imagine it must take time for the immune system to gear up with the vitamin D, so it adds up to me.
How often do you see your doctor?

Mine checks my vitamin D level at least twice a year despite the fact it has never been low.

Everyone does not need a daily dose. I'd like to see the link to the NHS advice on that. (Out of curiosity more than challenging your claim.)
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Old 24th May 2020, 11:05 PM   #2350
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Again, just so it is clear, a deficiency makes an individual more susceptible. But more than replacing one's deficiency does not give one a boost of their immune system.
Just so is is clear - neither casebro nor myself were discussing vitamin D deficiency, we were discussing its potential use as treatment for COVID-19.
Originally Posted by casebro View Post
I'm thinking of D did something great good for immune systems it would have been defined decade or two ago.

Do you think D does something particular to C19?
Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
There is some evidence that it is useful for prevention/treatment of upper respiratory tract infections. The efficacy is not clear cut, but this is why there is interest in it re:COVID-19
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Old 24th May 2020, 11:14 PM   #2351
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
Just so is is clear - neither casebro nor myself were discussing vitamin D deficiency, we were discussing its potential use as treatment for COVID-19.
That's even worse. There is zero evidence vitamin D is a beneficial treatment for COVID 19.
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Old 24th May 2020, 11:15 PM   #2352
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Your personal medical records are not publicly available.
He didn't say "public" he said researchers were able to access individual, anonymised health data.
As medical researchers can in Australia as well..
So yes, your medical records are available, anonymiseds, to medical researchers.

I suspect that the study being discussed did not have access to this fine level of health data and it is a correlation between general medical data rather than individual's medical records.
Quote:
See my post on the actual study. They did not look at vitamin D levels, they used a substitute measure.

No one searched through all the medical records of these patients. The researchers looked at limited information on patients from all over the world.
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Old 24th May 2020, 11:18 PM   #2353
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
That's even worse. There is zero evidence vitamin D is a beneficial treatment for COVID 19.
Read my post again.
Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
There is some evidence that it is useful for prevention/treatment of upper respiratory tract infections. The efficacy is not clear cut, but this is why there is interest in it re:COVID-19
There is evidence that it is useful for treating upper respiratory-tract infection and that vD deficiency has been shown to increase the risk of upper respiratory tract infections and tuberculosis.
That is why it is being investigated as potential treatment for COVID-19.
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Last edited by EHocking; 24th May 2020 at 11:21 PM. Reason: clarity
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Old 25th May 2020, 12:23 AM   #2354
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
See, this is what I mean by magical cures.

If it were that simple we would know by now.
Did you see the studies?

It appears that we do know it now. It's no surprise it's taken some time to filter through, but it reads to me that not being deficient in vitamin D is far superior to taking Remdesivir.

Nothing magical about it. All the studies I see are thoroughly scientific.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Mine checks my vitamin D level at least twice a year despite the fact it has never been low.
I noted earlier that I have annual blood tests but I've never seen any results for vitamin D on the list.
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Old 25th May 2020, 04:31 AM   #2355
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Warnings being issued about over dosing with Vitamin D

https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-...ting-covid-19/
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Old 25th May 2020, 04:43 AM   #2356
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Warnings being issued about over dosing with Vitamin D

https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-...ting-covid-19/
There's a load more information in the comments.
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Old 25th May 2020, 05:59 AM   #2357
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Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
A month ago I posted this;



Well, the results of my little “experiment” are in. At the end of one month, Florida dropped one spot to 11th, and Georgia dropped three spots to 14th.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...1ab3cd53_z.jpg

So, not what I predicted if Florida and Georgia opened “too soon”.

Thoughts...

1) Maybe a month was not long enough. We’ll see. I’ll still be looking for effects going forward, but I don’t want to be accused of goalpost moving.

2) Maybe Total Deaths wasn’t the best metric, but it was the one I chose.

3) We have to trust the statistics coming out of Georgia and Florida are accurate. There’s been some accusations of shenanigans, especially in FL, but World-o-Meter was my compilation of choice.

4) There’s a chance that the heat and humidity in the South is helping keep the spread of the virus down.

5) And, finally, there’s a chance that Kemp and Desantis were not being as reckless as some thought. And that’s a good thing, as even Joe Scarborough had to admit:

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...01990ca7_z.jpg

Back when this one month “study” started, US deaths were about 52,000. Helps put things in perspective as we hit the 100,000 mark tomorrow.
As you're tracking rankings, which states "jumped" over FL and GA is important (as are which did not).

Maryland shot up the list; what made it "worse" than FL or GA?

Ohio and Indiana came between FL and GA; what's special about them?

The recorded numbers of covid-19 deaths are the "fast" counts, as FiveThirtyEight calls them1, not the "slow" ones. Fast counts are much less accurate than slow counts; greater uncertainty, more variation across time and space, etc. So a change in rank based on a small difference is not very meaningful.

Goes without saying: each of the fifty states is unique; demographics, distribution of population (cites, towns, farms ...; urban densities; ...), health care capabilities, ... And proximity to, or number of, "hotspots". CT, for example, has a relatively small population, and no big dense cities, but is very hard hit; mostly due to its proximity to NYC (all that communting on packed rail cars?).

1The Uncounted Dead
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Old 25th May 2020, 07:56 AM   #2358
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Stats question- Between nasals and serology guesstimates, an we extrapolate how many people in America have Covid RIGHT NOW?

Should we use NY, or use a state that has the mean population density?
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Old 25th May 2020, 07:59 AM   #2359
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Stats question- Between nasals and serology guesstimates, an we extrapolate how many people in America have Covid RIGHT NOW?

Should we use NY, or use a state that has the mean population density?
Given how unreliable many of the serology tests are we can extrapolate nothing until we have some stats how many of each kind of blood test was used and what their accuracy is.
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Old 25th May 2020, 08:00 AM   #2360
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Stats question- Between nasals and serology guesstimates, an we extrapolate how many people in America have Covid RIGHT NOW?

Should we use NY, or use a state that has the mean population density?
Certainly not NY, that one is quite of the chart. I'd say take US numbers as a whole, guesstimate how many unrecognized cases there is, and there you go. I'd say 5x official cases wouldn't be far off.
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