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Old 6th January 2017, 07:40 PM   #161
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
That is interesting, especially since the only known 2 factories are overseas. One in Japan and the other in the Netherlands.....

It's just not possible with most automotive and support industries. There are too many processes that still require humans.
Chris B.
How many more or fewer humans did they used to require in automotive per automobile? I see lots of words, facts please
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Old 6th January 2017, 07:41 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
So what do you say is exactly the average replacement rate, using actual statistics?
I don't say. I can only speak to my experience with automation at the factories I have worked as a younger man.

Originally Posted by Resume View Post
Please don't speak of which you do not know. I've implemented automation. It eliminated jobs. That was the point. As a matter of fact, I turned so many of my departments into near auto-piloting, the company felt confident enough to lay me off.
Ah, you see I only speak of what I do know. Of course in many cases here, that is twisted into something else.

So you were replaced by a robot that implements automation? Or likely you were hired to implement automation and then released when the job was completed.

According to you guys automation is the major cause of job loss within the US. I don't think so. The automation argument is just a deflection away from losing factories overseas and to Mexico due to benefit from the lower wage requirements there.
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Old 6th January 2017, 07:48 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Ah, you see I only speak of what I do know. Of course in many cases here, that is twisted into something else.
I speak of 30 years experience in managing operations.

Quote:
So you were replaced by a robot that implements automation?
No.
Quote:
Or likely you were hired to implement automation and then released when the job was completed.
No, you do not know what you're talking about.

Quote:
According to you guys automation is the major cause of job loss within the US. I don't think so. The automation argument is just a deflection away from losing factories overseas and to Mexico due to benefit from the lower wage requirements there.
Chris B.
Labor costs are nearly the only expense you can control. If you automation cost can be recovered in a reasonable timeframe, that's what you do. Automation always results in job elimination; it's why you do it.
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Old 6th January 2017, 08:03 PM   #164
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Originally Posted by Resume View Post
I speak of 30 years experience in managing operations.


No.

No, you do not know what you're talking about.


Labor costs are nearly the only expense you can control. If you automation cost can be recovered in a reasonable timeframe, that's what you do. Automation always results in job elimination; it's why you do it.
I was guessing, not professing knowledge of your personal job loss.

Labor costs have been the determining factor in US job loss. The elimination of import tariffs made it absolutely viable to relocate factories outside the US.

If automation was the major factor to job loss, there would be no need to relocate the factory outside the US.
Chris B.
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Old 6th January 2017, 08:23 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
If automation was the major factor to job loss, there would be no need to relocate the factory outside the US.
Chris B.
You have no idea. Moving operations overseas is a huge capital expenditure, mainly practical for only large corporations, or cash-rich operations. The small to medium companies that employ the majority simply do not have that option available. The mantra is cost-control and the best way to do that is to eliminate waste and unnecessary expenses. Labor reduction is a key control. This is accomplished through careful hiring and judicious temporary help expenditures. Next is eliminating steps and movement and this is often achieved through robotics and automations. These eliminate jobs. Is it the biggest factor? No, that's just simply declining business, but it is a major factor, sorry.
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Old 6th January 2017, 09:20 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
I don't say. I can only speak to my experience with automation at the factories I have worked as a younger man.



Ah, you see I only speak of what I do know. Of course in many cases here, that is twisted into something else.

So you were replaced by a robot that implements automation? Or likely you were hired to implement automation and then released when the job was completed.

According to you guys automation is the major cause of job loss within the US. I don't think so. The automation argument is just a deflection away from losing factories overseas and to Mexico due to benefit from the lower wage requirements there.
Chris B.
I can speak of my 10 years experience as an automation engineer, then 12 more years in business automation. I worked to replace people with automation in a factory. I now work in a group that automates business processes. My company creates chemicals, plus automated chemical delivery systems.
All this automation increases productivity. Quite often, people get replaced. Maintaining automation does not use as many people in general, as the people that were needed to make things without automation.

There's more counter-anecdotes for you.

In any case, the skills are replaced, and the people need to retrain for other roles to keep employed. Generally, higher skilled roles, which speaks to the need for better STEM education.
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Old 7th January 2017, 01:33 AM   #167
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If we're swapping anecdotes...

I worked in IT all through my working life, mostly in factories.

In one case - the factory had around 1,100 workers when I started with them. 10 years later, with extensive automation there were around 300 remaining. and - they were producing more that the 1,100...
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Old 7th January 2017, 01:54 AM   #168
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
That is interesting, especially since the only known 2 factories are overseas. One in Japan and the other in the Netherlands.....

It's just not possible with most automotive and support industries. There are too many processes that still require humans.
Chris B.
Yes, they require humans but nothing like the same number of humans.

In 2008 there are around 180,000 people employed in vehicle manufacturing in the UK and between them they produced about 1.7 million passenger and commercial vehicles.

In the 1950s approximately the same number of vehicles were produced with over 1 million people employed.
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Old 7th January 2017, 02:00 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
I was guessing, not professing knowledge of your personal job loss.

Labor costs have been the determining factor in US job loss. The elimination of import tariffs made it absolutely viable to relocate factories outside the US.

If automation was the major factor to job loss, there would be no need to relocate the factory outside the US.
Chris B.
Of course there would be. If you can half manpower costs by automating half the jobs, you can cut them by a further 25% by relocating production to somewhere where the labour costs are half of what they currently are - all
other things being equal.

If you impose import tariffs, things will get more expensive for US consumers and protectionism in the home market will encourage lack of efficiency which will make US goods (even) less competitive overseas - sounds like a lose-lose to me.
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Old 7th January 2017, 03:56 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Of course there would be. If you can half manpower costs by automating half the jobs, you can cut them by a further 25% by relocating production to somewhere where the labour costs are half of what they currently are - all
other things being equal.

If you impose import tariffs, things will get more expensive for US consumers and protectionism in the home market will encourage lack of efficiency which will make US goods (even) less competitive overseas - sounds like a lose-lose to me.
Since the signing of NAFTA the US has lost about 70,000 factories that were moved to overseas and Mexico locations. Automation had nothing to do with it.

70,000 factories, that's quite a redistribution of labor.

Certainly this has been a blessing to others. It will be interesting to see what Trump will do to address this. He has proposed taxing companies with a 35% import tax on products brought back into the US if they relocate outside the US. I think that's a good start personally. There's nothing more disappointing than buying an American product with a "Made in China" label on the back.

I'd rather see a Pre-NAFTA US again. We were doing just fine before that little piece of wealth redistribution paperwork was signed into existence. NAFTA was a mistake and Trump knows it. Thank goodness.

You'll have to excuse me if I don't show enough concern for the rest of the World's working class. I'm of the opinion one should get his own house in order before helping his neighbor.
Chris B.
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Old 7th January 2017, 04:05 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by Resume View Post
You have no idea. Moving operations overseas is a huge capital expenditure, mainly practical for only large corporations, or cash-rich operations. The small to medium companies that employ the majority simply do not have that option available. The mantra is cost-control and the best way to do that is to eliminate waste and unnecessary expenses. Labor reduction is a key control. This is accomplished through careful hiring and judicious temporary help expenditures. Next is eliminating steps and movement and this is often achieved through robotics and automations. These eliminate jobs. Is it the biggest factor? No, that's just simply declining business, but it is a major factor, sorry.
Around 70,000 factories moved either to Mexico or overseas. NAFTA has been the deciding factor of US job loss. Certainly there were some jobs lost due to automation, but not 70,000 factories worth. We can thank Bill Clinton for those lost jobs. Let's rid ourselves of NAFTA and see what happens. The US was doing just fine prior to it. Chris B.
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Old 7th January 2017, 04:26 AM   #172
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Around 70,000 factories moved either to Mexico or overseas. NAFTA has been the deciding factor of US job loss. Certainly there were some jobs lost due to automation, but not 70,000 factories worth. We can thank Bill Clinton for those lost jobs. Let's rid ourselves of NAFTA and see what happens. The US was doing just fine prior to it. Chris B.
And US manufacturing was doing just fine after it:

https://rejblog.com/2011/10/21/dispe...manufacturing/

Quote:
Production in the manufacturing sector has increased an average of 3.1 percent annually for the past 63 years, with a majority of the production jumps beginning in the late 1970s. This can be attributed to continued strides in automation. In 1950 it took 1,000 workers to do what 177 do today.
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Old 7th January 2017, 08:28 AM   #173
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Since the signing of NAFTA the US has lost about 70,000 factories that were moved to overseas and Mexico locations. Automation had nothing to do with it.
Any evidence to support this claim ?

There underlying data seems to be from an assessment of the number of "manufacturing establishments" which were in the US in 1993 and comparing that to the number of "manufacturing establishments" in 2012.

The term "manufacturing establishments" is very broad and would include someone making furniture in their shed, someone making jewelry in their garage, a one-person fabrication business and so on. The phrase "70,000" factories conjours up images of large buildings employing tens, hundreds or thousands of people - that simply isn't the case.

To claim that those factories have moved overseas due to NAFTA ignores a number of very pertinent points.
  • A number of smaller "manufacturing establishments" may have been consolidated
  • The "manufacturing establishments" could have shut down without the jobs moving overseas (like when Saturn stopped making cars)
  • There has been a major recession, the "manufacturing establishments" may simply have shut down
  • The manufacturing could have been offshored to a non-NAFTA country
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Old 7th January 2017, 03:44 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Any evidence to support this claim ?

There underlying data seems to be from an assessment of the number of "manufacturing establishments" which were in the US in 1993 and comparing that to the number of "manufacturing establishments" in 2012.

The term "manufacturing establishments" is very broad and would include someone making furniture in their shed, someone making jewelry in their garage, a one-person fabrication business and so on. The phrase "70,000" factories conjours up images of large buildings employing tens, hundreds or thousands of people - that simply isn't the case.

To claim that those factories have moved overseas due to NAFTA ignores a number of very pertinent points.
  • A number of smaller "manufacturing establishments" may have been consolidated
  • The "manufacturing establishments" could have shut down without the jobs moving overseas (like when Saturn stopped making cars)
  • There has been a major recession, the "manufacturing establishments" may simply have shut down
  • The manufacturing could have been offshored to a non-NAFTA country
Yes, those numbers are a broad generalization.
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact...000-factories/

Quote:
Schultz said that more than 50,000 manufacturing factories were lost due to trade deals. His numbers are up for some interpretation, depending on how you factor in the most recent recession.

The recession itself exposes a flaw in Schultzís math in that he blames trade deals for almost all of the decline in factories. But there is no question that worldwide economic events played the dominant role after 2008. Changes of technology also have played a role. This statement is partially accurate but leaves out many important details. We rate it Half True.
I fear we will be subject to much Trumponomics the next 4 years, much of it half true, some if it just pulled out of his ass.
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Old 8th January 2017, 07:00 AM   #175
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY
...There's nothing more disappointing than buying an American product with a "Made in China" label on the back... I'm of the opinion one should get his own house in order before helping his neighbor.
Does this mean Mr. Trump will stop making his stuff in other countries like China?
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Old 8th January 2017, 07:08 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by sts60 View Post
Does this mean Mr. Trump will stop making his stuff in other countries like China?
Not being a consumer of Trump tat maybe can someone tell me what Trump stuff is made outwith the US?

If there's some Trump Tower snow domes I might snap one up
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Old 8th January 2017, 07:34 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Around 70,000 factories moved either to Mexico or overseas. NAFTA has been the deciding factor of US job loss. Certainly there were some jobs lost due to automation, but not 70,000 factories worth. We can thank Bill Clinton for those lost jobs. Let's rid ourselves of NAFTA and see what happens. The US was doing just fine prior to it. Chris B.
Just fine? Things cost me more. There were 100 million human beings I wasn't allowed to trade with under fair terms because a party with no right to my money intervened.

The US is not an entity that can be "fine". It is not an emotional, living thing.
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Old 8th January 2017, 07:39 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
The US is not an entity that can be "fine". It is not an emotional, living thing.
What a strange argument. By that reasoning, when asked about how the water in a swimming pool is, one should never reply, "Fine."
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Old 8th January 2017, 07:55 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
What a strange argument. By that reasoning, when asked about how the water in a swimming pool is, one should never reply, "Fine."
To the extent the water in the pool is homogeneous, that works. Citizens are not homogeneous.
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Old 8th January 2017, 08:08 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
To the extent the water in the pool is homogeneous, that works. Citizens are not homogeneous.
A moment ago, you said "fine" can only be used to describe living things. Now it's homogeneous things.

"How's your dinner (of meat, potato and a vegetable)?"

"Fine, thanks."

Honestly, you ought to drop this utterly spurious line of (to be charitable) thought.
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Old 8th January 2017, 08:14 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
A moment ago, you said "fine" can only be used to describe living things. Now it's homogeneous things.

"How's your dinner (of meat, potato and a vegetable)?"

"Fine, thanks."

Honestly, you ought to drop this utterly spurious line of (to be charitable) thought.
You are taking a very literalist reading of what I wrote. I thought it was in line with the common criticism of viewing a nation as having a collective identity. I will try not to write that way next time.
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Old 8th January 2017, 09:33 AM   #182
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I'm amazed that anyone bought into the 'draining the swamp' scam. Of all of the possible candidates Trump is the least likely to do so. He has a history of using legal mechanisms to avoid paying creditors, including the IRS. Why would anyone thing he has any interest in reducing corruption rather than milking it?

If he was sincere he would have cut himself off from any of his businesses, there would be no use of Trump Tower as a presidential retreat, and he would have looked for a cabinet of reformers, Instead he has decided to place himself in a building that is difficult to secure, and has limited ability to extract him in the event of a crisis. He has maintained his control over businesses that have already caused a conflict of interest (i.e. putting up visiting dignitaries in Trump owned hotels). The cabinet he has chosen is full of major industry lobbyists and suck up artists to countries such as Russia. This next four years is likely to be painful!
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Old 8th January 2017, 09:39 AM   #183
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> Promises to drain a swamp
> Comes across Shrek


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Old 8th January 2017, 09:53 AM   #184
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Originally Posted by David RP View Post
Not being a consumer of Trump tat maybe can someone tell me what Trump stuff is made outwith the US?

If there's some Trump Tower snow domes I might snap one up
Well, the steel in his buildings for a start but also the Donald J Trump Signature Clothing and Accessories Collection

Or the Trump Home Collection

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Old 8th January 2017, 08:42 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by Mikemcc View Post
I'm amazed that anyone bought into the 'draining the swamp' scam.
The pitiful thing is that Trump bragged at one of his "thank you" rallies about how draining the swamp was just a slogan to get elected yet his supporters still believe Trump is going to do it. Against all evidence, Trump supporters think that Trump is going to have an honest, corrupt-less administration.
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Old 9th January 2017, 12:28 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Just fine? Things cost me more. There were 100 million human beings I wasn't allowed to trade with under fair terms because a party with no right to my money intervened.

The US is not an entity that can be "fine". It is not an emotional, living thing.
Things cost more now. Checked on the prices of new cars lately? Have they gotten cheaper since NAFTA was created? Of course not. The only things you're getting cheaper is the cheap junk made in China and sold at Wally World.

Those Chinese solar panels certainly aren't cheap now. This was Obama's doing. Free trade all of a sudden wasn't free regarding solar panels under Obama. But I thought Liberals liked the market and free Global trade? You see how that works. Even they can see the difference when they're interests are the concern. Obama bailed out solar companies in the US and made Chinese solar more expensive by adding import taxes on it. Damn the free trade? Sounds like a good start to me, and Obama kicked it off. Even he knows NAFTA kills US businesses.

So I guess what I'm saying is if Liberals like the free trade under NAFTA and it is working so well for the US, why did they change the game on solar panels? Chris B.
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Old 9th January 2017, 12:42 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Things cost more now. Checked on the prices of new cars lately? Have they gotten cheaper since NAFTA was created? Of course not. The only things you're getting cheaper is the cheap junk made in China and sold at Wally World. .
Yes, new cars are about 10% cheaper, in inflation adjusted terms, since NAFTA came in. Not only that but cars these days are far better specified than they were back then and far better made.

http://wgntv.com/2016/04/25/the-aver...you-were-born/
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Old 9th January 2017, 12:59 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Things cost more now. Checked on the prices of new cars lately? Have they gotten cheaper since NAFTA was created? Of course not. The only things you're getting cheaper is the cheap junk made in China and sold at Wally World.

Those Chinese solar panels certainly aren't cheap now. This was Obama's doing. Free trade all of a sudden wasn't free regarding solar panels under Obama. But I thought Liberals liked the market and free Global trade? You see how that works. Even they can see the difference when they're interests are the concern. Obama bailed out solar companies in the US and made Chinese solar more expensive by adding import taxes on it. Damn the free trade? Sounds like a good start to me, and Obama kicked it off. Even he knows NAFTA kills US businesses.

So I guess what I'm saying is if Liberals like the free trade under NAFTA and it is working so well for the US, why did they change the game on solar panels? Chris B.
Reality check: Free trade is one of the pillars of Reagan-style neoliberalism, and one that carried over to Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama. And guess what: this Republican Congress is not going to reverse course on that, regardless of DJT's promises. Instead, they're gonna shove prescription strength neoliberalism down our throats: privatization, deregulation, tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, and austerity for social programs but huge deficit spending for the military. Another generation of greed and increasing wealth disparity -- or as Republicans call it "Great Again."
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Old 9th January 2017, 01:05 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yes, new cars are about 10% cheaper, in inflation adjusted terms, since NAFTA came in. Not only that but cars these days are far better specified than they were back then and far better made.

http://wgntv.com/2016/04/25/the-aver...you-were-born/
Inflation does not work the same way for paychecks. Just because somebody's money is worth less now than the year before, does not mean their boss increases their wages to compensate. The same guy that made $16 an hour last year is still making $16 an hour this year. Though many have taken pay cuts and may actually be bringing home less than they did previously.

I realize the favorite argument is to say due to inflation or in 2016 dollars,,,etc. But the fancy math doesn't impress me. I'm more into reality. If someone had a job paying $15 an hour when cars were $10K, chances are if they're still in the same job they're not making $45 an hour now even though cars cost $30K+...........This is the reality.

A factory job paying $13 an hour was fine in 1978 when a new car was $6K out the door. The same job paying $16 or $18 an hour now does not cut it when cars are $30K........Inflation would be great if paychecks rose at the same rate or higher, but in reality, they don't keep up with it.
Chris B.
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Old 9th January 2017, 01:11 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Reality check: Free trade is one of the pillars of Reagan-style neoliberalism, and one that carried over to Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama. And guess what: this Republican Congress is not going to reverse course on that, regardless of DJT's promises. Instead, they're gonna shove prescription strength neoliberalism down our throats: privatization, deregulation, tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, and austerity for social programs but huge deficit spending for the military. Another generation of greed and increasing wealth disparity -- or as Republicans call it "Great Again."
The thing is American manufacturing has gone down hill since the implementation of NAFTA. It's a fact. It's been a steady decline and one can see the starting point and trace it directly back to NAFTA. Something has to be done soon because this deal had been a sour one for the US. The sooner NAFTA is kicked to the curb, the better. What's the worst thing that can happen? US jobs and manufacturing will decline? We have nothing to lose.
Chris B.
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Old 9th January 2017, 01:15 AM   #191
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Nope.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-...des-2016-03-28
Quote:
Surprising Fact No. 2: Manufacturing output is a near a record high.

Technology and new ways of organizing work have revolutionized the American factory since the Golden Age of the 1980s. Today, U.S. factories produce twice as much stuff as they did in 1984, but with one-third fewer workers.
Of course the one-third fewer workers is a problem, but the efficiencies due to automation aren't going away.
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Old 9th January 2017, 01:32 AM   #192
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LOL according to you guys there is no problem with US manufacturing........I think you've been had.

Even Obama knows NAFTA kills US manufacturing. Why else did he target Chinese solar companies with import tariffs? I'll tell you why, because NAFTA killed his pet solar projects and green energy US jobs, that's why. You see it's ok to kill all the other manufacturing jobs and send those overseas, but when it interferes with Obama's plan for the US to create jobs manufacturing green energy products, then it's not ok. Someone needs to make up their mind.
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Old 9th January 2017, 01:37 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
LOL according to you guys there is no problem with US manufacturing........I think you've been had.
Right back at you.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst.../#306dd7646e2c
Quote:
Which brings us to the larger picture. We're coming out of a very nasty indeed recession and manufacturing output swings down more in recession than the general economy. So, since 2008 factory production has fallen and then risen again. And just over these past couple of quarters it has just again reached an all time peak:
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Old 9th January 2017, 02:31 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Inflation does not work the same way for paychecks. Just because somebody's money is worth less now than the year before, does not mean their boss increases their wages to compensate. The same guy that made $16 an hour last year is still making $16 an hour this year. Though many have taken pay cuts and may actually be bringing home less than they did previously.

I realize the favorite argument is to say due to inflation or in 2016 dollars,,,etc. But the fancy math doesn't impress me. I'm more into reality. If someone had a job paying $15 an hour when cars were $10K, chances are if they're still in the same job they're not making $45 an hour now even though cars cost $30K+...........This is the reality.

A factory job paying $13 an hour was fine in 1978 when a new car was $6K out the door. The same job paying $16 or $18 an hour now does not cut it when cars are $30K........Inflation would be great if paychecks rose at the same rate or higher, but in reality, they don't keep up with it.
Chris B.
It's not surprising that none of this impresses you - you've decided on a position, that "people" are far worse off as a result of NAFTA and nothing will shake you from that view.

I'm looking at the facts, you on the other hand have constructed a fantasy in which cars in 1993 cost $10k (Mrs Don bought a nearly new Pontiac Le Mans in 1988 for $8k so some cars were available at $10k but that wasn't the typical price for a car at the time) and in which wages have stayed stationary for 25 years. No doubt there are some people who have gone from a well-paid unionised unskilled or semi-skilled job to a minimum wage job in that time but for the economy at large, household income has increased 15% since 1993 in inflation adjusted dollars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Househ..._thru_2014.png

For "ordinary people" - production and non-supervisory workers wages have dropped in real terms since the 1970's but interestingly have increased significantly since the early 1990s, when NAFTA came into force.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Househ..._1964-2014.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Househ..._United_States
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Old 9th January 2017, 02:34 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by Resume View Post

Oh I'm certain there are many out there that view our current economic situation thru rose colored glasses. However I'm a realist and what concerns me is that 9% of the work force number or the previous decline in work force numbers the writer fails to mention. Remember our population increases each year, it doesn't decrease.
Chris B.
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Old 9th January 2017, 02:45 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Oh I'm certain there are many out there that view our current economic situation thru rose colored glasses. However I'm a realist and what concerns me is that 9% of the work force number or the previous decline in work force numbers the writer fails to mention. Remember our population increases each year, it doesn't decrease.
Chris B.
No-one (AFAIK) is claiming that the number of people employed in manufacturing has risen - indeed they are arguing the opposite, that as a result of automation and other efficiency improvements, the same amount of "stuff" is produced by far fewer people.

If you "repatriate" all the manufacturing "lost" as a result of NAFTA and other trade deals, you won't end up with anything like the same number of people employed in manufacturing. OTOH what you will end up with is more expensive "stuff" which will financially hurt the home market and less competitive stuff to sell abroad (because wages will have to go up because "stuff" is more expensive) which will damage US manufacturing.
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Old 9th January 2017, 02:57 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It's not surprising that none of this impresses you - you've decided on a position, that "people" are far worse off as a result of NAFTA and nothing will shake you from that view.

I'm looking at the facts, you on the other hand have constructed a fantasy in which cars in 1993 cost $10k (Mrs Don bought a nearly new Pontiac Le Mans in 1988 for $8k so some cars were available at $10k but that wasn't the typical price for a car at the time) and in which wages have stayed stationary for 25 years. No doubt there are some people who have gone from a well-paid unionised unskilled or semi-skilled job to a minimum wage job in that time but for the economy at large, household income has increased 15% since 1993 in inflation adjusted dollars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Househ..._thru_2014.png

For "ordinary people" - production and non-supervisory workers wages have dropped in real terms since the 1970's but interestingly have increased significantly since the early 1990s, when NAFTA came into force.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Househ..._1964-2014.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Househ..._United_States
I've experienced the effects of NAFTA several times. Of course I'm no longer a young man working my way thru school, but when I was:

1. I was laid off from Sumitomo Electric in Edmonton KY, they closed and relocated to Juraz Mexico.

2. I was laid off from SKF USA which was sold to Tyson Bearing company in Glasgow KY, they changed the name to cheat everyone out of their retirement benefits and closed down. They relocated to India. Ironically, the Indian made bearings are still stamped SKF-USA.

3. I noticed Dana axle is closing in Glasgow KY now. It was formerly ETN axle division and I did work there briefly in the 90's. My Dad retired from that place as has many of my extended family. They're closing by June 2017 and moving to Mexico......

This is just 3 companies that personally affected my family and myself at one point in time. I no longer have to worry about factory work, but I did my share to get me through school. All closures and moves were made possible by NAFTA. I do speak from experience.

Chris B.
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Old 9th January 2017, 03:03 AM   #198
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
I've experienced the effects of NAFTA several times. Of course I'm no longer a young man working my way thru school, but when I was:

1. I was laid off from Sumitomo Electric in Edmonton KY, they closed and relocated to Juraz Mexico.

2. I was laid off from SKF USA which was sold to Tyson Bearing company in Glasgow KY, they changed the name to cheat everyone out of their retirement benefits and closed down. They relocated to India. Ironically, the Indian made bearings are still stamped SKF-USA.

3. I noticed Dana axle is closing in Glasgow KY now. It was formerly ETN axle division and I did work there briefly in the 90's. My Dad retired from that place as has many of my extended family. They're closing by June 2017 and moving to Mexico......

This is just 3 companies that personally affected my family and myself at one point in time. I no longer have to worry about factory work, but I did my share to get me through school. All closures and moves were made possible by NAFTA. I do speak from experience.

Chris B.
"Foreman says these jobs are goin' boys, and they ain't comin' back . . ."

If you think Trump is going to get them back in any significant number, you're wearing those rose-colored glasses.
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Old 9th January 2017, 03:06 AM   #199
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Originally Posted by Resume View Post
"Foreman says these jobs are goin' boys, and they ain't comin' back . . ."

If you think Trump is going to get them back in any significant number, you're wearing those rose-colored glasses.
I think Trump is off to a good start. He may not turn it around but it seems there may be a few companies that take his lead seriously. Chris B.
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Old 9th January 2017, 03:10 AM   #200
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
I've experienced the effects of NAFTA several times. Of course I'm no longer a young man working my way thru school, but when I was:

1. I was laid off from Sumitomo Electric in Edmonton KY, they closed and relocated to Juraz Mexico.

2. I was laid off from SKF USA which was sold to Tyson Bearing company in Glasgow KY, they changed the name to cheat everyone out of their retirement benefits and closed down. They relocated to India. Ironically, the Indian made bearings are still stamped SKF-USA.

3. I noticed Dana axle is closing in Glasgow KY now. It was formerly ETN axle division and I did work there briefly in the 90's. My Dad retired from that place as has many of my extended family. They're closing by June 2017 and moving to Mexico......

This is just 3 companies that personally affected my family and myself at one point in time. I no longer have to worry about factory work, but I did my share to get me through school. All closures and moves were made possible by NAFTA. I do speak from experience.

Chris B.
Re: item 2 - if it relocated to India, NAFTA wasn't to blame

No-one has ever claimed that no manufacturing was ever moved as a result of NAFTA but:
  • Right now the U.S. is manufacturing more than when NAFTA came into force. Yes, with fewer people but that's a result of automation
  • Even if all the manufacturing which was offshored was returned to the U.S., there'd be many fewer jobs than before due to automation
  • The abandonment of NAFTA would have a negative effect in terms of much higher prices
  • Without NAFTA, those U.S. manufacturers who are doing well (and because manufacturing is up there must be a lot of them) would have a much smaller market to sell to, being resticted to the U.S. domestic market

Remember this strand of the thread is all about Trump claiming that if the U.S. abandons NAFTA, the manufacturing jobs that were "lost" overseas will all return to the U.S.. This is nonsense.

btw, are you still standing by your claim that introducing automation to a factory increases employment threefold or have you though about that a little more ?


edited to add....

Also, do you ever bother to address the point being discussed ? Your response to my data which clearly showed that wages are rising in real terms - contrary to your unsupported claim that they weren't - was a series of anecdotes about plant closures....

Last edited by The Don; 9th January 2017 at 03:13 AM.
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