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Old 10th April 2019, 03:26 AM   #1
JoeMorgue
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The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate

From the New York Times

Quote:
Today’s Democratic Party is increasingly perceived as dominated by its “woke” left wing. But the views of Democrats on social media often bear little resemblance to those of the wider Democratic electorate.

...

In reality, the Democratic electorate is both ideologically and demographically diverse. Over all, around half of Democratic-leaning voters consider themselves “moderate” or “conservative,” not liberal. Around 40 percent are not white.
Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...real-life.html
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Old 10th April 2019, 04:07 AM   #2
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Well, yeah. Nothing on Twitter or social media necessarily reflects reality.
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Old 10th April 2019, 04:33 AM   #3
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If you don't make your voice heard or even worse, don't vote, you might as well not exist as a political constituency.
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Old 10th April 2019, 04:59 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
If you don't make your voice heard or even worse, don't vote, you might as well not exist as a political constituency.
No if you don't vote you might as well not exist as a political constituency, regardless of how vocal you are.
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Old 10th April 2019, 05:17 AM   #5
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Not voting is sometimes an excellent way to make your voice heard about your opinion on the state of politics
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Old 10th April 2019, 05:19 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
If you don't make your voice heard or even worse, don't vote, you might as well not exist as a political constituency.
You could probably break it down into three groups, broadly:

Total apathy: Don't vote, dont engage on social media. These people are worthless, as you say.

Unenthusiastic voters Vote, but don't live and breath politics. Not on twitter or /the_donald. There are lots of these

Megacheerleaders Vote, very active on political internet enforcing ideological purity. These people are the most visible, regardless of their actual numbers.

I think it is fair to say a party should be mindful that the last group isn't representative of the voting public at large. This is tricky given that voter engagement is poor at best, especially when it comes to primaries. The worse voter turnout is, the more influence the loons have, because they always show up.
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Old 10th April 2019, 05:21 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Not voting is sometimes an excellent way to make your voice heard about your opinion on the state of politics
Hahahahah... hahahaha...haaahaaaahhhaaaahhaaaaa... *stops to catch breath*... hah.... hahahhhaaa..... haahhha.... *starts turning red....* hahha..... hahhaaa....
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Old 10th April 2019, 10:47 AM   #8
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Most of those voters may have largely grown up in an era where socialism was a curse word and now anything left of center-left is taboo for them.

Republicans and some established Democrats have done a fine job playing up fears of a "far left" takeover of the government. And I think this only reinforces that political taboo.

Also perhaps the adage that the solution is "somewhere down the middle", even during these times when we can't find the middle where it's supposed to be.

Shame.
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Old 10th April 2019, 10:49 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Most of those voters may have largely grown up in an era where socialism was a curse word and now anything left of center-left is taboo for them.

Republicans and some established Democrats have done a fine job playing up fears of a "far left" takeover of the government. And I think this only reinforces that political taboo.

Also perhaps the adage that the solution is "somewhere down the middle", even during these times when we can't find the middle where it's supposed to be.

Shame.
Everybody is an idiot except for people on the left.
Keep that attitude and you will give relection to Trump on a silver platter.
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Old 10th April 2019, 10:49 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
You could probably break it down into three groups, broadly:

Total apathy: Don't vote, dont engage on social media. These people are worthless, as you say.
Nobody said they are worthless.
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Old 10th April 2019, 10:50 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Everybody is an idiot except for people on the left.
Keep that attitude and you will give relection to Trump on a silver platter.
How would that work?
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Old 10th April 2019, 10:50 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Most of those voters may have largely grown up in an era where socialism was a curse word and now anything left of center-left is taboo for them.

Republicans and some established Democrats have done a fine job playing up fears of a "far left" takeover of the government. And I think this only reinforces that political taboo.

Also perhaps the adage that the solution is "somewhere down the middle", even during these times when we can't find the middle where it's supposed to be.

Shame.
Go... out... side.
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Old 10th April 2019, 10:52 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Well, yeah. Nothing on Twitter or social media necessarily reflects reality.
I mean, yeah. And the fact that people who discuss politics on social media are more politically active than people who aren't is also no shock - as well as being more likely to protest. Politically active people are...politically active. I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if the same were true of republicans.

In any case, it's likely better to poll people on actual issues, rather than simply asking whether they consider themselves "liberal", "moderate", or "conservative". Many media figures, as well, as politicians, think that Americans are far more conservative on issues than they actually are.
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Old 10th April 2019, 10:57 AM   #14
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We need to maintain a very clear distinction between "Politically Loud" and "Politically Active."

Voting and things directly, like no more then 1 step removed, from that are the only "Politically Active" thing that matters. Everything else is just noise. Useless at best, counter productive at worst.

Getting young and passionate people out to march and protest and share stuff on Twitter and Facebook is easy. Getting them out to vote is damn near impossible.
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Old 10th April 2019, 11:03 AM   #15
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I vote but I don't do 'social media'. Even if I did 'social media' I wouldn't talk politics on it. I'm middle class and middle aged. I don't feel a need to tell the world what my opinions are on anything. Except for the She-Ra cartoon, whose second season lands this month. Glimmer needs a kick in the butt. #FriendzoneGlimmer
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Old 10th April 2019, 11:21 AM   #16
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And maybe the Republicans on Twitter might not be representative of regular Republicans?

Don't tell Travis.
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Old 10th April 2019, 01:11 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
We need to maintain a very clear distinction between "Politically Loud" and "Politically Active."

Voting and things directly, like no more then 1 step removed, from that are the only "Politically Active" thing that matters. Everything else is just noise. Useless at best, counter productive at worst.

Getting young and passionate people out to march and protest and share stuff on Twitter and Facebook is easy. Getting them out to vote is damn near impossible.
In my experience - and this is mostly on so-called "black Twitter", so take that for what it is...

The guys that blather on about how they don't vote and they won't sign on to this corrupt system and blah blah...also refuse to get involved in any sort of protest, or even volunteer at any sort of charity. The sort of person that think that not participating in any way somehow puts them above it all.
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Old 10th April 2019, 04:16 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Everybody is an idiot except for people on the left.
Keep that attitude and you will give relection to Trump on a silver platter.
Progressives are idiots and everyone else is tolerable enough to take seriously.

That's been the entrenched attitude for the past 20 years, maybe more.
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Old 10th April 2019, 04:21 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Go... out... side.
You've confused me with some other guy.
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Old 10th April 2019, 05:53 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate
And?

The vast majority of voters are true partisans - they vote for the same party no matter what. These people aren't swayed by what they see on Twitter or anywhere else. So while they might be the 'actual electorate' they are irrelevant. The only voters that matter are those who are influenced by social and other media.

The last presidential election was won by negative 2868686 votes. It only took a few thousand swing voters in critical areas to make those 2.8 million 'popular' votes irrelevant.

Swing Voters are Extremely Real
Quote:
There aren’t that many of them, but they matter a lot...

The 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study conducted a large sample poll and found that 6.7 million Trump voters said they voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and 2.7 million Clinton voters said they voted for Mitt Romney in 2016. In other words, about 11 percent of Trump voters say they were Obama voters four years earlier and about 4 percent of Clinton voters say they were Romney voters four years earlier.

...if you’re trying to understand the psychology of the typical Trump voter, then that person is a committed partisan Republican who also voted for Mitt Romney. But it’s not literally true that 10 percent is “nobody.” Indeed, in an era of close elections, it’s the difference between winning and losing.

The geography of swing voting is important

The switchers are also important because they are not evenly distributed around the country. Obama lost whites with no college degree by a very large margin in 2012, but Clinton did even worse — especially losing the support of the kind of Northern, relatively secular noncollege whites who had not already defected from the GOP. This kind of vote is disproportionately common in the three crucial swing states that delivered Trump his Electoral College victory.

...if every single one of the Romney-Clinton switchers had been a Latino living in Florida or Arizona and repulsed by Trump’s racism, then Clinton would have carried those states and won the Electoral College.

But they didn’t. Instead, Romney-Clinton voters appear to have been concentrated in upscale suburbs of the nation’s largest cities, and a quirk of history is that at the moment, all of the country’s largest cities are in states that are either solidly blue (California, New York, Illinois) or solidly red (Texas).
It may be hard to believe, but the fact is that in our political system the 'actual' democratic electorate is irrelevant. The Russians know this. Trump knows this. And they both know that Twitter is a powerful force because it doesn't uselessly target the Actual Democratic Electorate.
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Old 11th April 2019, 04:03 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Hahahahah... hahahaha...haaahaaaahhhaaaahhaaaaa... *stops to catch breath*... hah.... hahahhhaaa..... haahhha.... *starts turning red....* hahha..... hahhaaa....
I can't believe I'm semi-defending applecorped here, but it is not uncommon for minority groups in many nations to publicly boycott an election. I've never understood the wisdom of that move, but it's obvious that what applecorped said is fairly common view in certain circumstances.
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Old 11th April 2019, 04:08 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
The last presidential election was won by negative 2868686 votes.
Really? That would be a nice, beautiful pattern. I almost expected to see 2868686.868686...
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Old 11th April 2019, 06:31 AM   #23
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Quote:
The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate
Neither is the Democratic Electorate on the New York Times editorial board. No matter how hard they wag their fingers.
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Old 11th April 2019, 12:27 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
I can't believe I'm semi-defending applecorped here, but it is not uncommon for minority groups in many nations to publicly boycott an election. I've never understood the wisdom of that move, but it's obvious that what applecorped said is fairly common view in certain circumstances.
You would think the better option would be voting local and abstaining from national if that were the objective. Don't feel your congressional/senate/presidential candidate are representing your views? Don't vote for them. Vote local/ordinances etc. Would think that breakdown would scare the **** out of politicians that expect their vote. Only better if they vote for third party candidates that are championing whatever cause or direction they feel is not being taken on by the current crop.

Not voters that don't show up. Voters that do and show they intend to continue to with a conviction for their expectations from representatives.
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Old 11th April 2019, 12:46 PM   #25
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It may already be happening. The Springs elections had a whole heap of candidates for city council and mayor, not a party affiliation in sight. I was forced to read what the candidates had said for themselves to vote!
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Old 11th April 2019, 01:36 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Silly Green Monkey View Post
It may already be happening. The Springs elections had a whole heap of candidates for city council and mayor, not a party affiliation in sight. I was forced to read what the candidates had said for themselves to vote!
Colorado Springs? Yes, I thought that was strange. I did a quick search to see if there was a reason but didn't find one.
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Old 11th April 2019, 11:38 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Really? That would be a nice, beautiful pattern. I almost expected to see 2868686.868686...
Yes, but I imagine that expecting that isn’t rational.

.
Get it? See the decimal repeats...so... OK, i’ll be quiet.
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Old 12th April 2019, 12:34 AM   #28
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I hate twitter. I have a secret hate for those that use it and those that read it.

But my greatest hate is reserved for lazy, useless journalists who think that a quick peek at what's trending on twitter and picking out a few of the more entertaining twits is a substitute for journalism.
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Old 12th April 2019, 04:02 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
Yes, but I imagine that expecting that isn’t rational.

.
Get it? See the decimal repeats...so... OK, i’ll be quiet.
It's a complex problem. Maybe you should visit the "Deeper than primes" thread. There's a guy there who's into transcendental meditation.
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Old 12th April 2019, 04:06 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
I hate twitter. I have a secret hate for those that use it and those that read it.
Why? Twitter's essentially a news feed. Instead of visiting 50 sites in the morning, you only look at one. I get the BBC, a ton of movie and video game and music news, some political stuff, science, etc.

What's to hate?
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Old 12th April 2019, 06:08 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
And maybe the Republicans on Twitter might not be representative of regular Republicans?

Don't tell Travis.



You all just won't let me have anything nice now will you?
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Old 13th April 2019, 08:26 PM   #32
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I read the NYT article the day it came out and immediately thought how similar it is to Australia and the #Auspol Twitterverse.

Australia's progressives are very, vocal in politics on Twitter. The conservatives (lots of old white men in parliament) can be very clumsy on Twitter, and sometimes a huge source of entertainment.

I used to really hate Twitter, but it was actually reading the hilarious and insightful tweets opposing Donald Trump that made me discover that Twitter is an amazing way to keep up to date with well-informed people and insightful information and news in many fields.

The NYT article made me also think that yes, white nationalists are also there in higher numbers than in meatspace.

It is important to realise that Twitter makes money from people posting minimal words and other people pointing out what they missed out saying.

Twitter relies on clickbait and shock value to generate comment, argument, and advertising revenue.

I try to ration my use of it.

Depending on the circumstances, I try to not comment on bigoted articles, and I report bigotry if it's a user, and hope others will also let bigotry rot in obscurity.
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