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Tags Coronavirus , diseases

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Old 2nd February 2020, 05:32 AM   #481
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
4,000 patients, 304 deaths in China.
100 patients, ZERO deaths in the rest of the world.

World panics. Really?
You don't think that something with an apparent death rate of about 8% is worth worrying about? Should we wait until it spreads before trying to stop it? Not sure this needs saying as it seems obvious, but since it has started in China, the patients there have been infected with the disease for much longer than those outside, so there has been less time for the effects to show. The more recent cases are also probably receiving better medical attention.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 09:36 AM   #482
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
No, there are ~200 known pathogens that cause upper respiratory infections and IIRC an additional ~35% of the total have not been identified.

Rhinovirus is a common cause of colds but there are many more including 4 strains of coronavirus.

CDC
d'oh! yer right.

Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
No, it is in the same class.
They're in different families.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 10:12 AM   #483
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Slightly off topic but used to have a really cool free game on my old android called Plague.

You pick what country it starts in and then can morph it and change its affects.

Might have to download it again

Goal being to wipe the globe.
My kid used to play that. She would gleefully announce how many millions of people she had wiped out .
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Old 2nd February 2020, 10:29 AM   #484
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Well, I'm sure of one thing at this stage - the economic impact of this is going to be far-reaching and will almost certainly trigger global recession.

The economic impart of SARS was $40 bn, and I'd estimate this infection is already ten times that, with lots more to come. Shares have been hammered worldwide and we're still in the very early stages of the outbreak.

Oil down, gold up and treasuries headed into recessionary numbers: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

Meanwhile, some potential good news on the how to fight coronavirus front from Thailand: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...on-coronavirus
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Old 2nd February 2020, 10:56 AM   #485
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Btw. Wikipedia has nice table:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...ses_statistics

It's better than graph on arcgis.com because the values are added based on fixed time schedule, so they can be better compared to earlier values.
Today they added 'Daily increase in confirmed', which is basically exponential coefficient in %. That lowered to 22%.
And they also added 'D/(D+R)' column, in other words, how many people died of those whose status is not likely to change anymore. That sits at insane 48%. It certainly might end up having worse mortality than SARS.
Any good news in treatment are certainly welcome.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 12:09 PM   #486
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
Meanwhile, in South Australia, the Health Department is now saying that all passengers from the couple's direct flight from China to Adelaide need to contact them immediately.

I just watched the evening news and they announced the airline, flight number, date and time etc.

You can see why I wasn't impressed with:



The couple are now in quarantine at the Royal Adelaide hospital.
We went through something similar with SARS, the airline doesn't have contact information for people on their flights.

I wouldn't worry too much. One, it's going to spread anyway. Two, social distancing (keep 3 feet away) and hand washing will keep most people safe, and three, most cases are going to be mild.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 12:15 PM   #487
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
You don't think that something with an apparent death rate of about 8% is worth worrying about? Should we wait until it spreads before trying to stop it? Not sure this needs saying as it seems obvious, but since it has started in China, the patients there have been infected with the disease for much longer than those outside, so there has been less time for the effects to show. The more recent cases are also probably receiving better medical attention.
It's not 8%, 4000 is the wrong denominator. I believe it is ~12,000 with that ~300 fatalities.

And the denominator is certainly much higher. There's no way China has an accurate count of milder cases. We wouldn't either if this many cases were in the US. Even using official numbers that 2.4% not 8%.

We have little to no evidence young otherwise healthy people are dying. Smokers, the elderly, and people with other immune deficiencies are at greatest risk.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 12:22 PM   #488
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From the Bloomberg link above:
Quote:
Uber Technologies Inc. suspended 240 accounts in Mexico to contain the spread of coronavirus after the users rode with two drivers who came into contact with a possible infected patient, the company said on its Mexican Twitter account. To date, no confirmed cases of the virus have been reported in Mexico.


This won't last long. Pretty soon millions will be contacts of contacts of contacts.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 12:26 PM   #489
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Btw. Wikipedia has nice table:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...ses_statistics

It's better than graph on arcgis.com because the values are added based on fixed time schedule, so they can be better compared to earlier values.
Today they added 'Daily increase in confirmed', which is basically exponential coefficient in %. That lowered to 22%.
And they also added 'D/(D+R)' column, in other words, how many people died of those whose status is not likely to change anymore. That sits at insane 48%. It certainly might end up having worse mortality than SARS.
Any good news in treatment are certainly welcome.


You don't know what you are talking about. Unless you are also saying any pathogen that kills a total of more than ~800 is worse than SARS.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 12:38 PM   #490
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post


You don't know what you are talking about. Unless you are also saying any pathogen that kills a total of more than ~800 is worse than SARS.
You don't know what you are talking about.

I'm talking about mortality. SARS had mortality of 9.6%. That is number of deaths / number of confirmed cases.
Wuhan virus is it least as deadly, as showed initial study on first 99 cases two days back, of which 11 died, 31 was released, and 57 were still hospitalized.
Number of dead compared to number of released also suggest the mortality is high.
When computing mortality, unconfirmed cases are ignored by definition. That's unknown factor.
Also, as long as the infection is developing, you can't just take actual number of dead and compare it with actual number of cases, which would give you 2%. Those 2 numbers don't corresponds to the same set of patients. Wuhan virus can take up to 2 weeks to kill you, so you have to compare actual number of deaths with number of confirmed cases 1-2 weeks back. That will give you much larger numbers, certainly more than 10%.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 01:42 PM   #491
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Btw. Wikipedia has nice table:
Very interesting, thanks.

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
You don't know what you are talking about.
I wouldn't be too bothered, mate - this is from the first page of the thread, and it's a claim she is steadfastly failing to acknowledge is a load of foetid dingo's kidneys.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Influenza is thousands of time more deadly and more easily spread.
Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Those 2 numbers don't corresponds to the same set of patients. Wuhan virus can take up to 2 weeks to kill you, so you have to compare actual number of deaths with number of confirmed cases 1-2 weeks back. That will give you much larger numbers, certainly more than 10%.
I think you're over-estimating.

A week ago, Imperial College estimated the number of cases then at 100k. The current death rate against that number is still 0.3%, which is bad enough, and certainly a lot worse than influenza.

The trick is to not get a severe case of it, which is what your numbers show, and they are indeed bloody awful. The death rate among severe cases is running at about 30%, which isn't good news for anyone with compromised immune system or heart'/lungs.

The best defence seems to be being young, so I'm off to change my birth certificate immediately. By my reading, I haven't yet seen a person under 40 dying of it, so I'm aiming for late 20s.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 01:53 PM   #492
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
... A week ago, Imperial College estimated the number of cases then at 100k. The current death rate against that number is still 0.3%, which is bad enough, and certainly a lot worse than influenza.
Are you unaware of the range with influenza viral strains?
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Old 2nd February 2020, 02:15 PM   #493
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I think you're over-estimating.

A week ago, Imperial College estimated the number of cases then at 100k. The current death rate against that number is still 0.3%, which is bad enough, and certainly a lot worse than influenza.

The trick is to not get a severe case of it, which is what your numbers show, and they are indeed bloody awful. The death rate among severe cases is running at about 30%, which isn't good news for anyone with compromised immune system or heart'/lungs.

The best defence seems to be being young, so I'm off to change my birth certificate immediately. By my reading, I haven't yet seen a person under 40 dying of it, so I'm aiming for late 20s.
I base the numbers of 'confirmed' cases. Which is the same metric used in SARS. It's people who sought medical attention. Mild cases, people who didn't
seek medical attention, are simply unknown number. So it's pointless for predictions and comparisons.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 02:40 PM   #494
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LA Times: Op-Ed: International overreaction to the coronavirus is more dangerous than the virus itself

Security Magazine: Coronavirus: Are We Overreacting?
Quote:
Let’s put this into perspective. In 2019, the Centre for Disease Control reports that 61,200 people died from the common flu virus. That’s 168 deaths per day! Compared to Coronavirus that was first reported on December 31, with 213 deaths in total until January 31. Based on last years statistics, 5,208 people have died of the common flu in that same time period....

Wuhan Coronavirus, while highly infectious, is reported to have a low fatality rate, with a mortality rate of only two percent, compared to SARS that had a mortality rate of 9.6 percent, Lassa at 10-20 percent and Ebola at 50 percent.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 02:43 PM   #495
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I base the numbers of 'confirmed' cases. Which is the same metric used in SARS. It's people who sought medical attention. Mild cases, people who didn't
seek medical attention, are simply unknown number. So it's pointless for predictions and comparisons.
Not how it works.

First, there were few to none unrecognized cases of SARS.

Second, when antibody tests are developed, epidemiological studies of populations are done to find the actual cases, mild or not.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 02:56 PM   #496
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Your point ?
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Old 2nd February 2020, 02:57 PM   #497
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Not how it works.

First, there were few to none unrecognized cases of SARS.

Second, when antibody tests are developed, epidemiological studies of populations are done to find the actual cases, mild or not.
Are those numbers included in reported 8000 cases of SARS ?
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Old 2nd February 2020, 03:27 PM   #498
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Your point ?
I continue to try to keep this thread based on actual science, sans all the fear mongering.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 03:32 PM   #499
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Are those numbers included in reported 8000 cases of SARS ?
Not sure what you are asking, but assuming you want to know if any epidemiological studies were done to find the actual denominator of SARS cases?

Here's one population survey:
CDC: SARS-CoV Antibody Prevalence in All Hong Kong Patient Contacts
Quote:
A total of 1,068 asymptomatic close contacts of patients with severe acute respiratory (SARS) from the 2003 epidemic in Hong Kong were serologically tested, and 2 (0.19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus.
If you meant something else, let me know.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 03:52 PM   #500
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I continue to try to keep this thread based on actual science, sans all the fear mongering.
You feel being scared ? By what ?
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Old 2nd February 2020, 03:54 PM   #501
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Not sure what you are asking, but assuming you want to know if any epidemiological studies were done to find the actual denominator of SARS cases?

Here's one population survey:
CDC: SARS-CoV Antibody Prevalence in All Hong Kong Patient Contacts


If you meant something else, let me know.
I'm talking about Wikipedia numbers. Which are 8,098 cases for SARS. I think this number means number of confirmed cases, who sought medical attention, and does not include antibody study. So it's fair to compare them to Wuhan virus numbers.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:12 PM   #502
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I'm talking about Wikipedia numbers. Which are 8,098 cases for SARS. I think this number means number of confirmed cases, who sought medical attention, and does not include antibody study. So it's fair to compare them to Wuhan virus numbers.


So you ignored my post and the facts then?

There were almost no mild cases of SARS. So, no it is not valid to compare the two at this point.

Why are you trying to make Wuhan Caronavirus worse than the evidence supports instead of making an effort to understand the science?
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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:54 PM   #503
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post


So you ignored my post and the facts then?

There were almost no mild cases of SARS. So, no it is not valid to compare the two at this point.

Why are you trying to make Wuhan Caronavirus worse than the evidence supports instead of making an effort to understand the science?
I'm making it worse because it will leave more dead. Possibly several times more.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 05:50 PM   #504
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I base the numbers of 'confirmed' cases. Which is the same metric used in SARS. It's people who sought medical attention. Mild cases, people who didn't
seek medical attention, are simply unknown number. So it's pointless for predictions and comparisons.
Not at all - if you want to know a real mortality rate, you need to count all the cases.

Let's face it, even at 0.3%, if half the people in the world catch it, you'd have 10,000,000 dead. Whichever way you look at it, it's a big deal.

Good analysis and expert opinion from Al Jazeera here: https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes...191908812.html

The numbers outside China are still encouraging.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 06:01 PM   #505
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And something to tuck in your hat in the meantime: https://www.gilead.com/news-and-pres...ew-coronavirus
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Old 2nd February 2020, 08:22 PM   #506
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Gilead? Does this virus render women infertile?
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Old 2nd February 2020, 10:07 PM   #507
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I'm talking about Wikipedia numbers. Which are 8,098 cases for SARS. I think this number means number of confirmed cases, who sought medical attention, and does not include antibody study. So it's fair to compare them to Wuhan virus numbers.
It's clear that the total number of SARS cases (mild or not) is very close to the number of confirmed cases, as was later found through antibody studies.

It's not clear how many unconfirmed cases of the coronavirus there are, so comparing the number of confirmed cases of SARS to the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus doesn't make sense.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 11:11 PM   #508
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The National (Canadian News) just interviewed someone in China that could not be seen in the ED. They speculated no test kits.

So that's another reason to estimate there are many unrecognized cases. China doesn't have the capacity to test everyone.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 02:42 AM   #509
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Trump has declared that he has "shut the virus down"

Problem solved, thread closed.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 03:40 AM   #510
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...uhan-under-way


Quote:
According to flight-tracking site FlightRadar 24, the plane carrying the first Australian evacuees from China landed at RAAF base Learmonth, in Exmouth, Western Australia shortly after 4pm (AWST).

The flight’s crew will not be required to be quarantined after the flight. Murphy said on Sunday the measures put in place to protect the crew should be sufficient to avoid the need for quarantine.

After the government initially said Australian citizens and permanent residents would be charged about $1,000 each for transport and accommodation, those evacuated from Wuhan will not pay anything.
I suggest anyone who is interested in the topic read the link before making a comment. The article covers a lot of ground.

Edit. Another article on a very simular topic
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ot-quarantined
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Old 3rd February 2020, 06:36 AM   #511
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7-8% fatality of hospitalized patients- how does that compare to flu? or other viral pneumonias?

I've got an idea-Want to avoid diseases that are the bane of all man kind? Stay out of China.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 07:05 AM   #512
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
I've got an idea-Want to avoid diseases that are the bane of all man kind? Stay out of China.
Will do.
Instead, I've ordered a box of virus samples online, so I can make my own cure.
Not that expensive if you don't bother paying for biohazard shipping.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 07:28 AM   #513
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Ok, I won't call confirmed/dead mortality.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 07:39 AM   #514
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Trump has declared that he has "shut the virus down"

Problem solved, thread closed.
He forgot to mention that the Wuhan coronavirus will cause a global recession, and as a result he will be resoundingly defeated in November.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 07:51 AM   #515
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
You don't know what you are talking about.

I'm talking about mortality. SARS had mortality of 9.6%. That is number of deaths / number of confirmed cases.
Wuhan virus is it least as deadly, as showed initial study on first 99 cases two days back, of which 11 died, 31 was released, and 57 were still hospitalized.
Number of dead compared to number of released also suggest the mortality is high.
When computing mortality, unconfirmed cases are ignored by definition. That's unknown factor.
Also, as long as the infection is developing, you can't just take actual number of dead and compare it with actual number of cases, which would give you 2%. Those 2 numbers don't corresponds to the same set of patients. Wuhan virus can take up to 2 weeks to kill you, so you have to compare actual number of deaths with number of confirmed cases 1-2 weeks back. That will give you much larger numbers, certainly more than 10%.
Not good.

SARS is over, the Wuhan coronavirus is not.

There is a time delay between infection and symptoms (possibly infinite, for some). There is a delay between symptoms and hospitalization (ditto). Between hospitalization and death.

It’s quite a challenge to accurately factor those delays in, to any analysis aiming to produce robust estimates of “deadliness”.

There’s more ...

As with most things human, learning comes with experience. So we can pretty confidently expect better and earlier detection, better and earlier treatments, ... and fewer deaths (relatively speaking).

Of course, surprises may still be in store, but it’s likely the kind of crude mortality rates you seem to be calculating will, in the end, prove to be too high.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:21 AM   #516
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
We know where it came from. why invent CTs?
Because some people need to believe in giant, over-complicated, conspiracies.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:22 AM   #517
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Speaking of being in the library, there must be 10 inconsiderate people in here right now with disgusting coughs. I'm going to suggest they put hand sanitizer and masks with a sign at the door like the clinics all have.
If you want people to wear masks you should put up signs forbidding them, cith a CCTV camera icon. Play on their paranoia...
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:25 AM   #518
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
So .. none ?
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:28 AM   #519
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
You know, there has been so much media coverage that I would bet there are articles saying that the cold and SARS are coronaviruses. MERS is a coronavirus too.
??? SARS is a coronovirus. The term applies to a group of virii seven of which effect human health, 2019-NCoV, MERS and SARS along with the milder 229E, OC43, NL63 and HKU1 virii.
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:31 AM   #520
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Do hand sanitizers work?
Yes.
Quote:
CDC recommends washing hands with soap and water whenever possible because handwashing reduces the amounts of all types of germs and chemicals on hands. But if soap and water are not available, using a hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol can help you avoid getting sick and spreading germs to others. The guidance for effective handwashing and use of hand sanitizer in community settings was developed based on data from a number of studies.
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