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Old 27th January 2020, 12:34 AM   #161
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The National Institutes of Health is apparently working on a vaccine they say could be available in three months.
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Old 27th January 2020, 12:56 AM   #162
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... aaaaaaaaaaaaand in the latest news in Australia, is that the latest victim is 21 years old.

Hopefully she is robust enough to fight it off.
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Old 27th January 2020, 04:32 AM   #163
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Latest is a supposed viral video I did not see myself but that the New York Post reported on....

Quote:
"I am in the area where the coronavirus started," the nurse says in the video.

"I'm here to tell the truth," she adds. "At this moment, Hubei province, including the Wuhan area, even China, 90,000 people have been infected by a coronavirus."
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Old 27th January 2020, 06:13 AM   #164
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There are a few videos on youtube, allegedly showing how bad the situation in China really is. People collapsing in the streets and chaotic scenes. But these videos are mainly posted on conspiracy channels.

I've skimmed through some of it. Well, the situations seems to be real. But you can't tell if it is because of 2019-nCoV or from a totally different event.

For example:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
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Old 27th January 2020, 06:51 AM   #165
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
The reaction of the WHO is an indicator there is no need to panic.
I understood the WHO announcement more to mean that they are waiting for more data before giving a recommendation.
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Old 27th January 2020, 07:20 AM   #166
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
The third possibility is that the measures taken did not work. That is, the results would be the same if people did nothing. Wearing face masks, for example, do little to protect you against a virus. All what they will do is protect others if you have a virus. And that assumes that the main method is transmission via the air. And then a person takes a mask off to wash, eat or drink and they can start spreading the virus. Or should that only be done alone? And that room sterilised between uses?

Edit. Here is a reference on wearing masks that cover similar issues to what I have mentioned. It does so in the context of flu, but either the virus is spread in a similar way to flu or masks are worthless to protect yourself

https://newoldage.blogs.nytimes.com/...but-which-one/
Face masks do sorta work, at least for the flu and colds, but not the way most people think.

Apparently, a common transmission path is you touch a surface, with your fingers, a surface that has "germs" (maybe someone with the flu coughed nearby in the last few hours, or put their germy hand on that surface); your fingers are thus "contaminated". No biggie, just use a hand sanitizer or soap and water, right? But what if you - unconsciously - touch your mouth or nose before? Bingo! You are now infected!

But if you're wearing a face mask, chances are you won't stick your contaminated finger up your nose (at least not before washing your hands).
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Old 27th January 2020, 07:28 AM   #167
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Originally Posted by carlosy View Post
There are a few videos on youtube, allegedly showing how bad the situation in China really is. People collapsing in the streets and chaotic scenes. But these videos are mainly posted on conspiracy channels.

I've skimmed through some of it. Well, the situations seems to be real. But you can't tell if it is because of 2019-nCoV or from a totally different event.

For example:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
My hilite.

China is a big country. Things in parts of Wuhan (the city) are undoubtedly rather grim, and perhaps in some other places nearby, in Hebei (the province), too. From what I've heard, from one source living in Shanghai, the main effect has been to make the streets eerily quiet, for this time of year. Not good for local small businesses, and lots of inventory purchased for the New Year large family meals normal in restaurants will surely have to be thrown out.
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Old 27th January 2020, 07:33 AM   #168
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
OMG Australia is keep all of its cases in the middle of the desert!

That's a little bit harsh.


But has Madagascar shut down its borders yet?
(Old obscure internet reference)
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Old 27th January 2020, 07:40 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Face masks do sorta work, at least for the flu and colds, but not the way most people think.

Apparently, a common transmission path is you touch a surface, with your fingers, a surface that has "germs" (maybe someone with the flu coughed nearby in the last few hours, or put their germy hand on that surface); your fingers are thus "contaminated". No biggie, just use a hand sanitizer or soap and water, right? But what if you - unconsciously - touch your mouth or nose before? Bingo! You are now infected!

But if you're wearing a face mask, chances are you won't stick your contaminated finger up your nose (at least not before washing your hands).
If everyone was wearing mask, it would help immensely. It could cut the transfer rate by 100, maybe even more. And people thinking the masks will protect them directly, is good way to achieve that.
The masks also have to be available though.
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Old 27th January 2020, 08:35 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
If everyone was wearing mask, it would help immensely. It could cut the transfer rate by 100, maybe even more. And people thinking the masks will protect them directly, is good way to achieve that.
The masks also have to be available though.
This is something I´ve thought for a long time, we should copy the Japanese and wear masks whenever we have an illness. I find it really annoying when people show up at work, or in a lift or in a train, coughing and sneezing with no mask, passing it on to everyone else. I´d happily adopt the Japanese custom (when other people do too, I don´t want to be the only freak doing it). Hopefully someone will start a campaign.
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Old 27th January 2020, 08:46 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
If everyone was wearing mask, it would help immensely. It could cut the transfer rate by 100, maybe even more. And people thinking the masks will protect them directly, is good way to achieve that.
The masks also have to be available though.
Sure, for the flu (and likely for “colds”).

However, I’m not sure even the most common transmission pathways for the new CoV are well-understood. Widespread wearing of face masks will undoubtedly help reduce infections, but by how much? Perhaps there are far more effective methods?

From memory, an uncommon, but nonetheless important, method by which SARS was spread, in Hong Kong was via leaky sewerage downpipes ... in some high rise apartment buildings (of which there are a great many in HK), those pipes from upper floors pass through lower apartments. And some had (small) leaks, resulting in the virus becoming airborne in a confined space ...
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Old 27th January 2020, 01:39 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms View Post
Latest is a supposed viral video I did not see myself but that the New York Post reported on....
Not sure where she'd get the data but it wouldn't surprise me.
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Old 27th January 2020, 01:52 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I understood the WHO announcement more to mean that they are waiting for more data before giving a recommendation.
Of course, they are continually analyzing new data.

But it's not like they had scant data currently.

They may eventually call an emergency.

I'm telling ya, but people don't believe me: This is a very serious pathogen but there are not massive fatalities.

So far I haven't heard of any young healthy people dying. Though I have not yet seen the demographics of the fatalities, it appears most have been elderly.
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Old 27th January 2020, 02:31 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Of course, they are continually analyzing new data.

But it's not like they had scant data currently.

They may eventually call an emergency.

I'm telling ya, but people don't believe me: This is a very serious pathogen but there are not massive fatalities.

So far I haven't heard of any young healthy people dying. Though I have not yet seen the demographics of the fatalities, it appears most have been elderly.
They are, average is over 70. But that's the thing. 50 dead over 70, in season of colds, for 11 million city, is normal. Yet the city is under unprecedented quarantine. So my guess would be it's not 50 dead over 70. It's way way worse.
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Old 27th January 2020, 03:10 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
They are, average is over 70. But that's the thing. 50 dead over 70, in season of colds, for 11 million city, is normal. Yet the city is under unprecedented quarantine. So my guess would be it's not 50 dead over 70. It's way way worse.
Since the case count and death toll are going up daily, I'm sure it's "worse".

But way worse is relative.

Did you worry when the 2009 flu epidemic hit this country?

Here's some comparable information:
Quote:
Comparisons to other pandemics and epidemics
Annual influenza epidemics are estimated to affect 5–15% of the global population. Although most cases are mild, these epidemics still cause severe illness in 3–5 million people and 290,000–650,000 deaths worldwide.[181] On average 41,400 people die of influenza-related illnesses each year in the United States, based on data collected between 1979 and 2001.[182] In industrialised countries, severe illness and deaths occur mainly in the high-risk populations of infants, the elderly and chronically ill patients,[181] although the H1N1 flu outbreak (like the 1918 Spanish flu) differs in its tendency to affect younger, healthier people.[183]...
It's important to keep perspective here.
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Old 27th January 2020, 04:02 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Since the case count and death toll are going up daily, I'm sure it's "worse".

But way worse is relative.

Did you worry when the 2009 flu epidemic hit this country?

Here's some comparable information:

It's important to keep perspective here.
That's what I'm talking about. So far it's nothing special. Not worth mentioning. Yet China panics. Why ?
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Old 27th January 2020, 04:58 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
That's what I'm talking about. So far it's nothing special. Not worth mentioning. Yet China panics. Why ?
I wouldn't call it panic. They have stringent means of trying to control the outbreak you probably wouldn't see in other countries.

Consider the culture of their government.



On another note, WA State is now testing 8 people with symptoms that may have been in contact with someone with confirmed infection. I assume that is going to be 8 people our index person came in contact with. But it could be other people arriving from China. We have a large population of Chinese here and some of them did travel to China for the Lunar New Year.

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Old 27th January 2020, 09:05 PM   #178
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
One other prediction I'll make on the back of the forthcoming pandemic is that the financial fallout will tip the world into recession.
Ta-da!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...global-economy
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Old 27th January 2020, 09:35 PM   #179
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Have to say it seems a tad over blown to me, but all good.
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Old 28th January 2020, 12:36 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
The National Institutes of Health is apparently working on a vaccine they say could be available in three months.
Too late.

Currently, it grows exponentially. That means on day 42, 7 Billion poeple will be infected.



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Old 28th January 2020, 01:08 AM   #181
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Meanwhile, in the real world, using the factor of 100 times for infected people from Imperial College, we have ~400k people with the virus and 100 dead, so we can say the current mortality rate is about 0.25%.

An interesting point so far:

Quote:
According to local media, the NHC also said the virus could infect children, but that their symptoms would be relatively mild.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51275896
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Old 28th January 2020, 06:05 AM   #182
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https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

So we follow exponential growth, with factor about 1.5 per day. At this rate the whole world would be infected in 56 days.
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Old 28th January 2020, 06:17 AM   #183
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I'll be fine.
Of course, I live in the Svalbard Seed Vault.
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Old 28th January 2020, 06:27 AM   #184
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Have to say it seems a tad over blown to me, but all good.
We can't know this yet.
It has a 2 week incubation period for symptoms, but is contagious from date of infection.

I expect we will know more in 3 days.
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Old 28th January 2020, 09:51 AM   #185
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

So we follow exponential growth, with factor about 1.5 per day. At this rate the whole world would be infected in 56 days.
Oh, silly me. 56 days if it started today, if you account for 4000 cases already, it's just 36 days.
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Old 28th January 2020, 10:13 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Fear of the unknown, or reasonable fear?
Fear and panic are profitable.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
If, in 2020, the flu kills faaaaaar more people than this new coronavirus does,
Not to forget measles.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
what will the vast fortune spent of face masks, the locking down of a major city, etc have been for?
For show. It's political theatre. To reassure people and demonstrate China's status and capability.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Maybe the widespread wearing of face masks (etc) will reduce the incidence of colds, the flu, ... and the new coronavirus?
General wearing of surgical masks is demonstrably ineffective.
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Old 28th January 2020, 10:20 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
General wearing of surgical masks is demonstrably ineffective.
Source ?
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Old 28th January 2020, 10:56 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
The National Institutes of Health is apparently working on a vaccine they say could be available in three months.

Why bother? Apparently its harmless.
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Old 28th January 2020, 11:11 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by Travis View Post
Why bother? Apparently its harmless.
Well, it's clearly not harmless - except for kids, which is nice.

It has a fatality rate, as do lots of otherwise non-fatal diseases, like influenza & the common cold. It appears to be killing people with underlying diseases, just as those two do.

The mortality rate for 2019-nCoV* is starting to look somewhere between H1N1 and seasonal influenza.

I'm sticking with 3,000,000 deaths worldwide as the likely harvest.

*needs a better name.
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Old 28th January 2020, 01:09 PM   #190
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I heard they were calling ambulances in China, Wuhan-Flu-vans
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Old 28th January 2020, 01:16 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Meanwhile, in the real world, using the factor of 100 times for infected people from Imperial College, we have ~400k people with the virus and 100 dead, so we can say the current mortality rate is about 0.25%.
There is no evidence it is that high. You continue to pull that denominator out of the nether regions.
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Old 28th January 2020, 01:18 PM   #192
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

So we follow exponential growth, with factor about 1.5 per day. At this rate the whole world would be infected in 56 days.



Some people should turn the TV off and get out more.

There are a billion people in China. A few thousand are infected and what are we up to now? 120 deaths?
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Old 28th January 2020, 01:23 PM   #193
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post



Some people should turn the TV off and get out more.

There are a billion people in China. A few thousand are infected and what are we up to now? 120 deaths?
Dude I don't even have TV. And I've already corrected myself
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Old 28th January 2020, 01:26 PM   #194
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Originally Posted by Travis View Post
Why bother? Apparently its harmless.
The discussion in public health circles is, this is the third novel corona virus in a decade. We can expect more and the next one might be more like SARS. So all the vaccine research we do is useful.

In addition, there is another reason for vaccinations besides preventing fatalities and serious illness. Even mild illness has an economic cost of lost work time.
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Old 28th January 2020, 07:31 PM   #195
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
General wearing of surgical masks is demonstrably ineffective.
No, it's effective, just not for the reasons most people think.

Viruses themselves will pass straight through a surgical mask, it is true. They're too small for it to be a direct barrier. But in most cases you're not getting infected because you inhaled the virus. You're getting infected because you've touched an infected surface, then touched your mouth or nose before washing your hands. By acting as a barrier to your mouth and nose, it can effectively prevent infections. A surgical mask is also generally sufficient to block liquid droplets from coughing or sneezing, which are also a vector.
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Old 28th January 2020, 07:41 PM   #196
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WA has it's first secondary case, the wife of the identified case. Not sure though if she was also in China when the patient was meaning it wasn't secondary.

Two of the six awaiting tests, tested negative. That leaves 3 awaiting test results, I believe.

An EU country has a secondary case, France I think but I'm not sure.
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Trump Lied, People Died What color hat should I order with that logo? I think red on black.

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Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old 28th January 2020, 08:02 PM   #197
Skeptic Ginger
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That secondary case might be Canada. I have likely conflated the news stations.

Buch of monitored cases are negative, a number of new people being tested.

And someone else on the plane our case was on tested positive, and has a very mild case.
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Trump Lied, People Died What color hat should I order with that logo? I think red on black.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old 28th January 2020, 08:36 PM   #198
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There is good news on the vaccine front, though.

Australian lab first outside of China to copy coronavirus, helping vaccine push

Quote:
In a major breakthrough in the global fight against coronavirus, scientists in Australia have developed a lab-grown version of the disease.

Described as a "game changer" that will help scientists determine whether a future vaccine is effective, experts at Melbourne's Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity on Tuesday became the world's first scientific lab outside of China to copy the virus.

They will now share it with the World Health Organisation (WHO) in Europe, which will in turn share it with labs worldwide — including one from Queensland — involved in the worldwide race to develop a vaccine.

The team of scientists grew the virus from a patient who had been infected since Friday.

The ABC was in the lab the moment scientists discovered they had successfully grown the virus, with Mike Catton, the co-deputy director of the Doherty Institute, confirming it with three words.

"We got it," he said. "Fantastic."
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Old 28th January 2020, 10:09 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
A surgical mask is also generally sufficient to block liquid droplets from coughing or sneezing, which are also a vector.
I wish Americans would get in the habit of wearing masks when they are sick, to help prevent spreading disease to others who are not. As you said, the masks block droplets, which are usually how pathogens are dispersed into the air.
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Old 28th January 2020, 10:10 PM   #200
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I wish Americans would get in the habit of wearing masks when they are sick, to help prevent spreading disease to others who are not. As you said, the masks block droplets, which are usually how pathogens are dispersed into the air.
And also how they end up landing on surfaces that people can then touch.
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