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#3321 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 25,415
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#3322 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 11,603
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I think history will look back and conclude that most MPs, did not understand what it would mean to go into negotiations with the EU.
The Brexit lot had no definitive, clear, agreed upon plan of negotiation, what they wanted, what the lines in the sand were, what they would compromise on and by how much. Then, they elected a leader who did not want Brexit to run the negotiations. Then, rather than organise, they argued and argued and argued, amongst themselves. Many resigned as it became easier to snipe from the sidelines than it was to try and solve the problem. Meanwhile, the elected leader who did not want Brexit had to try and cobble together something, which she did over a few days at Chequers. In the face of no alternative she had to run with that plan. The resulting mess was inevitable. |
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#3323 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Belgium
Posts: 1,594
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Thank you.
I am, however, not convinced Arlene Foster really wants a "hard Brexit", she seems to want a deal with the EU:
Quote:
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She seems, however, to want an exit from the EU. From your first quote:
Quote:
Your second quote shows she doesn't want a hard border in Ireland, like most people, but this could be easily achieved by doing only random checks on or near the border (of the kind that are done near the border between France and Belgium), and online registrations with checks away from the border for goods that are imported or exported (optical recognition of license plates on the border could also help). So, I would say the people who need to be convinced to change their minds are (in my opinion) more European leaders (Juncker, Barnier, Tusk ...) and Irish Prime Minister Varadkar, much more than Arlene Foster. European leaders should understand that you cannot make a deal with a country, and, at the same, try to "break it up". |
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#3324 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 11,603
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Channel 4 news has just tweeted;
"Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve says "the penny is beginning to drop" among politicians, including some of his Conservative colleagues, that "there is no form of Brexit that is going to benefit our country." |
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#3325 |
No longer the 1
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 19,886
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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#3326 |
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 39,646
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Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes |
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#3327 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 42,632
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One real problem is that both the major parties are badly divided on Brixet.That makes any kind of a deal really hard.
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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#3328 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 25,415
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Yes, it's the standard Brexiteer position, they want a free trade agreement without wanting to adhere to any of the conditions which would typically allow a free trade agreement to be established
Number plate recognition only allows you to tell what number plates have been affixed to vehicles passing the cameras. It's not much use in the context of the Northern Irish border because:
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#3329 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 25,415
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Yup, that's why I'm convinced that a no-deal is the sadly inevitable result.
If Labour and Conservative are to come to an agreement, one party or the other will have to make a huuuuuuuuge climbdown. Labour would have to accept the bribes from the magic money tree and abandon their demand for Customs Union membership - of course members and supporters overwhelmingly want to remain in the EU so that's miles away from what the members want. OR The Conservatives would have to accept "Brexit in name only" and agree to a Customs Union. This simply cannot happen. |
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#3330 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,620
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If the UK wants a border with the EU which will be like the one between France and Belgium, the best way of having that is to remain in the EU. Then the border will be an internal EU one, as the Franco-Belgian border currently is.
Foster doesn't want free movement of people within the EU. How can that be stopped without a hard border in Ireland? The CTA is not relevant. It permits people to pass from NI to the Republic, which I imagine Arlene Foster is relaxed about. But an unguarded Ireland border would allow undesirable people like Poles and Slovaks to pass from the EU into the UK. Putting a stop to this is the main purpose of leaving the EU, and the main motive for Brexit. |
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#3331 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 25,415
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I'd like to don the ol' tinfoil hat
![]() I agree with those posters who have said that Theresa May's primary objective throughout the whole Brexit debacle is to remain Prime Minister and so she has little or no concern for the national welfare, or indeed the good of the Conservative Party beyond its ability to keep her as Prime Minister. I'm not so sure that Theresa May isn't a Brexiteer at heart. For sure she supported Remain during the referendum campaign but IMO her support was as half-hearted as Jeremy Corbyn's. When she was Home Secretary she often expressed a desire to be free of EU human rights legislation so I'm not so sure that she wouldn't be quite content with a no-deal Brexit. If she really was committed to the Remain cause, she has had plenty of opportunities over the last 30 months to significantly water-down Brexit or indeed knock it on the head, but from my perspective, ever time there has been a fork in the road, she has chosen the one which has led to a harder Brexit. |
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#3332 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 11,603
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During one of her speeches, she made it clear one main reason why she was pushing ahead, it was to avoid another referendum which would make another Scottish referendum more likely.
The difference for me is that the Scottish referendum was more honest and open and it had a far bigger majority, 55% to 44% on a 84% turnout, so people were clearer about what they wanted. (Brexit 52% to 48% on a 72% turnout). I think May is convinced by the arguments about democracy that we have to keep going and leave. I think she understands what a negotiation is, far better than most MPs. I think she knows that there is no deal that would be well regarded. So, she has to work with what she has, a very weak hand and she has shown the same sort of resolve as that last Tory Iron Maiden. |
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#3333 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Arcadia, Greece
Posts: 24,079
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From The Guardian:
"TV’s Angus Walker released a wonderful scoop last night. He happened to find himself in a hotel bar in Brussels where he heard Olly Robbins, the government’s chief Brexit negotiator, chatting in a voice loud enough to be heard about what will happen next in the Brexit process. Assuming that Robbins was not engaged in an elaborate act of subterfuge (which seems very unlikely), there were two important revelations in what Robbins said. Robbins said that he expected the final vote on Brexit to take place at the very last minute. He talked about a decision point in “the week beginning end of March”. Presumably that would be the week beginning Monday 25 March, after the EU summit (starting on Thursday 21 March), and only four days before Brexit (Friday 29 March). This confirms what Jeremy Corbyn and many other MPs were saying in the Commons yesterday; that Theresa May is running down the clock. Robbins said that he expected MPs to be presented with a final choice between backing May’s deal and a long extension of article 50. This is also very interesting, because most of those accusing May of running down the clock were doing so on the assumption that she would end up offering MPs a choice between her deal and no deal. If Robbins is right, then May has or will conclude that a no-deal Brexit would be unacceptable." Fuller story here at 9:23 |
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"Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut |
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#3334 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,648
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#3335 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 25,415
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They may be offered that choice but as I understand it, any prolongation of article 50 would require the UK to hold European elections - something we're not in a position to be able to do. It would also require parliament to vote to extend article 50, something it has repeatedly said that it is not prepared to do.
This sounds like wishful thinking on behalf of the Guardian to me - IMO Theresa May would be perfectly happy with a no-deal Brexit and far happier with a no-deal Brexit than with any delay to article 50. |
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#3336 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,620
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#3337 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 28,497
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Me: So what you're saying is that, if the load carrying ability of the lower structure is reduced to the point where it can no longer support the load above it, it will collapse without a jolt, right? Tony Szamboti: That is right |
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#3338 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Arcadia, Greece
Posts: 24,079
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Well, it's ITV's story and The Guardian is just reporting it with a few added comments of their own.
I'd guess a no-deal Brexit would spell a rapid end for May and quite possibly a Labour government pretty soon. While I agree that Corbyn has handled this atrociously it won't be his party in the cross-hairs of public disgust as the horrible reality hits home, it'll be the Tories. |
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"Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut |
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#3339 |
Pi
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 16,855
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No it won't. It'll be those evil Europeans and the socialists in power that are at fault for everything.
This will be the spin in the right wing* press. Enough of the loud people will believe it and those responsible for this *********** will be able to scream like ****-knuckles from the sideline while ensuring no stain of fuckwittery applies to them. *Usual caveats apply |
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Up the River! |
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#3340 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 11,603
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Johnson etc who resigned during negotiations, will try and reappear claiming, they would have done a better job. They would not have. The Tories and Parliament were too split and no one has produced a better plan that has widespread backing.
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#3341 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
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#3342 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 45,170
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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#3343 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 25,415
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Without a binding vote, Theresa May does not have to refer the matter to parliament.
MPs were offered the chance for parliament to have a legal right to have a say in the event of a no-deal Brexit. They declined that chance, opting instead for something non-binding. They were given a chance to make a difference but chose instead to virtue signal. |
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#3344 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,620
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The Common Travel AreaWP (CTA; Irish: Comhlimistéar Taistil) is an open borders area comprising the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the Channel Islands. The British Overseas Territories are not included. Based on agreements that are not legally binding, the internal borders of the Common Travel Area (CTA) are subject to minimal controls, if any, and can normally be crossed by British and Irish citizens with minimal identity documents with certain exceptions. |
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#3345 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
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#3346 |
Trainee Pirate
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: An Uaimh
Posts: 2,588
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#3347 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 25,415
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I wouldn't be shocked to find David Davis claiming that he would have done a better job
![]() Then again, Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party are claiming that their equally fantastical scheme, customs union membership together with the ability to negotiate separate trade deals, would have been possible if they had been in a position to make the deal. Given the various red lines within which she has chosen to operate, it's likely that Theresa May got the least worst deal she could. The problem being the red lines which are (for both parties)
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#3348 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 28,497
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Me: So what you're saying is that, if the load carrying ability of the lower structure is reduced to the point where it can no longer support the load above it, it will collapse without a jolt, right? Tony Szamboti: That is right |
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#3349 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 25,415
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#3350 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
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#3351 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,620
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I travelled by bus last week from Glasgow to Donegal, on the ferry from Cairnryan to Belfast, and then the Border crossing road from Derry to Donegal town, without passing any identity checks at all. Same on the return journey. Therefore I have no idea what you are talking about.
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#3352 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
Posts: 8,822
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With no ID checks at the moment.
But let's unpick this supposed "problem." Ireland - like the UK - is not in Schengen. It still has passport controls and checking, and so the only people getting in without question are UK and other EU citizens. No hard border with NI would allow such EU citizens to slip across and get a boat - but not fly - to the rest of the UK, as long as even the most cursory of passport checking was not instituted. So what? Seriously, just how many EU citizens - with 26 countries to choose from other than their own - are going to be interested in going the long-way round to sneak into the UK, where they can't live or work legitimately? If they were still aiming for the latter, why not just come in direct as a legitimate short-stay visitor? Even if that required a visa, it's still going to be easier and cheaper than playing "Around the British Isles in X Days." |
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#3353 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
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#3354 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
Posts: 8,822
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#3355 |
Trainee Pirate
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: An Uaimh
Posts: 2,588
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#3356 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
Posts: 8,822
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The DUP are going to have to suck up and accept something, given that some of the things they have said they want are incompatible with each other. Even to the Tories, their usefulness is transitory, and even their support may be unnecessary in certain circumstances.
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#3357 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 25,415
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The DUP haven't spoken specifically about identity checks. I'd be very surprised if they would tolerate identity checks being introduced between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK where they don't currently exist. I presume the identity checks on flights are accepted because all domestic flights are subject to them.
Unless similar identity checks are going to be introduced on the Isle of Wight ferry, it's a clear example of Northern Ireland being treated differently. |
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#3358 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 5,098
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"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills |
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#3359 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
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#3360 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 11,603
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The CTA does not give UK citizens the right to live and work in Ireland, it is merely a freedom of travel agreement. It is not being subject to the 1935 Aliens Act that allows UK citizens unrestricted access to live and work in Ireland;
http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en..._citizens.html "UK citizens are entitled to live in Ireland. In general, people who are not Irish citizens are subject to the Aliens Act 1935 as amended. UK citizens are not." |
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