IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Afghanistan issues

Reply
Old 19th August 2021, 09:47 PM   #1
Orphia Nay
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger
 
Orphia Nay's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 39,372
Afghanistan

Will China step in to develop its Belt and Road initiative, and to mine precious metals?

What influence will Russia have?

How will the Taliban behave to the people of Afghanistan?

What is happening there now?
__________________
"We stigmatize and send to the margins
people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid"
- Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".
Orphia Nay is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th August 2021, 10:28 PM   #2
PhantomWolf
Penultimate Amazing
 
PhantomWolf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 21,203
Did we really need a 4th Afghanistan thread?
__________________

It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah
I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871)

PhantomWolf is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th August 2021, 11:13 PM   #3
Orphia Nay
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger
 
Orphia Nay's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 39,372
Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Did we really need a 4th Afghanistan thread?

Yes. The other 3 have a narrow focus.
__________________
"We stigmatize and send to the margins
people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid"
- Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".
Orphia Nay is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th August 2021, 11:52 PM   #4
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
 
The Great Zaganza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 15,699
I predict: China will move in and create mining towns, staffed by Chinese, isolated from the locals.
This will lead sooner rather than later to friction and violence.
China might hire Russian mercs to help, which will escalate the situation further.
__________________
“You can safely assume you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.”
-Anne Lamott
The Great Zaganza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 04:20 AM   #5
Darat
Lackey
Administrator
 
Darat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 100,019
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I predict: China will move in and create mining towns, staffed by Chinese, isolated from the locals.
This will lead sooner rather than later to friction and violence.
China might hire Russian mercs to help, which will escalate the situation further.
Doubt it - they'll do what they usually do import the needed experts and hire locals via the local "leaders". What you must bear in mind is that unlike the "western" countries China has no interest in the internal workings of a country (if it doesn't get in their way).
__________________
I wish I knew how to quit you
Darat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 07:01 AM   #6
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
 
The Great Zaganza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 15,699
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Doubt it - they'll do what they usually do import the needed experts and hire locals via the local "leaders". What you must bear in mind is that unlike the "western" countries China has no interest in the internal workings of a country (if it doesn't get in their way).
that's sure what they'd like to do. but given the experience in Africa, Chinese enclaves get the hate pretty quick, mostly because they do nothing to bring money for the local economy but do pollute a lot.
And, of course, they tend to be racist as ****.
__________________
“You can safely assume you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.”
-Anne Lamott
The Great Zaganza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 09:26 AM   #7
jollyroger85
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 301
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Doubt it - they'll do what they usually do import the needed experts and hire locals via the local "leaders". What you must bear in mind is that unlike the "western" countries China has no interest in the internal workings of a country (if it doesn't get in their way).
And if it does, the "invasion" will end the same way the others before it did.
jollyroger85 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 09:47 AM   #8
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 53,572
Originally Posted by jollyroger85 View Post
And if it does, the "invasion" will end the same way the others before it did.
I dunno. China seems to be a lot more comfortable with pogroms, genocide, and ethnic cleansing than a lot of the previous contenders. I think the real question is whether Pakistan is willing to leave that corridor open for Chinese shenanigans, and how far China is willing to go to force Pakistan to leave it open.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 10:44 AM   #9
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
 
The Great Zaganza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 15,699
The New Silk Road only works if it is faster, cheaper and safer than container ships.
No amount of crackdown could make it safe enough if the Afghani want to disrupt it.
__________________
“You can safely assume you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.”
-Anne Lamott
The Great Zaganza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 11:07 AM   #10
Sherkeu
Master Poster
 
Sherkeu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Disneyland
Posts: 2,623
Originally Posted by jollyroger85 View Post
And if it does, the "invasion" will end the same way the others before it did.
This has already happened, most notably at the world largest copper reserves at Mes Aynak. China wanted it but there were too many problems, including a self-own that signing the large contract made copper prices weak.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mes_Aynak_mine

https://chinadialogue.net/en/busines...it-languishes/

Quote:
(2018) The Afghan government’s hopes of economic development were high in 2008 when it signed contracts with a consortium consisting of Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) and Jiangxi Copper Corporation.
However, no exploitation has begun at Mes Aynak – and no one knows when it will, which also casts doubts on the prospects of exploiting Afghanistan’s numerous other mineral deposits.

Looking for an explanation, chinadialogue has obtained exclusive access to a recent report of the Logar provincial government, amongst others, listing the problems that have held back the mine’s launch. It states that the Chinese consortium has requested to renegotiate the contracts, and that the excavation of an archaeological site in the mining area is taking longer than expected. The report also indicates a lack of phosphate sources – a mineral needed for the further processing of copper ore – that the Afghan government promised to make available to the consortium, and concerns over security.
May 2020 Afghanistan attacks
Quote:
On 17 May, the Taliban attacked a security checkpoint near the Mes Aynak mine, the country's largest copper mine, in Mohammad Agha District, Logar Province, southeast of Kabul. Eight security guards were killed and five others wounded
They also had occasional soviet era rockets landing there.
You could argue that since attacks in the area were Taliban that some security risk will be removed. But if the previous government couldnt get their act together after so many years with billions in international support, the Taliban will be 100x worse.
Too risky for China. They might try to placehold their stakes but no one is going to invest big money there for a loooong time to come.
Sherkeu is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 11:08 AM   #11
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 53,572
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The New Silk Road only works if it is faster, cheaper and safer than container ships.
No amount of crackdown could make it safe enough if the Afghani want to disrupt it.
Maybe it's a question of priming the pump. If there's money to be made, there's money to be invested in the opportunity. I wonder how much money you'd have to throw at the Taliban, for them to sign on as your de facto security force and throughput guarantor in the region.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 11:12 AM   #12
BrooklynBaby
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,119
We might as well let China have Afghanistan because if it's like Iraq, we don't know diddly squat about it. Even with the CIA, NSA, FBI, UN, and all of the other acronyms, when Bush went into Iraq he know nothing about the ancient tribalism that Saddam was sitting on and tamping down, and it was a complete surprise to the U.S. when those tribes started fighting immediately after Saddam was pulled out the hole in the ground and ISIS was born. We are quite simply too stupid to be nation building.
BrooklynBaby is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 11:52 AM   #13
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 52,701
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The New Silk Road only works if it is faster, cheaper and safer than container ships.
No amount of crackdown could make it safe enough if the Afghani want to disrupt it.
Which would be very easy to do.
Afghanistan has just about the best terrain for Guerilla Warfare on earth. As The British, THe Russins, and The Americans have found out. The CHinese , if they invervene,will learn the same lesson.
In fact. one fo the problem the Taliban faces is that they are almsot 100% Pashtun, and Many Afghans regard the Pashtuns as just being Puppets of the Pakistanis.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.

Last edited by dudalb; 20th August 2021 at 11:53 AM.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 12:04 PM   #14
crescent
Illuminator
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 4,197
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
....I think the real question is whether Pakistan is willing to leave that corridor open for Chinese shenanigans, and how far China is willing to go to force Pakistan to leave it open.
China and Pakistan seem to get along pretty well, based at least partly on their shared antipathy towards India. They've already got defense contracts, with Pakistan's most common fighter jet being produced via a shared development with China.

If anything, the U.S./European withdrawal from Afghanistan could lead to closer relations between Pakistan and China. The U.S. won't need Pakistan to allow transit of supplies to Afghanistan anymore (Pakistan loses leverage with the U.S.) and China won't pressure Pakistan on human rights and democracy the way the U.S. does. Chinese military hardware is still at least the technological equal to India (Pakistan's arch nemesis) and is much cheaper than the American or European hardware.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 12:39 PM   #15
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 25,694
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which would be very easy to do.
Afghanistan has just about the best terrain for Guerilla Warfare on earth. As The British, THe Russins, and The Americans have found out. The CHinese , if they invervene,will learn the same lesson.
In fact. one fo the problem the Taliban faces is that they are almsot 100% Pashtun, and Many Afghans regard the Pashtuns as just being Puppets of the Pakistanis.
The Chinese aren't interested in Afghanistan, only certain resources (copper, gold, REY, lithium) located there. The rest of the country is irrelevant.
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 12:53 PM   #16
Scorpion
Master Poster
 
Scorpion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,884
I hope they start mining lapis lazuli, because its still very expensive to buy it as artists oil paint.
__________________
You see many stars in the sky at night, but not when the sun rises. Can you therefore say there are no stars in the heavens during the day? O man because you cannot find God in the days of your ignorance, say not that there is no God.
Sri Ramakrishna
Even in the valley of the shadow of death two and two do not make six.
Leo Tolstoy
Scorpion is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 01:39 PM   #17
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 52,701
Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
The Chinese aren't interested in Afghanistan, only certain resources (copper, gold, REY, lithium) located there. The rest of the country is irrelevant.
Yes, but you sort of have to control the countryside to be able to exploit the mineral resources. And any open CHinese presence would make them a target.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 03:07 PM   #18
Crazy Chainsaw
Philosopher
 
Crazy Chainsaw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 5,701
Taliban will soon Mean sold to China.
Crazy Chainsaw is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2021, 08:40 PM   #19
Orphia Nay
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger
 
Orphia Nay's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 39,372
Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
The Chinese aren't interested in Afghanistan, only certain resources (copper, gold, REY, lithium) located there. The rest of the country is irrelevant.
China is actually fairly concerned about Islamic and military influence on the Uighur population in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) in far West China, which shares a border with Afghanistan, Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and India.
__________________
"We stigmatize and send to the margins
people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid"
- Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".
Orphia Nay is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st August 2021, 02:17 AM   #20
P.J. Denyer
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 8,408
In a story so Tory it might have been a Private Eye spoof, security staff at the British Embassy in Kabul have been fired & abandoned because they were 'outsourced'. (To their credit the US are helping or evacuating workers from their own embassy employed through the same company)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-uk-protection
__________________
"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion

"Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills
P.J. Denyer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st August 2021, 12:39 PM   #21
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 25,694
Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
China is actually fairly concerned about Islamic and military influence on the Uighur population in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) in far West China, which shares a border with Afghanistan, Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and India.
The Chinese want some peace for their 're-education' schemes.
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st August 2021, 05:07 PM   #22
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,688
An interview with a female journalist from a few hours ago, she is fearful

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/progr...ban-takes-over
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2021, 06:14 AM   #23
dellarte
Illuminator
 
dellarte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 3,030
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Doubt it - they'll do what they usually do import the needed experts and hire locals via the local "leaders". What you must bear in mind is that unlike the "western" countries China has no interest in the internal workings of a country (if it doesn't get in their way).
Why is China building on uninhabited islands in SE Asia?
dellarte is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2021, 08:22 AM   #24
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 53,572
Originally Posted by dellarte View Post
Why is China building on uninhabited islands in SE Asia?
What does that have to with what Darat is talking about, or the thread in general?

Don't get me wrong. I think it's an interesting subject, and worth discussing. But if you're genuinely curious, it's probably best if you start a separate thread for the separate topic.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2021, 01:33 PM   #25
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 25,694
Originally Posted by dellarte View Post
Why is China building on uninhabited islands in SE Asia?
Resource control.
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2021, 02:39 PM   #26
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 53,572
[quote=catsmate;13577654]Resource control.[/QUOTE

I'd ask, but this really isn't the thread for it.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd August 2021, 02:50 PM   #27
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 29,874
Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Will China step in to develop its Belt and Road initiative, and to mine precious metals?
China will so anything short of stopping persecution of Uighurs to get into Afghanistan. I'm not sure whether the beliefs of Uighurs match the insanity of the Taliban's, so it may not even be an issue.

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
What influence will Russia have?
Logically, none. Their efforts in Afghanistan wouldn't be forgotten very easily, but if it suits Putin to give them weapons, there's a match available there.

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
How will the Taliban behave to the people of Afghanistan?
Nicely, as long as they do what they're told.

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
What is happening there now?
The usual - beheading, retribution, lies...
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2021, 05:28 AM   #28
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 49,519
Originally Posted by Crazy Chainsaw View Post
Taliban will soon Mean sold to China.
I’m not so sure about that. The Taliban will likely accept Chinese money, but they might not give much of anything in return.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2021, 06:38 AM   #29
Darat
Lackey
Administrator
 
Darat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 100,019
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I’m not so sure about that. The Taliban will likely accept Chinese money, but they might not give much of anything in return.
Doubt it - Chian won't pay if it isn't getting what it wants.

"Hearts and minds" Chinese style is "If you want to keep your hearts, mind your own business".
__________________
I wish I knew how to quit you
Darat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2021, 06:50 AM   #30
dellarte
Illuminator
 
dellarte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 3,030
Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Resource control.
Malaysia and Indonesia lay SE of China. Philippines ceded Mindanao territory to muslin. Australian media take potshots at Beijing.
dellarte is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2021, 09:19 AM   #31
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 49,519
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Doubt it - Chian won't pay if it isn't getting what it wants.
China won't keep paying after they're double-crossed. That doesn't mean they won't pay at all.

Quote:
"Hearts and minds" Chinese style is "If you want to keep your hearts, mind your own business".
The Taliban will not be afraid of China, not after they routed the Americans.

And really, what is China going to do to them? China is ruthless, sure, but they also have jack **** for power projection capabilities that would work here. They have plenty of troops, but very little air lift capacity, and roads into Afghanistan are terrible and vulnerable. Despite a shared border, I don't think there even are any roads between China and Afghanistan. They could likely get Tajikistan to help out, but that's still a really long supply line, and China's army is not built for long-distance deployment. And movement of resources within Afghanistan is still a problem, even with full cooperation from Tajikistan. Why would China have any better luck than the Soviets did? It's not like the Soviets failed because they were too nice.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2021, 10:40 AM   #32
Darat
Lackey
Administrator
 
Darat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 100,019
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
China won't keep paying after they're double-crossed. That doesn't mean they won't pay at all.



The Taliban will not be afraid of China, not after they routed the Americans.

And really, what is China going to do to them? China is ruthless, sure, but they also have jack **** for power projection capabilities that would work here. They have plenty of troops, but very little air lift capacity, and roads into Afghanistan are terrible and vulnerable. Despite a shared border, I don't think there even are any roads between China and Afghanistan. They could likely get Tajikistan to help out, but that's still a really long supply line, and China's army is not built for long-distance deployment. And movement of resources within Afghanistan is still a problem, even with full cooperation from Tajikistan. Why would China have any better luck than the Soviets did? It's not like the Soviets failed because they were too nice.
.. You seem to be going along a strange path of thought, we were I thought discussing business/commercial agreement between Afghanistan and China not military action.
__________________
I wish I knew how to quit you
Darat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2021, 12:04 PM   #33
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 49,519
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
.. You seem to be going along a strange path of thought, we were I thought discussing business/commercial agreement between Afghanistan and China not military action.
How exactly do you enforce a business agreement with someone like the Taliban? You can't impose sanctions or tariffs. You can't seize assets. You can stop paying them, but what do they care? They aren't in this for the money, they really are believers.

Enforcement of contracts is always ultimately about the threatened use of force. We're just used to scenarios where it never actually reaches that point, or if it does (ie, someone goes to prison for fraud), only one side is really capable of deploying it and so there's no real resistance. But the Taliban aren't like an ordinary company, or person, or country. Military action is always going to be a consideration when dealing with them, even about ostensibly non-military issues.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2021, 12:26 PM   #34
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 29,874
Here's an excellent piece on Afghanistan - containing the best cartoon on the subject you'll ever see - plus a warning that Somalia could be the next domino to fall.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...tans-footsteps
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd August 2021, 06:32 PM   #35
Orphia Nay
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger
 
Orphia Nay's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 39,372
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Here's an excellent piece on Afghanistan - containing the best cartoon on the subject you'll ever see - plus a warning that Somalia could be the next domino to fall.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...tans-footsteps
That is a good article.

"“The Taliban are inheriting a different country than they left 20 years ago,” US Congressman Jake Auchincloss, a Marine veteran who led patrols through Afghanistan, said in a recent interview. “The literacy rate has doubled, the infant mortality rate has halved, access to electricity has tripled or quadrupled, there are ten times as many kids in school as there were 20 years ago, 40 percent of whom are girls. The Taliban are inheriting a country in which real progress has been made.”

"The question for Western policymakers should not just be whether, as Auchincloss asked, the Taliban will maintain this progress, but why, despite it, the country still fell."

I notice Al Jazeera has a main topic of Afghanistan in their menu bar.

Will Afghanistan trend towards being an Islamic state, in the main of the green crescent?

What role does Islam and superstition play in the fall of Afghanistan?

I imagine it plays a huge role. People don't say no to them if they are Muslim because the Taliban are holier than they.
__________________
"We stigmatize and send to the margins
people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid"
- Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".
Orphia Nay is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2021, 02:59 AM   #36
Lplus
Muse
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 769
Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
That is a good article.

"“The Taliban are inheriting a different country than they left 20 years ago,” US Congressman Jake Auchincloss, a Marine veteran who led patrols through Afghanistan, said in a recent interview. “The literacy rate has doubled, the infant mortality rate has halved, access to electricity has tripled or quadrupled, there are ten times as many kids in school as there were 20 years ago, 40 percent of whom are girls. The Taliban are inheriting a country in which real progress has been made.”

"The question for Western policymakers should not just be whether, as Auchincloss asked, the Taliban will maintain this progress, but why, despite it, the country still fell."

I notice Al Jazeera has a main topic of Afghanistan in their menu bar.

Will Afghanistan trend towards being an Islamic state, in the main of the green crescent?

What role does Islam and superstition play in the fall of Afghanistan?

I imagine it plays a huge role. People don't say no to them if they are Muslim because the Taliban are holier than they.
This - I'm wondering if the population of Afganistan actually want a democratic government, however incorrupt and inclusive. If they want to be ruled by their religion, I can't see anything stopping it.
__________________
Those who are most fanatical in their condemnation of others are often mortally afraid that, in their deepest subconcious, they agree with those who they are condemning.
Life isn't fair, Princess; anyone who says it could be is selling a political ideology.
Communism actively works against the fundamental urge of the human animal to survive and prosper, even at the expense of others, whilst Nazism relies on that urge.
Lplus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2021, 03:22 AM   #37
Darat
Lackey
Administrator
 
Darat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 100,019
Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
This - I'm wondering if the population of Afganistan actually want a democratic government, however incorrupt and inclusive. If they want to be ruled by their religion, I can't see anything stopping it.
Outside the few "cosmopolitan" cities you are in a different world to what we are used to dealing with.

(Whilst I'll make the following comment of course it is not as simple as that and there is no totally accurate way of making a one to one comparison with any historic time.)

The society for most of the population is more akin to the age of the Barons in Europe, strong local leaders with the general population as serfs with only the rights granted by local leaders, with religion still playing a primary part in maintaining social cohesion.

This is why I've always said the approach to "nation building" in Afghanistan should have been an economic approach, develop a middle class if you want to see lasting change.
__________________
I wish I knew how to quit you

Last edited by Darat; 24th August 2021 at 03:24 AM.
Darat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2021, 12:54 PM   #38
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 29,874
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
This is why I've always said the approach to "nation building" in Afghanistan should have been an economic approach, develop a middle class if you want to see lasting change.
I'm not sure your premise is right, because isn't building a middle class exactly what was attempted?

Sending their girls to school, being moderate on religion, playing cricket... aren't those kind of things the exact domain of the middle classes?

Problem is those middle classes aren't armed to the teeth, while the religious zealots are. An AK47 beats a textbook every time.
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2021, 04:05 PM   #39
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 52,701
Originally Posted by dellarte View Post
Malaysia and Indonesia lay SE of China. Philippines ceded Mindanao territory to muslin. Australian media take potshots at Beijing.
Uh, Mindaneo always had a heavily Muslim population.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th August 2021, 04:08 PM   #40
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 52,701
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'm not sure your premise is right, because isn't building a middle class exactly what was attempted?

Sending their girls to school, being moderate on religion, playing cricket... aren't those kind of things the exact domain of the middle classes?

Problem is those middle classes aren't armed to the teeth, while the religious zealots are. An AK47 beats a textbook every time.

Painfully true.
Mao was a murdering bastard who is in the finals for "worst human being of all time" competion, but he but spoke the truth when he said

"In the end all political power comes from the mouth of a gun".
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 04:38 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.