Scottish Independence referendum 2023

[Nessie]

So, a month shy of 9 years after the last Scottish Independence referendum, we are to get another one on the 19th October 2023.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-61954331

"Nicola Sturgeon to set out plan for second independence referendum"

I presume if that one is another no, the SNP will wait 8 years and have another in 2031. The last one in 2014 was a vote of 55% no, on a turnout of 84%.

The first part of the campaign, will be over the legality of having another referendum. I am not happy, as having repeated referendums until you get the result you want and then stopping, looks rather undemocratic to me.

[The Don]

For reasons I cannot explain rationally, I was opposed to Scottish independence last time around.

This time I think that Scotland should take the opportunity to become independent.

edited to add......

But as I don't have a dog in the fight, my opinions both then and now are irrelevant.

[Nessie]

There will also be a fight over whether there should be a three way voting option, with yes, no and devo max, as in more powers move north.

[Hlafordlaes]

I wonder what has changed since the last referendum that might justifiably warrant a repeat and a potential reevaluation of motives and opportunities.

[Nessie]

I genuinely think that the SNP are hoping BJ stays PM for another 18 months as people get even more sick of him and his version of Etonian Conservatism, with many Scots wanting out of future Conservative rule, rather than out of the UK. But they will vote to leave the UK, so as to avoid any more Etonian Conservatism.

[shuttlt]

Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes

I wonder what has changed since the last referendum that might justifiably warrant a repeat and a potential reevaluation of motives and opportunities.

To be fair, they were pretty much wanting a do-over from the end of the last referendum. Nothing really needs to happen to justify the SNP pushing for a referendum.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by The Don

For reasons I cannot explain rationally, I was opposed to Scottish independence last time around.

This time I think that Scotland should take the opportunity to become independent.

edited to add......

But as I don't have a dog in the fight, my opinions both then and now are irrelevant.

I'm the same - I didn't want to see my country broken up, now I think "good luck" to them as I can't think of any rational reason to stay anchored to the rest of the country now it has gone to the dogs.

[Hlafordlaes]

Originally Posted by shuttlt

To be fair, they were pretty much wanting a do-over from the end of the last referendum. Nothing really needs to happen to justify the SNP pushing for a referendum.

My point stands, regardless.

[crescent]

I remember discussion of this here on the forum during the leadup to the Brexit vote. Several members had argued that Brexit would make it more likely that pro-independence Scottish people would make another push. The pro-Brexit person argued strenuously that would not happen, because it was too soon. The argument was that Scotland would need to let at least a whole generation pass before trying again, so worries about Brexit leading to Scotland's independence were unwarranted.

Well, democracy in action.

[Nessie]

It will be interesting to hear from Rolfe, as she has had a bit of a falling out with the SNP leadership under Sturgeon.

I worry independence will come down to personality as much as policy. Farage and BJ appealed to enough people to win Brexit, despite obvious policy issues, such as the Irish border. But, they never appealed in Scotland.

[Lplus]

If it weren't for the need to maintain a land border they could head off now with my blessing (assuming a majority really do want to leave.) A pity, since England and Scotland (and Wales and NI) have done some pretty impressive things together in the last 200 years or so, but there you go.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by Darat

I'm the same - I didn't want to see my country broken up, now I think "good luck" to them as I can't think of any rational reason to stay anchored to the rest of the country now it has gone to the dogs.

Just because Scotland is declining under a corrupt virtually one party state is no good reason to jettison us! The majority don't want the SG pursuing independence at present, they would rather it focussed on delivering effective services and perhaps less centralisation and more devolution of powers away from the centre.

This is about Sturgeon maintaining power within the party. The driver is internal SNP politics.

[arthwollipot]

Cool! I look forward to seeing the result.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Planigale

Just because Scotland is declining under a corrupt virtually one party state is no good reason to jettison us! The majority don't want the SG pursuing independence at present, they would rather it focussed on delivering effective services and perhaps less centralisation and more devolution of powers away from the centre.

This is about Sturgeon maintaining power within the party. The driver is internal SNP politics.

Well done.

[Carrot Flower King]

As long as they stick by the line every politician and journalist usually trot out, that the border is Hadrian's Wall, then we here can be shot of sodding Westminster, which ignores us.

Aaaah, but then we'd be in the position a couple of blokes I spoke to in Sutherland just before the '14 referendum found themselves: ignored by all the Central Belters in Holyrood.

Can we not just have a more localised system of governance for all of us? Y'know, local decision making with some actual power? Less centralisation?

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King

As long as they stick by the line every politician and journalist usually trot out, that the border is Hadrian's Wall, then we here can be shot of sodding Westminster, which ignores us.

Aaaah, but then we'd be in the position a couple of blokes I spoke to in Sutherland just before the '14 referendum found themselves: ignored by all the Central Belters in Holyrood.

Can we not just have a more localised system of governance for all of us? Y'know, local decision making with some actual power? Less centralisation?

Absolutely!

The SNP are very centralising. There is now a Scottish police force, fire and rescue service, and ambulance service. The adult social services are being taken out of local authority control and being put into a new National Care Service, by analogy with the NHS. The NHS in Scotland is subject to more direct political direction than it is in England. It will be interesting to see how much the new education reforms shift control of education from local authorities to central government.

For the periphery of Scotland, Scottish devolution has resulted in a reduction in local autonomy. For the islands Edinburgh is nearly as remote as London, and Edinburgh is far more controlling.

[Architect]

Speaking as someone who also comes from the periphery, I think the extent to which some centralisation is suggested as problematic is overly simplified. SFRS, for example, still operates using three main regional divisions and the situation on the ground seems similar to the previous arrangement.


That said, it has long been recognised that there is a split in the SNP cabinet between those who wish centralisation and those who support stronger local government. That argument has not yet fully played out and I suspect much may yet change.

[Architect]

Originally Posted by Planigale

Just because Scotland is declining under a corrupt virtually one party state is no good reason to jettison us! The majority don't want the SG pursuing independence at present, they would rather it focussed on delivering effective services and perhaps less centralisation and more devolution of powers away from the centre.

This is about Sturgeon maintaining power within the party. The driver is internal SNP politics.

I'm sorry but that is painting with an excessively broad brush.


The party remains split between the gradualists, who I suspect would be happy to wait a few more years for Indyref #2 (so, for example, to ensure the Scottish tax service is working smoothly) and the absolutist wing who think the country should march out of the door tomorrow.


The Cabinet has rightly identified te likelihood of an impasse from the Supreme Court and Tory party at Westminster. It therefore knocks the debate into the long grass for 2-3 years in a way which prevents a party split.


If, on the other hand, BoJo sees this and goes for an election then the SNP have the advantage of an incompetent, uncaring administration at no. 10 as a shining example of why self-determination is a good idea.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King

As long as they stick by the line every politician and journalist usually trot out, that the border is Hadrian's Wall, then we here can be shot of sodding Westminster, which ignores us.

Aaaah, but then we'd be in the position a couple of blokes I spoke to in Sutherland just before the '14 referendum found themselves: ignored by all the Central Belters in Holyrood.

Can we not just have a more localised system of governance for all of us? Y'know, local decision making with some actual power? Less centralisation?

The balance of power between state/local governments and the federal goverement is an eternal issue in American History.

But loot is simple: The Central belt in Scotland is much more heavily populated then a lot of the rural parts of Scotland. They are always going to probably be the most powerful voice.Trick is to balance the two.

[Parsman]

To be honest as someone living in Scotland currently I am not sure why we sholdn't have another referendum on independence in the near future. This is for a number of reasons.

1) There has been a fundamental change in circumstances with Brexit. In fact one of the main arguments used against a Yes vote was that we would be forced to leave the EU. Since Scotland voted to Remain in the EU, independence might be a quicker way back in than to hope the English change their minds.

2) We were promised a more powerful devolved parliament by all the British parties. To be fair I think a big majority of Scots would accept Devo Max but IT WAS NEVER DELIVERED. Emblematic of the way British Governments have treated Scotland for most of my lifetime we are promised the moon and we get its reflection in a puddle.

3) Scottish elections consistently return a majority of parties and votes that back a second referendum. It isn't just the SNP, the Scottish Greens also support Scottish independence and they form a majority in the Scottish Parliament.

There are other arguments but these ought to be enough to allow a referendum to take place. My only quibble with Sturgeon would be the timing but it should probably happen soon.

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by Nessie

It will be interesting to hear from Rolfe, as she has had a bit of a falling out with the SNP leadership under Sturgeon.

I worry independence will come down to personality as much as policy. Farage and BJ appealed to enough people to win Brexit, despite obvious policy issues, such as the Irish border. But, they never appealed in Scotland.

I do not think an independence referendum will happen in 2023.

Wake me up if it really starts to look as if there is a likelihood of this.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Planigale

Absolutely!

The SNP are very centralising. There is now a Scottish police force, fire and rescue service, and ambulance service. The adult social services are being taken out of local authority control and being put into a new National Care Service, by analogy with the NHS. The NHS in Scotland is subject to more direct political direction than it is in England. It will be interesting to see how much the new education reforms shift control of education from local authorities to central government.

For the periphery of Scotland, Scottish devolution has resulted in a reduction in local autonomy. For the islands Edinburgh is nearly as remote as London, and Edinburgh is far more controlling.

There should be similar centralisation in England. Some of the ambulance and police forces are too small to be effective.

[Orphia Nay]

From the article in the OP:

There is "speculation that [Sturgeon] could be a preparing a "consultative" referendum on independence.

This could see proposals for people to be asked a different question to the 2014 referendum's "yes/no" on whether Scotland should become an independent country.

For example, voters could instead be asked if they believed the Scottish government should begin negotiations with the UK government on Scotland leaving the UK.

Some commentators believe this is less likely to be successfully blocked by the UK government through the courts."


So, there may be a referendum, but we don't know what the question will be.

[psionl0]

What would independence mean for Scotland? Would Scotland become a republic or would the Queen still be Queen of Scotland?

Is there a proposed constitution being put out for discussion or is it just a case of "don't worry your pretty little head about the details"?

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

From the article in the OP:

There is "speculation that [Sturgeon] could be a preparing a "consultative" referendum on independence.

...snip...

All such referendums in the UK are consultative.

[SteveAitch]

Originally Posted by psionl0

What would independence mean for Scotland? Would Scotland become a republic or would the Queen still be Queen of Scotland?

Is there a proposed constitution being put out for discussion or is it just a case of "don't worry your pretty little head about the details"?

There's a piece in yesterday's i which deals with some of the points.

AAMOI, 'twas a bugger to find - their web-site is badly structured and the search facility is crap.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by psionl0

What would independence mean for Scotland? Would Scotland become a republic or would the Queen still be Queen of Scotland?

Is there a proposed constitution being put out for discussion or is it just a case of "don't worry your pretty little head about the details"?

IIRC most of the ex-colonies retained the Queen as head of state - at least for a while.

My guess would be that Scotland would follow a similar path, not least because it was their monarchy before it was ours.

[Rolfe]

Really, this is a pointless thread. There is not going to be an independence referendum in 2023, or in 2024 either. This is a simple fact not dependant on the rant that I am not going to write about Nicola Sturgeon's actual motivations and intentions.

Wings has finally got his act together and explained why. He does this much better than I could, so just read it. Catch 2022.

Quote:

So: it is manifestly obvious to anyone remotely sane that even if everything goes as favourably as possible there’s absolutely no chance of delivering a second indyref by next October, or indeed even in 2024. The First Minister is not serious.

This “routemap” is aimed only at the hyper-gullible and blindly faithful (sadly still plentiful in the Yes movement), and those entities who make a cynical profit out of trying to sustain the fantasy. It’s a plan which – by the Scottish Government’s own actions – is both designed and guaranteed to fail.