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Old 4th May 2011, 09:44 AM   #241
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Originally Posted by ehcks View Post
So, was I right? Silver is a bubble? Did I finally predict something, or was it too obvious?
Silver is not in a bubble and it will be seeing a lot more action (in the physical markets at least).

The COMEX can pretty much be considered to be a fraudulent market now that has no relevance on the actual price of silver for delivery.
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Old 4th May 2011, 09:57 AM   #242
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If the silver price falls, it is fake. If it rises, it isn't fake?

Suuuuure . . .

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Old 4th May 2011, 10:00 AM   #243
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I just called my local shop and I can sell at $0.45 under spot and buy at $1.85 over spot for regular silver bullion. So how is the spot price not accurate again? I literally JUST CALLED THEM.
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Old 4th May 2011, 10:06 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
The COMEX can pretty much be considered to be a fraudulent market now that has no relevance on the actual price of silver for delivery.
When the price doesn't do what you expect, it's a conspiracy?

I'm so not surprised.
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Old 4th May 2011, 10:07 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
I just called my local shop and I can sell at $0.45 under spot and buy at $1.85 over spot for regular silver bullion. So how is the spot price not accurate again? I literally JUST CALLED THEM.
Because if they are selling physical that they have on hand for 1.85 over spot they are retarded?

They could sell them on ebay for over 50 right now.

I advise you buy as much as you can.
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Old 4th May 2011, 10:17 AM   #246
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The shop is in on the conspiracy. It is fake silver. Probably stainless steel.

Right?
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Old 4th May 2011, 10:17 AM   #247
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auctions ending within the last few minutes:

2009 American Silver Eagle 1 troy oz. Coin
US $50.05

2011 1oz OUNCE AMERICAN SILVER EAGLE GEM SILVER COINS
US $52.25

2009 silver american eagle .999
US $51.01

1 oz sealed bar .999 fine silver "Scottsdale"
US $53.00

Last edited by michaelsuede; 4th May 2011 at 10:30 AM.
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Old 4th May 2011, 10:19 AM   #248
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
The shop is in on the conspiracy. It is fake silver. Probably stainless steel.

Right?
You tell me why physical is selling for a massive premium over spot then.

Please, I'm all ears.

Why would all the people on ebay pay over 50 when the spot is 39?

I'm excited to hear your explanation oh wise one.
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Old 4th May 2011, 10:36 AM   #249
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Will eBay be a fraud too if coins start closing at prices not high enough for your exciting tale of a market forced down way below its true price by organised crime?

What will be the next authentic price source? Some guy you know whose offer is $60?

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Old 4th May 2011, 10:38 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
Will eBay be a fraud too if coins start closing at prices not high enough for your exciting tale of a market forced down way below its true price by organised crime?

What will be the next authentic price source? Some guy you know whose offer is $60?

So you basically have no answer.

I don't need to justify my position, the market will do that for me.
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Old 4th May 2011, 10:39 AM   #251
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So you basically have no answer.
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Old 4th May 2011, 10:41 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
So you basically have no answer.
I gave an explanation which you summarily ridiculed.

Clearly the market supports what I am saying.
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Old 4th May 2011, 10:43 AM   #253
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Only if you believe post 242. But that's ridiculous IMO. Can you confirm it is your belief?
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Old 4th May 2011, 10:44 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
I gave an explanation which you summarily ridiculed.
... for a reason.
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Old 4th May 2011, 05:02 PM   #255
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Looks like panic is gripping the CME.

CME Margin Hike Is 4th AND 5th - Charting The Parabolic Rise In CME Silver Margin Hikes

Quote:
Remember when earlier we said the CME had hiked silver margins for the 4th time in 8 days? We lied. In fact, what the CME did was to hike margins for the 4th (effective May 5) AND 5th times (effective May 9). That's right, dear reader, in one release, the CME has performed two concurrent margin hikes, which means today's action is the 5th margin hike in 8 days, a previously unheard of event! As of May 9th, the initial margin is $21,600, or 11% of the contract value, while the maintenance is $16,000. This is nothing short of sheer panic at the CME. At this point we can only wonder if the FDR-style precious metals confiscation executive order will come by way of the CME or the FBI. And for everyone asking, below is the chart of recent CME margin hikes in silver.
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Old 4th May 2011, 05:43 PM   #256
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Side note here, I have tracked various stuff on ebay for ten years, one thing is silver. Ebay has always produced considerably higher prices for silver than certainly my very totally reputable coin shop which has set prices over spot.

I've wondered about this and just assumed it was due to a partial built in speculation as to the price at the future moment, when the auction closes. But there still is a premium on ebay over spot, as is seen in the "buy it now" auctions.
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Old 4th May 2011, 07:26 PM   #257
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^ Same here... I don't know how eBay bullion sellers are making any money.
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Old 5th May 2011, 12:34 AM   #258
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So that's it for silver for a while then?

How long does it usually take for the general public to forget about a bubble?
A year or so?
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Old 5th May 2011, 03:21 AM   #259
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment

The historical gold/silver price ratio table shows that for example last year the ratio was 60:1. If silver falls back to that level, it would be around $25 if gold is $1500
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Old 5th May 2011, 03:30 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
I was tempted a month ago to invest, with silver down to 38 today , so glad I didn't.
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Old 5th May 2011, 03:42 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Four trades each with a total volume of 1 oz.?

Probably best to not put too much weight on that. Look for high volume trades instead.
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Old 5th May 2011, 04:13 AM   #262
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
I was tempted a month ago to invest, with silver down to 38 today , so glad I didn't.
37 now and still falling. Got a ways to go yet to get back to a normal gold/silver price ratio.
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Old 5th May 2011, 05:24 AM   #263
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Let's see if it dives all the way to the mid twenties.
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Old 5th May 2011, 06:49 AM   #264
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Can anyone explain to me what margin hikes are, who controls them and why they are implemented?
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Old 5th May 2011, 09:11 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Can anyone explain to me what margin hikes are, who controls them and why they are implemented?
Margin hikes reduce the amount of leverage available for speculators by forcing speculators to use more of their own money to buy whatever it is they are buying.

Consider the market to be like a casino for speculators. Speculators can borrow against the house to increase their bets.

http://www.investopedia.com/universi...in/margin2.asp
Quote:
Here's how it works. Let's say you purchase $20,000 worth of securities by borrowing $10,000 from your brokerage and paying $10,000 yourself. If the market value of the securities drops to $15,000, the equity in your account falls to $5,000 ($15,000 - $10,000 = $5,000). Assuming a maintenance requirement of 25%, you must have $3,750 in equity in your account (25% of $15,000 = $3,750). Thus, you're fine in this situation as the $5,000 worth of equity in your account is greater than the maintenance margin of $3,750. But let's assume the maintenance requirement of your brokerage is 40% instead of 25%. In this case, your equity of $5,000 is less than the maintenance margin of $6,000 (40% of $15,000 = $6,000). As a result, the brokerage may issue you a margin call.
Basically raising margin requirements will dampen market movements.

This also drives down prices when margin requirements are raised because it forces more of the borrowed money out of the market. Speculators who are highly leveraged will be forced to liquidate their positions.

Last edited by michaelsuede; 5th May 2011 at 09:13 AM.
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Old 5th May 2011, 10:21 AM   #266
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Evasion noted on the price of silver.

Bottom line, I can walk into a store and buy silver close to spot right now. There isn't a huge spread on physical silver bullion.
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Old 5th May 2011, 01:43 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Evasion noted on the price of silver.

Bottom line, I can walk into a store and buy silver close to spot right now. There isn't a huge spread on physical silver bullion.
No, you will need to pay 10 - 15 % above spot
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Old 5th May 2011, 01:53 PM   #268
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looks like everyone pulled out of all the markets today.
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Old 5th May 2011, 02:04 PM   #269
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... and bought the US dollar. You know, the one undergoing hyperinflation.
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Old 5th May 2011, 02:17 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
looks like everyone pulled out of all the markets today.
But that's great for you isn't it? More silver for you, and at lower prices.
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Old 5th May 2011, 02:22 PM   #271
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
... and bought the US dollar. You know, the one undergoing hyperinflation.
laugh now.

The Treasury is demanding 2 trillion more in debt just to keep operating until the end of 2012.

This will not end well for the dollar.

Fantasy can only be maintained for a while before reality comes crashing the party.
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Old 5th May 2011, 02:40 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
laugh now.
No, I think I'll laugh at all the conspiracy theories that will
suddenly appear when the precious metals bubble bursts for real.
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Old 5th May 2011, 02:52 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
No, I think I'll laugh at all the conspiracy theories that will
suddenly appear when the precious metals bubble bursts for real.
I'm curious.

How long do you think Bernank can keep rates at near zero before chaos erupts?
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Old 5th May 2011, 03:12 PM   #274
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I don't deal in End-of-the-World-as-we-know-it predictions. Go read Peter Schiff or something for your economic disaster porn.
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Old 5th May 2011, 04:39 PM   #275
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It's not just silver that is taking a beating now. Oil is off 10% too. Commodities in general are falling.

http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e573da6-774...44feabdc0.html
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Old 5th May 2011, 06:44 PM   #276
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
I don't deal in End-of-the-World-as-we-know-it predictions. Go read Peter Schiff or something for your economic disaster porn.
Hahaha....But I'm not aware of any economic disaster porn from Schiff....

Oh, wait, yeah, there was his prediction of the 2008 economic disaster porn.

But it wasn't EOTWAWKI.

Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
It's not just silver that is taking a beating now. Oil is off 10% too. Commodities in general are falling.

http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e573da6-774...44feabdc0.html
I call minor bear run.

Just curious, do you have any stats on volatility of the gold/silver ratio, to support that there is a ratio that tends to be returned to? EG lower volatility when at the "right Ratio", etc.

Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
I'm curious.

How long do you think Bernank can keep rates at near zero before chaos erupts?
Wrong point of view. Chaos, and crises, are OPPORTUNITIES. Never let one go to waste.


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Old 5th May 2011, 06:48 PM   #277
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
No, I think I'll laugh at all the conspiracy theories that will
suddenly appear when the precious metals bubble bursts for real.
It may burst all the way down to $12. That is what I would consider current rock bottom price w/o any speculation priced in.

I am not concerned, BTW. I am guessing it will stop at about $25.
Still buying.
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Old 5th May 2011, 07:07 PM   #278
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
laugh now.

The Treasury is demanding 2 trillion more in debt just to keep operating until the end of 2012.

This will not end well for the dollar.

Fantasy can only be maintained for a while before reality comes crashing the party.
Heh, that 2T would buy a lot of booze. If they didn't buy anything else, it would last quite a while.

Like, we are talking 500 cases of beer for every man, woman, and child. But you know what? Those kids shouldn't get that beer. Pregnant women, no way. And some of those fruity and flaky guys, they ain't getting it. Same with those college types with the patches on their tweedy jackets. Space cadet types that are glued to computer games they already busy. Old folks in nursing homes, they zoned out already.

So like, there is this privileged class of guys and some women too, see. We needs to keep this booze and take care of it. Probably we get 3000 cases each for that 2T.

NOW is this getting interesting?

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Old 5th May 2011, 07:19 PM   #279
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Margin hikes reduce the amount of leverage available for speculators by forcing speculators to use more of their own money to buy whatever it is they are buying.

Consider the market to be like a casino for speculators. Speculators can borrow against the house to increase their bets.

http://www.investopedia.com/universi...in/margin2.asp


Basically raising margin requirements will dampen market movements.

This also drives down prices when margin requirements are raised because it forces more of the borrowed money out of the market. Speculators who are highly leveraged will be forced to liquidate their positions.
Pretty much this. Margin requirements are basically insurance for brokerages for speculators. By raising margin requirements, a firm would have to spend more for less assets.
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Old 5th May 2011, 10:29 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by UWdude View Post
No, you will need to pay 10 - 15 % above spot
Did you miss my post above? I called the shop and asked and posted the results. Hint: it was way less then 10-15% above.
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