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Old 8th April 2011, 12:17 PM   #1
michaelsuede
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Silver Over 40.00 / Real and fake prices

Praise the Bernank for printing money which drives the value of my physical silver holdings higher.

Of course, I have sympathy for the great unwashed who will be wiped out as inflation destroys their meager incomes.

But fear not, the bankers who are currently flipping bonds back to the Fed within a week of their issuance are making a fat payday every POMO day and will continue to live in their shining mansions on the hill.

If you are kind to them, they may feel pitty for you and provide you with handouts and perhaps some rice to feed your families.

Praise Mao, and may the Bernank reign supreme forever.
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Old 8th April 2011, 12:24 PM   #2
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So happy for you
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Old 8th April 2011, 12:27 PM   #3
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When the money is gone(devalued), your silver is going to be worth???
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Old 8th April 2011, 12:28 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Cayvmann View Post
When the money is gone(devalued), your silver is going to be worth???
A lot of real goods and services.

I might be able to feed myself for a few days with a single pre-1946 dime.
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Old 8th April 2011, 12:34 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
A lot of real goods and services.

I might be able to feed myself for a few days with a single pre-1946 dime.
Yes, because things will never get so bad that people won't trade food for shiny objects.
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Old 8th April 2011, 12:58 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
Yes, because things will never get so bad that people won't trade food for shiny objects.
People are trading 40.00 dollars of fiat money for shiny objects right now.

I don't think it is any more of a stretch to trade food for shiny objects when those paper dollars are worthless.

In Zimbabwe, what little remains of the economy functions on the trade of gold.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM
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Old 8th April 2011, 01:19 PM   #7
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Oh yes, Zimbabwe. 'Cause that's where we're headed. All inflation automatically leads to hyperinflation

The hyperinflation in Mugabeland has actually caused them to do business in U.S. Dollars (and Euros, and UK Pounds).
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Old 8th April 2011, 01:35 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
Oh yes, Zimbabwe. 'Cause that's where we're headed. All inflation automatically leads to hyperinflation

The hyperinflation in Mugabeland has actually caused them to do business in U.S. Dollars (and Euros, and UK Pounds).
The International Accounting Standards Board, which describes hyperinflation as "a cumulative inflation rate over three years approaching 100% (26% per annum compounded for three years in a row)"

Commodities markets are currently increasing at about a 22% annual rate, and are accelerating.

We will experience hyperinflation.

There is only one way we would not experience hyperinflation, and that is if the Fed stops printing and the government stops spending.

Neither of those will happen, therefore we will experience hyperinflation.
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Old 8th April 2011, 01:39 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
A lot of real goods and services.

I might be able to feed myself for a few days with a single pre-1946 dime.
Not likely. If the monetary system did collapse so would the economy and no one is going to be willing to give you something useful (food) in exchange for something that is not useful (silver)
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Old 8th April 2011, 01:41 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
The International Accounting Standards Board, which describes hyperinflation as "a cumulative inflation rate over three years approaching 100% (26% per annum compounded for three years in a row)"

Commodities markets are currently increasing at about a 22% annual rate, and are accelerating.

We will experience hyperinflation.

There is only one way we would not experience hyperinflation, and that is if the Fed stops printing and the government stops spending.

Neither of those will happen, therefore we will experience hyperinflation.
Lol so you are saying that if you redefine inflation you can call the current near zero inflation rate hyperinflation.
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Old 8th April 2011, 01:55 PM   #11
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Bought a 100 oz silver bar not that long ago in Nov 2009 at under $18/oz

Should I sell it already
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Old 8th April 2011, 02:02 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Lol so you are saying that if you redefine inflation you can call the current near zero inflation rate hyperinflation.
The Fed redefines inflation by stripping out half of what consumers spend their money on.

Food and energy.

The notion that these should be removed from the core CPI, while housing should take up over 40% of the adustment, is patently ridiculous.

Keep laughing.

In the end, the markets will have the last laugh.

As will I.
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Old 8th April 2011, 02:04 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Frank Newgent View Post
Bought a 100 oz silver bar not that long ago in Nov 2009 at under $18/oz

Should I sell it already
No, silver is about to undergo an exponential increase in price.

I think silver has the chops to actually beat gold in price because it has been so severely manipulated and has much higher industrial usage rates.

I think it is entirely plausible that we could see silver around a thousand in fairly short order.

Right now we will see silver price increases accelerating on an almost daily basis as JP Morgan has no silver left to manipulate the markets with.

Their naked shorts are about to come unwound.
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Old 8th April 2011, 02:07 PM   #14
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I sure hope not. That would annihilate the sterling silver jewelry business.
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Old 8th April 2011, 02:10 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Frank Newgent View Post
I sure hope not. That would annihilate the sterling silver jewelry business.
lol
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Old 8th April 2011, 02:12 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
I think it is entirely plausible that we could see silver around a thousand in fairly short order.
And if we don't, it's because the Jews manipulate it, right?
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Old 8th April 2011, 02:19 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Frank Newgent View Post
Bought a 100 oz silver bar not that long ago in Nov 2009 at under $18/oz

Should I sell it already
In Apr of 09 I bought 300 shares of BMO for $31, its now selling for $65 has paid me $1800 in dividends and should pay me at least $900 more every year. Should I sell it already?
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Old 8th April 2011, 02:22 PM   #18
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Didn't you forget a smilie?
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Old 8th April 2011, 02:29 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
In Apr of 09 I bought 300 shares of BMO for $31, its now selling for $65 has paid me $1800 in dividends and should pay me at least $900 more every year. Should I sell it already?
I have some shiny trinkets. Wanna trade?
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Old 8th April 2011, 02:33 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
In Apr of 09 I bought 300 shares of BMO for $31, its now selling for $65 has paid me $1800 in dividends and should pay me at least $900 more every year. Should I sell it already?
Precious metals and hard commodities always out perform the market during a hyper-inflationary scenario.

I would recommend selling the stock while it still has value.

Historically we know this to be true in virtually every instance.
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Old 8th April 2011, 02:42 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
I have some shiny trinkets. Wanna trade?
Shiny is sooo much better then a dividend check every 3 months!

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Old 8th April 2011, 02:57 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Shiny is sooo much better then a dividend check every 3 months!
You just heard that. Historically it's true in virtually every instance.
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Old 8th April 2011, 06:42 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
Yes, because things will never get so bad that people won't trade food for shiny objects.
If that time ever occurs, it will in all likelihood be preceded by a longer duration where people will refuse to trade food for pieces of paper or plastic. The value of gold and silver depend on the existence of civilization as much as fiat and electronic money do, but they insure against the loss (and sometimes dramatic loss) of purchasing power that has occured and will occur within the context of a civilized, if financially unstable, society.
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Old 8th April 2011, 06:43 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
A lot of real goods and services.

I might be able to feed myself for a few days with a single pre-1946 dime.
Hey, don't knock the dimes minted from 1946-1964, either!
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Old 8th April 2011, 07:01 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
The Fed redefines inflation by stripping out half of what consumers spend their money on.

Food and energy.

The notion that these should be removed from the core CPI, while housing should take up over 40% of the adustment, is patently ridiculous.
I'm afraid it's far worse than this. It's easy enough to just look at headline inflation to presumably capture food and energy prices, but that isn't the problem. The problem is that the current formula which uses hedonic regression to measure "inflation" is several-hundred basis points lower than the results given by the pre-Clinton era CPI formula, as documented by John Williams at http://www.shadowstats.com. This is how economists can, with a straight face, claim inflation is low and fool people like iomiller, not because of core vs. headline.
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Old 10th April 2011, 08:48 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
....John Williams at http://www.shadowstats.com. This is how economists can, with a straight face, claim inflation is low and fool people like iomiller, not because of core vs. headline.
Williams has done absolutely outstanding work in providing a credible, carefully researched alternative set of numbers (including the M3 number) against a generally increasing propagandic set of government supplied numbers.

BUT I'm in favor of most of the people being fooled most of the time, so I like the government numbers.

PSST: let's not tell anyone about Shadowstats.com, okay? We'll just keep it a little secret.

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Old 10th April 2011, 08:53 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
... The value of gold and silver depend on the existence of civilization as much as fiat and electronic money do, but they insure against the loss (and sometimes dramatic loss) of purchasing power that has occured and will occur within the context of a civilized, if financially unstable, society.
But gold and silver always were intermediate products in the context of bartering exchange, and today other intermediate products are dominent. Gold and silver will never return to this status.

For example, today even currency isn't really used. Electronic equivalents are. The question of relevance is what backs the unit of exchange presented.

So for example, suppose there was a major currency collapse. Visa would move to back it's cards with some commodity based basket, then the card presented would be good. And that could happen so fast you couldn't blink your eyes twice before it was in place. No gold or silver is necessary, just the elimination of governments from the concept of money.

It's the electronic equivalents which have created these possibilities, but they are not yet recognized for their potentials.
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Old 14th April 2011, 03:23 PM   #28
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Silver over 42 today.
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Old 14th April 2011, 03:32 PM   #29
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Wouldn't it be funny if precious metals were in a bubble state, like houses were recently, and dotcoms were before that?

Gonna have a nice laugh if/when the price tanks.
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Old 14th April 2011, 03:39 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by ehcks View Post
Wouldn't it be funny if precious metals were in a bubble state, like houses were recently, and dotcoms were before that?

Gonna have a nice laugh if/when the price tanks.
There is no bubble in metals.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeTYO5ViN9s
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Old 14th April 2011, 03:40 PM   #31
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So you're saying a 100oz silver bar is soon going to be worth $100k US?

I have my doubts
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Old 14th April 2011, 03:40 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
So you're saying a 100oz silver bar is soon going to be worth $100k US?

I have my doubts
That's funny.

Because I have those same doubts about the dollar.

I think MY doubts are more well founded than YOUR doubts.
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Old 14th April 2011, 03:56 PM   #33
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I have a bag of 1000 silver dimes.

At one point, each dime was worth 10 cents.

Today, each dime is worth over 3 dollars.

((300 - 10) / 10) *100 = 2900% increase

(($1000 - $42) / $42) * 100 = 2280% increase

I don't see why silver can't go to 1000 since the dollar has already lost 96.7% of its value.

Most of that lost value has occurred in the last 40 years. We will see an acceleration of value lost for several reasons. Not the least of which is JPMs fraudulent naked shorts and the Bernank's printing press.

Last edited by michaelsuede; 14th April 2011 at 04:10 PM.
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Old 14th April 2011, 04:20 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
I have a bag of 1000 silver dimes.

At one point, each dime was worth 10 cents.

Today, each dime is worth over 3 dollars.

((300 - 10) / 10) *100 = 2900% increase

(($1000 - $42) / $42) * 100 = 2280% increase

I don't see why silver can't go to 1000 since the dollar has already lost 96.7% of its value.

Most of that lost value has occurred in the last 40 years. We will see an acceleration of value lost for several reasons. Not the least of which is JPMs fraudulent naked shorts and the Bernank's printing press.
For a whopping ~4.5% compounded return. Adjusted for inflation.

You'd be way better off owning, say, Berkshire Hathaway. Or a friggin utility that pays dividends.
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Old 14th April 2011, 04:24 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by roger View Post
For a whopping ~4.5% compounded return. Adjusted for inflation.

You'd be way better off owning, say, Berkshire Hathaway. Or a friggin utility that pays dividends.
This is true under normal circumstances.

However, we are no longer dealing with normal circumstances.

We are dealing with an out of control central bank and government.

In those situations, metals will out-perform such market gains.

They always do.
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Old 14th April 2011, 04:32 PM   #36
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Metals do not 'perform'. They do no useful work by themselves. They are not productive. Their prices are based on supply and demand. Admittedly demand rises due to hysteria during inflation, but it also collapses. Historically silver has been nearly flat except for that super brief bubble/collapse a few decades ago. It falls back to flat. It always does. (because of that aforementioned 'it does not produce' point).
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Old 14th April 2011, 04:34 PM   #37
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10 year return on silver:
april 14 2001: 4.38
april 14 2011: 42.20

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A)
Apr 16, 2001 64,200.00
Apr 13, 2011 121,227.00

Which would you rather own?
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Old 14th April 2011, 04:35 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by roger View Post
Metals do not 'perform'. They do no useful work by themselves. They are not productive. Their prices are based on supply and demand. Admittedly demand rises due to hysteria during inflation, but it also collapses. Historically silver has been nearly flat except for that super brief bubble/collapse a few decades ago. It falls back to flat. It always does. (because of that aforementioned 'it does not produce' point).
Metals preform when the dollar fails.

The dollar is failing.
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Old 14th April 2011, 04:38 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
10 year return on silver:
april 14 2001: 4.38
april 14 2011: 42.20

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A)
Apr 16, 2001 64,200.00
Apr 13, 2011 121,227.00

Which would you rather own?
Berkshire Hathaway.
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May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into and above the clouds. - Edward Abbey

Climb the mountains and get their good tidings.
Nature's peace will flow into you as sunshine flows into trees. The winds will blow their own freshness into you, and the storms their energy, while cares will drop off like autumn leaves. - John Muir
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Old 14th April 2011, 04:39 PM   #40
michaelsuede
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I predict just a few months from now, I will dredge up this post and LOL @ 40.00 silver.

It will be a thing of a by-gone era.

Like nickel gum-ball machines.
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