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Tags russia , ukraine

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Old 31st March 2023, 05:38 AM   #3161
Drewbot
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Is it really? How do you know? It doesn't say so, only "Russia's losses" of "troops". Casualties, including "disabled from injury", are "losses".
The Ukraine MOD publishes an update every day. They refer to them as 'Eliminated'. https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/...613108224?s=20

This one tends to have the same numbers but refers to them as 'liquidated'.
https://twitter.com/Seveerity/status...417414144?s=20
(i can't find a recent tally of this one because I don't know who publishes it, although the numbers always match the Ukraine MOD, which I believe that Red Cross type symbol is referencing)

This one shows the same number of Killed, and gives an estimate for wounded, which is clearly just a 3X multiplier. But it locks in the idea that 170,000 is the number of KIA. https://minusrus.com/

I would like to add to that I have read many accounts, again by Ukrainian commentators, including some on the front lines, that the KIA are much easier to count because the Russians aren't going out of their way to collect the bodies after a battle.
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Old 31st March 2023, 05:57 AM   #3162
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Suggest following Oryx. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/
It is a netherlands based site devoted to cataloging equpment losses during the war.

Thus far they have for Russia
Total of 9923, of which: destroyed: 6394, damaged: 301, abandoned: 384, captured: 2844
It then breaks it down by model, and lists each documentation.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html

For Ukraine it has Total of- 3146, of which: destroyed: 2013, damaged: 167, abandoned: 85, captured: 878
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...ukrainian.html
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Old 31st March 2023, 06:35 AM   #3163
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Regarding propaganda from the U side, one UT news channel reported R drones were hitting artillery positions . It seems a bit more frequently than they want to say.

But the next comment was the guns are being fixed and continue in service. They worry for the ammo supply.
The men firing those guns seem expendable on both sides. No mention of them past the word "heros".

The reports coming from the fronts are all being manipulated by all sides to sway international opinion on whom needs help to win. So far there has been little that has been consistent on the movements in the fronts even.
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Old 31st March 2023, 06:36 AM   #3164
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Originally Posted by 8enotto View Post
Regarding propaganda from the U side, one UT news channel reported R drones were hitting artillery positions . It seems a bit more frequently than they want to say.

But the next comment was the guns are being fixed and continue in service. They worry for the ammo supply.
The men firing those guns seem expendable on both sides. No mention of them past the word "heros".

The reports coming from the fronts are all being manipulated by all sides to sway international opinion on whom needs help to win. So far there has been little that has been consistent on the movements in the fronts even.
Good, pointless, "bothsides" ramble there.
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Old 31st March 2023, 07:08 AM   #3165
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
The thing is that really all you optimists are making up **** here while trusting blindly (yes, blindly: "I don't see") the UA high command.
There ARE people who DO see a little bit more - I mentioned earlier sources in the US military leadership, respected military analysts having inspected Bakhmut on the ground, who have advised against holding on account of diminishing ratios. Now, admittedly, that was already some weeks ago, or so it feels, and things may have changed. Then again, it may also be that these sources simply have shut up in order not to further compromise an already "difficult" situation, in loyalty to the UA leadership.
Bottom line is: We just don't know - and I am skeptic. The argument of the optimists really keeps boiling down to "RU always super stupid, UA perfectly fail-free, therefore Russia bad, Ukraine great". Which is circular.
I too am a skeptic. I'm skeptical of Muscovite claim of sense in their assault on Bakhmut.

But I must have missed the part where respected military analysts inspected Bakhmut on the ground and published their findings. Do you happen to remember the post in which you cited them?
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Old 31st March 2023, 07:19 AM   #3166
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
You mean you hope for #1.

The best scenario all winter long was for Ukraine to motivate Russia to attack, so Ukraine could enjoy the attrition advantage of defending. This obviously worked well at Vulhedar and Avdiivka, may have worked okay in the Kremmina/Svatove direction, and worked reasonably well in Bakhmut for quite some time. Until, I presume, it no longer did.

What is better then: To stop losses, or to keep suffering losses?
#2 is a good outcome then for Ukraine.
#3 would also be a good outcome, perhaps an even better one. I am not sure it is so unlikely, for the Russian goal is to take all of Donetsk oblast eventually, and for that they need, at some point, to go for Kramatorsk, not far West of Bakhmut. So why should they not press on?

#4 is just one of countless conceivable counter-offensive options. We know that a UA offensive is coming. On Bakhmut? Unlikely indeed - it is, at this point, not an important waypoint, at least not as long as they prevail up near Kremmina. So I don't know why you listed this option, then stopped listing so many more.
Because that is the crux of the matter: Ukraine wants to preserve complete, rested well-trained and well-equipped units for the cominf offensive. Which is why sending any well-trained and well-equipped units to Bakhmut is unfortunate.
No, I hope for #5: Russian forces collapse and retreat in disorder to the border.

#1 involves people dying on both sides but may be the best realistic option for Ukraine. If Ukraine withdraws, Russia will take the city and then stop to regroup. This is a bad option for Ukraine because it allows Russia the breathing space to reorganise, reequip and train some of their raw recruits.

Everybody thinks a new Ukraine offensive is coming soon. If this is the case, it helps Ukraine very much if Russia is still feeding resources into taking Bakhmut. If they've taken the city, it gives them the opportunity to leave a much smaller defensive force behind and use the rest of them to defend against the Ukrainian offensive wherever it comes from.

It is my opinion that Ukrainian commanders have weighed up the merits of continuing to defend Bakhmut as opposed to withdrawing to more defensible positions and have concluded that it hurts Russia more than it hurts Ukraine to continue defending.
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Old 31st March 2023, 07:22 AM   #3167
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
The thing is that really all you optimists are making up **** here while trusting blindly (yes, blindly: "I don't see") the UA high command.
Now you are straight up lying. What is your problem?

Quote:
There ARE people who DO see a little bit more - I mentioned earlier sources in the US military leadership, respected military analysts having inspected Bakhmut on the ground, who have advised against holding on account of diminishing ratios.
Wait a minute: So you're saying US generals have personally inspected the entire Bachmut frontline? Or even part of it? Of course they haven't.

In reality the "respected analysts" you reference are basing their opinions on the exact kind of information that's available to everyone in this thread.

Quote:
But mainly I suspect that Zelenskyy has made Bakhmut a personal issue: He courageously visited it while the battle already raged hotly, and essentially promised that it would never fall, so fall it must not, or else cake in face.
Based on what exactly? Do you have a close confidential source whispering in your ear or is it just more baseless speculation?
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Old 31st March 2023, 07:54 AM   #3168
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
...
Everybody thinks a new Ukraine offensive is coming soon. If this is the case, it helps Ukraine very much if Russia is still feeding resources into taking Bakhmut. If they've taken the city, it gives them the opportunity to leave a much smaller defensive force behind and use the rest of them to defend against the Ukrainian offensive wherever it comes from.
...
As it turned out, the intensity of Russian fighting in Bakhmut has diminished lately, and this is attributed by some as them saving and regrouping resources to prepare for the coming Ukrainian offensive - while still managing to keep UA units pinned down in the Bakhmut direction.
You see, both sides see and know what they are doing, despite the constant painting of cartoons in this thread.
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Old 31st March 2023, 07:55 AM   #3169
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
As it turned out, the intensity of Russian fighting in Bakhmut has diminished lately, and this is attributed by some as them saving and regrouping resources to prepare for the coming Ukrainian offensive - while still managing to keep UA units pinned down in the Bakhmut direction.
You see, both sides see and know what they are doing, despite the constant painting of cartoons in this thread.
Yes, it's easier for Russia to disengage whilst keeping Ukraine engaged there than the converse
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Old 31st March 2023, 08:25 AM   #3170
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I too am a skeptic. I'm skeptical of Muscovite claim of sense in their assault on Bakhmut.

But I must have missed the part where respected military analysts inspected Bakhmut on the ground and published their findings. Do you happen to remember the post in which you cited them?
Sure do - #2723 dated March 6th:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...n#post14022744

Also #2809:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...0#post14027690

Also #2773:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...5#post14024805

Here is a UK MoD intelligence update of March 7, describing the problems that UA was facing in Bakhmut (...degrade forces on both sides..."):
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...90074253066240
Previously, on March 4, the situation was descibed in bleak terms: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...17276126380033
On March 11, the same MoD sees UA units still in a "vulnerable" position: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...45333282291712
And notes on March 16 that Wagner gained a tactical success there: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...58087517536256
(However, they assess on March 17 that Russian forces have been so depleted they cannot sustain even local attacks https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...20096134062081

And then there was none other than US SecDef Lloyd Austin who...
Quote:
said on March 6 that the fall of Bakhmut would not be a significant setback for the Ukrainian military, Reuters reported.

"I think it is more of a symbolic value than it is strategic and operational value," Austin, as cited by Reuters, told journalists during his trip to Jordan.
https://kyivindependent.com/us-defen...rategic-value/
Which was widely interpreted as a top level advise to Zelenskyy to seriously consider gettig out of there.

You're welcome.
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Old 31st March 2023, 08:49 AM   #3171
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Suggest following Oryx. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/
It is a netherlands based site devoted to cataloging equpment losses during the war.

Thus far they have for Russia
Total of 9923, of which: destroyed: 6394, damaged: 301, abandoned: 384, captured: 2844
It then breaks it down by model, and lists each documentation.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html

For Ukraine it has Total of- 3146, of which: destroyed: 2013, damaged: 167, abandoned: 85, captured: 878
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...ukrainian.html
Thanks for that. I keep seeing it quoted on Suchomimus videos but didn't know where to find it. I shall bookmark.
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Old 31st March 2023, 09:20 AM   #3172
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https://www.egyptindependent.com/mos...roposed-truce/

Russia rejects truce suggested by Belarus, whereby all military activity and movement stops cold. Russia says they cannot comply as it will prevent them from continuing their "special military operation".
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Old 31st March 2023, 10:30 AM   #3173
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
https://www.egyptindependent.com/mos...roposed-truce/

Russia rejects truce suggested by Belarus, whereby all military activity and movement stops cold. Russia says they cannot comply as it will prevent them from continuing their "special military operation".
Russia has certainly provided ample evidence that their operation is indeed "special". Nobody has ever seen anything quite like it.
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Old 31st March 2023, 11:33 AM   #3174
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Russia has certainly provided ample evidence that their operation is indeed "special". Nobody has ever seen anything quite like it.
First Chechen war?
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Old 31st March 2023, 12:24 PM   #3175
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
First Chechen war?
Ohh, good one. Hell, the Second Chechen War was pretty bad too, although Russia eventually won that one.
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Old 31st March 2023, 12:32 PM   #3176
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
First Chechen war?
Maybe, but on a much smaller scale. Did not have the attention of the world that Ukraine does.
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Old 31st March 2023, 01:22 PM   #3177
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
...
Russia rejects truce suggested by Belarus, whereby all military activity and movement stops cold. Russia says they cannot comply as it will prevent them from continuing their "special military operation".
That's the trouble with all calls for a truce and negotiations now or soon:

As long as both sides think they can gain something by continuing to fight, neither can be convinced to negotiate.
Even if only one side feels they still have something to gain by fighting on, there cannot be negotiations in earnest.

Wars end in one of two ways:
  1. One side wins, the other loses: Winner dictates peace
  2. Both sides get exhausted and realize a stalemate cannot be broken: Negotiations ensue

Lukashenka proposing negotiations now can mean two things: He either thinks Belarus will end up losing more if the war continues (either because Ukraine wins, or because Russia hurts Belarus; or both), or he thinks no one is going to take such a proposal serious anyway but he can win brownie points by sounding mellow and peacenik.
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Old 31st March 2023, 01:23 PM   #3178
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Russia has certainly provided ample evidence that their operation is indeed "special". Nobody has ever seen anything quite like it.
I can't agree there. A bad as the this fiasco is, there have been worse.
Napoleon's invasion of Russia comes to mind....
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Old 31st March 2023, 02:14 PM   #3179
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I can't agree there. A bad as the this fiasco is, there have been worse.
Napoleon's invasion of Russia comes to mind....
I doubt that Napoleon or any other Frenchman of the day described that invasion as a "special military operation".

I guess I needed to spell out - Nobody has ever seen anything quite like itfrom the Russians. Except maybe Chechnya as above.
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Old 31st March 2023, 02:20 PM   #3180
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Originally Posted by MarkCorrigan View Post
Ohh, good one. Hell, the Second Chechen War was pretty bad too, although Russia eventually won that one.
Is that the one where the Russians gassed a movie theater full of Russians in Russia?
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Old 31st March 2023, 02:28 PM   #3181
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Is that the one where the Russians gassed a movie theater full of Russians in Russia?
I believe so, yes.
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Old 31st March 2023, 08:25 PM   #3182
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Good, pointless, "bothsides" ramble there.
While I am all for Ukraine to regain control of all it's territory the "news" sources are unreliable. At best.

Just trying to follow the changes on the map doesn't have one consistent answer.
I don't expect either side to reveal plans to armchair spectators like us but damn, nothing but " the battles continue" can be confirmed even a week later.

Putin's propaganda is obvious, the rest are hard at it too but the game is trying to figure out who it's aimed at.
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Old 31st March 2023, 10:57 PM   #3183
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Doesn't matter. Putin abrogates any treaty he doesn't like as soon as abiding by it becomes inconvenient.
Oh, I very much disagree!
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Old 31st March 2023, 11:11 PM   #3184
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Originally Posted by Waffle Slayer View Post
Oh, I very much disagree!
on what grounds ?
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Old 1st April 2023, 02:16 AM   #3185
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To poke at Bakhmut again, it sounds like we also have another tune being sung by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley.

Quote:
“The Ukrainians are doing a very effective area defense that is proven to be very costly to the Russians. For about the last 20, 21 days, the Russians have not made any progress whatsoever in and around Bahkmut,” he said. “So it's a slaughter-fest for the Russians. They're getting hammered in the vicinity of Bahkmut and the Ukrainians have fought very, very well.”
I'm a bit doubtful about the narrative being spun here, but it's likely worthy of note.


Also, to poke back at Bucha, well...

Quote:
More than 9,000 war crimes were committed during the 33-day occupation of Bucha. Over 270 a day. More than 1400 civilians were killed. Many of them were subjected to torture. There were 37 children among the dead. 52 children were injured.
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Old 1st April 2023, 05:51 AM   #3186
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And we only know about the crimes in Bucha because it was taken back by the Ukrainians. Think about all those places that the Ukrainians still have not liberated.
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Old 1st April 2023, 02:42 PM   #3187
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
As it turned out, the intensity of Russian fighting in Bakhmut has diminished lately, and this is attributed by some as them saving and regrouping resources to prepare for the coming Ukrainian offensive - while still managing to keep UA units pinned down in the Bakhmut direction.
You see, both sides see and know what they are doing, despite the constant painting of cartoons in this thread.
Well that's one explanation. Another is that the Russians are running out of offensive capability.

If your explanation were correct, it would make more sense for Ukraine to withdraw from Bakhmut. They are not doing that, so I'm going to believe my explanation provisionally.

One thing we all need to accept is that the commanders of the two sides are likely much better informed than any of us. Any hypothesis we come up with has to take that into account. Given that, and assuming that the Ukrainian command is not totally stupid, what's your explanation for their unwillingness to retreat from a city that nobody thinks has any strategic importance except Vladimir Putin?
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Old 1st April 2023, 03:18 PM   #3188
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
...or he thinks no one is going to take such a proposal serious anyway but he can win brownie points by sounding mellow and peacenik.

Really, any third power that calls for a cease fire or negotiations, but doesn't have the power to compel both sides to the table, is trolling at least a little for good publicity. Until both Ukraine and Russia want to talk, no talks will take place. Even if the West threatens to pull its support if Ukraine doesn't come to the table, that won't matter if Russia wants to keep fighting.
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Old 1st April 2023, 03:23 PM   #3189
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Also, to poke back at Bucha, well...

Quote:
More than 9,000 war crimes were committed during the 33-day occupation of Bucha. Over 270 a day. More than 1400 civilians were killed. Many of them were subjected to torture. There were 37 children among the dead. 52 children were injured.

And that's reason enough for Ukraine to keep holding at Bakhmut, even if a purely numerical argument can be made for pulling out. There's a moral imperative at work, to keep the Russians as far as possible from any other still-Ukrainian held towns. Every mile the Russians advance exposes more Ukrainians to the abuses noted above.

I won't say it's worth paying "any price" to hold that back, but it's certainly worth paying a high price for it.
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Old 1st April 2023, 06:20 PM   #3190
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Meanwhile, on the eastern side of Russia...
Originally Posted by MSN
...As Russia’s dependency on Beijing deepens, Putin and his successors need not expect any favours from the Chinese Communist Party. Only in February, Beijing issued a decree that eight Russian cities in east Siberia, which China claims as its own, must be marked on international maps by their Chinese names, including Vladivostok. Xi’s eyes may focus increasingly on this long-running territorial dispute and a self-eviscerated Russia may not be able to do anything about it.
I don't see China giving Russia any weapons that may end up being used against them.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...5052761f&ei=14
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Old 2nd April 2023, 12:13 AM   #3191
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
... Given that, and assuming that the Ukrainian command is not totally stupid, ...
Do you assume the same for the Russian command?

Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
... what's your explanation for their unwillingness to retreat from a city that nobody thinks has any strategic importance except Vladimir Putin?
I've said it before, more than once: Macho bragging rights. Zelenskyy promised, by way of a courageous personal visit, Bakhmut would not fall, so not fall it absolutely must, because Z. said so (not because it is the smartest strategic objective).
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Old 2nd April 2023, 03:46 AM   #3192
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Do you assume the same for the Russian command?
Yes as a rule. However, there are a number of reasons why the situation is not symmetrical.

1. Historically, Ukrainian commanders have shown better tactical understanding than their Russian counterparts

2. Russian intelligence (information gathering, not brainpower) is likely to be less good than Ukrainian intelligence meaning Ukraine probably has a better grasp of the real situation.

3. Russian commanders have to answer to Vladimir Putin. His goal is to take Bakhmut at seemingly any cost and therefore that becomes their goal.

Quote:
I've said it before, more than once: Macho bragging rights. Zelenskyy promised, by way of a courageous personal visit, Bakhmut would not fall, so not fall it absolutely must, because Z. said so (not because it is the smartest strategic objective).
You have to ask why would he do that. He knows it has little strategic importance. Ukraine has had to retreat from other bigger more important cities in the past without damaging him politically, so why pick this town? To me, it seems more rational that the meat grinder that is Bakhmut benefits Ukraine more than Russia. That's the explanation I am going with until evidence surfaces to the contrary. It fits the facts better than "Ukraine is feeding its army into a meat grinder to satisfy the ego of its president".
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Old 2nd April 2023, 04:51 AM   #3193
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
Yes as a rule. However, there are a number of reasons why the situation is not symmetrical.

1. Historically, Ukrainian commanders have shown better tactical understanding than their Russian counterparts

2. Russian intelligence (information gathering, not brainpower) is likely to be less good than Ukrainian intelligence meaning Ukraine probably has a better grasp of the real situation.

3. Russian commanders have to answer to Vladimir Putin. His goal is to take Bakhmut at seemingly any cost and therefore that becomes their goal.



You have to ask why would he do that. He knows it has little strategic importance. Ukraine has had to retreat from other bigger more important cities in the past without damaging him politically, so why pick this town? To me, it seems more rational that the meat grinder that is Bakhmut benefits Ukraine more than Russia. That's the explanation I am going with until evidence surfaces to the contrary. It fits the facts better than "Ukraine is feeding its army into a meat grinder to satisfy the ego of its president".
Or it’s a momentum thing. Yes they lost ground previously (everyone expected them to) but then they started to gain it back, gaining momentum. Losing ground now could be seen as reversing that and affecting morale on both sides.
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Old 2nd April 2023, 12:54 PM   #3194
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An explosion in a St Petersburg cafe has killed prominent Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky

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An explosion in a St Petersburg cafe has killed prominent Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky, Russia's Interior Ministry has confirmed.

At least 25 people were injured in the bomb blast at Street Food Bar No 1.

Videos posted on social media show an explosion and injured people on the street. It is not clear who was responsible for the blast.

Vladlen Tatarsky (real name Maxim Fomin) was a vocal supporter of Russia's war in Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65155075
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Old 2nd April 2023, 01:13 PM   #3195
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
An explosion in a St Petersburg cafe has killed prominent Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky




https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65155075
I like this take on it.

Originally Posted by EACLucifer post_id=145622 time=1680464476 user_id=1176
Career violent criminal and Kremlin propagandist Vladlen Tatarsky died after contracting a sudden case of exploding. A truly vile individual, he advocated for attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in the hope that it would cripple the health system and thus cause the deaths of Ukrainians. He also called for Ukrainians to be killed en masse and Ukraine to be looted. He was also quite closely tied to Wagner Group and Prigozhin. Prior to working for the Kremlin, he was a bank robber.

Reportedly he was given a gift of a statuette into which had been placed a significant quantity of TNT.
https://scrutable.science/viewtopic....145622#p145622
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Old 2nd April 2023, 01:21 PM   #3196
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
Yes as a rule. However, there are a number of reasons why the situation is not symmetrical.

1. Historically, Ukrainian commanders have shown better tactical understanding than their Russian counterparts

2. Russian intelligence (information gathering, not brainpower) is likely to be less good than Ukrainian intelligence meaning Ukraine probably has a better grasp of the real situation.

3. Russian commanders have to answer to Vladimir Putin. His goal is to take Bakhmut at seemingly any cost and therefore that becomes their goal.



You have to ask why would he do that. He knows it has little strategic importance. Ukraine has had to retreat from other bigger more important cities in the past without damaging him politically, so why pick this town? To me, it seems more rational that the meat grinder that is Bakhmut benefits Ukraine more than Russia. That's the explanation I am going with until evidence surfaces to the contrary. It fits the facts better than "Ukraine is feeding its army into a meat grinder to satisfy the ego of its president".

This is somewhat similar to the response I was about to make.

It isn't that Putin is stupid, though. It's that he is demented. He cares nothing for the welfare of his troops. (Mebbe even the opposite, he sees an opportunity to rid himself of undesirable ... to him, of course ... elements in his dominion.) You are correct. His ego cannot deal with the concept that he might be failing anywhere in any way. So standing his ground is an inevitable result. He cares nothing about the cost.

But more than that, I don't think that rational thought enters into the Putin equation at all. And, as you point out, none of his subordinates, especially his field commanders, are going to risk their own necks to question him. They aren't the ones being used as fodder.
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Old 2nd April 2023, 07:09 PM   #3197
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
This is somewhat similar to the response I was about to make.

It isn't that Putin is stupid, though. It's that he is demented. He cares nothing for the welfare of his troops. (Mebbe even the opposite, he sees an opportunity to rid himself of undesirable ... to him, of course ... elements in his dominion.) You are correct. His ego cannot deal with the concept that he might be failing anywhere in any way. So standing his ground is an inevitable result. He cares nothing about the cost.

But more than that, I don't think that rational thought enters into the Putin equation at all. And, as you point out, none of his subordinates, especially his field commanders, are going to risk their own necks to question him. They aren't the ones being used as fodder.

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Old 2nd April 2023, 11:30 PM   #3198
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
This is somewhat similar to the response I was about to make.

It isn't that Putin is stupid, though. It's that he is demented. He cares nothing for the welfare of his troops. (Mebbe even the opposite, he sees an opportunity to rid himself of undesirable ... to him, of course ... elements in his dominion.) You are correct. His ego cannot deal with the concept that he might be failing anywhere in any way. So standing his ground is an inevitable result. He cares nothing about the cost.

But more than that, I don't think that rational thought enters into the Putin equation at all. And, as you point out, none of his subordinates, especially his field commanders, are going to risk their own necks to question him. They aren't the ones being used as fodder.
I disagree slightly.

I think Putin realises that his fate is tied to that of the invasion, but also that his potential successors are engaged in Ukraine. So weakening them is also good.
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Old 3rd April 2023, 01:46 AM   #3199
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Another excellent Youtube video from Perun, this time about air power.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
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Old 3rd April 2023, 02:08 AM   #3200
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I disagree slightly.

I think Putin realises that his fate is tied to that of the invasion, but also that his potential successors are engaged in Ukraine. So weakening them is also good.
To expand on this, I think Putin is a gambler, and he's made a mistake, which he realises, but he's still rational (and indifferent to anything except his personal interest - and possibly his offspring). It's just that the Ukrainian military is not a threat to him, although the war might be via internal Russian politics, so seemingly irrational decisions might be made for internal reasons not immediate military reasons.
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