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Tags Russia issues , Russia-Ukraine relations , Russia-Ukraine war , Ukraine issues , vladimir putin , Volodymyr Zelenskiy

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Old 10th May 2022, 11:27 PM   #3201
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Of course the fact that now, many days into the operation, finally infrastructure gets bombed, might have something to do with the "heavy weapons" the rule-based rainbow feel-goods are sending. Just an idea.
Enabling the Ukrainians to set the Russians back was kind of the plan. Some of us are glad it seems to be working.
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Old 10th May 2022, 11:40 PM   #3202
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Of course the fact that now, many days into the operation, finally infrastructure gets bombed, might have something to do with the "heavy weapons" the rule-based rainbow feel-goods are sending. Just an idea.
Any evidence?
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Old 10th May 2022, 11:45 PM   #3203
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
In classic Master Strategy Tactics that were PLANNED FROM THE BEGINNING Russia has pulled out of all areas North of Kharkiv west of the Siverskyi Donests river.


Ukrainian forces have reached the Russian border just west of the river and are moving north in the other areas north of the city.

Donbas is still a grind, but Ukraine appears to have won the battle of Kharkiv.

This is so strange. CE's super-truthy and reliable notatallPutinfanfiction site assured us of this:

Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Just wondering how reliable this analysis turned out
Quote:
The Ukrainian soldiers can only dig in, keep their heads down and hope to not receive a direct hit. Their artillery is gone. They have no way left to respond to the fire. After a few days of this the Russian troops will be able to roll them up with little difficulties.
One of these things is not like the other, unless somehow the Ukrainians are tunnelling their way to the Russian border.
I must say, the quality of pro-Russian propaganda is pitiful, much like the way their supposedly world-class military has been revealed to be woefully inadequate. I thought the Russians were supposed to be good at propaganda too? Moreover, how many times does CE have to post something totally untrue before realising the sources cited are just bilge?
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Old 11th May 2022, 12:36 AM   #3204
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
An interesting thread about Ukrainian artillery tactics. if this is indeed the case then it makes the discussions about counter battery fire a lot different.
I'd like dudalb's take on this, as that Twitter account seems pretty mixed. He asserts with certainty things that are sometimes correct and sometimes at variance with known experts.

And dudalb has artillery experience, if I remember correctly.
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Old 11th May 2022, 01:38 AM   #3205
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Patron the Jack Russell Terrier has risen to stardom in Ukraine for his tireless efforts in trying to sniff out every single bomb that Russian forces have planted in Ukraine. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Patron has safely demined more than 200 bombs. Now he’s being recognized for his valiant efforts in keeping the people, and animals, of Ukraine as safe as he can. Inside Edition Digital’s Stephanie Officer has the details.
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Old 11th May 2022, 01:53 AM   #3206
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
An interesting thread about Ukrainian artillery tactics. if this is indeed the case then it makes the discussions about counter battery fire a lot different.
A long winded way of saying they fire then move.
We know Ukraine aren't using Soviet tactics, they have been trained by UK and USA and equipped with up to date systems to support the training.

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 11th May 2022 at 01:57 AM.
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Old 11th May 2022, 03:13 AM   #3207
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Alexander Lukashenko warns that Belarus's army is combat ready and can inflict "unacceptable damage" on NATO countries
Ol' Luka missed a couple words: "unacceptable claims of damage."
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Old 11th May 2022, 04:26 AM   #3208
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Originally Posted by Lurch View Post
Ol' Luka missed a couple words: "unacceptable claims of damage."
It's cheering that Lukashenko is pointlessly warning NATO not to invade Belarus as an alternative to actually doing anything to help Putin. I really like Andy Zaltzman's description of him as "Putin's emotional support despot".
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Old 11th May 2022, 04:56 AM   #3209
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I'd like dudalb's take on this, as that Twitter account seems pretty mixed. He asserts with certainty things that are sometimes correct and sometimes at variance with known experts.

And dudalb has artillery experience, if I remember correctly.
I understand that. I found the thread to be interesting and figured I might share it here and see what others think.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
A long winded way of saying they fire then move.
That's an incredibly poor summary of that thread.

Quote:
We know Ukraine aren't using Soviet tactics, they have been trained by UK and USA and equipped with up to date systems to support the training.
I didn't say they were.
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Old 11th May 2022, 05:01 AM   #3210
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
...I must say, the quality of pro-Russian propaganda is pitiful, much like the way their supposedly world-class military has been revealed to be woefully inadequate. I thought the Russians were supposed to be good at propaganda too?
I tend to agree. This is Baghdad Bob level nonsense, stuff so absurd and obviously untrue that it makes one wonder at whom it is aimed. I can only imagine it's to give the rabid nationalists at home something to recite when they want to delude themselves into believing some fantasy where Mother Russia is doing the right thing. Because I can't imagine any other audience consuming such idiocy.

Quote:
Moreover, how many times does CE have to post something totally untrue before realising the sources cited are just bilge?
Oh, I think that realization has been in place for some time. I suspect the motivation behind such postings is that when the only weapon one has is a squirt gun filled with liquid sewage, that's the one you use, no matter how bad it makes you smell.
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Old 11th May 2022, 05:08 AM   #3211
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
It's cheering that Lukashenko is pointlessly warning NATO not to invade Belarus as an alternative to actually doing anything to help Putin. I really like Andy Zaltzman's description of him as "Putin's emotional support despot".
A poster upthread implied in passing that NATO is pursuing a goal: dividing the Slavs.

How dastardly! And just see how the leader of the White -- yes, White! -- Russians defies them! He and Vlad the Poisoner know the true meaning of Slava!

Am I right, poster upthread?
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Old 11th May 2022, 05:20 AM   #3212
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
A long winded way of saying they fire then move.
We know Ukraine aren't using Soviet tactics, they have been trained by UK and USA and equipped with up to date systems to support the training.
The thread is claims to explicitly that they're using an advanced and innovative system completely unlike the current US system.

Also, as far as I read, it was about tasking, not maneuver. It is about the time between target selection and initiating the fire mission. Not only about the time between fire mission and repositioning
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Old 11th May 2022, 05:40 AM   #3213
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
That's an incredibly poor summary of that thread.
Why?

He said a lot about the rules of engagement that slow down calls for fire.
They are there in situations like Iraq and Afghanistan to minimise collateral damage in a situation where the fight is against small numbers of insurgents mixed in with a civilian population.

None of that applies in Ukraine, it's an open battlefield and rules of engagement are much different so the call to fire time is very short.

Back in the 80s we could have fire support rounds on on the way from the 4.5 inch guns within seconds of getting a call from a FOO on the direct radio link.
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Old 11th May 2022, 05:42 AM   #3214
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
The thread is claims to explicitly that they're using an advanced and innovative system completely unlike the current US system.

Also, as far as I read, it was about tasking, not maneuver. It is about the time between target selection and initiating the fire mission. Not only about the time between fire mission and repositioning
US systems can have fire on target within seconds if the rules of engagement allow it.

Even we trained for it back in the 80s with the same system as was used from WW2.
We put a FOO ashore and he has a direct radio link with 'Guns' in the Ops room. We could have rounds down range within seconds of getting a fire order.
Probably faster than regular artillery can do it. Our guns were in fast training powered turrets and semi automatic in operation.

I think he's over thinking it.

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Old 11th May 2022, 06:16 AM   #3215
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One claim he made is that the system calls fire from only one weapon from each of several batteries, and that this greatly complicates [ETA: enemy] counter-battery fire. Does NATO have such a capability?
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Old 11th May 2022, 06:32 AM   #3216
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
One claim he made is that the system calls fire from only one weapon from each of several batteries, and that this greatly complicates [ETA: enemy] counter-battery fire. Does NATO have such a capability?
Yes It would be arranged depending on what was needed. Guns can be dispersed when needed or individual guns assigned to different tasks. Also it depends on how much fire you want. If it's just a few rounds use one gun. For a bigger barrage you would use more to shorten the length of time and concentrate the fire so you can get the guns moved as quickly as possible. Even after shooting on gun you would need to move before you were targeted.

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Old 11th May 2022, 06:53 AM   #3217
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Just wondering how reliable this analysis turned out
BTW, for the curious, here's a direct link to that post:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/0...fire.html#more

Obviously, Russia did not roll them up with few difficulties. It's quite interesting to see how their predictions have panned out. Here's another:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/0...n-unfolds.html

"The Russian forces will probably take another four weeks to destroy the Ukrainian units at the Donetsk front. The Russian command will then have to decide which parts of the Ukraine it will want to keep under control."

That's from the end of March, so Russia should have finished that by the end of April. Obviously that didn't happen either.

Now the fact that he got his predictions wrong isn't in and of itself really such a big deal. Lots of people called it wrong, lots of people thought Russia would perform much better than it did. The real problem is that there's no sign of any introspection. No acknowledgement that they even DID get it wrong, which they obviously did, let alone any analysis about why they got it wrong. And that denial is what really marks them as just a propaganda outfit, not an actual site for analysis.

And that is likely why CE goes there so regularly. She wants the propaganda. For some reason, it seems to be comforting to her.
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:15 AM   #3218
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b might have been been wrong on some details, and nobody but the Empire is in a hurry, but the general analysis is sound, while the pap most residents of this thread parrot from Limey propaganda sources is fundamentally upside-down nonsense. You will have to admit that as time goes by, at least to yourselves.
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:15 AM   #3219
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I dug a bit into that. Typical Russian propaganda. I liked the bit about Ukraine abandoning the Budapest Memorandum in February, as if that was justification for Russia's attack. Russia abandoned the memorandum back in 2014, it's got no justification for complaints on that score.

Pretty much all their complaints are of that sort. Russia is upset that countries are turning to NATO for protection, so what does it do in response? It gives those countries a reason to turn to NATO for protection.

Pro tip for Russia: if everyone you know is an *******, the problem is you. Russia has no friends. It has enemies, it has a few vassals, and it has a few allies of convenience. But no friends. There's a reason for that.
There was some interview with Lukaschenko in which he said “Russia has no better friend than the president of Belarus.”

A comment underneath said “what an extremely depressing thought that must be for Putin.”
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:33 AM   #3220
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
b might have been been wrong on some details, and nobody but the Empire is in a hurry, but the general analysis is sound, while the pap most residents of this thread parrot from Limey propaganda sources is fundamentally upside-down nonsense. You will have to admit that as time goes by, at least to yourselves.
Out of interest, which bits of b's predictions and analysis turned out to on the money ?

It seems to me that pretty much everyone underestimated Ukraine's ability to defend itself and/or overestimated Russia's ability to achieve its military objectives.

Support from NATO and other "Western" allies has proved to be important whether it's intelligence, materiel, money or just moral support but the Russians should have expected that and taken it into account in their planning.
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:34 AM   #3221
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
b might have been been wrong on some details, and nobody but the Empire is in a hurry, but the general analysis is sound, while the pap most residents of this thread parrot from Limey propaganda sources is fundamentally upside-down nonsense. You will have to admit that as time goes by, at least to yourselves.
Superciliousness is a poor substitute for confidence, and in any case faux confidence is no substitute at all for actual facts.
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:37 AM   #3222
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
There was some interview with Lukaschenko in which he said “Russia has no better friend than the president of Belarus.”

A comment underneath said “what an extremely depressing thought that must be for Putin.”
To be fair, Xi and Modi are doing a fair amount of heavy lifting on Russia's behalf.....
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:38 AM   #3223
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
BTW, for the curious, here's a direct link to that post:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/0...fire.html#more

Obviously, Russia did not roll them up with few difficulties. It's quite interesting to see how their predictions have panned out. Here's another:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/0...n-unfolds.html

"The Russian forces will probably take another four weeks to destroy the Ukrainian units at the Donetsk front. The Russian command will then have to decide which parts of the Ukraine it will want to keep under control."

That's from the end of March, so Russia should have finished that by the end of April. Obviously that didn't happen either.

Now the fact that he got his predictions wrong isn't in and of itself really such a big deal. Lots of people called it wrong, lots of people thought Russia would perform much better than it did. The real problem is that there's no sign of any introspection. No acknowledgement that they even DID get it wrong, which they obviously did, let alone any analysis about why they got it wrong. And that denial is what really marks them as just a propaganda outfit, not an actual site for analysis.

And that is likely why CE goes there so regularly. She wants the propaganda. For some reason, it seems to be comforting to her.
Wow! You should see what they were writing in February then.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/02/index.html
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:40 AM   #3224
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
b might have been been wrong on some details, and nobody but the Empire is in a hurry, but the general analysis is sound,
No, it was pretty much all wrong.
Do please quote the parts of the 'general analysis' that you think are correct.

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
while the pap most residents of this thread parrot from Limey propaganda sources is fundamentally upside-down nonsense. You will have to admit that as time goes by, at least to yourselves.
Well, no, I don't, but you could make that happen by quoting the specific 'upside-down nonsense' from 'Limey propaganda sources' you seem to think is being posted here.

Oh, and what does 'nobody but the Empire is in a hurry' mean? Is this a Star Wars reference? A reversal of 'Rome wasn't built in a day'? Japan has an Emperor- in fact, it's the only country I can think of that still does. Are they in a hurry?
I mean, yes, I know this is in all probability snarky nonsense fed to you by your handlers, but it would be nice to at least understand what the snarky nonsense means.
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:44 AM   #3225
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
To be fair, Xi and Modi are doing a fair amount of heavy lifting on Russia's behalf.....
Oh of course. My point is only that Putin can’t like the idea that Lukaschenko is his best bet.

Besides, India and China are not Russia’s friends and if they are egging him on he would be a fool to think they are doing so because of moral support. They are probably happier than anyone (aside from the Ukrainians) to see Russia’s military reduced to scrap metal.

Xi and Modi (probably): “no, don’t you care what those Yankees and their running dog lickspittles think of you. If you want to keep at it in Ukraine, we support your choice!”
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:54 AM   #3226
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
b might have been been wrong on some details
Some of the details? He was wrong on large fundamentals.

But again, even that isn't the real problem. There is neither any acknowledgment of error, nor any introspection into why they got it so wrong. That, more than the original error, is why your source is such a pathetic joke. And the fact that you still turn to it is quite telling.

Quote:
and nobody but the Empire is in a hurry, but the general analysis is sound, while the pap most residents of this thread parrot from Limey propaganda sources is fundamentally upside-down nonsense. You will have to admit that as time goes by, at least to yourselves.
Months have already gone by. Nothing MoA has been saying about Russian advances and progress has come to pass. How much longer do you think it will take until Russian victory becomes apparent?
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:55 AM   #3227
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It seems to me that pretty much everyone underestimated Ukraine's ability to defend itself and/or overestimated Russia's ability to achieve its military objectives.

Maybe that's because pretty much everyone you read has an agenda to make Russia look bad while having no clue about their military objectives.
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Old 11th May 2022, 07:59 AM   #3228
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Maybe that's because pretty much everyone you read has an agenda to make Russia look bad while having no clue about their military objectives.
so their military objective is to a lose a missile cruiser, hundreds and hundreds of tanks and tens of thousands of soldiers?

You are correct - their are right on track !
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:01 AM   #3229
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
To be fair, Xi and Modi are doing a fair amount of heavy lifting on Russia's behalf.....
Xi and Modi are allies of convenience, which is better than nothing, but it's still not nearly as good as actual friends. To Modi, this is just an opportunity to get cheap oil from Russia, he doesn't care about Russia succeeding. Xi certainly likes when Russia causes problems for the US, but this invasion is actually a problem for their own Belt and Road initiative, and China still has unresolved territorial grievances against Russia which may have been brushed under the rug but are likely not forgotten.

And given that Xi and Modi are themselves enemies of each other, it should be quite obvious that this isn't a trinity that will actually hold long term.
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:04 AM   #3230
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Some of the details? He was wrong on large fundamentals.

But again, even that isn't the real problem. There is neither any acknowledgment of error, nor any introspection into why they got it so wrong. That, more than the original error, is why your source is such a pathetic joke. And the fact that you still turn to it is quite telling.



Months have already gone by. Nothing MoA has been saying about Russian advances and progress has come to pass. How much longer do you think it will take until Russian victory becomes apparent?

b's track record is stellar compared to the notorious, paid liars many residents here still sell as "reputable". And he's just a single German not paid by Putin. Like you know who.
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:04 AM   #3231
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Maybe that's because pretty much everyone you read has an agenda to make Russia look bad while having no clue about their military objectives.
GPS, duct-taped to the cockpit of a fighter jet already did a lot to make Russia look bad. I also liked all the tanks running out of fuel.
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:05 AM   #3232
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Xi and Modi are allies of convenience, which is better than nothing, but it's still not nearly as good as actual friends. To Modi, this is just an opportunity to get cheap oil from Russia, he doesn't care about Russia succeeding. Xi certainly likes when Russia causes problems for the US, but this invasion is actually a problem for their own Belt and Road initiative, and China still has unresolved territorial grievances against Russia which may have been brushed under the rug but are likely not forgotten.

And given that Xi and Modi are themselves enemies of each other, it should be quite obvious that this isn't a trinity that will actually hold long term.
this

the difference being that India wants Russia on its side in a conflict with China, whereas China just want Russia to stay out of any conflict with India.
Oh, and Russia is just the junior partner in the relationship with China, as my Avatar is supposed to symbolize.
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:20 AM   #3233
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Maybe that's because pretty much everyone you read has an agenda to make Russia look bad while having no clue about their military objectives.
What exactly are their objectives? And are you talking strategic or tactical objectives? Because the former are far more important than the latter.

MoA doesn't have a clue about their tactical objectives (see: Kyiv predicted capture turning into a "feint"). What do they think their strategic objectives are? What do YOU think their strategic objectives are?

I'll mention one objective. I think Russia wanted to contain NATO and prevent its further expansion. This objective appears to be failing. Even if they can keep Ukraine out of NATO (but at this point, Ukraine has more incentive to join than ever), it is very likely that both Sweden and Norway will join, and Russia can do nothing now to prevent that.
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:22 AM   #3234
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Oh, and Russia is just the junior partner in the relationship with China, as my Avatar is supposed to symbolize.
I hadn't noticed the small bear on the panda's lap, but yeah, that's accurate.
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:22 AM   #3235
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Ah yes, the ever present reaction where when one’s side is failing they are actually just cleverly adding another dimension to the chess game.
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:27 AM   #3236
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
To be fair, Xi and Modi are doing a fair amount of heavy lifting on Russia's behalf.....
No sympathy at all for India's arms race with China? I think UKians need to come out in support of selling modern arms to India, in the quantities they need, at a price they can afford, before having an opinion on Indian affinity for Russia.
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:30 AM   #3237
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
b's track record is stellar compared to the notorious, paid liars many residents here still sell as "reputable".
I'm not going to bother trying to defend any sources you won't even specify. I'll even give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that someone in this thread used a source that was even worse than Moon of Alabama.

But it's not really relevant. A source's usefulness should be able to stand on its own, and yours doesn't. Their track record is complete garbage. They can't even acknowledge having been wrong about anything.

And neither can you.
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:48 AM   #3238
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Russia attempted to cross the Donetsk River in Donbass. Well, they didn't just attempt - they succeeded, building two pontoon bridges and getting 30+ vehicles across.

Then both bridges destroyed, most of the vehicles as well, the rest abandoned. I counted 35 vehicles in the images.

Russia also blew up a big supply of Ammonium nitrate which created a big orange cloud. Tankies are claiming that it is evidence if Ukrainian chemical weapons.
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:49 AM   #3239
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Some of the details? He was wrong on large fundamentals.

But again, even that isn't the real problem. There is neither any acknowledgment of error, nor any introspection into why they got it so wrong. That, more than the original error, is why your source is such a pathetic joke. And the fact that you still turn to it is quite telling.



Months have already gone by. Nothing MoA has been saying about Russian advances and progress has come to pass. How much longer do you think it will take until Russian victory becomes apparent?
Even after the invasion, MoA was denying it.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/0...ed-anyway.html

Quote:
There Is Still No 'Russian Invasion' But The Sanctions Proceeded Anyway
The information war about the current U.S.-Russia standoff continues. That is why the New York Times is again pushing fake Russian invasion claims:
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Old 11th May 2022, 08:50 AM   #3240
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I'm not going to bother trying to defend any sources you won't even specify. I'll even give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that someone in this thread used a source that was even worse than Moon of Alabama.

But it's not really relevant. A source's usefulness should be able to stand on its own, and yours doesn't. Their track record is complete garbage. They can't even acknowledge having been wrong about anything.

And neither can you.
Yeah, like a youtube video, right?
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