Russia threatens Finland & Sweden

[dudalb]

I predict there will be a interrim security agreesment between NATO (or individual NATO coutnries" and Finland with NATO troops being stationed in Finland which would be a de facto "Tripwire", until they are accepted fro membershis.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

We've got a few hundred more prototypes to go before we get there, he's going to be waiting for a while.

And FInland is way ahead of him in the line.
BUt , hell, even the US Forces only have a few F35 operational as a pioneer program.
But it says something about certain military "reformers" that the plane they have criticised from day one is the one that everybody seems to want.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I predict there will be a interrim security agreesment between NATO (or individual NATO coutnries" and Finland with NATO troops being stationed in Finland which would be a de facto "Tripwire", until they are accepted fro membershis.

This looks to be the case with both the UK and US at least.

I don't think that Finland needs to worry about a Russian conventional attack in the near future now.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

So, that cited a Financial Times article. I think I found it, but I won't post it, in case it's not the one they were citing (link takes you to a pay page). It goes on to say:



In short, Erdogan is feeling like he's not being taken seriously. His objections were domestic, in a speech to his own parliamaent. There's still a path to NATO membership, he just wants more than platitudes.

He has made the claim that Sweden is harbouring terrorists and there are terrorists in the Swedish government.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by jimbob

This looks to be the case with both the UK and US at least.

I don't think that Finland needs to worry about a Russian conventional attack in the near future now.

US Marines will b e arriving in Finland for manuevers in June. Would not be surpised if this turns into a extended stay.

[Jimbo07]

Originally Posted by Tero

Erdogan got F-15s. He wanted F-354s.

It looks like Greece doesn't even want them to get F-16s!

I found it interesting in the article:

Quote:

Ankara’s recent threats to tank Sweden and Finland’s bids for NATO membership have created uncertainty over whether those same lawmakers will allow the F-16 sale to proceed.

“Turkey has some explaining to do,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., told Defense News.

So, arms sales look to be one lever the US is going to pull...

Strange days...

[eerok]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Far less likely.

You're right. It's not likely to happen, at least any time soon, but the heart wants what the heart wants. I'm disgusted by tyrants, and I always hope to see them thwarted.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I thought the vote would be a bit closer in the Finnish Parliament though the Pro NATO position would still win with a comfortable margin. I thought at least 30 or 40 form the left wing Finnish parties would vote no. I guess Putin really has scared a lot of people in Finland.

Not scared. Just a realisation that the friendship on Russia's side was all fake.

Once you lose trust, once bitten twice shy.

[Tero]

The "Friendship document" and friendship were fake as well, with the Soviet Union. Though there were a few Finns going to Russia in groups and the communist dad of a buddy of mine proudly displayed a Russian radio in his living room. Late 1960s.

We only drove the Ladas as cheap cars. My dad had both a Volga (a used taxi) and Popeda. Then he went to a Mini. It's heater was not as good as the Russian cars.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finno-...Treaty_of_1948

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

He has made the claim that Sweden is harbouring terrorists and there are terrorists in the Swedish government.

The PKK sent condolences to the family of assassinated PM Olof Palme as they considered him to be a friend of theirs. Erdogan thinks this is a good opportunity to stir up old resentments - a typically childish reaction we would expect from someone with a grudge mentality.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Tero

The "Friendship document" and friendship were fake as well, with the Soviet Union. Though there were a few Finns going to Russia in groups and the communist dad of a buddy of mine proudly displayed a Russian radio in his living room. Late 1960s.

We only drove the Ladas as cheap cars. My dad had both a Volga (a used taxi) and Popeda. Then he went to a Mini. It's heater was noty as good as the Russian cars.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finno-...Treaty_of_1948

There were a few people in my family who joined the communist party and went on friendship exchanges, holidays in the Black Sea, Bulgaria and chess tournaments with real life Russian grandmasters. I respect people's right to choose whatever political belief they wish. However, people are feeling quite betrayed. Turku municipality even provided the Russian diplomats at the Russian Consulate with a summer cottage, dacha-style and sauna in Ruissalo - famous for its oak forests - and their own private orthodox church, No more! All shut now.

[Vixen]

I never thought I would say this but...

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Boris Johnson holds press conference with Finnish president – watch live
16,326 views Streamed live on 11 May 2022 Boris Johnson and Finnish president Sauli Niinisto hold news conference following their meeting

Thank you, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson!

For once Boris got it right.

[Tero]

Still hints of F-35 demands. I can't get the Bloomberg article or the HS pay2wall article.

Quote:

Petteri Tuohinen HS, Henri Häkkinen HS
18.5. 10:13 | Updated May 18 14:04
TURKEY is ready to accept Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership if the country returns to NATO's and the United States' F-35 fighter program, Bloomberg reports .

under that demands listed: "liberalization of [Swedish] arms trade and a tighter grip on kurds."
https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008824862.html

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by Tero

Still hints of F-35 demands. I can't get the Bloomberg article or the HS pay2wall article.

under that demands listed: "liberalization of [Swedish] arms trade and a tighter grip on kurds."
https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008824862.html

While I suspect the F-35 is still on the table, the Turks will probably settle on the modernization deal for their block 30/40/50 F-16s that has been stalled. The Swedish arms sales thing is largely symbolic. There's no capability the Swedes sell that the Turks can't (and haven't already) bought from somewhere else.

[Captain_Swoop]

I can't see the Swedes handing people over to the Turks for torture and execution.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

I can't see the Swedes handing people over to the Turks for torture and execution.

Sweden (and Finland) has never had any problem extraditing alleged terrorists. It is one reason some of the notorious terrorist or criminal acts happen, when the asylum-seeker is turned down and asked to leave the country and they retaliate with extreme violence. Not sure what Erdogan is referring to.

Sounds like he has a shopping list of things he thinks he can demand in exchange for his NATO vote. Like a child.

[Tero]

First signs of Erdogan "talking"

Quote:

Turkey's Erdoğan says he will talk to Finland and NATO Stoltenberg on Saturday
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says he will talk to Finland and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg on Saturday , Reuters reports. He told reporters on Friday.

Erdoğan has repeatedly said he opposes Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership.

Erdoğan said that he had met with the Dutch prime minister today, Friday, and that he would have talks with Britain in addition to Finland on Saturday. He did not specify with whom he intended to discuss Finland or Britain.

Anni Keski-Heikkilä, editor

https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000008807635.html

[Tero]

US involvement unclear. Turkey wants out of all restrictions.

Quote:

According to Reuters , the representative of the US State Department, Ned Price , has commented that Turkey's requirements in the Finnish and Swedish NATO application process are not a bilateral matter between the US and Turkey.

Price added that the US is in talks with Turkey and remains confident that a solution will be found to the disagreement.

Turkey made demands on Finland and Sweden in connection with, among other things, the activities of the PKK of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.

The problem is officially between Sweden, Finland and Turkey. However, it is widely believed that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is taking advantage of the situation to put pressure on the United States in Turkey’s long-standing demands on the country.

These include the cessation of US support for Kurdish armed forces in Syria and the lifting of arms export restrictions on Turkey.

https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/...b-e4acabd11662

[Tero]

Quote:

President Erdoğan stated that a mentality that disregarded terrorist organizations which posed a threat to an ally within NATO would not comply with the spirit of alliance and friendship.

President Erdoğan noted that it was Türkiye’s most natural right to expect respect to and support for the legitimate and determined fight Türkiye had been putting out against a clear threat to its national security and citizens.

https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/english/...alk-over-phone

[The Don]

Another very lengthy (1hr) and IMO very interesting video from the Perun Youtube channel.

This one discusses Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

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yt;dw - huge strategic error on Russia's behalf.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by The Don

Another very lengthy (1hr) and IMO very interesting video from the Perun Youtube channel.

This one discusses Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

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yt;dw - huge strategic error on Russia's behalf.

Good summary. Re 9:40 in: interesting when the narrator speaks of Alexander II, who was popular in Finland, as for the first time there was a sense of a separate Finnish identity from Sweden, whom it had been a part of for nigh on 800 years (or at least the South Western part). One of Finland's most effective statemen, Gustaf Mauritz Armfelt, 1757 - 1814, understood the power of diplomacy, which some modern warmongers could learn from. Armfelt famously stated: “We are no longer Swedes, we do not want to become Russians, so let us be Finns” - something that was very radical at the time.

Quote:

A Finnish great man

The third and more comprehensive interpretation of history is the Finnish view, which appreciates Armfelt's crucial role in the administration of King Gustav III and especially in the rapid progress of Swedish-Finnish cultural and scientific life. At the same time, it sees the greatest value of Armfelt's life's work in the last years of his life as Finland's representative in Russia, especially in his consistent and successful work to recognize Finland's autonomy, preserve Finland's former social freedom and laws, and to connect old Finland to the rest of Finland.

One of the most important acts of historical research is Armfelt's courageous and determined work in connecting Old Finland to the rest of Finland

<snipped - this refers to the area around Vyborg and which Armfelt managed to extend to as far as Lake Ladoga in the East and giving the region the same 'free man' rights as Sweden-Finland 'peasants' {='country dwellers'} as opposed to Russian serfdom and feudalism>



The comparison [= with Mannerheim] is justified by the fact that Mannerheim played a key role in Finland's independence and in the years of World War II and secession. Armfelt, on the other hand, played an equally crucial role in the birth of Finnish autonomy and its transformation into a Finnish Western society. Both can be said to be the founders of Finland, even though Armfelt was once more of a European celebrity than Mannerheim was.

As a testament and self-assessment, GM Armfelt's letter to Baron CE Mannerheim , which he died in writing in Tsarskoye Selo on August 11, 1814, has survived for generations:

"The emperor's generous favor with Finland has been the only consolation in my last days of pain. Maybe I'll still have time to pray. "

KALERVO MÄKINEN Turun Sanomat

If only present day politicians and statesmen could achieve this type of peace and cooperation without the need of belligerence, aggression and outright threats (cf Zakharova, take note).

[Tero]

What follows now is weeks of behind the scenes activity. Erdogan will slowly come to terms with almost no gain. He then has to whip his staff to turning that into a victory.