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Tags 2020 elections , joe biden , Kamala Harris

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Old 2nd March 2021, 03:23 PM   #2041
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
.....
Where one ends up with an agreement depends on the starting positions of the negotiations. If you only ask for a little, you are likely to get very little. If you ask for a lot, you just might get something reasonable.

That depends largely on the relative strength of the two sides. In a labor negotiation, the union can always call a strike or conduct a slowdown, and management can always impose a lockout or move production elsewhere or just shut the operation down. But those things don't usually happen because both sides have a financial stake in adopting middle positions that maintain a profitable business.

Political negotiations are different. Obama had essentially no leverage in dealing with a Repub-majority House and Senate who explicitly wanted him to fail. There were no consequences for Repub intransigence. Today Biden is dealing with a 50/50 Senate, at best. No matter what he asks for, the other side has no incentive to give up anything. Demanding more won't get more.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 04:13 PM   #2042
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Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
When will the Democrats realize they're in the majority and start acting that way?
The filibuster is a major obstacle. It might be smart to end it, but that could have long-term consequences.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 04:32 PM   #2043
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
The filibuster is a major obstacle. It might be smart to end it, but that could have long-term consequences.
The Republicans will end it the second it helps them, should the situation present itself. The Democrats get nothing for trying to preserve it, other than pandering to conservative squishes like Manchin.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 04:35 PM   #2044
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Partly because they have people like Manchin in their party, who might be a democrat but is also a moderate who often opposes many of the more progressive policies (like the $15 minimum wage and the filibuster).

Perhaps after the 2022 midterms, if the Democrats hold on to their majority in the house and expand their majority in the senate, they will have more flexibility to push for more.
I fail to see how doing nothing for 2 years is going to drive up voter turnout.

Republicans are firing up the culture war machine to get their voters all juiced up and ready to turn up at the ballot box. Democrats are hemming and hawing about whether it's ok to overrule the parliamentarian, a role that almost nobody knew existed until recently. Beyond parody.

Feckless leadership is generally not rewarded at the ballot box. At this rate, they're gonna get crushed and we'll have another split government for the duration of Biden's term.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 04:56 PM   #2045
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
The incumbency effect is indeed weakest for the newest incumbents, but if that were it then the effect would have hit people with various positions on policies randomly. Instead the ones who stood for things like M4A and a livable minimum wage got re-elected and the ones who didn't didn't. And that was also true for non-incumbents.
That doesn't make any sense. A voter has the choice of voting for a candidate whose party 'stands for' things like M4A and a livable minimum wage, vs voting for the other party / staying home. Withholding their vote for a candidate whose party supports their desires vs one who doesn't (and never will) is irrational (then again, what evidence do we have that 'progressives' are rational?).

Quote:
And remember, even if that pattern hadn't held, you would at best have an argument that policies & goals don't matter, not one for the original claim I was countering: that going left harms Democrats' chances. Even if the evidence didn't actually point in the opposite direction, that wouldn't conjure up any pointing in that direction.
Nonsense. What matters is that Democrats as a party have certain overall goals and policies that aim to achieve them. Individual policies may or may not be supported by individual members depending on a variety of rational reasons - and does not indicate that they 'failed to lean left'. It's not that policies and goals don't matter, but insisting that Democrats must be all in on the most radical 'progressive' policies in order to avoid 'harming their chances' will itself do more harm than good.

We have already seen the middle get squeezed as politics gets more partisan, and continuing to do so will only make things worse. The Republican party is in crisis now due to following that path. If Democrats do the same they risk losing the advantage.

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Not necessarily; I don't know the statistics of what really happened in this case but it's possible for one group to "stay home" while another group more than makes up for it,
Dragons aren't necessarily visible, so it's possible I have one in my garage right now - but not very likely. You haven't even looked at the statistics, yet you assert without evidence that 'progressives' withholding votes for 'those who have failed to lean left' caused them to lose. But with the exception of one candidate, all of them leaned left. So what you are really asserting is that they didn't lean left enough for 'progressives'. OTOH, you haven't considered the likelihood that moderates (particularly those who lean right) might not vote for candidates who lean too far left.

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and Trump appears to have been uniquely good at drawing out voters against himself regardless of what their voting behavior in Trumpless years might have been. However, that would just mean the "staying home" crowd was a stubborn fringe too small to usually affect the big picture anyway, and I'm not talking about them. I'm talking about most Americans.
And yet when the argument suits it, you are talking about them. Most eligible Americans (67% of them) did vote. That means they voted either for Democrats or Republicans. Those candidates that lost did so because more voted for the other side. Therefore most 'progressives' (assuming there are more than just a 'stubborn fringe') must have voted for the Republican candidate in seats that a Democrat lost. IOW, these 'progressives' are actually republicans.

Quote:
Most Americans, even most Republicans, are in favor of M4A, along with comparable alternatives like a "public option". Most Americans, even most Republicans, want a livable minimum wage.
That may be true, but the Republican party doesn't support it and never will. If republicans really want that they need to vote Democrat. Did they? No.

Quote:
Most Americans don't want us to still be hanging around in foreign "wars" that seem to serve no purpose. Most Americans want politicians not to be allowed to take bribes. Most Americans want higher tax rates on the rich. Most Americans want more money invested in various domestic programs and less in the military. And it goes on down the line, one issue after another, with the leftier position practically always being the more popular one.
Most Americans voted Democrat, but that doesn't mean they all support the most 'leftier' position.


Quote:
Or one who isn't a Democrat partisan; one who picks policies one issue at a time without thinking of the bigger framework they fit into or insisting that the DP must really want their preferred ideas even when it really hasn't been acting like it.
In our political system you vote for one party or the other. There is no third alternative. Perhaps you don't like everything your party is doing or all the positions of you local candidate, but you do know where the party is going as a whole. You either vote Democrat or Republican, and if you don't vote you are giving it to the opposition. That's not partisanship, it's just how the system works. It's not 'partisan' to support a party that doesn't align precisely with you desires, it's pragmatic.

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But also, yes, there is also the point that left & right isn't really the best spectrum along which to analyze American politics anyway; populism & its opposite is. And populism is mostly more easily aligned with leftiness
Not really.

Populism
Quote:
Populism refers to a range of political stances that emphasise the idea of "the people" and often juxtapose this group against "the elite"...

By the mid-20th century, US populism had moved from a largely progressive to a largely reactionary stance, being closely intertwined with the anti-communist politics of the period. In this period, the historian Richard Hofstadter and sociologist Daniel Bell compared the anti-elitism of the 1890s Populists with that of Joseph McCarthy...

Some mainstream politicians in the Republican Party recognised the utility of such a tactic and adopted it; Republican President Richard Nixon for instance popularised the term "silent majority" when appealing to voters. Right-wing populist rhetoric was also at the base of two of the most successful third-party presidential campaigns in the late 20th century, that of George C. Wallace in 1968 and Ross Perot in 1992. These politicians presented a consisted message that a "liberal elite" was threatening "our way of life" and using the welfare state to placate the poor and thus maintain their own power...

The Tea Party's populism was Producerism, while "the elite" it presented was more party partisan than that of Occupy, being defined largely—although not exclusively—as the Democratic administration of President Barack Obama
In the US, populism has consistently pushed politics to the right, away from policies that benefit 'the people' and towards enriching the Elite. It is closely associated with racism, sexism and xenophobia. While it is said that populism attracts those who want more for 'the people' than 'the elite', it's really about not wanting to share with others. They don't want 'more for everyone', just 'more for me'. So it's no wonder that the Democratic party doesn't satisfy such people.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 05:02 PM   #2046
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Old 2nd March 2021, 05:06 PM   #2047
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Feckless leadership is generally not rewarded at the ballot box.
You know what's rewarded at the ballot box? Lies, promises that can't be kept, and appeals to racism and xenophobia. Yes, if Democrats want to win they have to become populist - like Trump. That's what we all want, right?
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Old 2nd March 2021, 05:48 PM   #2048
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
That's not an 'underperformance' by Biden, that is a flaw in the system.
Underperformance is 306 EC votes when the bare minimum you were supposed to get was going to be 320, with 350 deemed more likely and an upper range in the upper 300s; losing states you were supposed to win. (...not to mention winning ridiculously close is sates that were supposed to be easy.)

Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Biden had the most votes ever
That's true of the winner of most elections. The population's growing. It would take a reduction in turnout percentage to fail to meet that standard.

Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
The filibuster is a major obstacle. It might be smart to end it, but that could have long-term consequences.
Not at all. It can be flipped on & off like a light switch. The only standard is which side it helps. When it helps Republicans, Republicans want to keep it. When it helps Democrats, Republicans want it gone. When it helps Republicans, Democrats want to keep it. When it helps Democrats, Democrats want it gone.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Perhaps after the 2022 midterms, if the Democrats hold on to their majority in the house and expand their majority in the senate, they will have more flexibility to push for more.
They are currently on course to throw away more seats next time.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 07:02 PM   #2049
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Should $15 minimum wage be stymied in the Senate, it's because VP Harris chose for that to happen.
So the fact that no Republicans would support that wage had nothing to do with its demise?
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Old 2nd March 2021, 07:10 PM   #2050
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
So the fact that no Republicans would support that wage had nothing to do with its demise?
They wouldn't regardless. Harris could have made it happen anyway. She chose not to.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 08:01 PM   #2051
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
They wouldn't regardless. Harris could have made it happen anyway. She chose not to.
You pretend that the Democratic party is a monolith and they all march in lock step. Every report I read said at least two Democratic Senators were not going to vote for it. And the Dems couldn't afford to lose one,
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Old 2nd March 2021, 08:30 PM   #2052
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
You pretend that the Democratic party is a monolith and they all march in lock step.
Man I wish. All they need is some basic cooperation to get stuff done.

Still, doesn't matter why Harris chose not to. She chose not to. Arguing the choice was a no-brainer doesn't make it not her choice to own.

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Old 2nd March 2021, 08:40 PM   #2053
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
The left isn't a fringe; it's most of us. It's the real "middle". The
middle among politicians is a fake middle that's well to the right of the people.

I did a quick google image search and found a diagram that clearly
shows Democrats on the left side of the political spectrum - Image 5.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 09:08 PM   #2054
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
That doesn't make any sense. A voter has the choice of voting for a candidate whose party 'stands for' things like M4A and a livable minimum wage, vs voting for the other party / staying home. Withholding their vote for a candidate whose party supports their desires vs one who doesn't (and never will) is irrational (then again, what evidence do we have that 'progressives' are rational?).
Well there's the problem right there. When trying to explain what people do, it's best to stick to what they actually do, not insist on what you think they should do. But also...

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
What matters is that Democrats as a party have certain overall goals and policies that aim to achieve them.
Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
In our political system you vote for one party or the other. There is no third alternative. Perhaps you don't like everything your party is doing or all the positions of you local candidate, but you do know where the party is going as a whole.
And where the DP is going as a whole is... right along with the RP. It really doesn't even try to be an actual opposition. Trying & failing can have a variety of causes, but choosing not to even try can only have one: it's not what they want. They are, after all, paid by the same donors who pay Republicans, and those donors are paying for one thing, not two contradictory things.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Most eligible Americans (67% of them) did vote. That means they voted either for Democrats or Republicans. Those candidates that lost did so because more voted for the other side. Therefore most 'progressives' (assuming there are more than just a 'stubborn fringe') must have voted for the Republican candidate in seats that a Democrat lost.
No, that's not how numbers work. You left out about a third of the population. It's also not how people work. A substantial amount of them don't loyally vote for a party. They vote for whichever seems closer to their own views this time around, which can be one party one time and another party the next time.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
IOW, these 'progressives' are actually republicans.
No, that's not how anything works. Voting for one party in one case does not equal voting for that same party again in all other cases. For example, a number that stands out in my memory is that about 9 million people voted Obama-Obama-Trump, plus another few million who voted for Obama once and then Trump. If your depiction of politics were accurate, those people could not exist.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Most Americans voted Democrat, but that doesn't mean they all support the most 'leftier' position.
That's one reason why I didn't claim it did.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Quote:
But also, yes, there is also the point that left & right isn't really the best spectrum along which to analyze American politics anyway; populism & its opposite is. And populism is mostly more easily aligned with leftiness
Not really.
Originally Posted by Wikipedia
By the mid-20th century, US populism had moved from a largely progressive to a largely reactionary stance...
In the US, populism has consistently pushed politics to the right, away from policies that benefit 'the people' and towards enriching the Elite. It is closely associated with racism, sexism and xenophobia.
I was referring to the present.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 09:18 PM   #2055
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
The left isn't a fringe; it's most of us. It's the real "middle". The middle among politicians is a fake middle that's well to the right of the people.
On my side of the world, your moderate Democrats would fit in nicely with our right wing conservative party, The Nats, while AOC, Katie Porter, Ilhan Omar, Mark Pocan, Rashida Tlaib, Ayanna Pressley Bill de Blasio, Jeff Merkley, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, whom you would regard as left wing progressive or very progressive, we would consider centre-left moderates.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 09:28 PM   #2056
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
Man I wish. All they need is some basic cooperation to get stuff done.

Still, doesn't matter why Harris chose not to. She chose not to. Arguing the choice was a no-brainer doesn't make it not her choice to own.
It wasn't her choice. It was the Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 12:12 AM   #2057
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Viewed from over the ocean, the asymmetric nature of US politics is just beyond belief.

Republican president: "I have just signed an executive order abolishing the cancelling of Christmas."
Republican supporters: "Hail to the Chief! Eight more years!"

Democratic president: "Here's a $1.9T Covid relief bill, with payments of $1,400 to most individuals, a $400 per week unemployment supplement through Aug. 29, along with an extension of programs making millions more people eligible for jobless benefits, an expansion of the child tax credit to give families up to $3,600 per child over a year, $20 billion for Covid-19 vaccine distribution and $50 billion for testing and tracing efforts, $350 billion in state, local and tribal government relief, $25 billion for assistance in covering rent payments, $170 billion for K-12 schools and higher education institutions to cover reopening costs and aid to students."
Democratic supporters: "Traitor, it doesn't even include my pet proposal."

(Just to be clear 1: I do think they should have included the minimum wage raise in the bill, but really, the self-defeating rhetoric by Democrats is simply amazing.)
(Just to be clear 2: I'm not saying Democrats should become cultist idiots like many Republicans are now, but really, the self-defeating rhetoric by Democrats is simply amazing.)
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Old 3rd March 2021, 05:31 AM   #2058
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
So the fact that no Republicans would support that wage had nothing to do with its demise?
Republicans are scum, this is a known thing.

That was kinda the whole point of the last election, to remove them from power and show the people what real political leadership looks like. The idea that the Democrats would actually make things better for ordinary people was a big driver for voter turnout.

Now they have to deliver. It's a simple as that. They have to show, not tell, that a Democratic run government is one that is meaningfully better.

I'm not saying that Democrat voters will vote Republican because they think that Republicans are better. Many will not. More likely they'll just stay home, once again disillusioned by the political process.

The current minimum wage is a poverty wage, full stop. $7.25 an hour is 15,000 a year for full time workers. Even in the cheapest cost of living areas, that's insufficient to cover the basic costs of living. There's no excuse for the Democrats letting this issue die in the dark.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 05:35 AM   #2059
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So the takeaway seems to be that Biden isn't going to be left enough so have the Repubs instead.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 05:35 AM   #2060
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
It wasn't her choice. It was the Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer.
If the party cared about this issue, there would be no doubt about who's fault it is. Holdouts can be pressured. If Manchin or Schumer or whoever is holding this thing up, a public airing of the issue will turn the screws on them. Let Manchin or Schumer or whoever is holding it up explain to the rest of the party, and the public, why they don't support this popular proposal.


The party seems more inclined to let the issue die quietly. They'll point to some pretextual reason, such as the parliamentarian, to take the issue off the table and they'll do their best to never mention it again.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 05:36 AM   #2061
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
So the takeaway seems to be that Biden isn't going to be left enough so have the Repubs instead.
The takeaway is that the Democrats are on pace to lose again, and it won't be because leftists vote for Trump or Cotton or whatever other fascistic ghoul runs next, it'll be because the public is totally disillusioned by the idea that the political process can actually make things better.

Take a look what is happening on the right in preparation for the next election. The extreme right is rallying their base, leaning hard into culture war issues like "cancel culture" or increasingly unhinged transphobia. Their firing up the engines of reactionary hate, and that's going to drive their base to the polls. More importantly, now that they are out of power, they are once again pointing out the extreme failings of our society. Sure, they have no solutions to actually improve these material conditions, but that doesn't matter. They're working up their coalition into a frenzy and, like always, it's going to work.

Meanwhile Democrats are letting popular policies like minimum wage increases die on the floor. They're pointing their finger at byzantine rules like the "parliamentarian" and claiming that nothing can be done. They may as well hang a sign around their neck saying "we can't govern, better things aren't possible".

The solution is for popular progressive candidates to primary these worthless centrists and exert more influence within the party, but that's a longer term solution. Meanwhile the GOP sees the writing on the wall and is pushing full ahead on gutting voting rights and establishing their reactionary party as a permanent ruling minority. We're looking at a generation of a Roberts SCOTUS that will strike down any legal challenge to voting restrictions or gerrymandering or anything other mechanism that the right wing will use to entrench itself into power.

There simply may not be enough time.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 05:49 AM   #2062
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
And yet Trump could have won the election if around 43,000 votes in three states had gone the other way. That should chill us all.
It should, but Biden's EC victory was as wide as Trump's four years back. There's a 7 million votes difference between the two candidates.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 05:51 AM   #2063
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Partly because they have people like Manchin in their party, who might be a democrat but is also a moderate who often opposes many of the more progressive policies (like the $15 minimum wage and the filibuster).
So start with a 12$ wage. It's still better than what it is right now by a a wide margin.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 05:52 AM   #2064
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
The Republicans will end it the second it helps them, should the situation present itself. The Democrats get nothing for trying to preserve it, other than pandering to conservative squishes like Manchin.
Exactly. The GOP has demonstrated that it cannot be reasoned with or compromised with. Now that the Democrats have the ability to pass bills, they should do so with wanton abandon.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 05:54 AM   #2065
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
On my side of the world, your moderate Democrats would fit in nicely with our right wing conservative party, The Nats, while AOC, Katie Porter, Ilhan Omar, Mark Pocan, Rashida Tlaib, Ayanna Pressley Bill de Blasio, Jeff Merkley, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, whom you would regard as left wing progressive or very progressive, we would consider centre-left moderates.
Same up here.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 06:00 AM   #2066
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
If the party cared about this issue, there would be no doubt about who's fault it is. Holdouts can be pressured. If Manchin or Schumer or whoever is holding this thing up, a public airing of the issue will turn the screws on them. Let Manchin or Schumer or whoever is holding it up explain to the rest of the party, and the public, why they don't support this popular proposal.


The party seems more inclined to let the issue die quietly. They'll point to some pretextual reason, such as the parliamentarian, to take the issue off the table and they'll do their best to never mention it again.
Seems to me like the 'representative' part of 'representative democracy' isn't working as intended, least of all in the US. Maybe we should take a page from the Athenians and assign the members of the government by lot? At least we'd know the people in place 'represent' whatever district they're from.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 06:36 AM   #2067
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The Prospect had learned that Seth Harris, a former deputy secretary of labor and acting secretary of labor under President Obama who has connections to the ridesharing industry’s thunderous Prop 22 victory in California last year, a shattering event for U.S. labor law, has taken a key policy position in the administration.

Top labor officials were aware that Harris was in line for a White House job, yet were not informed of the specific position. The White House did not respond to a request for comment. But hours after the Prospect asked, Bloomberg reported that Harris would become a deputy assistant to the president for labor and the economy.

“I don’t think they are particularly proud of this hire,” said Jeff Hauser of the Revolving Door Project, whose organization has been critical of Harris in the past. “Clearly, the most newsworthy thing he has been involved in in the last several years is seen as something that has been very bad for the American labor movement.”
Architect of California's prop 22 gets job in the Biden admin.

Quote:
The results have been predictably terrible, with grocery stores firing their full-time delivery drivers in favor of Prop 22–enabled gig workers, Uber and Lyft jacking up prices for rides, and health care stipends from the “benefits program” for drivers coming up way short of what was advertised. Rideshare companies have vowed to bring the Prop 22 regime to other states.
https://prospect.org/cabinet-watch/q...l-seth-harris/

Prop 22 always for tech giants to continue to classify their employees as independent contractors, undercutting labor law protections for workers.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 06:38 AM   #2068
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
If the party cared about this issue, there would be no doubt about who's fault it is. Holdouts can be pressured. If Manchin or Schumer or whoever is holding this thing up, a public airing of the issue will turn the screws on them. Let Manchin or Schumer or whoever is holding it up explain to the rest of the party, and the public, why they don't support this popular proposal.


The party seems more inclined to let the issue die quietly. They'll point to some pretextual reason, such as the parliamentarian, to take the issue off the table and they'll do their best to never mention it again.
What sort of pressure do you imagine the party can put on Manchin that would sway him? He's popular in his home state while other Democrats aren't precisely because he defies Dem policies. Oh, no, threaten to make waves about his intransigence and make him even more popular and sure to be voted in next time?

All this armchair quarterbacking about how the Democrats should be ramming through your pet proposals simply ignores the obvious fact that they don't have the ability to do so with such a slim majority. Yeah, you wish they could wave a magic wand and make Manchin cooperate, but it's to his political benefit to not cooperate.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 06:41 AM   #2069
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
What sort of pressure do you imagine the party can put on Manchin that would sway him? He's popular in his home state while other Democrats aren't precisely because he defies Dem policies. Oh, no, threaten to make waves about his intransigence and make him even more popular and sure to be voted in next time?

All this armchair quarterbacking about how the Democrats should be ramming through your pet proposals simply ignores the obvious fact that they don't have the ability to do so with such a slim majority. Yeah, you wish they could wave a magic wand and make Manchin cooperate, but it's to his political benefit to not cooperate.
Is Manchin's resistance to increasing the minimum wage popular in his home state?

the min wage in W. Virginia is 8.75 an hour. The state has the 6th highest poverty levels in the country.

https://wvpolicy.org/data-released-t...2050%20states.

Quote:
11.8 percent of adults reported that their household sometimes or often didn’t have enough to eat in the last seven days.
17.0 percent of adults with children reported that their kids sometimes or often didn’t eat enough in the last seven days because they couldn’t afford to.
19.0 percent of adults who live in rental housing reported that they were behind on rent, and 6.0 percent are behind on their mortgage payments.
And 29.0 percent of all children in West Virginia live in a family that is either not getting enough to eat or is behind on housing payments.
The min wage seems like an issue that Manchin might be vulnerable to being pressured on.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 08:28 AM   #2070
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Is Manchin's resistance to increasing the minimum wage popular in his home state?

the min wage in W. Virginia is 8.75 an hour. The state has the 6th highest poverty levels in the country.

https://wvpolicy.org/data-released-t...2050%20states.



The min wage seems like an issue that Manchin might be vulnerable to being pressured on.
Manchin has publicly stated he won't go higher than $11. There's lots of news articles about it. That doesn't appear to have hurt him at home. Exactly how should the Democrats pressure him? Be specific, please.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 08:40 AM   #2071
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
So start with a 12$ wage. It's still better than what it is right now by a wide margin.

One thing that I haven't seen discussed enough is that this "$15 minimum wage" thing doesn't mean it will become $15 overnight. It will be implemented gradually. In fact, it won't even be the $12 you suggest for several years:

Quote:
The first increase to $9.50 an hour would occur the day a law becomes effective. Congress can set the law to become effective at a later date than when the president signs it. Annual increases would follow until reaching $15 an hour, four years after the effective date, then the rate would be reviewed annually and adjusted based on changes to median hourly earnings of all employees.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-...ur-11612550898


If you look at the graph there, it hits $12.50 in July 2023.

So there's already a built-in compromise. And they still can't get enough people to agree to it.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 09:50 AM   #2072
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
Manchin has publicly stated he won't go higher than $11. There's lots of news articles about it. That doesn't appear to have hurt him at home. Exactly how should the Democrats pressure him? Be specific, please.
You're right, we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas.

It won't hurt Manchin at home when the Democrats resume being the minority party either, ya know.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 09:59 AM   #2073
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
You're right, we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas.

It won't hurt Manchin at home when the Democrats resume being the minority party either, ya know.
You're right that it won't hurt Manchin if you were to get your wish that the Democrats resume the minority party status. That doesn't really answer the question, though. You are claiming the Democrats should pressure Manchin, as though they have the ability to change his opinion and the fault is theirs for not doing so. I'd like to know exactly how you think they should do so.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 10:03 AM   #2074
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
You're right that it won't hurt Manchin if you were to get your wish that the Democrats resume the minority party status. That doesn't really answer the question, though. You are claiming the Democrats should pressure Manchin, as though they have the ability to change his opinion and the fault is theirs for not doing so. I'd like to know exactly how you think they should do so.
In all the usual ways. They can promise him other things he wants. They can threaten to take away things he wants. They can make paint him as an impediment to the Democratic agenda. They can support challengers in his area, or threaten to do so. You know, politics. Wheeling and dealing, the kind of thing they do all the time for issues they actually care about, as opposed to the helpless play-acting they do when it comes to passing progressive policy.

Is there evidence that Manchin won't budge from this position, given the proper incentives? Is there evidence that the party has even tried?
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Old 3rd March 2021, 10:08 AM   #2075
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
One thing that I haven't seen discussed enough is that this "$15 minimum wage" thing doesn't mean it will become $15 overnight. It will be implemented gradually. In fact, it won't even be the $12 you suggest for several years:
That's true. I had forgotten that.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 10:28 AM   #2076
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Harris should rule that the minimum wage is a reconcilable topic if for no other reason than to ensure that more modest minimum wage proposals are also reconcilable. Ruling that it can't be reconciled is basically giving up the possibility of passing any hikes.
https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/stat...57767866380292

If Harris allows the Parliamentarian decision to stand, that's pretty much shutting the door on any chance of any min wage hike. It would be better to overrule the Parliamentarian and let the $15 wage fail to get 51 votes, because at least that leaves open the possibility of future passage through the reconciliation process.

If not, it's pretty much over. It's hard to imagine 10 Republican ghouls crossing the aisle to get to 60 votes, even if a lesser wage hike approved by Manchin were proposed.

If Harris allows the Parliamentarian ruling to stand, min wage increase is a dead issue.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 10:29 AM   #2077
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
In all the usual ways. They can promise him other things he wants. They can threaten to take away things he wants. They can make paint him as an impediment to the Democratic agenda. They can support challengers in his area, or threaten to do so. You know, politics. Wheeling and dealing, the kind of thing they do all the time for issues they actually care about, as opposed to the helpless play-acting they do when it comes to passing progressive policy.
Yes, painting him as an impediment to the Democratic agenda will definitely motivate him. As that is what he already paints himself as, it will motivate him to continue impeding.

What can they threaten to take away? What can they promise him? This isn't specifics, this is vague pabulum that ignores the reality of the situation.

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Is there evidence that Manchin won't budge from this position, given the proper incentives? Is there evidence that the party has even tried?
Other than his say so? What other evidence would you accept?
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Old 3rd March 2021, 10:41 AM   #2078
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
Yes, painting him as an impediment to the Democratic agenda will definitely motivate him. As that is what he already paints himself as, it will motivate him to continue impeding.

What can they threaten to take away? What can they promise him? This isn't specifics, this is vague pabulum that ignores the reality of the situation.



Other than his say so? What other evidence would you accept?
The hardball approach would be to overrule the parliamentarian, include a min wage hike as part of covid relief, and dare Manchin to veto it and be the sole reason why American aren't getting their checks.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 11:01 AM   #2079
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
It should, but Biden's EC victory was as wide as Trump's four years back. There's a 7 million votes difference between the two candidates.

I think you missed the point. In 2020, if just 43,000 or so votes had switched in three states, the EC would have been tied, and the Repub House would have chosen Trump. The popular vote wouldn't have mattered at all.

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Old 3rd March 2021, 11:29 AM   #2080
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
I think you missed the point. In 2020, if just 43,000 or so votes had switched in three states, the EC would have been tied, and the Repub House would have chosen Trump. The popular vote wouldn't have mattered at all.
No, you're missing my point. Trump called his victory a landslide, and Biden's EC win was the exact same. And if we ignore the EC, he got 7m more votes. Your point and my point don't negate each other.
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