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#1961 |
Winter is Coming
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 9,086
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Naturalism adjusts it's principles to fit with the observed data. It's a god of the facts world view. -joobz When I give food to the poor they call me a saint, when I ask why the poor have no food they call me a communist - Hélder Câmara |
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#1962 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Where there's never a road broader than the back of your hand.
Posts: 3,996
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Quite. Caroline13 is openly admitting that her position is not evidence-based: it's more of an emotional reaction.
Nothing wrong with emotional reactions, of course, but if they are contradicted by all of the available factual evidence, then the sensible thing to do would be to examine that reaction, reassess it, and perhaps conclude that over-hasty, knee-jerk reactions are not always reliable. |
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Fortuna Faveat Fatuis |
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#1963 |
Philosopher
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Sydney Nova Scotia
Posts: 8,709
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Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
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#1964 |
Dental Floss Tycoon
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 17,961
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Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone. |
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#1965 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Where there's never a road broader than the back of your hand.
Posts: 3,996
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Fortuna Faveat Fatuis |
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#1966 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Northumberland, UK
Posts: 897
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Oh, we're back into anecdote again. And nurse-based this time!
So, my sister (Band 7 in palliative care) and all her colleagues say Covid exists, as several of them had it, they've seen many patients with it and they've read mucho evidence; the specialist nurse from my cardiology team (Band 7 also) I spoke to a couple of weeks ago says it exists, as her team have seen enough folk with it and half the team has been diverted away from normal cardiology duties to other areas because of it; I (retired Band 7) say it exists, as I've read shedloads of that science stuff. There, we out rank some eejit on Youtube or wherever. |
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#1967 |
Philosopher
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Sydney Nova Scotia
Posts: 8,709
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Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
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#1968 |
Winter is Coming
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 9,086
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__________________
Naturalism adjusts it's principles to fit with the observed data. It's a god of the facts world view. -joobz When I give food to the poor they call me a saint, when I ask why the poor have no food they call me a communist - Hélder Câmara |
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#1969 |
Evil Fokker
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 13,243
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www.spectrum-scientifics.com <- My store of science toys, instruments and general fun! Thanks for helping me win Best Toys in Philly Voter in 2011,2012, and 2014! We won' be discussing the disappointment that was 2013. |
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#1970 |
Dental Floss Tycoon
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 17,961
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Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone. |
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#1971 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 22,893
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Part of a thread claiming Covid's not causing the deaths
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/s...23040273760257
Quote:
and look at the September minimum, which makes it even more "eccentric" than it seems: Yes there's a bank holiday effect - unless she's not being clear in what she says. And sadly, I do think she believes what she writes. |
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OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending |
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#1972 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: I live in a swamp
Posts: 22,817
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Not that our deniers want to be educated but actual skeptics may find this of value. The Economist did a pretty good deep dive into global excess deaths in 2020. The US was at 138 per 100,000 in 2020. It's a vain hope but our deniers might want to read the article as it's instructive as to what real study methodology looks like.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker |
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#1973 |
Philosopher
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 8,469
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#1974 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Puget Sound
Posts: 15,465
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I was fixated on Pastor Chuck Baldwin during the 2008 election cycle.
Ron Paul, Chuck Baldwin and Christopia He's the whackjob who relocated to Montana to join The American Redoubt, and who ran for POTUS (with Ron Paul's endorsement). Baldwin believes that the covid crisis is the work of the devil -- not the pandemic, but the actions of the government. But he differs from like-minded individuals like Mike Lindell. Baldwin is anti Trump. I'll dig up the link on request. Its a long, tedious audio recording. I should mention ... Though he's not a comedian, Pastor Chuck reminds me of George Carlin. ![]() |
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To survive election season on a skeptics forum, one must understand Hymie-the-Robot.
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#1975 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Where there's never a road broader than the back of your hand.
Posts: 3,996
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Actually, my post was more for the benefit of Caroline13.
The effects of cognitive biases on our judgement are fairly common knowledge on this forum. I'm not sure to what extent she is aware of them- I certainly didn't know much about this before I joined this forum. Since then, I have learned a great deal, both from what's been posted here, and the further reading this forum has inspired me to do, and this better understanding has proved invaluable. I'm hoping the same thing will happen with Caroline13- a bit of reflection on how she arrived at her conclusions, and a better understanding of how things like confirmation bias can skew our reasoning. |
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Fortuna Faveat Fatuis |
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#1976 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 22,893
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I've now tried applying what I think is her method of calculating excess deaths to every week since wk31, 1999, and highlighting the positive excess values (above the minimum for September for that year) to them
The pink cells are the weeks that would be counted as excess according to that method. |
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OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending |
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#1977 |
Scholar
Join Date: Feb 2021
Posts: 108
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The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Pope Anthony is VERY worried about mutations! https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/othe...cid=uxbndlbing |
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#1978 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 14,853
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He and every other epidemiologist.
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The things that you're liable To read in the Bible It ain't necessarily so |
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#1979 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Central California Coast
Posts: 4,951
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Yes, since April of last year:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100 The important message in this second one:
Quote:
For non-scientific folks: https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/icelan...s-report-says/
Quote:
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Disingenuous Piranha |
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#1980 |
Dental Floss Tycoon
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 17,961
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Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone. |
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#1981 |
Winter is Coming
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 9,086
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__________________
Naturalism adjusts it's principles to fit with the observed data. It's a god of the facts world view. -joobz When I give food to the poor they call me a saint, when I ask why the poor have no food they call me a communist - Hélder Câmara |
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#1982 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 2,252
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That's a good point. My purpose in interacting on various boards and researching stuff is to discover new info and, most critically, info that changes my current understanding of things. The latter I most highly value. Confirmation bias is ever present but recognizing and overcoming it to absorb conflicting or probable facts is essential. It's not easy though. I learned a long time ago how essential it was in my engineering job to test new ideas and not go down a rabbit hole no matter how attractive the idea seemed.
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Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool. |
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#1983 |
Schrödinger's cat
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Malmesbury, UK
Posts: 13,148
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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#1984 |
Scholar
Join Date: Feb 2021
Posts: 108
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Well, that's what I've been led to believe over most of my 75 years- that viruses mutate all the time- coronaviruses, flu viruses, rhinoviruses, etc., and the human immune system usually fights them off unless it is inherently weak or has been compromised, even novel flu viruses and novel coronaviruses, which it seems occur every year.
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#1985 |
Philosopher
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Sydney Nova Scotia
Posts: 8,709
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__________________
Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
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#1986 |
Muse
Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: So Calif.
Posts: 523
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NOT SO.
Get your friggin Immune Systems strong and you don't need to worry aboout this and that mutation. Then what would you talk about, a good immune system, lord no. As for me I have good health and as I've said many times here I live with a damaged body from a major hip surgery (replacement) 10 yrs ago....and yes some 60 yrs of arthritis that started at 18 and it does not reverse with age, one manages it and many work to stay away from the surgeon's knives...I often think where I'd be had I not let them cut me up. |
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#1987 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,029
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#1988 |
Troublesome Passenger
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 19,065
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#1989 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 5,407
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#1990 |
Dental Floss Tycoon
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 17,961
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__________________
Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone. |
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#1991 |
Winter is Coming
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 9,086
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Why do you keep ignoring people Caroline? Why do you think we can't see just how intellectually bankrupt you are?
Why, for example, did you simply assert without evidence that the person I knew who died must have had a compromised immune system despite not knowing him at all, whereas I, who did know him, knew that he did not? Indeed, I even told you he did not. I don't have a compromised immune system per se, but I've still been instructed very firmly to shield and have been put on the "Underlying Conditions" section of the immunisation program. This is because I was born with 3 congenital heart defects. Now one of them has been completely cleared up and does not bother me, but one needs regular (as in, I've had 3 or 4 operations on it so far) surgery, and the other is literally not fixable. Therefore should I get COVID19, my heart and breathing could be put under unacceptable strain and I could die. This isn't a problem with my immune system, but I bet you will insist it is. |
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Naturalism adjusts it's principles to fit with the observed data. It's a god of the facts world view. -joobz When I give food to the poor they call me a saint, when I ask why the poor have no food they call me a communist - Hélder Câmara |
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#1992 |
Dental Floss Tycoon
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 17,961
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I get the same impression. The apparent inability to see anything beyond its immediate effect on her also helps solidify this assessment. She had a bad experience with a hip replacement, therefore all hip replacements are a bad thing. Furthermore, all surgeries of any kind are bad. This is certainly consistent with the self-centered belief that not yet personally knowing anyone who has become seriously ill or has died from COVID-19 is evidence that it's all fake.
ETA: I only know a couple of people who have had hip replacement surgery, but both were given much improved mobility afterward. I also have a friend who had a knee replacement in his mid sixties (he'd seriously injured that knee in the U.S. Army during jump training as an Airborne Ranger, and it finally deteriorated to the point that he could hardly walk, or drive his '74 911 Targa, which really annoyed him) and after recovering from the surgery he was able to be physically active again, which was very important to him. |
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Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone. |
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#1993 |
Dental Floss Tycoon
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 17,961
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Probably in pain from a deteriorated hip.
I'm sorry you were among the small percentage who are in pain after hip replacement. But you said yourself in another post that you were informed that there were risks. Why would you still assume that you would be guaranteed a successful outcome? Why would you assume that all hip replacements are bad? HSS "The success rate for this surgery is high, with greater than 95% of patients experiencing relief from hip pain. The success rate of hip replacements 10 years after surgery is 90- 95% and at 20 years 80-85%. Should an implant wear or loosen, revision to a new hip replacement is possible." |
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Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone. |
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#1994 |
Scholar
Join Date: Feb 2021
Posts: 108
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Did normal human immune systems manage to fight off NEW cold and flu viruses for hundreds of thousands of years without the benefit of flu shots and cold medicines, and now have suddenly become incapacitated?
How has the immune system ALWAYS fought off NEW (novel) viruses? Keep the Covidist Faith, please. |
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#1995 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Dog House
Posts: 25,849
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"Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen" - Albert Einstein "... education as the means of developing our greatest abilities" - JFK https://folding.stanford.edu/ fold with your computer - join team 13232 |
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#1996 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 32,632
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#1997 |
Philosopher
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Sydney Nova Scotia
Posts: 8,709
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Viruses have always killed people. Vaccines and effective medicines have helped reduce the number of deaths. A major reason that the average human lifespan is higher than it has ever been and continues to increase is the effective application of modern medicines, including vaccines.
Considering it is a new virus the immune systems of humans are doing a remarkable job of fighting off COVID-19. Only 1 to 2 percent of the cases result in death, and a high percentage of people recover without hospitalization because their immune systems are successfully fighting the virus. The advantage of a vaccine is that it gives a significant assist to the human immune system and will significantly reduce the number of deaths and serious cases beyond what immune systems alone can accomplish. Reducing this year's 2.5 million worldwide deaths by 90% next year would be a good thing, right? |
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Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
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#1998 |
Scholar
Join Date: Feb 2021
Posts: 108
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Right from the get-go the vague Chinese Weapons lab and Pangolin stories smelled fishy, and I began gathering facts.
There are thousands of people on their last legs, dying of colon cancer, congestive heart failure, or whatever, who "die today" of diarrhea and dehydration from what doctors and nurses call C. diff (see-diff, Clostridium difficile bacteria), which doesn't often affect doctors and nurses, but just people whose immune systems are compromised, or whose "good" bacteria have been killed by antibiotics. Does the death certificate say that the cause of death was dehydration, diarrhea, or C. difficile? No, usually the death certificate states only the primary cause. Except, apparently, in the Presidential-election year, where Covid-19 was listed as the cause of death for people in nursing homes on hospice care, and political science trumped biological science. Also, FactCheck confirmed that hospitals get a large government bonus when they report covid as a contributing factor in deaths, whereas they don't for C. diff. FactCheck pulled that report, but the same info is available elsewhere. If hospitals were paid to report C. diff as a death co-factor, fearmongers could report millions of C. diff deaths world-wide every year. I went over all this ad nauseum at Skeptics.com with quotes from The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements and other sources, connecting a lot of dots that indicate that Covid-19 is less a catastrophic plague, and more a colossal fiction. It's still there to see, and I won't repeat it here. Imvho, if we could explain why billions of people have come to believe that an angel hovered over the Virgin Mary causing her to give birth to the Son of God who died for our sins, that it might go a long way toward explaining what kind of economic and political factors interacted to cause billions of people to accept the notion that a common-cold coronavirus is a plague of Biblical proportions and the flu has mysteriously disappeared. |
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#1999 |
Philosopher
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Sydney Nova Scotia
Posts: 8,709
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__________________
Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
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#2000 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Puget Sound
Posts: 15,465
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__________________
To survive election season on a skeptics forum, one must understand Hymie-the-Robot.
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