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#201 |
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#202 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
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Year 2012 is there for all to see. It gives a 14.6% growth in 14 years instead of a 14.5% in 15 years. Wow! What a striking difference! I managed to hide the complete success of Chávez. ![]() Look pal, why don't you go a fetch someone who can replace you and argue your side of the discussion in an effective and non-risible manner? Because so far dann and you have not provided what a good extreme leftist shall, other than the quality of being irritating and close-minded. The needed ability to polemicize, not present at all. I'd love discussing with well educated zurdos. They make me evolve. Here I only see the same recycling of stale red merchandise. |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#203 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#204 |
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
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ETA: No longer relevant...
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#205 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
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I'd rather say that the surprised one is you
![]() I certainly know all what is needed about Econometrics to argue the truth here. You are just trying to post your way out of this discussion by pretending you have said thing you didn't, that what you said was true and what your opponents say is uninformed. The problem here is you are absolute alien to what Venezuela was and is. Yet, for some obscure reason, you have a compulsion to argue with a short resourceless repetitive bunch of lies and tenths of truths. Look pal, I will continue to reply to any of your posts, no matter how twisted, repetitive and entangled you present their contents while you retreat. It could not be today, but I will. G'nite! |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#206 |
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#207 |
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You don't need econometrics for this one. You only need to fetch the data from the IMF database.
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#208 |
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#209 |
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Unfortunately, expected answer that is also wrong and misleading (only one slice through data). There are other fun data that shows that your chosen metric is grossly insufficient for assessment..
You may want to review other data. Suggested comparison is Venezuela versus Columbia for further fun one can include also other Oil rich countries like Saudi Arabia. |
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#210 |
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Yeah, one standard measure is hardly enough to even begin an economic assessment. But what is actually misleading, is aleCcowaN:s repertoire of accusations that, for example, I made up the statistics. When that accusation turned out to be false, insisting that the numbers are "pre-cooked" and suggesting we should only look at IMF's numbers. Well, we are thus, finally, looking at the IMF's numbers (World Economic Outlook database), and surprise, surprise … they are comparable to the figures originally used.
Now, we can obviously compare neighboring countries to Venezuela for the same time period and/or compare the numbers for Venezuela at different time periods. So, for the latter case, you'll find that – using the same measure – GDP per capita prior to Chavez taking office weren't exactly stellar: falling from 4.7 in 1980 to under 3 in the 1990s and then struggling back to 4.1 in 1999 when Chavez took office. Would that be part of the story why Chavez came to power in the first place (or are the numbers prior to Chavez also "cooked")? Make no mistake; the economic and political mismanagement is apparent throughout the decades prior, during and probably after Chavez. |
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#211 |
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But I bet he was behind it anyway!
![]() No, I'm pretty sure that Chavez was behind the subprime mortgage crisis. He took all the money he stole from poor Venezuelans and invested it in the housing sector, and right now Maduro is planning to do the same thing when Trump privatizes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#212 |
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Denmark has successful socialism as does Cuba. Socialism only seems to work for small nations.
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If at first you don't succeed try try again. Then if you fail to succeed to Hell with that. Try something else. |
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#213 |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#214 |
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Hamilton 68: Tracking Russian internet propaganda |
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#215 |
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Denmark is full of social democrats, not so much socialists in the traditional sense.
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#216 |
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Do you really believe Chavez was success story?
For example raw GDP of Venezuela was very similar to Colombia's. (And Colombia had some fun with FARC till recent time!) GDP/Purchase parity was identical with Colombia. And inflation was twice of Colombia. (2002 three times and since then remained very high) Also compare Venezuela's Real GDP grow to Colombia and Saudi Arabia in 1998-2000. Quite similar. ETA: GDP per capita, current prices/Purchasing power parity; international dollars per capita is quite flat for Venezuela since 1991. |
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#217 |
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#218 |
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Straight to the important information (I'll later take care of some other manipulative bits dropped in this thread)
Venezuela's oil production collapsing. It dropped to levels of 1947: ![]() Just 1.278 million barrels per day, down from the 2.154 millions during 2016, 2.6 millions in 2014 and 3.3 millions the year before Chávez came into power. Both Venezuela and PDVSA are in the verge of default. Führer Maduro ordered oil production to increase in one million barrels per day. Would we have to wait to learn if oil production obeys? |
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#219 |
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Spates of violence and high tension throughout the continent because of the Venezuelan exodus Published today in La Nación, Buenos Aires. Use Google translate though it may be a little tricky.
Some points to highlight:
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#220 |
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El Nacional, the last really independent newspaper, restricted to 5 issues a week owing the lack of paper. The problem is common to all the press and worsened since 2012 when Chávez created a monopoly to control the press (Trump must be dreaming with this). This newspaper survives with paper provided by other publishers in the continent.
In addition, El Nacional has been heavily fined for publishing news "that may offend officials" and its internet version blocked several times. [El Universal used to have an English version of its website. It no longer exists] |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#221 |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#222 |
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International reserves vanishing: just 8440 u$s millions. But they have the petro.
The Maduro solution: if you print a mountain of money and have hyperinflation as a result, then fabricate a mountain of cryptocurrency and say it is pegged to the price of something existent and guaranteed by something non-existent. Surely they will believe you and inflation will be over ![]() Today it starts a new era in the economic history of Venezuela: its demise. |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#223 |
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Corn production fell 58% in 10 years.
Year 2007: 650,000 hectares sowed; 2.4 million tons harvested; 100% of white corn consumption covered, 40% of yellow corn consumption covered. Year 2017 350,000 hectares sowed; 1 million tons harvested; only 20% of white corn needs (human consumption) covered; just 35% of yellow corn needs (animal use) covered. Keys: the government controls the availability of agrochemicals and fertilizers and interferes in the commercialization of seed and produce. 2017: Venezuela, 1 million tons; Argentina 39 million tons (half the country is desert) but only 23.5 million tons in 2015, last year of the pro-Chavist government in Argentina. |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#224 |
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#225 |
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![]() Misael Ubeda, a Venezuelan industrial engineer, arrived to Buenos Aires 2 months ago and now works for Rappi (a competitor of Glovo) as a delivery bike messenger. Rappi and Glovo are said to have become informal consulates of Venezuela in Argentina. |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#226 |
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Originally Posted by Klimax
Just to clarify: even if you use index measures like purchasing power parity (PPP) you should also be clear about why you choose that particular measure. Especially since empirical evidence for the validity of the PPP theory is inconclusive to say the least. To reiterate an old joke by national accountants: Only the nominal is real. When it comes to the reign of Chaves (say 1999-2012), however, the story is quite similar regardless of whether you use current or constant PPP international dollars. Nevertheless, they do give a different longer term picture of economic development and context about the starting situation of his reign … and only one of them captures the fact that Venezuela's economy has been in a long-term decline since the late 1970s. That phenomenon is particularly well described in a book edited by Hausmann & Rodrígues: Venezuela Before Chávez – Anatomy of an Economic Collapse. That (longer) trend is also captured by using GDP per capita at constant domestic currency. And, I would argue, also by the standard nominal one for an international context and for countries overly dependent on foreign imports, i.e. current prices at U.S. dollars. So, the different measures using IMF data: ![]() And: ![]() |
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#227 |
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1991-2003
Although I must admit making sense of Venezuela is quite hard. (For example it had similar GDP as Colombia and similar changes...) I suggest it is quite good idea to contrast Venezuela to Colombia and Saudi Arabia and using other data then per-capita. (Interestingly, your two graphs are only per-capita...) |
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#228 |
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Well, sure, other data is paramount for a proper assessment. But there's nothing inherently wrong with first using per capita data and evaluate which nominal/index measure in that category appears appropriate for the particular country in question. Comparisons between countries are trickier, especially if the motive nonetheless is to evaluate the impact of a single localized tenure like Chávez's. That can't properly be done without first having an idea of the prior economic evolution and institutional and structural path dependence in Venezuela.
So, I agree with Naím's remark with regards to the aforementioned book I alluded to in #226:
Originally Posted by J. Naím
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#229 |
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Originally Posted by lupus_in_fabula
You started your puerile attempts at manipulation with this post of yours: trying to suggest by induced inference that somewhat the standard of living had raised dramatically during Chávez' "reign" -as you called it-. Of course you don't have the slightest notion of what you are talking about in these economics matters and took whatever you found favourable to push your lie: a value reported by the Venezuelan regime and expressed in an alien currency. And before you continue to add more lies over your old one, the kind of measure you used has the purpose of comparing one country with other, and not comparing one country with itself. It also expresses the financial stand of that country. You're probably going to ignore all of this -or quote small parts of this in order to distort them -, but you also projected your own surprise in this post of yours. Yes, if you want to learn something instead of lying your way, you have GDP per capita in current dollars and in international dollars (or ppp). Still being wrong, you should have used the last for your fake comparison. The naked truth is that when you want to show how a country's economy evolves you don't use GDP per capita expressed in current values nor in foreign currencies, not even when purchase parity is used. The only valid measure is GDP per capita in national currency and expressed in constant values. And for that you have the economic growth of the country which is expressed once the national account system is informed by the Central Bank and its deflator for the period is applied. That is what the IMF does and the central authority in Venezuela can't lie its way around -like you tried to do here- because the IMF partially audits their aggregates the same way I audit your posts here. But you learnt nothing, and the only thing you tried to comment was these:
Originally Posted by lupus_in_fabula
And I add now: as I already explained the GDP per capita didn't vary from 2012 to 2013 But the second one is a jewel. You can't be so gullible nor so blinded by the declaration of principles of trolling so masterly expressed in your own signature -badly disguised on purpose-, as to not realizing that the GDP of a country can't drop from 11.3 to 7.9 from one year to the next. You obviously realized your blunder in using these measures and decided to use a smoke screen to cover it up instead of apologizing for your ignorance. That's the typical attitude of the totalitarian mentality: you had to be right, and from there everything is permissible and all of your mistakes are to be forsaken because you were right in the very beginning. It that department you are not so out of tune with the Chávez-Maduro regime. [to be continued] |
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#230 |
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translation: you don't need econometrics, you just need to fetch econometrics from the IMF database
![]() reality: I did (http://www.internationalskeptics.com...&postcount=174), you didn't. |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#231 |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#232 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
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You were lying when presenting the 4K/12K scenario -and continue to sustain the same lie- by the simple fact that you endorsed fake statistics and presented them in a deceiving way. Anyone can be misguided by their passionate ideas, but by failing to admit what you did, you confirmed your original intentions. Is is that you're unable to understand it or you did but you are still "campaigning", it doesn't really matter. You are still trying to deceive people into believing the Chávez era was a golden one, and that can't be allowed in a forum about scepticism (yet you can support fascism all you want, it's your right)
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#233 |
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#234 |
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imperfecto del subjuntivo
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And still, you fail to compare countries with statistics that are made to compare countries.
The right one is GPD per capita ppp. Let's use the IMF database and compare Venezuela with Colombia.
You don't like to be told you're lying ... so you continue to make "bad choices" with your data ![]() And before you say anything dumb, the $ppp contains mostly Usian inflation, changes in the base of comparison and methodological errors when comparing tradable (like oil prices) and non-tradable sectors. For instance, for the 11038/18000 rise, 14.6% is the growth I already mentioned in post #174. The remaining 42.2% is mostly inflation in the USA (The US deflator for 1999 was 79.099 and for 2012 it was 103.945, that is a 31.4% increase) |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#236 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#237 |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#238 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
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How gullible do you think people are? Are you trying to convince someone that your 4k/12k post was to show anything but Chávez success?
It doesn't matter the way you present it. You're now trying to show Chávez' time to be a mildly successful period in the middle of a long term failure. Besides your use of the Dutch disease is a bit wobbly when you face the fact the Venezuela has had a permanent problem with her foreign debt and she was one of the most important oil producers before the period you mention. The problem looks more like public spending. Not much of a Dutch disease when you compare the case with Chile and her copper. It looks like Chile is being pretty well managed by both conservative leaning and socialist leaning governments which alternate in power. |
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it. |
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#239 |
Penultimate Amazing
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This squabble about the GDP statistics is pointless.
You don't need GDP figures to know that Venezuela is a catastrophe. Countries which are doing well don't produce refugee crises. And the disaster is not due to the fall in oil prices. Oil prices are above where they were when Chavez took office. Chavez destroyed Venezuela, not bad luck, not saboteurs, not Bush or Obama or Trump, not any of the other countless excuses Maduro will come up with. That's the heart of the matter. |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#240 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,608
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN
Furthermore, it seem the oil producing sector is idiosyncratic enough to make it even far less likely to transmit positive carry over to other high value-added industrial export sectors, as documented by Hausmann & Rodriguez:
Quote:
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